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December 31, 2007

Huckabee Goes Negative ... Almost

For the benighted members of the press corps who specialize in watching the campaign ads, the BIG QUESTION has been this: Will Huckabee Go Negative?

Mitt Romney sure has, hitting Huckabee with "contrast ads" that paint him as soft on illegal immigrants, soft on meth, soft on convicts. And if you believe the polls, it's working: Huckabee's "miracle" surge into first place is losing steam.

The situation has put Huckabee into an unusual bind. He could respond with a negative ad of his own... something that sounds like... say... THIS:

Announcer: Romney's record, over $700,000,000 in new taxes. Left office with a deficit. No executions. Supported gun control. And Romney's government-mandated health plan provided a fifty-dollar copay for abortion.

Huckabee: If a man's dishonest to obtain a job, he'll be dishonest on the job. Iowans deserve better.

But the problem with that is Huckabee's appeal has been based in no small measure on his image as a jokey, nice-guy preacher. If he gets into the mud with Romney on the airwaves, it could finish the job Romney started.

But what if he prepares the above-mentioned ad, delivers it to TV stations, calls a news conference to announce it -- and then declares to a stunned press corps that he's just had a change of heart. That he's pulling the ad before it airs because he doesn't have the stomach to go negative.

That's just what he did in Iowa this afternoon.

If Huckabee is lucky, this will happen: The attack ad will get some exposure anyway, via the "free media" provided by the reporters at that news conference; at the same time, he'll credit for "turning the other cheek."

If Huckabee's not so lucky, the whole thing will stink up the joint as an amateurish stunt that tried to have it both ways. Nice guy/Attack guy.

It should be fun to see how THIS one spins out over the next "news cycle."

-- Martin Kaste

Some of the Best Political Videos of 2007

One of the biggest political trend of 2007 was the use of YouTube as an outlet for political messages. (Heck, CNN built two whole debates around the technology.) And so, TechPresident has put together its list of the best political videos of 2007 - they are all available on YouTube of course.

First TechPresident offers its ten-best videos made by the candidates' campaigns - "official" ads. It rates the "Students for Obama" video number one and "a great piece of campaign propaganda." The Hillary Clinton-Sopranos parody was number two, while the Clinton's took number three as well with "Caucusing is easy" which features a hamburger, Bill Clinton, and Hillary singing the national anthem. (Be afraid, be very afraid.)

It also offers up the top-ten voter-generated videos. Number one, and still the most viewed political video this year: the Hillary Clinton 1984 video that's a take off of the famous Apple McIntosh ad. In fact, Sen. Clinton is the "subject" of the all of the top four videos in this list. (Mind you, there's something here to offend the supporters of most candidates.)

After looking at both lists, you would hope that Clinton remembers the words of Oscar Wilde: "The only thing worse than being talked about it being not talked about."

McCain's Crowds Growing in New Hampshire

It was a very good weekend for Republican Senator John McCain in New Hampshire. As NPR's Josh Rogers reports, his rallies are attracting larger and larger crowds.

Many of those in attendance had previously written him off because his campaign seemed out-of-steam, or because he was too "soft" on immigration. But last week's assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan has given voters in the state a reason to reconsider McCain.

In his speeches in the Granite State, McCain lists off the world leaders that he's already met and why he is the right man for the job, particularly against "radical Islamic jihadism." He's quick to point out the lack of experience his main competitor, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, has in this area.

An American Research Group poll from Dec. 30 shows Romney and McCain tied at 30 percent each in New Hampshire. (A month ago the same poll shows McCain at 11 percent.) Perhaps sensing that he's not going to win Iowa (most polls show him in third or fourth place), McCain is spending almost the entire week in New Hampshire in search of the upset that looks increasingly in his grasp.

Bloomberg Increasingly Eyes Presidential Run

The New York Times reports that, buoyed by the lack of a clear frontrunner in either party, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is "growing increasingly enchanted with the idea of an independent presidential bid." And he's got the money to do it - unlike the other candidates, criss-crossing the country in search of financial support, Bloomberg is a billionaire who could run the most expensive campaign for the presidency ever, and not even dent his pocketbook.

The Times reports that while he continues to deny in public any plans to run, he has become more open with his friends about his interest in running. This weekend, he will attend a bipartisan meeting of U.S. political figures who will urge the candidates to close the bi-partisan divide. Past reports have indicated that if he did run. Bloomberg would cast himself as a bipartisan president ready to work with both sides.

A Bloomberg candidacy would present some interesting scenarios. If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and Hilary Clinton the Democratic one, it would mean three New Yorkers would be running for president. And if Ron Paul also makes an independent run, as some have suggested he might do, that would mean there would be four well-financed candidates fighting it out for the Oval Office.

Weekend Does Little to Clarify Races in Iowa

Well, that weekend didn't do much to clear up the situation in Iowa.

After more scrambling around the state by the candidates, NPR's Don Gonyea reports that the races look tighter than ever. Most of the campaigns are aiming for the undecided caucus-goer, which some polls put as high as one in five.

On the Republican side, it appears that Mitt Romney's negative ads about Mike Huckabee have brought him back to the pack, after a surge when he appeared to be pulling away. A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Romney ahead 27 percent to 23 percent (but only 400 likely caucus goers, margin of error +/- five percent). A Zogby poll (934 likely caucus goers, +/- 3.3 percent) shows Huckabee with a one-point lead, 29 to 28 percent.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton spent the weekend emphasizing her experience again, and also telling NBC's Tim Russert that her husband wouldn't be a part of any national security council meetings in her administration. The Zogby poll shows her with a small lead over Sen. Barack Obama at 31 to 27 percent. John Edwards sits at 24 percent. But the Edwards people are stressing the Mason-Dixon poll, which shows their guy with a one-point lead over Clinton and two over Obama: 24 to 23 to 22.

8:49 AM ET | 12-31-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

December 28, 2007

Not Everyone in Iowa Crazy About The Caucuses

There's little doubt that "Get Outta Our Town," a tongue-in-cheek YouTube song/video from Jason Walsmith of The Nadas and Kyle Munson of The Des Moines Register, sums up how more than a few people in Iowa really feel about the caucuses and the candidate and media circus that comes along every four years.

Obama, Clinton, Edwards Battle for Airtime

It looks like an Iowa example of "anything you can do I can do better." Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards are waging yet another skirmish, this time to see who can get the most commercial airtime on January 2nd, the night before the Iowa caucuses.

On Thursday the Clinton campaign announced that she would buy a 2-minute block of airtime on every 6 p.m. newscast in the state. Not to be outdone, the Obama campaign announced Friday that it would try to buy a two- or five-minute window of time during the stations' local newscasts, during the period between local news and primetime programming, or during primetime. And the campaign want to know if Obama can do it live via-satellite.

But as ABCNews notes, there is almost no way that all the stations in the state can provide a big block of airtime during those periods, yet alone all at the same time so that Obama could do a live commercial. The stations have instead offered him two-minute windows either during its local newscast or in one case, during the the Iowa State versus University of South Carolina basketball game.

Not to be outdone, Edwards also said Friday that he too would like some airtime - a 90-second spot during the local newscasts.

And that's just the Democrats.

If this keeps up, the actual local newscasts will be about 30 seconds long Tuesday night, and the rest of the program will be candidates' commercials

Edwards Campaign Feeling Good About Iowa

For most of the months of November and December in Iowa, the media has focused their attention on the battle between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party's nomination for president. Former Sen. John Edwards looked to be running a sometimes distant third as the top two candidates jostled back and forth.

But two new polls show that the Democratic race for Iowa is a genuine three-way contest. A survey of 600 likely Democratic voters in Iowa by Strategic Vision on Dec. 26 and 27 shows Obama with the support of 30 percent of those polled, Clinton with 29 percent and Edwards with 28 percent. Meanwhile, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows Clinton with 29 percent, Obama with 26 percent and Edwards with 25 percent.

But perhaps more important in the Times.Bloomberg poll, Edwards is the second choice of 23 percent of those who plan on going to the caucus, in particular those who prefer Sen. Joseph Biden and Gov. Bill Richardson as their first choice. Those who prefer Sen. Chris Dodd are split between Clinton and Edwards. In the Democratic caucuses, a candidate needs to be preferred by at least 15 percent of those in attendance at a precinct meeting. If they don't get that 15 percent, they are considered non-viable and their supporters may choose a different candidate to back.

Politico notes that Edwards has another advantage. Edwards' campaign "boasts the most deeply rooted rural operation, allowing it to possibly win small precincts across the state that could prove crucial in the final tally."

This is not an unfamiliar situation for Edwards. In 2004, most polls taken a few weeks before the caucuses showed him in 4th place. But a poll done the day before showed he had moved into second, which is where he finished.

Ron Paul Could Do Well in New Hampshire

It's all about the independents in New Hampshire. How well a candidate does in the Granite State's primary can often depend on how many of those independents he or she attracts. And Felice Belman, executive editor of the liberal Concord Monitor, and Joe McQuaid, publisher of the conservative New Hampshire Union Leader, say the candidate who might get a lot of support from independents this year is Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul.

"He doesn't show up much in the polls, but yes I do think he could do very well here," McQuaid told Melissa Block on All Things Considered. "I don't think he'll do well past here, but I think he'll surprise people."

Belman agreed

"His issues are so disparate that he'll pull from a lot of different groups ...fiscal conservatives ... anti-abortion people ... anti-war people. That's not a typical kind of primary voter. He'll take away from everybody."

While both journalists think that the voters of New Hampshire are watching Iowa closely, neither thinks that the state's voters are waiting to see the results before making up their minds about who to support.

"If there is a surprise in Iowa, that'll make people perhaps reconsider who that surprising person is," says Belman. "But I don't think they are waiting to see what is happening in Iowa."

December 27, 2007

Could Bhutto's Death Affect the Outcome of Races?

In a few moments, in a country thousands of miles away, the race for the two parties presidential nominations may have shifted. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto reintroduces the issue of security from terrorism only a few days before the Iowa caucuses.

The lack of focus on security had particularly boosted candidates like Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama, enabling them to downplay their lack of experience and talk about change. It hurt candidates like Rudy Giuliani, who had built his whole campaign around his security credentials as the mayor of New York during the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

But Bhutto's death means that GOP candidates like Guiliani and John McCain - who have talked about their experience and security credentials - can re-emphasize that message. For Democrat Hillary Clinton, it underscores her message about the importance of having someone as president who isn't learning on the job.

And you can sense from the candidates' comments today that they are aware of this shift, with some already talking about how their security experience is better than their opponents. For instance, McCain took a swipe at Giuliani, noting that "I think he did a great job post-9/11 handling a post-crisis situation. I don't know how that credential - how that provides one the credentials to address national security issues."

Candidates Condemn Bhutto Assassination

Almost all of the candidates running for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations released statements today condemning the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

* Sen. Joe Biden said that "Like her father before her, Benazir Bhutto worked her whole life, and gave her life, to help Pakistan become a democratic, secular and modern Muslim country."

* John Edwards described her as a "brave and historic leader for Pakistan."

* Mike Huckabee said that while Bhutto's death was troubling, "we are reminded that while our democracy has flaws, it stands as a shining beacon of hope for nations and people around the world who seek peace and opportunity through self-government."

* Sen. Chris Dodd, who said he had been in touch with Bhutto in the past few weeks, said her death shows the "experienced leadership our country needs at a time when critical regions around the world are in turmoil."

* Mitt Romney said her death shows the "reality of global, violent radical jihadism around the world."

* Sen. Barack Obama described her as "a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people."

* Sen. John McCain said her death "deeply saddened him" and that it "underscores yet again the grave dangers we face in the world today and particularly in countries like Pakistan, where the forces of moderation are arrayed in a fierce battle against those who embrace violent Islamic extremism."

* Sen. Hillary Clinton, who noted that she had known Bhutto for many years, called her death "a tragedy for her country and a terrible reminder of the work that remains to bring peace, stability, and hope to regions of the globe too often paralyzed by fear, hatred, and violence."

* Rudy Giuiani said the assassination was a "tragic event for Pakistan" and that "Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere - whether in New York, London, Tel-Aviv or Rawalpindi - is an enemy of freedom."

* Gov. Bill Richardson called Bhutto "a courageous woman," and is the only candidate so far to call for the removal of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. Until that happens the U.S. "should suspend military aid to the Pakistani government. Free and fair elections must also be held as soon as possible."

* Rep. Dennis Kucinich called it a "dangerous moment for the world" and that "The United States must change its policy direction in the region. It must stop adding fuel to the fire."

* Rep. Ron Paul said in a radio interview that ""We've supported Musharraf and now it's created some civil strife."

Congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle also condemned the killing, and said that Pakistani elections must go forward. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said Bhutto's bravery "stands in stark contrast to the cowardice of those who remain committed only to chaos, murder and thwarting democracy in Pakistan. It is our expectation that President Musharraf and the Pakistani people will go forward with free and fair elections."

Could Democratic Result in Iowa Affect GOP in N.H.?

Here's an interesting question that's been posed by some following the candidates in the early states: could the Democratic result in Iowa determine who the Republican winner is in New Hampshire?

How could such a scenario work? Well, it has a lot to do with the way independents vote in New Hampshire.

For instance, if Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama doesn't win or do well in Iowa's caucuses a week from today, than many independents who had been planning to vote for him in New Hampshire might have a change of heart. If it doesn't look like he could win the Democratic nomination, and they don't want to vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton, they could decide to go for another favorite with independents - Republican Sen. John McCain. (Independents can vote in either party's primary in New Hampshire.) They could give him enough of a lift to pull an upset over longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney.

If Obama does do well in Iowa, however, those independents could stay with him and that could hurt McCain's chances.

NPR's Ina Jaffe, who is in Iowa, says don't rule out the possibility of this happening. "Right now the whole thing is up for grabs," she says. "Anything seems possible."

Record Caucus Turnout Expected This Year in Iowa

"It's been an incredible caucus season ... we anticipate a record turn out, lots of first time caucus goers."

That's the take of Mary Sharp, editor of the Cedar Rapids Gazette in Iowa. Sharp and Bret Hayworth, political editor at the Sioux City Journal told Robert Siegel on All Things Considered that they've seen few Iowa caucuses like the one this year. Hayworth, who comes from a part of the state that largely votes Republican, says the top three Democrats are drawing the big crowds this year in his area, which is unusual - although Mike Huckabee is also doing well. Sharp, who comes from a more pro-Democrat part of Iowa, says she's hearing all kinds of reason why people are voting for the candidates.

"The differences between people in the same party aren't that great," she says. "So people starting talking about personality, or warmth, or the potential for change. You hear that a lot .. and electability is being talked about a lot ... "

And both Sharp and Hayworth say trying to judge the outcome of this race by the polls can be a big mistake - lots of surprises can still happen.

Sharp, for instance, notes that first time caucus goers may not even be registered voters, and so may not be included by some pollsters. Independents can also change registration night of the caucuses. And for the Democrats, there is the whole issue of viability.

