NPR: Why Florida Has Some Bad News for Barack Obama

Why Florida Has Some Bad News for Barack Obama

It was a primary that didn't really mean anything. That's because the Democratic National Committee had stripped Florida of its delegates for moving the primary up before Super Tuesday. But 1.7 million Democrats still voted Tuesday and there are signs in Hillary Clinton's victory here that point to possible trouble ahead for her main rival, Senator Barack Obama.

Clinton's 17-point victory in Florida (50 to 33 percent) came as a result of the strong backing of women, Latinos and seniors - the first two groups are key voting blocs in the big prize next Tuesday, California. Women, for instance, made up 60 percent of the Democrat voters in Florida and Clinton dominated this group, with 55 percent, compared to 29 percent for Obama. While none of these Democratic primaries and caucuses are winner-take-all-delegate states, Clinton could do well in these states if these two constituencies continue to strongly support her.

Obama once again dominated the African-American demographic taking about 70 percent to Clinton's 27 percent. But African-Americans comprised only 18 percent of those voting, as opposed to almost half in South Carolina.

In California, according to the 2006 census, Hispanics/Latinos are 35.9 percent of the state's population, while African-Americans are about 6.7 percent. (This why the endorsement of former candidate New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the Democratic Party's highest ranking official of Hispanic origin, has been so aggressively sought.)

The one-factor that could help Obama in California is his support among those 30 and under. This group makes up only 10 percent of the population of Florida, while seniors (another big Clinton group) comprise 60 percent. In California the gap between the two groups won't be as large, which should help Obama.

11:42 AM ET | 01-30-2008 | permalink

Comments

How does voting differ within the Hispanic/Latino community? Are Cubans more likely to vote for Hillary than Mexicans?

Sent by MichaelS | 12:33 PM ET | 01-30-2008

Michael

That is a great question. I'll see if I can track that down for you.

Tom Regan
Host, Newsblog

Sent by Tom Regan | 1:02 PM ET | 01-30-2008

The state of Florida is up to it same trick. Anyone who had renewed there drivers license within the past few months, some how there voting status was changed from democrat to independent and they were not permitted to vote the ballot that contained the presidential hopefuls, but only amendments or issues.

Sent by Felicia Benson | 1:58 PM ET | 01-30-2008

I am praying that Richardson will back Obama and that John Edwards will lend his support along with the delegates he's ammassed up to this point. I hope this happens before Super Tuesday. If Clinton wins, I will hope that Bloomberg joins the race as an Independent and will support him. After seeing the tag team tactics of the Clintons, I've moved from being a loyal follower to selecting another candidate. Sad, but good that the truth came out.

Sent by Christina Daly | 2:20 PM ET | 01-30-2008

Felicia

Have you seen or heard of some evidence of this happening? What are you basing your suspicions on?

Tom Regan
Newsblog host

Sent by Tom Regan | 2:26 PM ET | 01-30-2008

Overall, I think the Supertuesday problem for Obama is that Hillary is ahead in the national polls, and with so many states voting at once, he can't get around them all to close the gap or win the way he showed he can do in states approached individually.

Paul - originalfaith.com

Sent by Paul M Martin | 4:52 PM ET | 01-30-2008

The truth has not come out, at all. What has come out is a lot of Clinton bashing run amuck. It's like a contagion. Who cares what the truth really is, let's just blame them for everything! Let's just take all our frustrations in life out on the Clintons! Please don't just believe everything you hear. His administration was one of the most accomplished and successful we have ever had.

JFK had affairs and was known and almost romanticized for his womanizing ways. Yet he is so revered. He was very fortunate to have served in office before the politics of scandalizing people's personal marital issues and smearing them incessantly for it, became a tactic.

He is appreciated for all his accomplishments, as should be the Clintons.

Too many people make the Clintons their scapegoats, when it is grossly unjust.

They are extremely intelligent, competent, dedicated people who have delivered hope and change. That is what inspires me! That is what I want! I want experience and proven competence!

Hillary excels in the debates and that is because she knows what she is talking about. Barack does not do well in the debates because at this point, he is too inexperienced and does not know what he is talking about. It's easy to give speeches.

If there's anything I've learned in these last 7 years, it's that rhetoric means virtually nothing, and experience and proven completence mean everything!

I don't want another inexperienced President.

Bill knows how competent and qualified Hillary truly is. She is the most qualified candidate. That is why he has been supporting her so strongly.

The press has been so unfair and inaccurate, that I have lost virtually all my respect for much of the press.

It's just like Iraq, where they don't ask the hard questions, or look more deeply to see the truth. They just spin the hype of the moment, make quotes out of context and distort them.

And that's what made Bill frustrated, it would have been better if he had stayed more calm, but he has very legitimate reasons to be frustrated. They have been treated very unfairly.

I have lost a lot of my respect for Barack at this point. He has been hypocritical, and he employs a lot of his lawyer double-talk and double-standards. He talks about not dividing, but he says many very divisive things, and he can be very arrogant, condescending, and full of himself.

I want what's best for our country. I want someone who is really experienced and proven capable. And that person is Hillary!

Hillary inspires me! True proven competence!

Sent by Lauren | 5:26 PM ET | 01-30-2008

In the Nevada caucus there was problems with Clinton supporters sending false information and voting too early to get the upper hand on other canadites supporters. You can check our local Knpr broadcast about people's reactions the the Clinton's party tatics.

Sent by Vanity | 9:28 PM ET | 01-30-2008

Michael

I wrote David Greene, who is covering the Clinton campaign for NPR, and asked him your question about the voting differences in the Hispanic community. Here is his reply:

"I can say the Clinton team feels very confident with Mexican Americans... Especially with the United Farmworkers endorsement in Calif. I have to say I haven't explored the always-complicated Cuban vote with them... If I can get anything from them I'll pass it on!"

Sent by Tom Regan | 7:24 AM ET | 01-31-2008

Florida Cubans won't vote for Barack. The problems between the Florida Cuban and the Black communities exploded during the O.J. McDuffie Riots in Overtown a couple of decades ago, after a Cuban police officer shot and killed two black men on a motorcycle, and Miami's Overtown area went up in flames.

In all fairness to Barack, he didn't stand a chance in Cuban Florida.

Hillary knew this and took advantage. Which helped Bill and 'The Hill' make Barack looks so bad on the national campaign scene.

Politics: Be prepared to bathe in your own blood.

fred camorra call

Sent by fred camorra call | 11:21 AM ET | 01-31-2008

Fred.....in all honesty, Democrats don't do well in Florida because of the Cuban population. It is VERY well known that Cubans traditionally vote Republican.

Sent by Dave | 11:28 PM ET | 02-03-2008

Sent by Dave: Fred.....in all honesty, Democrats don't do well in Florida

Florida historically goes in cycles depending on who the northern developers are. Lawton Chiles handily wiped Jeb Bush for the governorship, Jeb's first time around.

Florida is part Southern Politics and part Northern Politics. The panhandle region of Florida is populated by retired military and descendants of Yankees who deserted during the Civil War. Cause nobody could find them in the Florida wilderness back in Lincoln's day.

The Seminole tribes of today are actually mixed descendants of Apaches, Commanches, Sioux, Blackfoot and every other Indian sent to a prisoner of war camp in Florida during the Indian Wars.

In short, Floridians are the exact defintion of the melting pot syndrome. My grandparents came to Florida from Chicago and New Jersey back during the Depression Years.

One thing you can bet on with the pendulum of Florida, it'll swing back and forth depending on who Donald Trump and his buddies are politically backing.

fred camorra call

Sent by fred camorra call | 11:24 AM ET | 02-04-2008

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