Fact Watch: Iraq
From the speech:
"In Iraq, the terrorists and extremists are fighting to deny a proud people their liberty and to establish safe havens for attacks across the world."
Analysis:
True. But al-Qaida is just one problem in Iraq. So, too, is the sectarian division -- another serious problem. The National Police, for example, are rife with Shiite death squad members and many commanders have had to be fired.
From the speech:
"And today this grassroots surge includes more than 80,000 Iraqi citizens who are fighting the terrorists."
Analysis:
True, but few of those so-called Concerned Local Citizens, who are essentially an armed neighborhood watch, are being absorbed into the Iraqi Security Forces. And the U.S. taxpayer is paying $300 per month for most of those citizens. The Shiite-dominated government doesn't trust them because most are Sunni and some were former insurgents. Now, the Americans are working on a plan to hire the bulk of those who aren't allowed into the security forces for public service jobs.
From the speech:
"Our objective in the coming year is to sustain and build on the gains we made in 2007 ... American troops are shifting from leading operations to partnering with Iraqi forces, and eventually to a protective overwatch mission."
Analysis:
The real question is, as American surge troops draw down, will the Iraqi forces be able to pick up the slack? Most of the gains in 2007 were the result of 30,000 more American troops. And as far as that shift, it will take many years. Maj. Gen. James Dubik, the top American trainer of Iraqi forces, told Congress that the Iraqi defense minister had estimated when the Iraqis could reach that "overwatch" phase where Americans would be in a supervisory role. The minister estimated that the Iraqis could take control of internal security sometime between 2009 and 2012, and external security sometime between 2018 and 2020.
From the speech:
"Progress in the provinces must be matched by progress in Baghdad."
Analysis:
That's the rub. There is reconciliation going on at the local level, but little at the national level in Baghdad. There is little movement on the "benchmarks" on political reconciliation that the president outlined last year.
From the speech:
"The national government is sharing oil revenues with the provinces."
Analysis:
True, but no oil law has been passed. A key sticking point? The Kurds in the north want more control over the oil in their area and are balking.
From the speech:
"The parliament recently passed both a pension law and de-Baathification reform."
Analysis:
The de-Baathification law passed was more restrictive than the one that the U.S. wanted. It may worsen sectarian problems by forcing out many Sunnis in the government, especially officials in the security forces. And there are concerns about how the law will be implemented by the Shiite-led government and how many pensions will be forthcoming for Sunnis.
From the speech:
"Now they are debating a provincial powers law."
Analysis:
And they have been debating it for more than two years. Sunnis want provincial elections so they can have a greater say in how they are governed. But the Shiite government is balking. Many in the Sunni enclave of Anbar Province have little trust in the government. One Marine general told NPR in the fall of 2006 that if provincial elections were not held in 2007, we will have "problems." President Bush last January said he expected the elections "later this year."
- Tom Bowman
9:51 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink
