New Poll Shows Some Developing Trends in Iowa

A new poll from The Des Moines Register of potential caucus-goers in Iowa shows Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (with 28 percent) leading the Democratic candidates and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (with 29 percent) leading the Republicans.

But the poll's sample size is 500 people from each party, giving it a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. That means Sen. Hillary Clinton (25 percent) or former Sen. John Edwards (23 percent) could be leading on the Democratic side or that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (24 percent) could be on top for the GOP.

Still, we're a month away from the actual vote. And NPR political editor Ken Rudin pointed out Sunday night on All Things Considered that at this point in 2004, Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt were leading the Democrats in the polls. John Kerry and John Edwards, who eventually finished first and second, were in single digits. As Ken said, a lot can change in a month.

Ron Elving, NPR's senior Washington editor, also sent me some thoughts about what the poll means:

The specific party sampling here (500) is not large ... nonetheless, these numbers in both parties confirm trends noted by other polling and generally corroborated by the mood on the ground.
1) Obama is gaining some momentum, ever since the [Jefferson Jackson] dinner in November.
2) Edwards' support is still holding, but could come under pressure if this becomes more a two-horse race and a majority of Edwards backers prefer Obama to Clinton.
3) Huckabee is clearly on the move here and his ads have become much more visible on TV — this DMR poll has him up 17 points since the summer — most of it in the last month.
4) Romney, by contrast, seems momentarily at least in a defensive crouch, lashing out at Huckabee now.
All these points are part of the conventional wisdom already among the throng of reporters covering events here over the weekend.

10:47 AM ET | 12- 3-2007 | permalink