NPR: I'll Show You My Iraq Stats If You Show Me Yours

I'll Show You My Iraq Stats If You Show Me Yours

Lies, damn lies and statistics, as the saying goes. I remember my father, who once worked on Parliament Hill in Canada, used to tell me that quoting a statistic, even one you knew was completely wrong, made up or twisted around, could work wonders for your argument. "People are more likely to believe you 86.7 percent of the time," he would say with a wink.

That's why I found Guy Raz's Morning Edition piece today on the use of statistics in the Iraq debate so fascinating. Accusations that numbers are being cherry-picked have been a persistent feature of the war. Now, statistics are playing a large role in the argument over whether the surge in Iraq is improving security.

For instance, take Anbar province, which President Bush visited over the weekend. He called it one of the safest places in Iraq. While it may be true, it's relative — being safe in Iraq is not like being safe in, say, Des Moines. And while military casualties in Anbar are definitely down, it is still the second-deadliest place for U.S. troops in Iraq, Raz reports. Baghdad remains Numero Uno.

Or how about another stat from this morning's piece: Every month this year, more American troops have been killed as compared with the same month last year. Or that the Pentagon won't include in sectarian violence figures the deaths of 500 ethnic Yezidis in August because officials don't consider large bombings examples of sectarian violence.

Former Army National Guard Lt. Paul Rieckhoff writes about statistics in his firsthand account of the war in Iraq, Chasing Ghosts:

"American politicians, military commanders and media personalities are preoccupied with numbers. They can understand numbers. They can plug numbers into an article or use them as talking points. They can slice and manipulate numbers. Self-proclaimed experts gauge whether America is winning or losing the war in Iraq based on numbers of U.S. troops in Iraq, or daily attacks on Americans or Iraq security forces trained. All these numbers are useless without security."

So has security improved in Iraq? What information do you use to form your opinion?

10:15 AM ET | 09- 6-2007 | permalink

Comments (Send a comment)

It is also very telling that while President Bush says Anbar province is one of the safest places in Iraq, he still has to fly there unannounced for security reasons. I think you have to look at an Iraqis daily existence as one measure of security. Do they have a reliable energy infrastructure (electricity, etc...), do they have potable water, can they travel openly and freely to work (in addition what is the job market like) or to gather necessities? From what I understand the answer to these questions is a resounding NO. And why? Security. If we help the Iraqis build facilities to advance their infrastructure it seems it always serves as fodder for insurgents, the Iraqi police and military seem incapable and unwilling to protect anything in the interests of the nation of Iraq. And how can we measure security accurately in places heavily occupied by our troops? If you say a place is secure, and it has a few hundred U.S. Marines patrolling about, then I would say sure it might be safe while they're there but what happens when they leave.

Sent by E.L. Gulbranson | 10:52 AM ET | 09-06-2007

Tom, (personal note) nothing to do really with the current blog and then again, it just might. I'm curious if others have been receiving the occasional spam obviously directed to those who may have an affinity for free speech? Lately I'm hearing more often than I'd like from "Muhammad". In particular the IP tedata.net (Egypt) - any clues?

Sent by george | 9:47 AM ET | 09-08-2007

E.L. Gulbranson might have added that, not only was Bush's visit to Iraq cloaked in secrecy for the sake of security, but he never left the heavily fortified military base there, while claiming that he was observing the success of the surge "on the ground." And the President in the Bubble probably actually believes what he is saying. Why do we still have to put up with this man's delusions?

Sent by Alan Baragona | 12:46 PM ET | 09-09-2007

I am the father of a soldier. My opinion should matter. I do not believe it does.My political leaders are not listening to me. I want our troops home now. Security in Iraq is a joke. Talk to the general population on the ground, not the generals. Security in the U.S. is a joke. You want security here? Open the network of weigh stations that are 95% closed on our interstate highways, create new good paying jobs for people to inspect every truck coming in from Mexico and the containers in our ports. Walk the walk and stop talking non-sense. Do the things necessary to actually make our country safer. How do the large number of people in this country still support an administrative policy in Iraq which has been proven to be a contrived lie fabricated from the beginning and changed continually to serve the purposes of a president who acts more like a dictator than someone who puts the intrests of the nation first? The same goes for our so called representatives. The measures of sucurity in Iraq are a sham. One more in a seamingly never ending line.

Sent by Robert W. Drozd | 10:28 AM ET | 09-10-2007

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