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December 31, 2007

Huckabee Goes Negative ... Almost

For the benighted members of the press corps who specialize in watching the campaign ads, the BIG QUESTION has been this: Will Huckabee Go Negative?

Mitt Romney sure has, hitting Huckabee with "contrast ads" that paint him as soft on illegal immigrants, soft on meth, soft on convicts. And if you believe the polls, it's working: Huckabee's "miracle" surge into first place is losing steam.

The situation has put Huckabee into an unusual bind. He could respond with a negative ad of his own... something that sounds like... say... THIS:

Announcer: Romney's record, over $700,000,000 in new taxes. Left office with a deficit. No executions. Supported gun control. And Romney's government-mandated health plan provided a fifty-dollar copay for abortion.

Huckabee: If a man's dishonest to obtain a job, he'll be dishonest on the job. Iowans deserve better.

But the problem with that is Huckabee's appeal has been based in no small measure on his image as a jokey, nice-guy preacher. If he gets into the mud with Romney on the airwaves, it could finish the job Romney started.

But what if he prepares the above-mentioned ad, delivers it to TV stations, calls a news conference to announce it -- and then declares to a stunned press corps that he's just had a change of heart. That he's pulling the ad before it airs because he doesn't have the stomach to go negative.

That's just what he did in Iowa this afternoon.

If Huckabee is lucky, this will happen: The attack ad will get some exposure anyway, via the "free media" provided by the reporters at that news conference; at the same time, he'll credit for "turning the other cheek."

If Huckabee's not so lucky, the whole thing will stink up the joint as an amateurish stunt that tried to have it both ways. Nice guy/Attack guy.

It should be fun to see how THIS one spins out over the next "news cycle."

-- Martin Kaste

Some of the Best Political Videos of 2007

One of the biggest political trend of 2007 was the use of YouTube as an outlet for political messages. (Heck, CNN built two whole debates around the technology.) And so, TechPresident has put together its list of the best political videos of 2007 - they are all available on YouTube of course.

First TechPresident offers its ten-best videos made by the candidates' campaigns - "official" ads. It rates the "Students for Obama" video number one and "a great piece of campaign propaganda." The Hillary Clinton-Sopranos parody was number two, while the Clinton's took number three as well with "Caucusing is easy" which features a hamburger, Bill Clinton, and Hillary singing the national anthem. (Be afraid, be very afraid.)

It also offers up the top-ten voter-generated videos. Number one, and still the most viewed political video this year: the Hillary Clinton 1984 video that's a take off of the famous Apple McIntosh ad. In fact, Sen. Clinton is the "subject" of the all of the top four videos in this list. (Mind you, there's something here to offend the supporters of most candidates.)

After looking at both lists, you would hope that Clinton remembers the words of Oscar Wilde: "The only thing worse than being talked about it being not talked about."

McCain's Crowds Growing in New Hampshire

It was a very good weekend for Republican Senator John McCain in New Hampshire. As NPR's Josh Rogers reports, his rallies are attracting larger and larger crowds.

Many of those in attendance had previously written him off because his campaign seemed out-of-steam, or because he was too "soft" on immigration. But last week's assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan has given voters in the state a reason to reconsider McCain.

In his speeches in the Granite State, McCain lists off the world leaders that he's already met and why he is the right man for the job, particularly against "radical Islamic jihadism." He's quick to point out the lack of experience his main competitor, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, has in this area.

An American Research Group poll from Dec. 30 shows Romney and McCain tied at 30 percent each in New Hampshire. (A month ago the same poll shows McCain at 11 percent.) Perhaps sensing that he's not going to win Iowa (most polls show him in third or fourth place), McCain is spending almost the entire week in New Hampshire in search of the upset that looks increasingly in his grasp.

Bloomberg Increasingly Eyes Presidential Run

The New York Times reports that, buoyed by the lack of a clear frontrunner in either party, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is "growing increasingly enchanted with the idea of an independent presidential bid." And he's got the money to do it - unlike the other candidates, criss-crossing the country in search of financial support, Bloomberg is a billionaire who could run the most expensive campaign for the presidency ever, and not even dent his pocketbook.

The Times reports that while he continues to deny in public any plans to run, he has become more open with his friends about his interest in running. This weekend, he will attend a bipartisan meeting of U.S. political figures who will urge the candidates to close the bi-partisan divide. Past reports have indicated that if he did run. Bloomberg would cast himself as a bipartisan president ready to work with both sides.

A Bloomberg candidacy would present some interesting scenarios. If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and Hilary Clinton the Democratic one, it would mean three New Yorkers would be running for president. And if Ron Paul also makes an independent run, as some have suggested he might do, that would mean there would be four well-financed candidates fighting it out for the Oval Office.

Weekend Does Little to Clarify Races in Iowa

Well, that weekend didn't do much to clear up the situation in Iowa.

After more scrambling around the state by the candidates, NPR's Don Gonyea reports that the races look tighter than ever. Most of the campaigns are aiming for the undecided caucus-goer, which some polls put as high as one in five.

On the Republican side, it appears that Mitt Romney's negative ads about Mike Huckabee have brought him back to the pack, after a surge when he appeared to be pulling away. A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Romney ahead 27 percent to 23 percent (but only 400 likely caucus goers, margin of error +/- five percent). A Zogby poll (934 likely caucus goers, +/- 3.3 percent) shows Huckabee with a one-point lead, 29 to 28 percent.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton spent the weekend emphasizing her experience again, and also telling NBC's Tim Russert that her husband wouldn't be a part of any national security council meetings in her administration. The Zogby poll shows her with a small lead over Sen. Barack Obama at 31 to 27 percent. John Edwards sits at 24 percent. But the Edwards people are stressing the Mason-Dixon poll, which shows their guy with a one-point lead over Clinton and two over Obama: 24 to 23 to 22.