Under the Democratic Party caucus system in Iowa, a candidate must first be determined to be viable. If he or she isn't preferred by 15 percent of the attendees at that precinct, they are determined to be not viable, and their supporters can back other candidates during the rest of the session. That means being the second choice on many caucus-goers' list is important. Sharp says the Edwards people, who have been through this process before in 2004, have worked that angle "pretty well."

Hayworth sees turn out as the key factor for the Republicans, who use a straight "vote for your favorite candidate" system. He notes, for instance, that the caucuses are up against the Orange Bowl football game (Iowa is a football crazy state). The game, the weather, or indifference can kill a candidate's chances if it means his supporters decide to stay home. "It's all about turnout," says Hayworth.

December 26, 2007

Outcomes Hard to Predict in Iowa

As the last few days dribble away before the Iowa caucuses, it's pretty much agreed that no one can confidently predict what going to happen a week from tomorrow night. Oh, there are polls ... lots of them. And while they show some people have slipped and others have surged, all the major candidates remain within striking distance of each other.

For instance, an American Research Group poll a week ago (600 likely Democrats surveyed, error of +/- 4 percent) showed Clinton at 29 percent and Obama at 24 percent. But a Christmas Eve poll showed Clinton with 34 percent and Obama back down at 19 percent. (Edwards polls 20 percent.)

On the other hand, a Strategic Vision poll (600 likely Democratic voters), taken only a couple of days before the ARG one, shows Obama with 30 percent and Clinton and Edwards with 27 each. And in the same period, CNN had it 30 percent for Clinton, 28 for Obama, and 26 for Edwards.

On the Republican side, Dick Bennett, president of the American Research Group, laughs and says "Take eight cards and toss them up in the air." He says there are "very few, very strong" supporters of any of the leading candidates. In the latest ARG poll, Mike Huckabee has come back towards the pack, slipping from 28 percent to 23 percent. And Bennett says Iowan Republicans are telling ARG interviewers who they'll vote for .. and then why they don't like that candidate. "I've never seen anything like it before," he says.

Again, showing the wide difference in these polls, Strategic Vision had Huckabee with 31 percent. Huckabee was doing even better in the CNN survey, racking up 33 percent.

As Ina Jaffe noted in an earlier blog today, the candidates themselves are madly dashing around the state these last few days, trying to convince late-deciders to jump on their bandwagons. But you can bet the real push this week, especially behind the photo ops, is to make sure they can get their know-supporters lined up and ready to go to the caucus meetings next Thursday.

But getting supporters lined up too early can hurt too. Bennett points out that in 1992 in New Hampshire, George H.W. Bush identified supporters early. But many of them changed their minds and went to Pat Buchanan. So Bush ended up bringing many of his opponents' supporters to the polls.

4:30 PM ET | 12-26-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Another New Hampshire Paper Slams Romney

Mitt Romney must be asking himself what he ever did to annoy the editorial boards of two of New Hampshire's larger papers. Whatever it was, their decisions to rake him over the coals publicly could not come at a worse time for his campaign. (That noise the former Massachusetts governor can hear over the Christmas carols is the sound of Sen. John McCain charging up from behind.)

Last week, the more liberal Concord Monitor wrote an editorial entitled "Romney should not be president," and called him "a disquieting figure who sure looks like the next president and most surely must be stopped." What made this broadside even more damaging is that the paper has not officially endorsed a candidate yet, which made this an anti-endorsement.

Then today, the Manchester Union-Leader, the state's largest, most conservative and most influential paper, piled on Romney. In an editorial, the paper notes that Romney has been in the state more times than any other candidate, that his rallies have been mostly well-attended, and that he has other advantages like money, organization and that most of the people in the state know who he is because of his years as Massachusetts' governor.

But, the editorial adds, he hasn't been able to close the deal, and that's because he lacks one thing that McCain "has in spades: conviction." People can sense, it adds, that Romney's words are "memorized but not heart-felt."

The Union-Leader does have a horse in this race - it has already endorsed McCain as the best Republican candidate.

A Reporter's Christmas in Iowa

This was a good day to get ready for the onslaught to come. Candidates begin campaigning again in Iowa Wednesday morning. In perusing their various schedules I noticed that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be here over the weekend. Since Giuliani has staked his fortunes on the Florida primary on January 29th and on the February 5th states, this 11th hour visit to Iowa is one of this campaign season's mysteries. Polls show him coming in a very distant third or fourth here.

Skating on Thin Ice

The metaphor is irresistible: Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, he of the single digit poll numbers, gliding around in circles on a downtown Des Moines ice rink.

The Democratic candidate moved his family to Des Moines, all the better to be close to potential caucus goers. It hasn't done him any detectable good in the polls. But it did mean he had a home to which he could invite about two dozen Iowa staffers who couldn't make it to their own homes on Christmas. And before the chili and hot chocolate, they all went skating together.

One the skaters was Henry Johnson, Dodd's field organizer for northwest Iowa. What follows is the first interview I have ever done while skating. (I'm not from L.A., I'm from Chicago. I skate.)

Henry graduated from Columbia Union College in Takoma Park, Maryland just last year. He's been with the campaign for 4 months, working 18 hour days,7 days a week. "You represent the candidate," he says. "It's a big responsibility and a privilege." He talked about really getting involved in the communities where he organizes.

How involved? "Well, I painted somebody's house once." He'd wanted them to have a campaign event at their home, they said it was a mess, so he painted it for them.

This is the first time he hasn't been home for Christmas and his mother's upset. It's made worse by the fact that everyone else in his family is a Republican and he's abandoning them this year to help a Democrat.

So, how does he soldier on when he knows that things don't look good for his guy? It's easy for him, he says, because he's come to respect Dodd so much, both for his positions and for the way he treats his staff like family. "I'm not embarrassed to be working for him. It's not like the day after the election I'm going to want to rip the bumper sticker off my car."

Henry is game, an adventurer. He's from Georgia and this was his first time on skates. He did just fine.

Post script

At the NPR/Iowa Public Radio debate, Dodd said he was buying his daughters (Grace, 6 and Christina, 2) "Iowa toys" for Christmas. In an interview with Morning Edition's Steve Innskeep that aired on Christmas morning, he said he could not reveal what those toys were because presents had not been opened yet and the girls could hear him.

So I asked Dodd about it at the skating rink and it can now be revealed! The Dodd daughters received children's books by Iowa authors and some handmade wood craft toys, including a tic tac toe set, trucks and cars, and "some kind of macrame, uh, um.... " "Like a yarn thing?" I suggested unhelpfully. "Yeah, that's it," he said,"a yarn thing."

--Ina Jaffe

9:08 AM ET | 12-26-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

December 21, 2007

The Accidental Deregulation of the FEC

Campaign finance laws not crazy enough for you? Check this out.

The Senate left town this week without resolving a deadlock over nominations to the Federal Election Commission. The upshot: Come January, the FEC won't be able to decide anything.

The commission officially has six members. This year it's had five. Thanks to the deadlock, three are going away. That leaves Republican David Mason and Democrat Ellen Weintraub. Both of their terms have expired, by the way. They can keep serving until their replacements arrive.

By law, the commission needs four affirmative votes for any action.

So, at least for now, the FEC can't respond when candidates ask for advice, can't write regulations, can't even enforce the law. The pending enforcement actions date from the 2004 and 2006 campaigns -- yes, that's how long these things take -- but they define the rules for politicians and advocacy groups right now. And the advisory opinions guide requesters and everybody else as to what's permissible.

The FEC may be the least-liked agency in Washington (certainly so on Capitol Hill), but nobody before ever tried to disable it like this.

The irony is that it's probably not deliberate. Rather, it's collateral damage from the upheavals at the Justice Department.

Long before the storm broke over the decision to fire U.S. attorneys, and alleged politicization in DOJ's Voting Rights Section, one appointee from Voting Rights, Hans von Spakovsky, had been installed at the FEC. He was a recess appointee, as were Democrats Robert Lenhard, a labor lawyer, and Steven Walther, a Nevada lawyer and friend of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Salaries for recess appointees run only until the end of the next session of Congress -- i.e., now -- and when President Bush nominated the three for full terms, several Democratic senators objected to von Spakovsky.

Von Spakovsky has a long and aggressive record supporting strict voter identification laws. Civil rights groups call that discriminatory. Reid urged separate votes on the three nominees. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said they should be voted on as a group, the traditional way, and he calculated that Reid wouldn't leave Walther dangling. But Reid did.

And there we are: the most heavily financed presidential campaign in history, money flowing by the millions to House and Senate candidates, advocacy groups pushing the limits on what's regulated or not. And the enforcement agency, well, out of commission.

-- Peter Overby

Visits to Huckabee, Edwards Websites Surge

It's not the most important indicator of how a candidate is doing, but it is another measurement that helps create an overall-picture: the amount of time that people spend online each month looking at websites created by presidential candidates. And the folks at Complete, which measures this kind of statistical information, have released the Candidates Face Time data for November.

And the big face time winners are ... (drum roll, please) Mike Huckabee and John Edwards. Huckabee saw the amount of time people spent at his websites increase by 194 percent. Edwards's went up 181 percent. (Barack Obama still gets the most visits over all for Democrats, but his growth was much slower than Edwards in November.) TechPresident reports that both were helped by popular videos on their sites: Huckabee's Chuck Norris endorsement, and Edwards for his Parsing of Politics attack on Hilary Clinton.

When it comes to online face time, however, one candidate reigns supreme. Texas Rep. Ron Paul still gets almost twice as much online attention as the person in second-place, Huckabee.

McCain Denies Allegations He Did Lobbyist Favors

If there is one thing that separates Sen. John McCain from the rest of the pack of candidates in the eyes of many primary and caucus voters, it's his integrity and willingness to stick to his principles regardless of the heat he takes for doing so. In fact, when the Des Moines Register gave him its endorsement for the Republican nomination for president earlier this month, it specifically mentioned those qualities as being some of the main reasons it was doing so.

So he hasn't wasted anytime dealing with allegations that he did favors for a Washington lobbyist or her clients. The allegations apparently are based on an investigation being carried out by The New York Times. (Word of the investigation originally appeared on the Drudge Report website.) McCain has hired prominent Washington lawyer Robert Bennett to handle the situation. Bennett also defended McCain in 1989 during the Senate ethics committee investigation into five senators and their dealings with convicted savings-and-loan executive Charles Keating.

McCain says he finds the timing of the investigation "very interesting" and that he is not going to allow a repeat of the 2000 South Carolina primary where false personal rumors about his illegitimately fathering a black child may have cost him the election.

At Year's End, Both Parties Races Still Wide Open

What a long, strange presidential nomination race it's been ... so far. As 2007 comes to a close, NPR's Mara Liaason reports that long time frontrunners for their party's presidential nominations are suddenly struggling to either keep their leads or regain them. Candidates once written off as unknown or too inexperienced are suddenly surging. And a guy from Texas who never seems to get much media attention out fund-raises all the other candidates running for his party's nomination.

For months and months, it looked like Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign team was the New England Patriots of the Democratic Party — it just couldn't lose. Clinton had the endorsements, the money, the poll numbers, you name it. She was on her way to convincing every one she was the inevitable Democratic nominee.

But as Mara notes, in October the pre-race ended, people in the early voting states started to pay more attention and the Clinton campaign blinked. It was the debate in Philadelphia at the end of October where Hillary Clinton first seemed to falter, with her "I'm for it, I'm against it" answer to the need for driver's licenses for illegal immigrants in New York.

And it took Obama a while to get into gear, says Democratic strategist Bill Carrick. At the same time, he says, the Clinton persona as the candidate of experience "just ran out of gas," and she hasn't been able to change her direction very well. Meanwhile, Obama is trying to sure up his weakness on foreign affairs, and John Edwards has continued to build his campaign. What was once see as inevitable has become a three-way race.

Over on the other side the nomination is also still up for grabs — which Republican insiders say is unusual for the "follow the leader party. For instance, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the leader for a long time in Iowa. But recent polls show that he has surrendered that lead to Mike Huckabee, largely thanks to the surge of support among evangelical Christians for the former Arkansas governor.

Huckabee may be looking good now, but his campaign faces a larger question — does it have legs? Is he a spoiler, bringing Romney down in Iowa so that another candidate, like McCain, can undermine him in New Hampshire? Or will the funding Huckabee needs so badly to stick around come if he does win in Iowa? Then there is Rudy Giuliani, whose Feb. 5 strategy is looking more like a "Hail Mary" pass, as one party strategist described it. It might work, he notes, but most times those passes don't connect.

And then don't forget Ron Paul, who has shown that he can raise enough money to stay in the race for a long time, even if the polls seem to be overwhelmingly against him.

As Mara describes it, a complete free-for-all.

December 20, 2007

Fred Thompson Looks for Magic in Bus Tour of Iowa

The people who go to former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson's political gatherings say they are quite unlike those of other candidates: "Less like a revival, much more relaxed than that," said one Iowan.

And as NPR's Robert Smith reports, that is exactly what his campaign people want. They hope people will come to these meetings and soak up the Fred. But they are now worried that not enough soaking is happening, since Thompson waited so long to actually announce his candidacy. So he's now on a 50-city and town tour of Iowa, so that the Fred can be spread around to more places.

But even as he tries to get out more, there is a certain film-timing quality to his stops. For instance, in Tipton, Iowa, his tour of the town lasted about 17-minutes — or about the length of a good action sequence in a movie. Another stop was canceled altogether because the sidewalks were too icy.

People seem to like Thompson, Smith says, although there are more laughs than cheers at his meetings with Iowans. As for his late entry into the GOP contest, Thompson dismisses that concern, saying these days making a decision about which candidate to support is like going to the dentist; people put it off for as long as they can.

And he's betting his campaign on the hope that enough caucus goers haven't made those 'appointments' yet and will go to him instead.

Romney Didn't 'Literally' See Dad March with King

Do Mitt Romney and his team do all the necessary fact checking before he says something on the campaign trail? Or do they think that other people won't fact check statements by a major presidential candidate? For instance, his remark that he remembers seeing his dad, former Michigan Governor George Romney, marching with civil rights leader Martin Luther King. Jr. in the 60s in Michigan.

Romney originally said it in his recent major speech on religion in America. Then he repeated the remark during an appearance on NBC's Meet the Press: "You can see what I believed and what my family believed by looking at our lives. My dad marched with Martin Luther King. My mom was a tireless crusader for civil rights."

Unfortunately, it looks like it never happened. Certainly not Mitt Romney seeing it, and maybe not the march at all. Now Romney campaign officials are saying that he only meant the remark figuratively, not literally, when he said he saw his father and King march together.

The Romney campaign offered a 1967 book written by Stephen Hess and Washington Post political columnist David Broder, as confirmation that George Romney marched with King in Grosse Pointe in 1963.

But the Boston alternative paper, the Boston Phoenix, said it could find no evidence of Romney marching with King. And the Detroit Free Press said its archives showed no record of King marching in Grosse Pointe in 1963 or of then-Gov. Romney taking part in a King's march in another part of Detroit in June of that year. Romney did march in Grosse Point a few days after the June march, but King was not there according to eye-witnesses.

