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January 31, 2008

Conservatives Take Another Swipe at McCain

John McCain is the Republican front runner. And many conservatives are not too happy about it.

Columnist Robert Novak writes that there was much talk among conservatives in the days before the Florida primary about comments that McCain reportedly made disparaging Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito for being too conservative (McCain says he doesn't recall making any such remarks) and other comments he made about not necessary blocking a tax increase if he was president.

"McCain as the Republican nominee would need those 'very conservative' voters," writes Novak. "He will encounter some of them at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington Feb. 7-9. His campaign Wednesday asked for McCain to speak there after rejecting an invitation to last year's meeting. At CPAC, he might well consider providing "straight talk" about Samuel Alito and promising to veto any tax increase by a Democratic Congress."

Talk-show host and columnist Hugh Hewitt has been a consistent critic of McCain and has written "I cannot understand any serious conservative supporting Senator McCain's candidacy," saying McCain that the candidate is running as "an anticonservative."

The Wall Street Journal notes that conservative talk-show host and author Michael Graham blogged after the Florida Republican primary, ""So it is over. Finished. In November, we'll be sending out our most liberal, least trustworthy candidate."

But the Journal says McCain is a lot more conservative than some give him credit for being. And as Sen. Lindsey Graham, a longtime friend and supporter of McCain notes, ""There's a level of practicality among Republicans I haven't seen in a long time, a focus on winning I haven't seen in a long time."

And as the paper notes "he is the candidate many Democrats least want to face, the one who would best remake his party's battered image and draw independent voters needed to win in November" despite his problems with conservatives in his own party.

Obama Ranked Most Liberal Senator in 2007

It may or may not be a trophy that he wants to pick up right now.

The National Journal is out with its 27th Annual vote ratings and it ranked Sen. Barack Obama as the most liberal Senator in the entire Senate. (His first year he was 16th, and last year he was 10th.) But he wasn't alone in his shift to the left. Sen. Hillary Clinton was 16th herself in 2007 after being 32nd in 2006.

And there really wasn't much room between them. The Journal notes of the 267 measures on which both senators cast votes in 2007, the two differed on only 10.

The ranking can sometimes be used as a weapon by opponents. In 2004 Republicans used Sen. John Kerry's liberal rankings against him. And some Republicans are attacking Obama now for being too liberal.

At a January 16 Republican National Committee meeting, Karl Rove, President Bush's former campaign architect, called Obama "a straight-down-the-line United States Senate national Democrat." Rove pointedly added: "Nonpartisan ratings say that he has a more liberal and a more straight-party voting record than Senator Clinton does. Pretty hard to do."

But the liberal ranking also comes after a prominent British magazine labeled Obama the ideal "conservative" candidate for America, and after several prominent conservative pundits have tossed bouquets his way.

The Governator Announces His Support for McCain

It was a sunny day for John McCain in California.

He toured a factory in Los Angeles that makes solar panels, then enjoyed some of the reflected star power of Arnold Schwarzenegger. The California Governor endorsed McCain five days before his state's primary. That's the biggest of more than 20 nominating contests on Super Tuesday.

"He's a great American hero and an extraordinary leader," Schwarzenegger said.

The governor praised McCain for his efforts to promote alternative energy and combat global warming. "He's a crusader. He has a great vision in protecting the environment and also protecting simultaneously the economy," Schwarzenegger said.

Schwarzenegger said he had remained neutral in the GOP presidential race until now to avoid choosing between two friends, McCain and Rudy Giuliani. The former New York Mayor dropped out of the race Wednesday and threw his support to McCain, clearing the way for Schwarzenegger's endorsement. "It's all Rudy's fault," the governor quipped.

Given his appeal to political independents, Schwarzenegger's endorsement may be more valuable in the general election than the primary, which is open only to registered Republicans. McCain still faces stiff competition among more conservative Republicans from former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

-- Scott Horsley

3:32 PM ET | 01-31-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Obama Raises $32 Million in January

Now that is a hunk of change. The Barack Obama campaign confirmed today that it raised $32 million in the month of January alone.

The Associated Press reports that Obama is advertising in all but two of the Feb. 5 states and plans to begin advertising in states with upcoming contests, including Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine, Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. - which means that he believes that there will still be a very tight battle with Hillary Clinton taking place after Super Tuesday.

And there's another reason that he's spending it quickly on advertising. NPR's Peter Oversby says it's almost all money for the primaries and can't be spent in the general election. Peter also pointed out that neither Obama or his rival Hillary Clinton has filed their year end report for 2007, which must be done by midnight tonight.

"We think that the strength of our financial position and the number of donors does speak to financial sustainability if it ends up going through March and April," campaign manager David Plouffe said of the race. "We think we will have the financial resources to conduct vigorous campaigns in the states to come."

The campaign attracted 170,000 new donors last month, for a total of 650,000 over all ...

Another fundraising facts: As Peter also noted yesterday, John McCain was in the red when he won the New Hampshire primary. In his report filed Wednesday, it shows he ended the ended the year with only $2.95 million cash on hand, and $4.52 million in debts

2:23 PM ET | 01-31-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Is the Media Ignoring Ron Paul?

If you've been by the blog anytime we do a posting about Republican Texas Rep. Ron Paul, you know that there is almost always a flurry of comments that follow it. Many of these posts castigate the media for willfully ignoring his campaign, often accusing them of conspiring to keep the truth of the "Ron Paul revolution" from Americans.

Well, it's probably true that the media doesn't pay as much attention to Paul as it should, but there's not much evidence of a conspiracy to do so, says NPR Ombudsman Lisa Shepard in her recent column on the subject.

This note from Corey Salomon of San Antonio, Texas is typical of the kind often posted here in the blog in response to a piece about Paul.

"I'm 22 now and I am very ashamed of the way NPR has handled the coverage of this year's presidential election," said Salomon in an email. "A second place finish for the Republican nomination in Nevada should be enough for you to see that Dr. Paul is a very viable candidate that is worthy of as much coverage as you have given to the other candidates."

Experts disagree on the coverage of Paul. Kathleen Hall Jamieson, who teaches in the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania, said after the Iowa caucuses that it was an "injustice" for the media not to give more coverage to Paul. But Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia was more skeptical of the Paul supporters' claims.

"Yes, Paul has raised lots of money and has many dedicated supporters," he said. "That's all good, but even Ron Paul realizes he is not going to be the GOP presidential nominee. There is a happy golden mean of major and minor candidates somewhere. No one ever finds it's to everyone's satisfaction. The good news is that news organizations don't conspire."

NPR senior Washington editor Ron Elving says that it's likely Paul will get a lot more media attention when he is no longer only polling in the single-digits in most of the Republican caucuses and primaries "When and if he becomes an independent or third party candidate," said Elving, "he may become a far larger factor in the eventual general election outcome. At that point, news coverage will increase appropriately."

Evangelical Christians Adrift Without Candidate

Evangelical Christians are a bit like a ship without a port this election cycle. Unlike 2004, when they definitely saw President Bush as "their guy," the choice is not quite so clear this time. Mark Rozell, professor of public policy at George Mason University, told Renee Montagne on Morning Edition that the largely conservative group of voters (which comprise between 13 and 19 percent of the population) like Mike Huckabee, but know now that he won't win the Republican nomination.

That leave Mitt Romney, who has made some in-roads among evangelicals although many still don't like his Mormon religion, and John McCain, who has a long history of animosity with the religious-right, although he has tried to patch that relationship in recent years with mixed results.

Rozell says that means the religious right might not turn-out in the numbers they have in past elections to support a Republican candidate. The one thing that would probably bring them out in huge numbers?: The idea of Sen. Hillary Clinton being president. The group's animosity towards the Clinton's is so strong, stopping her from being elected would be the one thing that would drive them to the polls.

Farmers Angry Bush Left Farm Bill Out of Speech

Let's see ... economy .. check. The success of the surge ... check. Renewing No Child Left Behind ... check. Nasty Iranian rulers ... check. Shot at Bill Clinton's remark about his willingness to pay more taxes ... check.

President Bush's checklist-like State of the Union speech covered a lot of important ground. But it seems like there was something missing, something really big ...

Oh yea, the farm bill.

No where in his speech did the president mention the multibillion-dollar measure now pending in Congress. In fact, he never mentioned "rural" once, and the only time he talked about agriculture was in the context of overseas producers. And as Politico reports, the U.S. agricultural community is not happy about being left out.

"Rural Americans are the genuine forgotten people, and you have just underscored that," William Greener, a longtime Republican political consultant who has focused on rural voting patterns, told Politico.

"As someone who has a passion for rural America, I certainly wish the president had given it more attention. And I would advise my fellow Republicans: to take any voter group, most especially rural Americans, for granted is at our own peril. It's not a good idea."

While the Bush administration may have stayed away from mentioning the expensive bill at a time when the president wants to reestablish credentials as a budget-hawk, it provides an opening for Democrats - for instance, as we mentioned yesterday, Sen. Barack Obama is campaign aggressively in normally red-state Kansas.

Candidates Clash at California GOP Debate

And then there were four.

Republicans Mitt Romney, John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul held their last debate before Super Tuesday next week, and they clashed over Iraq, the economy, global warming and campaign tactics. (Rudy Giuliani had dropped out of the race earlier in the day and had endorsed McCain.) The two front runners, McCain and Romney in particular exchanged harsh words.

As NPR's Mara Liasson reports, Romney went after McCain right away. He said that McCain is a good Republican but he wasn't a "real" conservative, helping to author the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform bill, that he opposed the Bush tax cuts and that he co-authored the McCain-Kennedy Bill on immigration reform that infuriated many conservatives. And, of course, he was endorsed by The New York Times.

McCain defended his conservative principles and had a quick comeback about the Times endorsement. He pointed out that "your two hometown newspapers who know you best" had also endorsed McCain, including the very conservative Boston Herald.

The other candidates tried to get a word in edgewise. Huckabee reminded the audience it wasn't a two-man contest, and that when it came to conservative credentials, he could hold his own. Ron Paul argued passionately against the war in Iraq, pointing out again that Iraq was not a threat to our national security when it was invaded and that it is basically an illegal war because Congress had not voted to go to war there.

McCain is expected to receive another important endorsement Thursday. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California is expected to offer his support at an event in Los Angeles.

8:00 AM ET | 01-31-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

January 30, 2008

Barack Obama Goes After Kansas

This is an interesting, and kind of unexpected story - Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in the state of Kansas.

Kansas, as you may know, has a reputation as a red-state. But the state's largely conservative-leaning reputation hasn't slowed down the Obama campaign. He actually has the biggest operation in the state, Democratic or Republican.

KCUR's Frank Morris visited the state for Day to Day and found a number of Obama fans discussing their political leanings a bit like its an addiction.

Ogonowski Wants to Challenge Kerry for Senate Seat

Jim Ogonowski, the Republican farmer and retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who gave Niki Tsongas (the widow of Paul Tsongas) such a tough battle for a Massachusetts Congressional seat last year, says he's going to run for the Republican nomination to battle Sen. John Kerry. Kerry has been in office since 1985.

The Boston Herald reports that Ogonowski, the brother of the pilot of an American Airlines flight that was hijacked and crashed into the World Trade Center in New York on Sept. 11, 2001, says he will fight illegal immigration, reduce US military presence in Iraq, and wean the nation off oil imports. He will also strive to return government to the people and stand up to special interest groups and Washington insiders.

"With the lowest approval ratings in history, it is clear that Washington is broken and the people of Massachusetts are demanding a new voice that will fight for their interests. No one represents the status quo, business as usual mentality in Washington, more than John Kerry," said Ogonowski, 50, in a statement.

But Kerry's office shot back immediately with a statement saying that he has always fought for change and will continue to do so when he is re-elected.

Ogonowski joins Jeff Beatty, a military veteran who ran unsuccessfully in 2006 against US Representative William Delahunt, in the hunt for the GOP nomination.

"Belvis, the Black Elvis" is a Big Fan of Hillary Clinton

LITTLE ROCK - Hillary Clinton didn't expect to meet Elvis at the Kitchen Express in Little Rock.

But as she was beginning to greet supporters at the restaurant this morning, she whirled around to find him.

"Woah," the former Arkansas first lady said. "The king has arrived."

Sort of.

Dwayne Turner introduced himself as "Belvis, the Black Elvis." He was playing the part in a white jumpsuit with gold and red jewels.

"That is some suit," Clinton said. And then Belvis burst into song.

"One for the money two for the show, three to get ready, go go Hillary, go!"

Turner's full-time job is as a cook at another restaurant. But he says he performs Elvis songs around the city, often for patients in nursing homes.

Arkansas is one of the 22 states holding Democratic nominating contests Tuesday. Clinton is hoping her years as First Lady here won her affection that still remains.

For Turner, it's an affection for Bill Clinton that drew him to Senator Clinton.

He says he was 12 years old in the early 80s, and liked to play hide-and-seek at the state capitol, where he met then-Gov. Bill Clinton.

"Everybody say, why don't you support Barack Obama?" Turner said. "I don't know him. It's like if you was my friend, and you was there for me when I needed you, I'm gonna support you."

Turner said he hopes this wasn't the last time he gets to see Hillary Clinton.

"When she gets elected, Belvis needs to perform at the inauguration."

In fact, he wasn't done performing at the Kitchen Express. He went at it again as Clinton was finishing her visit.

"Don't let them give you the blues," Belvis belted out. "You can do anything. But don't step on her --"

...And he paused to let the senator finish.

"Black suede shoes!" Clinton said with a smile.

-- David Greene

12:52 PM ET | 01-30-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Why Florida Has Some Bad News for Barack Obama

It was a primary that didn't really mean anything. That's because the Democratic National Committee had stripped Florida of its delegates for moving the primary up before Super Tuesday. But 1.7 million Democrats still voted Tuesday and there are signs in Hillary Clinton's victory here that point to possible trouble ahead for her main rival, Senator Barack Obama.

Clinton's 17-point victory in Florida (50 to 33 percent) came as a result of the strong backing of women, Latinos and seniors - the first two groups are key voting blocs in the big prize next Tuesday, California. Women, for instance, made up 60 percent of the Democrat voters in Florida and Clinton dominated this group, with 55 percent, compared to 29 percent for Obama. While none of these Democratic primaries and caucuses are winner-take-all-delegate states, Clinton could do well in these states if these two constituencies continue to strongly support her.

Obama once again dominated the African-American demographic taking about 70 percent to Clinton's 27 percent. But African-Americans comprised only 18 percent of those voting, as opposed to almost half in South Carolina.

In California, according to the 2006 census, Hispanics/Latinos are 35.9 percent of the state's population, while African-Americans are about 6.7 percent. (This why the endorsement of former candidate New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the Democratic Party's highest ranking official of Hispanic origin, has been so aggressively sought.)

The one-factor that could help Obama in California is his support among those 30 and under. This group makes up only 10 percent of the population of Florida, while seniors (another big Clinton group) comprise 60 percent. In California the gap between the two groups won't be as large, which should help Obama.

AP: John Edwards Drops Presidential Bid

The Associated Press is reporting that former Senator John Edwards will end his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination today.

Edwards is expected to formally announce his withdrawal at 1 p.m. EST in New Orleans. His decision leaves Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama in the running for the Democrats. At this point in time, Edwards will apparently not endorse either of the two remaining candidates.

Report: Rudy Giuliani Will Drop Presidential Bid

After a disappointing third place finish in Florida primary, NPR's Robert Smith reports that Rudy Giuliani - the one-time national front runner for the GOP presidential nomination - will end his campaign and endorse Sen. John McCain. The endorsement could come perhaps as early as today in California.

Giuliani had built his campaign around a big victory in Florida. He has stayed away from many of the early caucuses and primaries, or made token appearances, in order to focus on the big states that go to the polls on Super Tuesday - like New York, New Jersey and California. But that strategy also depended on winning Florida the week before.

Three months ago, Giuliani was so sure of victory in the Sunshine State that his campaign manager told The New York Times that it was "locked up" and he could go and campaign elsewhere.

The Boston Globe reports that Giuliani appeared last night in front of about 200 supporters. While he didn't say he was leaving the campaign trail, he did talk about it in the past tense.

"I'm proud that we chose to stay positive and run a campaign of ideas," he said. "We ran a campaign that was uplifting," in keeping with what he said was a desire of Americans for "a return to honesty and substance in our political discourse."

January 29, 2008

McCain Wins Florida Primary

In a close contest, Sen. John McCain has won the Florida Republican primary. NPR and other news organizations called the election for McCain in the past few minutes.

With more than 60 percent of the polls reporting, McCain has 36 percent of the vote to former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney's 31 percent. The victory is an important one for McCain, who also won the South Carolina and New Hampshire primaries. It puts him in position to win big next week on Super Tuesday when 21 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is in third place with 15 percent, followed closely by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 13. Texas Rep. Ron Paul was a distant fifth with 3 percent.

The poor result may end Giuliani's campaign. He hinted Monday that if he lost, he might not continue. Time magazine reported that Giuliani has been negotiating with McCain and will endorse him as early as Wednesday in California.

9:27 PM ET | 01-29-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Hillary Clinton Wins Florida Handily

NPR has called the Florida Democratic primary for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. She currently has 49 percent of the vote. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is in second with 30 percent.

There are no delegates at stake currently. The Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of its delegates when it moved its primary to January. None of the candidates campaigned in Florida. Sen. Clinton has said she will fight to get the delegates eventually seated at the convention.

McCain and Romney in Very Tight Battle

It doesn't get much closer than this.

With a third of the polls reporting, Sen. John McCain is leading former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney 34 percent to 33 percent (or about 14,000 votes out of around nearly a million votes cast so far. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is in a distance third place at 15 place.

The winner will gain all 57 national convention delegates at stake, the biggest prize so far in the early round of primaries and caucuses.

8:20 PM ET | 01-29-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Half of Californians Will Vote Before Election Day

More than half of California's Super Tuesday votes will be mail-in ballots. That's an amazing number in a large state like California and it truly does mean that the outcome of this election may have already been decided - we just haven't counted the already cast ballots yet.

KQED reporter Tamara Keith spoke to some of those voters for Day to Day and asked them why so many of them opt not to go to the polls.

The Los Angeles Times reported earlier this month (the mail-in ballots went out on Jan. 8) on why these voters are so attractive to the candidates. "By harvesting permanent absentee voters, you're harvesting the most frequent and most likely voters," Stephen Weir, president of the state association of registrars, said of the campaigns' efforts to entice them.

Women Voters Will Determine the Next President

If there is one thing that Republicans and Democrats can agree on, it's that women voters will determine who will be the next president.

Rep. Kay Granger, a Republican from Texas, and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake talked to Morning Edition's Lynn Neary today about the women's vote, and it's a bit surprising how much they agree on.

Both told Neary that across the board, women care about the economy. They also comprise 80 percent of all "health care" voters. And they see job security - coming back to work after having children, for instance - as a major issue.

For women voters, stage of life is more important than age. Their different concerns are more based on what's happening in their lives: A 32-year-old single woman has different concerns than a 32-year-old mother of three or than a 32-year-old woman with children and ailing parents.

Lake said the one big difference between Democratic women and Republican women has been the war in Iraq. Democratic women have been opposed to the war for some time and were the first in the party to voice disapproval.

But there are also class and ethnic differences in Democratic women themselves that are reflected in their political choices. College-educated women favor Barack Obama. Women over 50 are much more aware of the historic nature of Hillary Clinton's challenge for the Oval Office because they are more aware of the glass ceiling than younger women.

Latino and Anglo women tend to favor Clinton, while African-American women support Obama.

And here is something else Granger and Lake agree on - women will stay undecided about their vote longer than men. And they won't base it on party line, but much more on the likability factor.

With California on the Line, Richardson Much Sought

It's one of the ironies of life that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is probably being courted more ferociously this week than anytime when he was actually running for president. That's because he is seen as a key to the Latino vote. And now that Sen. Ted Kennedy has thrown his support to Sen. Barack Obama, Richardson is one of the last prominent Democrats to endorse someone.

Richardson's endorsement is being eagerly sought because of Super Tuesday, when several large states with significant Latino populations (like California) will vote.

In a conversation with the Washington Post, Richardson admits he's torn. He served in the Clinton White House and likes Sen. Clinton. But he also regards Kennedy as a mentor, and his opinion about Sen. Barack Obama carries a lot of weight.

If he endorses anyone, it will come at the end of this week.

"If I do endorse, it's going to be a gut feeling. It's not going to be about statistics, about past ties," Richardson said. "I've been on the campaign trail with both of them. I feel that I know them. I feel I know the issues. I feel I know what makes them both tick."

Republicans Prepare for Important Florida Primary

Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were in Washington last night for President Bush's final State of the Union address. (Although Obama reportedly gave Clinton the cold shoulder.) But the other member of the Senate running for the presidency Sen. John McCain was in Florida, getting in one more day of campaigning in what is an extremely close race with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Several of the polls taken in the past few days have the race a tie, or with a slight two- or three-point lead for McCain, who seemed to get a small bump over the weekend after an endorsement from Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

But the real story of Florida may be the end of Rudy Giuliani's campaign. The former New York mayor had pinned all of his chances on winning this state after ignoring the early caucuses and primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina. After leading in pools for months, Giuliani is now looking at a third or fourth place finish.

Yesterday he seemed to hint that he knew the end was near. The New York Daily News reports that Giuliani hinted Monday that he could end his presidential bid as early as Wednesday if he loses Florida.

"When it's Wednesday morning, we will make a decision," he said when asked about what he would do if he loses. "The reality is that voting hasn't even started yet. I believe we are going to win."

He also declined to say if he would take part in a debate in California tomorrow.

National Right To Life Pulls a 180

The National Right To Life Committee, one of John McCain's most ardent foes in Washington and on the campaign trail, is dropping its opposition to him. Now it says it's "grateful" for McCain's "strong pro-life" record.

Yes, this is the same John McCain who's been trading insults and accusations with NRLC since the late 1990s, when he took up the cause of campaign finance reform. When he ran for president eight years ago, he called single-issue anti-abortion voters "otherwise intelligent people." When he pushed the McCain-Feingold bill through the Senate in 2001, the committee's lawyer called it a "pernicious attack" on grassroots organizations.

As the committee gained strength in Washington, it became a leader in opposing limits on political spending by outside groups -- groups like itself. Its state affiliates have frequently challenged, and often won, court challenges to McCain-Feingold and other campaign finance laws.

NRLC endorsed Fred Thompson for president last fall. Hadn't he co-sponsored McCain-Feingold? Not a problem, the committee said, reminding its members that McCain backed embryonic stem-cell research.

So when McCain won the South Carolina primary last week and Thompson dropped out, the committee had to readjust.

Monday it urged anti-abortion voters "to do what is necessary" to elect a president who opposes abortion rights. NRLC endorses no candidate specifically, but praises all of them -- except Rudolph Giuliani. He hasn't changed his pro-choice stance, and the Right To Life Committee hasn't changed its opposition to him.

-- Peter Overby

8:00 AM ET | 01-29-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

January 28, 2008

Bloggers React to the State of the Union

Among bloggers, the overall reaction so far to President Bush's final State of the Union address appears to be that it gets a passing grade but was nothing special. Many described it as a conciliatory speech, especially considering that he will need to work with a Democratic Congress to achieve many of the goals of his last year in office.

Ed Morrissey of the conservative Captain's Quarters wrote:

"It didn't move me much. He had his moments; his slam on earmarks was much appreciated, even if he didn't take the action we wanted. It's a huge improvement over where we were at just two years ago on the subject. His promise to veto any new taxes also satisfied me. The recitation of the success in Iraq was, I thought, particularly effective. However, most of the rest of the speech seemed boilerplate and rote, and not particularly well delivered. Bush has been a mostly mediocre speaker, with a couple of moments in his terms where he seemed moved to eloquence. We know he can reach those heights when circumstances demand it, but otherwise he just sounds either diffident or annoyed."

Matt Lewis at Townhall.com writes that many conservatives aren't sure what to think of the speech and of the president himself:

"President Bush did [acknowledge] problems in the economy, including a housing crisis. My guess is that he fears being seen as out-of-touch, the way his father was in 1991, when a recession hit and probably cost him re-election. While most conservatives are less than thrilled over the currently proposed stimulus package, most conservatives will applaud his call to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. The real question is whether or not this is simply rhetoric -- or if he's willing to fight for them."

Even A.J. Rossmiller of the liberal AMERICAblog couldn't get very worked up:

"Look ma, no legacy! As far as I can tell, the big goals for this year are (1) reducing earmarks, and (2) scaring people. On the one hand, it's not very ambitious. On the other, he might actually be able to handle those goals. But none of our big problems will be helped. 2009 can't come soon enough."

Just a note: Please continue to post your comments. If we miss any tonight, we'll post them first thing in the morning.

FactWatch: Extending the Bush Tax Cuts

From the speech:
"We have other work to do on taxes. Unless the Congress acts, most of the tax relief we have delivered over the past seven years will be taken away. Some in Washington argue that letting tax relief expire is not a tax increase. Try explaining that to 116 million American taxpayers who would see their taxes rise by an average of $1,800."