December 28, 2007

Not Everyone in Iowa Crazy About The Caucuses

There's little doubt that "Get Outta Our Town," a tongue-in-cheek YouTube song/video from Jason Walsmith of The Nadas and Kyle Munson of The Des Moines Register, sums up how more than a few people in Iowa really feel about the caucuses and the candidate and media circus that comes along every four years.

Obama, Clinton, Edwards Battle for Airtime

It looks like an Iowa example of "anything you can do I can do better." Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards are waging yet another skirmish, this time to see who can get the most commercial airtime on January 2nd, the night before the Iowa caucuses.

On Thursday the Clinton campaign announced that she would buy a 2-minute block of airtime on every 6 p.m. newscast in the state. Not to be outdone, the Obama campaign announced Friday that it would try to buy a two- or five-minute window of time during the stations' local newscasts, during the period between local news and primetime programming, or during primetime. And the campaign want to know if Obama can do it live via-satellite.

But as ABCNews notes, there is almost no way that all the stations in the state can provide a big block of airtime during those periods, yet alone all at the same time so that Obama could do a live commercial. The stations have instead offered him two-minute windows either during its local newscast or in one case, during the the Iowa State versus University of South Carolina basketball game.

Not to be outdone, Edwards also said Friday that he too would like some airtime - a 90-second spot during the local newscasts.

And that's just the Democrats.

If this keeps up, the actual local newscasts will be about 30 seconds long Tuesday night, and the rest of the program will be candidates' commercials

Edwards Campaign Feeling Good About Iowa

For most of the months of November and December in Iowa, the media has focused their attention on the battle between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party's nomination for president. Former Sen. John Edwards looked to be running a sometimes distant third as the top two candidates jostled back and forth.

But two new polls show that the Democratic race for Iowa is a genuine three-way contest. A survey of 600 likely Democratic voters in Iowa by Strategic Vision on Dec. 26 and 27 shows Obama with the support of 30 percent of those polled, Clinton with 29 percent and Edwards with 28 percent. Meanwhile, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows Clinton with 29 percent, Obama with 26 percent and Edwards with 25 percent.

But perhaps more important in the Times.Bloomberg poll, Edwards is the second choice of 23 percent of those who plan on going to the caucus, in particular those who prefer Sen. Joseph Biden and Gov. Bill Richardson as their first choice. Those who prefer Sen. Chris Dodd are split between Clinton and Edwards. In the Democratic caucuses, a candidate needs to be preferred by at least 15 percent of those in attendance at a precinct meeting. If they don't get that 15 percent, they are considered non-viable and their supporters may choose a different candidate to back.

Politico notes that Edwards has another advantage. Edwards' campaign "boasts the most deeply rooted rural operation, allowing it to possibly win small precincts across the state that could prove crucial in the final tally."

This is not an unfamiliar situation for Edwards. In 2004, most polls taken a few weeks before the caucuses showed him in 4th place. But a poll done the day before showed he had moved into second, which is where he finished.

Ron Paul Could Do Well in New Hampshire

It's all about the independents in New Hampshire. How well a candidate does in the Granite State's primary can often depend on how many of those independents he or she attracts. And Felice Belman, executive editor of the liberal Concord Monitor, and Joe McQuaid, publisher of the conservative New Hampshire Union Leader, say the candidate who might get a lot of support from independents this year is Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul.

"He doesn't show up much in the polls, but yes I do think he could do very well here," McQuaid told Melissa Block on All Things Considered. "I don't think he'll do well past here, but I think he'll surprise people."

Belman agreed

"His issues are so disparate that he'll pull from a lot of different groups ...fiscal conservatives ... anti-abortion people ... anti-war people. That's not a typical kind of primary voter. He'll take away from everybody."

While both journalists think that the voters of New Hampshire are watching Iowa closely, neither thinks that the state's voters are waiting to see the results before making up their minds about who to support.

"If there is a surprise in Iowa, that'll make people perhaps reconsider who that surprising person is," says Belman. "But I don't think they are waiting to see what is happening in Iowa."

December 27, 2007

Could Bhutto's Death Affect the Outcome of Races?

In a few moments, in a country thousands of miles away, the race for the two parties presidential nominations may have shifted. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto reintroduces the issue of security from terrorism only a few days before the Iowa caucuses.

The lack of focus on security had particularly boosted candidates like Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama, enabling them to downplay their lack of experience and talk about change. It hurt candidates like Rudy Giuliani, who had built his whole campaign around his security credentials as the mayor of New York during the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

But Bhutto's death means that GOP candidates like Guiliani and John McCain - who have talked about their experience and security credentials - can re-emphasize that message. For Democrat Hillary Clinton, it underscores her message about the importance of having someone as president who isn't learning on the job.

And you can sense from the candidates' comments today that they are aware of this shift, with some already talking about how their security experience is better than their opponents. For instance, McCain took a swipe at Giuliani, noting that "I think he did a great job post-9/11 handling a post-crisis situation. I don't know how that credential - how that provides one the credentials to address national security issues."

Candidates Condemn Bhutto Assassination

Almost all of the candidates running for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations released statements today condemning the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

* Sen. Joe Biden said that "Like her father before her, Benazir Bhutto worked her whole life, and gave her life, to help Pakistan become a democratic, secular and modern Muslim country."

