Record Caucus Turnout Expected This Year in Iowa
"It's been an incredible caucus season ... we anticipate a record turn out, lots of first time caucus goers."
That's the take of Mary Sharp, editor of the Cedar Rapids Gazette in Iowa. Sharp and Bret Hayworth, political editor at the Sioux City Journal told Robert Siegel on All Things Considered that they've seen few Iowa caucuses like the one this year. Hayworth, who comes from a part of the state that largely votes Republican, says the top three Democrats are drawing the big crowds this year in his area, which is unusual - although Mike Huckabee is also doing well. Sharp, who comes from a more pro-Democrat part of Iowa, says she's hearing all kinds of reason why people are voting for the candidates.
"The differences between people in the same party aren't that great," she says. "So people starting talking about personality, or warmth, or the potential for change. You hear that a lot .. and electability is being talked about a lot ... "
And both Sharp and Hayworth say trying to judge the outcome of this race by the polls can be a big mistake - lots of surprises can still happen.
Sharp, for instance, notes that first time caucus goers may not even be registered voters, and so may not be included by some pollsters. Independents can also change registration night of the caucuses. And for the Democrats, there is the whole issue of viability.
Under the Democratic Party caucus system in Iowa, a candidate must first be determined to be viable. If he or she isn't preferred by 15 percent of the attendees at that precinct, they are determined to be not viable, and their supporters can back other candidates during the rest of the session. That means being the second choice on many caucus-goers' list is important. Sharp says the Edwards people, who have been through this process before in 2004, have worked that angle "pretty well."
Hayworth sees turn out as the key factor for the Republicans, who use a straight "vote for your favorite candidate" system. He notes, for instance, that the caucuses are up against the Orange Bowl football game (Iowa is a football crazy state). The game, the weather, or indifference can kill a candidate's chances if it means his supporters decide to stay home. "It's all about turnout," says Hayworth.
8:36 AM ET | 12-27-2007 | permalink
