On average, things are looking better — if not yet good.
New claims for unemployment insurance rose by 25,000 last week, seasonally adjusted. The Department of Labor says its formula for calculating the report has come back in line with what's actually happening out there. We've been flying blind for a few weeks now, owing to the auto industry laying off people this spring instead of in July. The DoL says the past few reports have been artificially low.
Continuing claims, still affected by the skewed formula, fell 54,000 to 6.197 million in week ending July 18. That's the lowest level since April. Tune in next week for a clearer view.
Meanwhile, and for whatever it's worth, the four-week moving average continues its very slow descent toward normal, dropping by 8,250. Economist Ian "First to Your Inbox" Shepherdson predicts another rise in the weekly figures next week: "[T]he claims numbers are yet another example of economic data which are less bad than a few months ago but which are still terrible."
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