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February 29, 2008

Obama Answers Clinton's Ad with his Own "Ringing"

Well that didn't take long.

Sen. Barack Obama answered Hillary Clinton's "Children" ad (which featured a ringing phone in the White House, shots of children sleeping and a voice-over saying that something was happening in the world and who did you want to answer the phone - in this case Hillary ... see earlier today in the blog) with an ad of his own featuring sleeping children (in fact, they look a lot like the sleeping kids from the first ad), a ringing phone and a new answer to the question of who should answer the phone.

Here it is:

Senior White House Aide Admits Plagiarism

A senior White House aide, who worked closely with Karl Rove and was President Bush's chief liaison to religious groups, has admitted to plagiarizing a column that he wrote for his hometown newspaper, the Fort Wayne (Ind.) News-Sentinel. The Associated Press reports that 20 of the columns Timothy Goeglein wrote for the paper contained plagiarized material, most recently from a Dartmouth Review piece written by Jeffery Hart on education.

The plagiarism was reported by a blogger, Nancy Nall, a former News-Sentinel columnist.

Goeglein agreed that what he did was wrong and resigned his job as deputy director of the Office of Public Liaison.

For his part, Hart seemed quite unperturbed. He said he received Hart apology via e-mail on Thursday.

"I told him I was flattered he'd used it. It doesn't damage him in my estimation at all. I'm glad he spread the word," he told CNN. "If it came in an academic context, it'd have to be dealt with," he said, but he feels this situation is different. "I think stuff flies around on the Web, in journalism and so on."

Obama Ad Strategy Heavy on Web Use

If you want to know what a few extra million here and there can do for a presidential campaign, then it is educational to look at how Sen. Barack Obama is using the Web to reach his audience in Texas and Ohio compared to Sen. Hillary Clinton.

techPresident reports that Obama's campaign in running "huge video-enabled billboard ads" on four Ohio sites as well as 12 in Texas, along with several newspaper sites in both states.

Like some other display and video-enabled ads placed by '08 presidential campaigns thus far, the new Obama ads serve a dual purpose of persuasion and direct response. In this case, embedded TV spots mentioning issues like healthcare, the war in Iraq and middle class tax cuts act as persuasion tools while a big, red "Go" button takes users to a form to find the nearest place to vote early. Both Texas and Ohio allow voters to cast their ballots before primary day at locales like the county clerk's office.

Clinton, however, "doesn't seem to be running Web display ads at all" according to techPresident.

There could be two reasons for this development: The Clinton campaign is being careful with its money, hoping that they'll need to spend it fighting for more delegates after March 4; the Clinton camp recognizes that is primarily a younger audience on the Web that has already largely gone to Obama - buying web ads could be seen as throwing good money after bad.

5:30 PM ET | 02-29-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

McCain Has His Own "Pastor Problems"

There has been a fair bit of ink spilled (and 1s and 0s digitally written) about the relationship that Sen. Barack Obama has with the controversial pastor of his church, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

But it turns out that Obama may not be the only one with a connection to a controversial religious leader. It turns out that Pastor James Hagee, who gave his endorsement to Sen. John McCain on Wednesday, has made some statements that already have several groups calling for McCain to distance himself from the religious leader.

One of those groups is the Catholic Church. As CBS News' Dante Higgins writes, church leaders want McCain to "distance himself from Hagee over anti-Catholic comments he has made about Catholics.

The always on-guard head of The Catholic League Bill Donovan (who has made a few questionable cross-faith comments himself, particularly about Jews) said, ""There are plenty of staunch evangelical leaders who are pro-Israel, but are not anti-Catholic. John Hagee is not one of them. Indeed, for the past few decades, he has waged an unrelenting war against the Catholic Church. For example, he likes calling it 'The Great Whore,' an 'apostate church,' the 'anti-Christ,' and a 'false cult system.' "

In an interview with Terri Gross on Fresh Air in 2006. Hagge said " ... those who live by the Koran have a scriptural mandate to kill Christians and Jews."

In the same interview he also said "All hurricanes are acts of God, because God controls the heavens. I believe that New Orleans had a level of sin that was offensive to God, and they were recipients of the judgment of God for that. The newspaper carried the story in our local area that was not carried nationally, that there was to be a homosexual parade there on the Monday that the Katrina came. And the promise of that parade was that it would was going to reach a level of sexuality never demonstrated before in any of the other gay pride parades."

McCain started to backtrack a bit Friday, saying that he was "very proud of the Pastor John Hagee's spiritual leadership to thousands of people and I am proud of his commitment to the independence and the freedom of the state of Israel" but that it "does not mean that I support or endorse or agree with some of the things that Pastor John Hagee might have said or positions that he may have taken on other issues."

As the The New Republic's Dayo Olopade writes, "not a rejection or denouncement in sight."

Update: NPR's Scott Horsley sends along more of the statement Sen. McCain made this afternoon about Pastor Hagee: ""I am hopeful that Catholics, Protestants and all people of faith who share my vision for the future of America will respond to our message of defending innocent life, traditional marriage, and compassion for the most vulnerable in our society."

Does Experience Matter in a President?

"Experience never exists in isolation; it is always a factor that coexists with temperament, training, background, spiritual outlook and a host of other factors ... Character is your magic word, it seems to me -- not just what they've done but how they've done it and what they've learned from doing it."

