NPR: Giulinai Rolls Dice With Feb. 5 Strategy

Giulinai Rolls Dice With Feb. 5 Strategy

The polls are showing that Rudy Giuliani's campaign is in trouble.

Recent surveys from CBS News, the American Research Group and CNN all show that Giuliani's once formidable national lead over his rivals has almost disappeared. All of these above polls show Iowa frontrunner Mike Huckabee only a percent point or two behind him, or in a tie.

Giuliani has not made much of an effort in either Iowa or New Hampshire, and over the weekend there were reports that he was cutting back on his ad buys in the Granite State. His strategy has always been to ignore the early voting states and concentrate on big states like California, New Jersey and New York on Feb. 5. As NPR's Ina Jaffe reported on the blog on Saturday, Giuliani gave a major speech in Tampa on Saturday as part of that effort.

But now some campaign observers are wondering if perhaps he made a mistake not campaigning more aggressively in the early states. People love winners, they point out, and if Huckabee wins Iowa and South Carolina, and does well in New Hampshire, and Giuliani is down in the pack in all three, then Huckabee will go into the Feb. 5 states with a "winners" aura.

That's why Florida on Jan. 29th has taken on special importance for Giuliani. Polls show him with a 13-point lead, although Huckabee is gaining there as well. The Giuliani campaign people, who have repeatedly said they are not worried despite what the polls are saying, are counting on a win there to him return some of the luster to the former New York mayor's campaign.

1:57 PM ET | 12-18-2007 | permalink

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