Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson in Mad Men.
AMC

Elisabeth Moss, who plays Peggy Olson on Mad Men, is just one of our predicted winners who probably won't pan out.

As you know, the Emmys will be here on Sunday night, and I'll be covering them live with the help of Joe Reid (who has written for Monkey See, works at SOAPnet, and was my dear pal and colleague at Television Without Pity) and Marc Hirsh (who writes in a couple of capacities here at NPR and writes regularly at The Boston Globe). We are all very opinionated. It should be fun. We'll be getting underway at 7:30 p.m., ahead of the ceremony at 8:00.

But if you can't wait that long and you want to know what will happen, I will do my best to tell you, with the understanding that my prognosticating abilities are notoriously sketchy, as are everyone else's. That's why you should add your own predictions in the comments; it's possible that we can reach some kind of consensus that will approach reality. (Dare to dream, and so forth.) Follow along with the nominations here, using the handy dropdown menus.

Outstanding Drama Series: I see Mad Men repeating here. I think the most likely upset is Breaking Bad (AMC's other prestige show), which could sneak past exactly the same way Bryan Cranston grabbed last year's Outstanding Actor In A Drama trophy that I think 99 percent of pundits thought Jon Hamm was a cinch to take home. Dark horse: Big Love, which has been gaining in critical appreciation and has what is, by all accounts, an outstanding and huge cast.

Lots more, after the jump...

 

Outstanding Comedy Series: I think a 30 Rock win (again) is certainly possible. But The Office had an outstanding season, and at some point, people will stop giving everything in the room to Tina Fey. My guess would be one of those two, with a longshot bet for Weeds, if they decide to go all edgy.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy: I love Alec Baldwin and would never put down money against him, but to me, this is Steve Carell's year to win this award. It's his fourth nomination, he's never won, and this year's exploration of Michael Scott's romance with Holly Flax (Amy Ryan), as well as his startup, the Michael Scott Paper Company, gave him material as rich as any he's had. He should win, and he actually might win, I think. If Tony Shalhoub wins for Monk, listen for me screaming.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy: Yes, in your office pool, put down "Tina Fey." But if she gets bumped, I'd think it would be by Toni Collette, who's multiple-personalities role on Showtime's The United States Of Tara couldn't be more Emmy-baiting. She's a movie actress, it's on cable, and did we mention she has multiple personalities?

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama: I'm going with either Cranston or Hamm here. You might see Gabriel Byrne of HBO's In Treatment if they're feeling tricky, but my top two picks, in order, are Jon Hamm and Bryan Cranston.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama: These are mostly often-nominated actresses who have been kicking around award shows since the invention of the wheel: Holly Hunter, Kyra Sedgwick, Sally Field, Glenn Close, Mariska Hargitay. And then there's Elisabeth Moss, who plays a genuinely unique character on Mad Men, knocked a couple of critical scenes absolutely out of the park, and might represent for the show if Hamm doesn't. I'm feeling a Moss victory, although this is exactly the kind of category where I get myself all excited, and then it's Sally Field again.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy: Neil Patrick Harris all the way. He's hosting, he's never been more popular, and Jeremy Piven isn't nominated. He will get strong competition from Tracy Morgan and Jack McBrayer from 30 Rock, but they may do a little vote-splitting from 30 Rock partisans. I'm really hoping this is NPH's year, and I think it actually will be.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy: This is a really interesting category, when you look at it closely. You have Kristen Chenoweth, from Pushing Daisies, which not a lot of people watched. (Sorry, Pushing Daisies people; I'm not defending it, but it's true.) You have Elizabeth Perkins from Weeds, which also not a lot of people watch. There's Jane Krakowski from 30 Rock, but it wasn't a great season for her, and she did a lot of stories that were a little repetitive and heavy. Vanessa Williams could win for Ugly Betty, but she's been playing that role for a while, and I'd say she gets less attention for it now than she used to, not more. After that, it's Kristen Wiig and Amy Poehler for Saturday Night Live. So on balance: Poehler for the win, but it seems like a massive toss-up.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama: Shatner and Christian Clemenson are nominated for Boston Legal, which went off the air last year. My guess? One of those guys, probably Shatner. I wish I thought it would be Michael Emerson from Lost, but I don't. I'm taking Shatner.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama: One of the two women from In Treatment, Dianne Wiest or Hope Davis, will win, I think. It could be Rose Byrne from Damages, but I'd take Dianne Wiest and Hope Davis, in that order.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Show: The Amazing Race has won this award as long as it has existed, despite suffering some ups and downs in quality. It had a decent (though not great) season its last time around, and there were some classic moments (cheese rolling down a hill, anyone?). So it has as good a claim to the award as it has during some of the other years it's won, but all streaks end eventually. It would be politically interesting to give it to Project Runway in light of its changing producers and networks. The populist shows — American Idol and Dancing With The Stars — are, I assume, not going to win, and Top Chef isn't good enough right now, so I'll go with Race. Aaaa-gain.

Outstanding Reality Host: They finally nominated Race's Phil Keoghan, whom I absolutely love, and who is wildly charming and really funny, and if his show has repeatedly won, shouldn't he win, too? In all honesty ... no, because Tom Bergeron, who hosts Dancing With The Stars, is the most underrated host of anything on television, and that's my actual first choice. Race is already a good show; Dancing would be unwatchable if they didn't get the tone of winking exactly right, and Bergeron brings a lot of that. Alas, my guess is that Survivor's Jeff Probst takes it again, as he did last year. Sigh.