Analysis:
The president's use of averages is misleading and masks who actually benefits most from his tax cuts. The Citizens for Tax Justice estimate that the middle 20 percent of Americans will receive 11 percent of the Bush tax cuts between 2001 and 2010, while the top 1 percent will receive 36 percent. That means the middle 20 percent would lose about $540 a year in tax breaks if the Bush tax cuts are not renewed. The top 1 percent would lose an average of $34,000 a year.

- John Ydstie

FactWatch: The Economy

From the speech:
"As we meet tonight, our economy is undergoing a period of uncertainty. America has added jobs for a record 52 straight months, but jobs are now growing at a slower pace. Wages are up, but so are prices for food and gas. Exports are rising, but the housing market has declined. And at kitchen tables across our country, there is concern about our economic future."

Analysis:
President Bush acknowledged the economy faces difficulties, but glossed over the seriousness of the problem. Some economists believe the U.S. is already in recession. The situation in the housing market is especially difficult. Today, the Commerce Department reported a record drop in new home sales in 2007 — they fell more than 26 percent. As a result of the bursting of the housing bubble, millions of Americans face foreclosure and could lose their homes. The troubles in the U.S. housing market have spread to the rest of the world through complicated securities that included subprime U.S. mortgages. There is fear that ultimately the global economy could fall into recession.

- John Ydstie

FactWatch: Intelligence Surveillance

From the speech:
"One of the most important tools we can give them is the ability to monitor terrorist communications. To protect America, we need to know who the terrorists are talking to, what they are saying, and what they are planning. Last year, the Congress passed legislation to help us do that. Unfortunately, the Congress set the legislation to expire on Feb. 1. This means that if you do not act by Friday, our ability to track terrorist threats would be weakened and our citizens will be in greater danger. The Congress must ensure the flow of vital intelligence is not disrupted. The Congress must pass liability protection for companies believed to have assisted in the efforts to defend America. We have had ample time for debate. The time to act is now."

Analysis:
The Protect America Act, passed by Congress last August, expires on Feb. 1. That legislation expanded powers available to the administration under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978, especially with respect to the monitoring of electronic communication (e-mails, for example) between suspected terrorists who are outside the United States but whose communications pass through switching networks in U.S. territory. Under existing legislation, the attorney general has to certify that the surveillance meets the legal conditions. Those certifications will not expire on Feb. 1. There will be no disruption of current monitoring. The wiretapping can continue regardless of what Congress does. It is true, however, that the executive branch will not be able to make new certifications and therefore open new surveillance cases.

- Tom Gjelten

FactWatch: Iran

From the speech:
"Our message to the people of Iran is clear: We have no quarrel with you, we respect your traditions and your history, and we look forward to the day when you have your freedom. Our message to the leaders of Iran is also clear: Verifiably suspend your nuclear enrichment, so negotiations can begin. And to rejoin the community of nations, come clean about your nuclear intentions and past actions, stop your oppression at home and cease your support for terror abroad. But above all, know this: America will confront those who threaten our troops, we will stand by our allies and we will defend our vital interests in the Persian Gulf."

Analysis:
President Bush, who in a previous State of the Union address labeled Iran as part of an axis of evil, has adopted the language of United Nations Security Council resolutions, saying negotiations can begin once Iran verifiably suspends nuclear enrichment. The Bush administration is in the midst of difficult diplomatic negotiations on another sanctions resolution at the U.N., hoping to build up pressure on Iran. However, news that the U.S. intelligence community believes that Iran suspended a nuclear weapons program back in 2003 has made the sanctions debate more complicated, according to diplomats.

- Michele Kelemen

FactWatch: Middle East

From the speech:
"We are also standing against the forces of extremism in the Holy Land, where we have new cause for hope. Palestinians have elected a president who recognizes that confronting terror is essential to achieving a state where his people can live in dignity and at peace with Israel. Israelis have leaders who recognize that a peaceful, democratic Palestinian state will be a source of lasting security. This month in Ramallah and Jerusalem, I assured leaders from both sides that America will do, and I will do, everything we can to help them achieve a peace agreement that defines a Palestinian state by the end of this year. The time has come for a Holy Land where a democratic Israel and a democratic Palestine live side-by-side in peace."

Analysis:
In addition to the many troubling questions in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, a new one has emerged, one President Bush has not addressed. Hamas, which doesn't recognize Israel, controls Gaza, and in response to Hamas rocket attacks, Israel has tried to seal off the region. Now, the U.S. is hoping forces loyal to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas can help, but Abbas has little, if any, control over Gaza and his Security Forces are still weak. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said that there can be no peace without Gaza as part of the package.

- Michele Kelemen

Fact Watch: Iraq

From the speech:
"In Iraq, the terrorists and extremists are fighting to deny a proud people their liberty and to establish safe havens for attacks across the world."

Analysis:
True. But al-Qaida is just one problem in Iraq. So, too, is the sectarian division -- another serious problem. The National Police, for example, are rife with Shiite death squad members and many commanders have had to be fired.

From the speech:
"And today this grassroots surge includes more than 80,000 Iraqi citizens who are fighting the terrorists."

Analysis:
True, but few of those so-called Concerned Local Citizens, who are essentially an armed neighborhood watch, are being absorbed into the Iraqi Security Forces. And the U.S. taxpayer is paying $300 per month for most of those citizens. The Shiite-dominated government doesn't trust them because most are Sunni and some were former insurgents. Now, the Americans are working on a plan to hire the bulk of those who aren't allowed into the security forces for public service jobs.

From the speech:
"Our objective in the coming year is to sustain and build on the gains we made in 2007 ... American troops are shifting from leading operations to partnering with Iraqi forces, and eventually to a protective overwatch mission."

Analysis:
The real question is, as American surge troops draw down, will the Iraqi forces be able to pick up the slack? Most of the gains in 2007 were the result of 30,000 more American troops. And as far as that shift, it will take many years. Maj. Gen. James Dubik, the top American trainer of Iraqi forces, told Congress that the Iraqi defense minister had estimated when the Iraqis could reach that "overwatch" phase where Americans would be in a supervisory role. The minister estimated that the Iraqis could take control of internal security sometime between 2009 and 2012, and external security sometime between 2018 and 2020.

From the speech:
"Progress in the provinces must be matched by progress in Baghdad."

Analysis:
That's the rub. There is reconciliation going on at the local level, but little at the national level in Baghdad. There is little movement on the "benchmarks" on political reconciliation that the president outlined last year.

From the speech:
"The national government is sharing oil revenues with the provinces."

Analysis:
True, but no oil law has been passed. A key sticking point? The Kurds in the north want more control over the oil in their area and are balking.

From the speech:
"The parliament recently passed both a pension law and de-Baathification reform."

Analysis:
The de-Baathification law passed was more restrictive than the one that the U.S. wanted. It may worsen sectarian problems by forcing out many Sunnis in the government, especially officials in the security forces. And there are concerns about how the law will be implemented by the Shiite-led government and how many pensions will be forthcoming for Sunnis.

From the speech:
"Now they are debating a provincial powers law."

Analysis:
And they have been debating it for more than two years. Sunnis want provincial elections so they can have a greater say in how they are governed. But the Shiite government is balking. Many in the Sunni enclave of Anbar Province have little trust in the government. One Marine general told NPR in the fall of 2006 that if provincial elections were not held in 2007, we will have "problems." President Bush last January said he expected the elections "later this year."

- Tom Bowman

FactWatch: Entitlement Reform

From the speech:
"Every member in this chamber knows that spending on entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is growing faster than we can afford. And we all know the painful choices ahead if America stays on this path: massive tax increases, sudden and drastic cuts in benefits, or crippling deficits."

Analysis:
What Bush didn't say is that he will soon have to propose another bill with painful choices. Under the terms of the 2003 law that created the Medicare prescription drug benefit, Bush must propose in the next three weeks a bill to bring Medicare spending that comes from general tax revenues (as opposed to the Medicare payroll tax) back down to 45 percent of total Medicare spending. And by law, those cuts can't come from increased taxes. That will mean some combination of cuts in benefits, payments to doctors and other providers of health care, and beneficiary premiums. Not likely to be popular in an election year. And also under the terms of that 2003 law, Congress will be required to debate (although not necessarily to pass) that legislation this year.

- Julie Rovner

9:50 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

FactWatch: The Surge in Iraq

From the speech:
"While the enemy is still dangerous and more work remains, the American and Iraqi surges have achieved results few of us could have imagined just one year ago."

Analysis:
True, the surge has achieved results. There is unquestionably better security throughout the country, although there are now dangerous pockets of insurgent activity around the northern city of Mosul. But the "enemy" the president refers to apparently means al-Qaida. He fails to mention the rampant sectarianism, including the Shiite militias who have worked their way into the security forces, particularly the National Police. That is a serious threat to reconciliation among Shiites and Sunnis. He talks of the Iraqi "surge," which includes both the Iraqi army and police, but fails to say that the National Police are both corrupt and undermanned. Many leaders have had to be replaced.

From the speech:
"Ladies and gentlemen, some may deny the surge is working, but among the terrorists there is no doubt. Al-Qaida is on the run in Iraq, and this enemy will be defeated."

Analysis:
There's no question that al-Qaida is on the run, heading into northern Iraq around the areas of Mosul or south of Baghdad into Arab Jabour. But the whole point of the surge was to create what administration officials called "breathing space" for reconciliation. And on that point there has been little progress.

- Tom Bowman

FactWatch: Freedom Agenda

From the speech:
"Our foreign policy is based on a clear premise: We trust that people, when given the chance, will choose a future of freedom and peace. In the last seven years, we have witnessed stirring moments in the history of liberty. We have seen citizens in Georgia and Ukraine stand up for their right to free and fair elections. We have seen people in Lebanon take to the streets to demand their independence. We have seen Afghans emerge from the tyranny of the Taliban to choose a new president and a new parliament. We have seen jubilant Iraqis holding up ink-stained fingers and celebrating their freedom. And these images of liberty have inspired us."

Analysis:
President Bush often talks about what he calls his "freedom agenda" in the Middle East, arguing the U.S. relied on a false stability in the region in the past. But the democracy agenda took a hit when Hamas, which the U.S. considers a terrorist organization, won elections in the Palestinian territories two years ago and when the Muslim Brotherhood made gains in elections in Egypt before that. The president never mentions those elections, though the U.S. had been encouraging both votes to take place. The president has also toned down his criticism of key Arab allies. When he met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah and other leaders during a recent swing through the Middle East, Bush did not openly criticize anyone's rule, but rather gently nudged for reforms and talked about the long term rather than the near term.

- Michele Kelemen

FactWatch: Climate Change

From the speech:
"Let us create a new international clean technology fund, which will help developing nations like India and China make greater use of clean energy sources. And let us complete an international agreement that has the potential to slow, stop and eventually reverse the growth of greenhouse gases. This agreement will be effective only if it includes commitments by every major economy and gives none a free ride."

Analysis:
The Bush administration has been discussing such a fund with Japan and the United Kingdom, to be used to help developing countries enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. Such a proposal, pegged at $2 billion, could face tough going in Congress, however, from members who insist that the larger "developing" countries be required to reduce their own emissions as part of any international climate agreement. The administration is sympathetic to that view, signaling so in the address tonight with the words that "This agreement will be effective only if it includes commitments by every major economy and gives none a free ride." Even if that much money can be raised, it amounts to 1 percent of what the United Nations has estimated to be necessary to develop the technology worldwide to hold warming to acceptable levels.

As for an international agreement to slow and reverse growth of greenhouse gases, the president has never supported the Kyoto Protocol, the only international agreement so far with specific limits and mechanisms for reducing warming — one that every industrialized nation except the U.S. has signed onto. The Bush administration began a parallel process last year, inviting major economies, including China and India, to Washington to talk about encouraging technological innovation to reduce warming. This "major economies" initiative is viewed by the rest of the industrialized world as a U.S. alternative to the Kyoto Protocol, and most are very skeptical. The second major economies meeting is scheduled for later this week in Hawaii, but so far the White House has indicated there won't be specific proposals laid on the table. Moreover, the target for any agreement to emerge from it is 2009 — after Bush leaves office.

- Christopher Joyce

9:28 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

FactWatch: Energy and Climate Change

From the speech:
"Last year, I asked you to pass legislation to reduce oil consumption over the next decade, and you responded. Together we should take the next steps. Let us fund new technologies that can generate coal power while capturing carbon emissions. Let us increase the use of renewable power and emissions-free nuclear power. Let us continue investing in advanced battery technology and renewable fuels to power the cars and trucks of the future."

Analysis
The legislation President Bush is talking about is the new energy law, passed last December. It probably did more for the climate than anything the White House has conferred its blessing to: it raised fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks for the first time in 32 years. It failed on other counts, such as extending tax breaks for wind and solar power, however. Clean coal has been a familiar favorite of this White House, since the U.S. is rich with coal reserves. The biggest item on this count is Futuregen, a project to build a model coal-fired electricity plant that captures climate-warming carbon dioxide. It's late, over budget and stalled by paperwork hurdles at the Environmental Protection Agency. As for renewable fuels, the White House has pressed hard every year to demand more biofuels, mostly from corn to make ethanol that replaces gas in cars. That policy has succeeded in getting more ethanol into pumps, but the increased demand has also raised the price of corn. President Bush has encouraged scientists to learn how to make ethanol from other feedstocks, like prairie grass. That technology is several years in the future.

- Christopher Joyce

FactWatch: Education Initiatives

From the speech:
"Now we must work together to increase accountability, add flexibility for states and districts, reduce the number of high school dropouts and provide extra help for struggling schools. Members of Congress: The No Child Left Behind Act is a bipartisan achievement. It is succeeding.

" ... I ask you to support a new $300 million program called Pell Grants for Kids. We have seen how Pell Grants help low-income college students realize their full potential. Together, we have expanded the size and reach of these grants. Now let's apply that same spirit to help liberate poor children trapped in failing public schools."

Analysis:
President Bush is proposing two education initiatives tonight that have two chances of being enacted — slim, and none. The president is asking once again for Congress to support a federal voucher program, proposing a $300 million program to help poor children in underperforming schools attend private or religious schools. The program has a new name, "Pell Grants for Kids," but it is likely to meet the same fate as other vouchers proposals: Democrats will shoot it down, arguing that vouchers take money away from public schools that are already starved for funds.

Ditto for the other proposal: reauthorizing No Child Left Behind. This initiative was one of the biggest successes of President Bush's first year in office, but last year, the president's efforts to reauthorize the program in its current form ran into a Democratic brick wall. Democratic leaders wanted to make substantial changes, and the administration refused to budge. This year is an election year, so it's even less likely that Congress will take up this controversial law. Most education watchers say nothing will happen until 2009.

- Larry Abramson

FactWatch: Health Insurance

From the speech:
"So I have proposed ending the bias in the tax code against those who do not get their health insurance through their employer. This one reform would put private coverage within reach for millions, and I call on the Congress to pass it this year."

Analysis:
Yes, but that will still put only a small dent in the number of uninsured in America. According to an analysis of the president's plan by the private Lewin Group, in 2009 the tax changes would have the number of uninsured by 9.2 million from a projected 48.4 million people. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the reduction in the uninsured at 6.8 million people. The changes might also require some people with generous employer-provided coverage to pay taxes on that insurance for the first time, a significant reason why Congress didn't want to take this proposal up last year when it was first offered.

- Julie Rovner

Fact-Checking the State of the Union 2008

We invite you to drop by our blog during President Bush's State of the Union speech, starting at 9 p.m. ET. NPR reporters and editors will be fact-checking the speech and posting their updates here. We hope you'll contribute your own comments.

Don Gonyea reported today on how Bush's State of the Union speeches have reflected his shifting focus during his presidency. Morning Edition also featured an interview with the two speechwriters who helped Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton write their final addresses.

The Giuliani Anti-Endorsement Gambit

Well, this is a different way to run for office.

There have been numerous media reports recently on how former New York Mayor Rudy Giuiani's campaign has slipped in the past few weeks. Once he led the polls in Florida, now he is third of fourth in most of them.

So the day before the primary, he's taking a different tack. He's talking about how many people haven't endorsed him - sort of as a badge of honor.

"Rudy Giuliani is not endorsed by The Tampa Tribune," the ad begins. "Not endorsed by the Orlando Sentinel. Not endorsed by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. In fact, he's not endorsed by any of the liberal newspapers. When you're responsible for cutting people's taxes by an incredible seventeen percent ..."

It then goes on to list a number of the accomplishments that Giuliani achieved while he was mayor.

And then it ends with:

"... you're the last person on earth to be endorsed by the liberal New York Times. Rudy Giuliani. Tested. Ready. Now."

Take that, John McCain!

January 26, 2008

Another Big Turnout for Democrats

Whether it was the closeness of the race or the energy that Democrats have shown in all the primaries and caucuses so far, the Democratic turnout in South Carolina this year was 200,000 more than it was in 2004.

When John Edwards won the state in 2004, just over 291,000 people voted in the Democratic primary. But Saturday night, more than 510,000 Democrats voted. In fact, the 136,000 votes that Hillary Clinton's received would have been more than enough to win in 2004 (Edwards received 131,000) - but it was only good enough for a distant second this year.

In the Republican primary, won by John McCain, 431,000 people voted, a drop of 140,000 from 2000 when 573,000 people participated.

Florida Governor Announces Support for McCain

In an important endorsement in a close campaign, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announced his support for Sen. John McCain.

"We have a lot of great people who are running for president this year who would all do well," Crist said at a dinner in Saint Petersburg, Florida with McCain.

"I don't think anybody would do better than the man who stands next to me, Sen. John McCain; that's an endorsement."

Florida's primary is this Tuesday, Jan. 29th.

Obama Scores Big Win in South Carolina

In a not unexpected victory - but one larger than expected - Sen. Barack Obama won the Democratic South Carolina primary tonight. With around 90 percent of the polls reporting, Obama had a 29-point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, 55 to 26 percent. Former Sen. John Edwards, who won the South Carolina primary in 2004, was in third place with around 20 percent of the vote.

The Associated Press reports that about half the voters were black, according to polling place interviews, and four out of five of them supported Obama. As predicted by many, black women (known as the beauty parlor moms) turned out in particularly large numbers. Obama, the first-term Illinois senator, got a quarter of the white vote while Clinton and Edwards split the rest.

Exit polls showed that the main reason people voted for Obama - around 53 percent - was that he would bring change. Only 6 percent voted for him because they considered electability in a general election as the most important factor.

January 25, 2008

Thompson Failed to Capitalize On Initial Media Interest

NPR's Audie Cornish followed former Tenn. Sen Fred Thompson during this past summer when he was still thinking about starting his run for the Republican presidential nomination - which he dropped this past week. She offers this analysis of why he wasn't able to capitalize on the initial surge of interest in his candidacy.

First, Thompson focused a lot on conservative blogs and radio, and some Fox News shows. It was very difficult to get him or through to that campaign in those first few weeks. After a certain amount of time Thompson's so-called "earned media" diminished - and he pretty much fell off the radar. The campaign sort of squandered the attention they had from the mainstream media at the start.

Second, Thompson did not defy the "lazy" label with his campaign schedule. While he made strong and hard pushes in the final week or two before Iowa and again in South Carolina, I would be very surprised if his schedule matched up to say a Mitt Romney or a John McCain - or any of the Democrats. Just a week before his announcement in September his campaign manager-to-be Bill Lacy told me this in an interview when I asked about the "lazy" thing.

He knows how important it is to prepare and be ready for big events. I think that preparation is important and that is going to involve - maybe I don't ask him to have a grinding schedule every day where he spends 18 or 20 hours out because frankly I'd much rather have him able to be deliver better performances.

By not putting in the trail time and making good use of initial media interest I think Thompson made it less likely he would be able to exploit potentially "big" debate performances that could have elevated him above the pack.

-- Audie Cornish

Who Was Whispering During GOP Debate?

As a famous commercial once advised, if you want to capture someone's attention, whisper.

At one point during last night NBC's debate in Boca Raton, Florida, NBC moderator Tim Russert noted that Mitt Romney was a fan of Ronald Reagan. Russert asked "Will you do for social security what Reagan did in 1983?"

Then you hear it. A voice off-camera whispers "He raised taxes." It's not clear if Romney heard the voice, but he immediately says, "I'm not going to raise taxes." The exchange has been making the rounds on YouTube today.

Raw Story says that MSNBC is blaming the whisper on a mike malfunction.

"We had some audio issues and Gov. Romney's mike wasn't working momentarily. Simple as that," MSNBC VP for Communications Jeremy Gaines said in a one-line e-mail response to questions about overheard whisper.

But Gaines didn't explain where the whisper came from, or who made it. Even more mysterious a piece about the whisper at the MSNBC site has apparently been removed.

Others have suggested that it was someone off-camera whispering to Russert to finish the question "that without the raising taxes component made no sense at all."

Romney's campaign has so far not respond to requests for comment.

Senior Dems to President Clinton: Back Off Bill

Former President Bill Clinton has been more than a little testy lately. His comments about Sen. Barack Obama, his wife's main rival for the Democratic nomination for president, ignited angry rebuttals from the Obama campaign, and raised questions about the issue of race in the contest. Twice he has gotten into angry exchanges with reporters, both times accusing the media of not paying attention to what the Obama campaign was really doing.

But now prominent Democrats are basically telling Clinton to shut up for a while, or to at least back off. Thursday USA Today reported that former South Dakota Senator, and Majority Leader, Tom Daschle (a strong Obama supporter it should be noted), said Bill Clinton's recent comments about Obama are "not presidential."

Jonathan Alter noted in Newsweek that both Sen. Ted Kennedy and Rep. Rahm Emmanuel, a former Clinton aide who helped orchestrate the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006, have recently both pressured Clinton "in heated phone calls" to dial down the rhetoric.

The Economist argues that allowing the former President to have such a high profile in his wife's campaign won't hurt so much against Obama, but will be damaging in the long run.

The more Mrs. Clinton relies on her husband, the more she undermines the most compelling arguments for her candidacy. Take the notion that she is a feminist pioneer. Mr Clinton's omnipresence not only reminds us that his wife made her political career by attaching herself to his coat-tails. Only a spouse could have survived the debacle of "Hillarycare." It also reminds voters that her first instinct when the going gets tough is to turn to her husband.

New York Times Endorsements Not Overwhelming

Covering the endorsement of the candidates can be like eating peanuts: once you start, it's hard to stop. But there are a few endorsements that deserve mention because of either the individual doing it (Sen. John Kerry, for instance, or former Vice President Al Gore, if he ever did one, or on the Republican side, a Karl Rove nod would deserve coverage) or a major institution or media organization. In this case, it's The New York Times giving their endorsements to Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Sen. John McCain on the Republican side.

There are several things worth noting about the endorsements.

First is the lukewarm nature of the endorsements. If you tried to use these endorsements to apply for a regular job, they might not help at all. After saying what a great guy and really good candidate Obama is, they give it to Clinton in what seems like a split decision, based on her experience in the Senate. "Mrs. Clinton," the editorial board writes, "is more qualified, right now, to be president." It's the "right now" that kind of hangs there.

It's not much better for the Republicans. The board liked McCain, but they see him as the best of a bad lot. After saying that none of the Republicans look promising, the board writes "Still, there is a choice to be made, and it is an easy one. Senator John McCain of Arizona is the only Republican who promises to end the George Bush style of governing from and on behalf of a small, angry fringe."

Second is the paper's decision to endorse one New Yorker - Clinton - and not the other - Giuliani. Not only does the paper refuse to endorse the former New York mayor, they give him a real whack. "Mr. Giuliani's arrogance and bad judgment are breathtaking," the editorial notes, "The Rudolph Giuliani of 2008 first shamelessly turned the horror of 9/11 into a lucrative business, with a secret client list, then exploited his city's and the country's nightmare to promote his presidential campaign."

Giuliani, for his part, said he never did anything the paper liked anyway, or else he would not have been a conservative Republican ... which is a not-so-subtle dig at McCain for being endorsed by a paper conservatives consider a bastion of liberalism.

Finally, the early date of the endorsements. Normally the Times doesn't make its picks until mid- or late-February. But the feeling is that the paper wanted to get them out in the public before next Tuesday's Florida primary and Super Tuesday on Feb. 5

Republicans Calmly Debate Economy, Attack Clinton

Considering how rough and tumble some of the previous encounters have been, last night's Republican debate in Boca Raton, Florida was downright peaceful. One almost expected tea and cucumber sandwiches to be served at some point, the candidates were so downright civil to each other.

The candidates talked about the economy, and why they felt the economic stimulus package created by Congress and the president needed to go farther (although Sen. John McCain said he would vote for the plan when it comes to the Senate). Rep. Ron Paul argued that "the government does have a responsibility, but it's supposed to lower taxes, get rid of regulations and devise a monetary policy that makes some sense."

The five Republican rivals spent part of the evening attacking Sen. Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton - almost nary a word was heard of Sen. Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards. Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, asked about running against the Clinton and her husband, replied "I frankly can't wait because the idea of Bill Clinton back in the White House with nothing to do is something I can't imagine,"

The most intriguing part of the evening was the blunt questions that Tim Russert and Brian Williams of NBC asked the candidates. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was asked about why his poll numbers are going south in a state where he has campaigned so consistently, to which he replied that he was like the New York Giants - no one expected them to win, but they did, and so would he. Romney was asked about The New York Times article Thursday that said his rival candidates have almost "visceral disdain" for him. Romney said he was going to Washington to fix the country's problems, not to make friends. McCain was quizzed about his own mother's statement that he lacked support from certain elements of the Republican Party. He said he had won New Hampshire and South Carolina, states with two very different kinds of Republicans. And, he added, he had the support of independents as well.

