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October 31, 2007

Are Boys Stumbling in School?

This caught me by surprise. An analysis by the Chicago Tribune found that girls outperformed boys on every state achievement exam in Illinois last school year. That includes math and science, two subjects where boys have tended to score higher.

Some blame the imbalance on a "boy crisis" in schools across the country, as research shows girls are more likely to get good grades and graduate on time. But others say the explanation may lie in a revamp of the Illinois Standards Achievement Test. Illinois "made tests more colorful, gave pupils extra time to finish, added questions with longer reading passages and replaced state-created test items with those pulled from a national bank of questions." Bob Schaeffer of FairTest, a nonprofit group that monitors quality and gender bias in achievement exams, says the results show how even a small change to a test can have a significant effect.

Have you seen examples of boys falling behind girls in school? Is it cause for concern?

Mukasey Vote Scheduled, But His Chances Unclear

It appears that Michael Mukasey will find out Tuesday if the Senate Judiciary Committee thinks he should be the new attorney general of the United States. (Although it's still possible for a committee member to request a delay.) If the committee approves his nomination in the scheduled vote, it will then go to the full Senate.

But, surprisingly, it's now not clear whether it will get that far. When President Bush first announced Mukasey as his replacement for the controversial Alberto Gonzales, conventional wisdom was that, while there might be a few bumps, the confirmation was a sure thing. But Mukasey's dance around the question of whether waterboarding is torture has raised the suspicions of many Democrats and a few Republicans.

After several days of silence, Mukasey wrote a letter to several Democratic senators Tuesday in which he outlined his position in more detail. He said the idea of waterboarding, which simulates drowning, is personally repugnant, but he didn't explicitly rule it out as torture, saying he could not speculate on something classified.

The Associated Press reports that his answer didn't appear to help his case. Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, who had supported Mukasey, refused to say if he will still vote for the retired judge next week.

Don Gonyea, NPR's White House correspondent, said it's hard to say if the decision by the committee chairman, Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, to schedule the vote means that the White House has been able to convince enough people to support his nomination. Mostly, Don says, the administration is still knocking the Democrats for not accepting Mukasey's explanation.

And Don says so far, there isn't any buzz that the White House is making backup plans.

I Ain't 'Fraid of No Ghost

My grandparents' house in Windsor, Nova Scotia, had a reputation for being haunted. An old man dressed in mid-19th century clothing would suddenly appear in a hallway or in a room, and then when you looked again, he was gone. We eventually found out that the original owner hung himself in the attic after his wife ran off, adding to the mystique.

Belief in ghosts is fairly common in the United States. A poll released last week showed that one in three people believe in ghosts, and 23 percent say they've actually seen or felt the presence of one. But Sharon Begley, science writer for Newsweek, writes that seeing those ghostly images might have something to do with the way the brain tends to fill in the blanks when it gets only partial information and to see patterns in random data. So if wind whipping through a house sounds like a voice, and if we believe in the supernatural, it becomes a voice.

So have you ever seen a ghost? Or do you think it's just your brain getting tricked when you hear things that go bump in the night?

October 30, 2007

Should We Just Leave Presidential Spouses Alone?

Free the running mates! That's the call from Anne Applebaum of The Washington Post. She believes it's time for political spouses to emulate Cecilia Sarkozy ("minus the divorce and the love affairs," of course) and do their own thing. Having a spouse who wants to run for office, she argues, shouldn't mean putting your life on hold for years.

But that's not the American model. Here, we subject presidential spouses in particular to incredible scrutiny, meaning that if they make a mistake or say something unusual, it can hurt their spouses' careers. As Applebaum says, "No wonder so many first ladies and potential first ladies have wound up depressed, even addicted to alcohol or painkillers. It's an undoable job, and it's time to admit it."

So what expectations do you have for a first lady or political spouse? And do you think it's OK for them to use their spouses' political careers to launch their own, like Sen. Hillary Clinton or President-elect Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner of Argentina?

Science Bloggers Aim to Mark 'Serious' Posts

We bloggers seem to have a reputation for shooting first and asking questions later.

But Dave Munger, a science blogger and stay-at-home dad in Davidson, N.C., wanted to find a way to show people that some blog posts are meant to carry more weight than a rant or an off-hand comment. So he and several other academic bloggers created BPR3 — Bloggers for Peer-Reviewed Research Reporting.

The purpose behind the group's site, Munger told me, is to separate useful and thoughtful comments on peer-reviewed science from posts about news releases and those just sounding off. Munger and his wife, a psychologist who teaches at Davidson College, have been doing something similar for years on their own blog, Cognitive Daily, at ScienceBlogs.

A few months ago, Sister Edith Bogue, a blogging sociologist from Minnesota, contacted Munger and asked if she could use their idea — a tab that isolates the research posts — on her site. But they realized that there was a need for something a wider group could use. So, they developed an icon and began the BPR3 blog.