That's a quote from presidential historian Richard Norton Smith taken from one of a pair of articles in Time magazine about experience and just how much of it you really need to be a good president.

In a piece entitled "The Science of Experience," writer John Cloud says it is generally accepted that it takes about ten years for a person to learn to become an "expert" in any particular field. But "while 10 years is a necessary minimum to achieve expertise in most fields, it doesn't guarantee success. As Anders Ericsson writes in the introduction to the 901-page Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance (2006), 'The number of years of experience in a domain is a poor predictor of attained performance.' "

Ericsson's primary finding is that rather than mere experience or even raw talent, it is dedicated, slogging, generally solitary exertion -- repeatedly practicing the most difficult physical tasks for an athlete, repeatedly performing new and highly intricate computations for a mathematician -- that leads to first-rate performance. And it should never get easier; if it does, you are coasting, not improving.

Is the same true for presidents? In his article on presidents and experience, David Von Dredle points out that some of the men considered among the greatest presidents, such as Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy, had far less experience then their rivals. But Ronald Reagan and FDR both had valuable experience as governors of large states.

He quotes Jim Baker, the former Secretary of State, who found that experience was a problem when he ran George H.W. Bush's presidential campaign in 1980, but it was exactly what was needed to help him win in 1988: "... there's no such thing as presidential experience outside of the office itself." The quality we ought to seek, says Baker, "is leadership."

Obama Widening Lead in Texas, Catching up in Ohio

New Reuters/C-Span/Houston Chronicle polls show Illinois Sen. Barack Obama with a widening lead in Texas and that he has closed the gap between himself and Sen. Hillary Clinton in Ohio.

The poll shows Obama with 48 percent while Clinton has 42 percent. Obama is also strong in the Dallas and Houston areas, which will send a larger portion of delegates to the Democratic convention than the rural areas where Clinton is strong.

"Obama has built a six-point lead over Clinton in Texas, largely on the strength of support from what has come to be his base -- younger voters and men. Evidence of his persuasive powers comes from the fact that most of those who have most recently decided for whom to support, while Clinton won more support from early deciders."

Meanwhile in Ohio, Clinton has a two-point lead, 44 percent to 42 percent. Pollster John Zogby writes that "... the most telling numbers are those among early deciders vs. late deciders. Among those who made up their minds 'more than a month ago,' Clinton leads 63% to 37%. Obama leads but margins as big among those who made up their minds less than a month ago, a week ago, and within the past few days. In the same vein, Clinton leads by 6 among those who have already voted."

The Democratic Party surveys in Ohio included 708 likely voters, while the Texas survey of Democrats included 704 likely voters. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 26-28, 2008, and carry margins of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Update: Several other new polls out today. The American Research Group found that in Texas, Obama leads 51 percent to 44 percent, while in Ohio Clinton leads 50 to 45.

A Rasmussen Reports Survey of Ohio has Clinton with a 47 percent to 45 percent lead - making it a statistical tie.

Kenyan Elders Want Clinton to Pay Up in Cattle

It appears that the photo which appeared on the Web the other day of Barack Obama in traditional Somali grab has angered some Kenyan elders.

Reuters reports that they may impose a fine on U.S. presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton, payable in livestock, after a photo of Obama in robes "dragged their people" into the race for the White House. The picture was taken during Sen. Obama's 2006 visit to Wajir in Kenya's remote northeast.

The dispute has angered many in Kenya, especially ethnic Somalis from the northeast, who resent the implication that Obama did anything wrong during his visit.... Mohamed Ibrahim, who attended one of two crisis meetings held in Wajir on Thursday by clan members who hosted Obama on his trip, said Washington must immediately make amends to them and especially to the elder pictured with him.

Wajir elders resolved to file an official complaint with the U.S. Embassy in Nairobi, dropping earlier plans to hold a protest after Friday prayers. They said they would also convene a traditional Somali court to investigate the matter. It can impose fines that are payable in cattle, goats or camels.

"We will go ahead with this case whether Senator Clinton or Democratic party leaders turn up or not," said Ibrahim. "But this whole thing can be avoided if only an apology is made."

The other man in the photo with Obama was retired chief Sheikh Mohamed Hassan, a senior elder, who was due "great respect" community leaders say. If there was no apology, the elders will also ask that U.S. troops stationed near Garissa town be expelled.

The Clinton campaign has now denied having anything to do with the photo appearing on the Drudge Report website.

12:51 PM ET | 02-29-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Clinton's "Children" Ad Her Most "Provocative Yet"

Critics are calling Sen. Hillary Clinton's "Children" ad her most provocative yet, that will bring comparisons to LBJ's "Daisy" ad and Walter Mondale's "Red Phone."

The ad, which is below (along with the "Daisy" and "Red Phone" ads), features a montage of sleeping children while a voice-over says "It's 3 a.m., and a phone is ringing in the White House. Something is happening in the world. Who do you want answering that phone ... On March 4th, your vote will decide who will be in the White House to pick up the phone when it rings at 3 AM."

It's part of the Clinton campaign's argument that Sen. Barack Obama doesn't have the experience to take that call when it comes in. Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic believes that "Arguably, this is her best ... argument .. against Barack Obama, and yet it's taken her 13 months to make it so explicitly."

For his part, Obama told a rally this morning in Texas that he's seen ads like this before. And he added, "It's not about picking up that phone, it's the judgment you show when you pick up that phone." He said that there has been one "red phone" moment recently - the decision to invade Iraq. It's a test, he says, that Clinton, President Bush and John McCain have failed.