* John Edwards described her as a "brave and historic leader for Pakistan."

* Mike Huckabee said that while Bhutto's death was troubling, "we are reminded that while our democracy has flaws, it stands as a shining beacon of hope for nations and people around the world who seek peace and opportunity through self-government."

* Sen. Chris Dodd, who said he had been in touch with Bhutto in the past few weeks, said her death shows the "experienced leadership our country needs at a time when critical regions around the world are in turmoil."

* Mitt Romney said her death shows the "reality of global, violent radical jihadism around the world."

* Sen. Barack Obama described her as "a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people."

* Sen. John McCain said her death "deeply saddened him" and that it "underscores yet again the grave dangers we face in the world today and particularly in countries like Pakistan, where the forces of moderation are arrayed in a fierce battle against those who embrace violent Islamic extremism."

* Sen. Hillary Clinton, who noted that she had known Bhutto for many years, called her death "a tragedy for her country and a terrible reminder of the work that remains to bring peace, stability, and hope to regions of the globe too often paralyzed by fear, hatred, and violence."

* Rudy Giuiani said the assassination was a "tragic event for Pakistan" and that "Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere - whether in New York, London, Tel-Aviv or Rawalpindi - is an enemy of freedom."

* Gov. Bill Richardson called Bhutto "a courageous woman," and is the only candidate so far to call for the removal of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. Until that happens the U.S. "should suspend military aid to the Pakistani government. Free and fair elections must also be held as soon as possible."

* Rep. Dennis Kucinich called it a "dangerous moment for the world" and that "The United States must change its policy direction in the region. It must stop adding fuel to the fire."

* Rep. Ron Paul said in a radio interview that ""We've supported Musharraf and now it's created some civil strife."

Congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle also condemned the killing, and said that Pakistani elections must go forward. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said Bhutto's bravery "stands in stark contrast to the cowardice of those who remain committed only to chaos, murder and thwarting democracy in Pakistan. It is our expectation that President Musharraf and the Pakistani people will go forward with free and fair elections."

Could Democratic Result in Iowa Affect GOP in N.H.?

Here's an interesting question that's been posed by some following the candidates in the early states: could the Democratic result in Iowa determine who the Republican winner is in New Hampshire?

How could such a scenario work? Well, it has a lot to do with the way independents vote in New Hampshire.

For instance, if Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama doesn't win or do well in Iowa's caucuses a week from today, than many independents who had been planning to vote for him in New Hampshire might have a change of heart. If it doesn't look like he could win the Democratic nomination, and they don't want to vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton, they could decide to go for another favorite with independents - Republican Sen. John McCain. (Independents can vote in either party's primary in New Hampshire.) They could give him enough of a lift to pull an upset over longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney.

If Obama does do well in Iowa, however, those independents could stay with him and that could hurt McCain's chances.

NPR's Ina Jaffe, who is in Iowa, says don't rule out the possibility of this happening. "Right now the whole thing is up for grabs," she says. "Anything seems possible."

Record Caucus Turnout Expected This Year in Iowa

"It's been an incredible caucus season ... we anticipate a record turn out, lots of first time caucus goers."

That's the take of Mary Sharp, editor of the Cedar Rapids Gazette in Iowa. Sharp and Bret Hayworth, political editor at the Sioux City Journal told Robert Siegel on All Things Considered that they've seen few Iowa caucuses like the one this year. Hayworth, who comes from a part of the state that largely votes Republican, says the top three Democrats are drawing the big crowds this year in his area, which is unusual - although Mike Huckabee is also doing well. Sharp, who comes from a more pro-Democrat part of Iowa, says she's hearing all kinds of reason why people are voting for the candidates.

"The differences between people in the same party aren't that great," she says. "So people starting talking about personality, or warmth, or the potential for change. You hear that a lot .. and electability is being talked about a lot ... "

And both Sharp and Hayworth say trying to judge the outcome of this race by the polls can be a big mistake - lots of surprises can still happen.

Sharp, for instance, notes that first time caucus goers may not even be registered voters, and so may not be included by some pollsters. Independents can also change registration night of the caucuses. And for the Democrats, there is the whole issue of viability.

Under the Democratic Party caucus system in Iowa, a candidate must first be determined to be viable. If he or she isn't preferred by 15 percent of the attendees at that precinct, they are determined to be not viable, and their supporters can back other candidates during the rest of the session. That means being the second choice on many caucus-goers' list is important. Sharp says the Edwards people, who have been through this process before in 2004, have worked that angle "pretty well."

Hayworth sees turn out as the key factor for the Republicans, who use a straight "vote for your favorite candidate" system. He notes, for instance, that the caucuses are up against the Orange Bowl football game (Iowa is a football crazy state). The game, the weather, or indifference can kill a candidate's chances if it means his supporters decide to stay home. "It's all about turnout," says Hayworth.

December 26, 2007

Outcomes Hard to Predict in Iowa

As the last few days dribble away before the Iowa caucuses, it's pretty much agreed that no one can confidently predict what going to happen a week from tomorrow night. Oh, there are polls ... lots of them. And while they show some people have slipped and others have surged, all the major candidates remain within striking distance of each other.

For instance, an American Research Group poll a week ago (600 likely Democrats surveyed, error of +/- 4 percent) showed Clinton at 29 percent and Obama at 24 percent. But a Christmas Eve poll showed Clinton with 34 percent and Obama back down at 19 percent. (Edwards polls 20 percent.)