The elder Romney, however, was well-known for his support of civil rights. The Romney campaign said it was going to further research his papers for evidence of his contact with King.

Update: The Boston Phoenix is now reporting that the Romney campaign is saying that George W. Romney and Martin Luther King Jr. marched together in June, 1963 -— although possibly not on the same day or in the same city.

"Romney, according to one piece of written source material provided by the campaign, made a 'surprise' appearance at a small march in Grosse Pointe, Michigan, in late June — several days after King led a much larger march in Detroit. Romney spokesperson Eric Fehrnstrom suggests that these two were part of the same 'series' of events, co-sponsored by King and the NAACP, and is thus consistent with [Mitt] Romney's claim that 'I saw my father march with Martin Luther King.' "

The campaign also provided a quote from a book that said the elder Romney "was among the prominent whites marching with Reverend King" in the [Detroit Freedom March on June 23, 1963] (which the book erroneously says took place on July 23)." But as the Phoenix notes, contemporaneous and historical accounts say Romney didn't take part in this march because it was on a Sunday and that Romney did not make public appearances on the Sabbath.

Kerrey Apologizes to Obama for Muslim Remark

Former Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey has apologized to follow Democrat Barack Obama.

The Associated Press is reporting that the apology was for any unintentional insult Kerrey committed by raising the presidential candidate's Muslim heritage while endorsing rival candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton. (Obama is a Christian.)

In an interview with the Washington Post on Sunday detailing why he was supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton, Kerrey (who is currently the president of New School University in NYC) also mused on some of the qualifications Obama had for president: "It's probably not something that appeals to him, but I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama, and that his father was a Muslim and that his paternal grandmother is a Muslim. There's a billion people on the planet that are Muslims and I think that experience is a big deal."

Kerrey sent a letter to Obama yesterday, lauding the Illinois senator's qualifications to be president and saying that he "never meant to harm his candidacy." Kerrey told AP in a telephone interview that he sent the letter on his own and had not spoken to Clinton or her campaign about the comments he made Sunday in Iowa. Obama spokesman Bill Burton said the senator accepted Kerrey's apology, sent to the campaign in the mail and via e-mail.

Minuteman Founder's Support for Huckabee Shaky

Jim Gilchrist, one of the founders of the Minuteman Project, seems a little shaky in his support of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

Gilchrist, whose group monitors border areas in protest of what it considers inadequate enforcement measures by the federal government, made headlines last week when he announced his support for Huckabee — who was then quick to point to this support as a way to counter charges from former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney that he was "too liberal" on immigration policy.

But then Monday there were reports from conservative online news outlets that Gilchrist was reconsidering his support for Huckabee because he had learned that Huckabee's plan included measures he didn't agree with. Yet a day later, in a series of radio interviews, Gilchrist said that he planned to stick with Huckabee, even if his immigration plan was not perfect.

One thing is certain: Gilchrist's support of Huckabee has further widen the gap between him and many of his former anti-immigration supporters. The Americans for Legal Immigration, or ALIPAC, has a posting on its website, signed by leaders of 84 other "immigration enforcement" groups, attacking Gilchrist for this action.

"We denounce Jim Gilchrist's solo endorsement of a pro-amnesty and Open Borders candidate for President. Mr. Gilchrist does NOT speak for us! ... Mike Huckabee is pro-amnesty and favors a 'path to citizenship' for illegal aliens currently in the US, which would require a lifting of the current penalties," the posting declares.

Report: Tancredo Will Drop Presidential Bid

Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado, whose opinions on immigration — both legal and illegal -— have given him a national audience, will announce today that he is dropping his bid for his party's presidential nomination.

The Associated Press reports that a person close to the Tancredo campaign said that the congressman will make the announcement at a press conference in Des Moines. For their part, campaign officials would only say that Tancredo will make a "major announcement" on Thursday.

Tancredo has not shied away from controversy since announcing his candidacy, He ran a controversial ad that showed a terrorist attack in an american shopping mall. He said in the ad that such an attack was possible in the U.S. as the result of open borders that let 'jihadists' into the country. He has also taken credit for some of the political woes that Sen. John McCain suffered during the summer and in states like Iowa, attacking the Arizona senator for his support of President Bush's failed immigration bill. (McCain's has enjoyed a resurgence recently with several key endorsements in Iowa and New Hampshire.)

Tancredo has said that he will not seek a sixth term in Congress, but that he might try for the open Senate seat in Colorado that will be available next election due to the retirement of Sen. Wayne Allard.

Update: Tancredo has withdrawn from the race for the Republican nomination for president, and endorsed Mitt Romney.

December 19, 2007

What Endorsement of McCain Means for Lieberman

When Independent Democrat Sen. Joe Lieberman announced his support for Republican Sen. John McCain, it had more than a few people wondering if the Democratic party might take some action against him.

So Ken Rudin looks at the history of other Democrats who have defied party labels and backed Republicans in this week's Political Junkie column. Some have paid a price, some haven't.

Also, Ken looks at the familial ties between Reps. Mark Udall (D-CO) and Tom Udall (D-NM) and Republican Senator Gordon Smith. Looks like the Bush and Clinton families aren't the only ones in the politics business.

McCain's Presidential Bid Showing New Life

William Goldman, the Hollywood screenwriter who wrote such films as "Marathon Man," "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid," and "The Princess Bride," has two famous rules about Hollywood: nobody knows anything and structure is everything.

The campaign of Republican Senator John McCain shows the same rules can apply in their own way to the quest for the presidential nomination. Over the summer, McCain's bid was all but written off by pundits, politicians and experts because of mismanagement and fund-raising problems. Most people thought he would be forced to drop out of the campaign long before Christmas.

The person who didn't write it off was McCain himself. He stuck to his "structure" and kept campaigning, regardless of the situation. (At one point, he even had to lay off some of his staff because of a lack of funds.)

And as NPR's Audie Cornish reports rumors pf McCain's demise have been greatly exaggerated. He is seeing brighter days on the campaign trail, and is back in the hunt for New Hampshire. He's been getting a lot of endorsements, from people like Boston Red Sox star pitcher Curt Shilling and Independent Democrat Sen. Joe Lieberman (more on that in Ken Rudin's Political Junkie column today), and many newspapers.

McCain says he knows this endorsement won't necessarily get people to vote for him, but they will push people to give him another look. Currently most polls show McCain is now in second place in New Hampshire, anywhere from four to eleven percentage points behind longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney.

Huckabee's Wily Christmas Campaign

It's a pretty wily tactic ... the Christmas ad designed to catch your political rivals completely off-guard.

And as NPR's Martin Kaste reports, it's been a particularly effective one for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in Iowa. After former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney aired two negative ads that went after Huckabee's record in immigration and crime fighting, Huckabee did not fire back — instead, he ran a Christmas-themed ad, with heavy emphasis on its religious meaning. In the ad, Huckabee said it wasn't the time of the year for more political ads, because he knew people minds were on other things. And he just wanted to wish them Merry Christmas.

(Huckabee was not the first Republican candidate to air a Christmas-oriented ad. Rep. Ron Paul was actually first to the post. And the Democrats are getting in on the act ... just this morning, Senator Barack Obama released a 'Holiday' ad, with one of Obama's daughters wishing 'Merry Christmas' and the other 'Happy Holidays.')

Bill Hillsman, the award-winning ad man who created campaigns for independents like former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura, said Huckabee's effort will stand out from the noise of other political ads, and is a preemptive strike against anyone who tried to take him down.

Romney people, for their part, say they will be respectful of the time of the year, but they will continue to bring up issues of importance to the citizens of Iowa.

December 18, 2007

Candidates Target Ads to Fit Region, Demographics

If you were visiting South Carolina from Iowa, and heard or saw a Barack Obama campaign ad, you might think to yourself, "Wait a minute, that's not what I'm hearing back on the farm in Iowa."

That because, as NPR's Martin Kaste explains, the candidates target their ads to fit their audience and region. For instance, that Obama ad in South Carolina, which tells the the Illinois senator's personal story and how, as a young boy, he was raised by a single mother, is aimed at African-Americans. It's been so successful, with its smooth rhythm and blues sound track, other candidates are trying the same approach.

Republicans, meanwhile, have been buying lots of airtime on the Christian rock station in Des Moines. Station manager, Eric Boatright, says while Democratic candidates have inquired about advertising on the station, none of them have aired any commercials. Republicans (except for maybe Rep. Tom Tancredo) and Democrats are running ads on Spanish-language radio stations in the early primary states - although none of the ads touch on the immigration issue.

There is a reason for that. As Martin reports, you can be too specific with your ads, especially with Spanish advertisements. "The days when you could hide your Hispanic political-marketing efforts under a bushel are gone," said Luis Clemens, an editor at the Hispanic political Web site Candidato U.S.A. "Everyone's going to be able to find out about it and translate those ads very quickly."

Clinton's Friends Take a Shot at Obama For Her

The Clinton campaign may have gone all cuddly in Iowa, but her friends are still out to kneecap Barack Obama.

The PAC of the public employees union AFSCME quietly dropped $34,083 yesterday on its first anti-Obama mailing in the state. The flier should hit the mailboxes of some 70,000 Iowa women Wednesday or Thursday. It's about the need for universal health care, bolstering the Clinton argument that Obama's reform plan leaves many people behind.

AFSCME represents 1.4 million state, county and municipal workers. The union endorsed Clinton in October, and spent about 34 g's on a mail piece praising her earlier this month.

Going into the home stretch in Iowa, Clinton has far and away the most support from outside groups — nearly $500,000 worth of mail, phone banks, television, even Google and Yahoo ads, paid for by AFSCME, the American Federation of Teachers PAC, and the pro-choice group EMILY's List. John Edwards has gotten about $34,000 worth of independent support from the United Brotherhood of Carpenters PAC — everything from bumper stickers to hard-hat decals. And the International Association of Firefighters PAC has plunked down more than $11,000 to buy banners and billboards promoting Christopher Dodd's bid.

If there's any similar activity by independent actors on the Republican side, it hasn't been disclosed yet.

-- Peter Overby

Giulinai Rolls Dice With Feb. 5 Strategy

The polls are showing that Rudy Giuliani's campaign is in trouble.

Recent surveys from CBS News, the American Research Group and CNN all show that Giuliani's once formidable national lead over his rivals has almost disappeared. All of these above polls show Iowa frontrunner Mike Huckabee only a percent point or two behind him, or in a tie.

Giuliani has not made much of an effort in either Iowa or New Hampshire, and over the weekend there were reports that he was cutting back on his ad buys in the Granite State. His strategy has always been to ignore the early voting states and concentrate on big states like California, New Jersey and New York on Feb. 5. As NPR's Ina Jaffe reported on the blog on Saturday, Giuliani gave a major speech in Tampa on Saturday as part of that effort.

But now some campaign observers are wondering if perhaps he made a mistake not campaigning more aggressively in the early states. People love winners, they point out, and if Huckabee wins Iowa and South Carolina, and does well in New Hampshire, and Giuliani is down in the pack in all three, then Huckabee will go into the Feb. 5 states with a "winners" aura.

That's why Florida on Jan. 29th has taken on special importance for Giuliani. Polls show him with a 13-point lead, although Huckabee is gaining there as well. The Giuliani campaign people, who have repeatedly said they are not worried despite what the polls are saying, are counting on a win there to him return some of the luster to the former New York mayor's campaign.

1:57 PM ET | 12-18-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Sen. Clinton Tries More Personal Approach

In Hillary Clinton, one senses a longing for that Sally Field's moment, when she can cry out loud, "You like me, you really, really like me."

But as NPR's David Greene reports from the Clinton campaign in Iowa, that likability factor is weighing heavily on the minds of the candidate and her top organizers. So Clinton is crisscrossing Iowa, trying to reintroduce her "real" self. Clinton has toned down her message of "experience counts the most" and is going for "I want you to see my real side."

Her campaign has launched a new website called "The Hillary I Know." She has old friends traveling the state, talking about her. And in Johnston, Iowa yesterday, she talked to a crowd about how she wanted them to get to know who she was and what she does "when no one is listening, or taking notes and recording it."

David says that what you hear from a lot of people who have seen Clinton is that she has won them over, and that they think that she's the smartest and most experienced Democratic candidate. But they worry she won't get many cross-over votes from Republicans. Even if Iowans "like" her, they worry she can't win the presidency.

December 17, 2007

Huckabee Calls Attacks On His Record "Poisonous"

Mike Huckabee had a brief news conference with reporters in Los Angeles today. He's there to raise money and for an appearance on the Larry King show. So he decided to " ... give you guys (meaning reporters) a few minutes to have at me... I'll probably deeply regret it, but that's part of the game we play these days."

In response to the claims that Mitt Romney's made in recent mailers and TV ads that Huckabee's soft on crime, the former Arkansas Governor said: "I did something he (Romney) never had to do. I carried out the death penalty 16 times, more than any governor in my state's history."

"Every time Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson attacks me, my feeling is we're a week away from Christmas and I think the country could use a little good will and peace on Earth more than they can [use] some tit for tat in the political arena, " Huckabee said. That's a point he makes in his new TV ad/Christmas greeting.

Huckabee called the attack mailers "poisonous ... I think some of my opponents are clearly frustrated that they have spent millions and millions of their dollars, and they are now significantly behind me ... Despicable tactics are the only thing they have left in their arsenal."

That was Candidate Huckabee. Pastor Huckabee was also on display.

He said that religion is playing a bigger role in this election than in past ones. He's certainly helped that along by running a TV spot touting himself as a Christian leader. But he said that he was getting more scrutiny on this score than any of the other candidates, "and particularly the depth of questions that I'm asked. I don't hear any other candidate asked in depth about the nuances of his church's doctrine like I am. And there are a lot more questions that are scrutinizing the inner workings of being a Baptist ... If you like would like to go and ask everyone of the other candidates to describe some of the details of the doctrine of their church, I think that would be fair game. To ask me singularly to talk about mine, I'm not sure how that's relevant ..."

-- Ina Jaffe

Lieberman Gives McCain a Boost in New Hampshire

Looks like John McCain hit the trifecta on Sunday.

As NPR's senior Washington editor Ron Elving explains on This Week in Politics on Day to Day, it's been a pretty good 24-hour period for the Arizona senator. On Sunday, he got two big newspaper endorsements: the Des Moines Register and the Boston Globe. Then today, his old buddy Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Independent Democrat from Connecticut, announced that he was throwing his support behind McCain.

The Register endorsement won't help much — he's fourth or fifth in most polls there, and he hasn't put much time or effort into the state. But he has put a lot of time into New Hampshire, and that's where the Globe and Lieberman endorsements could help. The Globe is the region's biggest paper, and McCain already had the endorsement of one of the state's leading papers, the Manchester Union-Leader. And since independents can vote for whomever they want in the primary, getting Lieberman's blessing could help with that.

