by Laura Conaway

New claims for unemployment insurance.
Source: Department of Labor

Still falling.

New claims for unemployment insurance fell last week to 550,000, down 38,000 from the week before, the Department of Labor reports. The four-week moving averge was down 4,750 — less than the average weekly decline of 6,077 from April 25 to July 25, but still lower.

The improvement surprised bearish economist Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics, who writes:

Labor officials appear not to have identified any specific factors pushing claims down, but that does not mean we can assume 550K is the new trend; the numbers are volatile even when the trend is clear, and we need to see several more weeks at this level to confirm a real shift. Still, this number certainly looks good relative to the pre-auto chaos trend of about 615K.

For much of July, the Department of Labor said it couldn't properly calculate the number of new claims because the usual summer layoffs in the auto industry had happened in the spring.

Today's report shows the number of people on unemployment benefits hit a record high, at 9.35 million. We're seeing fewer people losing their jobs, even as those laid-off still struggle to find new ones.