On the other hand, a Strategic Vision poll (600 likely Democratic voters), taken only a couple of days before the ARG one, shows Obama with 30 percent and Clinton and Edwards with 27 each. And in the same period, CNN had it 30 percent for Clinton, 28 for Obama, and 26 for Edwards.

On the Republican side, Dick Bennett, president of the American Research Group, laughs and says "Take eight cards and toss them up in the air." He says there are "very few, very strong" supporters of any of the leading candidates. In the latest ARG poll, Mike Huckabee has come back towards the pack, slipping from 28 percent to 23 percent. And Bennett says Iowan Republicans are telling ARG interviewers who they'll vote for .. and then why they don't like that candidate. "I've never seen anything like it before," he says.

Again, showing the wide difference in these polls, Strategic Vision had Huckabee with 31 percent. Huckabee was doing even better in the CNN survey, racking up 33 percent.

As Ina Jaffe noted in an earlier blog today, the candidates themselves are madly dashing around the state these last few days, trying to convince late-deciders to jump on their bandwagons. But you can bet the real push this week, especially behind the photo ops, is to make sure they can get their know-supporters lined up and ready to go to the caucus meetings next Thursday.

But getting supporters lined up too early can hurt too. Bennett points out that in 1992 in New Hampshire, George H.W. Bush identified supporters early. But many of them changed their minds and went to Pat Buchanan. So Bush ended up bringing many of his opponents' supporters to the polls.

Another New Hampshire Paper Slams Romney

Mitt Romney must be asking himself what he ever did to annoy the editorial boards of two of New Hampshire's larger papers. Whatever it was, their decisions to rake him over the coals publicly could not come at a worse time for his campaign. (That noise the former Massachusetts governor can hear over the Christmas carols is the sound of Sen. John McCain charging up from behind.)

Last week, the more liberal Concord Monitor wrote an editorial entitled "Romney should not be president," and called him "a disquieting figure who sure looks like the next president and most surely must be stopped." What made this broadside even more damaging is that the paper has not officially endorsed a candidate yet, which made this an anti-endorsement.

Then today, the Manchester Union-Leader, the state's largest, most conservative and most influential paper, piled on Romney. In an editorial, the paper notes that Romney has been in the state more times than any other candidate, that his rallies have been mostly well-attended, and that he has other advantages like money, organization and that most of the people in the state know who he is because of his years as Massachusetts' governor.

But, the editorial adds, he hasn't been able to close the deal, and that's because he lacks one thing that McCain "has in spades: conviction." People can sense, it adds, that Romney's words are "memorized but not heart-felt."

The Union-Leader does have a horse in this race - it has already endorsed McCain as the best Republican candidate.

A Reporter's Christmas in Iowa

This was a good day to get ready for the onslaught to come. Candidates begin campaigning again in Iowa Wednesday morning. In perusing their various schedules I noticed that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be here over the weekend. Since Giuliani has staked his fortunes on the Florida primary on January 29th and on the February 5th states, this 11th hour visit to Iowa is one of this campaign season's mysteries. Polls show him coming in a very distant third or fourth here.

Skating on Thin Ice

The metaphor is irresistible: Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, he of the single digit poll numbers, gliding around in circles on a downtown Des Moines ice rink.

The Democratic candidate moved his family to Des Moines, all the better to be close to potential caucus goers. It hasn't done him any detectable good in the polls. But it did mean he had a home to which he could invite about two dozen Iowa staffers who couldn't make it to their own homes on Christmas. And before the chili and hot chocolate, they all went skating together.

One the skaters was Henry Johnson, Dodd's field organizer for northwest Iowa. What follows is the first interview I have ever done while skating. (I'm not from L.A., I'm from Chicago. I skate.)

Henry graduated from Columbia Union College in Takoma Park, Maryland just last year. He's been with the campaign for 4 months, working 18 hour days,7 days a week. "You represent the candidate," he says. "It's a big responsibility and a privilege." He talked about really getting involved in the communities where he organizes.

How involved? "Well, I painted somebody's house once." He'd wanted them to have a campaign event at their home, they said it was a mess, so he painted it for them.

This is the first time he hasn't been home for Christmas and his mother's upset. It's made worse by the fact that everyone else in his family is a Republican and he's abandoning them this year to help a Democrat.

So, how does he soldier on when he knows that things don't look good for his guy? It's easy for him, he says, because he's come to respect Dodd so much, both for his positions and for the way he treats his staff like family. "I'm not embarrassed to be working for him. It's not like the day after the election I'm going to want to rip the bumper sticker off my car."

Henry is game, an adventurer. He's from Georgia and this was his first time on skates. He did just fine.

Post script

At the NPR/Iowa Public Radio debate, Dodd said he was buying his daughters (Grace, 6 and Christina, 2) "Iowa toys" for Christmas. In an interview with Morning Edition's Steve Innskeep that aired on Christmas morning, he said he could not reveal what those toys were because presents had not been opened yet and the girls could hear him.

So I asked Dodd about it at the skating rink and it can now be revealed! The Dodd daughters received children's books by Iowa authors and some handmade wood craft toys, including a tic tac toe set, trucks and cars, and "some kind of macrame, uh, um.... " "Like a yarn thing?" I suggested unhelpfully. "Yeah, that's it," he said,"a yarn thing."

--Ina Jaffe

December 21, 2007

The Accidental Deregulation of the FEC

Campaign finance laws not crazy enough for you? Check this out.