Bloggers can go there to download the icon and use it in their blogs to signal visitors that the post is of a more serious, research-focused nature. The group created guidelines on what kinds of posts would qualify.

It is the Internet, of course, and Munger realizes that anyone can download an icon and stick it on a site. So in a couple of weeks, BPR3 will launch an aggregation site and RSS feed that will be monitored by Munger and his group. Bloggers will need to register to be included in these features.

So, if you came across an icon like this while surfing the Web, would it make you take that post more seriously?

Iraq Proposes Removing Contractors' Immunity

The immunity that private security contractors working in Iraq have enjoyed since 2004 could be on its way out. The Iraqi Cabinet approved a draft law today that would allow foreign security contractors to be arrested and prosecuted if they break Iraqi laws.

The Iraqi government's move followed the news that the U.S. State Department offered employees of one of the contractors, Blackwater USA, immunity from prosecution by the United States in exchange for their statements about a shooting last month that killed 17 Iraqi civilians. NPR national security correspondent Jackie Northam reports that the State Department wasn't authorized to make that offer and that the FBI now has to re-interview the guards without a promise of immunity, making it much harder to prosecute anyone. Several guards have reportedly refused to answer questions again.

But could the Iraqis prosecute the security guards under their own laws if immunity is removed?

Continue reading "Iraq Proposes Removing Contractors' Immunity" »

October 29, 2007

Fake Briefing Not Up to Fake News Standards?

Doing fake news seems to be one of the top jobs in the media world these days. Look at the fame and influence of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. And let's not forget the Walter Cronkite of fake news: "Weekend Update" on Saturday Night Live.

It was those lofty standards that Day to Day humorist Brian Unger was likely thinking of when he declared the Federal Emergency Management Agency's staged news conference on the California wildfires "a slap in the face to fake journalists everywhere." (Especially after his own work making phony news credible, he adds.)

Now, FEMA officials say employees played reporters on TV because they arranged the briefing at the last second and "real" reporters hadn't shown up. (Not that they bothered to tell anyone that before they got caught.)

Unger points out that this really calls into question the, er, integrity of the entire fake news industry.

Furniture Store's Customers Win Along with Red Sox

It seemed crazy. Jordan's Furniture, based just outside Boston, started a promotion earlier this year that promised customers who bought certain items during a month-long period that they would basically get them for free if the Boston Red Sox won the World Series.

Customers took Jordan's up on the offer, placing nearly 30,000 orders. And then, when the Sox beat the Colorado Rockies on Sunday, they hit the jackpot. They are all getting their money back. I've seen estimates that it will cost Jordan's more than $15 million.

But it's not quite as nuts as it might appear: Jordan's took out an insurance policy.

These kinds of promotions are getting more popular each year, says Tiffani Stovall, marketing manager for Odds On Promotions of Reno, Nev. The company underwrites insurance policies like the one Jordan's took out.

Stores use this kind of "conditional rebate" promotion to draw in more shoppers. Many are tied to a sporting event — like, if your team hits a grand slam in the seventh inning, all tires are free — but they don't have be. Stovall's company once insured a promotion that offered rebates if it snowed on Christmas Day.

However, Stovall says few are as big as Jordan's Red Sox giveaway. Odds On Promotions didn't insure that one, but it is handling a similar contest for Shavarsh Jewelers, a Boston-area store that will rebate purchases if the New England Patriots are undefeated this season. The jewelry store is insured for a much smaller amount.

And the rebate ointment is not without its flies for customers. The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that Jordan's will send the "winners" a Form 1099 and notify the IRS because federal law requires taxpayers to report prize income of more than $600.

Standard Time Switch Caught in Time Warp

iStockphoto

I'm starting to wonder if we'll ever get this time-change thing down.

When I went to pick my wife up at the airport on Sunday, it took me a second to figure out why the pay-and-go parking machine wouldn't let me pay and leave. I had spent almost an hour in the lot, but the machine was telling me that I was trying to leave 10 minutes earlier than I had actually arrived — it had changed back to standard time a week early. (So I ended up leaving without paying.)

The time warp was a result of an energy bill Congress passed in 2005 that moved daylight-saving time three weeks earlier in the spring and a week later in the fall, starting this year. Instead of falling on this past Sunday, the switch will be next Sunday.

Now, Congress built in a two-year waiting period to give people ample opportunity to make changes to computer software, clocks, etc. But that didn't stop problems from cropping up last spring.

David Prerau, who literally wrote the book on seasonal time changes, Seize the Daylight: The Curious and Contentious Story of Daylight Saving Time, told me he expected that. "It's human nature. Look at Y2K. People had 10 years to make that change and still many waited until the last second," he said.

But he figured people would remember to make the change for the fall at the same time. Turns out that not everybody was so forward-thinking.