Here is LBJ's "Daisy" ad.

And Mondale's '84 Red Phone ad against his Democratic rival Sen. Gary Hart, first aired before the Illinois primary that year and lots after that date. (Very similar to Clinton ad in substance.) And Politico.com reports that Roy Spence, the man who created the "Red Phone" ad, is now supervising Hillary's ad strategy.

Update: Producer Evie Stone also suggest the 2004 Bush-Cheney "Wolves" ad along the same vein.

Texas Officials Say Clinton Aides Threatened Lawsuits

Officials of the Democratic Party in Texas say that aides to Sen. Hillary Clinton threatened to sue the party over its complicated delegate selection process. As a result, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports, the party warned the campaigns Thursday that the election scheduled for next Tuesday night could be delayed or disrupted as a result.

"In a letter sent out late Thursday to both the Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns, Texas Democratic Party lawyer Chad Dunn warned a lawsuit could ruin the Democrats' effort to re-energize voters just as they are turning out in record numbers. ..."

"It has been brought to my attention that one or both of your campaigns may already be planning or intending to pursue litigation against the Texas Democratic Party,'' Dunn wrote in the letter, obtained by the paper. "Such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated Democratic process.''

Spokesmen for both campaigns said they had no plans to sue before the March 4 primary.

Democratic sources quoted in the article said both camps had concerns over the delegate selection process -- which includes both a popular vote and evening caucuses. But they said the Clinton campaign in particular had threatened legal action.

"Officials from Sen. Clinton's campaign at several times throughout the call raised the specter of 'challenging the process,' an official said. "The call consisted of representatives from both campaigns and the Democratic Party.''

A Clinton spokesperson said that they were only trying to see what they were agreeing to "in writing" before they agreed to it.

Texas has 228 delegates. Only 126 delegates are assigned based on how people vote at the ballot box. Another 67 delegates are apportioned based on the number of people who participate in the caucuses that begin in over 8,000 precincts once the polls close at 7 p.m. Only those voters who can prove they voted in the primaries can participate in the caucus. (The remaining 35 are so-called "superdelegates'.")

Update: Marc Ambinder at the Atlantic.com expands a bit on the article in the Fort Worth Telegram. He writes that he spoke to Guy Cecil, the national political director for the Clinton campaign, and asked if he had "forcefully" raised the prospect of a legal battle.

"Absolutely not. There was no threat, 'direct or veiled' to engage in litigation. We asked that the results of the call be put in writing," he said.

Ambinder thinks that the "the campaign is worried about what happens when the voting stops and the caucus starts and believes that the Texas Democratic Party isn't prepared to run the caucuses competently."

Top Clinton Aides Finger Point in Public

In what was otherwise a good day for Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign -- campaign officials announced she has raised $35 million in February, her best monthly total to date -- the shine was taken off a bit by the public squabbling of two of her top campaign aides.

The New York Daily News reports that "The blame game between chief strategist Mark Penn and her top political svengali, Harold Ickes, has burst into the open as Clinton's poll numbers plunge."

The paper reports that Penn, trying to avoid being faulted for the campaign spending so much money and still being behind, told the New York Observer that ""Every single expenditure is reviewed and approved by the campaign, by Harold Ickes and his team, one by one. I have absolutely no budget authority or any administrative control."

For his part Ickes said Penn was the person the most in charge of the campaign to date.

"Besides Hillary Clinton, he is the single most responsible person for this campaign," Ickes told the paper, adding, "He has called the shots."

When reached last night by the News, Penn was conciliatory.

"All I can say is that we are a strong team working together, and we believe we will be successful," he said

February 28, 2008

Using Barack Obama's Middle Name

Using Barack Obama's middle name, Hussein, sounds "like a rallying cry for bigots."

No, that didn't come from anyone in the Barack Obama camp. Nor did it come from any liberal pundit defending him. It actually came from someone many liberals consider akin to Darth Vader - Karl Rove.

"According to an online report by Marc Ambinder, associate editor of the Atlantic, Rove cautioned a private gathering of Republican state executive directors last month that 'Barack Hussein Obama' would sound like a rallying cry for bigots." (He also said it "would perpetuate the notion that Republicans were bigoted and would hurt the party.')

But as Eric Zorn of The Chicago Tribune's "Change of Subject" blog writes, there are still some conservatives who seem determined to use his middle name. Bill Cunningham we know about. But Anne Coulter goes even farther, saying that she likes to call him B. Hussein Obama because she thinks it's "funny."

But Zorn points out one man who didn't use Obama's middle name, even while he threw everything else in the book at him - Alan Keyes, Obama's opponent in his 2004 Senate battle in Illinois.

Keyes, the banty Republican imported from Maryland to heap invective on Obama, seemed to have few limits. He called his opponent a "hard-line Marxist" and a supporter of infanticide. He said Obama was "absolutely determined to make the world safe for criminals" and openly doubted Obama's Christian faith. But he never publicly snarled the words "Barack Hussein Obama."
"We warned him away from using the middle name," replied Bill Pascoe, Keyes' former campaign manager, when I checked with him to see if my colleagues and I had missed something when coming up empty after plumbing our memories and the news archives. Pascoe told me he and former top Keyes consultant Dan Proft had steered him away with the admonishment that such a gambit would be "rude, uncivil, needlessly provocative and incendiary."