We'll see if all these developments will help McCain gain more ground on current New Hampshire frontrunner Mitt Romney in the two and a half weeks left before the primary.

Romney Attacks Huckabee's Crime-Fighter Credentials

On the defensive in Iowa, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continues to try to undermine surging support for his Republican rival Mike Huckabee. Tomorrow, Romney launches a new television ad in Iowa that takes aim at Huckabee's credentials as a crime-fighter.

The ad notes that in 10 years as governor of Arkansas, Huckabee granted pardons or commuted the sentences of more than a thousand convicts - more than his three predecessors combined. Romney pardoned no one during his four years in the Massachusetts governor's office.

Like another Romney ad that debuted last week, suggesting Huckabee is soft on illegal immigration, this one acknowledges that both candidates are "pro-life governors," and that "both support a constitutional amendment to protect traditional marriage." In that way, Romney may be trying to piggyback on Huckabee's newfound support from social conservatives.

- Scott Horsley

Many Voters Won't Pay Attention Until '08 World Series

For people who've been following the two presidential nomination campaigns for several months now, and are looking forward to see what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, the suggestion that many Americans won't even start to pay attention to who is running for president until after the 2008 World Series might seem wildly mistaken. But that what Charles Cook — the writer of the nonpartisan newsletter, the Cook Political Report, which has been analyzing national elections since 1984 — believes.

Cook made the remark as part of a speech he gave at Fordham University about the 2008 elections. He also called the current political environment the "weirdest" he has ever seen.

New York political consultant Jerry Skurnik, who went to hear Cook's talk and blogged about it on his website, Room 8. Skurnik says this notion of Cook's that people start to pay attention to politics at different times supports a theory that he has.

For people who follow everything in politics, there has never been a better time. Thanks to 24x7 cable, the Internet, broadcast radio, satellite radio, newspapers, magazine, etc. political junkies (apologies to Ken Rudin) can follow almost every door-to-door visit of a candidate in Iowa or New Hampshire.

But there is a dark lining to this silver cloud, Skurnik suggests. For people who don't follow politics, those many folks who don't pay attention until after the last pitch of the series, this is the worse time. In the past, when there were fewer choices, they would rely primarily on the evening newscast, or their local paper, to relay the latest political information the needed. But now, with the wide range of choices of media, many people don't regularly watch any newscast of any kind, or even subscribe to a paper.

So in the end, Spurnik argues, this section of the public is actually less informed that they were before, despite all the information available.

He writes that this difference in when people begin to follow an election could explain why some pundits make predictions that are decidedly off the mark, or miss some trend that ultimately propels a candidate to victory.

Ron Paul Raises $6 Million in a 24-Hour Period

Judging by what you see on this You Tube video that comes from Ron Paul headquarters in New York this weekend as he passed the $12 million fund-raising mark for this quarter, his young supporters like to par-tay!

But by the time the sun came up Monday morning, the $12 million total was a thing of the past. The current total (as of this posting) on Ron Paul's website is $18.201,000. It comes as a result of what might be the largest single-day fund-raising total ever in presidential history — $6 million on Sunday. (His supporters call these single-day fund-raising efforts 'money bombs.')

It also means that regardless of how he does in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, he'll have enough money to continue his campaign into the 22 states that vote on Feb. 5. And he'll probably out raise all the other Republican candidates, including the very hot Mike Huckabee, for this quarter.

Say what you want about Paul and his Don Quixote-like quest for the Republican presidential nomination, he has tapped into a powerful political vein. His supporters are among the campaign's most passionate, and are willing to go the extra, extra mile for him ... including doing things like renting blimps on their own dime in order to take spread his name around.

Paul has repeatedly said that he will not conduct an independent campaign for the presidency if he does not win the GOP nomination. Last week, after the Des Moines Register Republican debate said he was 99.99 percent sure he would not run as an independent. No doubt his supporters are hoping that .01 percent chance carries the day.

So How Much Is a Newspaper Endorsement Worth?

Once upon a time, a long time ago and far, far away, the endorsement of a state biggest newspaper could give a candidate running in a presidential primary or caucus a boost. But those were the days when the newspaper was the main source of information for most of the people who would be voting. These days, in a 24x7 media universe, when the information just never stops coming, a newspaper endorsement and $1.50 will get you a small cup of coffee.

But in Iowa this kind of endorsement might still be able to give a candidate a last minute lift, as NPR's Don Gonyea explains on Morning Edition. For Sen. Hillary Clinton, whose campaign has been a bit wobbly lately, getting the endorsement from the Des Moines Register was a much needed morale boost if nothing else. The paper's editorial board said that she (and Sen. John McCain on the Republican side) are the "most competent and ready to lead." Her main opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, however, liked what the Register had to say about him too. So his campaign borrowed a trick from movie producers whose films may not get a completely positive review — they snipped out the parts they liked and focused on them.

As for McCain, who is fourth or fifth in most polls in Iowa, the paper likes the way he has "stuck to his beliefs in the face of opposition from other elected leaders and the public." But as Don Gonyea says this endorsement probably won't help McCain so much, but it is a slap at Mitt Romney, and to a lesser degree Mike Huckabee, the two current frontrunners. In essence, the paper's editorial board is saying that it doesn't believe that Romney and Huckabee are ready for prime time.

The caucuses themselves are just a couple of weeks away. If you still not certain just what a caucus is, or how it works, then take NPR political editor Ken Rudin's interesting, and fun, video tour of Iowa caucus history.

10:08 AM ET | 12-17-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

December 14, 2007

Giuliani's Florida Speech Breaks No New Ground

Rudy Giuliani delivers a major speech Saturday in Tampa, Florida. It may be inspired by his falling numbers in national polls. It may be inspired by all the attention that Mitt Romney got with his recent speech about his Mormon faith. In any case it breaks no new ground, judging by brief excerpts released by his campaign.

In oblique references to his three marriages and most recent messy divorce, Giuliani has often told voters: "If you are looking for perfection (in me), you are not going to find it," and if he follows the script just released, he'll tell them that again in Tampa.

The speech as a whole plays into Giuliani's persona as the can-do guy. Discussions of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, illegal immigration and "out of control" spending all end with the refrain: "They're (the American people) telling us: Get it done. And we will."

He also will say he's a "leader who's been tested in times of crisis," yet another reference to his much praised and often criticized performance after the attacks of September 11, 2001. And he reminds voters that he's a "leader who has achieved results — results that some people thought were impossible," another reference to the big drop in crime and welfare cases while he was mayor of New York.

The most surprising omission from the speech excerpts? Two words: "New York." Giuliani's taken some criticism for repeatedly telling voters that he can do for America what he did for New York. But many Americans do not see that city as a role model, no matter how much things have improved there.

It's significant that Giuliani's delivering this speech in Florida. His poll numbers in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina show him placing second, third or worse. But he's still riding high in Florida and that state's January 29th primary could give his campaign a boost going into Super-duper Tuesday on February 5th.

- Ina Jaffe

New Poll Gives Obama, Huckabee Large Iowa Leads

T'is the season to be jolly, but there will not be very much holiday cheer in the Clinton and Romney campaign headquarters after they read this poll.

A new poll published today in the Quad City Times of Davenport, Iowa gives both Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee nine point leads over their rivals, just three weeks before the Iowa caucuses.

The poll, conducted with 500 likely caucus-goers from Dec. 10 through Dec. 13, has Obama with 33 percent, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards at 24 percent each. On the Republican side, Huckabee leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 31 to 22 percent.

But wait, there's still hope for the former frontrunners ... or anybody else running for that matter. The poll found that 23 percent of Democrats and 34 percent of Republicans saying they were likely or very likely to change their minds before the caucuses.

The poll, which was conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. All those surveyed had voted in the 2004 and 2006 elections and said they were definitely or almost certain to vote in the caucuses.

Ed Rollins Signs Up for Huckabee Campaign

In a move that shows how much Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee's campaign has grown since last summer, the former Arkansas governor today announced that veteran Republican strategist Ed Rollins has agreed to become his national campaign chairman and a senior adviser.

Rollins was the architect of President Ronald Reagan's landslide victory in 1984, and has worked for other Republican presidents. He ran former New York Rep. Jack Kemp's campaign in 1988. But he's also had a few electoral duds, especially in recent years. He consulted on the campaign of Republican New York Senate contender Kathleen Troia "KT" McFarland in 2006, who failed to win the party's nomination to run against Sen. Hillary Clinton. And he also worked for the campaign of United States Representative Katherine Harris for the U.S. Senate in Florida, although media reports said he left the campaign after he started to question her viability as a candidate. He also worked on Ross Perot's independent bid in 1992.

Rollins told a press conference that he was "very excited" about the Huckabee campaign. and that he understands the difficulty in turning it from an "insurgent" campaign into one that can compete at a national level.

Until know, the campaign has largely relied on volunteer support. Huckabee started today's press conference by thanking the work of all those volunteers, noting that they helped run a "disciplined, frugal" campaign that drove it "beyond what money can buy."

Giuliani Strategy Looks to States That Vote Feb. 5

Rudy Giuliani in a corn field, or behind the wheel of a tractor, or talking grain prices ... hard to picture. Some people just aren't meant to be down on the farm.

But as NPR's Ina Jaffe reports, the Giuliani campaign people are more than aware that their candidate is not exactly a natural fit for the first three states to hold Republican caucuses or primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. So they've build their strategy around doing well in the 22 states that vote on Feb. 5, states like New York, New Jersey, and California (where the latest polls show Giuliani with a 9 point lead over his rivals).

It's a tricky gambit. No candidate in the last 30 years has won the Republican nomination without winning two out of three of those early voting states.

"It's a calculated risk by Giuliani," says Republican pollster Glenn Bolger. "It's hard to claim momentum when you don't have any."

But in a year when Republican primary voters seem unsettled on one candidate in particular, it just might work. If there is no clear leader by Feb. 5, says Republican political analyst and professor at Claremont McKenna College, Jack Pitney — if Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney takes New Hampshire and say, Fred Thompson takes South Carolina — then the path is open for Giuliani to clean up in February.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out today bolsters Pitney's argument. It shows former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee leading with 24 percent, and former Sen. Fred Thompson second with 17 percent. But there are six candidates in total (including Rep. Ron Paul) in double figures. And the average of the last five polls in the state show five candidates running strongly.

So while the other Republican candidates will be battling nor' easters this weekend in New Hampshire and more freezing rain in Iowa, look for Rudy Giuliani spottings in warmer climes, like Florida and California.

December 13, 2007

Democratic Debate Toughens Up a Bit By End

Again with the New Year's resolutions!

At least in today Democratic debate in Iowa, the candidates got to give their own resolutions, rather than decide on one for their opponents. We now know that most of them want to lose weight (not Barack Obama, who wants to be a better husband and dad) and be a good president.

But the debate definitely got sharper in the last half hour. Although there weren't all that many exchanges between the candidates themselves, moderator Carolyn Washburn raised some interesting character issues with each candidate: Sen. Hillary Clinton's being "closed and secretive" during her first attempt at health care reform (her answer: a better communication strategy next time); problems at Dept. of Energy facilities when New Mexico governor Bill Richardson was Energy Secretary; how Sen. Chris Dodd felt when his father was censured for campaign finance improprieties.

The toughest question went to Sen. Joe Biden about several awkward comments he has made in the past about racial issues. Washburn asked if he has trouble dealing with issues of race. Biden defended himself, saying that while "he may have phrased those statements wrongly," he was actually trying to point out the unfair disparity between races in America. Several of those on stage, including Clinton and Barack Obama spoke strongly in Biden's favor.

And that moment really summed up the debate. Tough for a moment, but then pretty chummy.

It was a good debate for most of the candidates, in particular Clinton, Richardson and Edwards. The only hint of a spark came during a question to Obama about how he can talk about a break with the past when he'll have so many Clinton-era advisers. Hillary Clinton chimed in "I'd like to hear the answer to that." Obama straightened his papers, looked up at her and said "I'm looking forward to you advising me, Hillary."

Touche.

Democratic Debate Follows Familar Formula

Forty-five minutes into the Democratic debate in Johnston, Iowa, it a case of deja vu all over again.

Just as with the Republican debate on Wednesday, the format is more of a forum then an actual debate. Once again, economic issues seem to be the focus of moderator Carolyn Washburn's, editor of The Des Moines Register, questions: questions of trade with countries with records of human rights violations, how to balance economic need with the need to reduce global warming, how to manage our relationship with China, what about agribusiness and subsidies ... to some degree it's a policy wonk's dream come true. The format allows the candidates to throw around a lot of facts and figures about their economic plans if elected.

Although there have been no "fireworks" between the candidates, overall the debate seems to have more energy than yesterday. But it's hard to see how this will move Iowans one way or another.

Giuliani Played No Role in Limiting N.Y. Abortions

Say it ain't so Rudy...

The late New York Democratic Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan was fond of saying that people are entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts. Fellow New Yorker and GOP Presidential Candidate Rudy Giuliani might do well to take that to heart.

During Wednesday's final debate in Des Moines before the Iowa caucuses, Giuliani was asked about abortion — never an easy question for a pro-choice candidate in a largely pro-life party. He's mostly managed to finesse the issue until now; professing his belief on the one hand, as he said at the debate, "that ultimately the government should leave that decision to a woman and her conscience," but on the other hand promising to appoint "strict constructionist" judges that would, presumably, overturn Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that guarantees that decision is left to said woman and her conscience.

This time, however, Giuliani went off in a different direction after professing his core pro-choice view, saying: "I would like to see limitations on abortion. I brought those about in New York City. We reduced abortions."

Whoa, says, Kelli Conlin. She's the President of NARAL Pro-Choice of New York, has been there for 15 years, and served on Giuliani's transition team and many of his high-level councils while he was mayor. She can't recall a single limitation he imposed. In fact, she says, he couldn't have limited abortion if he'd wanted to. "Only the state has the power to limit abortions," she said in an interview. "It's all up to the state legislature, which is in Albany."

To the contrary, says Conlin, Giuliani was anything but inclined to limit abortion when he was Mayor. "In fact, one of his key signal achievements was signing a bill which really clamped down on those who would blockade clinics," she said. On signing that measure in 1994, "He basically said 'New York will not be an accommodating place for those who seek to make it difficult for women who want to access their right to choose."

It's true that the abortion rate in New York did drop while Giuliani was mayor, Conlin said, but that was a reflection of the fact that it was dropping nationwide. She says she's getting more and more frustrated with some of the former mayor's statements on his abortion position. "In fact, he was a real booster and champion for reproductive choice and health in New York when he was here, so it's just hard to listen to him backpedaling at this point."

The Giuliani campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

- Julie Rovner

Bush Countdown Calendars Popular Holiday Gift

Does former vice president and Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore have shares in a calendar publishing company? Speaking in Bali, Indonesia, to a group gathered to discuss a new global climate treaty, Gore said the U.S. is the principal obstacle to a comprehensive new treaty. And then he said, to loud applause, that it was only one more year and 40 days until current president George W. Bush leaves office.