The Baltimore Sun reports that parking meters in the city fell back an hour, meaning some people got tickets. The New York Daily News notes that many BlackBerry phones, laptop computers and other gadgets switched back as well.

So did you lose an hour? Or like me, end up saving a few bucks because the time worked in your favor?

October 26, 2007

Really Need an Excuse? You Can Buy One

My dad always used to tell me that if you can find a need that people have and fill it, you can have a successful business.

I guess that John Liddell, the businessman who co-founded the Excused Absence Network, is an example of that approach. He will sell you excuses to get out of work or school. (And all excuses are on special right now, only $19.95!) You can get a fake jury summons or a fake doctor's note. But the site says it's just for entertainment purposes. (Wink, wink, nudge, nudge.)

Could this site fill a need for you, or do you already have excuse-making down? (Please share any good stories.) Or, even better, do you have any suggestions for other ethically questionable but potentially profitable businesses to start?

That's all for this week. You can e-mail us at newsblog@npr.org.

Beijing Air Quality Concerns Sports Officials

So will the 2008 Beijing Olympics go down in history as the air pollution games?

The United Nations Environment Program released a report Thursday that praised Chinese authorities for much of the work they've done to clean up the environment in preparation for next year's Summer Games. But it noted that air quality remains a "stubborn" problem as "levels of small particles in the atmosphere [in Beijing] ... which are hazardous to health, often greatly exceed World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines."

Jill Geer, a spokeswoman for USA Track and Field, says the problem can be bad. But she also says the Chinese authorities can make a big difference in a hurry.

Geer was in Beijing for the 2001 World University Games. She told me that the day before the student games were to start, her roommate called her to the window. In previous days, she could only see a half-mile or so because of the poor air quality, but that day, she could see much more of the city.

The rumors were that authorities had shut down the factories around the city. And that's exactly what Dr. David Martin, a member of the track and field organization's sports medicine and science committee, recommends this time around. He says one of the things China should do is close factories and take cars off the road in Beijing at least three weeks before the games.

Martin, who specializes in exercise physiology at Georgia State University, says two key pollutants, carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide, come from cars and factories.

"The last thing in the world the Chinese want," he adds," is for these games to go down in history as the pollution games. And while shutting cars and factories down will cost a lot, it will be pennies compared to what they've already spent on the venues and preparation, and pennies compared to the cost of losing face."

Weighing the Chances of the Sanctions Against Iran

The White House announced tough new sanctions against key elements of the Iranian regime on Thursday, but what are the chances they'll actually work?

To find out, one thing you can look for is a "black knight" lurking in the background, says Daniel Drezner, associate professor of international politics at Tufts University. He tells me that a "black knight" is a country that provides the sanctioned regime with the very things the sanctioner just tried to take away.

Considering the rhetoric coming from Moscow these days, Russia might fit that description for Iran. China might try on a knight's helmet as well.

Other things to look for that can help predict sanctions' success? Drezner, who wrote The Sanctions Paradox: Economic Statecraft and International Relations, says there's also the expectation of future conflict. If the sanctioned country believes that bowing to the sanctions won't rule out clashes in the future, then the penalties are ineffective. The leaders just shrug and say, "What's the difference?"

And, as Drezner says, Iran is expecting a lot of future conflict with the United States.

Another factor to consider comes from NPR's global finance guru, Adam Davidson. Adam tells me that most economists believe that the more totalitarian the regime, the less likely financial sanctions are to work. And the more entrepreneurial the country, the more effective sanctions can be. (So they didn't work very well against Saddam Hussein, who controlled the Iraqi economy, but they did have an effect in South Africa, where there was a strong independent business class.)

Iran? Well, it does have a small business class, but most of the key sections of the economy are controlled by the regime and its agents, like the Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force. What's likely to happen, Adam says, is that the entrepreneurs will get squeezed, while those targeted by the sanctions will increase their share of a shrinking pie.

October 25, 2007

Twins, Separated as Babies, Become Sisters Again

The story of Elyse Schein and Paula Bernstein, identical twins who were put up for adoption and separated as babies, seems like something from a movie.

While I listened to the twins talk about their lives today on Talk of the Nation, I found it hard not to feel angry that their separation was part of (as host Neal Conan put it) an "ethically dubious" 1960s psychological study investigating the effects of nature versus nurture.

But it's amazing that they were able to find each other. After their adoption, the sisters lived separate lives. Then, more than 30 years later, Elyse decided to find out what she could about her birth mother from the adoption agency and discovered she had a twin. The rest of the sisters' story is chronicled in their new book, Identical Strangers.

All Things Considered reports that the sisters are trying to find out more about the "one-of-a-kind experiment" that resulted in their separation. The sisters hope that the documents that detail the research, which are locked up for several more decades, will be released early to the twins who were its subjects.

Facebook Valued at $15 Billion, But Will It Last?