The next Republican primary is next Tuesday in Florida. The winner will receive 57 Republican National Convention delegates. It's the first winner-take-all contest in terms of delegates and the final primary before Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

January 24, 2008

Kucinich Quits Democratic Presidential Race

Rep. Dennis Kucinich told the Cleveland Plain Dealer today that he is dropping out of the Democratic presidential race. In an interview with Plain Dealer editors and reporters, Kucinich said he will explain his "transition" tomorrow.

"I want to continue to serve in Congress," he said. Kucinich said he would not endorse any other candidate.

Did Ronald Reagan "Win" Louisana GOP Caucus?

Although you may have totally missed it, Louisiana held its Republican presidential caucuses on Tuesday night. And a couple of days later, it's not quite clear who "won." One report has it that Sen. John McCain won the most delegates, with Rep. Ron Paul in second. But another report in the Shreveport Times says that "the uncommitted "Pro-Life/Pro-Family" slate appeared to win a majority of delegates in all seven congressional districts."

Posters for the Pro-Live/Pro-Family Party feature a picture of the late President Ronald Reagan and his wife Nancy, and the copy tells supporters to "Win One for the Gipper." This seems to hint at a dream-come-true for most Republicans - that Ronald Reagan can come back form the grave to win another election.

But like all caucuses, this one also has unusual rules. Basically the delegates selected Tuesday get to go to the state convention to pick delegates for the national convention.

But wait, there's more ...

As the National Review Online explains: "The state has a separate presidential primary on Feb. 9. If a candidate gets 50 percent +1 - not unthinkable if Florida and Super Duper Tuesday narrow the field some - then that candidate automatically gets 20 of the state's 47 delegates. If no candidate meets that threshold, then the state convention selects almost all of the state's delegates."

Hat tip: Eric Pffeifer/Ground Game

New Hampshire Recount Stops After Money Dries Up

Well, so much for the conspiracies theories.

That doesn't mean that they won't continue to circulate around the Internet, of course, but the state of New Hampshire has stopped the recounting of the votes in the Democratic primary after doing about 40 percent of the vote. The reason? The $27,000 Rep. Dennis Kucinich gave to recount the vote was gone - so no more money, no more counting. And after 40 percent, there were no major problems or wild vote swings, except for a handful of votes being off because of human error. You can see the final results here

The Republican, recount, by the way began today. It's being paid for by Republican candidate Albert Howard (did he finish ahead of Giuliani in New Hampshire too?) who had a total of 44 votes in the primary. There would have to be a real BIG problem for him to turn this loss around. But Howard isn't giving up hope. According to a headline on his website, "The Angel of the Lord told me in January of 1992 that Hillary Rodham Clinton and I would meet and be running against each other and that she would lose."
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2:42 PM ET | 01-24-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

John Edwards Struggles For a Victory in Primaries

Democratic candidate John Edwards is far from unknown, as Ken Rudin writes in this week's Political Junkie column. He was, after all, a former U.S. Senator and the Democratic Party's nominee for vice-president in 2004. And while other former vice-presidential nominees have struggled in their later bids for the presidency, "I can't help but think that he expected to fare better," Ken writes

Democratic presidential candidate former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) leaves a campaign event to speak to members of the press Wednesday in Bennettsville, South Carolina.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

"Then again, it's not every day that the contest for a presidential nomination comes down to a woman and an African-American man, let alone ones who have managed to raise over one hundred million dollars each. With all due respect to Edwards, who has run a good campaign and has been impressive in the debates (and with apologies to Dennis Kucinich, who has not made an appreciable impact in the race), the Democratic nomination, by all appearances, has come down to a choice between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama."

But Ken also notes that his mailbag has been filled the past week with comments from Edwards supporters who believe that the media have written off Edwards as a serious candidate. Don't forget, they point out, that Clinton was being written off by the media before New Hampshire, Romney before Michigan and McCain was all but buried last summer.

But then came Nevada, where Edwards finished with only four percent. Ken writes that the next test for Edwards is South Carolina. It's not do-or-die time, but it's a state he did win four years ago during his first run.

"But if not South Carolina, then where?"

Conservatives Continue Attacks on McCain

You can almost hear conservatives' teeth grinding every time they say the name "John McCain."

Conservative talk-show host and columnist Hugh Hewitt is a good example. Along with Rush Limbaugh, Hewitt has taken every opportunity he can to attack McCain. His most recent broadside is about the Supreme Court. He argues in a column on Townhall.org that anyone who considers themselves a real conservative could not vote for McCain because of what would happen to the Supreme Court.

US Republican presidential hopeful John McCain answers reporters questions after an economic roundtable meeting at Baker Manufacturing Company during a campaign stop In Orlando, ahead of Florida's 29 January presidential primary.

Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images

Hewitt believes that if McCain is elected president, he will be "Soutered." The jibe refers to the appointment of Justice David Souter by President George H.W. Bush. Believed to be a conservative, Souter has consistently been one of the more liberal members of the Supreme Court. And Hewitt believes that McCain would make similar mistakes.

Senator McCain lacks the ear. He lacks the passion for the Court's future. His love of the approval of the Beltway elites almost guarantees a "consensus" choice for the Supreme Court if he is the one making it ...

Meanwhile, over at National Review Online, Mark Krikorian accuses McCain of being a "multiculturalist" because of his immigration policies.

I don't mean he eats tacos at the Cinco de Mayo parade (nothing wrong with that!) - I mean he's an ideological multiculturalist. Francis Fukuyama has described the ideology of multiculturalism this way: "not just as tolerance of cultural diversity in de facto multicultural societies but as the demand for legal recognition of the rights of ethnic, racial, religious, or cultural groups." At almost every turn over his entire public career, John McCain has supported the pluribus over the unum.

Update: Dave Reinhard of The Oregonian, a conservative who is trying to find a way to support McCain, offers a more nuanced criticism.

McCain, Romney Battle for Key Florida Victory

A few months ago, John McCain had to pull his campaign out of Florida because he had run so low on cash. But in another example of his astonishing turn-around, McCain is now leading the pack in Florida according to a new poll that show McCain and Mitt Romney battling for Florida while longtime frontrunner Rudy Giuliani continues to fade.

In the St. Petersburg Times, Bay News 9 and Miami Herald poll of 800 likely voters, McCain had 25 percent and Romney had 23 percent - when you factor in the margin of error, it's a dead-heat. Giuliani and Mike Huckabee each got 15 percent.

NPR's Don Gonyea is with McCain as he tours Florida. He writes that McCain is working hard to build on his successes in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Wednesday he spent the day talking about the economy at a company called Baker Manufacturing, located in an industrial section of Orlando. (The Florida poll also shows that Republicans see McCain as the best candidate to talk about the economy than Mitt Romney, 31 t- 23 percent, despite Romney's business credentials.)

"Let's have some straight talk," McCain said at the plant. "Our economy is experiencing serious challenges, but let me say our fundamentals are still strong, and I believe we can make a comeback." McCain called for keeping taxes low and for making permanent the tax cuts enacted during the Bush administration. But he also made a pitch for green fuel technology, that would help address greenhouse gas emissions, which he flatly stated are hurting the planet.

Update: Three new polls show how close the race has become between Romney and McCain. A Mason-Dixon poll shows Romney with 30 percent, McCain with 26 and Giuliani with 18 percent. Rasmussen has it 27 -23 for Romney over McCain, while Insider Advantage give it to McCain 23-22 percent.

Why Fellow GOP Rivals Dislike Mitt Romney

It really started back in Iowa and New Hampshire: a kind of collective disdain for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on the part of his fellow GOP rivals.

The British newspaper The Times noted it in an article on New Year's Day, observing that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. John McCain took turns defending each other from attacks by Romney - "I felt like when Mitt Romney went after the integrity of John McCain, he crossed the line," Mr Huckabee said. "John McCain is a hero to me." Mr McCain said: "He's attacking Huckabee, who's a good man."

Republican presidential hopeful former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney addresses the Republican Jewish Coalition of Florida at the Marriott Hotel January 22, 2008 in Boca Raton, Florida

Marc Serota/Getty Images

A few days later the Washington Post's political blog, The Trail, noted after a Republican debate that "Romney has turned out to be the unifier in the Republican field, disliked by all his rivals in a way that is rarely seen in presidential campaigns. The collective disdain for Romney may have been the most arresting story line coming out of Saturday's GOP debate at Saint Anselm College."

Then today, The New York Times writes that while much of the media has been focused on the sniping between Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, "the almost visceral scorn directed at Mr. Romney by his rivals has been overshadowed."

Mike Huckabee's campaign chairman, Ed Rollins (a man not known for tempering his opinions) said at one point that he wanted to knock Romney's front teeth out.

Observers attribute this dislike to three factors: Romney's use of negative advertising against his opponents, breaking what they feel is a long standing rule of GOP politics not to attack fellow Republicans; his willingness to, as they describe it, say whatever he think will get him elected, even if it contradicts a previous statement; and "resentment about his seemingly unlimited resources as others have struggled to raise cash."

For its part, the Romney campaign says the animosity comes from the desire of the other candidates "to tackle the guy on the field who has the ball."

Why Obama Voted "Present" So Often in Illinois

Anyone who ever went to public school in America knows that when your name was called by your home room teacher each day, you shouted out 'present.' It meant that you were in your seat and raring to go .. or maybe you were just in your seat.

Just being "present" in the Illinois legislature for important votes, however, has become a bit of a problem for Sen. Barack Obama. His rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton pointed out in the most recent Democratic debate that "In the Illinois State Senate, Senator Obama voted 130 times 'present. "That's not 'yes.' That's not 'no.' That's 'maybe.'"

US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama addresses supporters during a rally at Dillon High School in Dillon, South Carolina, 23 January 2008. Obama is on the campaign trail ahead of the South Carolina primary vote scheduled for 26 January.

Emmanuel Dunande/AFP/Getty Images

But as David Schaper points out for All Things Considered, sometimes "maybe" can be a pretty strategic vote. Pam Sutherland, president and CEO of the Illinois Planned Parenthood Council, says Obama voted "present" at least seven times to provide cover to other abortion-rights supporters on such bills as the "Born Alive Infant Protection Act."

Then again, maybe he was just giving the issue too much consideration. Chris Mooney, a political science professor at the University of Illinois, Springfield, says that "A person as cerebral as Sen. Obama might be prone to such a thing, thinking things through a little too carefully."

Obama's more serious problem - one that has bit him before - is his relationship with Tony Rezko, an indicted Chicago real estate developer and political fundraiser. Clinton described Rezko as Obama's "slum landlord" friend.

But records show that Obama only did five hours with of billable work with community groups that partnered with Rezko's development company. He did not work for Rezko directly. Yet a questionable real estate deal involving some land he purchased from Rezko's wife to expand the yard next to his house has continued to haunt him. Though there are no allegations of wrong-doing by Obama, Cindy Canary of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform says the relationship may hurt him. "I think this will stand out in Sen. Obama's career as the date he wishes he'd never gone on," she says.

(It should be pointed out that Obama is not the only Democratic candidate who has faced questions about dubious real estate deals - Sen. Clinton has some well-known experience with a similar issue herself.)

January 23, 2008

California Poll Shows Dramatic Changes in GOP Primary

As musician Mark Knopfler once wrote, "Some days you're the windshield and some days you're the bug." Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani must be feeling kind of buggy these days. Recent polls in Florida and New York have shown his once large leads in those Republican primaries have vanished and he has fallen out of the frontrunner position in both states. Now the California Poll by the Field Organization shows that California is bugging Giuliani too.

A month ago, he led the GOP field in the Golden State with 25 percent. The new poll, out today, shows that he is in fourth place with 11 percent. Sen. John McCain leads with 22 percent, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney is next with 18 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is tied with Giuliani at 11, the now departed former Tenn. Sen. Fred Thompson with 9 percent, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul bringing up the rear with seven percent.

But as Poll director Mark DiCamillo told Alex Chadwick on Day to Day, the most interesting number may be the 21 percent who told pollsters they were undecided. And the toughest question the candidates may need to deal with is illegal immigration, a "tough balancing act" in a state where 35 percent of the population is Hispanic.

Latino Evangelicals Move Away from Republicans

Christian evangelicals have been a group that Republicans have been able to count on solidly since Ronald Reagan's presidency. But now a split appears to be growing between the party and Latino evangelicals over the issue of immigration.

Christianity Today magazine reports that before the issue of immigration became such a hot button issue, "nearly four in ten Hispanic voters and two-thirds of Hispanic evangelicals backed Bush in 2004 - and those numbers were headed up for 2006."

But starting in the 2006 midterm elections, when immigration was only beginning to appear as a major political issue, Latino support for Republicans fell 10 points. More than 80 percent of Latinos are Roman Catholics, Pentecostals, or evangelicals. And while they favor conservative positions on social issues, the magazine writes, they also favor more liberal position on immigration and economic issues.

Luis Lugo, director of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, says that while Latinos account for only about 6.4 percent of the vote overall on election day, in states like Florida, New Mexico and Colorado, they may double that total. Enough to swing a close state from the Republican category to the Democratic one.

Is Barack Obama "Marginalized" By Race Factors?

The most recent Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby of South Carolina shows Sen. Barack Obama with a nearly 20-point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton ahead of Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary. And his lead among African-Americans in the state is staggering: a margin of 65 percent to Clinton's 16 percent.

But a reader makes the following observation:

Why is that women can take pride in the fact that Hillary is the first viable/electable female presidential candidate and provide her their support and she not be labeled the "female" candidate. While if African-Americans take pride in and support Obama, the first viable/electable African-American candidate, he is labeled the "black" candidate. Our country is still caught up in race. On one hand African-Americans are told to participate in the process, however, if we come out in support of an African-American candidate he is marginalized. Obama does not have a problem with race. The problem is that White America is still xenophobic when it comes to African-Americans and race relations in general ...

Is Barack Obama being unfairly penalized for having strong support among African-Americans in ways that Hillary Clinton is not for having strong support among women?

Absentee, Early Voters Could Be Big Help to Giuliani

What if they gave a primary ... but it had already been decided before the actual day people went to the polls?

And it has nothing to do with manipulating the vote or stealing an election. But in big states like Florida and California, that have liberal absentee and early voting laws, enough people may have voted in advance that the election's outcome may already be decided, but just unknown.

In Florida, for instance, the early voting laws could be a big help to a candidate like Rudy Giuliani, who has been campaigning in the state for more than 50 straight days. If the Giuliani campaign has been able to persuade enough supporters to vote in early January, when absentee voting started, or after Jan. 14, when early voting was allowed - it could help blunt the recent surge of Sen. John McCain in the state. (Giuliani had long lead polls in the state until the past few days.)

On the other side, a candidate it could hurt is former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney. Once Sen. Fred Thompson announced Tuesday he was ending his campaign, the chatter on many websites and blogs was that a chunk of his support would go to Romney. But if many of those Thompson supporters have already voted, then those votes are like Confederate currency - basically worthless. And there are no mulligans on voting day, which means that Romney will have lost the chance to get the support of those early Thompson voters.

All of this means a much more complex strategy is needed by campaign organizers and, of course, more money to go into these big states to convince people to vote early for their candidates.

Ron Paul Supporters Have Another Good Money Day

Well, it wasn't quite a money bomb. More like a money hand grenade.

But Ron Paul's supporters have come through for him again - although not in the numbers of earlier fundraising efforts. On Monday, Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Paul supporters organized another of their 24-hour "money bomb" fundraising events. (Monday was chosen partially to counter recent allegations that racial epithets were used in newsletters that had the Texas Congressman's name on them - Paul, for his part, recently said he considered King a hero.)

The last money bomb in December raised more than $6 million for Paul. Monday's total wasn't quite so grand - $1.85 million - but it was more than the $1 million Sen. John McCain raised at a much publicized event in New York Tuesday night or the $300,000 Chuck Norris raised for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at an event Sunday at his ranch.

When Jonathan Bydlak, Paul's financing director, announced the results last night, he couldn't resists a dig at another Huckabee's perilous financial situation:

"For those of you who haven't heard, Mike Huckabee's campaign is broke. Don't let the same thing happen to Ron Paul. After all, where else would Mike Huckabee get all of his ideas? Contribute today!"

Obama Seeks to Transcend the Race Issue

Barack Obama's performance in the most recent Democratic debate - held by CNN in South Carolina Monday night - was like the old Timex watch commercial: he took a licking, but kept on ticking.

As our Senior Washington Editor Ron Elving writes in his most recent Watching Washington column, that as plodding as Obama can seem in a debate setting, "the takeaway impression from the first hour of the debate on CNN was of Obama at the center of the action, hounded on all sides, keeping his cool and remaining sympathetic. While at times his broad face looked pained, he was able to turn the mood to humor more than once and flash his trademark smile."

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, seemed too focused on her "hit list," writes Ron. And her relentless assaults on Obama became wearing, and she overstepped the mark with some of her comments that brought boos and whistles from all sections of the audience.

But a solid debate performance in front of a largely friendly crowd will not win the Democratic presidential nomination or the general election in the fall, Ron says. In fact, in strengthening his standing among African-Americans, he might become 'become the latter day Jesse Jackson (who ran twice for president in the 1980s without getting close). Jackson was the first serious black candidate on the national level; Obama wants to be the first to be elected. Transcending race is a worthy ideal, and it's also his only practical way to win."

Michael Bloomberg, the French Vanilla Candidate

To run or not to run, there's the question ... for New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg at least. As we've reported several times on NPR and in the blog, Bloomberg keeps denying that he is planning on making a run for president as an independent, but his aides and surrogates keep sending signals that he's a player. Or will be, at the right time. (We also have our candidate bingo card to track this billionaire mayor's campaign-line activities.)

Today hizzoner is in Washington to address mayors from across the U.S. on the state of the economy at the United States Conference of Mayors 76th Annual Meeting. Bloomberg will also pick up the President's Award for Mayoral Leadership on Global Climate Protection. (Speech on economy, environmental award ... all good presidential campaign material.)

But in an open letter that commentator and Republican political consultant Mike Murphy read Tuesday night on All Things Considered, he said the problem is that Bloomberg, although he has been a great mayor of New York, is a niche candidate on the national level. "If you were ice cream, you wouldn't be chocolate or vanilla. You're French vanilla. Liberal on social issues, conservative on fiscal matters - it's a very, very attractive thing to be ... for about 17 percent of the voters."

January 22, 2008

McCain Popular with People Against the War

Here's a mind-boggling fact: people who are opposed to the Iraq war look very favorably towards Sen. John McCain - supporter of President Bush and the troop surge in Iraq.

No, that is not a typo. In New Hampshire, for instance, exits polls show that he did very well with those opposed to the war. And he did poorly among big supporters of the war in both New Hampshire and Michigan.

Go figure.

As Slate.com's John Dickerson explained today on Day to Day, the early primaries and caucuses may not be a true test of McCain's position with the anti-war movement. Right now the Republican field is very "mushy" as Dickerson explained, and so it's easier for McCain to avoid direct confrontations about his support of the war. McCain also benefits from being seen by many as a person who can get us out of Iraq without "breaking a lot of china."

But once the Democrats have turned their attention to the fall election, feelings about his support of the war may become a point of contention for Democrats who look kindly on him now, Dickerson says. And McCain has also said he believes in remaining in Iraq for as long as needed, which will be fall fodder for Democrats - who want to get out of Iraq as soon as possible.

Money a Problem for Many Candidates Before Feb. 5

The question in the minds of many of the remaining presidential candidates right now, both Republican and Democratic, is whether or not they should go for the Hail Mary at the last second.

The Hail Mary is the NFL Super Bowl and the last second is Super Tuesday. And with so many states to cover on Feb.5 and campaign ad budgets shrinking faster than most people's stock portfolios, the big question is whether or not to go for the long bomb - an ad on the big game on Feb 3 - or to buy a lot of locally target ads. The cost for a Super Bowl ad is around $2.7 million. But you also have the attention of a sizable number of voters in the 22 states that are up for grabs on Super Tuesday.

The Washington Post reports that the Barack Obama campaign "yesterday became the first to make a nationwide cable television advertising buy, and several candidates were devoting resources to new methods of targeting absentee voters."

You can see the affect that money has most clearly in the Republican field. (Democrats Obama and Hillary Clinton have both raised more than $100 million, but have attended additional fund-raisers in the past couple of days to sure up that dwindling bundle.)

First, there is millionaire Mitt Romney. He is using more and more of his own fortune in his run for the nomination and may end up spending as much as $50 million of his own money.

On the other hand is Mike Huckabee. As The New York Times "The Trail" reports "A chronic lack of campaign money may finally be catching up to Mike Huckabee."

The former Arkansas governor has not been able to translate his victory in Iowa into more funds for his candidacy. Now that he's lost in South Carolina, a state many considered his best chance at another victory in the early primaries and caucuses, he has "canceled press buses or charter flights to conserve his cash" and cut down on his number of appearances in Florida.

"Mr. Huckabee raised only about $2.3 million in the first three quarters of last year, less than 5 percent of what his three remaining competitors raised. He never had enough money to send advance teams to plan events or drum up crowds, nor could he afford polls, big-name political consultants, or a staff of policy advisers."

Economic Problems Could Help Romney

A few weeks ago, when former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, Republicans like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani took the opportunity to stress their security credentials. But that was then. This is now.

And now, it's the economy, stupid. Jonathan Martin of Politico writes that this situation is made in heaven (so to speak) for Mitt Romney, who says he has stronger business and economic credentials than his rivals.

"First, the anticipated drop of the stock market is taking place. As of just before 10, the Dow was down about 300 points. This will exacerbate fears of a full-fledged meltdown and spur that many more IRA-holding Floridians to vote their pocketbook. A week of bad economic headlines can only benefit the candidate running explicitly on an economic message ..."

And as if by magic, Romney has an ad out in Florida today that specifically talks about his economic plan.

A new American Research Group poll has McCain at 29 percent and Romney at 22 percent. So it will be interesting to see if today's global stock market tumbles and the Fed's decision to cut the interest rate by 3/4 of a point will shake up those standings.

Thompson Out of GOP Presidential Race

In a three-sentence statement on his website, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson announced that he has resigned from the Republican presidential campaign.

"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."

The news of Thompson's withdrawal is a boon for former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, both of whom will look to attract the conservative voters who supported Thompson.

'Conservative' Pundits Battle Over Romney, McCain

There's an interesting battle shaping up between conservative pundits who support Sen. John McCain or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and those who support former Mass. Gov. Mitt romney. Basically, the dispute boils down to which candidate best represents 'real' conservative values.

Talk show host Rush Limbaugh fired a broadside during his show Monday against the "numerous pundits on the left who write their conservatism to be read by liberals." He pillories them for focusing on McCain in particular, while never mentioning how well Mitt Romney did in Wyoming and Nevada. And now, Limbaugh says, conservatives like him are supposed to be quiet for the good of the party.

"Why should we in talk radio sit here and take our marching orders from the Drive-By Media and others in our movement who write what they write, for liberals in the Drive-By Media."

Accompanying the transcript of the comments on the website is a mashed-up photo of Limbaugh holding a megaphone, shouting at an image of conservative writer William Kristol, who is showing wearing a McCain 2008 t-shirt. Kristol recently joined fellow conservative David Brooks as an op-ed columnist for The New York Times. In a glowing column about McCain yesterday, Kristol described him as a "neo-Victorian - rigid, self-righteous and moralizing, but (or rather and) manly, courageous and principled."

Did Clinton Say Reagan Was Her Favorite President?

A reader writes:

I've seen people debating here whether Obama praised Reagan, but what is unequivocally true is that Senator Clinton called Reagan one of her favorite presidents in an interview with the Salmon (sp?) in New Hampshire. This is just one more example of Senator Clinton attacking Obama for positions she herself has taken. This is the kind of hypocrisy we used to vilify Republicans for.

The reader is referring to an editorial from the Salmon Press , which is comprised of 11 weekly newspapers published throughout New Hampshire's Lakes Region and North Country, in which the papers' publishers endorsed her candidacy for the president. The editorial includes the following two sentences: "Her list of favorite presidents - Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Lincoln, both Roosevelts, Truman, George H.W. Bush and Reagan - demonstrates how she thinks. As expected, Bill Clinton was also included on the aforementioned list."

This line in the editorial was picked up by NBC's Tim Russert on this past Sunday's Meet The Press. While Russert and his guests were discussing the favorable comments about President Ronald Reagan made by Barack Obama, he mentioned the Salmon editorial: "Interestingly enough, the Salmon Press in New Hampshire, which endorsed Hillary Clinton, cited as one of the reasons that, when they talked to her in the interview, she listed Ronald Reagan as one of her favorite presidents."

But what Russert didn't mention, and the Clinton campaign had up on its website as of last Friday, was a statement from the publisher of the Salmon Press about the editorial.

