World Powers Press Iran On Nuclear Issues

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MELISSA BLOCK, host:

Talks about Iran's nuclear program got underway in Geneva today. Six major world powers are sitting down with Iranian delegation to discuss Iran's nuclear ambitions. And it's surely no coincidence that the day before the talks began, Iran announced that it has successfully produced uranium concentrate, or yellow cake, from ore mined inside Iran.

Leonard Spector joins us to talk about that development and the agenda for the talks. He's with the Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Welcome to the program.

Dr. LEONARD SPECTOR (Deputy Director, Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies): Well, thank you very much.

BLOCK: And explain for us, if you could, the significance of yellow cake for uranium enrichment and how big a deal this development is.

Dr. SPECTOR: The yellow cake is sort of the initial refined product that you get as you take ore out of the ground and do the first processing step. It then needs to be processed further to go into the enrichment plant, where it can be upgraded to use in nuclear power plants as fuel or conceivably in nuclear weapons.

The Iranians have had this capability for some time, as I understand it. This may be the first time that theyve actually tried to introduce the yellow cake into the whole nuclear fuel cycle, rather than using imported material. So there may be a slight shift in the strategy but I dont see this as major development.

BLOCK: Not a major development. Iran's nuclear chief said after - in announcing this: Iran has become self-sufficient in the entire fuel cycle. Are they in fact self-sufficient?

Dr. SPECTOR: I think that depends on what you are watching for. If you're saying is it conceivable that using only indigenous materials and equipment, Iran could take uranium out of the ground and conceivably build nuclear weapons - they're getting pretty close if they haven't actually achieved that.

On the other hand, they may have this at a very low level, very limited quantities. They're having trouble with certain parts of the fuel cycle. The conversion plant, the next phase after you have yellow cake, has been facing a lot of troubles and its sort of operations are suspended. The enrichment program has been having difficulties.

So in one level, they may have the right to assert that they have technical capability at every step along the way. Whether they can get it all to work, and to what level they can get it to work, I think remains very unclear. And certainly they do not have enough for a nuclear energy program.

BLOCK: Before these talks began, Secretary of State Clinton said Iran should come prepared to firmly, conclusively reject the pursuit of nuclear weapons. From Iran's side, Iran says it doesnt even think it should have to discuss this enrichment program that we're talking about. What would you reasonably expect to come out of these meetings in Geneva?

Dr. SPECTOR: Well, I'd say...

(Soundbite of laughter)

Dr. SPECTOR: ...I suppose reasonably, we shouldnt expect too much. If I were to give you a very hopeful scenario, it would be that a deal that had been concluded about a year ago in which certain low-enriched uranium would be removed from Iran, improved externally and then returned to the Tehran research reactor - that some variant of that deal which Ahmadinejad accepted, but then was rejected by other leading players in Iran - that that deal might come to fruition in some fashion.

I think thats the high-end of what the U.S. government is imagining. But I dont think it's very sanguine that we will even get that. And, of course, thats just a starting point, a confidence-building measure. It really doesnt deal with the core problem, which is the enrichment of uranium to, you know, levels that could eventually reach weapon grade.

BLOCK: There are also a couple of factors overshadowing these talks, recent factors. One being the WikiLeaks revelations about Persian Gulf leaders saying they have great concerned about Iran's nuclear program, urging U.S. military action. We had Saudi King Abdullah reportedly urging the U.S. to: Cut off the head of the snake. How would you expect Iran to respond to talk like that?

Dr. SPECTOR: Well, I think they observe themselves increasingly isolated. You know, normally they wouldnt have to hear this outright. They can imagine that thats whats going on because of some the chill thats in the relationships between Iran and some of these other countries.

But to see it in black and white, so to speak, and to know very specifically that there is this orientation toward perhaps more violent response to the Iranian program, you know, I think that must be giving them pause. They are now getting into a deeper and deeper hole, and they may realize that the situation is becoming more and more troublesome and dire.

BLOCK: I've been talking with Leonard Spector. He's deputy director of the Monterey Institute's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Mr. Spector, thanks so much.

Dr. SPECTOR: Thank you.

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