by Daniel Costello

The U.S. unemployment rate was 6.1percent in September. Everyone expects that number to keep rising, but few agree on how much. The biggest pessimists worry one out of 10 Americans could be out of work in the near future. That would be baaaad.

The jobless rate hit just under 9 percent in the 1974 recession and hit 10.2 percent in 1982. That level is higher than it had been since WWII and has never been surpassed since then.

Here's a breakdown of how the jobless rate could really climb, industry by industry. Hard to believe how upbeat the economy looked just a year ago.