Gore is apparently not the only one counting. If you can judge by the displays in books stores in the downtown Washington area, counting down the days until Mr. Bush leaves has turned out to be a popular past time. The calendars titles are a bit blunt ... "His Days Are Numbered," "The Bad President," "The End is Near," and "The Official Countdown," and feature sayings like "Hang in there!"and "Almost done." (Publishers say the sale of Bush calendars are up about 30 percent this year.) A gift, perhaps, for your favorite liberal?

But already there are plans afoot to give conservatives something to "gift" next year. If Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, some publishers are already talking about a "Bill Clinton, First Lady" calendar.

Ron Paul's Blimp May be Grounded by Weather

Lots of his supporters see Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul as a kind of political superman. So, in a way, it's not surprising that he has decided to take to the skies ... so to speak. Paul supporters plan to use a blimp to bring his brand to lots of people over the next few weeks. (Although the bad weather forecast for Boston this weekend may ground a scheduled appearance by Air Paul.)

NPR's Robert Smith has the whole story over at the Bryant Park Project.

Democratic Debate Overshadowed by Steroid Report

It's a pretty good bet that the Democratic presidential candidates won't be humming "Take me out to the ballgame" during breaks in this afternoon's debate in Iowa. In fact, they'll probably be wishing that baseball would just go away until spring training.

There is every likelihood that this afternoon's debate, the last Democratic one scheduled before the January 3 caucuses in Iowa, will be overshadowed by the release of former Democratic Senator George Mitchell's investigation into steroid use in baseball. The report is being released at the same time that the debate starts, 2 p.m. EST.

And if today's affair is anything like Tuesday's rather tame, dry Republican debate in Johnson City, Iowa, it would have trouble generating much enthusiasm anyway.

Meanwhile, NPR's Martin Kaste reports for Morning Edition that things have been rather civil in Iowa between Democrats, at least on TV. There have been very few negative ads so far, as candidates have gone for inspiration over attack. Brooks Jackson, director of factcheck.org, a nonpartisan site that truth-squads the claims made in campaign ads, even went to far as to tell Martin that most of the ads have been "... pretty much content-free and information-challenged."

The candidates probably remember what happened right around this time during the last Democratic caucuses. Then-top contenders Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt went after each other so hard with negative ads, that "notoriously friendly" Iowans (as they were recently described by one national TV reporter) were turned off, and gave most of their votes to John Kerry and John Edwards.

Once bitten, twice shy.

Today's debate can be seen on CNN and will last for 90 minutes. Note that it will be Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel free - they have not been invited to take part in the debate.

December 12, 2007

Huckabee to Romney: Are Jesus and Satan Brothers?

The Republican campaign for president is starting to look like a holy war. Baptist Mike Huckabee enlisted Jesus and Satan in an apparent attempt to discredit Mormon Mitt Romney.

That's right. Jesus and Satan.

Huckabee asks this question in a story appearing this Sunday in The New York Times magazine: "Don't Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?"

"Putting it that way makes it sound like they are equivalent and that perhaps Mormons are devil worshippers," complains Richard Bushman, a Mormon and historian at Columbia University. "Nothing could be further from the truth. Christ is goodness personified; Satan is all evil."

Continue reading "Huckabee to Romney: Are Jesus and Satan Brothers?" »

Republicans Have Polite Final Debate

New Year's resolutions for an opponent?

Well, that's an interesting, out of the blue, question at today's Republican debate in Iowa. Not sure what it tells you about the candidates and where they stand, but there you go. Most of the candidates ignored the directions given by moderator Carolyn Washburn, editor of The Des Moines Register, and gave their own personal resolutions. Or like Tom Tancredo, used it to ask Mike Huckabee a question about why he changed his mind on immigration.

All in all, it was a very polite debate. More like a forum, really. No real fireworks on any 'hot' issues like religion or immigration. But lots of fiscal questions about debts and deficits and asking Americans about making sacrifices.

Huckabee didn't say anything that could hurt him. It seemed a good debate for Mitt Romney, John McCain and even Fred Thompson. The other candidates remained relatively in the background — even Rudy Giuliani, which was a bit surprising.

But the Republican debates in this state are past. Now it come down to boots on the ground — the organizations the campaigns have built over the months in Iowa, and making sure they get their known supporters to the caucuses on January 3. That may be the deciding factor in this race right now.

"Political Junkie" Looks at History of Iowa Caucuses

Ken Rudin, our political editor, has just published a new edition of his popular Political Junkie column.

This week Ken looks at:

* The history of the Iowa caucuses - candidates, issues and the order of finishes in each party

* Presidents who failed to win their home states.

* Results of Tuesday's special congressional elections.

* Recommends a good book about Bobby Kennedy

We also have an archive of Ken's older columns.

Right Place, Really Wrong Time

Protest sign at Republican debate in Iowa.

City workers remove snowy global warming sign.

Scott Horsley, NPR

Global warming might not be top of mind for Republicans debating in Johnston, Iowa today. (Local temperature 23 F.)

Environmentalist activists lined the road to the debate site with political signs, but they were quickly removed for violating a local sign ordinance, not to mention anti-irony rules.

- Scott Horsley

Debate Last GOP Showdown Before Caucuses

On Tuesday, much of the Midwest, including Iowa, was blanketed with snow and freezing rain. Many candidates canceled campaign events and hunkered down, probably happy for an extra day to prepare for the Des Moines Register debates; the Republicans today and the Democrats tomorrow.

Yet for all the bad weather, it's always cheerful these days in Mike Huckabee's Iowa headquarters. NPR's Scott Horsley reports that the former Arkansas governor's dramatic rise in the polls since the summer has heartened state campaign manager Eric Woolson.

"As a result of the poll numbers being up, fundraising is up," Woolson said. "The number of volunteers are up ... It all goes hand in hand. I've never really seen a candidate catch fire like this."

Huckabee seems to have connected with the conservative sweet spot that all the Republican candidates have been courting: a new poll shows that much of his support is coming from weekly churchgoers, evangelicals, and anti-abortion voters. They are worried about the more liberal Rudy Giuliani getting the nomination, and by an Iowa judge's ruling last summer in favor of same-sex marriage.

But longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney's not conceding the field. He launched a new ad yesterday that contrasted his record on immigration (very tough, the ad says) and Huckabee's (labeled not tough enough). But Huckabee was quick to regain his footing, getting the support of some important anti-immigration groups, like the Minutemen.

It will all make for some lively theater today. You can catch the debate on CNN starting at 2 p.m. EST. Our correspondents will also have reports from the site.

Money Makes the Political World Go Around

It's all about the Benjamins.

A political campaign, that is. No candidate who is seriously considering a run for the president (or almost any other political office these days) can hope to compete if he or she can't find the money to back that ambition. Recently, for instance, there has been speculation in the media that Mike Huckabee, who has surged in the polls in Iowa and South Carolina, needs to find more money or else he won't be able to capitalize on possible early successes in later primaries.

NPR's Peter Overby reports for All Things Considered on how this search for money, and then how that money is used, is rippling through this year's presidential races. For instance, Mitt Romney's Commonwealth PAC and Barack Obama's Hope Fund are examples of how candidates can use so called "leadership PACs" to make "friendly gestures" by giving money to candidates in federal or state races — particularly in states where there just happen to be important presidential primaries. And since these leadership PACS are not officially part of the candidate's campaign, there are fewer restrictions on the way they raise money.

And as Ed Bender, director of the National Institute on Money in State Politics, told Peter all this money distributed by candidates is meant to "start a conversation."

Just more proof that, not only does money talk, but in a presidential year it helps get others talking as well.

10:10 AM ET | 12-12-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Romney's Inner Business Consultant Comes Out

One-time business consultant Mitt Romney showed off his famous appetite for data Tuesday, in the midst of a campaign photo op.

While shaking hands and posing for pictures in a Des Moines shopping mall, Romney and his wife Ann wandered into a business that refills toner cartridges. The couple consulted for a moment over what model of cartridge their home printer uses, then Romney snapped up a price list. "I didn't know how much you wanted to know about it," said the surprised counter clerk.

Romney quickly scanned the list for his model (HP-56 from Hewlett Packard). "There it is," he said. "Nine bucks and ten cents. "Wow, that's a lot less than we pay for a new one." On his way out the door the former venture capitalist said, "That's a good business."

Romney's curiosity might have also carried him — and the scrum of photographers following him — into a beauty salon, but his wife steered them away. "That's the last place I'd want to have a camera watching me, when I'm getting my hair done," Ann Romney said.

- Scott Horsley

8:51 AM ET | 12-12-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

December 11, 2007

Minutemen for Mike (Huckabee)

What a difference a week makes! Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has been up there with John McCain as the compassionate voice of moderation on immigration, refusing to tack rightward like some rivals. As Huckabee's standing soared in key primary states, conservative blogs were buzzing about getting the word out on his moderate immigration record, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney unveiled a negative TV ad in Iowa hitting Huckabee as soft on illegals.

Well, Huckabee has struck back, and with such quick apparent success that it almost looks like anti-illegal immigration groups have banded together and picked their guy, however odd the fit.

First, Huckabee's tough-sounding nine-point plan to solve the immigration problem — released Friday — is lifted straight from a proposal two years ago by Mark Krikorian, of the Center for Immigration Studies. CIS seeks to dramatically reduce if not altogether suspend immigration - legal as well as illegal. (No plagiarism here — Huckabee credits Krikorian.) Then Tuesday, Minuteman Founder Jim Gilchrist pops up next to Huckabee at a press conference in Iowa to endorse the man from Arkansas. (AP quotes Gilchrist as having decided that Huckabee is the candidate most likely to stop "this illegal immigrant invasion problem.") Within hours of that, the anti-illegal immigration lobby group Grassfire.org puts out the results of a "Conservative Straw Poll with Stunning Results."

Guess what? According to the poll, "grassroots conservatives find Huckabee among the most trustworthy on the issue of stopping illegal immigration — in a statistical dead-heat with immigration stalwart Tom Tancredo with each at 20 percent." The website announcement even includes a very presidential-looking photo of Mike Huckabee.

Continue reading "Minutemen for Mike (Huckabee)" »

Warren Buffett's Backing Could Help Dems in Midwest

Things are getting tight in Iowa, but Hillary Clinton has actually LEFT the Hawkeye state to attend a fund-raiser in (gasp) San Francisco. But the trip might actually get her some cred with Midwesterners, because the event is hosted by Warren Buffett.

Most Americans think of Buffett as just some crusty old billionaire who's good at picking stocks. But in the Midwest, he's more than that. People are proud of him. He's the "Oracle of Omaha." Over the years, he's bested the coastal capitalists at their own game, and yet he comes off as gracious and homey. If you're ever in Omaha and the locals give you a tour, it will inevitably end up with a drive-by of "Warren's" house — a modest place, for a guy that rich. And dinner at his favorite steak house — the kind of place your grandparents would love.

Why does this matter? Because it means Buffett's endorsement of a Democrat for president matters — in the red-tinged heartland. (Buffett supports Clinton and Obama — he says either one would make a good president, and he's hosted fund-raisers for both.) Buffett makes it safer for a certain segment of Republicans to vote Democrat.

We're talking old-fashioned Republicans. The ones who've voted Republican since the 1960s because their parents did, but who've never really been part of the Christian Conservative movement. They're more numerous in the Midwest than the East Coast political consultants would have you believe.

I'm talking about white guys over fifty who drive Buicks and work in insurance. The guys who are a little quieter about their politics, but get all excited about Buffett. And if he goes on CNBC and says it's prudent to vote for a Democrat, they'll pay attention.

Remember Reagan Democrats? Maybe 2008 will see the advent of Buffett Republicans.

- Martin Kaste

Wasting Words on Faith? Gallup Says Maybe

If Mitt Romney thought his religion speech last week would convert voters resistant to Mormons, he won't like the latest Gallup Poll.

Gallup's pollsters phoned 1027 voting age adults nationwide in the three days following Romney's faith fest; 17% said they would not vote for a Mormon for president, even if said un-named Mormon was well-qualified otherwise.

That's about the same percentage of people who responded the same way to the same question back in March.

The new poll indicates that Romney would be far better off if he were Jewish, Catholic, Black, Hispanic or female. Candidates with those faiths, ethnicities or gender don't generate as much hostility as Mormons, according to the respondents to the poll.

The good news for Romney? He's not gay or godless. More than 40% of those answering Gallup's phone calls don't want anyone like that in the White House.

Now, there are two important cautions with a poll like this:

Caution#1: It's national. And, well, Romney doesn't care much at the moment about states beyond Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Voters in those states count more because their votes will cut the Republican field in just a few weeks.

Caution #2: People tend to say what's socially acceptable when there's a pollster at the other end of the line. So pollsters ask trick questions designed to reveal prejudices voters might not want to reveal. A CBS-New York Times poll also released today did that with the Mormon question. Sure enough, 41% of those questioned said they thought most people THEY KNEW would NOT vote for a Mormon candidate. The same question got basically the same response in June.

If Mitt Romney survives Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, he might need to give another speech about faith - a more effective speech about faith. Or maybe he should try to be Jewish, Catholic, Black, Hispanic or female?

- Howard Berkes

Another Former Mass. GOP Governor Slams Romney

Massachusetts Acting Governor Jane Swift, a Republican, was getting geared up to run for the office full-time in 2002 when Mitt Romney made his intentions known that he was also interested in the job.

Senior state GOP leaders, who were worried that Swift would lose the governor's chair for the party because of her declining popularity (at one point she had a single-digit approval rating) — based on several incidents when she used state personnel and vehicles to help her with what were clearly personal activities — moved Swift aside. They saw the man who had saved the Salt Lake City Olympics and made millions in business as a sure thing, and they were right — Romney won the 2002 race for governor.

But there was always a feeling that Swift wasn't too happy about what had happened to her. And now it seems she has decided to strike at Romney, writing an editorial in the Manchester (N.H.) Union-Leader that plays heavily on Romney's shift from a more liberal position on issues such as abortion and gay rights, as well as an attack on his fiscal record.

Continue reading "Another Former Mass. GOP Governor Slams Romney" »

3:40 PM ET | 12-11-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

First Blood! Romney Airs Contrast Ad in Iowa

Well, it's finally here. The campaign's first bona-fide negative ad. Or "compare and contrast ad," if you prefer. The spot is being aired on Iowa TV stations by Mitt Romney, who's just given up his lead in the state to a guy named Huckabee.

The candidates haven't been shy about slagging on each other in the debates, but they've been oddly decorous in their ads. This Romney ad is the first time we see a candidate single out one of his rivals for the nomination.

The ad starts by laying out what the two men ostensibly have in common.

Continue reading "First Blood! Romney Airs Contrast Ad in Iowa" »

Alternative Minimum Tax Battle Not Over Yet

It wouldn't come as a big surprise if House Democrats took their Senate colleagues off their Christmas card lists this year. Their disagreement over how to pay for the fix to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) could end up costing millions of Americans more in taxes, and the Democrats some valuable political capital.

