by Mathew Katz


The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped today to 46.6 from 49.3. It's the index's second monthly drop in a row, and July's plunge was greater than economists had forecast. This month's reading is not nearly as bad as February's record low of 25.3, but it doesn't line up with some of the better-ish indicators we've been seeing lately.

Still, it does make a certain degree of sense. Brighter GDP forecasts and rising house prices aside, most people base their opinions of the economy on their own income and job security. You're not likely to feel confident in your prospects — or buy a big-screen TV — when you're in danger of being laid off. And with the Fed predicting 10 percent unemployment by the year's end, consumers have little reason to be optimistic about their economic situations, or to get out there and spend.