Outcomes Hard to Predict in Iowa
As the last few days dribble away before the Iowa caucuses, it's pretty much agreed that no one can confidently predict what going to happen a week from tomorrow night. Oh, there are polls ... lots of them. And while they show some people have slipped and others have surged, all the major candidates remain within striking distance of each other.
For instance, an American Research Group poll a week ago (600 likely Democrats surveyed, error of +/- 4 percent) showed Clinton at 29 percent and Obama at 24 percent. But a Christmas Eve poll showed Clinton with 34 percent and Obama back down at 19 percent. (Edwards polls 20 percent.)
On the other hand, a Strategic Vision poll (600 likely Democratic voters), taken only a couple of days before the ARG one, shows Obama with 30 percent and Clinton and Edwards with 27 each. And in the same period, CNN had it 30 percent for Clinton, 28 for Obama, and 26 for Edwards.
On the Republican side, Dick Bennett, president of the American Research Group, laughs and says "Take eight cards and toss them up in the air." He says there are "very few, very strong" supporters of any of the leading candidates. In the latest ARG poll, Mike Huckabee has come back towards the pack, slipping from 28 percent to 23 percent. And Bennett says Iowan Republicans are telling ARG interviewers who they'll vote for .. and then why they don't like that candidate. "I've never seen anything like it before," he says.
Again, showing the wide difference in these polls, Strategic Vision had Huckabee with 31 percent. Huckabee was doing even better in the CNN survey, racking up 33 percent.
As Ina Jaffe noted in an earlier blog today, the candidates themselves are madly dashing around the state these last few days, trying to convince late-deciders to jump on their bandwagons. But you can bet the real push this week, especially behind the photo ops, is to make sure they can get their know-supporters lined up and ready to go to the caucus meetings next Thursday.
But getting supporters lined up too early can hurt too. Bennett points out that in 1992 in New Hampshire, George H.W. Bush identified supporters early. But many of them changed their minds and went to Pat Buchanan. So Bush ended up bringing many of his opponents' supporters to the polls.
4:30 PM ET | 12-26-2007 | permalink
