By Laura Conaway

Daniel Gross sees the signs. In a Newsweek article titled "The Recession Is Over," he reels off a list of positive-ish numbers from the economy, then adds:

[T]he data point that means the most to our psychological well-being--unemployment--is likely to keep climbing. The loss of 6.5 million jobs since December 2007 has spurred the sharpest rise in the unemployment rate since the 1930s. As manufacturing jobs move overseas and companies struggle to further reduce costs, unemployment--which stands at 9.5 percent--is likely to rise above 10 percent.

Thanks to our national debt and growing workforce, Gross writes, the U.S. economy needs to grow at 1.5 percent a year just to keep up. Notable pessimist Nouriel Roubini tells Gross we're looking at 1 percent growth for a while -- that would take us out of the recession but not out of the woods. Gross:

To a large degree, the U.S. economy must now cope with an era of lower expectations. Road building isn't a recipe for full employment, green technology won't displace fossil fuels in this decade, the benefits of universal broadband may be overblown, and the dysfunctional health-care system won't shift overnight from a headwind to a tailwind. The recession may be over, but there's likely to be plenty of tough slogging ahead.

Anyone want me to file this one under Green Shoots? Just asking.

categories: News

12:32 - July 27, 2009

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