The AMT was brought in during the 60s to make sure millionaires paid taxes. But it was never indexed for inflation.

NPR's Debbie Elliott reported for Morning Edition that House Democrats, under the leadership of Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangle, had crafted a bill that would help millions of middle-income Americans avoid having to pay the AMT, but would still observe the "Pay as You Go" rules the party adopted to promote fiscal responsibility. The House bill would have raised taxes on investment fund managers to help pay for the lost revenue from the AMT fix, about $50 billion dollars.

But the Senate Democrats, under the threat of a filibuster from Republicans, dropped the "PayGo" provisions and just went for the AMT tax break. House Democrats were furious, in particular the more conservative Blue Dog Democrat coalition. They wrote a letter to House leaders telling them to stand their ground, regardless of the political pressure.

And there's a lot of pressure at this moment. If the IRS doesn't get the OK to make the fix soon, it'll be too late to reprogram its computers and tax refunds will be delayed.

The Ways and Means panel will meet today to try and craft a new plan. But as Elliott reports, there are already signs that Democratic House leaders are starting to tone down expectations about Pay as You Go.

Des Moines Debates Last Before Jan. 3 Caucus

If you're hungry for more presidential debates, best keep you eye on Des Moines tomorrow and Thursday. Wednesday's GOP debate and Thursdays Democratic debate, sponsored by the Des Moines Register, will be the last ones scheduled before the January 3 caucuses. NPR's political team will provide reports on the debates.

There had been another Democratic debate scheduled for next Monday at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum in Boston, but it has been canceled. CNN, one of the sponsors of the debate, along with Politico and the library, issued a statement Monday confirming that the event had been called off.

"Due to the early scheduling of the Iowa caucuses, organizers decided to cancel the December 17th debate in Boston," CNN's Edie Emery said in a brief statement, declining to discuss factors that influenced the decision.

11:09 AM ET | 12-11-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

December 10, 2007

Huckabee's Record, Funding Under Scrutiny

It was U.S. novelist William Faulkner who said, "The past is not dead. In fact, it's not even past." And that's the thing about suddenly becoming a player for your party's presidential nomination. People start to pay a lot of attention to things that you did and said before you reached such a position.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who is surging in the polls, is starting to get an idea about just how much attention people can pay to the past: for instance, his record on issuing pardons in Arkansas, statements on how HIV patients should be treated, and who funded him early in his political career.

The Associated Press reports that Huckabee had a hand in twice as many pardons and commutations as his three predecessors combined; 1,033 pardons and commutations in his 10 1/2 years as governor of Arkansas. The most controversial case, and the one most often mentioned by the media, is the parole of a castrated rapist, Wayne DuMond. He later killed a woman. Huckabee, who denied he played a direct role in DuMond's pardon, said he expected the case to become an issue in his campaign.

Some of Huckabee's previous statements are also drawing attention. In 1992, when he ran for the Senate in Arkansas, he advocated isolating AIDS patients from the general public, opposed increased federal funding in the search for a cure, and said homosexuality could "pose a dangerous public health risk." He also suggested that Hollywood celebrities should fund AIDS research, not the government. While he said he might express it differently these days, he has not repudiated these remarks.

Huckabee's involvement with Action America has also raised some eyebrows. The non-profit group, composed of supporters, raised funds for Huckabee when he was Arkansas' lieutenant governor and only making $24,000 a year. The group raised $119,916, of which $71,500 went to pay for Huckabee's expenses to travel and make speeches.

Two of Action America's directors, J. J. Vigneault and Greg Graves — both former Huckabee political consultants — told Newsweek that the group was substantially funded by one source: R.J. Reynolds, the tobacco giant — primarily to use Huckabee to fight then-First Lady Hillary Clinton's health care program. Huckabee responded that he fully complied with all laws and reported the income on his income tax disclosure forms.

Vegas Union Members Will Wait to Endorse

Nevada is one of the early voting states for the first time. (The caucuses are January 19.) And for Democratic presidential contenders, the most ardently sought endorsement in Nevada is from the Culinary Workers Local 226.

With about 60 thousand members, the union has a track record in turning out voters and winning elections. The Democratic candidates have been making pilgrimages to the union's Las Vegas headquarters in a dicey part of town known as Naked City. And as the union has battled with the major hotel-casino owners over new contracts, candidates have even pledged to walk the picket lines, if the union calls a strike.

But Local 226 is in no hurry to endorse, according to political director Pilar Weiss, who says the endorsement will come some time in early January, after the Iowa caucuses. Local 226 is part of a national union, UNITE/HERE and Weiss says that they have to consider the experiences of locals in different parts of the country.

Also, the opinions of Local 226 members have been changing. And they want to make sure whatever candidate they endorse has a real chance to win the nomination. "It's Nevada," says Weiss. "People are gamblers. They put their money down at the last minute when they know what the spread is."

- Ina Jaffe

4:17 PM ET | 12-10-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Retired Generals, Admirals Talk Torture Politics

Normally when a group of 49 retired general and admirals want to speak with you, you're reluctant to say no. But some presidential candidates have been hesitant to meet with just such a gathering of distinguished veterans, and some experts say they have good reason.

Paula Reed Ward, of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, reports that the retired admirals and generals want to meet with all the presidential candidates to discuss why they believe the United States should not, and really cannot, engage in torture. The group was put together by Human Rights First after it noticed that there were various individual retired military officers speaking out on the issue. Forth-nine of them, with 400 years of military experience between them, signed on.

Fifteen of the retired officers met with seven of the eight Democratic candidates in Des Moines last week. Only one Republican has met with them so far, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. The reluctance of other GOP candidates to talk to them has annoyed some of the group. "It is a little frustrating, because we do want to talk to everybody," said Don Guter, a retired rear admiral and former Navy judge advocate general.

The officers will not endorse anyone in either presidential camp, and have promised not to discuss what the candidates tell them.

But Matthew Freedus, an adviser to the National Institute of Military Justice, said he's not surprised that most GOP candidates don't want to meet with the group - he compared it to going into combat without armor.

"There's potentially very little for the candidate to gain by sitting down with a group that has so much experience on this and that [has a viewpoint] that's so different from the position they can afford to take," Mr. Freedus said.

The group's position on torture seems to mirror the publics': since 9/11 between 55 and 65 percent of Americans have been opposed to torturing suspects, even in "ticking bomb" situations, according to Darius Rejali, a political science professor at Reed College in Oregon and an expert on torture.

Republicans Stick to Anti-Immigration Lines in Debate

According to recent polls, the Democrats have a 34-point lead over the Republicans among Hispanic voters. So you can understand why GOP presidential candidates were at first reluctant to agree to a Spanish-language debate. The Democrats had held a similar debate in September.

But after some prodding and poking from senior GOP figures, who know the importance of the Hispanic vote, the candidates girded their loins, traveled to Miami, and Sunday night held a 90-minutes debate on Univision, the Spanish-language cable TV network.

NPR's Greg Allen reports that in particular the candidates weren't all that eager to go before a Hispanic audience and defend their positions on immigration. (Rep. Tom Tancredo, the candidate most outspoken on the issue, didn't attend the debate because he said he didn't like the idea of it being translated in Spanish.) For instance, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee was forced to defend his position that all 12 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. had to go home before applying to get back into the country.

There was little follow-up to any of the tough questions, like how the candidates felt about separating children born in the U.S. from their illegal immigrant parents. None of the candidates answered the question directly. And former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was asked if he reported to authorities that employees of a landscaping company he used at his own home outside Boston were in the country illegally. In his answer, Romney never did say if he believes Americans should report illegal immigrants to the authorities.

But none of the candidates backed away from their positions on immigration, if they did seem on occasion to soften them a bit.

Although the event was broadcast nationally, one advantage the candidates did have was that the debate was held in Miami - which meant a friendlier in-studio audience. The Hispanic community in Florida is not as deeply vested in the immigration issue as are other parts of the country. It has other concerns that point farther south. Rep. Ron Paul discovered this when he suggested that the U.S. have "friendly and warm" relationships, and lots of trade, with countries like Venezuela and Cuba.

He was roundly booed for his remarks.

Notes on Oprah's and Obama's South Carolina Visit

NPR reporter Audie Cornish attended Sunday's campaign event in South Carolina for Illinois Senator Barack Obama, featuring an appearance by Oprah Winfrey. She sent along these notes:

Originally the event was scheduled for an arena called the Colonial Center which seated 18,000. After the tickets they printed for that ran out in middle of last week, campaign organizers decided to move to another space. The next biggest location in Columbia is the William Brice Stadium, the 10th largest on-campus stadium in the country, seating 80,000. But the campaign set up didn't imply they expect to fill it.
The press riser is practically at the field goal line. With maybe 20-30 feet between that riser and the stage, which they will likely fill with supporters. People are t-r-i-c-k-l-i-n-g in ...

When I arrived at 8:30AM (for the 2:30 event) the fog wasn't even up. There were a dozen or so people standing outside. The first person in line was not who I expected. Justin Areer, young, white and male from Gilbert, South Carolina said he was not so much a fan of Oprah but rather a superfan of Obama's. He was wearing two Obama pins.

Behind him were two African-American women with collapsible chairs and coffee. "We thought we were going to be first," said Shavon Scott of Columbia SC. Women voters are obviously the target, but in South Carolina black women alone are likely to cast 30 percent of the primary vote.

Continue reading "Notes on Oprah's and Obama's South Carolina Visit" »

8:44 AM ET | 12-10-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

December 9, 2007

Richardson Finds Few Supporters in Nevada

It's lonely at the bottom, too.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson has been counting on a good showing in Nevada. He's visited the state more than any other candidate ... of either party. Yet a new Mason-Dixon poll released Sunday has him at only seven percent in the state.

Saturday he addressed a largely Latino crowd in Las Vegas, only most of them weren't there to see him. They were there for a Mockus, what the Nevada Democratic Party calls the many trainings sessions they've been conducting in advance of the state's first-ever January caucuses. (They're on the 19th).

Richardson looked out at a crowd where "Hillary" and "Obama" signs far outnumbered signs with his name. He was greeted with warmth, but the crowd was silent during his talk about Western issues and immigration. Anti-war talk was the only thing that got them going. It's another sign that national issues outweigh local ones here.

- Ina Jaffe

December 7, 2007

It's Obama Versus (Bill) Clinton For Grammy Award

There's another Clinton-Obama battle shaping up, this one away from Iowa and New Hampshire. This time its the other Clinton, former President Bill Clinton, versus Illinois Senator Barack Obama at this year's Grammy Awards. Both Democrats have been nominated in the Best Spoken Word Album category. (Do they still call them albums? Wait, I've having a flashback to the 70s.)

Clinton's been nominated for the reading of his book "Giving: How Each of Us Can Change the World" and Obama for his book "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream."

Oh yea, there are other nominees, including another president: Maya Angelou, Jimmy Carter and Alan Alda.

Obama is actually the reigning champ in this category. He won it last year for his reading of the autobiographical "Dreams of My Father."

5:16 PM ET | 12- 7-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Huckabee Continues Climb in National, Iowa Polls

Tuesday morning, as I was leaving my hotel in Des Moines, Iowa to go to NPR's Democratic candidates debate, I found myself alone in the elevator with former Arkansas Governor (and GOP presidential hopeful) Mike Huckabee. He introduced himself, shook my hand, and then we had a short conversation during the 25-floor ride down to the lobby.

Who knows, one day I might be able to tell my children about the time I rode in the elevator with a president.

Mind you, it's a long way to go before Huckabee might become president. First, he has to become the presidential nominee of the Republican Party. Today he received more positive signals about that goal.

A new national Associated Press/Ipsos poll shows that Huckabee has moved into second-place in the GOP race, and is "hot on the heels" of front-runner former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

The poll showed Giuliani with the support of 26 percent of those surveyed, while Huckabee has 18 percent. He replaced former Sen. Fred Thompson in the second spot, as Thompson's campaign continues to slide. Sen. John McCain is now in third place with 13 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney next with 12, and then Thompson with 11. (Although the margin of error of 5.1 percent among Republicans surveyed means the three are in a statistical dead heat.)

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead, but has fallen back below the 50-percent marker. She leads Barack Obama 45 percent to 23 percent, with John Edwards at 12 percent.

Update: A new Newsweek Iowa poll of 1,408 registered voters on Dec. 5 and 6 shows that Huckabee now has a two-to-one lead over Romney. (One NPR producer told me her jaw dropped when she saw the results of this poll.)

Huckabee now leads 39 percent to 17 percent over Romney among likely GOP caucus-goers. In the last Newsweek poll, taken in September, Romney was at 25 percent and Huckabee at six. "He's filling a vacuum," says Larry Hugick, who directed the polling for Princeton Survey Research Associates. "Nobody on the Republican side was getting strong support."

4:28 PM ET | 12- 7-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Energy Bill Vote Blocked in Senate

It seems that Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid's call for Senate presidential candidates to return home to vote on the energy bill didn't help him much in the end.

The 53-42 total falls far short of the 60 votes needed to to invoke cloture and bring the bill to a vote. Yesterday the House passed a similar measure, over the threat of a veto by President Bush, that raises automobile fuel-efficiency standards for the first time in more than three decades and require increased use of renewable energy sources to generate electricity.

It was the renewable energy provision of the bill that doomed it to failure. NPR's Debbie Elliot reported on Republican, and even some Democratic, opposition to these measures on Thursday. It's likely that a new version of the bill, without the renewable energy sections, will be presented to the Senate on Tuesday.

It's Oprah Day in Obama Country

There have no doubt been more important days in the life of Sen. Barack Obama - his marriage, the birth of his children, etc - but there's won't be many that will be covered by wall-to-wall media like this one will.

That because the Queen of Daytime TV, the publisher of a magazine named after her on which she appears on every cover, the woman who made Tolstoy a best-selling author again, the richest entertainer in the world, etc., etc., Oprah Winfrey, is appearing today in Iowa at two campaign events with the Illinois Senator and Democratic presidential candidate.

In celebrity-skeptical Iowa, most, but not all, the tickets for the two events have been snapped up. But on Sunday in New Hampshire, they've had to rent the largest stadium in the state for the event. In South Carolina , also on Sunday, they've had to move the event to a stadium to accommodate the people who want to see the two together.

But let's be honest, it's not him they want to see, is it?

As Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank told Renee Montagne on Morning Edition, this is the probably the biggest celebrity endorsement a candidate could ever get. And, as Milbank points out, people actually seem to follow her advice.

It sure didn't hurt the current president to be seen with her. Before President Bush appeared on with Oprah in 2000, he was ten points behind then Vice President Al Gore. After his appearance, he soon caught up. Pundits started calling it "The Oprah Bounce," something the country had never seen before.

Normally, celebrity endorsements don't mean much. Bruce Springsteen didn't help Sen. John Kerry much, and it's doubtful Chuck Norris's backing is going to put former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee over the top. But surprisingly, a Pew Research survey found that 60 percent of those polled said Oprah's support would help Obama.