The question posed was originally what portraits would you hang in the White House if you were President and as the dialogue progressed, who are the presidents you admire most?

She [Sen. Clinton] listed several presidents that she admired and mentioned she liked Reagan's communication skills. She did not say Reagan was her favorite President. She didn't say anything close to that.

So in the end, you might say it depends on what the definition of "admired" is.

Clinton, Obama Exchange Accusations in Debate

It's easy to see that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is a close one. You could tell that from the heated, often bitter remarks and accusations that Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama traded Monday night in a CNN-sponsored debate.

Perhaps the most cutting exchange came when Obama told Clinton that he was helping unemployed workers on the streets of Chicago when "you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board at Wal-Mart." Clinton, a few moments later, said that she was fighting against misguided Republican policies "when you were practicing law and representing your contributor ... in his slum landlord business in inner city Chicago."

(Chicago real estate developer and fast food magnate Antoin "Tony" Rezko was a longtime fundraiser for Obama. Prosecutors have charged him with fraud, attempted extortion and money laundering in what they allege was a scheme to get campaign money and payoffs from firms seeking to do business before two state boards. In the past two years, Obama gave to charities more than $50,000 from donors linked to Rezko.)

It didn't get much friendlier after that.

Obama also let his irritation about the role former President Bill Clinton is playing in the campaign show. He accused President Clinton of making false statements and distortions about him. Sen. Clinton snapped "I'm here. He's not." Obama then came back with "Well, I can't tell who I'm running against sometimes."

It often seemed that former Sen. John Edwards was the odd person out, who at times during the debate looked annoyed that Obama and Clinton were spending so much of their time snipping at each other.

"Are there three people in this debate, not two?" he asked. "We have got to understand, this is not about us personally. It is about what we are trying to do for this country."

January 21, 2008

Once a Sure Thing for Giuliani, Florida Up For Grabs

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani ignored the early states to concentrate on the Florida primary, set for Jan. 29th. Even as he racked up single-digit vote totals in states like Iowa, Michigan and Nevada, and not much better in the other states, his campaign continued to insist that once he won in Florida, he would leap back into the national spotlight and challenge for the front-runner title.

Then again, maybe not.

A new survey out from Rasmussen Reports shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with a small lead over John McCain, with Giuliani close behind in third at 19 percent. Several other recent polls have shown McCain with a lead over Romney or Giuliani. Giuliani has lead only one recent poll, and that by a point. And one of the state's most influential papers, the Orlando Sentinel, came out with a strong endorsement for McCain Sunday.

But it isn't only Florida were Giuliani has seen large leads evaporate. A new Siena College survey out today in his home state of New York shows that McCain has surged into a 12-point lead over the former mayor in his home state. Only a month ago, Giuliani lead McCain 48 percent to 15 percent. But the survey out today shows McCain with a 36-24 percent lead.

And a new WNBC/Marist poll shows McCain with a 15-point lead over Giuliani in New York.

The New York Daily News' "Daily Politics" blog reports that New York GOP chairman Joe Mondello stood by his guy, quoting Yogi Berra: "It ain't over 'til it's over." He predicted that Giuliani would win Florida next Tuesday and then New York on Feb. 5.

N.H. Recount Shows Few Changes

Remember all the buzz after the Democratic results in the New Hampshire primary? The final results, a victory for Hillary Clinton, were so different from what the polls had been showing the day before - a wide lead for Barack Obama - that all sorts of reasons were offered up. There were even suggestions, particularly on the Internet, that there had been some vote manipulation taking place. And so Rep. Dennis Kucinich, citing these rumors, asked for (and agreed to pay for) a complete recount of the New Hampshire primary.

Maybe he should have saved his money.

So far, the recount has covered about 25 percent of the total votes cast, and most of the candidates are down by about 2 percent: Hillary Clinton is down 2 percent, Barack Obama is down 2.1 percent, and John Edwards is also down 2.1 percent. The Democrat who has lost the most votes so far in the recount? Dennis Kucinich. He's down 3 percent.

Meanwhile, in other Kucinich news, his campaign sent a complaint to the FCC about being excluded from Monday night's CNN debate in South Carolina. The Kucinich people say that CNN has deliberately set the bar for participation in the debate (5 points in a national survey) one point above any Kucinich total (4 points in the last national survey).

"The CNN criteria specifically exclude the diverse and anti-war voice of Mr. Kucinich and his grass-roots supporters," according to the complaint. "The exclusion of Mr. Kucinich undermines the purpose of the (Federal Communications) Act and is a blatant violation of the Act, including its equal time provisions."

January 20, 2008

McCain Wins South Carolina, Huckabee Close Second

Reversing a loss he suffered in the state eight years ago, Arizona Senator John McCain won a narrow victory over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. With 97 percent of the polls reporting, McCain has 33 percent of the vote to Huckabee's 30 percent.

NPR reports that early exit polls conducted by the Associated Press and TV Networks showed that moderate voters and older voters supported McCain, while those attending church most often (more than once a week) more often voted for Huckabee. Military veterans made up one fourth of the Republican voters, and McCain had a 10-point lead over his rival with this group.

Former Baptist minister Huckabee had the advantage of campaigning in a state where at least 40 percent of the voters consider themselves evangelicals. More than half of those voting Saturday identified themselves in this camp.

Huckabee might have won his own narrow victory, except the showing of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, particularly in the western area of the state with its large evangelical Christian voting bloc. At one point in the evening, Thompson, who won 16 percent of the vote, gave a ten-minute speech that seemed to be leading up to his withdrawal from the presidential race. But then he abruptly ended it and walked off.

Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney was third with 15 percent, then Texas Rep. Ron Paul with four, and bringing up the rear was former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 2 percent.

January 19, 2008

Clinton, Romney Win in Nevada Caucuses

Sen. Hillary Clinton won a narrow victory over her main rival, Sen. Barack Obama in today's Nevada caucuses. With about 90 percent of the caucuses reporting, Clinton had about 51 percent of the vote with Obama close behind at 45 percent. Former Sen. John Edwards trailed far behind at 4 percent.

On the Republican side, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney won in a landslide, with 52 percent of the vote. Texas Rep. Ron Paul and Sen. John McCain are tied for second with 13 percent.

Romney and Paul were the only two Republicans to do much campaigning in the state. Most of the other candidates are focusing on today's primary in South Carolina. Polls close at 7 p.m.

January 18, 2008

GOP Front-Runner Could Emerge in South Carolina

The Republican Party is in an unusual situation. Normally a front-runner for the presidential nomination has emerged by now and the party has been able to gather around that individual to fight the Democrats. But there are still four, maybe even five, candidates who have a realistic shot at the gold ring.

But as NPR's David Greene reported on Day to Day, no Republican since 1980 has won the GOP nomination without winning South Carolina. And in the two candidates leading in the most recent polls, John McCain and Mike Huckabee, you could not find two more divergent styles.

Huckabee, the populist evangelical Christian, who features actor Chuck Norris and former pro-wrestler Rick Flair in his campaign events. And McCain, the warrior, who proudly talks about how people said he was finished after he backed the troop surge in Iraq, or gave up on his campaign this past summer.

Although Mitt Romney has aired more TV ads in this state than anyone else since last February, according to recent Nielsen Monitor-Plus reports, he has more or less pulled out of South Carolina and is hoping instead for a victory in the Nevada caucuses.

For the first time the state may not settle who will win the Republican nomination - that probably won't happen until Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, if then. But whoever wins the state will have momentum, and be more appealing to the voters in the 22 states that go to the polls that day.

Will Gender Gap Hurt Obama in Nevada?

A poll conducted for the Las Vegas Review, and published in today's edition, shows Sen. Hillary Clinton with a "comfortable lead" over Sen. Barack Obama in Nevada. The poll, conducted by the Mason-Dixon organization, shows Clinton with a nine-point lead, 41 to 32, with John Edwards with 14 percent.

The Chicago Tribune's The Swamp notes, however, that it is very difficult to poll in a caucus state, especially in one with no recent history of importance in the presidential campaign. But Clinton has a substantial lead among women - 49 percent, compared to 28 percent for Obama - and among those over 50.

Obama leads among men - but only 37 to 30 percent. He also had a seven percent lead in union housholds and a huge 45 percent lead among African-Americans, but they make up just 10 percent of likely caucus-goers.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney leads John McCain by 15 points, 34 percent to 19 percent. The real story on the GOP side is the collapse of the support for Rudy Giuliani, who lead the last poll the paper did in early December.

Confederate Flag Group Runs Ads For Huckabee

Americans for the Preservation of American Culture, a group that supports flying the Confederate flag in public, is running one-minute radio ads in South Carolina praising former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee for his stand on the issue, while attacking his main rivals in the state, Sen. John McCain and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney.

"Gov. Huckabee understands that all the average guy with a Confederate flag on his pickup truck is saying is, he's proud to be a Southerner ... Mike Huckabee understands we value our heritage, and why. He says it's up to us to decide how. Sen. McCain may have decided that his ancestors, as he puts it, 'were on the wrong side of history when they wore gray.' But in South Carolina, we're proud to be Southerners."

Another ad takes a shot at Romney, saying that "We've got a message for Mitt Romney: in South Carolina, we're proud to be Southerners."

On Thursday, Huckabee told the audience at a campaign event in Myrtle Beach that, "You don't like people from outside the state coming in and telling you what to do with your flag. In fact, if somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we'd tell them what to do with the pole."

The ads will be running on South Carolina conservative talk radio stations in Charleston, Columbia, Florence, and Greenville.

Barack Obama and His Conservative Fans

One of the more consistent secondary themes in this presidential campaign has been the support Illinois Democratic Senator Barack Obama has attracted from conservative writers and pundits. (Similar to the sort of attention that Republican Sen. John McCain has attracted from liberals and independents).

The Atlantic's iconoclastic conservative Andrew Sullivan, for instance, has been a fervent supporter of Obama. Other conservatives with kind words for Obama include David Brooks, Joe Scarborough, Rush Limbaugh and Bill Bennett.

Now a leading British magazine, Prospect, has published an article (entitled "Obama the Conservative") that says "despite running for the candidacy of the Democratic party, Barack Obama should be the great hope of conservatives - both in the US and Europe."

"European conservatives should, like many of their American cousins, hope not only for an Obama nomination, but also for his election on November 4th. It has been difficult to present a strong case for conservatism in Europe, partly because of the Bush administration. But Obama could change that; a charismatic and broadly supported president with ideas similar to Burkean philosophy would lend credibility to conservatism everywhere. Four more years of partisan trench warfare won't."

Obama might become even more attractive to conservatives after he reads his interview with the Reno Gazette's editorial board from this past week, where he praised Ronald Reagan.

Fellow Democratic candidate John Edwards, however, did not look upon the Reagan reference so kindly. Knowing that Nevada is probably one of the country's most union-heavy states, he took direct aim at Obama for "using Ronald Reagan as an example of change," and said he himself would never praise the Republican icon that way.

"He was openly - openly - intolerant of unions and the right to organize. He openly fought against the union and the organized labor movement in this country," Edwards said in Henderson, Nevada. "He openly did extraordinary damage to the middle class and working people, created a tax structure that favored the very wealthiest Americans and caused the middle class and working people to struggle every single day."

Economic Stimulus Packages Keep Upping the Ante

Now that President Bush has come forward with an economic stimulus package worth $145 billion in an effort to quickly get money into people's hands, NPR's Scott Horsley takes a look at how the amount of money that presidential candidates, and then finally the president, have proposed spending to keep us out of recession in the past few weeks.

Here's the breakdown of the numbers from Scott:

December 22, 2007: John Edwards proposes economic stimulus package worth $25 billion (with $75 billion more possible if needed.)

January 11, 2008: Hillary Clinton proposes economic stimulus package worth $70 billion.

January 13, 2008: Barack Obama proposes economic stimulus package worth $75 billion (with $45 billion more possible if needed.)

January 17, 2008: Hillary Clinton raises the ante on her own stimulus package, adding $40 billion in tax rebates for a total of $110 billion.

January 18, 2008: President Bush calls for economic stimulus worth $145 billion.

It looks like a poker game (with a lot of zeros) which is probably appropriate, considering the Nevada caucuses are this weekend.

Candidate Bingo: How to Tell If Bloomberg Is Running

There's been a lot of speculation recently about New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg running for president as an independent. Bloomberg keeps denying that this is so, but his surrogates and supporters keep giving off signals that the multi-billionaire is seriously considering a bid.

So NPR's Robert Smith decided to tail Bloomberg for a week to see if he could spot the "tells" signaling a possible Bloomberg candidacy. Robert even used an ingenious method devised by NPR to help him in mission: Candidate Bingo!

Some of the candidate-like activities on our bingo card that can earn you a square include: "Follow NASCAR," "Smile Constantly," "Kiss Babies."

But it looks like Robert won't be jumping up and shouting "Bingo!" anytime soon. Based on the his performance during the week he was observed, Bloomberg passed up one opportunity after another to act like a candidate. As Robert reports:

"Mayor Bloomberg doesn't exude the populist touch. He didn't talk NASCAR or eat junk food. In fact, when faced with a buffet table of sweets, he opted for an eighth of a pumpernickel bagel. Another big test was at the firefighter graduation. The room was filled with adorable babies. Adorable babies of firefighters. What politician could resist? Bloomberg didn't smooch a one of them."

Obviously if Bloomberg is going to run for office, he's going to have shake up his image and kiss a few babies.

You can track Bloomberg or anyone else you think might be considering a bid for the oval office (or any other office for that matter), by printing off your own copy of our handy-dandy Candidate Bingo card.

Obama, Thompson, McCain Talk About The Economy

It's a good day when you can get one interview with a presidential candidate. Thursday NPR's All Things Considered got to talk to three of them.

First, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama talked about an issue gaining increasing importance in the campaign, the economy. He told NPR's Melissa Block that he understands that people have been hurting for some time, and he feels that his mix of tax cuts and direct spending will give the economy a "fast-acting fix."

He says his plan emphasizes tax relief. His $75 billion package would provide an immediate $250 tax cut per worker, his campaign said in a recent press release. He also calls for a temporary $250 increase in Social Security checks. He said Sen. Hillary Clinton's economic plan would not work as well.

Next, former Republican Sen. Fred Thompson says he recognizes that the economy is headed in the wrong direction, with unemployment up to 5 percent nationwide and the consumer credit market tightening.

If he became president, he tells Robert Siegel, his plans for stimulating the economy could include adding $500 to the child tax credit, or giving a tax rebate to put money in people's pockets and encourage spending. But he also says he is wary of outlining a specific package because it becomes "like a Christmas tree. It becomes more of a pork barrel operation than something that affects the economy."

Thompson also defended himself again charges that his campaign moves too slowly. "We're doing our thing, doing it the way we have always done it, which allowed me to win two races in Tennessee by 20 percent margins," he says

Finally. Republican Sen. John McCain remains confident about his prospects of winning South Carolina this coming Saturday, even among social conservatives, many of whom disagree with him on issues such as immigration.

"In New Hampshire, we were able to get the support of Republicans from all parts of the party, I'm sure we will do that in South Carolina, and we'll win," McCain tells Michele Norris.

The economy was also a topic of concern for McCain. He says he is continuing his strategy of "straight talk" on the loss of U.S. jobs and future economic prospects.

"Voters are smart. They're not uninformed," McCain says. "I can't tell [people] that buggy whip factories will be built nor haberdasheries. But I can tell them that in this new technology revolution we're in, there's going to be plenty of jobs and plenty of opportunities for some of the most productive workers in America."

January 17, 2008

100,000 Donate Online to Obama Since Jan.1

Over the past couple of months, we've heard a lot about how well Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul has done when it comes to fundraising via the Internet. And it's no idle boost. Paul's online supporters helped him raise almost $20 million last quarter, most of it online.

But it looks like there might be a new champ in town. Or maybe he's just reclaiming his title.

TechPresident reports that in the past two weeks, the Barack Obama campaign (which has had a great track record online since Obama announced his candidacy last February) says it has raised money from more than 100,000 donors via the Internet. The report is based on an e-mail sent out by the Obama campaign Wednesday afternoon.

"After the New Hampshire primary last week, we set a goal of 100,000 online donors in 2008 - a goal we hoped to reach before the Nevada caucuses on Saturday. Last night we got there five days early. Think about that: 100,000 donors in 15 days."

As TechPresident notes, that is a huge number of supporters.

"A year into his campaign, Obama's raised money from about 500,000 donors, which averages to about 9600 new donors a week. But in the last two weeks alone he's averaged about 50,000 donors a week. That's darn impressive, and it looks like Barack Obama has displaced Ron Paul to become the online fundraising juggernaut of the campaign. Paul has raised money from a total of 14,000 donors since Dec. 31, and only 6,000 donors in the last two weeks"

But unlike Paul, Obama does not make his numbers available in real time, so there is no data on just how much money the Obama campaign raised from that number of donors.

And you can bet this news will get the Paul supporters fired up. They have another "money bomb" planned for this Monday. During the last one in December, around 59,00 people donated more than $6 million online to his campaign in one day.

Judge Decides Old Rules Apply for Dems in Nevada

A federal judge ruled today that Nevada's Democratic presidential caucuses can take place Saturday under rules set by the party several months ago. The rules had been challenged by six residents along with the state's teachers union who said they created an unfair imbalance in the voting.

Judge James Mahan said existing election law allows for the Democratic Party to resolve the difference internally and that it's not the place of the federal court to adjudicate how the party conducts its caucuses.

At issue were at-large precincts inside nine Las Vegas resorts. The precincts were created last year by the Nevada Democratic party to make it easier for hotel workers to vote in Saturday. The rules about the precincts had been in place for several months with no complaints. But when the Culinary Workers Union Local 226 decided to back Sen. Barack Obama, the rules were challenged in court by a group seen to be backers of Sen. Hillary Clinton.

If you want an idea of how concerned the Clinton campaign was about the situation, take a look at this exchange that is being widely circulated around YouTube and political blogs. Former President Bill Clinton has a testy conversation with political reporter Mark Matthews of San Francisco's KGO-TV over the lawsuit.

When Matthews suggests a connection between the legal action and Mrs. Clinton's supporters, Mr. Clinton retorts: "We had nothing to do with that lawsuit. I read about it in the newspaper."

Clinton also said that "Their votes [in those nine at-large precincts] will be counted five times more powerfully, in terms of delegates to the state convention, compared to delegates to the national convention."

But The Las Vegas Sun "did the math" on the caucus formula, and couldn't see how the president and others came up with the suggestions that they could dominate the state's results.

4:59 PM ET | 01-17-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Romney and Giuliani Air New Ads in Florida

There is a good chance that neither Mitt Romney nor Rudy Giuliani will win this Saturday's primary in South Carolina. But they both believe that they can win Florida on Jan. 29th. With recent polling data showing that Giuliani's once big lead in the state has vanished and has been replaced by a tight four-way race among him, Romney John McCain and Mike Huckabee, the two candidates are airing new TV ads today.

In Romney's new ad, called "Chairs," he moves back to his identity as an agent of change, saying that if we send the same people back to Washington, just to "sit in different chairs" nothing will change. He lists a series of problems that he says Washington hasn't solved.

"I'll take Washington apart and put it back together," Romney promises."I know how to bring change."

The Giuliani ad, called "Quotes" features praise from several conservatives on his tax record. After a series of quotes appears, with stirring martial music in the background, the final one comes from Romney: "Mayor Giuliani has a great record on cutting taxes."

So far Florida is a two-way TV battle between Romney and Giuliani. CNN's consultant on television campaign advertising, TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG, reports that Romney has spent close to $3 million on 3,500 spots in Florida while Giuliani has spent roughly $2 million on 2,100 spots. No other candidate has aired TV spots there yet.

Bernanke, Bush Call for Economic Stimulus

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and President Bush Thursday both called for an economic stimulus package to prevent the country from going into a recession. The Associated Press reports that Bernanke said such a plan should be quickly implemented and temporary so that it won't complicate longer-term fiscal challenges.

And he said that something that would get money into the pockets of Americans now, would be more effective than other measures, including making President Bush's tax cuts permanent.

But the president doesn't seem to be opposed to jump-starting the economy. At the White House, spokesman Tony Fratto said, "The president does believe that over the short term, to deal with the softening of the economy, that some boost is necessary." It's the first confirmation from the white House that Bush supports government intervention.

But as NPR's Brian Naylor reports, the devil is in the details. Both parties want to present a united front on any measure taken to boost the economy, but they are not close to agreeing on what specifically needs to be done.

Brian reports that "Democrats [and some Republicans] tend to favor some direct cash infusions to low- and middle-income Americans in the form of tax rebates, by extending jobless benefits for those out of work, and by making food stamps more available."

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said any stimulus package should add up to $75 billion to $100 billion - and maybe twice that.

But some Republicans want to see the president's tax cuts extended, while another group of conservative House Republicans want to cut the corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent.

Huckabee Signs No Immigration Pledge

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has become the first presidential candidate to sign the "No Amnesty" pledge from NumbersUSA, a self-proclaimed "immigration-reduction organization" and Americans for Better Immigration. The pledge calls for no "amnesty or any other special path to citizenship for the millions of the foreign nationals unlawfully present in the United States."

Huckabee, who had been hammered by conservatives for his "liberal' stands on immigration when he was in office, has taken more anti-immigration positions since the fall. He signed the pledge during a visit to the small Christian college of North Greenville University.

Yet Huckabee's position on immigration has been hard to pin down at times.

Last week, the Washington Times reported that Huckabee told his top immigration adviser that he would amend the Constitution to prevent children born in the U.S. to illegal aliens from automatically becoming American citizens. Minuteman Project founder James Gilchrist said that Huckabee told him "that he would force a test case to the Supreme Court to challenge birthright citizenship, and would push Congress to pass a 28th Amendment to the Constitution to remove any doubt."

But later in the week Huckabee contradicted Gilchrist. He said he had "no intention of supporting a constitutional amendment to deny birthright citizenship." He later claimed in an interview that his campaign had not been contacted by the Times before the story was published. But the original piece included a comment from a Huckabee spokesperson, who was quoted as saying Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Gilchrist were "united by a mutual desire to end illegal immigration and are political allies toward that end."

During the CNN-YouTube debate last November, he told former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney during an exchange about immigration, "In all due respect, we are a better country than to punish children for what their parents did. We're a better country than that."

Rove Dispenses Advice to Republicans

It must be hard to be a former guru. Just ask Karl Rove. The natural inclination is to continue to dispense advice, especially when most of it (not counting the 2006 mid-term elections) has been pretty good. (That probably why he also has a new sideline as a columnist for Newsweek.)

Rove returned to the fold on Wednesday, speaking at the Republican National Committee's Annual Winter Meeting's opening session in Washington, and gave out some advice on how Republicans can beat Democrats this fall.

NPR's David Welna reports that Rove told the audience that they need to "hang in there<' that there is still a lot campaigning to come. Rove says that, unlike the Democrats, the GOP's candidates are all ready from the same script, even if they occasionally disagree with each other. He did express some concern about how that message is being disseminated.

"We have great proposals ... but our candidates have to get out there and better articulate them."

He also chided Hillary Clinton's finish in Michigan, where she was the only major candidate on the ballot. "She's running against nobody, and nobody gets 40 percent of the vote," Rove quipped.

When David pointed out to a GOP official attending the meeting that Rove didn't mention his former boss, President Bush, once in his speech, she said that was unfortunate: "He is a great president, we should be mentioning him more."

But Wisconsin GOP executive director Mark Jefferson says Bush is not being unduly ignored.

"Elections are about looking forward, not the past, said Jefferson. "He'll have a great legacy but 2008 is about what we'll do looking forward."

Democrats Campaigning Hard in Nevada

If you're looking for another sign of how energized Democratic supporters are about this year's presidential race, the turnout in Saturday's Nevada caucuses should give another good sign. A record turn-out is expected in a state that four years ago attracted only 10,000 Democrats to participate.

Then again, the expected turnout might have something to do with when the caucuses are taking place in the political calendar, rather than any outburst of energy. (Nevada moved its caucuses up this year to give it a bigger role in the selection process.)

As NPR's Scott Horsley reports, Nevada presents a significantly different scenario for the candidates. It's the first state with a large Latino community (one-quarter of the state's population is Hispanic). Unions are much stronger than they are in New Hampshire and Iowa. And the state's main attractions are, well, filled with tourists. So Scott says the candidates have developed a three-part formula for campaigning in the state: visit a union hall, walk through a neighborhood, and hold a rally in a high school gym.

And as NPR's Nancy Cook reports, although Nevada has been in the red-state column recently, there are now more Democrats than Republicans registered to vote this Saturday. Though Nevada Republicans are also caucusing that day, the GOP presidential candidates have largely chosen to focus their efforts in South Carolina, whose same-day primary has long been seen as determinative in the race for the Republican nomination.

The caucuses, which will be held Saturday morning and last for several hours (who wants to caucus at night in Vegas, if you're not working there?), is not without controversy. As Nancy notes, "Nine hotels and casinos have been designated as Democratic caucus sites, in a move aimed at making it easier for casino workers to participate. The state Democratic Party let the culinary workers' union, which has endorsed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, choose the sites. But that decision has been challenged in court by the state teacher's union, which argues that the sites unfairly favor Obama."

