Economists in a new Wall Street Journal survey (subs. requ'd.) say the labor market should start adding jobs within the next 12 months but that unemployment will keep growing into 2010. From the WSJ:
"We are in a technical recovery, but risks remain abundant," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial. "It will still take some luck and skill to get Main Street to feel some of the relief Wall Street has felt."
You can say that again. The survey includes 51 economists, 41 of whom say the recession is over and the recovery has begun. Their average prediction for the peak of unemployment is 10.2 percent. It was at 9.7 percent in August, and the economists say it will likely be 9.3 percent at the end of 2010.