What Mubarak's Resignation Means For The Region

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MELISSA BLOCK, host:

Now we're joined by former U.S. ambassador to Egypt, Daniel Kurtzer, who was late the U.S. ambassador to Israel. Welcome to the program.

Dr. DANIEL KURTZER (Former U.S. Ambassador, Egypt and Israel): Hi, Melissa.

BLOCK: And Ambassador Kurtzer, based on what you know of Egypt's military, how confident that the military will eventually yield - hopefully quickly - to civilian rule?

Dr. KURTZER: Well, it's a big mystery. This is a military whose senior leadership has largely been made by Hosni Mubarak over the past 30 years. We don't know much at all about the mid level officers, lieutenant on up to perhaps major. And then there's the large mass of conscripts on whom the military has to rely, but clearly didn't trust if an order had been given to shoot.

So this is a military that's very uncertain about what next steps need to be taken, and will proceed very cautiously.

BLOCK: And if it were to lift emergency law, how big a step would that be?

Dr. KURTZER: Well, I think it has to lift emergency law almost immediately to have any credibility with the opposition. And once it does so, it will be a huge psychological lift.

That said, the real test of the military's options will be in two areas. One, the degree to which it takes serious steps to create political space for the opposition. And the other, the degree to which it really can control the internal security forces under the Ministry of Interior. Those are really the hated people who carried out these emergency laws and acted without due process. And thats going to be a tough bill to fulfill over the period ahead.

BLOCK: I'd like to get your take on how the Obama administration handled this, in terms of walking the line between, on the one hand, promoting democratic change; and on the other, not wanting a strong U.S. imprint on anything that would happen there?

Dr. KURTZER: Well, I think the administration did about as well as could be expected under these circumstances. I say that for two reasons. Number one, we do have interests that straddle both stability in Egypt and change in Egypt. We have benefited greatly and the region has benefited greatly from the 30-year relationship that we've had with Egypt. At the same time, we do have values that we hold very dearly of democracy, freedom and openness.

And the administration, I think, with a little zigzagging here and there, ended up both in its public diplomacy but also in the private messages it was sending, adhering to a line that I think is sustainable.

It's not going to get easier as the days go on, because the military in Egypt, until now - which has been in a kind of broker role - is now one of the main subjects of this drama. And it's going to be a little bit tougher to find the right place to be in which you're supporting democracy, but also upholding the relationship that we've established with that country.

BLOCK: And briefly, Ambassador Kurtzer, since you also were ambassador to Israel. How concerned should Israel be right now about what comes next in Egypt?

Dr. KURTZER: Well, they've had a number of concerns not only related to Egypt: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, uncertainty about domestic prospects in Jordan. I think even though President Mubarak has stepped down and the Israelis tended to see him as a force of stability, the role of the army is going to give the Israelis some confidence that the treaty and the relationship with Egypt will be sustained.

BLOCK: Daniel Kurtzer, former U.S. ambassador to Egypt and then to Israel, thanks very much.

Dr. KURTZER: Okay, a pleasure.

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