Clinton Fund Raising Rebounds in February

Hillary Clinton might be in trouble in the presidential race, but she's seems to be doing OK at the fund raising game.

NPR's David Greene confirmed earlier today that the Clinton camp has brought in $35 million so far in February. The Associated Press describes it as a remarkable recovery for her campaign after a weak January. And most of the money can be used in the presidential primaries, which is where she needed it most. (Clinton also had another $20 million on hand that can only be used in a general election.)

The money came from 300,000 donors, including 200,000 new donors, most of which came from the Internet

But ...

It's probably quite a bit behind what Sen. Barack Obama's campaign has raised this month. Although they wouldn't give out any figures, Obama spokesman Bill Burton did say "We've raised considerably more than that."

Several reports have speculated that the Obama campaign will come close to, or even surpass $50 million.

AP add that "That would make February an astounding fundraising month for the Democrats. At that rate, both candidates would break records for contestants in a primary fight."

Obama Talks and The Media Records

Sen. Barack Obama talks on his campaign plane.

Don Gonyea

NPR's Don Gonyea sends along this photo from Sen. Barack Obama's campaign plane on its way to Beaumont, Texas. It rather nicely illustrates how the media really do hang on presidential candidates' every word. (In particular, notice the hand that has not one, but two digital recorders in front of the senator.)

Update: Don sent along an e-mail with details:

He was asked about whether Hillary Clinton's obituary has been written prematurely.
He responded that all he has to do "is remember New Hampshire."

He said both she and President Clinton are working "tirelessly."

He criticized President Bush for saying the US is not in a recession.

And he urged greater NATO support for Afghanistan, especially boots on the ground.

Obama took questions for about 15 minutes. Getting back to his seat moments before touchdown in Beaumont.

An airplane is not the best place for a a press conference. The audio is terrible because of the drone of the jet engines. The noise also makes it hard to hear him, even if you're as little as 6 feet away.

4:00 PM ET | 02-28-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

McCain: Being Born in Canal Zone Won't Stop Campaign

John McCain wasn't born on U.S. soil. But the GOP frontrunner says he's confident that won't disqualify him from the presidency.

McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone in 1936, while his father was stationed there with the U.S. Navy. Both his parents were U.S. citizens. McCain says he's certain that will meet the constitutional test that the President be a "natural born citizen."

Just in case, his campaign has asked former Solicitor General Ted Olson to research the issue. McCain says his staff also looked into the matter during his unsuccessful campaign in 2000.

Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater encountered the same question when he ran for President in 1964. Goldwater had been born in 1909, before Arizona achieved statehood. It was Lyndon Johnson's landslide, though, not any constitutional prohibition, that kept Goldwater out of the White House.

McCain often jokes about the unsuccessful string of White House hopefuls from Arizona, including Goldwater, Mo Udall, Bruce Babbitt, and himself. He says he hopes to end the losing streak so Arizona parents can once again tell their children with a straight face they can grow up to be President.

-- Scott Horsley

Update: Actually, our own Ken Rudin dealt with this issue in 1998 when he was doing Political Junkie for the Washington Post. This is a good explanation as to why Sen. McCain has no worries about his eligibility for the presidency.

Baker Endorses McCain, Lewis Switches to Obama

The endorsements are coming fast and furious as both parties near the finish line - with the GOP line being a little more in sight than the Democratic one.

Evangelical preacher Jim Hagge of San Antonio, Texas already announced his support for John McCain today. Now NPR's Scott Horsley reports that former Secretary of State Jim Baker has given the Arizona senator the thumbs up. Baker called McCain a "principled pragmatist," who supports conservative goals but who's willing to make tradeoffs in order to get things done.

Those tradeoffs have sometimes worried conservative Republicans who see McCain as too compromising. But then Baker invoked the ultimate comparison in conservative circles - he compared McCain favorable to former President Ronald Reagan.

"Nobody ever accused the Gipper of being squishy. But he also knew how to bridge the divide and reach across the aisle and get things done. At the end of the day, Ronald Reagan found solutions that worked, even if they sometimes, occasionally, failed the rigid tests of the purists."

Meanwhile, the other shoe dropped for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Earlier this month, Rep. John Lewis -- an influential leader in the black caucus in Congress, a long time civil rights leader and a Clinton supporter -- said he was going to cast his superdelegate vote for Sen. Barack Obama in order to reflect the wishes of his constituents.

But Wednesday, he actually announced he was leaving the Clinton camp and moving over to Obama.

Then again, he might have been a little pressured. Last month the Atlanta Journal-Constution's political blog reprinted the transcript of a "robo-call" telling constituents of Lewis's district to call him and to switch his support to Obama. The Obama camp denied making the calls at the time and said it would ask Attorney General Thurbert Baker to investigate.

McCain, Paxson Clashed Over Sale of UHF Airwaves

Scott Woolley of Forbes.com offers a revealing look at the relationship between Sen. John McCain and the head of Paxson Communications, Lowell "Bud" Paxson.

Woolley writes that several facts are well known at this point in time: "Paxson let McCain fly on his corporate jet four times and gave him numerous campaign contributions. In 1999, McCain helped Paxson by writing to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), asking regulators to limit delays and rule on Paxson's pending application to buy a Pittsburgh television station."