For a long time, Facebook, a social-networking site originally for college students, seemed to be Avis to MySpace's Hertz (you know, Facebook was always trying harder). So its founder, 23-year-old Mark Zuckerberg, had a little trouble convincing people that he wasn't crazy for turning down a $1 billion buyout offer from Yahoo!

But now, Microsoft has helped prove Zuckerberg's point. After winning a much-publicized battle with Google, Microsoft announced Wednesday that it was buying 1.6 percent of the private company for $240 million.

That, as Andy Carvin, NPR's senior product manager for online communities, told me, "adds credibility to Facebook's argument" about its overall worth. The deal puts Facebook's value at $15 billion — about 500 times the $30 million the company is expected to make in profit this year.

As for how the site's online community will react, Andy says it won't be a big deal. "I'm guessing that the average college student won't care as long as their favorite Facebook apps are untouched," he said.

But will Microsoft's backing make any difference in the long run? As Mik Parekh of the British Internet marketing company Cynergise noted recently on the company's Web site, as popular as Facebook is right now, there is always another, even better social-networking tool just over the hill. Parekh writes that it may be just a matter of time before Facebook is eclipsed.

So, how long can Facebook survive as-is? If it is to make it past the next tide it needs to change what it offers to the users. Add more value so even government agencies and corporations can reap some benefit of having their workers spend time on it.

And Andy says Facebook appears to be moving along those lines. For example, the company also announced Wednesday that it has signed a deal to make Facebook features available on BlackBerries. If there is any modern tool that government agencies and corporations seem to rely on, it's the BlackBerry.

California Fires: What Would You Take with You?

What really hits you about the California fires is the randomness. The images of neighborhoods where some homes have been destroyed, while the neighboring houses still stand.

I kept wondering if there was some way to take action against this randomness. After all, California has been hit by big wildfires before. Much of the same area was burned just four years ago. Haven't we learned something that would help homeowners protect their property from the blaze?

Unfortunately, not really. Scott Horsley, who has done an admirable job reporting on the fires for NPR, tells me that there isn't much that can be done. Scott wrote in an e-mail that fire officials encourage homeowners to maintain "defensible space" around their homes — that is, no dry brush up against the house — but he spoke to one man who followed all the rules and still lost his home. And in a neighborhood Scott visited Wednesday, brush wasn't so much the problem as embers that blew from burning houses onto others.

So, if there's no way to really protect your house from destruction, it comes down to choosing what to save when the evacuation order comes. I was struck by the comment of one man, whose house was lost while his Porsche was saved, who said he would rather the firefighters had rescued his daughter's stuffed animals.

How about you? Assuming that people (and pets) were safe, what things would you choose to take with you — understanding that you might lose everything else to the fire?

October 24, 2007

Nightmare on Your Street

Under the covers may actually be the scariest place of all.

Paul Hebditch/iStockphoto

Did you know that most of your dreams are not sweet — but bad? Really. Studies have found that about three-quarters of the emotions described in dreams are negative. But it also turns out that all those bad dreams could be pretty useful.

The New York Times reports that sleep scientists say dreaming may serve an evolutionarily adaptive purpose. (I can only imagine the kind of dreams our distant ancestors had — getting eaten by a saber-toothed cat?) Two scientists have proposed that when you dream you are cleansing and then trashing scary memories to clear space in your brain for any new threats that are coming down the road.

But just don't wake up — that's when those bad dreams become nightmares, and the only purpose they seem to serve is to scare the blazes out of you.

Iraq War, Terrorism Seem to Dominate the Big Screen

Reese Witherspoon in Rendition, one of several films this season dealing with post-Sept. 11 themes.

Sam Emerson/New Line Cinema

There seems to be as much "coverage" of the war on terror and its various themes in theaters these days as there is on television and radio and in the papers. But as All Things Considered noted Tuesday, none of these films with post-Sept. 11 themes have been doing well at the box office. The Kingdom, an action thriller about terrorists and FBI agents set in Saudi Arabia, has done the best of the bunch so far, but it has brought in only $44 million and cost $70 million to make.

Last week's entry was Rendition (not to be confused with Brian DePalma's Redacted, due out soon). Even though it stars Reese Witherspoon and Jake Gyllenhaal, it took in only $4 million its first weekend.

So is it just that America is not ready for a spate of movies about terrorism, torture and the Iraq war? Not necessarily.

NPR film critic Bob Mondello says October is the month when "serious" movies tend to move center stage (can you say Oscar bait?), but these films are not designed to be blockbusters. If you check out box office totals, top-grossing movies tend to make around $15 million in their opening weekend this time of the year, Bob says. (Sure enough, this weekend's top-grossing movie, 30 Days of Night, made just a tad below $16 million.)

