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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

By Caitlin Kenney

Our editor, Uri Berliner, passes along this WSJ (sub req.'d) piece about Paul Krugman's view on international trade. The key bit:

"When it comes to international trade, actually it's not the Great Depression, it's worse," he said, presenting charts showing the decline in global trade activity falling much more steeply in the current downturn than during the Depression.
"The scale of the collapse of world trade has been so large that it has produced a degree of international linkage that surpasses what even the pessimists imagined," he said. "World trade acted as a transmission mechanism," spreading economic distress "even to those countries that had relatively healthy financial systems," such as Germany.

The U.S. Commerce Department today launched an investigation that could lead to tariffs on imports of steel pipes from China. Krugman says protectionism is one thing he isn't worried about. He said the tire tariffs imposed on China "aren't really a big deal."

categories: Trade

4:31 - October 7, 2009

 
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
U.S. Trade Balance

The U.S. trade deficit dipped as the recession set in. (Source: U.S. Commerce Department)


By Laura Conaway

The U.S. trade deficit rose less than expected in June, to $27 billion from $26 billion, the Commerce Department reports. Economists had predicted it would rise to $28.7 billion.

The trade deficit measures the difference between the dollar value of goods the U.S. buys from other countries and the dollar value of the goods it sells to other countries. The jump of just 4 percent in June reflects a bump of more than 2 percent in non-oil exports as demand for American products increased just a bit. Among the sectors selling more was the automotive industry. Exports of consumer goods, the more daily stuff people buy, were flat.

Imports rose 2.3 percent, and most of that was due to the higher price of oil. Prices for oil -- and food -- tend to rise and fall more rapidly than for other goods, so economists often separate them out of their calculations. Consumer will feel the difference in their wallets, even though oil and food may not be helpful in understanding the overhaul situation.

Continue reading "U.S. Trade Gap Widens Less, And For Once It's (Mildly) Good News" >

categories: Trade

9:56 - August 12, 2009

 
Monday, August 10, 2009
World trade in the current recession.

"The big elephant in the room." (Carl Weinberg/High Frequency Economics)

By Laura Conaway

Right in the middle of last week's data-lanche on unemployment, Marc Chandler of the Brown Brothers Harriman currency group called for a breath. "There is another development, though, that should not be lost in the shuffle," he wrote in one of his regular notes. "During the economic downturn, trade fell more than industrial output, which collapsed."

The chart above shows that we're living through the only major, sustained fall in global trade since 1970. Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics notes that French exports are down 18.7 percent, after a 24.7 percent year-over-year decline just a couple of months back. Monthly reports on German exports document declines of 24.8 percent and 29 percent. Australia, which has been feasting on its export economy, is down 14.7 percent.

"Behind each story lies a catastrophic decline in gross exports," Weinberg writes. The IMF data on exports track a 36 percent fall from the peak of $1.5 trillion in July 2008. "We have never experienced anything like this in our lifetimes. Neither, quite frankly, did we ever think we would."

categories: Trade

3:52 - August 10, 2009

 
Monday, July 6, 2009
American Flag Made in China

Cheaper. Rick Alfaro

 

When countries put up barriers to free trade, bad things tend to happen. That's a long-held tenet of economics: protectionism is harmful. You've heard it recently from economists on Planet Money, and now the message comes again, from the World Bank. Reuters reports on remarks by World Bank president Robert Zoellick, who spoke at a World Trade Organization conference.

"High-income countries have used subsidies for troubled industries, while low-income countries are using selective increases in border barriers," Zoellick said. "These trends could easily spin out of control in coming months as unemployment rises and one country feels compelled to respond tit-for-tat to the policies of another."

Continue reading "World Bank: Free Trade, Please" >

categories: Trade

9:42 - July 6, 2009

 

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