But the Pittsburgh station, Lowell writes, would have only given Paxon one more station - he already had 73. A far more important issue to Paxson was the right to be able to sell his UHF airwaves - which could have brought Paxon billions of dollars. And McCain, as the chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, was in a position to help Paxson win--or lose--billions."

"During the six-year-long fight that followed, McCain never wavered from his opposition to the legislation Paxson pushed, which would have diverted those billions into his company's coffers and away from the U.S. Treasury. Whether McCain did any other, smaller favors for Paxson is a question that will draw new attention as the campaign heats up. But, at least on the issue of most consequence, the two strong-willed men were implacable foes."

McCain fought legislation that would allow Paxson and the other broadcasters who owned UHF airwaves to sell those airwaves to cell phone companies and others. In fact, McCain argued to do so was dangerous - on 9/11 in 2001 and during Hurricane Katrina, wireless communications for first responders didn't work as well as needed. The 9/11 commission recommended that "Congress should support pending legislation which provides for the expedited and increased assignment of radio spectrum for public safety purposes."

Finally, at the end of 2005, McCain and his allies succeeded in setting a hard deadline to clear the broadcasters off UHF Channels 52-69. All the money from the sales of these channels will not go to Paxon and the other broadcasters, but into federal government coffers instead.

If you want to know what that meant for Paxson, writes Woolley in conclusion, Paxon stock was worth $10.75 in the mid-90s.

"By November 2005, just before he finally resigned from his company, those same shares had fallen to 37 cents. Last week, the once mighty Paxson Communications, now renamed Ion Media Networks, was delisted from the American Stock Exchange and sold off to Kenneth Griffin's Citadel Investment Group."

Bloomberg Finally Ends Presidential Speculation

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has finally ended speculation that he will run as an independent in the 2008 presidential election -- speculation that began the day he left the Republican Party to become an independent last June

Saying he'd "listened carefully" to those who'd encouraged him, Bloomberg wrote in The New York Times that he absolutely, positively will not run for president in 2008.

New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg answers questions during a press conference after addressing staff members of The World Bank on issues of urbanization in the Preston Auditorium of The World Bank building February 21, 2008 in Washington, DC.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

But while he said he wouldn't be a candidate, he still argued that the right independent could still win.

"I believe that an independent approach to these issues is essential to governing our nation -- and that an independent can win the presidency. I listened carefully to those who encouraged me to run, but I am not -- and will not be -- a candidate for president. I have watched this campaign unfold, and I am hopeful that the current campaigns can rise to the challenge by offering truly independent leadership. The most productive role that I can serve is to push them forward, by using the means at my disposal to promote a real and honest debate."

Finally, he says that he will not sit on the sidelines because what is happening in 2008 is too important to the country and that if a candidate with "an independent, nonpartisan approach -- and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy," he would support that candidate.

Columnist Argues the Farrakhan Litmus Test Must Go

Marjorie Valbrun, a columnist for TheRoot.com, remembers when Louis Farrakhan gave a first controversial speech at Madison Square Garden in the fall if 1985. The media sought out every black prominent political leader they could find and asked if they would denounce him. Valbrun said "something was wrong with this picture."

Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan listens to the applause of the crowd before delivering the keynote address at the Nation of Islam's Saviour's Day convention February 25, 2007 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The title of the speech was 'One Nation Under God: The Confusion, the Guidance, the Warning.'

Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

"Bullying black leaders to represent the entire black race and to speak and think as one, while also treating every loud-mouthed, controversial black leader as if they represent the opinions, political views and personal aspirations of every black American, seemed to me to be a journalistic and political double-standard that was rarely, if ever, applied to white leaders and politicians."

And 23 years later, she argues, things haven't changed much, as witnessed in the exchange Tuesday night between NBC debate moderator Tim Russert and Sen. Barack Obama over remarks made by Farrakhan in support of Obama. (As Valbrun correctly points out, Farrakhan did not officially endorse Obama -- in fact, he specifically said he didn't want to say anything that would hurt Obama, understanding how his remarks would be used -- but said Obama was the "hope of the entire world that America will change.")

"Why is it that only after they repudiate Farrakhan are they then deemed not to be closet black militants?," she writes. Neither Farrakhan ("Most blacks in this country could give two hoots what the man says or thinks"), nor Al Sharpton nor Jesse Jackson have the influence over black Americans that white Americans think they do.

And she says that white politicians are not held to the same standard. For instance, when talk show host Don Imus made racist remarks about the black female basketball players at Rutgers University.

"Reporters did not run out in droves to ask white politicians to reject Don Imus after he made his remarks about the black female basketball players at Rutgers University. White politicians did not eagerly line up to do so. Nor did they repudiate fellow white politicians who did not. A few, and only a few, said they would no longer go on the Imus show. (Tim Russert, who appeared often on the Imus show, was not among those who said they would no longer be a guest.)"

Valbrun says considering that it's been 23 years, and that very few black Americans look to Farrakhan for "direction on how to vote," it's time to put "put the Farrakhan litmus test to rest -- for good."

McCain Picks Up Important Conservative Endorsement

Conservative talk-show host Bill Cunningham told Robert Siegel on All Things Considered Wednesday that he no longer considered himself a John McCain supporter, but would now support Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton. (Cunningham was furious with McCain for apologizing for remarks Cunningham made at an Ohio rally -- including calling Barack Obama a "hack, Chicago-style Daley politician" and constantly referring to him as Barack Hussein Obama.)