The Senate left town this week without resolving a deadlock over nominations to the Federal Election Commission. The upshot: Come January, the FEC won't be able to decide anything.

The commission officially has six members. This year it's had five. Thanks to the deadlock, three are going away. That leaves Republican David Mason and Democrat Ellen Weintraub. Both of their terms have expired, by the way. They can keep serving until their replacements arrive.

By law, the commission needs four affirmative votes for any action.

So, at least for now, the FEC can't respond when candidates ask for advice, can't write regulations, can't even enforce the law. The pending enforcement actions date from the 2004 and 2006 campaigns -- yes, that's how long these things take -- but they define the rules for politicians and advocacy groups right now. And the advisory opinions guide requesters and everybody else as to what's permissible.

The FEC may be the least-liked agency in Washington (certainly so on Capitol Hill), but nobody before ever tried to disable it like this.

The irony is that it's probably not deliberate. Rather, it's collateral damage from the upheavals at the Justice Department.

Long before the storm broke over the decision to fire U.S. attorneys, and alleged politicization in DOJ's Voting Rights Section, one appointee from Voting Rights, Hans von Spakovsky, had been installed at the FEC. He was a recess appointee, as were Democrats Robert Lenhard, a labor lawyer, and Steven Walther, a Nevada lawyer and friend of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Salaries for recess appointees run only until the end of the next session of Congress -- i.e., now -- and when President Bush nominated the three for full terms, several Democratic senators objected to von Spakovsky.

Von Spakovsky has a long and aggressive record supporting strict voter identification laws. Civil rights groups call that discriminatory. Reid urged separate votes on the three nominees. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said they should be voted on as a group, the traditional way, and he calculated that Reid wouldn't leave Walther dangling. But Reid did.

And there we are: the most heavily financed presidential campaign in history, money flowing by the millions to House and Senate candidates, advocacy groups pushing the limits on what's regulated or not. And the enforcement agency, well, out of commission.

-- Peter Overby

Visits to Huckabee, Edwards Websites Surge

It's not the most important indicator of how a candidate is doing, but it is another measurement that helps create an overall-picture: the amount of time that people spend online each month looking at websites created by presidential candidates. And the folks at Complete, which measures this kind of statistical information, have released the Candidates Face Time data for November.

And the big face time winners are ... (drum roll, please) Mike Huckabee and John Edwards. Huckabee saw the amount of time people spent at his websites increase by 194 percent. Edwards's went up 181 percent. (Barack Obama still gets the most visits over all for Democrats, but his growth was much slower than Edwards in November.) TechPresident reports that both were helped by popular videos on their sites: Huckabee's Chuck Norris endorsement, and Edwards for his Parsing of Politics attack on Hilary Clinton.

When it comes to online face time, however, one candidate reigns supreme. Texas Rep. Ron Paul still gets almost twice as much online attention as the person in second-place, Huckabee.

McCain Denies Allegations He Did Lobbyist Favors

If there is one thing that separates Sen. John McCain from the rest of the pack of candidates in the eyes of many primary and caucus voters, it's his integrity and willingness to stick to his principles regardless of the heat he takes for doing so. In fact, when the Des Moines Register gave him its endorsement for the Republican nomination for president earlier this month, it specifically mentioned those qualities as being some of the main reasons it was doing so.

So he hasn't wasted anytime dealing with allegations that he did favors for a Washington lobbyist or her clients. The allegations apparently are based on an investigation being carried out by The New York Times. (Word of the investigation originally appeared on the Drudge Report website.) McCain has hired prominent Washington lawyer Robert Bennett to handle the situation. Bennett also defended McCain in 1989 during the Senate ethics committee investigation into five senators and their dealings with convicted savings-and-loan executive Charles Keating.

McCain says he finds the timing of the investigation "very interesting" and that he is not going to allow a repeat of the 2000 South Carolina primary where false personal rumors about his illegitimately fathering a black child may have cost him the election.

At Year's End, Both Parties Races Still Wide Open

What a long, strange presidential nomination race it's been ... so far. As 2007 comes to a close, NPR's Mara Liaason reports that long time frontrunners for their party's presidential nominations are suddenly struggling to either keep their leads or regain them. Candidates once written off as unknown or too inexperienced are suddenly surging. And a guy from Texas who never seems to get much media attention out fund-raises all the other candidates running for his party's nomination.

For months and months, it looked like Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign team was the New England Patriots of the Democratic Party — it just couldn't lose. Clinton had the endorsements, the money, the poll numbers, you name it. She was on her way to convincing every one she was the inevitable Democratic nominee.

But as Mara notes, in October the pre-race ended, people in the early voting states started to pay more attention and the Clinton campaign blinked. It was the debate in Philadelphia at the end of October where Hillary Clinton first seemed to falter, with her "I'm for it, I'm against it" answer to the need for driver's licenses for illegal immigrants in New York.

And it took Obama a while to get into gear, says Democratic strategist Bill Carrick. At the same time, he says, the Clinton persona as the candidate of experience "just ran out of gas," and she hasn't been able to change her direction very well. Meanwhile, Obama is trying to sure up his weakness on foreign affairs, and John Edwards has continued to build his campaign. What was once see as inevitable has become a three-way race.

Over on the other side the nomination is also still up for grabs — which Republican insiders say is unusual for the "follow the leader party. For instance, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the leader for a long time in Iowa. But recent polls show that he has surrendered that lead to Mike Huckabee, largely thanks to the surge of support among evangelical Christians for the former Arkansas governor.