Bob also points out that many of the films with post-Sept. 11 themes have not gotten great reviews. For instance, The Kingdom was rated just 52 percent positive at RottenTomatoes.com, and Rendition only 43 percent (that means both are ranked "rotten") at last check. In the Valley of Elah did better at 63 percent (but still barely made the "fresh" category).

So it may be that Americans aren't turned off by these themes so much as that these movies aren't intended to be big moneymakers or just aren't good. But what do you think? Bad movies or bad subject matter?

What's Going on with the Alternative Minimum Tax?

There's nothing like finding out that you might be paying more taxes — a lot more — to focus your attention. So I took notice when I read about Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's call to Congress to fix a part of the tax code called the alternative minimum tax, like, right now. If a change isn't made soon, millions of middle-class Americans (about 21 million, in fact) could end up facing an average increase of $2,000 — falling victim to a rule originally designed to get rich people who found a way around paying taxes to pony up.

Well, I don't know about you, but I ain't rich.

I know next to nothing about taxes, especially the AMT. (And I am not alone here, as is evident in this piece by Andrea Seabrook from March.) So I turned to NPR's Adam Davidson, who knows a lot about trade, business and finance. One thing I wanted to know was why the AMT wasn't just tied to inflation, which would seem to solve this problem. (As incomes rise over time, more and more people are bumping over the threshold that qualifies them for the AMT.)

The answer? Well, the AMT makes little economic sense, Adam says, but it makes lots of sense politically. It was created at a time when many in Congress felt "rich people" were not paying enough (or any) taxes. So the AMT was created to ensure everyone paid something. But instead of thoughtful study and research, Congress kind of, well, winged it.

Continue reading "What's Going on with the Alternative Minimum Tax?" »

October 23, 2007

Broccoli Extract May Help Repair Sun Damage to Skin

Sondra Paulson/iStockphoto

In the future, if you get a sunburn, you might be reaching right past the aloe vera gel and rubbing on some broccoli.

That's right. Scientists say early test results show that chemicals in broccoli extracts may significantly reduce the redness and inflammation caused by lingering too long in the sun. Reducing that damage could in turn decrease the risk of skin cancer. But, as usual, more tests are necessary.

I like broccoli, so the idea of rubbing it on my skin is not all that gross. I guess. But my kids don't seem to like it. My oldest daughter made a face when I told her about it. My 11-year-old son wrinkled his brow and said, "Is this just some weird way to get us to eat more vegetables?"

U.S. Role in Turkey-PKK Conflict Scrutinized

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (right) talks to Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan (left) with the help of a translator during a meeting today in Baghdad.

Ali Al-Saadi-Pool/Getty Images

Diplomatic efforts aimed at convincing Turkey not to invade northern Iraq to go after Kurdish rebels continued today with a promise from Iraq to help curb their attacks. As I've been following these unfolding negotiations, one thing I've been wondering about is the United States' role in the conflict between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

"What role is that?" Jenny White responded with a laugh when I asked her to talk about it. White is an associate professor of anthropology at Boston University and an expert on Turkey.

"Really, it's kind of ludicrous," she continued. "I was in Turkey this past summer, and you could sense how mad Turks are at the U.S. And the decline in popular support was due to the fact that the U.S. was doing nothing to stop the PKK attacks against Turkish soldiers and civilians, despite the fact that the PKK was operating in territory supposedly under U.S. control. And the whole Armenian business in Congress made relations between Turkey and the U.S. even worse."

But, of course, the United States already has a lot to deal with in Iraq. On All Things Considered on Monday, Michele Kelemen talked to experts who pointed out that the U.S. military is not likely to transfer much-needed troops in areas like Baghdad to the northern edges of Iraq. And then there is the sense that the United States and Turkey are no longer "on the same wavelength," as they were in the days of the Cold War.

White said that when she was last in Washington, a military official talked about how things have changed, saying the U.S. was displeased with Turkey's relationship with Iran, which has tried to help fight the PKK.

With limited military options, the United States seems to be getting tough with its Kurdish allies in northern Iraq, even saying publicly that it is disappointed with Kurdish inaction against the PKK. So it becomes yet another diplomatic balancing act: putting pressure on one ally to avoid losing another in the largely hostile region.

Mistrials in Muslim Charity Case Spark Questions

Now that the government's largest terrorism-funding case has spiraled into confusion and mistrials, one expert says it's time to look at how the government went after the now-defunct Muslim charity on trial in the first place.

David Cole, a professor of constitutional law at Georgetown University, says what should cause concern about the case is the "secret process" the government used to shut down and freeze the assets of the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development, which has been accused of financing terrorists, almost six years ago.

"Now that the government has put all its evidence on the table, and they were unable to establish that a crime was committed, it really is time to look at how the initial decision was made," said Cole, the co-author of Less Safe, Less Free: Why America is Losing the War on Terror. "It looks like the government is trying to go farther than the law would justify."

