Iraq's Sectarian Death Toll Doubles from Last Year

The surge in Iraq is working, according to military and administration officials. Some experts who have visited Iraq also say they see signs of progress. But then again, to paraphrase a former president, it might depend on what your definition of "is" is.

Over the weekend, The Associated Press released some eye-opening figures on the rate of deaths from sectarian violence in Iraq — it's about double last year's rate. The figures — which AP considers conservative and do not include insurgents' deaths — show that Iraq is suffering an average of 62 war-related deaths a day. In 2006, it was 33 a day.

Also, the Iraqi Red Crescent Organization says that, as of the end of July, 1.14 million Iraqis have been displaced by the violence. On Jan. 1 of this year, it was 447,337.

However, the figures do show that Baghdad now accounts for 52 percent of all civilian and police war-related deaths in the country, down from 76 percent in January. What that seems to show is that insurgents and al-Qaida fighters who have been pushed out of Baghdad by the surge are taking their deadly business to other parts of the country. This appears to be particularly the case in the north, where the death toll has risen this year.

Meanwhile, senior U.S. military figures, who insist violence is down, are also warning that we can expect major assaults in the next few weeks because of three factors: the report to Congress on the situation in the country; the start of Ramadan; and the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.

The Political Animal blog offers this comment: The military is "simultaneously trying to suggest that the surge is responsible for the recent seasonal decline in fatalities and preemptively insisting that no one should blame the surge when seasonal deaths go back up in the fall."

I think it's going to be another long fall in Iraq this year.

5:20 PM ET | 08-27-2007 | permalink