by Omar Gallaga

If the only story you read about Tuesday's bombshell Google announcement that it is releasing an operating system next year was this very odd New York Times piece, you might already be convinced that Google will win an OS war in which it hasn't even begun to compete.

Lost among the breathless predictions of a shift in the PC market in the article is that Google's "Chrome" operating system — which will expand its browser to be brains of smaller netbook computers — won't compete against Microsoft and Apple on high-end PCs or workstations (so much for that IBM/Sun comparison) and that the Chrome OS won't be out until the second half of next year. That's an eternity in computer industry time; the landscape could change significantly in the time it takes for Chrome OS to get here.

I have a feeling the demand for netbooks — smaller, underpowered laptops designed primarily for Web surfing — might wane by this time next year, especially if Apple or some other innovator releases a better product that fills the middle space between full-powered laptops and increasingly powerful smartphones. A keyboard-less tablet with 3G Internet built-in? A super-compact laptop without all the performance of a larger PC? Maybe something like that.

Another thing that may work against Google's favor is that based on what we've seen with its Android phone platform, the Big G is not infallible when it comes to getting hardware partners to jump on board. It's been eight months since the first Android-based phone was released and we're only now starting to see others hit the market. I imagine Chrome OS will be similarly slow to take off and be embraced.

For an even more level-headed analysis of what might happen, check out Peter Glaskowsky's more sober take on Google strategy, posted on CNet.com. He raises some great points; this is a new, tough battle for Google and one that's not automatically theirs to win.

The bottom line is that Chrome OS is a long way off and may be late to the party, especially if netbooks fall out of vogue by the time it arrives. Stay tuned.

Further reading: NPR's story on the Google OS announcement.