But there are apparently still some prominent conservatives who want to back McCain.

NPR's Scott Horsley reports that McCain won the support yesterday of Texas evangelist John Hagee. Hagee leads a megachurch in San Antonio, and founded the organization Christians United for Israel.

Hagee is a leader in the Christian Zionist movement, who predicted a showdown between Israel and Iran in his 2006 book Jerusalem Countdown. He's also written extensively about Armageddon, but says that's not behind his backing of Israel or Senator McCain.

"Our support of Israel has absolutely nothing to do with an end times prophetic scenario. Our support of Israel is because we feel their cause is just. They are a democracy in the middle east that deserves the support of America and the Christian people of America."

McCain, who has had trouble winning the support of evangelicals, said he was grateful for Hagee's support.

February 27, 2008

Columnist: Obama's Speeches "Empty Rhetoric"

When Illinois Senator Barack Obama talks about change and hope and bringing America together, he often brings the usually large crowds at his campaign events to their feet. But after listening to Gideon Rachman, the Financial Times chief foreign affairs columnist talk to Day to Day's Madeleine Brand about Obama, you rather get the feeling that Rachman would just sit on his hands.

Rachman told Brand today that he thinks that Obama's speeches are overrated and mostly filled with empty rhetoric.

He's even more blunt in his latest FT column. He writes that he finds himself strangely unmoved by Obama's speeches.

"[Obama] sounds to me like a man doing an impression of what he thinks a great speech might be like. It is the kind of empty exhortation that usually gives politicians a bad name. Peter Sellers, a British comedian of the 1960s, caught the genre nicely in a parody speech: 'Let us assume a bold thrust and go forward together. Let us carry the fight against ignorance to the four corners of the earth, because it is a fight that concerns us all.' Mr Obama might easily give a speech like that -- although he would probably strip out some of the detail."

Rachman says the difference between Obama and great speakers like the Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr., or Winston Churchill, or John F. Kennedy is that they were "truly challenging their audiences." But he also argues that Obama's disturbing vagueness might be part of a deliberate political strategy. "And it makes sense," he writes. "The more a candidate gets stuck into the detail, the more likely he is to bore or antagonize voters. Appealing to people's emotions is less dangerous and more effective."

He notes this is why the Clinton campaign has to be careful when it "sniffs" that just because Obama gives great speeches that doesn't mean he'll be a great president.

"I would reverse that. Just because Mr Obama gives lousy, empty speeches, it does not mean that he will be a lousy, empty president."

Nader Wasn't Just Strong in Florida in 2000

In this week's Political Junkie column, Ken Rudin takes a look at Ralph Nader's newly announced presidential campaign. He writes about how upset Democrats are with Nader, particularly their belief that he cost Al Gore the 2000 presidential election - Nader polled more than 97,000 in Florida, a state George Bush eventually won by only 537 votes.

But as Ken points out, it wasn't just in Florida where Nader performed well.

But Florida 2000 will always be part of his legacy. The truth is, the 97,000-plus votes he got there represented just 1.6 percent of the total. He drew far larger percentages that year in Alaska (10.1 percent), Vermont (6.9), Massachusetts (6.4) and Rhode Island (6.1). In six states - Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, as well as the District of Columbia - he exceeded 5 percent of the vote. But it's Florida, with its chads, butterflies and Katherine Harris, that will always be a reminder of "what if." As David Ogden of Walnut Creek, Calif., writes, "If there's one person responsible for the Bush mess (other than Bush himself), it's Nader."
Then again, Brian Conner of Boston writes, "Every time I pick up a newspaper there's another reason why Al Gore lost. It was his inability to win Tennessee or Arkansas. It was the gun lobby. It was Ralph Nader. It was Bill Clinton's moral failures. The truth is, Al Gore lost in 2000 because he stunk as a candidate. He's the reason why we have George W. Bush."

As Ken notes, the Democrats worked hard to keep Nader off as many ballots as they could in 2004 - he only was able to run in 34 states. And he can probably expect a similar effort this time out as well.

New Poll Shows Obama Leading in Texas

A new Survey USA poll of Texas voters shows that Senator Barack Obama has pulled into a slight lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton. According to the group's poll of 2000 Texans from Feb. 23 to 25, Obama now leads 49 percent to 45 percent. A week ago Clinton led a Survey USA poll of Texas 50 to 45.

But it's the pollster's breakdown of how the vote is changing within the various demographics in the state that is so fascinating:

SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive, allow you to see the movement within the critical demographic subpopulations. Among Hispanic voters, Clinton led by 33 points last week, leads by 13 points today. Among women, Clinton had led by 27, now by 11. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 6, now by 22. In North Texas (which includes Dallas and Fort Worth), Clinton had led by 2, now trails by 19. In East Texas (which includes Houston), Obama had led by 5, now leads by 18. Among registered Democrats, Clinton had led by 14, now by 2. Among voters focused on the Economy, Clinton had led by 5, now trails by 11. Among those who attend religious services regularly, Clinton had led by 7, now trails by 15. Among Pro-Life voters, Clinton had led by 1, now trails by 14. Among seniors, Liberals, voters in Central Texas, South Texas and West Texas, Clinton's support is holding.

But there are hints in the data that Clinton can still win. The pollsters determined that about 25 percent of the people they surveyed had already voted (Texas allows residents to vote before election day.) Of that 25 percent, 51 percent voted for Clinton while 46 percent voted for Obama.

