Power Centers

Charlie Cook Foresees Democrats As House Minority Past 2012

Charlie Cook, the highly regarded analyst of congressional races, has bad news for House Democrats; their time in the minority won't likely end in 2012.

From a short video on the National Journal web site:

I would be surprised if either party picked up or lost more than 10 seats, something like that. Democrats need a 25 seat net gain to get their majority back in the House. And I think that's awfully hard. They may pick up five or 10; they may lose five or 10. I don't see a lot of change in the House of Representatives right now.

More likely is that the redistricting that emerges from the decennial census will change sometimes significantly the makeup of a lawmaker's constituency.

Some Democrats will find themselves with more blacks and Hispanics as constituents while some Republicans may have more Democrats in their reshaped districts, Cook said.

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