9:53 AM ET | 01-17-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

January 16, 2008

Candidates Spending Increases As Feb. 5 Approaches

Money is the lifeblood of a political campaign, If you don't have it, you don't get to play for long. And being outspent in a state can often mean you won't win the state. For instance, Republican Mike Huckabee, who finished third in Michigan, says he was he was outspent "fifty to one" by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Michigan - which may not be an exaggeration, considering that Romney, the richest of all the candidates running for the nomination, stopped TV advertising in other states to focus his funds on Michigan.

NPR's Peter Overby reports that the presidential campaigns are building toward "Tsunami Tuesday" on Feb. 5, when 22 states will choose convention delegates. Democrat Hillary Clinton has already bought her television time through then, an enormous outlay considering that TV stations don't take Mastercard. Many other candidates in both parties are starting to see their funds dry up. How are candidates finding the cash to carry them and how are they planning to spend it?

Well, we don't know the answers to all those questions, but here is a chart that shows how the money is coming and going in the campaigns of the leading candidates in both parties.

The story is more mixed for some of the other candidates. Duncan Hunter is close to the end of his money. Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel never had much to begin with. The one exception is Texas Rep. Ron Paul. He raised nearly 20 million last quarter, and his website says he has raised almost $900,000 so far this year. Paul, who has consistently out-polled more "high profile" candidates like Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson in the early states, has bought radio ads in many of the Feb. 5 states.

Brits Offer An Interesting Look at South Carolina

You know that old joke about 'If a Martian landed Earth, would what he think if he saw ..."

Well, the British newspaper the Guardian is offering a less sci-fi, more serious (No Borat here!) version of that old joke. The paper's website has a reporter traveling across the US, shooting web videos about the presidential contests. And in the way that outsiders often do, this peak inside the races by an outsider presents an interesting look at our political process.

For instance, the Guardian's Gary Younge is currently traveling around South Carolina talking to residents of the state about the Republican primary. In his latest video, "With God on their side," he talks to South Carolinians in Pickens County (which has the largest evangelical Christian population in the state) about the role that religion plays in this primary.

First he visits an evangelical church in the county, and then a gun club. Seeing a young black man in an all-white church and then shooting club is a little unsettling at first. But Younge stays away from depicting anyone as a stereotype, which makes the conversations he has with local residents compelling.

The difference between how these the two groups of conservatives feel about who will get their vote is revealing. Younge comes away with the impression that while you can't "play the game" in this state without being religious, religion will not ultimately decide who the winner will be.

South Carolina Now Sweet Spot for GOP Candidates

It has gained a reputation as the state that answers once and for all the question about who will win the Republican Party presidential nomination. As NPR's political editor Ken Rudin points out in his Political Junkie column, every year since it was established in 1980, the winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the GOP's nomination.

And with Mitt Romney's win in Michigan last night, it's a four-way battle for the state with Romney, John McCain, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee all telling their supporters that they would win the state. The most recent polls show McCain with a slight lead over Huckabee and Romney and Thompson battling it out for third and fourth. But Romney's victory last night may shuffle the deck once again.

(The other candidate in the race, Rudy Giuliani, is concentrating his efforts on the January 29th Florida primary.)

The other thing about the South Carolina primary, as Ken noted in his column, is its history of "dirty tricks." With the actual polls only four days from now, there are new reports of some dubious campaign activities.

As Morning Edition reported today, Huckabee is denying that he had anything to do with the use of a negative campaign tactic known as "push polling" being used on his behalf by an independent group ahead of the South Carolina primary. On the other hand, Huckabee says he can't really force the group to stop because it is against the law for a campaign to have contact with the groups responsible.

"Candidates can't force these ... special interest groups to stop," he said. "I wish we could, because frankly, they're not doing me a favor by carrying out things and tactics that I don't personally agree with."

Meanwhile The State of Columbia, S.C. reports the McCain campaign has angrily denounced a flier from a group called "Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain" which accuses McCain of "betraying other American prisoners of war to save himself while he was held captive in Vietnam." The flyers, which were shown to the paper by the McCain campaign, are being distributed around the state. The flyers have no phone number and the web address associated with the group's name is not accessible.

In 2000 McCain's chances of winning South Carolina were heavily damaged by a push poll that suggested that he had fathered an African-American baby out of wedlock. He and his wife had adopted a baby from Bangladesh.

Presidential Hopefuls Offer Differing Economic Solutions

The U.S. economy is starting to look like Slyvester Stallone at the end of the first "Rocky": pretty beat up. The 'r" word is creeping on to the lips of more economists, the Dow keeps falling, more jobs are disappearing and the Fed is making a lot of noises about lowering interest rates in an effort to bail water out of the boat.

So what are the presidential candidates going to do about it?

David Wessel the economic editor of the Wall Street Journal talked to Renee Montaigne on Morning Edition today about the candidates' plans.

Democrats want to use the goverment's spending and tax cutting power to quickly get money into the system, Wessel says. Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards have put forward economic plans that would spend about $75 billion of governent money to do that. Sen. Obama, on the other hand, would immediately give workers a $250 worker cut and another $250 if the economy continued to weaken.

Republicans would not use that kind of stimulus, Wessel says (although he notes that President Bush is considering this kind of package). They would prefer to keep tax rates low to stimulate the economy. Only former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani is talking about a quick corporate tax cut as a way to stimulate the economy.

None of the ideas put forward by the candidates are new, Wessel notes - many of them have been tried over the past few years. The most interesting, he adds, is probably Sen. Obama who has decided that you have to put money in people's pockets now to get the economy going.

Of course, he has no power to actually do that by himself. There will need to be some "paper shuffling" with Congress in order to make these kind of plans happen.

But, as Renee asked, a year from now economic conditions could be completely different, so why talk about economic plans at all?

Wessel says for two reasons. It can create a consensus. If all the candidates believe something needs to be done, then that could would create a consensus in Congress to act. And second, it does tell us what the candidates would do if they were president, and that's important to know when you're picking one.

11:09 AM ET | 01-16-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Democrats Distance Themselves From Race Talk

Sen. Hillary Clinton extended an olive branch Tuesday night to her two main Democratic opponents and they took it. On matters of race at least. Clinton said that she and her fellow candidates are "all family." Sen. Barack Obama returned her gesture, acknowledging that she and former Sen. John Edwards are committed to racial equality.

Obama and Clinton also shifted some of the blame for the past week's sometimes harsh exchanges over race to "exuberance and sometimes uncontrollable supporters" who say things the candidates themselves do not believe.

But that's were the warm fuzzies stopped.

Obama and Clinton offered widely divergent views of the presidency. Clinton said America needed a leader who knew how the system works, while Obama said he felt a president needed to have a vision of where the country needed to go and wasn't just there to make sure that "the paperwork is being shuffled effectively."

Sharp differences also emerged over the issue of energy. All three candidates said they did not think that Yucca Mountain in Nevada should have a nuclear waste facility. But Clinton challenged Obama on the point, saying that he has accepted sizeable campaign contributions from Exelon Corp., "which has spent millions trying to make Yucca Mountain the waste depository." But Obama retorted that he has never support the Yucca project.

And when they discussed energy and the 2005 energy bill, Edwards turned the tables on Clinton, saying that she has accepted "more money from those people [oil and gas companies] than any candidate, Democrat or Republican."

Through the evening debate, Edwards worked to differentiate himself from the other two candidates, saying that his position on Iraq and the need to withdraw America troops was stronger than theirs. He also pointed to the money the two candidates have raised from drug and insurance companies and pointedly asked them, "Do you think these people expect something, or are they just interested in good government?"

As as NPR's Ina Jaffe reports, another interesting moment came when moderator Brian Williams of NBC asked Obama about Internet rumors that he is a "secret Muslim," said his oath of office on a Koran and won't say the pledged of allegiance.

Obama chuckled as he listened and then said, "let's make clear what the facts are. I am a Christian, I have been sworn in with a bible, I pledge allegiance and lead the pledge of allegiance sometimes in the United States Senate when I've presided."

He called the rumors "lies" and said, "The American people are, I think, smarter than folks give them credit for. "

5:25 AM ET | 01-16-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

January 15, 2008

Romney Takes Michigan Republican Primary

Most major news organizations, including NPR, are predicting that Mitt Romney has won the Michigan Republican primary over Sen. John McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. With about 20 percent of the polls reporting, Romney leads 40 percent to 30 percent.

Information from exit polls showed that Romney won the vote of those people who identified themselves as Republicans and as conservatives by wide margins. McCain won the support of independents and Democrats who crossed over to vote in the GOP race. But in this election they only comprised one-third of the vote. When he won the Michigan primary in 2000, this group made up more than half of those who voted in the primary.

Exit polls also put the voter turnout rate at 20 percent. Inclement weather and a Democratic ballot with just three choices and little or no consequence may have dissuaded some from heading to the polls.

In a sign of the important of the next primary in South Carolina, both McCain and Huckabee went to the Palmetto State to watch the results from Michigan

Update: With 100 percent of the polls reporting, final tallies for the GOP primary were: Mitt Romney - 39 percent, John McCain - 30 percent, Mike Huckabee - 16 percent, Ron Paul - 6 percent, Fred Thompson - 4 percent, Rudy Giuliani - 3 percent.

On the Democratic side, where neither Barack Obama or John Edwards were on the ballot, Hillary Clinton had 55 percent, "Uncommitted" was second with 40 percent and then Dennis Kucinich with 4 percent.

Nevada Supreme Court Rules for NBC Over Kucinich

The Nevada Supreme Court tonight ruled in favor of NBC and said the network did not have to include Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich in its Democratic debate tonight in Las Vegas.

Yesterday a lower court judge had ruled that Kucinich should be included. Kucinich had originally been invited to take part in the debate, but the network later rescinded the invitation when it decided to go only with the top three candidates: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama.

Conservatives Not Happy with McCain's Run

Last week conservatives, led by Rush Limbaugh, were upset about how well former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was doing in the Republican presidential race. But while they might not want him as their candidate, they seemed to think he was at least a decent guy.

The same cannot be said about how many conservative columnists and pundits feel about John McCain. Hugh Hewitt, the syndicated conservative columnist, has rounded up some pretty hard-htting comments about McCain over at his blog on Townhall.com.

John Hawkins, of Right Wing News, writes that McCain is "a Rockefeller Republican, a Country Club Republican, a RINO, or just a toweringly arrogant, out of touch D.C. insider who seems to assume that any position he takes is right solely because he happens to hold it. However, what John McCain cannot fairly be called is a conservative."

National Review Online's Mark Steyn attacks McCain on his economic record, saying McCain "has an almost Edwardsian contempt for capitalism, for the people whose wit and innovation generate the revenue that pay for your average small-state senator's retinue of staffers worthy of a Persian Gulf emir."

Townhall's Patrick Ruffini calls McCain "a tax-loving, free speech-crushing, amnesty-awarding, big government Republican nominee."

Conservatives are having a hard time finding a candidate to back, with three of the prominent Republican candidates - Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and McCain - having what they consider to be dubious conservative credentials.

8:05 PM ET | 01-15-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Clinton. Obama Back Away From "Pose Off"

Maybe it was Sen. Barack Obama calling it all "silliness." Or the calendar, reminding everyone that it was the week that we honor Martin Luther King Jr. Or as our Senior Washington Editor Ron Elving writes, the comment of former President Bill Clinton who told black radio host Tom Joyner that "the only racist remark of the campaign" was the Obama camp calling Hillary Clinton "the senator from Punjab."

Sometimes it takes a little reductio ad absurdum to reveal a pose off for what it is, as Ron points out in his Watching Washington column. Whatever the reason, the dissing Democrats have backed off their over-heated remarks about race and who is or isn't the best candidate to represent the views of African-Americans.

Perhaps we shouldn't have been surprised at this turn of events.

"It may have been inevitable that a presidential season that featured the first truly competitive campaigns by a woman, an African American, a Hispanic American, an Italian American, a Mormon and an ordained Southern Baptist preacher would eventually produce some angry talk about who can and can't be president. In this campaign cycle, we take on not just the glass ceiling but the color bar and the religious test all at once. Two of the candidates are past 70, so let's throw in the age issue, too."

But the candidates seem to be ready to move on. Whether or not the truce will hold is another question. As Ron says, we've seen how tense the Democrats' internal struggle could become in the next few weeks and "how easy it would be for the party to sap its own momentum in a year of historic electoral opportunity."

What's At Stake in Michigan Primary

Despite the importance of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, the Republican Michigan primary has taken on its own sense of urgency as no clear front-runner has emerged from the crowded pack of candidates.

Both John McCain and Mitt Romney must do well in Michigan, NPR's Nancy Cook reports. McCain needs to prove his campaign is bigger than the New Hampshire primary. Romney needs to prove he's still viable, having placed second in Iowa and New Hampshire. But don't count out Mike Huckabee, who the state's evangelical Christian community will come out in force to vote for him. Huckabee is trying to woo them with a message of economic populism, in addition to his religious values.

The economy is the real issue here. Michigan has the country's highest unemployment rate - 7.5 percent.

"In his campaign stops there, McCain has promised to create a job-retraining program centered around community colleges, to replace existing federal programs that he says do not work," Nancy reports. "Romney has suggested that, as a businessman, he has the know-how to revive jobs in that hard-hit state. And Huckabee is running ads in Michigan that use the line he tried in New Hampshire: Voters want a president who reminds them of a co-worker, not the guy who laid them off."

While McCain and Huckabee could withstand a loss, it could finish off Mitt Romney's campaign, even if he stayed in the race until Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Romney has focused all of his energy - and TV ads - on the state where he was born and raised. But like New Hampshire, independents and Democrats can participate in the primary of their choice. And since there really is no Democratic primary - Hillary Clinton is the only major candidate running - that could lure many of these voters over to support McCain, just as they did in 2000 when he also won this state's primary.

Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani aren't considered factors in Michigan. Thompson is spending most of his time in South Carolina, while Giuliani is in Florida.

11:54 AM ET | 01-15-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

John McCain Sees Dead People in Michigan

TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. -- It's primary day in Michigan, and the law says no campaigning within 100 feet of a polling station.

Republican Sen. John McCain (wearing his lucky green sweater) stopped outside the polls at the Grand Traverse Heritage Center. He stood at a legal distance, trying to catch voters as they came out. The cameras were rolling, reporters had their notebooks out. Its just there weren't many voters around.

But McCain did run into Peg Jonkhoff, who approached him on the snow-covered street and told the senator she owns the funeral home up the street. McCain asked if she'd mind giving him a tour. And so everyone went, the senator, his staff, a press entourage, tromping across the street, over a snow bank and up to Reynolds Jonkhoff Funeral Home and Cremation Services.

It's housed in a sprawling Victorian constructed by Traverse City philanthropist Perry Hannah in the late 19th century. Peg told McCain all about the house, including its 10-plus fireplaces. McCain apologized that all these people tracked snow onto her carpet. So much for hanging out at the polls this morning.

McCain headed from Reynolds Jonkhoff to a campaign rally in town, where he told a crowd he'd just been to a funeral home. "People are dying to get in there," he said. Bad jokes aside, McCain's morning proved fruitful. Republican Peg Jonkhoff had been contemplating voting for either McCain or Mitt Romney. But Jonkhoff says she's now backing her unexpected guest.

-- David Greene

Republican Candidates Create Stir at Auto Show

It's a big week in Michigan, one of the most important of the year.

Governor Mitt Romney looks over a Chrysler while visiting the North American International Auto Show at Cobo Hall in Downtown Detroit Monday January 14, 2008. All of the Republican hopefuls visited the auto show the day before the Michigan Primary.

David Gilkey, NPR

And we're not talking about today's Republican and Democrat primaries. This week starts the Detroit Auto Show, when car makers show off their new models for the next year (the public part of the show starts on Jan, 19th.) But that doesn't mean politics and the auto industry are mutually exclusive. The Detroit News reports that the top three Republican candidates - Sen. John McCain, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney - caused "pandemonium" yesterday when they attended the car event at Detroit's Cobo Center.

McCain toured the General Motors display, where he said the new Chevy Malibu, named yesterday as North American Car of the Year, "would be competitive with any foreign car."

MIke Huckabee was also impressed with a Chevrolet product, a full-size Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid SUV. The former Arkansas governor owns a 1995 Chevrolet Silverado pickup with 200,000 miles on it. "Maybe it's time to get a new truck," he said.

Mitt Romney told reporters just before he entered the Ford exhibit that "Detroit's going to lead the world."

McCain and Romney also sparred about federal fuel mileage standards, known as Corporate Average Fuel Standards (CAFE). Romney criticized McCain for his support of the tougher fuel standards recently enacted by Congress, and then in retaliation, the McCain campaign sent out a YouTube video of Romney strongly supporting the need for tougher CAFE rules when he was Massachusetts governor.

Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, who accompanied McCain, said the show was "eye opening" for the candidates. "And it doesn't hurt to be here the day before the primary."

8:00 AM ET | 01-15-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Barack Obama and the Influence of Jeremiah Wright

Sen. Barack Obama has learned a great deal from the Reverend Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. when it comes to crafting a message that Americans can grasp, writes Jonathan Raban of Seattle's alternative weekly, The Stranger. Wright, the pastor of Trinity United Church of Christ on Chicago's far south side, is a fiery pastor who "delivers magnificently cranky sermons on how the 'African diaspora' struggles under the yoke of the 'white supremacists' who run the 'American empire.' "

Obama attends Wright's church. But while Wright's sermon's are fiery and filled with black liberation theology, Rabin writes that Obama has been able to transform Wright's "rhetorical wizardry, " into "an acceptable - even, conceivably, a winning - creed for middle-of-the road white voters."

"While Wright works his magic on enormous congregations, with the basic message of liberation theology, that we are everywhere in chains, but assured of deliverance by the living Christ, Obama, when on form, can entrance largely white audiences with the same essential story, told in secular terms and stripped of its references to specifically black experience," writes Raban.

Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen, however, is not so crazy about Wright's message. He writes that in 1982 Wright founded Trumpet Newsmagazine; his daughters serve as publisher and executive editor. And Cohen takes exception to the magazine's naming of Louis Farrakhan as the winner of the Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Trumpeter Award, saying he was a man who "truly epitomized greatness."

Cohen, however, believes that Farrakhan "epitomizes racism" for most Americans. He adds that he sees nothing in Obama's record that supports anti-Semitism of any kind, or agrees with the award given to Farrakhan. But praise for an "anti-Semitic demagogue is not a minor difference or an intrachurch issue."

"The Obama camp takes the view that its candidate, now that he has been told about the award, is under no obligation to speak out on the Farrakhan matter," writes Cohen. "It was not Obama's church that made the award but a magazine. This is a distinction without much of a difference. And given who the parishioner is, the obligation to speak out is all the greater. He could be the next American president. Where is his sense of outrage?"

But M.J. Rosenberg, writing at TPM Cafe, says Cohen's demand that Obama repudiate his minister is "idiocy." He also writes that in the past few days "few Jews active in the community have not received calls or e-mails telling them that Obama is a threat to the Jews." The Cohen column, he believes, takes these smears "mainstream."

"Cohen must know that but, in his dotage, he has descended into Ed Koch/Jackie Mason land where the Cossacks are always at the gates. This column will be circulated widely and will hurt Obama, perhaps badly."

January 14, 2008

Kucinich Wins Right to be Part of Nevada Debate

No Dennis, no debate.

That's what a judge ruled this evening, saying that if Rep. Dennis Kucinich was not included in Tuesday's Democratic debate in Nevada, then he would issue an injunction to prevent it from taking place. Senior Clark County District Court Judge Charles Thompson sided with Kucinich, who says debate host MSNBC at first invited him to take part and then told him last week he couldn't.

The judge called it a matter of fairness and said Nevada voters will benefit if they hear from more than just Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards.

A lawyer for the network said that MSNBC decided to only go with the top three candidates after the Iowa and New Hampshire results. The debate will take place tomorrow night at 9 pm EST.

And just a reminder. NPR won't be holding a debate with the Republican challengers Wednesday night in South Carolina. We canceled the debate after it became clear that not enough of the candidates would be able to take part because of other time commitments.

Republicans Have a Lot on the Line in Michigan

It's a Mitt Romney versus John McCain race in Michigan. Recent polls have shown that the race is a tight two-man contest, with Mike Huckabee a strong, but not close, third. (Remember, the polls may have been wrong about the Democrats in New Hampshire, but were dead on about the Republicans.)

Yet the person who might have the most at stake, other than Mitt Romney who really can't afford to lose, probably won't even do very well here - Rudy Giuiliani.

Michigan GOP leader Saul Anuzis told Day to Day's Alex Chadwick that the race is mostly concentrating on the economy, and how Michigan can turn its economic situation around.

He also thinks the race has gone from a sprint to a marathon. "I wouldn't be surprised that by Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, you could have three to five candidates that have won in one or more of the states or shown very high in the early states. I don't think we're going to see any candidates drop out until after we see the results of Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

"The dynamics of the race are very different from what most people expected."

And if you could get Rudy Giuliani to give you an answer, he would tell you that he is hoping for Mitt Romney to win tomorrow. That would mean three different winners in the three big early caucuses or primaries. If McCain wins, that would establish him solidly in the front-runner position. If there is no front-runner, than Giuliani has a much better chance to make up ground on the pack, or even take the lead, on Super Tuesday.

4:25 PM ET | 01-14-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Should Paul Cite Declaration Rather Than Constitution?

Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul is well known for his support of the U.S. Constitution as a solution to many of America's ills. One of his most frequent comments is that the country should "just go back to the U.S. Constitution."

But is the Constitution the right document to which we must return?

Not according to Tibor Machan, the R.C. Hoiles Professor of Business Ethics and Free Enterprise at Chapman University and a Hoover Institution research fellow. Machan is a Paul supporter, although he disagrees with him on some of his foreign policy statements. He writes in his column "Orange Grove" in the Orange County Register that he believes that Paul "is the only candidate today who firmly and consistently advocates limited government." But Machan also believes the document that Paul should use as a touch stone is the Declaration of Independence, not the Constitution.

"The Declaration, which is a prelegal, philosophical document, is nearly flawless and would really be very good to go back to - or, rather, to move ahead toward since America never did full justice to it, and it is high time we begin to do so. It is the ideas of the Declaration that have inspired millions of people to head toward America's shores because of its position in the world as the beacon of liberty."

Machan doesn't think that Paul will either win the Republican nomination, or if he ran in independent campaign, the presidency. But he writes that Paul could "spawn a serious political movement and influence the country's direction henceforth" ...

... Also, Day to Day today interviewed Paul's 2008 campaign manager Jesse Benton about a series of newsletters that appeared under Paul's name in the 80s and 90s that contained racist, homophobic and anti-Semitic comments.

"He did not approve what went out and he was very very shocked and very saddened to see what came out years later," says Benton. "He has assumed moral responsibility and says he should have been much more attentive regarding what was going on under his name."

Among other inflammatory comment, the newsletter charged that Dr. Martin Luther King was a pedophile.

"He was not aware that such small-minded things were going on - he was traveling around the country speaking about personal freedom," Benton says.

Presidential Candidates and Their Health Care

Health care is a key issue for most Americans this campaign. In fact, some surveys show that it ranks as a more important issue that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. So after we received an e-mail from a listener about what kind of health care the candidates themselves had, NPR's Julie Rovner decided to find out.

Many of the Republicans and Democrats running for president are sitting members of the U.S. House or Senate - and are thus eligible for taxpayer-subsidized coverage through the Federal Employee Health Benefits Plan. Marilyn Moon, director of the health program for the American Institutes for Research, says the plan is OK, but not "gold-plated."

Most of the Democratic candidates offer their campaign workers health coverage. Dennis Kucinich - the one candidate who advocates the program closest to universal health care - is the exception and says it's just a matter of money when you run a low-budget campaign.

Republicans were more reluctant to talk about their coverage. The campaigns of former New York Mayor Giuliani, former Tenn. Sen. Fred Thompson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney (MA) wouldn't say what kind of coverage the candidates have. (Romney's campaign never bothered to respond to any of Julie's requests for information.) Rep. Ron Paul uses the federal program. Sen. John McCain gets his coverage in three ways.

"I'm eligible for veterans' care, because of having served in the military, and I'm most proud of that," McCain said in an interview. "I have the Senate health-insurance program, and I'm also part of my wife's supplementary insurance that she has."

McCain and Giuliani offer health insurance to their campaign staff; Paul and Calif. Rep Duncan Hunter don't, largely because staffers are volunteers. Huckabee and Romney wouldn't say if they cover their staffs. (Julie's Reporter's Notebook on the teeth she has to pull to get some of this information - or not get it - is worth a read.)

Race Emerges As An Issue in Democratic Primary

Lyndon Johnson and Martin Luther King Jr. didn't like each other much, the history books tell us. But they found a way to work together to make people aware of the need for, and then enact civil rights legislation, that changed the face of America. But now it seems the roles the two men played - and who had the biggest role - has lead to a confrontation some 40 odd years later tinged with overtones of race in the 2008 Democratic primary.