Anchorage Mayor to Run Against Sen. Stevens

It's been a tough year for Alaska Republican Senator Ted Stevens. Last July, the FBI raided one of his homes as part of a wide-ranging corruption investigation into ties between Alaska politicians and the oil services giant VECO. Stevens has refuted the charge.

The Anchorage Daily News has also reported that "The government is also investigating the extensive connections between Ted Stevens, his son Ben Stevens, who is a former Alaska Senate president, and Alaska and Seattle fishing companies, according to other subpoenas that have become public."

Now comes word that Stevens may face his toughest competitor in years in his 2008 contest to keep his seat in the Senate. Politico.com reports that "Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is expected to announce this afternoon that he'll be running against Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), setting up a political battle between an iconic figure in Alaska politics against one of the rising Democratic stars statewide."

Stevens faces self-funding businessman David Cuddy in the Republican primary, which will be held August 26. And Begich still has to win his party's nomination, where he is set to face former state Rep. Ray Metcalfe.

Obama And McCain Trade Accusations About Iraq

It's certainly starting to feel and sound like a general election campaign. Sen. John McCain and Sen Barack Obama, the Republican and Democratic front runners respectively, traded accusations with each other about Iraq Wednesday.

As NPR's Scott Horsley reports John McCain says he didn't watch the Democratic debate, but he still took time to talk about Barack Obama's response to a question posed by NBC's Tim Russert.

Obama answered that if al Qaida were to establish a base in Iraq after U-S troops withdraw as he wants them to, he would be willing to respond. McCain suggested during a town hall meeting in Texas by that time it would be too late.

"I have some news. Al Qaida is IN Iraq. Al Qaida. It's called al Qaida in Iraq."

NPR's Don Gonyea reports that Obama didn't wait long to reply

"I got some news for YOU John McCain," said Obama, "There was no such thing as al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush" took the country to war there.

Obama mocked McCain's past pledges to follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell, saying "so far all he's done is follow George Bush."

"I respect John McCain," he continued, " ... but he's tied to the politics of the past. We're the party of the future. He's the party of YESTERDAY."

As Tribune Media's The Swamp blog notes, " ... the two gave us a little taste of how they plan to deal with each other if they end up as their parties' nominees. McCain will play the experienced veteran, hinting that Obama doesn't know what he's talking about. And Obama will suggest that McCain isn't on top of his game."

Cunningham Furious Over McCain Apology

Hell hath no furry like a conservative talk show host scorned ... or having a politician apologize for something the talk show host said when he doesn't think he said anything wrong.

Almost immediately after Sen. John McCain apologized for and repudiated the remarks Cincinnati talk-show host Bill Cunningham made before a McCain campaign event, Cunningham fired back.

Late yesterday Cunningham appeared on the Hannity and Colmes show on Fox News and told conservative host Sean Hannity that "Well, my friend, Sean, McCain should be repudiating Democrats and leaving conservatives alone."

Cunningham also told CNN that McCain "threw me under a bus -- under the 'Straight Talk Express.' "

"I, for one, regret that John McCain is the nominee of the conservative party," he said.

Fox News reports that although he apologized for Cunningham's remarks, he told reporters abroad his bus "... that conservative independent groups pursuing a similar line to Cunningham's could be impossible to control.

"I think you have to worry about that, particularly the 527s," McCain said, referring to the independent advocacy groups that are not subject to contributor limits.

The activities of these independent groups is one reason that Democratic front runner Sen. Barack Obama says he is not ready to commit himself to public financing of his campaign. Obama says that until he wins the nomination and has a chance to talk to McCain about what these groups might do during a campaign, he won't give an answer.

William F. Buckley Dead at 82

The New York Times website reports that leading conservative writer and commentator William F. Buckley has died at age 82.

More details as they come.

Update: The Corner at National Review Online, the web version of the magazine Buckley founded, is collecting readers' comments about Buckley.

More: Here is the YouTube version of the classic talking-duel from the Buckley versus Gore Vidal debate in 1968.

More: Here is an hour-long Charlie Rose show that features many clips of Buckley.

Did Russert Actually Help Obama With Farrakhan Issue?

It was perhaps the most dramatic moment of last night's Democratic presidential debate. NBC co-moderator and host of Meet The Press, Tim Russert, asked Illinois Senator Barack Obama about an endorsement he had received from the controversial leader of the Nation of Islam, Louis Farrakhan. Russert asked Obama if he would reject Farrakhan and his endorsement. Here's the exchange:

(The issue of Farrakhan, anti-Semitism and Obama's stand on Israel has been a consistent leitmotiv with many in the American Jewish Community, as we covered yesterday in this blog.)

Obama then at some length went on to say that he denounced Farrakhan's virulent anti-Semitic statements and had been doing so from quite some time, since they were both from the Chicago area. Sen. Clinton challenged him to "reject, not denounce" Farrakhan. Obama said he didn't see much difference between reject and denounce, but if she wanted he would "reject and denounce" Farrakhan.

Some pundits, like Andrew Sullivan at The Daily Dish, thought it was not a good moment for Obama, but he was overwhelmed with comments from readers who disagreed. By having Russert raise the Farrakhan issue now, many of his readers commented, put it out on the table and made it harder for any Obama rival to use it against him - since he had been able to answer the question about Farrakhan during a much-watched debate.

