World Series, Game 2: Momentum Means Nothing

Special from Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus:

The 1996 Atlanta Braves. The 1982 Milwaukee Brewers. The 1959 Chicago White Sox. What do these teams have in common? They won a blowout in the first game of the World Series, beating their opponent by at least 10 runs. Before last night, in fact, when the Boston Red Sox defeated the Colorado Rockies 13-1 — their 12-run margin is the largest ever in Game One — these were the only three teams in history to win the first game of the World Series by a double-digit margin.

What else do these teams have in common? In spite of having a victory in hand, they all lost the World Series. The Braves shut out the Yankees in Game Two, and took the series back to Atlanta ahead two games to nil — then proceed to drop four straight to give the Joe Torre the first of his four titles. The Brewers, who had also won Game One on the road, lost in seven games in a see-saw battle with the St. Louis Cardinals. And the White Sox would be upended by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

Even if we expand the definition of a 'blowout' to include all games in which the scoring run was five runs or more, the track record of teams that won a decisive Game One victory is mixed at best, with 10 World Series titles against nine defeats. By contrast, teams that won Game One by a small margin — four runs or fewer — had a more distinct advantage, recording 52 victories against 30 defeats.

Does this mean that you should phone your bookie and place a large sum on the Rockies? Hardly. It is hard to see how winning a blowout can be disadvantageous (although it may allow the opponent to rest the best arms in its bullpen if the blowout comes early). Nevertheless, this does remind us of a couple things.

First, one of baseball's most fundamental truisms is that any team can look awful — or great — on any given day. The 1961 New York Yankees, often regarded as the best team in history, twice lost to the lowly Washington Senators by as 12-2 margin, a team that went on to lose 100 ballgames. The 1962 New York Mets, on the other hand, often regarded as the worst team in history, nevertheless won games by margins of 13-2, 8-0, 9-1, and 10-3.

More importantly, momentum is something that matters is physics and politics — but not baseball. Just as the Rockies' 21-1 record over their previous 22 games did them absolutely no good in Game One, so too the embarrassing margin of defeat should give them nothing to worry about. The Red Sox will probably win this series because they have a game in hand and are the more talented ball club — but it won't be because of momentum.

— Nate Silver, Baseball Prospectus