Emmy Preview: Jeremy Piven Is Inevitable, But So is Jon Hamm

Lead Actor, Comedy

Just like Lead Actress in a Comedy, this category is not crowded, simply owing to the fact that it's not a boom time for comedies like it is for dramas. There just aren't that many guys clawing for these six nominations, and there are even fewer who have realistic hopes.

Alec Baldwin: Obviously. Steve Carell: Definitely. Tony Shalhoub: Given that he's been nominated every year since 2003, you'd think so. Charlie Sheen: Probably. So that leaves two.

There seems to be a growing consensus that Jim Parsons is likely to be nominated for The Big Bang Theory, which, as we discussed on Monday, is one of the few comedies that seems to have some spark of life at the moment. Even people who dislike that show often like Parsons in it (that was my reaction to the pilot back when the show started — I hated it, but thought he was by far the least bad thing about it), so it certainly seems plausible.

Lee Pace was nominated last year for Pushing Daisies, but that show slipped so far under the radar this year — and since it's canceled, it no longer has the "root root root" factor that may have led people to support Pace as a way to support the show — that a nomination for him would really surprise me.

If the two guys from Flight Of The Conchords, Jemaine Clement and Bret McKenzie, could be nominated as a pair, they might be a good pick, but I'm not sure there's enough momentum behind either of them individually.

Zach Braff? Eh, maybe. Zachary Levi in Chuck? Ideally, yes. Realistically, no. No, the most likely outcome, to me, is David Duchovny for Californication. Not a very exciting nomination, but a pretty safe one.

Actors in dramas, after the jump...

 

Lead Actor, Drama

In a particularly interesting development, six guys were nominated in this category last year (possible with close voting), and all six seem like perfectly plausible comebacks: Jon Hamm of Mad Men, Bryan Cranston of Breaking Bad, Hugh Laurie of House, Michael C. Hall of Dexter, James Spader of Boston Legal, and Gabriel Byrne of In Treatment.

It is entirely possible that precisely the same six guys could be nominated this year. Deadwood vet Ian McShane showed up for a few episodes in Kings, but that's a short run; who's he going to shove out? Simon Baker did a nice job making The Mentalist an actually successful new show, but the existing list is so packed with actual quality as well as seeming inevitability that that's not going to be enough.

Most of the other guys who are entirely reasonable choices — Kiefer Sutherland, Denis Leary, Michael Chiklis — all lost out to these same six guys last year. [Ed. Note: Wrong! As has now been pointed out, Sutherland wasn't eligible last year, because of the missed season from the writers' strike. Very fair to point out that he didn't miss the cut; he wasn't in the mix. Apologies. —LAH]

There could certainly be a little juggling, of the "Chiklis in, Hall out" variety, but this is almost certainly going to shape up as an almost exact replica of last year's race. There are a lot of guys here who are good, but it's going to be tough to sneak past the previous field — and unlike the other categories, this wasn't a five-person race that absolutely has to let a new guy in.

Supporting Actor, Comedy

Let us get this over with: Jeremy Piven, Entourage. Once again, he will undoubtedly face off against Neil Patrick Harris. Oh, and Two And A Half Men's Jon Cryer, who's been nominated three years in a row.

You'll probably see Rainn Wilson again, too, unless somebody sneaks past him from his own show, like Ed Helms or John Krasinski, who wrapped up the season with a dynamite episode.

Entourage has also brought Kevin Dillon a nomination for the last two years, but if there's going to be an Entourage deceleration, it will start right around here, and not with the more formidable (for some reason) Piven.

So, what, one or two spots left? The guys from 30 Rock never get nominated in this category, but neither Tracy Morgan nor (I actually think this is more likely) Jack McBrayer would be a surprise. There's not an obvious candidate for the sixth spot, but there's some potential for something satisfying to come of it.

(I have to mention that I carefully didn't read the Hitfix take on this topic until after I'd written this, but the bottom-line prediction is eerily similar.)

Supporting Actor, Drama

As I discussed yesterday with actresses, Supporting Actor In A Drama is a really hard category, simply because there are a gazillion possibilities, and it's hard to even begin to narrow them down.

Let's start with last year: Zeljko Ivanek won for Damages. That's not going to be repeated. (Um, spoiler.)

Last year's other nominees: William Shatner, who will undoubtedly be nominated one final time for Boston Legal. Michael Emerson, who certainly deserves to be nominated again for Lost (although you could also easily see another nominee from that show — maybe Jeremy Davies). Ted Danson for Damages: N/A. And John Slattery for Mad Men, who would be a worthy nominee in any field.

So we've got at least a couple of spots left — maybe as many as three. 'Where to start? With two guys out on Damages, other guys are in — William Hurt for one, and he's no stranger to the awards scene, certainly. Timothy Olyphant for another.

It could be a year for a Grey's Anatomy nomination — after all, T.R. Knight was nominated a couple of years ago. Knight had little going on this year, but Justin Chambers was terrific, and contributed most of what worked about the Izzie/cancer/ghost story. He's sort of playing The Hot Himbo, which can make it tough to get recognized, but he was very good this year, and would be deserving.

Big Love has a couple of big guns in this category in Bruce Dern and Harry Dean Stanton; they make for decent guesses. John Mahoney arrived on In Treatment this season, and he's got two nominations from the Frasier era.

This category (and its Actress counterpart) are the ones where I'm most convinced I will completely miss a nominee, so feel free to tell me who you think it is.