However, The Investigative Project on Terrorism notes that a federal judge did find there was sufficient evidence connecting the charity to the Palestinian militant group Hamas to reject Holy Land's request to remove its designation as a terrorist group and unfreeze its funds in 2002.

And conservative Rod Dreher writes in his Crunchy Con blog at Beliefnet that he thinks the government didn't get a verdict in its favor in the criminal case because the jury didn't understand it.

Cole, a frequent critic of the Bush administration's policies in the war on terror, points out that this isn't the first time the government has had trouble getting a conviction in a federal terrorism case. Statistics from the 2006 Terrorist Trial Report Card from New York University's Center on Law and Security show the government has won 29 percent of cases since 2001.

October 22, 2007

Officials Expect Significant Damage from Wildfires

Flames engulf a house during a massive brush fire today in Poway, Calif.

Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

The San Diego-area fires of 2003 were bad. But the fires of 2007 might be worse.

Dozens of buildings have been burned and at least one person has been killed in the wildfires in Southern California. But The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the worst may be yet to come — the damage could hit record totals in the next 48 hours. "This fire will probably be the worst this county has ever seen — worse than the Cedar [2003] fire," Sheriff Bill Kolender said.

Earlier today there were still seven fires burning in San Diego County. Four had been put out overnight. CNN reports that more than 250,000 people in the county have been evacuated so far.

If you want more information about the fires:
-A Google map shows the locations of the fires, along with updates on road closings and evacuation centers in the area.
-The Union Tribune has a breaking news blog and a map.
-The Firefighter Blog offers video and webcam views of the blaze.
-Flickr has a series of photos taken by people in the San Diego area.

Mike Huckabee: Dark Horse Candidate?

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee speaks at the Values Voter Summit on Saturday in Washington.

Stephanie Kuykendal/Getty Images

Confrontations among the GOP "Big Four" — Sen. John McCain, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Sen. Fred Thompson and former Gov. Mitt Romney — set many commentators buzzing after Sunday night's Republican debate in Orlando. But some attention also centered around former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and his decision not to join in.

Huckabee compared the debate to a demolition derby. "I'm kind of glad I wasn't in on the first few minutes because it was all about these guys fighting each other," Huckabee said, adding there were more important things to talk about.

This follows Huckabee's close second-place finish behind Romney in a straw poll at the Values Voter Summit last week in Washington. The Weekly Standard's Dean Barnett notes that in the most recent Rasmussen poll in Iowa, Huckabee was third with 18 percent, within striking distance of Romney at 25 percent and just behind Thompson at 19 percent.

So is Huckabee pulling away from the rest of the pack that follows the Big Four? Could he even be the GOP's version of Jimmy Carter, a once obscure governor from Georgia who defeated all the big names in 1976? I talked with some of NPR's political reporters about this idea, which they found intriguing, but they said Carter's success would be difficult to replicate.

The biggest problem facing any potential dark horse is, of course, that times have changed. Carter could build slowly into the Democratic convention. Now, a candidate can only build slowly until the first primary.

This neck of the race is a marathon of positioning and name-building that will eventually turn into a sprint. Don Gonyea, NPR's White House correspondent, compares it to an Olympic long-distance cycling race in a velodrome. For the first 19 laps of a 20-lap race, the cyclists move very slowly — they can even come to a complete stop on occasion. It's a game of wits and chess-like strategy. Then, the bell sounds the final lap, and they madly sprint for the finish.

So it's not that Huckabee doesn't have a chance to do well. But he would have to get himself into a good position pretty quickly — that bell's going to ring in about two months.

Pressure on Turkish PM to Invade Iraq Grows

Protesters in Istanbul today hold flags and a picture of a soldier who was killed Sunday by Kurdish rebels. About 3,000 flag-waving Turks took to the streets, chanting slogans against the Kurdistan Workers' Party.

AFP/Getty Images

A clash with Kurdish rebels on Sunday that killed at least 12 Turkish soldiers may be the tipping point that sends Turkey into northern Iraq. It could be tough for Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to squeeze out of it now, especially with the Kurds also claiming to have captured eight soldiers.

Last week, parliament members gave Erdogan the OK to use military force. Now, the Turkish media reports, the public is demanding it. If Erdogan doesn't invade, it will likely damage his public image severely.

I e-mailed Ivan Watson, our correspondent in Istanbul, this morning, and he told me that Turkish leaders don't think an invasion will solve the problem but have painted themselves into a corner with the vote in parliament. An expert he interviewed for Morning Edition, Hugh Pope, said the Turks "are pushed by domestic public opinion to go in, and by common sense to stay out."

Ivan wrote that if the latest attack really did start with an ambush by members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, that it's "basically an invitation by the PKK for the Turks to invade northern Iraq."

