NPR: Could Democratic Result in Iowa Affect GOP in N.H.?

Could Democratic Result in Iowa Affect GOP in N.H.?

Here's an interesting question that's been posed by some following the candidates in the early states: could the Democratic result in Iowa determine who the Republican winner is in New Hampshire?

How could such a scenario work? Well, it has a lot to do with the way independents vote in New Hampshire.

For instance, if Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama doesn't win or do well in Iowa's caucuses a week from today, than many independents who had been planning to vote for him in New Hampshire might have a change of heart. If it doesn't look like he could win the Democratic nomination, and they don't want to vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton, they could decide to go for another favorite with independents - Republican Sen. John McCain. (Independents can vote in either party's primary in New Hampshire.) They could give him enough of a lift to pull an upset over longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney.

If Obama does do well in Iowa, however, those independents could stay with him and that could hurt McCain's chances.

NPR's Ina Jaffe, who is in Iowa, says don't rule out the possibility of this happening. "Right now the whole thing is up for grabs," she says. "Anything seems possible."

10:38 AM ET | 12-27-2007 | permalink

Comments

So McCain might win NH... again. He won it in 2000, and look at all the difference that made. The GOP nominee, then as now, will be decided in South Carolina.

Sent by Nick | 2:45 PM ET | 12-27-2007

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