What Obama really wants, however, is the support of women aged 25-50 who've been backing Sen. Hillary Clinton so far. As Milbank notes, if Oprah can help him can peel enough of those voters away, he's in great shape.

December 6, 2007

Border Residents Have Different View of Fences

"Strengthen the borders" has become as popular a slogan for politicians as "no new taxes," "support the troops" and "I'm leaving to spend more time with my family."

While some welcome the increased security measures, many of the millions who live along the U.S.-Mexican border feel they have no voice in decisions that affect them: new fences, new crackdowns, closed borders ... before Washington discusses any other options.

NPR's Ted Robbins reports for All Things Considered that some of these border residents (known as the Texas Border Coalition), who believe the "racially heated national media" are distorting the situation along the border, gathered recently in El Paso, Texas. They want to convince the nation that border security does not mean the issues of human rights and trade are no longer important.

Brownsville, Texas Mayor Pat Ahumada, for instance, calls the border fence the government wants to build in his town "wasteful and inefficient." He also doesn't think it will work. "Somebody wants to get into your house, they are going to get into your house," he says. Ahumada believes a wider Rio Grande will keep out more illegal immigrants than a high fence.

Coalition members plan to issue a report to argue their case that will include, among other things, these two statistics from a recent report: that the border town of El Paso was recently ranked as the second-safest city in America, while Washington D.C. was ranked the second-most dangerous.

Bush Plan Would Freeze Some Subprime Loans

The Bush administration and financial institutions have agreed to a five-year freeze on interest rates for certain Americans who are facing possible foreclosure because of the subprime lending crisis. NPR reports that more than 2 million people are "projected to face foreclosure next year as payments on their adjustable-rate mortgages ratchet up to unaffordable levels - in some cases more than 12 percent higher than their current payments."

But as Bob Moon of Marketplace points out on Day to Day, this plan won't help everybody in trouble. It could mean that two people who live side-by-side, and got their mortgages at the same time, could pay different rates. Borrowers will have to be current on their mortgage payments, and the lender will take a look at their income to see if they really can't afford to have their payment level go up.

On Tuesday Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and John Edwards said the president wasn't doing enough to help the vast number of homeowners at risk of foreclosure and to fix the mortgage crisis that is roiling financial markets.

But an interesting counterpoint to today's announcement also came on Day to Day, from Andrew Gerber, a home owner with a fixed-interest rate, who is not happy about the President's announcement. "What about people like me ... who have made the right choice?," he asked. "Shouldn't we get a point or two off our mortgages?" How come the people who made the right choices get penalized, Gerber said, but the people who made the wrong choice get a handout?

Update: Whoops! CNN reports that people trying to find out if they qualify for the new mortgage relief plan were thrown for a temporary loop after President Bush gave out the wrong number for the "Hope Now Hotline." Anyone who dialed the number mentioned by the president called the Freedom Christian Academy, a Texas-based group that provides Christian education home schooling material.

Maybe the president got some papers from his faith-based initiatives plan mixed up with the mortgage relief plans. Hey, my desk is a mess, I can understand how it could happen.

The White House quickly released the proper number once the mistake was brought to their attention.

Democratic Senators Reeled Back to Senate

The quartet of Democratic senators out furiously stumping to be president may have to revise campaign plans for Friday and Saturday.

The reason boils down to both "duty calls" and showing how much they DO care about meat and potatoes Iowa issues. See, back at their paycheck-producing gig in the U.S. Senate there are Republicans filibustering two bills that have Iowa written all over them.

Senate Democrats will try for a second time on Friday to break a filibuster of the $280 billion farm bill, and they'll try on Saturday to do the same with a huge energy bill loaded with mandates for boosting corn-based ethanol production. Majority leader Harry Reid needs sixty votes to break those filibusters, and he has only 51 senators in his Democratic caucus.

So for the first time since Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Chris Dodd began chasing their presidential dreams, Reid is reeling them back to the Senate chamber to vote. He's actually only telling them to be there on Saturday morning for the energy bill vote — but as one of his advisers put it, if they're not smart enough to be on hand Friday for the farm bill vote, they have no business seeking higher office in the state of Iowa.

But don't worry — all the voting should be over by the time Obama's due to hook up with his pal Oprah Winfrey for two events in Iowa on Saturday. And in case anyone missed the fact that Chris Dodd is bowing out of four events scheduled in Iowa to vote Friday on the farm bill, his campaign has thoughtfully sent out e-mails with the not-so-subtle message "DODD CHANGES SCHEDULE TO SUPPORT FARM BILL TOMORROW IN SENATE".

Just don't expect a similar posting from the McCain campaign, whose candidate looks at both bills and sees pork...while Democrats see bacon.

- David Welna

2:57 PM ET | 12- 6-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Romney Speaks to Americans About Faith

Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney grabbed the bull by the horns today and gave a speech at the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library about "Faith in America." His advisers said he was giving the speech to answer questions that people have about his Mormon faith.

Whether or not he actually accomplished that goal seems to be a matter of some conjecture.

On CNN, former Secretary of Education William Bennett said that while he liked Romney's speech and thought that it was a good one, it was too generic — "It could have been given by any Republican candidate, or any of the Democratic candidates for that matter." Bennett also said he wasn't sure if the speech would answer the questions about Romney's connection to Mormonism or create more.

National Review Online's Mona Charen wrote that the speech was "brilliant" and "perhaps the best political speech of the year."

Ed Morrisey of the Captain's Quarters and Heading Right, who live blogged the speech, summed it up by saying "Interesting, and somewhat better than I thought. I still think that he won't have convinced people disinclined to vote for Mormons to support him, but at least he may have made some evangelicals more comfortable with his candidacy."

Andrew Sullivan of The Daily Dish called the speech "stirring in its defense of religious liberty," but said it had two "deep flaws": the absence of any notion that religious liberty includes the freedom not to have any religion; and "[Romney] simply cannot elide the profound theological differences between the LDS church and mainstream Christianity."

Sullivan also points out a potential Romney flip-flop on saying whether or not a person should be elected president because of his faith.

We'll have some more reaction later today.

Update: Michael Paulson, religion reporter for The Boston Globe, tells Day by Day that along with asking Americans to remember the importance of religious diversity, there was also a critique of church and state, and that maybe it's gone too far in the country. His colleague at the Globe, Washington Bureau chief Peter Canellos called the speech a "tour de force" and thinks it will help Romney allay people's concerns about his religion.

Chris Cizzilla of The Fix at the Washington Post goes through the list of what did work (optics, delivery, straight talk, common ground) and what didn't (Mormon, short on specifics, timing).

Clinton Dumps Celine Dion Song at Campaign Events

It's a parting of the ways that can only be rivaled by the split up of Lewis and Martin, Abbot and Costello, and "Benifer" ... OK, maybe it's not quite that dramatic, but reports indicate that Sen. Hillary Clinton team has decided to drop Celine Dion's song, "You and I."

Clinton had selected the song after thousands of suggestions were submitted to her website. It was used to set the stage as she entered a campaign event. "I can hear your voice calling out to me, Brighter than the sun and darker than the night, I can see your love shining like a light," a recording of the Canadian singer would croon.

But ABC News' Eloise Harper Reports that the "shining" seems to be over. Big Head Todd and the Monsters are in and their "Blue Sky" appear to be the Clinton campaign's new musical selection. (I'm not so sure if it's a good idea for a politician to be associated with anything involving the phrase 'big head.")

So all that hoopla about people sending suggestions and the funny YouTube videos showing the songs submitted... all for nothing?

No word from Celine Dion feels about being replaced. No doubt she's too upset to talk about it right now.

December 5, 2007

Edwards Wants to Capitalize on Clinton-Obama Sniping

With the Iowa caucuses looming, the competition between Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is getting increasingly fiery. Hardly a campaign appearance goes by without an attack, no doubt prompted by polls showing a dead heat in the state.

But there's another candidate who factors into that statistical tie: former Sen. John Edwards. And Candy Crowley reports for CNN that Edwards sees an opportunity in the sniping between Clinton and Obama to sneak to the top and maybe squeak out a victory. Edwards hopes the in-your-face sound bites won't play well in "notoriously friendly" Iowa.

Crowley reports that Edwards, who has been a fierce Clinton critic, is trying to back away from his earlier intensity. (Although he still leveled some tough shots at Clinton during NPR's Democratic debate on Tuesday, especially on Iran, so I don't know if he's managed to tame that instinct yet.)

Romney and His Illegal Immigrant Gardners

Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has fired the landscaping company that cuts his grass in Massachusetts. The move comes more than a year after the Boston Globe broke the news that Community Lawn Service of Chelsea, Massachusetts was employing illegal immigrants.

Romney says he warned the company last year that the legal status of his gardeners was very important to him, but granted the firm a second chance. He fired the company Tuesday after being confronted by the Globe with credible evidence that undocumented workers were still tending his lawn.

Romney has loudly criticized Republican rivals Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani over illegal immigration. He faults Huckabee for trying to grant in-state tuition fees to illegal immigrants while Governor of Arkansas and says Giuliani ran a "sanctuary city" as Mayor of New York. Giuliani fired back during a televised debate last week, with a not-so-subtle dig at the landscaping flap. Giuliani accused Romney of owning a "sanctuary mansion."

Finding a replacement firm with only authorized workers may not be easy. A 2005 study by the Pew Hispanic Center found 25% of all landscapers in the US were in the country illegally.

- Scott Horsley

December 4, 2007

Giuliani Steps Down from His Security Consulting Firm

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani has stepped down as chairman of Giuliani Partners, his consulting firm.

The move follows increasing controversy over one of the firm's clients, the Persian Gulf nation of Qatar, which has been accused in various reports of sheltering Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the suspected "mastermind" of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Giuliani's not severing his ties with the consulting firm. Taking over as chairman is Giuliani's first deputy mayor and boyhood friend, Peter Powers. Giuliani retains a 30 percent stake in the company.

- Ina Jaffe

6:05 PM ET | 12- 4-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

A Look at What Other Blogs Are Saying

We weren't the only ones following the Democratic debate hosted by NPR and Iowa Public Radio.

Noam Scheiber at The New Republic's The Stump said the decision to talk about only three topics was bad news for Hillary Clinton: "Iran's obviously tricky for Hillary in the aftermath of Kyl-Lieberman. Immigration is, too, though it's arguably tricky for everyone. But the big problem is no health care, which is where Hillary was groping for a foot-hold against Obama."

Cameron's Corner at Fox News noted that the National Intelligence Estimate about Iran released Monday made it easier for "opponents using the new revelation to attack [Clinton's] vote for the Kyl-Lieberman resolution calling on President Bush to designate the Iranian National Guard a terrorist organization."

Over at Daily Kos, "Devilstower" attempted to provide a transcript of the debate in real time. And YouPolls is conducting an online survey (unscientific, of course) about who won the debate: Barack Obama leads as of this writing with 47 percent.

Update: The New York Times' The Caucus blog writes, "This was a low-key debate and a good one." Blogger Katharine Q. Seelye went on to say that not having people "whooping or applauding or booing" meant that there was "less grandstanding by the candidates, who engaged in civil discussions even as they disagreed, on Iran, immigration and trade. ... Why aren't there more debates like this?" Seelye asked.

Final Thoughts on the Debate

I'll leave it for others to decide "winners" and "losers." At least regarding the debate. And I'll let others tell you what they thought about the questions or answers. But I found it invigorating to hear from so many who proved adept at multitasking: listening to the debate, disagreeing with the moderators and/or candidates and posting comments about their thoughts at the same time. Needless to say, we would be nowhere without the constant feedback we get from our listeners.

The disagreement between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton on Iran and the Senate vote on the Revolutionary Guard — something I didn't feel was new — seemed to be the biggest bone of contention during the debate. There seems to be no love lost between the two. For the record, however, I promise I'm not complaining about the lack of fisticuffs; I'm well aware that a major complaint about journalists is that we live for conflict.

I should also say that, once again, it did not go unnoticed that Clinton would say "I agree with Joe" (Biden) or "I agree with Chris" (Dodd) more than once — as if she was trying to tell their supporters that they should at least consider her as a possible backup choice should Biden or Dodd fail.

The fact that Edwards seemed to be "fact checked" on the blog more than the other candidates was also picked up by some, whereas Clinton may have gotten more of a pass. Michele Norris at one point did accuse Edwards of being inconsistent regarding whether the U.S. or China had more economic leverage, when the transcript shows that was not the case.

As always, Biden sounded authoritative. For all the blah blah blah among Clinton, Edwards and Barack Obama about "experience" and who has it — or doesn't — let the record show that Biden has been in the Senate since 1973. Dodd also has more than 30 years' experience in Congress. But because so many of us are absorbed with polling numbers, or even worse, fundraising figures, we tend to ignore those currently running in the so-called "second tier." Given that Iowans are notorious for making up their minds at the last minute — just look at what happened with the Dems in 2004 — don't you think it's time we (the media) learned something?

And a lot of comments came in during the debate wondering what Mike Gravel was doing there — considering that he has not been invited to other recent Democratic debates (MSNBC, CNN). Gravel was invited, along with all the other candidates, many, many months ago, when we began the process of setting up this debate. We were not going to rescind our invitation.

- Ken Rudin

Debate Check: Deporting Illegal Immigrants

On Clinton's comments on what it would take to deport all illegal immigrants:

Pretty good point. A 35-year veteran of the immigration agency just told me two weeks ago it's utterly unrealistic to think we can deport 12 million people. The agency has been chronically underfunded and understaffed ... Big increases under Bush, but still a drop in the bucket. The immigration agency just announced today that it arrested twice as many immigrant fugitives this year than last — 30,000. That's 30,000 out of more than 600,000.

- Jennifer Ludden

Debate Check: How Immigrants Have Affected Wages

In regards to Edwards' comments on studies of wages and immigrants:

While the key studies (George Borjas at Harvard, who is generally anti-immigration, on the one hand; David Card of Berkeley, who is pro-immigration, on the other) do not agree, they have some similar findings:

- Overall, the U.S. workforce's wages have either not been changed at all or have gone up slightly (around 1 percent) because of immigration.

- One cohort has almost certainly seen lower wages because of immigration: high school dropouts. Their wages have gone down somewhere between 3 percent and 7 percent, depending on how the study is performed.

It's important to remember that immigrants (legal or not) don't only increase the supply of labor (causing wage depression), they also increase the demand for labor (since they're getting haircuts, buying meals, etc.) The increase of supply is roughly matched by the increase of demand and nets itself out.

- Adam Davidson

Debate Check: Abuse of Immigrant Labor

On Edwards' comments about immigrant labor:

While there is no question there is widespread abuse of immigrant labor, a good many also are paid market wages. An estimated 60 percent are on the books and pay federal taxes, contributing some $7 billion to Social Security each year that they do not have the right to draw upon when they retire.

- Jennifer Ludden

Debate Check: Undocumented Immigrants

It's estimated that 40 percent of the total number of undocumented immigrants in the country came legally and overstayed their visas; 60 percent crossed the border illegally.