Huckabee may be looking good now, but his campaign faces a larger question — does it have legs? Is he a spoiler, bringing Romney down in Iowa so that another candidate, like McCain, can undermine him in New Hampshire? Or will the funding Huckabee needs so badly to stick around come if he does win in Iowa? Then there is Rudy Giuliani, whose Feb. 5 strategy is looking more like a "Hail Mary" pass, as one party strategist described it. It might work, he notes, but most times those passes don't connect.

And then don't forget Ron Paul, who has shown that he can raise enough money to stay in the race for a long time, even if the polls seem to be overwhelmingly against him.

As Mara describes it, a complete free-for-all.

December 20, 2007

Fred Thompson Looks for Magic in Bus Tour of Iowa

The people who go to former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson's political gatherings say they are quite unlike those of other candidates: "Less like a revival, much more relaxed than that," said one Iowan.

And as NPR's Robert Smith reports, that is exactly what his campaign people want. They hope people will come to these meetings and soak up the Fred. But they are now worried that not enough soaking is happening, since Thompson waited so long to actually announce his candidacy. So he's now on a 50-city and town tour of Iowa, so that the Fred can be spread around to more places.

But even as he tries to get out more, there is a certain film-timing quality to his stops. For instance, in Tipton, Iowa, his tour of the town lasted about 17-minutes — or about the length of a good action sequence in a movie. Another stop was canceled altogether because the sidewalks were too icy.

People seem to like Thompson, Smith says, although there are more laughs than cheers at his meetings with Iowans. As for his late entry into the GOP contest, Thompson dismisses that concern, saying these days making a decision about which candidate to support is like going to the dentist; people put it off for as long as they can.

And he's betting his campaign on the hope that enough caucus goers haven't made those 'appointments' yet and will go to him instead.

Romney Didn't 'Literally' See Dad March with King

Do Mitt Romney and his team do all the necessary fact checking before he says something on the campaign trail? Or do they think that other people won't fact check statements by a major presidential candidate? For instance, his remark that he remembers seeing his dad, former Michigan Governor George Romney, marching with civil rights leader Martin Luther King. Jr. in the 60s in Michigan.

Romney originally said it in his recent major speech on religion in America. Then he repeated the remark during an appearance on NBC's Meet the Press: "You can see what I believed and what my family believed by looking at our lives. My dad marched with Martin Luther King. My mom was a tireless crusader for civil rights."

Unfortunately, it looks like it never happened. Certainly not Mitt Romney seeing it, and maybe not the march at all. Now Romney campaign officials are saying that he only meant the remark figuratively, not literally, when he said he saw his father and King march together.

The Romney campaign offered a 1967 book written by Stephen Hess and Washington Post political columnist David Broder, as confirmation that George Romney marched with King in Grosse Pointe in 1963.

But the Boston alternative paper, the Boston Phoenix, said it could find no evidence of Romney marching with King. And the Detroit Free Press said its archives showed no record of King marching in Grosse Pointe in 1963 or of then-Gov. Romney taking part in a King's march in another part of Detroit in June of that year. Romney did march in Grosse Point a few days after the June march, but King was not there according to eye-witnesses.

The elder Romney, however, was well-known for his support of civil rights. The Romney campaign said it was going to further research his papers for evidence of his contact with King.

Update: The Boston Phoenix is now reporting that the Romney campaign is saying that George W. Romney and Martin Luther King Jr. marched together in June, 1963 -— although possibly not on the same day or in the same city.

"Romney, according to one piece of written source material provided by the campaign, made a 'surprise' appearance at a small march in Grosse Pointe, Michigan, in late June — several days after King led a much larger march in Detroit. Romney spokesperson Eric Fehrnstrom suggests that these two were part of the same 'series' of events, co-sponsored by King and the NAACP, and is thus consistent with [Mitt] Romney's claim that 'I saw my father march with Martin Luther King.' "

The campaign also provided a quote from a book that said the elder Romney "was among the prominent whites marching with Reverend King" in the [Detroit Freedom March on June 23, 1963] (which the book erroneously says took place on July 23)." But as the Phoenix notes, contemporaneous and historical accounts say Romney didn't take part in this march because it was on a Sunday and that Romney did not make public appearances on the Sabbath.

Kerrey Apologizes to Obama for Muslim Remark

Former Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey has apologized to follow Democrat Barack Obama.

The Associated Press is reporting that the apology was for any unintentional insult Kerrey committed by raising the presidential candidate's Muslim heritage while endorsing rival candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton. (Obama is a Christian.)

In an interview with the Washington Post on Sunday detailing why he was supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton, Kerrey (who is currently the president of New School University in NYC) also mused on some of the qualifications Obama had for president: "It's probably not something that appeals to him, but I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama, and that his father was a Muslim and that his paternal grandmother is a Muslim. There's a billion people on the planet that are Muslims and I think that experience is a big deal."

Kerrey sent a letter to Obama yesterday, lauding the Illinois senator's qualifications to be president and saying that he "never meant to harm his candidacy." Kerrey told AP in a telephone interview that he sent the letter on his own and had not spoken to Clinton or her campaign about the comments he made Sunday in Iowa. Obama spokesman Bill Burton said the senator accepted Kerrey's apology, sent to the campaign in the mail and via e-mail.

