By Laura Conaway

The Conference Board, home of the Consumer Confidence Index, says it sees brighter times ahead. Its Leading Economic Index rose in August for the fifth straight month.

The index purports to look ahead by six to nine months. Last month it climbed 0.6 percent to 102.5, the highest level since January 2008. From Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein:

"This suggests that the recession is bottoming out. These numbers are consistent with the view that after a severe downturn, a recovery is very near. But the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain."

Before the recent run of upticks, the Leading Economic Index had fallen for 20 months in a row -- the longest sustained fall since the 1970s recession. After the jump, what an equation will get you.

Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics writes:

In the past three months the index has jumped at an 11.7% annualized rate, compared to the previous three months. In theory this is consistent with quarterly GDP growth in excess of 10%, but we are confident that is not going to happen anytime soon. Still, it's welcome.

categories: Forecasts

10:10 - September 21, 2009

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