Sena. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama are at odds over a remark that Clinton made last week about the role that Johnson played in getting the civil rights act of 1964 passed. Clinton said King's dream of civil rights would never had become a reality if Jonson hadn't been able to enact the legislation. Obama supporters and as well as several African-American leaders, suggested that Clinton was downplaying the role that King played. All this is happening, of course, just before the primary in South Carolina where African-American voters will play a key role in deciding the victor.

NPR's Audie Cornish reports on how the two camps are snipping at each other over how to interpret the remarks. Then former Sen. John Edwards joined the fray by also taking a shot at Clinton, saying the remarks could only have been made by a Washington politician. Edwards and Obama are both trying to take the mantle of "agent of change" as the non-Washington outsider who can make a difference.

But not all prominent African-Americans side with Obama and Edwards on the issue. Robert Johnson, the founder of Black Entertainment Television blasted Obama in South Carolina,

"And to me, as an African-American, I am frankly insulted that the Obama campaign would imply that we are so stupid that we would think Hillary and Bill Clinton, who have been deeply and emotionally involved in black issues since Barack Obama was doing something in the neighborhood - and I won't say what he was doing, but he said it in the book - when they have been involved."

Many people are interpreting the remark as a slap at Obama's admitted past drug use. But Johnson released a statement saying that he was only talking about Obama's time as "as a community organizer, and nothing else."

January 11, 2008

Good-Bye Small Diners, Hello Airport Tarmacs

Ok, so much for the intimate gatherings in people's living rooms in New Hampshire, or kissing a pig on a family farm in Iowa. From now until Feb.5, not a pig will be kissed - candidates will leave behind the personal politics of the early states for the impersonal, big money TV-ad fueled, three-states-in-one-day national campaigns of the presidential races.

NPR's Senior Washington Editor Ron Elving looked at the advent of the national campaigns today on News and Notes and whose campaigns might be in trouble when the move comes to the bigger stage.

Now that Joe Biden, Christopher Dodd and Bill Richardson have dropped out, the next Democrat on life support is John Edwards. His campaign is in trouble. He has to win in South Carolina to go on to Florida and then to Super Tuesday.

"Money argues against him, momentum argues against him," says Ron

Headed into Michigan, Ron says the Republican to keep an eye on is John McCain. If he can win there, he can look like a totally remade candidate in Republican politics. It's between McCain and Romney, with Huckabee lurking, waiting for South Carolina - whoever wins gets "a really nice boost."

The perils of losing in Michigan are much greater for Romney. Romney built his strategy around winning Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. If he loses all three, you really have to ask "Why are you expecting this guy to win anything?" As Ron puts it, "The sale is not being closed by this master salesman."

Giuliani's Top Aides Give Up Salaries

It seems that the "Feb. 5 — wait for the Big States" strategy of Republican candidate Rudy Guiliani is a questionable idea when it comes to generating momentum, and not so good when it comes to raising money either.

The Washington Post's The Trail reports that a Giuliani aide has confirmed that campaign manager Mike DuHaime and several other top advisers and consultants who make large salaries stopped being paid on Jan. 1. If there is any sign of a campaign in financial trouble, it when the big names forgo salary in order to turn the campaign around.

The Giuliani campaign has staked everything on a victory in Florida on Jan. 29 that will propel them to more victories in the 22 states that vote on Feb. 5. But by keeping a relatively low profile in early states, he has seen media coverage of the campaign focus primarily on John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

Thursday in Florida he worked to get some of that media attention back. Giuliani talked about the need for some type of "federal backstop" to spread insurance risks associated with hurricanes and natural disasters. The idea of a "national catastrophe fund" is much talked about in Florida. The former New York mayor said he would ask his Florida campaign manager, Attorney General Bill McCollum to come up with specific proposals by the end of January.

Kucinich Calls for Recount in New Hampshire

In the past few days, the Internet has been buzzing with rumors and speculation about "irregularities" with the voting in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. But that's all it's been so far. New Hampshire election officials are standing behind the results, despite the difference between what the polls were showing the day before - Barack Obama with a large lead - and the ultimate outcome: a victory for Hillary Clinton.

But now Rep. Dennis Kucinich has entered the fray. The Associated Press reports that he wants a recount to ensure that all ballots in his party's contest were counted. The Ohio congressman cited what he called "serious and credible reports, allegations and rumors" about the integrity of Tuesday results.

Deputy Secretary of State David Scanlan said Kucinich is welcome to have a recount, but that he will have to pay for it. Candidates who lose by 3 percent or less are entitled to a recount for a $2,000 fee. Candidates who lose by more must pay for the full cost. Kucinich's campaign said it was sending the $2,000 fee to start the recount. Scanlan says he stands by Tuesday's results.

Scanlan said that New Hampshire's use of electronic voting machines is different than states like Ohio or Florida. The electronic machines are not linked, and all the electronic votes are backed by paper ballots.

"Perhaps the best thing that could happen for us is to have a recount to show the people that ... the votes that were cast on election day were accurately reflected in the results. And I have every confidence that will be the case."

Another important factor when looking at the possibility of manipulation of the vote is that the exit polls exactly matched the final totals.

If there had been substantial differences between the tallies and what people thought they had done (exit polls), you could at least imagine some kind of skulduggery. But if the exit polls match the tallies, you would have to theorize that after rigging or mishandling the vote, the same malefactors somehow did the same to the exit polls.

Fred Thompson Fights For His Campaign in Debate

The reviews are in from the Republican debate held in South Carolina last night, and the majority opinion is that Fred Thompson came out swinging and ultimately had the best night of his campaign so far.

Republican presidential hopeful, actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson speaks during a Fox News television debate in Myrtle Beach, 10 January 2008.

EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images

Jim Geraghty at The Campaign Spot on National Review Online gave a gold medal to Thompson. "This performance was so commanding, I wanted his last answer to echo back to the lights in the back of the auditorium, blow out all the lamps and spotlights, for the theme to "the Natural" to play, and for him to trot around the stage in slow motion while sparks showered down in the background."

NPR's Scott Horsley, who called the debate a largely "polite" affair, also noted that Thompson was particularly tough on former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, trotting out the "l" word to describe his actions.

"He would be a Christian leader, but he would also bring about liberal economic policies and liberal foreign policies," Thompson said of Huckabee. "He believes we have an arrogant foreign policy in the tradition of 'blame America first.' That's not the model of the Reagan coalition. That's the model of the Democratic party."

Andrew Sullivan of The Daily Dish at The Atlantic wrote that " ... the big news was that Fred Thompson is alive. He came out swinging against Huckabee in ways that frankly surprised me. Funny at times, acerbic at others, he seemed much more comfortable as a campaigner."

(Thompson also picked up an endorsement today from Human Events, a leading conservative publication.)

But Jonathon Martin of Politico had a different take - as good a performance as Thompson gave last night, Sen. John McCain emerged from the debate "unscathed ... with the same designation he had upon arrival: front-runner."

Clinton Eyes Hispanic Voters in Nevada

Sen. Hillary Clinton, fresh off her victory in the New Hampshire primary - and more or less ignoring the one in Michigan next week - has set her sights on Nevada. And now that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson has dropped out of the Democratic race, Clinton thinks she can pick up a lot of support in the Hispanic community.

Nevada is the first state to hold a caucus or primary in the West. The Reno Gazette-Journal reports that many of the state's Democrats were disappointed that Richardson dropped out of the race, since he was seen as the closest thing the state had to a "favorite son."

"He was an inspiration to a lot of Latinos in getting in the political process, said Tony Sanchez, a Las Vegas Democrat."He has energized the Latino base to a great extent, and his impact will be felt for years to come."

NPR's Carrie Kahn reports that Clinton started her campaign swing in Nevada in a Latino community before she went to a Mexican restaurant. And she was asked, of course, about her position on illegal immigrants in the U.S. She said she would work hard to enact comprehensive immigration reform.

When a man shouted through an opening in the wall of the restaurant that his wife was illegal, Clinton replied, to cheers, that "No woman is illegal."

Clinton is going to Los Angeles today to make a major economic speech.

January 10, 2008

Ron Paul Newsletters Become Campaign Fodder

Dave Weigel, the associate editor of Reason Magazine, warned back in May of 2007 that if Ron Paul started to generate any kind of a buzz in the Republican presidential primaries, someone would bring up the newsletters.

In the 80s and 90s, Paul was involved with newsletters (Ron Paul's Freedom Report, Ron Paul Political Report, The Ron Paul Survival Report) that regularly made racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic remarks. They were first reported by the Houston Chronicle in 1996, and have been circulating around the Internet ever since.

Recently New Republic reporter James Kirchick wrote about the newsletters, and talked about them today with Alex Chadwick on Day to Day.

When Paul was first confronted with these comments, Ed Morrisey of the Captain Quarter's blog said he explained them this way: "They were never my words, but I had some moral responsibility for them . . . I actually really wanted to try to explain that it doesn't come from me directly, but they campaign aides said that's too confusing. 'It appeared in your letter and your name was on that letter and therefore you have to live with it.' "

In response to the New Republic article, Paul's website contains the following statement: "The quotations in The New Republic article are not mine and do not represent what I believe or have ever believed. I have never uttered such words and denounce such small-minded thoughts ... This story is old news and has been rehashed for over a decade. ... For over a decade, I have publicly taken moral responsibility for not paying closer attention to what went out under my name."

Kirchick wrote in his piece, anticipating the "I didn't write it" explanation: "But, whoever actually wrote them, the newsletters I saw all had one thing in common: They were published under a banner containing Paul's name, and the articles (except for one special edition of a newsletter that contained the byline of another writer) seem designed to create the impression that they were written by him - and reflected his views. What they reveal are decades worth of obsession with conspiracies, sympathy for the right-wing militia movement, and deeply held bigotry against blacks, Jews, and gays. In short, they suggest that Ron Paul is not the plain-speaking antiwar activist his supporters believe they are backing--but rather a member in good standing of some of the oldest and ugliest traditions in American politics."

Michigan Democrats Want "Uncommitted" Votes

In Michigan, the uncommitted campaign is starting to pick up steam. That's right, top Democrats in Michigan are out there urging residents to vote "uncommitted."

We mentioned the other day that the decision of Barack Obama and John Edwards to leave their names off the state's primary ballot (Bill Richardson did as well, but he will be gone after today) means that Hillary Clinton is the only big name candidate still on the roster. Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are also there, but are not seen as serious threats to Clinton.

Obama and Edwards left their names off the ballot at the request of the Democratic National Committee because Michigan jumped its primary ahead of other states without permission of the national party. Clinton opted to stay on the ballot but will not campaign in Michigan.

The uncommitted vote, however, is a different kettle of fish. The Detroit News reports that U.S. Sen. Carl Levin and state Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer said Michigan Dems can still have an indirect say in the nominating process if they check the "uncommitted" box on the ballot. While there is a space on the ballot for write-ins, candidates must authorize these campaigns and Obama and Edwards have not.

"If 'uncommitted' draws at least 15 percent of the vote in a congressional district, delegates not bound to any candidate could be sent to the national convention, possibly enabling Obama and Edwards supporters to play a role in the nomination."

There is even a newly formed group known as the Detroiters for Uncommitted Voters who plan to canvas door-to-door in the few days before next week's primary, and ask people to not stay at home, or vote Republican but to vote ... uncommitted.

The News reports that the Obama and Edwards campaigns are now urging their supporters to vote uncommitted, after earlier indications they would not do so. Election experts have said that if Clinton doesn't get at least 60 percent of the votes cast, it would be a black eye for her campaign.

Giuliani Takes Whack at Media in New Ad

Rudy Giuliani has decided to focus on a new target in his effort to finally win a primary, in this case in Florida. Instead of attacking John McCain, Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, Giuliani has targeted the cable TV networks - in particular pundits like Chris Matthews, Bill O'Reilly, Keith Obermann and Juan Williams - in his new ad, which his campaign is calling the "Superbowl" ad.

The ad, which comes a few days after many media pundits took a beating for being so wrong about Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the New Hampshire Democratic primary, knocks them for treating politics like they were handicapping the Superbowl, when what the country really needs is not their opinions but leadership.

Here is the text of the ad:

"With pundits and politicos handicapping the campaign like the Super Bowl, it's easy to lose sight of what's at stake. An economy in peril. A country at war. A future uncertain. The media loves process. Talking heads love chatter. But Florida has a chance to turn down the noise. And show the world that leadership is what really matters."

After leading national polls for months, Giuliani has fallen behind fellow Republicans Mike Huckabee and John McCain in many surveys. Meanwhile in Florida, which many see as his firewall state, he has seen his lead of as much as 20 points drop to four or five.

Obama Picks Up Kerry Endorsement

He might have lost the New Hampshire primary, but it doesn't appear to have slowed down Sen. Barack Obama.

Yesterday he picked up the endorsement of two key unions in Nevada (the Culinary Workers Union, and the Service Employees International Union) ahead of its Jan. 19th primary. And today Sen. John Kerry announced his support for Obama during an appearance with him this morning at a rally at the College of Charleston, South Carolina.

The 2004 nominee argued that Obama can best unite the country and has the potential to create transformational change, the person said.

The Associated Press reports that Kerry's endorsement of Obama is a "slap" at his former running mate, John Edwards. And it's also a bit of pay back to Clinton for chiding him in 2006 for his failed joke about people who don't go to school go on to "get stuck in Iraq." Kerry apparently felt Clinton was piling on and didn't appreciate her adding to the criticism he was already receiving.

Sen. Ted Kennedy, perhaps the most prominent Massachusetts Democrat yet to make an endorsement, has said he will not announce support for a candidate anytime soon.

Clinton 'Moment' Questioner Still Backed Obama

It has already become, as Renee Montagne described it today on Morning Edition, "a classic campaign moment": Hillary Clinton almost tearing up with emotion when answering a question at a coffee shop in New Hampshire. Many pundits, who at first dismissed it as a sign of weakness, now see it as a symbol of a dramatic shift in the Clinton campaign and the way Sen. Clinton presents herself in public.

But in that way that reality has of standing politics on its head, it turns out that the woman who addressed the question to Clinton that sparked "the moment" was not impressed by her response and ended up voting for her main rival, Sen. Barack Obama.

Marianne Pernold Young, 64, a freelance photographer from Portsmouth, N.H., told ABC News that she was put off by how quickly the New York senator regained her "political posture" only seconds after her emotional response.

"I went to see Hillary. I was undecided and I was moved by her response to me," Pernold Young said in a telephone interview with ABC News. "We saw 10 seconds of Hillary, the caring woman."

"But then when she turned away from me, I noticed that she stiffened up and took on that political posture again," she said. "And the woman that I noticed for 10 seconds was gone."

Young said she ended up voting for Obama.

Regardless, it appears that those ten seconds was enough to help spark a major revival in Clinton's fortunes.

Report: Richardson to Drop Out of Democratic Race

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will drop out of the Democratic presidential race, according to two people close to the governor with knowledge of the decision. They spoke late Wednesday on condition of anonymity in advance of the governor's remarks.

The Associated Press reports that Richardson would announce his plans Thursday. His office had no official comment on the report.

As the Los Angeles Times notes, there had always been speculation that Richardson was not really aiming for the presidency, as much as a another top position, such as vice president or secretary of state. Richardson's terms as governor expires in 2010.

But not everyone thinks that Richardson will actually drop out. Anjeanette Damon of the Reno Gazette-Journal, writes that when the head of the Richardson volunteer committee in Carson City, Nevada sent out an e-mail to volunteers that the candidate was quitting the race, he immediately received an e-mail from Richardson's Nevada communications director, Josh McNeil.

"He said call me, ASAP," Rex Harold said. "Then he says, 'You just gave away all our Carson supporters. It's not true. He has not pulled out of the race. It's not true."

But when reached later, McNeil declined to comment on the AP story, and said there would be an announcement today.

January 9, 2008

'Beauty Parlor Moms' Will Decide South Carolina

Andy Gobeil, host of South Carolina's "The Big Picture," a weekly news and public affairs program, calls them the "beauty parlor moms" - older African-American women - and he tells Talk of the Nation's Neil Conan they will decide the Democratic primary in South Carolina.

He's not the only one with this opinion. During the discussion of the New Hampshire primary results last night on CNN, Donna Brazile (chair of the Democratic National Party Voting Rights Institute) also said that women in South Carolina will decide the race between Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton.

"I believe the middle-aged, African-American female will be the decider in this election," Joe Werner, executive director of the South Carolina Democratic Party told the Chicago Tribune,"It will be the 45- to 65-year-old woman who goes to church and listens to the gospel stations we have down here, who will decide the election. You can count on them to show up on Election Day."

It's not an easy call to pick a favorite of this group. Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have long been popular with the African-American community. But as Clarence Page of the Tribune also noted on Talk of the Nation, African-Americans have increasingly been rallying to the cause of Barack Obama in much the same way women came back to Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.

Romney Looks to Michigan to Save His Campaign

Novelist William Faulkner once said you can't go home again. But going home may be Mitt Romney's last hope.

The former governor of Massachusetts was born and raised in Michigan, the site of the next Republican primary. His father was once the state's governor who also ran for president. (Interesting fact - George Romney was one of the few men to run for U.S. president who was born outside the U.S. He was born in Mexico, but to American parents and so was immediately considered a U.S. citizen.) And so Romney hopes his old home state can help revive his faltering campaign.

"I think I can connect with Michigan," Romney said yesterday, before his loss to McCain. "Michigan is very personal for me." Romney said he plans to stay in the race at least through Feb. 5, when 22 states hold primaries.

Michigan could be a race between Romney and Sen. John McCain. The Detroit Free Press reports that both men plan "to spend much of the next six days shuttling between western and southeastern Michigan for rallies, town halls and speeches." Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has a speech at the Detroit Economic Club on Friday, which is his only scheduled stop in the state so far. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is skipping the state altogether to campaign in Florida and South Carolina. Texas Rep. Ron Paul's website does not currently list any events featuring Paul in Michigan over the next week.

Romney did get an endorsement today from a prominent Michigan businessman and personality. NPR's Scott Horsley reports that Tom Monaghan announced that he is supporting Romney. Monaghan is the founder of Domino's Pizza, Ave Maria College (a conservative Catholic liberal arts institution), and former owner of the Detroit Tigers baseball team. For Monaghan, a prominent conservative Catholic to endorse Romney, a Mormon, is a significant boost for his campaign.

Now, as Scott observes, if he can only promise to help deliver the election to Romney in 30 minutes or less ...

Update: The Associated Press reports that Romney has pulled his advertising from South Carolina and Florida in order to focus more on Michigan. "We feel the best strategy is to focus our paid messaging in Michigan," Romney spokesman Kevin Madden said Wednesday.

Supreme Court Hears Arguments On Voter IDs

Does voter fraud exist? Quite a few Republicans think it does, and in many of the states where they control the levers of government, they have enacted voter identification laws. But repeated studies have shown that the problem does not exist.

Even in Indiana, the state that has the voter ID law that will be the subject of the hearing at the U.S. Supreme Court today (the consolidated cases of Crawford v. Marion County Election Board and Indiana Democratic Party v. Rokita), its Attorney General argues that it's mainly a preventative measure, since Indiana has had almost no cases of voter fraud to speak of.

As NPR's Nina Totenberg reports, a study done by a Democrat and a Republican working together found that while there is voter fraud, almost none of it actually happens in the precincts where people actually vote.

But 24 states have voter ID law and Indiana has the strictest: it requires anyone voting in person to present a current government photo ID. Indiana Solicitor General Thomas Fisher will tell the Supreme Court justices Wednesday that law is necessary to promote public confidence in the system.

Countering that argument will be lawyer Paul Smith. "Under the Supreme Court's doctrine, the fundamental right to vote is protected from laws which look like legitimate regulations but don't actually serve any purpose while imposing significant burdens," Smith says.

The state, however, argues that all voting regulations impose some inconvenience.

Update: The Scotusblog reports that the justices "studiously avoiding almost all mention that it was examining a thoroughly partisan political battle .."

"Only two Justices -- Ruth Bader Ginsburg and John Paul Stevens -- even hinted at the real-world fact that the photo ID law in Indiana is at the heart of a bitter, ongoing contest reaching well beyond Indiana. It is a dispute between Republicans worried over election fraud supposedly generated by Democrats to pad their votes, and Democrats worried over voter suppression supposedly promoted by Republicans to cut down their opposition."

Pollsters Right On for GOP, Dead Wrong for Democrats

Aside from a select few (including NPR's Senior Washington Editor Ron Elving, who last week said it would be difficult for Obama to repeat his Iowa success), not many political pundits and media-types had predicted that Sen. Hillary Clinton would win last night's Democratic New Hampshire primary.

But it was pollsters in particular who looked bad. Not a single poll taken in the last two days before the primary had Clinton winning. Yet the pollsters were much more accurate about the Republican contest - most showed McCain with a three- to five-point lead. (His current total is 37 to 32 percent.) And they even got totals for Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul and Fred Thompson correct almost to the decimal point.

The Washington Post's The Trail offers some explanations for the discrepancy in the two sets of results: the "likely voter" modeling, with pollsters perhaps over-counting the boost of enthusiasm among Obama supporters following his victory in Iowa; and independents looked to have opted at the last minute to participate in the Republican primary, depriving Obama of crucial voters.

Maybe it was the role that being the first name on the ballot plays. In previous years, the state rotated candidates names on the ballot from precinct to precinct - in one voting place Obama might be first, in another it would be Bill Richardson. But that was not the model that was used Monday night. For the first time, the names were in alphabetical order in every precinct - so Clinton's name was always first.

"Stanford Professor Jon Krosnick, a survey specialist and expert witness in a lawsuit about ballot order in New Hampshire, has estimated a three percentage point or greater bounce for a big name candidate appearing high on the ballot," write Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta at The Trail. "Therefore, if pre-election polls randomized candidate names, as most do, they would have underestimated Clinton's support by at least three points."

It's an interesting theory, but most polls had Obama winning by far more than three points - although that ended up being the difference between him and Sen. Clinton. Whatever the reason, you can bet there will be lots of discussion about the pollsters' failure in the next few days.

Update: Karl Rove had some interesting observations to make about polling in primaries on Tell Me More.

"... maybe we'd better not look at the recent polls. Maybe we ought to start not by killing the lawyers but by killing the exit pollsters. ... Its' very tough to poll a primary. We've endowed these polls running up to the primaries with a false scientific precision they simply don't have."

Women Voters Propel Clinton to Victory

A poll by Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby had Sen. Hillary Clinton down by 13 points as late as Monday night. In fact, not a single poll taken over the last two days before the primary showed Clinton with a chance at victory. So how did she do it?

NPR's Mara Liasson says the main reason can be summed up in one word: women. Unlike Iowa, where a majority of women supported Barack Obama, women came back to Clinton in droves. She won the support of women 47 percent to 34.

Obama overwhelmingly held a lead among independents and first-time voters, although the number of first-time primary goers was up only slightly from 2004. Obama also won the youth vote: the 18 percent of the New Hampshire electorate under 30, while Clinton won among voters age 45 and older.

But Clinton was also ahead of Obama - 45 percent to 34 percent - among those who said they were registered Democrats. Those voters made up a majority -- 54 percent -- of all respondents.

And Clinton had another factor in her corner that was mentioned by several experts when asked to explain her victory. The work of former governor and now senate candidate Jean Shaheen, who Howard Fineman of NBC News calls "one the best organizers the Democratic Party has seen."

Then there was "the moment" Monday when Clinton seemed to almost tear up when talking to a group of voters in a New Hampshire coffee shop as she talked about her feelings about the campaign. (As NPR's Senior Washington Editor Ron Elving says, it will be a moment long -debated.) Many media pundits attacked her for the display of emotion, saying it made her look weak. But women seemed to respond to Clinton (one told NPR's Melissa Block last night it was the reason she switched from supporting Obama to Clinton), seeing it as a genuine display of passion and emotion about becoming president.

But as Ron says, maybe it wasn't so much the actual moment itself, as much as it was the symbol of a larger change in the Cinton campaign approach.

January 8, 2008

NPR Predicts Win for Hillary Clinton

NPR's decision desk has declared Sen. Hillary Clinton the winner of the Democratic primary in New Hampshire, defying polls that had showed her behind in recent days by 10 points or more. After a disappointing third place finish in Iowa last week, Clinton had seemed at times in disarray as she retooled her message and her campaign -- but today her supporters came home to her and Barack Obama failed to draw the share of independent voters he had been counting on.

With two thirds of the polls reporting, Clinton has a three-point lead (about five thousand votes) which has held up pretty consistently all night.

The Associated Press and MSNBC also gave the nod to Clinton.

Earlier in the evening, Sen. John McCain was declared the winner of the Republican poll.

Record Turnout for New Hampshire Primary

Give residents of New Hampshire a little good weather and a couple of exciting contests and they show up for their primary in record numbers.

Election experts are predicting a turnout of 500,000 people to vote - 280,000 for Democrats and 220,000 for Republicans. It's a 48 percent turnout of all those eligible to vote in the state. All these totals break records set in 2000 of 430,000 votes cast and a 42 percent turnout.

9:53 PM ET | 01- 8-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Clinton Clings to Small Lead in Primary Fight

The lead is growing smaller.

Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama is now three percentage points, 39 to 36, with almost 50 percent of the polls reporting.

Meanwhile, in a triumphant victory speech, John McCain told a crowd of cheering supporters that "We sure showed them what a comeback looks like." Earlier this summer McCain had been completely written of by political experts and the media. McCain said he was headed for Michigan, the next state to hold a primary, and he was looking for victory there as well.

Trying to put a positive spin on a significant loss, Mitt Romney said he now had "two silver and a gold" in primaries so far. He congratulated McCain for a well-fought contest.

9:35 PM ET | 01- 8-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Clinton Moves to Small Lead in New Hampshire

Only a day or two ago, pundits were speculating that Hillary Clinton had lost all her momentum and would be wiped out again by Barack Obama.

But New Hampshire voters are always up for a surprise.

Obama still might win the Democratic primary in New Hampshire (guests interviewed on NPR's live election coverage are saying that exit polls predict a victory for him tonight) but with 14 percent of the polls reporting, Clinton has a five-point lead, 40 to 35 percent.

NPR's decision desk has already declared Sen. John McCain the winner of the Republican primary in New Hampshire.

Both parties - the Democrats in particular - had large turnouts. Independents overwhelmingly voted for Democrats this primary.

Early Results Show Tight Democratic Race, McCain Victory

Early results from New Hampshire - about 11 percent of polls reporting - show a tight race between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama. Currently Clinton has 38 percent and Obama has 36 percent. Former Sen. John Edwards is in third with 17 percent.

On the Republican side, NPR's political team has declared Sen. John McCain the winner of the New Hampshire primary. Currently he is leading former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, 37 percent to 28 percent. Mike Huckabee is third with 12 percent, then Rudy Giuliani with nine percent and Ron Paul with eight percent. Former Sen. Fred Thompson has one percent.

Two N.H. Towns Have Record of Picking Winners

If you're looking for an early sign of who might win tonight's primaries, keep your eyes on the results from two towns in New Hampshire: Epping and Newmarket are part of an extraordinary streak - for half a century they've been dead on in forecasting the winners of the state's presidential primary.

Epping has forecast the Democratic result, while Newmarket has been prescient about the Republican Party.

Dan Gorenstein reports for Day to Day that Mark Valone of Epping speculates that his granddad, Thomas Fecto, had something to do with Epping's ability to pick a winner. From the 1930s to the 1970s, Thomas Fecto ran a popular country store.

"Anytime any Democrat was going to do anything in Epping, Tom Fecto would be the person they would talk to first," New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner says. "He was Mr. Democrat of Epping."

Valone says his grandfather had a sharp political eye. "He supported Kennedy in '60, Johnson in '64 and '68. He supported Muskie in '72, Carter in '76 and '80. (In) '84, I don't know how he went. In '88, I know he was a big Dukakis fan," Valone recalls.

The streak is harder to explain in Newmarket, where historically Republicans make up an extremely small voting bloc. In 1952, when the record started, only 185 of them voted out of more than 1,700 ballots cast. But time and time again, this small group has captured the prevailing attitudes of state Republicans.

The law of averages will catch up to the two towns sooner or later - in the past 20 years, 52 other bellwether cities and towns have dropped by the wayside. But residents hope their knack for predicting winners holds up at least for one more round.

"I don't know whether they will keep their record. They've been pretty good at keeping it, so I wouldn't want to bet too much against it," Gardner says.

6:46 PM ET | 01- 8-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Obama Becomes Target of RNC E-Mails

Sometimes you can tell how well a candidate is doing by looking at the people attacking him or her.

If you want a sign of just how well Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is doing in the Democratic presidential primaries, consider this: he has become the target of many more attack e-mails from the Republican National Committee.

Political reporters who receive e-mails from the RNC note that for months the target of the Republicans' attack squad had been New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. But that's changed in the past week. Now RNC e-mails are now also aiming at Obama's record, including his statement that he was "broke" seven years ago. The Chicago Tribune's The Swamp notes that RNC spokesman Danny Diaz, a veteran message warrior from the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign, noted in a message that Obama was partner at a law firm back then [it seems that Obama never actually became a partner, but had an "of counsel" status that allowed him to work part-time with the firm when he wasn't in the Illinois Senate] : "Should Senator Obama make it to the general election," he wrote, "I wonder if voters will have an issue with his credibility on economic/budget issues?"

And, in an e-mail that was to be expected, Diaz also attacked him for being a liberal.

The new focus of the RNC seems to say that it thinks Obama now has at least a good a chance as Clinton to be the Democratic that Republicans will be facing in the fall.

Conservatives Worried at Rise of Huckabee

Be afraid, be very afraid.

That's how some conservatives feel about the success of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Day to Day host Alex Chadwick talked to Jonah Goldberg, one of the main "Huckabashers" at the conservative National Review Online.

"We've seen this before," says Goldberg. "Remember that scene in Jaws II where Roy Schreider as the sheriff tells the town that they've got to do something, because he's not going through that [another shark frenzy] again." That's how Goldberg feels about Huckabee. He says that Huckabee is another version of the "compassionate conservatism" of George W. Bush in 2000.

Goldberg says at base level, compassionate conservatism is a slander of conservatism. And it equates compassion with how much money the government spends on something. Fortunately, Goldberg adds, with Bush it was mostly a marketing slogan. But he's worried that Huckabee might really mean it.

"It's compassionate conservatism on steroids," says Goldberg. "What ever is good, government should do." Goldberg worries that Huckabee is aiming for a right-wing style of social democracy. "That's something I just don't want to see happen. It's a direction I don't want it to go."

Goldberg admits that Huckabee may be best politician out there for the GOP this cycle. (He joked that there must be something in the water in Hope, Arkansas, home to both Huckabee and Bill Clinton.) But Goldberg says he really isn't interested in what's best for the Republican Party, but in what's best for the conservative movement and America.

And in his opinion, it's not Mike Huckabee.

N.H. Primary More Rambunctious This Year

He's back. The anti-global warming snowman is in New Hampshire. It may not be the same snowman we saw on the CNN-YouTube debate, but it's safe to say that snowmen worldwide are worried about the planet getting warming.

And he's just one of the characters that can be found in New Hampshire these days. The once relatively relaxed New Hampshire primary has a "festive" atmosphere this year. Perhaps it's the energetic surge of Barack Obama, or the closeness of the Republican race, or the immediacy created by the primary's new closeness to the Iowa caucuses. But as NPR's Linda Wertheimer reports this year's primary is not quite like primaries past.

Not all of New Hampshire's residents are enamored with the increased excitement. Many remember a time when they could talk more at length with candidates, and see them more than once. Politicians seeking the White House regularly visited small, informal house dinner parties. But these days, the events tend to be larger with more people, far less personal.

And they worry that the new voting schedule doesn't give them time to reflect on the candidates.

But other folks are quite happy with the new look primary and the increase in visitors. Such as the restaurant owner who devised the Huckaburger (whole wheat, spinach and bison - just the burger for people watching their weight, like the former Arkansas governor). He even sells t-shirts that have an appropriately political feeling - such as "It's the Beer, Stupid."

James Carville would approve.

The Explosion of Vote-By-Mail Ballots

Imagine as a candidate being able to wrap up a supporter's vote a month early, eliminating the possibility of them changing their minds. Well, it's starting to become a reality in many states. Thousands of voters have already cast primary ballots in Florida, Missouri, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. And Californians will receive their ballots this week, giving them almost an entire month to vote.

Web site electionline.org tracks these electoral changes and it says that thirty-one U.S. states now let voters cast ballots in person before election day and 29 allow mail-in balloting - with no excuses required. Reuters reports that more than 40 percent of Californians are expected to cast their ballots before the actual Feb. 5 primary date.

It's a trend that favors candidates with lots of funds at their disposal. Candidates like Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama run ads and phone banks for weeks in advance of the poll date, trying to get voters to cast their early ballots for them. But running ads and phone banks costs lots of money, meaning candidates like John Edwards, or Mike Huckabee on the Republican side, face more of an uphill battle to attract these early voters.

This voteballoting also helps create the opportunity for early exit polls. The votes don't actually get counted until election day, but there is nothing to stop candidates or new organizations from calling people who've already voted and asking them for whom they voted.

Final N.H. Polls Show Obama, McCain With Leads

Two final polls out this morning are showing that Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain have solid leads as residents of New Hampshire head to the polls.

A Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows Obama with a 13-point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, 42 to 29 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is third with 17 percent. McCain had a nine-point lead over former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, 36 to 27 percent. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is third with ten points, but is closely followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at nine points.

The rolling poll of 862 likely Democratic voters and 859 likely Republican voters was taken Saturday through Monday. It has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Obama with a nine-point lead over Clinton, 39 to 30 percent. Clinton leads among Democratic voters, while Obama has a wide lead among independents.

The survey of 1,774 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted Jan. 5-7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the poll is +/- 2 percentage points.

Obama, McCain Capture Dixville Notch Vote

As we mentioned in the previous piece on Dixville Notch, not only is it the first-in-the-nation to vote on general election day, but the first to vote on primary day as well. And at midnight the residents of the tiny community got together to cast their ballots.

Barack Obama got seven of the ten ballots cast for Democrats in the village, John Edwards two and Bill Richardson one. On the Republican side, John McCain got four votes, Mitt Romney two and Rudy Giuliani one.

In Hart's Location - the other New Hampshire community that has a friendly competition with Dixville notch for the first voting crown - Obama received nine votes, Hillary Rodham Clinton received three and John Edwards received one. For Republicans, McCain received six, Mike Huckabee got five, Ron Paul received four and Mitt Romney one.

New Hampshire law allows communities of fewer than 100 residents to close polls once voting is over and announce the results. And Dixville Notch residents are taking no chances that nearby Hart's Location will steal back the title it lost in 1960. Each of the 13 people who voted at midnight at The Balsams Hotel in Dixville Notch had their own voting booth. Four other ballots were cast by mail. The balloting was over within minutes as 12 Independents, 3 Republicans and 2 Democrats voted.

6:21 AM ET | 01- 8-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

January 7, 2008

How Dixville Notch Got to Vote First

In Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the local residents take their status as the first community in the U.S. to vote on election day quite seriously. (The community is also the first to vote on the state's primary day.) But did you know that they achieved this honor because of a competitive news wire photographer?

Boston.com has a great video piece on the "Legend of Dixville Notch" that tells the story of how in this small community of less than a dozen people became famous in 1960. United Press International chief photographer Don Robinson convinced the owner of the local hotel, Neil Tillotson, to hold the first vote in the nation.

And in order to make sure that Dixville Notch voted first and beat his journalist competitor, The Associated Press (whose photographers were gathered at the previous first-in-the nation site Hart's Location, New Hampshire) Robinson moved the hands on the clock in the hotel where the voting took place five minutes ahead.

"Those were the kind of things you did back in the golden days of journalism," says retired UPI photographer Dan Wolfe. "It was just a great scam."

8:17 PM ET | 01- 7-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Could Uncommitted Vote Best Clinton in Michigan?

Is it possible to lose an election when you're the only major candidate running? It may be heard to believe, but the Clinton camp is afraid that this just might happen to them in Michigan.

The Detroit News reports that Michigan Democrats could turn out in larger numbers than expected for the presidential primary on January 15. But Sen. Hillary Clinton is the only 'major' candidate whose name will be on the ballot. (Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich are also on the ballot, even though Dodd has dropped out of the race.)

Sen. Barack Obama, former Sen. John Edwards, Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Bill Richardson previously withdrew their names because Michigan moved up its primary despite being told not to do so by the Democratic National Party. And they did not file by this past Friday's deadline to allow their write-in votes to be counted.

But according the News, more Democrats than Republicans could turn-up to vote in the primary even without a real contest. (Another sign of how energized Democratic voters are?) State Democratic officials, including party Chairman Mark Brewer, have encouraged Democrats to vote, even if their candidate isn't on the ballot. Supporters of Edwards and Obama could mark the "uncommitted" portion of the ballot. If 15 percent of Democrats statewide or in any congressional district vote "uncommitted," the state could send some delegates to the national convention who would be free to vote for any candidate they wanted to support.

(Although the national party said it would strip Michigan of its delegates if it didn't move its primary back, Brewer stuck to his guns and said the state party would still send delegates and he expected them to be eventually seated despite the penalty.)

And there in lies the problem for Clinton. What happens if there are more "uncommitted" votes than votes for her? Detroit News pollster Ed Sarpolus said Friday that Clinton would get a black eye if she gets anything less than 60 percent of the vote.

Duncan Hunter Decides Not to Drop Out of Race

The reports of Duncan Hunter's demise have been greatly exaggerated. And he snookered all the major networks as he let them know he isn't dead yet.

You would have needed a calculator to count the members of the media who assumed that when the Hunter campaign said it would make a "major announcement" at 2 p.m. today, he was going drop out of the Republican presidential race.

Hunter, however, took the opportunity to rip ABCNews and Fox News for excluding him from their debates this past weekend. He pointed out that he had valuable insights that he could had contributed to the topics discussed. But "some knucklehead ... in a third- or fourth-story glass office" made the decision to keep him out. And he pointed out that at the time of the debate, he had actually won a delegate in Wyoming, which gave him more delegates than other McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson, and Huckabee - all of whom participated in the debate.

Then he noted that "Fox keeps asking me when I'm going to drop out ... well, I'm not going to drop out."

You could sense cable TV news executives jaws dropping all over the U.S. Hunter had allowed them to think what they wanted to think, and got national airtime to tell them the exact opposite.

Now that was a campaign tactic to remember.

Paul Campaign Spreads to Eight More States

You just knew with all that money he raised in the 4th quarter of 2007 Ron Paul would start to spread his libertarian message around a bit. And now comes word that the Paul campaign is running ads on radio stations in California, Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, North Dakota, Louisiana, Maine and Florida this week.

The ad looks at Paul's life and his longtime opposition to increased government spending. Here's the text:

"Who is Ron Paul, the Republican candidate for president? Ron Paul served his country as a flight surgeon after the Cuban missile crisis. As a young doctor, Ron Paul worked nights in the emergency room of an inner-city hospital, taking care of everyone, whether they could pay or not. As an ob/gyn, Ron Paul delivered over 4,000 babies. Dr. Ron Paul knows our healthcare system needs real change, where patients and doctors are in charge, not big corporations or government bureaucrats.

"As a congressman for almost 2 decades, Ron Paul knows our Constitution is there to protect our freedom and limited government. He has never voted for a tax increase or an unbalanced budget. His record clearly shows he will cut taxes and stop runaway spending. People who know him call him the taxpayer's best friend."

Paul knows he can't win New Hampshire (and none of the polls show him challenging front runners Mitt Romney or John McCain), but he hopes a good showing there will help in in states like South Carolina. Most polls show him around eight percent, but beating both Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson.

Writers Strike Boon for Candidates

The national writers' strike may have zinged many people's favorite programs and given the people who run the Golden Globes Awards an enormous headache, but it's been good for political candidates who are willing to leave the stump for a day to appear on late night TV. Hosts, like Jay Leno, no longer able to use writers to create material, are relying on guest to fill air-time.

And that's where the politicians have been making hay.

Two Republicans will be making appearances tonight. Rep. Ron Paul will be appearing on the Tonight Show with Leno, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will get a chance to show off his musical skills again tonight when he goes to New York to appear on David Letterman (who does have writers, so he's probably playing catch-up with Leno). While neither candidate is favored to win New Hampshire, they see the national exposure as likely to help them gain more supporters in the coming weeks.

Polls Show Obama, McCain Ahead Before Primary

Two new polls, taken over the weekend show that Democratic Illinois Senator Barack Obama has been able to capitalize on his victory in Iowa to surge to a strong lead in the New Hampshire. The polls show also show Republican Arizona Senator Jon McCain with a narrow lead over former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney.

A USAToday/Gallup poll, taken from Friday until Sunday afternoon shows Obama with a 13-point lead over New York Senator Hillary Clinton, 41 percent to 28 percent. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is third at 19 percent. The margin of error for the survey is +/- four percent, which means that Obama's lead is solid.

A smaller CNN/WMUR poll has Obama with a ten-point lead, 39-29 percent.

Even if Clinton loses New Hampshire, NPR's Cokie Roberts says she has the money and organization to stay in the race. Losing would be a definite blow to her chances, but she also knows that there are big states that vote on Feb. 5 that will likely swing her way.

On the Republican side, five separate polls show McCain with a lead over Romney, with a lead that goes from four points in the USAToday/Gallup poll to nine-points in a Franklin Pierce University/WBZ poll.

The one issue that threatened to derail McCain, immigration, has not been the albatross many thought it would be. The Houston Chronicle reports that while he is still being asked questions about his stance on immigration, it "no longer appears to be a major liability" in New Hampshire.

Romney Fights Back in Fox Debate

After a relatively lackluster performance in the Saturday night debate on ABC, Mitt Romney must have known that he would need to come out blazing in Sunday night's debate on Fox News, And NPR's Mara Liasson reports he did just that, attacking his two main opponents John McCain and Mike Huckabee throughout the evening.

After his loss in Iowa, Romney altered his message to focus on change. Portraying himself as the best agent of change in the Republican Party, Romney attacked McCain as someone who had been in Washington too long. But as Mara reports, McCain has a reputation as being a maverick in his own party, making it harder to paint him as a Washington insider.

Romney also hit on Huckabee for his record of "raising taxes" when he was governor of Arkansas. But Huckabee fired back with charges that Romney was making misleading attacks. "It is not about the politics of saying `I never raised a tax.' It is about `I made government work,' " said Huckabee last night.

But Romney was also taking a few blows. He was put on the defensive about his past comment that you don't need to be a foreign policy expert to be president. He said his leadership experience was important. McCain replied that his work on foreign policy and national security would make him better qualified to lead.

The debate was not without external controversies as well. The New Hampshire Republican Party withdrew its support of the event because Fox had excluded Rep. Ron Paul and Rep. Duncan Hunter. Paul held a televised event of his own Sunday on a local TV station (and simulcast it on his website), and then spoke to a boisterous crowd of several hundred at the final day of the the Free State Project's Liberty Forum in Nashua.

Candidates Swarm Up and Down New Hampshire

These days, residents of New Hampshire can hardly cross the street without running into a candidate for president. The Democratic and Republican candidates are swarming around the Granite State, looking for last second support before Tuesday primary.

Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney is working hard to win the state after faltering in Iowa. NPR's Tovia Smith reports that he's working the "favorite son" angle, playing on his proximity to the state during his years in Massachusetts. But it doesn't always work to his advantage.

" 'It's a double-edged sword,' said Chris Lonus, 30, who remembers when the pro-life, anti-gay-marriage Romney was a pro-choice politician vowing to be a stronger advocate for gay rights than Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA)."

On the Democratic side, Don Gonyea reports that Barack Obama is striking an optimistic tone at rallies that draw huge crowds. His constant theme - hope. He's attracting a lot of independents to these events, and even some Republicans who told Don that they supported George Bush last time.

His main opponent, Hillary Clinton spoke to a crowd of 3,000 at a high school in Nashua, N.H., where she took apart Barack Obama's position on the war of Iraq. As David Greene reports she noted that though Obama had spoken against the war in Iraq in 2002, he later said he was not sure how he would have voted on authorizing war if he'd been in the Senate at the time - and later still, he voted to authorize war funding. "That's not change," Clinton said.

8:25 AM ET | 01- 7-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

January 6, 2008

Romney Wins Wyoming Caucus

While all the barbs were flying at last night's Republican debate in Manchester, New Hampshire, there was actually a bit of voting going on in Wyoming's Republican caucus.

The result ... former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney won eight of the state's 14 delegates, the first ones awarded by the Republican Party this primary season. (Iowa caucused first, but did not award delegates - that will come later.) Former Tenn. Sen. Fred Thompson picked up three delegates. And California Rep. Duncan Hunter now has more delegates to the Republican National Convention than either former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee or Arizona Sen. John McCain: one. (At least until Tuesday, when New Hampshire votes.)

"The people of Wyoming took the first step towards bringing true conservative change to Washington," Romney said in a statement. "I am honored to have won many of the first delegates awarded this primary season."

The last two Wyoming Republican delegates will be selected at a state convention in May. Wyoming Democrats hold their caucus March 8.

7:08 AM ET | 01- 6-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

January 4, 2008

Outside Money Bellyflops in Iowa

As if the candidates themselves didn't drop enough cash in Iowa, some of America's biggest-spending independent political groups rolled through the state too, leaving advertisements, phone banks, direct mail and Web sites behind them.

Their total outlay is probably somewhere in the low millions. (It's hard to get too precise without better disclosure laws.)

And what did it get them? Not much.

Take the Club For Growth, which opposes Mike Huckabee because he raised taxes as governor of Arkansas. The club ran several hundred thousand bucks' worth of attack ads. But the attacks hurt Huckabee about as much as those from his self-financing rival, Mitt Romney -- that is, not at all.

Then there's the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, or AFSCME, running attack ads against Barack Obama -- this, in a contest where the candidates took pains not to get too nasty. The union spent somewhere north of $100,000. Another swing, another miss.

AFSCME also teamed with the American Federation of Teachers and EMILY's List, the group that supports pro-choice Democratic women candidates. They ran a sophisticated program to locate women who'd never caucused before, and mobilize them for Hillary Clinton. The strategy included phone calls, mail, more phone calls, on-line advertising, a Web site, www.yougogirl.com and, yes, more phone calls. It identified 60,000 potential Clinton supporters -- which would be a more powerful number if Democratic turnout hadn't skyrocketed to an unprecedented 239,000 caucusgoers.

John Edwards' friends in the union movement were on TV and radio too. Locals of the Service Employees International Union, UNITE HERE (the combined union of garment workers and hotel workers), the National Association of Government Employees -- and at least one well-heeled private donor -- joined to finance the Alliance for a New America. The carpenters union underwrote Working for Working Americans. Like the pro-Clinton groups, they couldn't legally coordinate with the candidate. But the pro-Edwards groups probably spent as much as Edwards' own campaign. He's taking federal matching funds, and part of that contract is a spending cap of about $2 million for Iowa.

Huckabee had his own private ally, an obscure group called Common Sense Issues, which put up ads, organized precinct workers and ran a Web site called www.trusthuckabee.com. It's hard to say what they spent, but considering Huckabee's shoestring operation, it couldn't have hurt.

But the top vote getter in Iowa didn't get any outside help. Nobody seems to have spent a penny on independent ads, phone banks or mail for Obama.

Whether that remains true in the next batch of primary states -- New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- AFSCME, Emily's List and the Club for Growth have already moved in.

-- Peter Overby

Difficult for Obama to Reproduce Iowa Energy in N.H.

Don't count the Clintons out yet.

That what NPR's senior Washington editor Ron Elving told Madeleine Brand Friday on Day to Day. In one sense, Sen. Barack Obama is now the frontrunner in the Democratic race ... but ...Hillary Clinton is still leading in national and New Hampshire polls. "No one should count her out," Ron said.

It will be more difficult for Obama to reproduce the kind of energy created in Iowa, when he hasn't spent as much time or money in Iowa. It would also be a mistake to think that he will automatically get that kind of youth support again. But if Obama fever does infect New Hampshire like it did in Iowa, then Obama could overwhelm Clinton with that energy.

Meanwhile, Ron says that Mike Huckabee has created a "new moment" for a portion of the Republican Party that feels that it was brought into the party to deliver a new consciousness of social issues. This part of the party - and Ron says it's not just evangelical Christians - has always more interested in social issues than in economic or national security issues.

In the past, this segment had provided majorities for GOP when it was in power. And they were told that this election would be a national security election, driven by the war on terror and that Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney would be the party's nominee. They were told that their issues would go to the back of the bus.

Instead, as Ron says, they turned out in droves for Mike Huckabee and upset the apple cart. Now it remains to be seen how this segment of the party will act in New Hampshire and in other primaries across the country.

Huckabee Sends Out Fund-Raising E-mail

Mike Huckabee has a lot going for him. He just won the Iowa caucuses after coming from nowhere two months ago. He's doing well in South Carolina, Michigan and Florida. He's moved into third place nationally, within striking distance of the two front runners, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. And he got to play his bass with Jay Leno's band on the Tonight Show.

But he hasn't got the one thing he REALLY needs to the most - money. So not wanting to waste any time, National Journal's Hotline On Call reports that he sent out this e-mail this morning:

Thank you Iowa! Thank you to the people that turned out to caucus for our campaign. We succeeded tonight because of your confidence in our campaign, your support of our ideas and because of the support of tens of thousands of Americans not just in Iowa but across the country that went the extra distance and believed.

We are off to New Hampshire tonight where we will campaign until the primary next week. You can be confident we will be working through the night as we prepare for the next steps forward.

Tonight I ask you to do three things to help us build on our momentum:

1. Make an immediate contribution of $10, $25, $50, $100, or $500 tonight. We have proven tonight that we can win, and that we know how to effectively invest your contribution. Will you make a contribution tonight and show the world, the pundits and voters across this country that we have the momentum and it is sweeping us onward.

2. Share the Iowa results with friends and family. If there are friends or neighbors that doubted our campaign or are undecided please encourage them to visit our website tonight, tomorrow and over the next few days and learn more.