- Jennifer Ludden

Things I'm Learning

Did you know that John Edwards' father worked in a mill all his life?

Seriously, there are some illuminating things going on here. Whether I can see him or not, Joe Biden seems to be taking the most time in explaining his reasoning. Barack Obama, on the other hand, seems to be struggling to explain his position and thought processes. Dennis Kucinich, at least on trade policy, seems to be best in separating himself from the Democratic field on his votes in Congress.

Also ... if you drift in and out of the debate, then it may be difficult to know who's talking, despite the best efforts by the hosts. So in that sense, Hillary Clinton has a bit of an advantage.

And for those who don't know ... Bill Richardson is not here. The New Mexico governor is attending the funeral of a serviceman killed during the Korean War. Richardson was responsible for getting his remains returned to the U.S., following discussions with the North Koreans.

- Ken Rudin

Debate Check: Chinese Currency Issues

It's hard to argue, as Barack Obama did, that the "president has shown no leadership" on China's currency issues. His Treasury Department and the U.S. trade representative have held near-constant negotiations over this. He has gotten China to move ... a tiny bit ... on its currency and has made it clear, again and again, that the president wants and expects China to loosen its currency peg to the U.S. dollar.

- Adam Davidson

Debate Check: Manufacturing in China and the U.S.

On Barack Obama saying the United States shouldn't let any toys in from China:

China makes around 80 percent of our toys. There is no capacity in the rest of the world to take up that slack for at least a few Christmases. So, no toys from China means no (or far fewer) toys.

Most recent studies argue that toys made in China are not much more dangerous (and may be safer) than toys made in other countries.

One more time: Far fewer than 1/100th of 1 percent of China's toy exports have been recalled.

In response to Kucinich and others:

The U.S. is the world's leading manufacturing nation.

The U.S. manufactures around 75 percent of the stuff we use in the U.S.

And U.S. manufacturing grows every year.

U.S. manufacturing has never been more successful financially, even though manufacturing employment has gone down.

- Adam Davidson

The First Laugh of the Debate

In the conversation about China trade policy, Michele Norris asked John Edwards whether he, as the father of two young children, would buy Christmas toys made in China. Edwards said absolutely not. Chris Dodd, also the father of two youngsters, said he would be buying toys made in ... Iowa!

- Ken Rudin

Debate Check: Arms Race with China

Kucinich talks about an "arms race with China." There is no such thing. China is rebuilding its military and has been doing so since it saw what America could accomplish in the 1991 Gulf War. China is far behind in U.S. capabilities -- it's not like the U.S. vs. the Soviet Union situation.

- Tom Bowman

Topic One: Iran Policy

Didn't hear much new from the candidates. The familiar back-and-forth between Edwards and Clinton continued, with Edwards criticizing Clinton for voting to label the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a "terrorist group" (for the record, along with 75 other senators) and Clinton responding by calling his criticism "outlandish" and "going too far." She says Iran WAS INDEED supplying weapons to kill Americans in Iraq and that her policy of tough diplomacy is proving to be effective.

- Ken Rudin

Debate Check: Dialogue with China

Edwards said the U.S. has done nothing about China. However, Robert Zoellick, when he was deputy secretary of state, did start a strategic dialogue with China and brought up all these issues. Didn't accomplish much, but it was an attempt.

- Michele Kelemen

Debate Check: Chinese Toys

In regards to John Edwards' comments on lead-filled toys:

Just a reminder: Far fewer than 1/100th of 1 percent of China's toy exports have been recalled. A majority were recalled due to U.S. design failure, not Chinese manufacturing failure.

- Adam Davidson

Debate Check: Sadr and the Mahdi Army

Sadr and his Shiite Mahdi Army are laying low -- and it's uncertain if this has anything to do with Iran or just self preservation. U.S. officers I talked with in Iraq think Sadr is just biding his time.

- Tom Bowman

2:44 PM ET | 12- 4-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Debate Check: Iran's Behavior and Nuclear Weapons

Dennis Kucinich said there was no evidence that Iran had a nuclear weapons program; however, the recent National Intelligence Estimate said the country did have one, but it was halted in 2003.

As to Hillary Clinton's mention of a change of behavior from Iran, U.S. officials have said that violence by Shiite militias that they believe are supported by Iran is down. And there is another factor — not just the saber-rattling and terrorist designations — which is the talks that the U.S. ambassador has had with the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad. So it's hard to say what is motivating Iran's behavior.

- Michele Kelemen

2:29 PM ET | 12- 4-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

The Debate's Three Topics

Robert Siegel has announced that the debate will be limited to just three topics: Iran and how it relates to Iraq; immigration policy; and China.

On that last topic, I'm quite pleased. After all, I'm a Taipei personality.

- Ken Rudin

Here's Something You Won't Hear on the Air

The debate is starting now. Just a few minutes ago, the candidates were doing mic checks, counting to 10. John Edwards wanted to know if he needs to be wearing his headphones all the time, and Hillary Clinton said she's feeling a bit claustrophobic. Joe Biden and Mike Gravel are talking about problems with snowed-in airports. The candidates sound like they are having a good time. Let's see what happens in the next two hours.

- Ken Rudin

Their Importance Is Undebatable

For the longest time, what I've been hearing is that this election is starting far too early and that voters are not paying attention. Well, guess what? The Iowa caucuses are a month away, and people — at least here in Iowa — are paying attention. In the ride to my hotel from the airport, my cab driver was fascinated by this "Huckabee guy." A waitress didn't trust Hillary Clinton. At a reception Monday night for sponsors of Iowa Public Radio, more than one person talked about being impressed with Joe Biden, even if "he doesn't have a chance."

The NPR debate is minutes away, and the anticipation is mounting. There is no question that this year's debates — both Democratic and Republican — have been significant. Candidates have risen and fallen because of the debates. No one would have heard of Mike Huckabee without them. Serious doubts about Clinton surfaced at the Dems' debate in Philadelphia in late October.

But here comes the weird part. I'm sitting in NPR's work space a few feet from where Robert Siegel, Michele Norris and Steve Inskeep will be questioning the candidates. But I can't see anything. The genius of radio has always been that it allows us to describe what we see to our listeners. But no one will be in the room other than the panelists, candidates and a few NPR production folks. I won't be able to tell you if one candidate glares at another one, or rolls his or her eyes. I won't know if there is warmth in the room, or if it's all business. I may not offer much more insight than you would have by listening to the debate, but I'll do my best.

By the way, here are some last-second viewings: A hearty handshake between John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich in the green room. Clinton has just arrived. A very majestic-looking Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor and Clinton supporter who has appeared on lists of potential VP candidates.

It's a good time to be in Iowa.

- Ken Rudin

It's Pig Heaven for Political Junkies in Iowa

A month to go before the Iowa caucuses, but more importantly, less than two hours to go before the NPR-sponsored Democratic candidate debate. We held one four years ago — hosted by Neal Conan — and my fondest memory is Dennis Kucinich holding up a pie chart to make a point (an interesting tactic in a radio debate). Kucinich is back this year, along with Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel and Barack Obama; Bill Richardson, also running for the Democratic nomination, had to miss today's debate to attend a funeral.

Speaking of Gravel, the former Alaska senator, I happened to ride in the elevator with him this morning as I was arriving at our work space. And, befitting a political junkie, I found myself having a conversation with him that involved his defeat of Sen. Ernest Gruening in the 1968 primary, his reading of the Pentagon Papers on the Senate floor in 1971, and his defeat of John Birch Society member C.R. Lewis in 1974. It's not everyone I have that kind of conversation with. But it's not every day that you run into a presidential candidate. Unless you're in Iowa.

Anyway, as you trivia buffs know, before our 2004 event, the last radio-only debate among presidential candidates took place in 1948 — a Republican affair between Thomas Dewey and Harold Stassen. Back then, there were very few blog entries.

- Ken Rudin

12:48 PM ET | 12- 4-2007 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Huckabee Raises Some Conservatives' Hackles

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee speaks during a meeting with retired generals and admirals in Des Moines. Photo by Yana Paskova/Getty Images.

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee speaks during a meeting with retired generals and admirals in Des Moines on Monday.

Yana Paskova/Getty Images

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee credits his emphasis on a conservative and faith-based message for his rise in the GOP presidential race. Polls in Iowa show him pulling into a statistical tie with longtime front-runner Mitt Romney.

But I've also seen more backlash lately from conservatives who are unhappy about Huckabee's surge toward the top of the GOP pile.

"Serious Republicans," conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote last week, see him as a big-government liberal in pastor's clothing. They accuse Huckabee of not acting much like a conservative when he was governor, saying he raised taxes, was weak on illegal immigration and played a role in the parole of a rapist later convicted of murder.

Huckabee has defended his record, but he also shrugs off the criticism. "The one thing it proves is that I'm prepared for a presidential campaign. I've been through this stuff," he has said. "I don't have a glass jaw."

I got a taste of this battle when I returned to my hotel room in Des Moines on Monday night. Slipped under my door was a flyer loaded with information meant to counter Huckabee's claims to be a "true" conservative. It came from a group with the interesting name of "Iowans for Some Semblance of Christian Decency."

"Mike Huckabee is affable, friendly and over all a nice guy on the campaign trial," the flyer reads. "But does his voting record truly show him to be a conservative?" The flyer accuses him of several unconservative actions, then warns the reader not to be fooled by his "smooth rhetoric."

December 3, 2007

If That's a Mammoth, the NPR Debate Must Be Nearby

I just got back from the site where the Democratic presidential candidates will meet Tuesday for a debate hosted by NPR and Iowa Public Radio.

The debate is happening inside Iowa's State Historical Building, next to the capitol in Des Moines. The building includes a museum of state history, starting with a huge mammoth skeleton in the front lobby (which has led to a few jokes about how to find NPR's debate space: "Take a left after the mammoth and then it's two doors to your right.")

The candidates will meet in a section of the building that houses an exhibit about the state's caucuses. The space is about the size of a living room in a big house — many times smaller than the debate forums you see on television.

That means there's only a few feet between the candidates and the NPR moderators, Robert Siegel, Michele Norris and Steve Inskeep. I know because we just finished a debate run-through during which I stood in for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. (I didn't feel tall enough to carry off the part.)

There's no flashy staging. No huge video screens. No hissing or cheering audience. That creates a completely different ambiance, which perhaps will help the debate go deeper into the issues on the table. And, remember, some of the questions being asked are the ones submitted by you, the readers of this blog.

Romney to Directly Address Mormon Faith

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks to potential caucus-goers in Iowa last month.

David Lienemann/Getty Images

With former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee pulling into a dead heat with Mitt Romney in Iowa polls, the former Massachusetts governor has decided to address his Mormon religion head-on. His faith seems to be a sticking point for many evangelical voters, who make up about 40 percent of Republican caucus-goers in Iowa.

On Thursday, Romney will give a speech about his Mormon faith and how it might affect his presidency at the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library in College Station, Texas.

"This speech is an opportunity for Governor Romney to share his views on religious liberty, the grand tradition religious tolerance has played in the progress of our nation and how the governor's own faith would inform his presidency if he were elected," campaign spokesman Kevin Madden said in a written statement.

The Romney camp has been debating whether he should give an address of this kind for some time. NPR's Cokie Roberts notes that some of his advisers felt Romney should give a speech like the one John F. Kennedy gave in 1960 explaining his religious views. However, others feared an address would draw too much attention to a religion many Americans don't understand.

Looking for a Fitting Place for a Romney Interview

Sometimes the best-laid plans of mice, men and NPR hosts go astray. Particularly when an ice storm hits. All Things Considered host Robert Siegel had planned to go to Iowa on Saturday to watch presidential candidate Mitt Romney give a speech and then interview him. But Siegel had to scramble when the weather grounded him, and his editor, Quinn O'Toole in Milwaukee and Romney canceled the speech. Senior editor Susan Feeney was already in Des Moines, juggling communications between Siegel, the NPR engineer and the Romney campaign. Here's Siegel with the rest of the story:

The new plan: Our engineer would go to Romney's hotel room and record the candidate. Quinn would record me at the airport. Romney and I would talk by cell phone, then NPR would mix the two recordings together. Patrick Murray, our engineer, was off buying a snow shovel at a Des Moines hardware store and made a beeline to Romney's hotel. Our window was now just a half an hour away, as Romney's staff had hopes of getting him out of Des Moines.

We needed a place that was reasonably quiet for me to do my end of the interview. Quinn and I started looking as I tried to formulate questions (which I had assumed I would do after watching him campaign in Iowa). The Milwaukee airport conference rooms were locked. We found an "executive work station." It had a noisy air duct overhead that would have made me sound like I was doing hurricane coverage on The Weather Channel.

Then we found a quiet, open, empty office and set up. It wasn't empty for long. Then the man whose office it was turned up. Many NPR reporters have experienced the moment when we have taken outrageous advantage of some situation, could easily have been booted out, but encountered a friendly listener who bent some rule to make a public radio show come together. On the other hand, many NPR reporters have also experienced what we experienced on Saturday. He booted us out of his office. No ifs, ands, buts or kind words for public radio.

As I moved us into the din of the executive work station, where all sorts of other travelers could enter, Quinn scouted again and hit pay dirt. The man at the desk in the airport PGA store told him the quietest, most private room was next door, at the airport Brooks Brothers. A kind lady named Marion permitted us use of that room. It was the fitting room. It was not entirely fitting for an interview (someone rang a Salvation Army bell outside) but, at least, no one interrupted us. So, we can say it was somewhat suitable, which I guess is what Brooks Brothers is all about.

- Robert Siegel

New Poll Shows Some Developing Trends in Iowa

A new poll from The Des Moines Register of potential caucus-goers in Iowa shows Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (with 28 percent) leading the Democratic candidates and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (with 29 percent) leading the Republicans.

But the poll's sample size is 500 people from each party, giving it a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. That means Sen. Hillary Clinton (25 percent) or former Sen. John Edwards (23 percent) could be leading on the Democratic side or that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (24 percent) could be on top for the GOP.

Still, we're a month away from the actual vote. And NPR political editor Ken Rudin pointed out Sunday night on All Things Considered that at this point in 2004, Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt were leading the Democrats in the polls. John Kerry and John Edwards, who eventually finished first and second, were in single digits. As Ken said, a lot can change in a month.

Ron Elving, NPR's senior Washington editor, also sent me some thoughts about what the poll means:

The specific party sampling here (500) is not large ... nonetheless, these numbers in both parties confirm trends noted by other polling and generally corroborated by the mood on the ground.
1) Obama is gaining some momentum, ever since the [Jefferson Jackson] dinner in November.
2) Edwards' support is still holding, but could come under pressure if this becomes more a two-horse race and a majority of Edwards backers prefer Obama to Clinton.
3) Huckabee is clearly on the move here and his ads have become much more visible on TV — this DMR poll has him up 17 points since the summer — most of it in the last month.
4) Romney, by contrast, seems momentarily at least in a defensive crouch, lashing out at Huckabee now.
All these points are part of the conventional wisdom already among the throng of reporters covering events here over the weekend.

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