Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics notes this morning that January housing starts jumped by 22 percent. The 583,000 starts far outpaced economists' expectation of 450,000. Shepherdson's not over the moon about it, but still writes:

The leap in starts was propelled by an 82.3% surge in activity in the multi-family sector, reversing almost all the drop in starts over the previous three months. We see no specific factor that might explain this jump; multi-family starts are always noisy but this is exceptional.
Single-family starts and permits both rose too, by 1.1% and 11.0% respectively, after a run of double-digit declines in recent months. With new home sales still falling and the months supply at a record there is no reason for homebuilding to rise. This is a temporary rebound, not a recovery, though it likely means the post-Lehman crash is over.

Emphasis mine. I like the idea that some part, any part, of the crash might be behind us now.

categories: Green Shoots

9:02 - March 17, 2009

What is this?

Share