3. Consider becoming more involved in our campaign: Volunteer, Join a Meetup or start a Grassroots Meetup Team, Join our Myspace group, our Facebook group and our LinkedIn group.

Three ways to help us keep the momentum going: contribute, share the news and become more involved.

Again, I cannot adequately express my profound thanks to you. When people ask you tonight and tomorrow why you think we won, please tell them because we believed in some things and we stand by those things, and we do so together.

With deep gratitude ...

Mike Huckabee

Duncan Hunter Soldiers On Despite Iowa Results

He is the invisible man of the 2008 presidential campaign. Next to him Rep. Ron Paul looks over covered by the media. Yet California Rep. Duncan Hunter continues to campaign in New Hampshire, despite not even winning a single percentage point in Iowa last night. Although Democratic Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd who left the race last night, or Rep. Tom Tancredo who did two weeks ago, Hunter says he plans to continue his quixotic quest for the Republican presidential nomination.

"He is forging ahead using tried-and-true tactics for New Hampshire, albeit on a small scale given his meager campaign finances," Copley News reports. "Although he is essentially skipping today's Iowa caucuses and is overshadowed by just about every other candidate here, Hunter continues to talk of placing third - at least - in this state's first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday."

"The only thing that stands between us and high numbers in the polls right now are media coverage and money," he said.

Perhaps.

Money would certainly help his quest. Although he has raised around $1.9 million overall, he has about $132,000 on hand, and is unlikely to raise more after his non-finish in Iowa last night. And he's not going to get much media exposure, considering he has been excluded from the two televised debates that will be happening over the next few days in New Hampshire.

"My motto in politics is never complain," Hunter said. "My trademark for 26 years has been, 'Don't whine. Keep working' "

2:47 PM ET | 01- 4-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Huckabee Says Limbaugh's Comments "Ridiculous"

Rush Limbaugh, the influential conservative talk show host, says he really likes Mike Huckabee, who he calls a fine man. But he won't call him a conservative. In fact, Limbaugh has gone out of his way in the past couple of days to tell his sizable radio audience that Huckabee is not a conservative, and that he is offended when he heard Huckabee supporters compare their candidate to the icon of American conservatism, the late President Ronald Reagan.

"I said yesterday, I have not spent a lifetime advocating conservative principles only to throw them away to embrace a particular candidate,"Limbaugh told his audience Thursday. "I don't support open borders and amnesty. I don't support the release of hundreds of criminals. McCain supports open borders and amnesty. Huckabee released hundreds of criminals. I don't support repeated increases in taxes. I don't support national health care, whether you call it a children's program or whatever it is. I don't support anti-war rhetoric. I don't support Republican candidates trashing the war in Iraq when we're winning it. I don't support Republican candidates claiming the president doesn't read the National Intelligence Estimates as an excuse for him not knowing what the hell is in one. And that's Governor Huckabee."

Huckabee responded to Limbaugh's comments this morning on Fox News. Huckabee said he had been an early supporter of Reagan in 1979-80. He called Limbaugh's remarks "ridiculous" and then rhymed off a list of conservative programs and ideals that he says he has long supported.

"If that's not conservative then someone needs to show me what conservative means," he said. Huckabee said he very much respected Limbaugh and hoped that someday "he'll love me as much as I love him."

Paul, Richardson in ABC Debates

It was nip and tuck for a while, but when ABC News hold their presidential debates this coming Saturday night in Manchester, New Hampshire, Republican Rep. Ron Paul and Democratic Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico will be included.

ABC News eliminated Republican presidential candidate Duncan Hunter and Democrats Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel from the prime- time presidential debates because they did not meet benchmarks for their support. Candidates had to meet at least one of three criteria: place first through fourth in Iowa, poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major New Hampshire surveys, or poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major national surveys.

Paul is polling at around seven percent in recent New Hampshire polls and Richardson won fourth place last night in Iowa. ABC's decision was made easier when Democratic Senators Chriss Dodd and Joe Biden dropped out of the race after their poor showings last night in Iowa.

McCain, Romney Ads Take Different Directions

It's obvious from his remarks after last night's caucuses in Iowa that Sen. John McCain does not think much about former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney's talents when it comes to being president. While he didn't attack him by name, he did take a couple of jabs when he pointed out that Republicans voters in Iowa showed that they couldn't be bought off (Romney outspent all the other candidates there), nor did they much like negative campaigning (Romney ran several ads that attacked the winner Mike Huckabee).

Based on the most recent set of ads aired in New Hampshire, the next important state in the presidential race, Romney hasn't changed his tack. This time the Romney campaign uses several local citizens to make their case about McCain: he's a real war hero and a patriot, but he voted against tax cuts and supported the "amnesty bill" for illegal immigrants. (Look for the "amnesty bill" line to get a lot of play in a race where illegal immigration is a main issue for Republicans.)

But McCain's ads features the senator himself asking the voters of the state to help him pull another upset like the one he pulled in 2000. There is no mention of any other candidate, just a call for voters to support him.

Negative advertising didn't seem to work for Romney is Iowa. It will be interesting to see if it can slow down the resurgent McCain in New Hampshire, a state that has become a "must-win" for the Romney campaign.

Recent polls show the race a tight one. A Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll released today shows McCain with a four-point lead, 34 to 30 percent. A Suffolk University-WHDH poll from Thursday also gives McCain a four-point advantage, 29-25 percent.

The Word of the Night in Iowa Was Change

Of the many messages that the candidates could take away from last night's caucuses in Iowa, it's that voters have change on their minds. For the Democrats in particular, where Barack Obama's message of change was the main reason cited by those who supported him, it became the theme of the evening. Democratic strategist Chris Lehane, talking to Renee Montagne on Morning Edition, says Obama's "impressive victory" has made change the main issue of the Democratic race.

Meanwhile, Republican political strategist Mike Murphy says Mike Huckabee has made the Republican contest in Hew Hampshire a three-way affair: Mitt Romney, a resurgent John McCain and himself. The question is can he now turn the momentum of Iowa into money and other primary victories in states without big evangelical constituencies, like Michigan and Nevada. Most observers believe he will not win in New Hampshire, where he does not have any organization of any kind (he has three workers in the state, all shared with a candidate for local office).

For Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney, the only way the results can be described is disappointing. As we pointed out before in the blog, however, they both have enough money to stay in the race for a long time.

But Murphy thinks that the big loser in Iowa could be Rudy Guiliani. While his strategy has been to "lose the first five innings and then roar back to win the late innings" he may have underestimated the importance of a strong showing in the early states. And he is not looking strong in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan or Nevada, which could affect his fund-raising.

Democratic Turnout Shatters Old Record in Iowa

A stunning result all around. That's how NPR's Mara Liasson described the results in Iowa last night.

Mara reported on Morning Edition that last night produced several surprises: the only demographic that Sen. Hillary Clinton won was those 65 and older, that Sen. Barack Obama did so well among women (beating Clinton 35-30 percent according to exit polls), particularly younger women, and that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee attracted support not only from evangelicals but from all groups of Republican voters.

And then there was the turnout. The tally was 239,000 Democrats, and 112,000 Republicans. Both were the highest totals ever for each party, but the Democratic total in particular was stunning. It shattered the old record of 124,00 from 2000, and as Mara says, tells us a lot about the energy in the Democratic Party right now. And many of those who attended Democratic events last night were first time caucusgoers.

Since the process in Iowa has begun, observers and pundits have mentioned that the Democrats seemed to be much more energized about their candidates, that their rallies were almost always bigger, noisier and more passionate than the Republican rallies - Mike Huckabee's gatherings being the one exception.

Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen notes that this huge Democratic turnout, in what last election was a "red state," does not bode well for the Republicans.

January 3, 2008

Huckabee, Obama Win Iowa Caucuses

NPR projects that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee will win the Republican race in the Iowa caucuses, while Illinois Senator Barack Obama will win the Democratic race.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney finished second for the Republicans. The Democratic contest for second is too close to call, with former North Carolina Senator John Edwards maintaining a small lead over New York Senator Hillary Clinton

How the Iowa Caucuses Work

Remember, what happens tonight in Iowa is a caucus, not a primary. Thus, participants are not "voters." They are, well, caucus participants. Or caucus attendees. David Yepsen, Des Moines Register columnist, calls them "caucusgoers" ... athough other Register political reporters continue to call them "voters." But, at least on the Democratic side, they are not "voting." Got that?

A lot of questions also center on the words "viable" and "viability." This is more about Democrats. It will be easy to calculate how the Republican candidates do, since the GOP contest in Iowa is basically a "straw poll," where Republican caucusgoers simply show up at a caucus site and cast a presidential preference ballot.

For Democrats, it's showing up for hours at a time, discussing issues like Iraq and ethanol, and then, when it comes time to declare presidential preference, standing in part of the room along with like-minded people. But if a candidate in a precinct fails to attract the support of 15 percent of those attending (smaller precincts require a larger threshold), that candidate is not considered "viable."

Thus, that candidate's supporters have the option of joining up with another candidate, or simply going home. In any event, those final tallies are what the Democrats release, not the total number of folks who show up on behalf of each candidate.

-- Ken Rudin

Things to Watch For in Iowa Caucuses

So what are the issues that will decide tonight winner? What about the strategies? When you turn on the radio tonight to listen to the results come in from Iowa, here are some points to consider.

For the Democrats:

* Who will finish second? Barack Obama says he needs to finish first, but a strong second would also help. John Edwards needs a first or second. Hillary Clinton could finish in any of the three top spots and fight on (although finishing third would be a huge embarrassment). If Edwards finishes lower than second, his campaign is in big trouble.

* Will college students participate in large numbers? Particularly important for Obama, less so for Clinton. Obama is also dependent on the number of independents participating.

* Who will women support? We'll see how well Hillary survived the Oprah offensive.

* Participation in rural areas. This is where Edwards is hoping to score big.

For the Republicans:

* Turnout, as we suggested in the previous posting. The larger the turnout, the better for Mike Huckabee

* Will Fred Thompson finish third? If he does, he will probably continue to New Hampshire ... if not, he might decide enough is enough.

* Mitt Romney's attacks on Huckabee. Once Romney started playing rough, Huckabee came back to the pack. But Iowans are also famous for not liking smear tactics.

* A John McCain surge? He hardly campaigned here, and he won't win, but a good showing would help in New Hampshire.

And for both parties, the weather and the Orange Bowl. It'll be very, very cold in Iowa tonight (wind chill will keep in the single digits tonight). That might encourage some folks to stay inside and watch Virginia Tech play Kansas in Miami, and day dream about being somewhere warm.

High Turnout Could Be Bad News for Romney

Scott Horsley's piece on today's Morning Edition about the Republican race includes a good line from Mitt Romney, where he jokingly encourages Iowans who support him to vote and vote often if possible. He ends by making a plea for people to get their neighbors, friends and relatives out to the caucuses tonight, asking for maybe 30-50 minutes of their time this evening.

But Romney might actually be happier if not all that many people come tonight. Romney advisers, quoted by The New York Times, say that it's all about the math. If the turnout is around 80,000 for the Republican caucuses tonight the former Massachusetts governor will have a much better chance of winning. But if goes above 80,000, alarm bells go off in the Romney camp. That means former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has energized the evangelical vote and convinced them to come out in the single digit Iowa winter weather.

Attendance in the Republican Iowa caucuses has been declining since 1976: 106,000 in 1980, 109,000 in 1988; 96,000 in 1996; and in 2000, 86,000. Normally, evangelical turnout has accounted for roughly 40 percent of those numbers. But Monday's poll from the Des Moines Register showed this number could go as high as 50 percent this year.

Meanwhile, Romney is the subject of this month's The New Yorker "Naked Campaign" video by artist and cartoonist Steve Brodner. Interesting to see how quickly a good cartoonist can draw a political candidate.

Final Poll Shows Obama, Huckabee with Small Leads

This is it, we've hit the heights, no more rehearsing and nursing our parts ... it's caucus day in Iowa.

After months of the campaign that seemed to start far too early, the 2008 presidential race launches for real tonight, and by this time tomorrow morning, more will be known about just who will be winning each party's nomination. (Here's NPR's Nancy Cook's explanation of how the caucuses will transpire this evening.) On the other hand, whatever happens tonight won't be the final word by far.

The results of the final, absolute last, no more in sight poll in Iowa, done by Reuters/C-Span /Zogby looks familiar but with one surprise. Barack Obama leads the Democratic contenders with 31 percent. In second place (and here is the surprise) is John Edwards with 27 percent. Back in third is Hillary Clinton with 24.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee has a six-point lead over Mitt Romney 31 to 25 percent. Three other candidates are in double-digits: Fred Thompson third with 11 percent and John McCain and Ron Paul tied with 10 percent. (The rolling poll of 905 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 914 likely Republican caucus-goers was taken Sunday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for each party.)

Meanwhile Thompson was busy making the rounds of cable TV morning shows, denying a report on the Politico.com site that he will drop out of the Republican race in several says if he does not do well tonight, and throw his support to McCain.

Thompson also told an Iowa TV station that the rumor was "made up out of whole cloth," and came from a rival campaign. "Can you imagine such a thing in politics?" he asked.

11:20 AM ET | 01- 3-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Huckabee Tells Leno He's Like Obama

Heeeerrreeee's Mike ...

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee ventured across the picket lines set up by striking writers and appeared on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno last night. But Huckabee didn't seem to need writers, cracking a few jokes before he discussed more serious topic.

He told Leno that "People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with rather than the guy that laid them off." (A subtle shot at uber-business man and corporate executive Mitt Romney.) He remarked that he and former President Bill Clinton were indeed from Hope, Arkansas.

"We didn't know each other growing up," said Huckabee. "He's 9-years older, and he had moved away when he was like 7-years old and went to Hot Springs. When he ran for President, somehow it just didn't sound right to say, 'I believe in a place called Hot Springs.' "

He also told Leno that politics was a "full-contact sport" and "if you can't stand the sight of your own blood, don't run for anything." He also offered an explanation for why he showed the "pulled ad" at his press conference the other day, rather than just talk about it. Huckabee said it was to prove to the "cynical media" that they really had made an ad.

"If I had really wanted to be disingenuous what I would have done is run the ad for three days and then said, 'Oh, I have a conscience now. I think I'm going to pull it.' "

Huckabee also praised Sen. John McCain as a hero and "a great guy." And he said he felt that he and Democratic Senator Barack Obama had similar messages. After the afternoon taping, Huckabee flew back to Iowa to be there for today's caucuses.

January 2, 2008

Campaigns Awash in Money ... But It May Not Be Enough

Money makes the world go around, the world go around ... and political campaigns too. And as NPR's Peter Overby explained on All Things Considered, the 2008 campaigns for the presidency are awash in more money than ever before ... and it still might not be enough for most candidates. Here are a few of the facts that Peter mentioned:

* Democratic Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both raised more than $100 million in 2007. That's never been done before by two candidates running in the same party's contest.

* Republican Rep. Ron Paul raised $19.5 million in the last quarter of 2007, and most of it on the Internet. That $19.5 million total represents 70 percent of what he raised for the entire year.

* Mitt Romney has spent a lot of his own money, but no one knows how much. By September of 2007 he had spend $17 million. And that was before things really heated up in Iowa and New Hampshire.

* Of the seven major candidates, only Democrat John Edwards has taken federal matching funds. (In fact, Barack Obama's wife has even said this is one reason not to vote for Edwards, because it means he won't have enough money to defeat a Republican challenger if he wins.)

* Emily's List, the American Federation of Teachers and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees have spend about $1 million identifying voters for Clinton, while AFSCME has spent abut $500,00 on materials attacking Obama.

* Other unions have given about $2 million to John Edwards.

* After the early states, Obama, Clinton and Romney have the funds on hand to continue. The other candidates can take matching funds, but it means they can only spend $50 million between now and their parties' conventions in late August and September. And as Peter notes, most analysts don't think that $50 million will be enough.

Peter suggests that if you cant to find out more about how the money comes and goes in campaigns, you can check out the FEC's listing of recent electioneering communications by outside groups and the FEC's search page for recent independent expenditures by political action committees. Yes, there's a difference.

Mason City Awash in Candidates and Pudding Snacks

Mason City is home to only 27,000 people, but it's big enough to host a giant Walmart, Super Target, and on this day-before-the-caucuses no fewer than three Republican presidential candidates (plus former President Bill Clinton, who is here stumping for his wife).

As the local convention and visitors bureau (!) notes, Mason City is the only place in the world where Jell-O pudding snacks are made. And the average winter temperature is a balmy 18 F. It would have to warm up some to hit that today.

No wonder Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney all decided to visit Mason City today, in a last-minute barnstorming appeal for caucus votes. Huckabee joked that wearing one of his campaign buttons instantly warms one's body temperature to 98.6 degrees. He urged supporters to drag a friend through the cold to the caucuses, and to shovel snow into the driveways of people who are backing his rivals. (Maybe he was warming up for his appearance on Jay Leno tonight.)

-- Scott Horsley

New Pew Poll Shows McCain Surges to National Lead

Covering polls is always a bit of a dicey issue. As several readers of the blog have pointed out, it often seems to over emphasize the horse race part of the campaign to the detriment of the issues. That's a fair comment, and shows why you should talk about polls carefully.

But polls can also give you a sense of the ebb and flow of the campaign. And a new poll from the Pew Research Center for People and the Press shows that there is no one more in the flow right now than Republican Senator John McCain.

On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, the poll show that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's large lead over his rivals has vanished, and the race has become a toss-up. McCain now leads the choice of Republicans nationally, with 22 percent, to Giuliani's 20 percent and Mike Huckabee's 17 percent. Since the poll's margin of error is =/- five percent, it means that there is basically a three-way tie for the lead. For McCain, however, whose campaign was considered all but comatose a few months ago, the survey results are astounding.

But as Ken Rudin (our political editor notes) notes, national polls are meaningless at this point. Once Iowa votes, then NH polls — and national polls — will follow suit. Also, being first in the national polls for months has not helped Rudy Giuliani much in the early states.

For Democrats there is much less change and still lots of good news in the poll for Sen. Hillary Clinton. She maintains a 20-point lead over her closest rival Barack Obama, 46 percent to 26 percent.

Romney Accuses Bush of Mismanaging Iraq War

This seems like a case of "Don't do as I do, do as I say."

On Tuesday, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney said the Bush administration mismanaged the Iraq war.

"I think we did a less than effective job in managing the conflict following the collapse of Saddam Hussein," the former Massachusetts governor said at a news conference. "I think we were under prepared for what occurred, understaffed, under planned, and, in some respects, under managed."

What's most interesting about his comments is that about three weeks ago, he was hammering former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee for criticizing the administration. In fact, when Huckabee wrote in a Foreign Affairs article that the Bush administration had fallen victim to a "bunker mentality" in some of its diplomatic dealings, Romney demanded that he apologize to the president. "I said, did this come from Barack Obama," he said last month. "Or from Hillary Clinton? Did it come from John Edwards? No, it was one of our own. It was Governor Huckabee."

Interestingly, Romney also said on Tuesday that "I think we should come together and recognize the great work our president is doing and not take our rhetoric or our plays from Democratic playbook."

So ... was Romney for the president yesterday before he was against him? Or the other way around?

Remembering Political Figures Who Left Us in 2007

Yea, the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow and New Hampshire votes next Tuesday. But it is the end of one year, and the beginning of the next, and that means it's also time to pause for a moment and reflect over the events of the past 12 months. Our own political junkie, Ken Rudin, looks at the political figures who passed away in 2007.

"Among the departed is Sen. Craig Thomas, the Wyoming Republican, as well as five members of the House, three of whom were women. Gone also were a first lady (Lady Bird Johnson) and two others who might have been (Eleanor McGovern and Jane Wyman). From the era of Watergate, we lost one of the leading conspirators of the scandal (Howard Hunt) and three congressmen from the House Judiciary Committee who wrestled with presidential impeachment (Robert Drinan, Wiley Mayne and Bill Hungate). A vice presidential candidate who lasted just 18 days on the ticket (Tom Eagleton) and a congressman who dearly wanted to be named to the ticket (Guy Vander Jagt). The voices of powerful congressmen (Henry Hyde) and phenomenal journalists (David Halberstam, for one) were lost as well."

Ken offers a chronological list of those who died in 2007, the well-known and the obscure ... even a former New York Yankee's pitcher who became mayor of Wake Forest, North Carolina after his baseball career ended.

(But since Iowa is tomorrow, check out Ken's "Caucus Calculus: a Guide to Iowa" that explains what will happen tomorrow night.)

12:38 PM ET | 01- 2-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Paul Supporters Furious Over Debate Snubs

Hell hath no fury like a Ron Paul supporter when he or she learns their candidate has been left out of a debate. So Paul supporters are furious that Fox News has decided to leave Paul out of an upcoming debate that will feature Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson.

The Associated Press reports that Fox claims it only has limited space in the mobile studio where it will hold the debate and so it limited attendees to candidates in national double-digits. That leaves out Paul and California Rep. Duncan Hunter. Fox did invite Paul to a debate in South Carolina on January 10th.

But Paul supporters are also angry at ABC because he may be left out of its debate this Saturday night because of the criteria to attend: place first through fourth in Iowa, poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major New Hampshire surveys, or poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major national surveys. (The ABC formula for the Democrats is the same, so this means its likely that Dennis Kucinich and two of these three (Biden, Richardson, Dodd) will be barred from that debate as well.)

Many newspaper columnists, TV and radio commentators and political bloggers have argued that, in particular, Fox's exclusion of Paul, is a mistake. They write that using these criteria, former Senator Fred Thompson might not qualify. In Iowa, polls show Paul tied with Thompson at 4 percent and in New Hampshire he leads him by 6 percent to 4 percent. Others point out that the $19.5 million Paul raised in the last quarter shows a level of support that can't be ignored.

(If you want to see how angry the Paul supporters are, just check here later for comments. No doubt there will be many.)

To Pardon or Not to Pardon, That is the GOP Question

The one thing about presidential campaigns is that they have a way of bringing to the public's attention individual Americans who never thought they would become part of the political process - and often don't want to. For instance, you've probably never heard of Anthony Circosta, a decorated Iraq War veteran from Agawam, Massachusetts, but you probably will soon.

The reason you will be hearing about Circosta, as many Iowans are, is that he has become the center of discussion in the Republican Iowa contest over pardons and commutations.

Circosta hardly seems a "convicted criminal" type. A combat medic in Iraq, the 30-year old received a promotion to first lieutenant and was awarded a Bronze Star during his tour. But when he was 13 he got into a dispute with a group of kids cutting through his backyard and shot one of them in the shoulder with a BB gun. The man who was shot back then told the Boston Globe recently that the pellet left a welt, but no bleeding or other damage. But Circosta pleaded guilty in juvenile court to felony assault with a dangerous weapon, and was sentenced to 364 days of probation.

Years later, after working at the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics (run by Mitt Romney) as a National Guard medic, he applied for a pardon because he wanted to become a police officer. But that required a gun permit and that meant he needed to get the BB incident cleared. But then Massachusetts Governor Romney refused to do it. Three years later, after he returned from Iraq, he asked for the pardon again so that he could become commander of his National Guard company. But Romney turned him down again, despite the pardon advisory board recommendation (both times) that he be cleared.

And Iowa frontrunner Mike Huckabee has seized on the case of Circosta to show that Romney is, as the Globe reports, "so hardhearted and politically calculating that he would deny a deserving veteran a chance to improve his life just because 'he wanted to brag that he never, ever gave out a pardon' when he ran for president."

Romney, who has attacked the former Arkansas governor for the 1,033 pardons and commutations that he issued when he was in office, said he was only following his policy of not issuing pardons to people seeking a gun-permit if they had gun-related offenses. But Huckabee has told the story of Circosta to large crowds in Iowa, where he ends by asking for a show of hands if they would pardon him. Most in the audience raise their hands.

Circosta has told the media he is not interested in talking about his story, and that he has moved on. But he soon might find himself a subject of even more media attention if Huckabee wins Iowa and the pardons issues becomes a greater point of debate between him and Romney.

9:56 AM ET | 01- 2-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Democrats In Iowa Doubt Poll's Tally of Independents

They were celebrating more than the New Year in the Barack Obama campaign Monday.

As NPR's David Greene reports the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll before Thursday night's caucuses shows the Illinois senator with a seven-point lead over his nearest rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, 32 to 25 percent. Former Senator John Edwards is in third place at 24 percent.

But the other Democratic candidates in Iowa don't much like the poll for one specific reason - they don't believe the Register's finding that 40 percent of those people surveyed who say they will attend the Democratic caucuses are independents and many are planning for vote for Obama. Clinton, for instance, did much better among those surveyed who identified themselves as Democrats.

"I'm sure [the number of independents participating] will be higher, but that just seems impossible," Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster working for Delaware Sen. Joe Biden's campaign, told the Register. "That would be a revolution."

But Greene says whether or not the poll is as accurate as some people would like, it may have already have had an impact. The paper, which is the state's biggest, used big headlines to trumpet the Obama lead. Just how that will psychologically affect people who haven't made up their minds yet remains to be seen, Greene says it could help sway them. At least that's what the Obama people are hoping.

9:07 AM ET | 01- 2-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

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