NPR: Democrats In Iowa Doubt Poll's Tally of Independents

Democrats In Iowa Doubt Poll's Tally of Independents

They were celebrating more than the New Year in the Barack Obama campaign Monday.

As NPR's David Greene reports the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll before Thursday night's caucuses shows the Illinois senator with a seven-point lead over his nearest rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, 32 to 25 percent. Former Senator John Edwards is in third place at 24 percent.

But the other Democratic candidates in Iowa don't much like the poll for one specific reason - they don't believe the Register's finding that 40 percent of those people surveyed who say they will attend the Democratic caucuses are independents and many are planning for vote for Obama. Clinton, for instance, did much better among those surveyed who identified themselves as Democrats.

"I'm sure [the number of independents participating] will be higher, but that just seems impossible," Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster working for Delaware Sen. Joe Biden's campaign, told the Register. "That would be a revolution."

But Greene says whether or not the poll is as accurate as some people would like, it may have already have had an impact. The paper, which is the state's biggest, used big headlines to trumpet the Obama lead. Just how that will psychologically affect people who haven't made up their minds yet remains to be seen, Greene says it could help sway them. At least that's what the Obama people are hoping.

9:07 AM ET | 01- 2-2008 | permalink

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