NPR: New Poll Slams War, But Some Ask for Closer Look

New Poll Slams War, But Some Ask for Closer Look

Laura Bush was probably tempted to hide this morning's copy of The New York Times from the president. It includes a new opinion poll that shows that ratings for the Iraq war and for President Bush are lower than, as I once heard a comedian put it, a snake's belly in a wagon rut.

According to the New York Times/CBS News poll, Americans now view the war in Iraq more negatively than ever before: "Sixty-one percent of Americans say the United States should have stayed out of Iraq and 76 percent say things are going badly there, including 47 percent who say things are going very badly, the poll found." President Bush's approval rating (30 percent) looks more like the temperature on a cold day in December.

But two other statistics have Ed Morrissey of Captain's Quarters questioning whether we should throw out the entire poll. If Americans are so opposed to the war in Iraq, Morrissey wonders, then why are 69 percent still open to the idea of continued funding for it if the Iraqi government meets certain goals and deadlines? He also questions why Congress, which in two other recent polls scored lower than Bush on the approval meter, is suddenly six points in front.

Morrissey says he knows the president and the war are unpopular, but he would like to get a look at the poll's sample to see if that provides any answers. It's not included in the Times or CBS news stories about the poll online. Morrissey refers to the comments of a panel of professional analysts at a recent Online News Association conference, who said that if people aren't willing to show you the methodology behind their work, you should reject it.

It's a good principle, but after a little digging, I did find the sample information on the CBS News site. (It would have been nice if the Times Web site also had included a link to it.) Morrissey has a point about who was sampled (there are quite a few more Democrats than Republicans), but I think this means the poll gets to stay.

9:39 AM ET | 05-25-2007 | permalink

Comments (Send a comment)

Re: Poll's validity
While I wasn't part of the sample, the results reflect my beliefs. We should NOT have gone in (I was part of the minority four years ago when I thought that), and things are going VERY badly. Yet, to simply cut off funding and leave, after stirring up this hornets nest, would be an act of irresponsibility matched only by the original invasion.

And of course as everyone who has taken statistics or done polling knows, if "I" agree with the results, they must be valid.

Sent by Kathy Schulz | 11:12 AM ET | 05-25-2007

I get where this poll is coming from. The war was a bad idea badly executed. Even though I am in the business of providing foreign assistance and know many people working in Iraq who say it is just a hopeless disaster and that the best thing we can do is to get out, I am still ambivalent about abandoning our shameful mess. I could also see how the Congressional rating could take a bounce up vis-a-vis the president.

Sent by Valerie Wright | 1:30 PM ET | 05-25-2007

Jeez. Talk about "balance" ("Studies Show Earth Is Spherical, But Some Call for a Closer Look").

A right-wing blogger gets cited to "balance" a professionally-conducted poll sponsored by two major news organizations?

I'm quite certain its results don't match his gut intuitions about the mood of the American people, given his long self-marination in right-wing radio, TV, and Internet sources. (They *must* basically support the war, and not like the Democratic Congress any better than the Republican President!) But the way you find out what the people are thinking is to ask them, not tell them.

Tom, please. Really. This strikes me as ridiculous.

P.S. If it strikes you as a flaw in the poll's methodology that more Democrats than Republicans are sampled, try checking out the proportions of self-identified Democrats (more) and Republicans (fewer) in the overall U.S. population. I guess the people themselves are biased, for not wanting to be Republicans in greater numbers! The sharp decline in Republican identification is another consequence of the Bush years.

Anyway, yes, if a poll artificially pumped up the number of Republicans in the American population, its results would look more friendly to Republican positions. But again, the point of polls is not to manipulate the data until they match your preconceived notions.

Sent by Peter Audrain | 10:29 AM ET | 05-26-2007

Does anyone else wonder why a president with consistently atrocious poll numbers, an immorally, if not illegally spun war, and terrible abuses of the separation of church and state has not been brought up on impeachment charges yet? Don't worry, they should definitely take Cheney with him!

Sent by Victoria | 10:55 AM ET | 05-30-2007

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