by Laura Conaway

I've been thinking about starting a category just for sunny news — because occasionally, there is some. Today, Simon Johnson of Baseline Scenario suggested the name "Green Shoots." And now, economics professor Joe Cavanaugh of Wright State University in Celina, Ohio, has sent the first entry:

You always bring up the bad news but here is a some good news brought on by the recession — kind of.

15.86 is the percentage change in enrollment at our campus this past year. The enrollment in higher education runs countercyclical so, as has happened in past recessions, the lower GDP the higher our enrollment.

 

For example during the recession in 2001, when GDP was only .8%, our enrollment was up by 12.41%. There are a number of reasons for this including students being retrained following layoffs, closings, and forced early retirements. The biggest reason is probably that not as many well paying jobs are available for recent high school graduates. Staying in school is something that will increase their potential to land a better paying job once the economy improves.

Unfortunately, the opposite effect also often takes place. When GDP was up over 3.5% in 2004 our enrollment was -11.14%.