The Stump

Republican Chances To Take House Rise Slightly: Nate Silver

We're heading toward the gun lap of the campaigns leading to the mid-term elections and the situation still looks pretty rosy for House Republicans in their quest to take the majority.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight writes:

The latest FiveThirtyEight projection for the House of Representatives shows little overall change from our previous update, released this weekend, but the Republican position has improved slightly. They are now given a 75 percent chance of winning the House on Nov. 2, up from 73 percent previously. During an average simulation run, the Republicans finished with a total of 228 seats (up from 227): this would reflect a net gain of 49 seats from their current position.

But Silver is no one-handed economist, to invoke Harry Truman's image. He says there's another side, the great unknown. So many of the races are competitive which, theoretically, could in the end find Democrats hanging on by their fingernails to their majority.

As I have warned repeatedly in the past, we believe that the uncertainty in the forecast is intrinsically quite high, stemming from the unusually large number of seats in play, and from differences of opinion among pollsters in how to calibrate their likely voter models to account for the so-called “enthusiasm gap.”

Still, a 75-percent chance of winning are odds most people would gladly take.

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