Minuteman Founder's Support for Huckabee Shaky

Jim Gilchrist, one of the founders of the Minuteman Project, seems a little shaky in his support of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

Gilchrist, whose group monitors border areas in protest of what it considers inadequate enforcement measures by the federal government, made headlines last week when he announced his support for Huckabee — who was then quick to point to this support as a way to counter charges from former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney that he was "too liberal" on immigration policy.

But then Monday there were reports from conservative online news outlets that Gilchrist was reconsidering his support for Huckabee because he had learned that Huckabee's plan included measures he didn't agree with. Yet a day later, in a series of radio interviews, Gilchrist said that he planned to stick with Huckabee, even if his immigration plan was not perfect.

One thing is certain: Gilchrist's support of Huckabee has further widen the gap between him and many of his former anti-immigration supporters. The Americans for Legal Immigration, or ALIPAC, has a posting on its website, signed by leaders of 84 other "immigration enforcement" groups, attacking Gilchrist for this action.

"We denounce Jim Gilchrist's solo endorsement of a pro-amnesty and Open Borders candidate for President. Mr. Gilchrist does NOT speak for us! ... Mike Huckabee is pro-amnesty and favors a 'path to citizenship' for illegal aliens currently in the US, which would require a lifting of the current penalties," the posting declares.

Report: Tancredo Will Drop Presidential Bid

Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado, whose opinions on immigration — both legal and illegal -— have given him a national audience, will announce today that he is dropping his bid for his party's presidential nomination.

The Associated Press reports that a person close to the Tancredo campaign said that the congressman will make the announcement at a press conference in Des Moines. For their part, campaign officials would only say that Tancredo will make a "major announcement" on Thursday.

Tancredo has not shied away from controversy since announcing his candidacy, He ran a controversial ad that showed a terrorist attack in an american shopping mall. He said in the ad that such an attack was possible in the U.S. as the result of open borders that let 'jihadists' into the country. He has also taken credit for some of the political woes that Sen. John McCain suffered during the summer and in states like Iowa, attacking the Arizona senator for his support of President Bush's failed immigration bill. (McCain's has enjoyed a resurgence recently with several key endorsements in Iowa and New Hampshire.)

Tancredo has said that he will not seek a sixth term in Congress, but that he might try for the open Senate seat in Colorado that will be available next election due to the retirement of Sen. Wayne Allard.

Update: Tancredo has withdrawn from the race for the Republican nomination for president, and endorsed Mitt Romney.

December 19, 2007

What Endorsement of McCain Means for Lieberman

When Independent Democrat Sen. Joe Lieberman announced his support for Republican Sen. John McCain, it had more than a few people wondering if the Democratic party might take some action against him.

So Ken Rudin looks at the history of other Democrats who have defied party labels and backed Republicans in this week's Political Junkie column. Some have paid a price, some haven't.

Also, Ken looks at the familial ties between Reps. Mark Udall (D-CO) and Tom Udall (D-NM) and Republican Senator Gordon Smith. Looks like the Bush and Clinton families aren't the only ones in the politics business.

McCain's Presidential Bid Showing New Life

William Goldman, the Hollywood screenwriter who wrote such films as "Marathon Man," "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid," and "The Princess Bride," has two famous rules about Hollywood: nobody knows anything and structure is everything.

The campaign of Republican Senator John McCain shows the same rules can apply in their own way to the quest for the presidential nomination. Over the summer, McCain's bid was all but written off by pundits, politicians and experts because of mismanagement and fund-raising problems. Most people thought he would be forced to drop out of the campaign long before Christmas.

The person who didn't write it off was McCain himself. He stuck to his "structure" and kept campaigning, regardless of the situation. (At one point, he even had to lay off some of his staff because of a lack of funds.)

And as NPR's Audie Cornish reports rumors pf McCain's demise have been greatly exaggerated. He is seeing brighter days on the campaign trail, and is back in the hunt for New Hampshire. He's been getting a lot of endorsements, from people like Boston Red Sox star pitcher Curt Shilling and Independent Democrat Sen. Joe Lieberman (more on that in Ken Rudin's Political Junkie column today), and many newspapers.

McCain says he knows this endorsement won't necessarily get people to vote for him, but they will push people to give him another look. Currently most polls show McCain is now in second place in New Hampshire, anywhere from four to eleven percentage points behind longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney.

Huckabee's Wily Christmas Campaign

It's a pretty wily tactic ... the Christmas ad designed to catch your political rivals completely off-guard.

And as NPR's Martin Kaste reports, it's been a particularly effective one for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in Iowa. After former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney aired two negative ads that went after Huckabee's record in immigration and crime fighting, Huckabee did not fire back — instead, he ran a Christmas-themed ad, with heavy emphasis on its religious meaning. In the ad, Huckabee said it wasn't the time of the year for more political ads, because he knew people minds were on other things. And he just wanted to wish them Merry Christmas.

(Huckabee was not the first Republican candidate to air a Christmas-oriented ad. Rep. Ron Paul was actually first to the post. And the Democrats are getting in on the act ... just this morning, Senator Barack Obama released a 'Holiday' ad, with one of Obama's daughters wishing 'Merry Christmas' and the other 'Happy Holidays.')

Bill Hillsman, the award-winning ad man who created campaigns for independents like former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura, said Huckabee's effort will stand out from the noise of other political ads, and is a preemptive strike against anyone who tried to take him down.

Romney people, for their part, say they will be respectful of the time of the year, but they will continue to bring up issues of importance to the citizens of Iowa.

December 18, 2007

Candidates Target Ads to Fit Region, Demographics

If you were visiting South Carolina from Iowa, and heard or saw a Barack Obama campaign ad, you might think to yourself, "Wait a minute, that's not what I'm hearing back on the farm in Iowa."