Yes, the PKK seems to want a Turkish invasion, according to Pope, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. He said the PKK is launching these attacks for two reasons: to remain relevant and to try and draw Turkey into what he calls "the morass of Iraq."

So Erdogan is in a tight spot. The public is clamoring for a military response that he doesn't think will work and may play right into the PKK's strategy. But if he doesn't act in the way voters want, he could put his own political career in jeopardy.

But a peaceful settlement may still be possible. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, said the rebels would declare a unilateral ceasefire today. A PKK Web site says the rebels are ready to lay down their arms if Turkey stops targeting them and drops plans for an invasion, Agence France-Presse reports.

October 19, 2007

Torre Leaves Yankees

I'm a Boston Red Sox fan. So for me, I must disclose, there are only two things that matter: that the Red Sox win the World Series and that the New York Yankees don't.

Yankees manager Joe Torre has been one big reason why Sox fans could never count the Yankees out for the past 12 seasons. And now he's gone. The pending departure adds a new twist to the teams' rivalry.

On Thursday, the Yankees' brass offered Torre a one-year contract at a reduced salary based around performance incentives. On Morning Edition, Tom Goldman talked about how Torre saw this offer as an insult and turned it down. Many believe that Torre became the fall guy for the Yankees' failed strategy of just buying the biggest names they could find, rather than developing from the bottom up — the strategy of this year's National League champs, the Colorado Rockies.

So now the question becomes who will manage the Yankees? Bench coach and former Yankees' first baseman Don Mattingly is a leading contender, but even he has said that whoever replaces Torre will have a really tough job. As Mark Feinsand wrote on Blogging the Bombers, "You won't realize how good Torre was until you go through a season without him."

Canadian Gets Apology from U.S. Congressmen

Canadian Maher Arar heard two things Thursday he probably didn't expect. First, he got apologies from both Democratic and Republican congressmen for being wrongly sent by U.S. authorities in 2002 to Syria for suspected terrorist links. Arar was repeatedly tortured during the year he was in a Syrian prison.

And he heard Democratic Rep. Jerrold Nadler say, "There is nothing [in the U.S. government's secret dossier on Arar] to justify the continuation of this campaign of vilification against you or to deny you entry into this country." Nadler made the comments after saying he had read the file. "This was a kidnapping," Nadler said.

But the one thing Arar didn't get was permission to travel to the United States, which was the reason that he was testifying, by video link from Ottawa, to a House Judiciary subcommittee in Washington about his experiences. The Bush administration has refused to take Arar off its no-fly list even though he's been completely cleared by Canadian officials after an extensive judicial inquiry. The U.S. is also trying to squash a lawsuit that Arar has filed in New York.

And while they apologized to Arar for his treatment, Republican members of the committee defended the practice of extraordinary rendition, calling it a vital tool in the war on terror. They also noted that Canadian officials had made the first mistake about Arar. But the committee's chairman, Democrat William Delahunt, praised Canada for being accountable for its culpability in the case and said it "cries out" for a similar independent probe in the U.S.

Canadian Pedophile Suspect Arrested in Thailand

Thai police arrested an alleged Canadian pedophile Friday who had been the target of a worldwide Interpol search. Teacher Christopher Paul Neil was found in the province of Nakhon Ratchasima, 150 miles northeast of Bangkok.

"Bingo! We've got him," police Maj. Gen. Wimol Powintara told The Associated Press. Police tracked down Neil after they put a trace on his Thai boyfriend's cellphone.

Neil is allegedly the suspect who had been sought by Interpol for three years after about 200 pictures of a man sexually abusing young boys in Cambodia and Vietnam appeared on the Internet. But the man's face had been digitally obscured. Then earlier this month German police were able to unscramble the pictures. That's when Interpol made its worldwide appeal for help to find Neil.

Neil has been teaching in Thailand, South Korea and Vietnam since 2000. Before teaching abroad, Neil worked as a chaplain in Canada, counseling teens.

If convicted he could face up to 20 years in prison. Law enforcement officials in Cambodia, Vietnam and Canada have also indicated they want to question Neil about his activities.

October 18, 2007

Board Approves Birth Control at Middle School

This story from Portland, Maine, makes me remember that middle schoolers have a lot more to deal with than finding a way to get tickets for a Miley Cyrus concert.

On Wednesday, school board members approved a plan to make prescription birth control available to students as young as 11 at King Middle School's health center starting either this year or next. The move comes after a number of pregnancies in the city's middle schools.

Under state law, treatment is confidential. Students need their parents' permission to use the center, but they don't have to reveal why.

Portland School Committee member Lori Gramlich, who supported the measure, told Day to Day's Madeleine Brand that while she believes parents need to talk to their children about sex and that abstinence is the only form of birth control that is 100 percent effective, the reality is that not all children will follow that advice. So she says the board needs to "give them what they need to protect themselves."

Parents in Portland are split on the issue, but the debate seems to be raging even hotter on the national level.