That because, as NPR's Martin Kaste explains, the candidates target their ads to fit their audience and region. For instance, that Obama ad in South Carolina, which tells the the Illinois senator's personal story and how, as a young boy, he was raised by a single mother, is aimed at African-Americans. It's been so successful, with its smooth rhythm and blues sound track, other candidates are trying the same approach.

Republicans, meanwhile, have been buying lots of airtime on the Christian rock station in Des Moines. Station manager, Eric Boatright, says while Democratic candidates have inquired about advertising on the station, none of them have aired any commercials. Republicans (except for maybe Rep. Tom Tancredo) and Democrats are running ads on Spanish-language radio stations in the early primary states - although none of the ads touch on the immigration issue.

There is a reason for that. As Martin reports, you can be too specific with your ads, especially with Spanish advertisements. "The days when you could hide your Hispanic political-marketing efforts under a bushel are gone," said Luis Clemens, an editor at the Hispanic political Web site Candidato U.S.A. "Everyone's going to be able to find out about it and translate those ads very quickly."

Clinton's Friends Take a Shot at Obama For Her

The Clinton campaign may have gone all cuddly in Iowa, but her friends are still out to kneecap Barack Obama.

The PAC of the public employees union AFSCME quietly dropped $34,083 yesterday on its first anti-Obama mailing in the state. The flier should hit the mailboxes of some 70,000 Iowa women Wednesday or Thursday. It's about the need for universal health care, bolstering the Clinton argument that Obama's reform plan leaves many people behind.

AFSCME represents 1.4 million state, county and municipal workers. The union endorsed Clinton in October, and spent about 34 g's on a mail piece praising her earlier this month.

Going into the home stretch in Iowa, Clinton has far and away the most support from outside groups — nearly $500,000 worth of mail, phone banks, television, even Google and Yahoo ads, paid for by AFSCME, the American Federation of Teachers PAC, and the pro-choice group EMILY's List. John Edwards has gotten about $34,000 worth of independent support from the United Brotherhood of Carpenters PAC — everything from bumper stickers to hard-hat decals. And the International Association of Firefighters PAC has plunked down more than $11,000 to buy banners and billboards promoting Christopher Dodd's bid.

If there's any similar activity by independent actors on the Republican side, it hasn't been disclosed yet.

-- Peter Overby

Giulinai Rolls Dice With Feb. 5 Strategy

The polls are showing that Rudy Giuliani's campaign is in trouble.

Recent surveys from CBS News, the American Research Group and CNN all show that Giuliani's once formidable national lead over his rivals has almost disappeared. All of these above polls show Iowa frontrunner Mike Huckabee only a percent point or two behind him, or in a tie.

Giuliani has not made much of an effort in either Iowa or New Hampshire, and over the weekend there were reports that he was cutting back on his ad buys in the Granite State. His strategy has always been to ignore the early voting states and concentrate on big states like California, New Jersey and New York on Feb. 5. As NPR's Ina Jaffe reported on the blog on Saturday, Giuliani gave a major speech in Tampa on Saturday as part of that effort.

But now some campaign observers are wondering if perhaps he made a mistake not campaigning more aggressively in the early states. People love winners, they point out, and if Huckabee wins Iowa and South Carolina, and does well in New Hampshire, and Giuliani is down in the pack in all three, then Huckabee will go into the Feb. 5 states with a "winners" aura.

That's why Florida on Jan. 29th has taken on special importance for Giuliani. Polls show him with a 13-point lead, although Huckabee is gaining there as well. The Giuliani campaign people, who have repeatedly said they are not worried despite what the polls are saying, are counting on a win there to him return some of the luster to the former New York mayor's campaign.

Sen. Clinton Tries More Personal Approach

In Hillary Clinton, one senses a longing for that Sally Field's moment, when she can cry out loud, "You like me, you really, really like me."

But as NPR's David Greene reports from the Clinton campaign in Iowa, that likability factor is weighing heavily on the minds of the candidate and her top organizers. So Clinton is crisscrossing Iowa, trying to reintroduce her "real" self. Clinton has toned down her message of "experience counts the most" and is going for "I want you to see my real side."

Her campaign has launched a new website called "The Hillary I Know." She has old friends traveling the state, talking about her. And in Johnston, Iowa yesterday, she talked to a crowd about how she wanted them to get to know who she was and what she does "when no one is listening, or taking notes and recording it."

David says that what you hear from a lot of people who have seen Clinton is that she has won them over, and that they think that she's the smartest and most experienced Democratic candidate. But they worry she won't get many cross-over votes from Republicans. Even if Iowans "like" her, they worry she can't win the presidency.

December 17, 2007

Huckabee Calls Attacks On His Record "Poisonous"

Mike Huckabee had a brief news conference with reporters in Los Angeles today. He's there to raise money and for an appearance on the Larry King show. So he decided to " ... give you guys (meaning reporters) a few minutes to have at me... I'll probably deeply regret it, but that's part of the game we play these days."

In response to the claims that Mitt Romney's made in recent mailers and TV ads that Huckabee's soft on crime, the former Arkansas Governor said: "I did something he (Romney) never had to do. I carried out the death penalty 16 times, more than any governor in my state's history."

"Every time Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson attacks me, my feeling is we're a week away from Christmas and I think the country could use a little good will and peace on Earth more than they can [use] some tit for tat in the political arena, " Huckabee said. That's a point he makes in his new