'Hannah Montana' Takes America by Storm

Hannah Montana star Miley Cyrus performs during the Disney Channel Games 2007 Concert in April in Kissimmee, Fla.

Gerardo Mora/Getty Images

Hannah Montana lives in my house.

OK, she doesn't really. But her records do. And her posters. And her magazine covers. And while I don't let my children watch much TV, she always seems to be on whenever they've earned the right to watch the tube. I swear there are a couple of episodes of the Disney Channel show Hannah Montana that I've seen a dozen times. My daughters can recite the dialogue by heart.

Blake Farmer reported on Morning Edition today from Nashville about the Hannah Montana phenomenon, which is also the Miley Cyrus phenomenon. Cyrus plays the title character on Hannah Montana, alongside her co-star dad, former country sensation Billy Ray Cyrus. For the next few months, Miley is taking her musical act on the road, and she has sold out shows across America.

One marketing consultant Blake interviewed says the demand for Cyrus tickets shows the power that tweens have over what their parents buy. But what is it about Hannah Montana that has all those 8-to-12-year-olds clamoring for tickets that are selling for hundreds of dollars?

On the show, Cyrus' character lives a dual life. By day, she's a regular middle schooler, constantly bullied and humiliated by the cool girls. But at night, she puts on a wig and becomes Hannah Montana, super pop star. It's that fantasy that I think my girls love: living a regular life and hanging out with friends and family, yet secretly being way cooler than the cool kids. And as someone said to me, the idea that people who are mean to you can't see who you really are (but would like you if they did) is pretty appealing.

After Weeks of Rumors, Sarkozys Confirm Divorce

The other shoe has dropped. The lawyer for French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his wife, Cecilia, has confirmed what had been the worst-kept secret in the country: They have gotten a divorce.

Lawyer Michele Cahen spoke on Europe-1 radio. Earlier today, Sarkozy's office put out a 15-word statement that confirmed a separation, and Sarkozy's spokesman later said that separation meant divorce.

The announcement comes along with another crisis for the president: nationwide transportation strikes over proposed pension changes that began Wednesday night and kept many French workers at home today.

Sarkozy is the first French president to get a divorce while in office. But other well-known heads of state, like former South African President Nelson Mandela and Argentine President Carlos Menem have gone through divorces or separations while in power.

Bhutto Returns to Pakistan

Supporters of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto try to get a glimpse as she passes by in a procession today in Karachi, Pakistan.

John Moore/Getty Images

Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan today after eight years in exile. When she arrived in Karachi, she was greeted by tens of thousands of jubilant supporters.

Bhutto described her return as a "miracle," and members of her Pakistan People's Party who accompanied her on the flight clapped and cheered when her plane touched down.

Security was high in the city following a series of assassination threats against Bhutto from Islamic militants. Authorities tried to stop her from undertaking a long procession through Karachi to the tomb of Pakistan's founding father, Mohammed Ali Jinnah, but she was undeterred: "I do not believe that any true Muslim will make an attack on me because Islam forbids attacks on women, and Muslims know that if they attack a woman they will burn in hell."

Bhutto is expected to seek the prime minister's office for a third time in upcoming elections, but some political observers in the country have expressed a deep skepticism about the power-sharing negotiations with President Pervez Musharraf that allowed her to return. (She fled the country in 1999 to escape corruption charges.) They say that by agreeing to support the president in return for legislation that wiped out the charges, she compromised her political independence.

In Washington, however, her election would likely be viewed positively because she and Musharraf are seen as pro-Western.

Update: The Associated Press reports that two explosions have gone off near a truck carrying former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. An official said at least 100 people were killed. While Bhutto was not hurt, the second, larger blast went off just feet from the front of the truck carrying her. The blast shattered windows in her vehicle.

October 17, 2007

Native American Activist Fought Sports Mascots

I'm writing this blog in a town that has a football team named the Redskins, and I've been reading about how the Cleveland Indians are threatening to beat my beloved Red Sox for the American League pennant.

The use of Native American names and images as mascots for teams like Washington and Cleveland really bothered Vernon Bellecourt, who died recently at the age of 75. On Tell Me More, Suzan Shown Harjo, a columnist for Indian Country Today, talked about how Bellecourt became involved in fighting sports stereotypes of Native Americans.

Bellecourt was an outspoken member of the movement that started in the 1960s, targeting mascots like the University of Oklahoma's Little Red and the Dartmouth Indians. When it began, there were more than 3,000 sports teams using references considered offensive by Native Americans, Harjo says. Now, there are fewer than 1,000.

But not a single professional team has changed its mascot, Harjo says. In 1992, Bellecourt publicly lambasted the Redskins' owner before the Super Bowl for not changing the team's name. And he was arrested in Cleveland during the 1997 World Series while protesting mascot Chief Wahoo.