Shmuel Rosner, chief U.S. correspondent for the Israeli paper Ha'aretz, wrote in his blog that Obama's answers to the question gave him the upperhand over what he called Clinton's attempt to "score points against Obama in the Jewish community."

But the reaction to Obama's comments also seem to depend on the writer's political point of view. Byron York at the conservative National Review Online wrote that Obama "stepped into the Farrakhan trap" and that he seemed to try and spin his way through his answer to the question until Clinton forced him to say he rejected Farrakhan.

But Josh Marshall of the liberal Talking Points Memo said it was not a classy move by Russert to even ask the question in the first place. "As a Jew and perhaps more importantly simply as a sentient being I found it disgusting. It was a nationwide, televised, MSM version of one of those noxious Obama smear emails."

Ohio Debate Tougher, But No Knockout Blows

The judges' scorecards are in. And the winner is ... it's a tie.

That's the general take-away from political commentators and pundits after last night's Democratic debate in Cleveland. Ohio. Most observers felt that the debate was polite but tougher than last week's debate in Texas. But neither candidate was able to land a knock out blow, and that is more of a problem for Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama.

The Los Angeles Times writes that the "moment of truth" that Clinton needed never came. While she was able to nudge him throughout the evening deploying "everything in her arsenal," Obama "played out the clock" and "while he did not walk away unscathed from the debate, the damage Clinton inflicted was minor."

"No runs, no hits, no errors," said veteran Democratic political strategist Bill Carrick, who is not aligned with either candidate. "They both drew blood, but they did it cautiously. That was perfectly fine for Obama, but Hillary needed something more dramatic. She didn't get it."

The Boston Globe reports that at times last night "Clinton's frustration at her position was evident." San Francisco Chronicle blogger Carolyn Lochhead said Clinton "again failed to knock front-runner Sen. Barack Obama off stride..."

An analysis of the debate by The Associated Press said the candidates had "some testy exchanges" but that it was "a mostly somber and policy-filled debate that seemed unlikely to alter the political calculus of the race."

February 26, 2008

Richardson Hints He May Make Endorsement

Well, he took his time, but it now looks like New Mexico Governor (and former Democratic presidential candidate) Bill Richardson might make a decision this week and give an endorsement.

"I'm just not trying to be cute. I just have felt that an endorsement by me, I don't think it is that significant," he said on CNN's Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer. "But I still might do it."

The endorsement of Richardson (along with fellow former candidate John Edwards) has been much sought by both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. It could turn out to be a key endorsement particularly with the Latino community in next week's Texas primary.

CNN's Political Ticker blog says that, in an interview with Wolf Blitzer, Richardson wouldn't say if he was leaning to Clinton or Obama. He praised both candidates and said they are running a "classic campaign." But he did say that he didn't agree with the Clinton campaign's assertion that Obama doesn't have the experience to be president.

Richardson's "maybe, sorta" endorsement announcement follows the news that earlier today another former presidential candidate, Sen. Chris Dodd, announced his support for Obama.

McCain Apologizes for Talk Show Hosts Remarks

Talk show host Bill Cunningham is not on the list of Sen. John McCain's favorite people today. McCain apologized for remarks Cunningham made while warming up a campaign crowd.

The Associated Press reports that Cunningham referred to the Democratic senator as Barack Hussein Obama three times during his talk. Hussein is his middle name, but many conservatives pundits use it as a way to remind people about Obama's family connections to Islam.

"Now we have a hack, Chicago-style Daley politician who is picturing himself as change. When he gets done with you, all you're going to have in your pocket is change," Cunningham said as the audience laughed.
The time will come, Cunningham added, when the liberal-leaning media will "peel the bark off Barack Hussein Obama" and tell the truth about his relationship with indicted fundraiser Antoin "Tony" Rezko and how Obama got "sweetheart deals" in Chicago.

McCain quickly distanced himself from the radio talk show host after his appearance.

"I apologize for it," McCain told reporters, addressing the issue before they had a chance to ask hium about Cunningham's comments.

"I did not know about these remarks, but I take responsibility for them. I repudiate them," he said. "My entire campaign I have treated Senator Obama and Senator (Hillary Rodham) Clinton with respect. I will continue to do that throughout this campaign."

McCain said that he wasn't sure who had arranged for Cunningham to address the crowd, but he was sure it was in coordination his campaign. McCain, who has never met Cunningham, said nothing like that would ever happen again.

Boxer: Evidence Proves EPA Chief Overruled Staff

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Stephen Johnson is gonna have more 'splaining to do.

At least that the opinion of Sen. Barbara Boxer, the chair of the Senate's Committee on the Environment and Public Works. She released more evidence today that Johnson overruled the almost unanimous opinion of his staff not to block the efforts of California and 15 other states to combat greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks.

As Talking Points Memo notes, the Johnson decision made the White House and the automobile industry happy.

Boxer says the evidence - which includes talking points prepared for a senior official in the EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality for a meeting with Johnson - illustrates how opposed the senior staff was to his decision.

One of the talking points reads: "From what I have read and the people I have talked to, it is obvious to me that there is no legal or technical justification for denying this. The law is very specific about what you are allowed to consider, and even if you adopt the alternative interpretations that have been suggested by the automakers, you still wind up in the same place."

Another reads: "You have to find a way to get this done. If you cannot, you will face a pretty big personal decision about whether you are able to stay in the job under those circumstances. This is a choice only you can make, but I ask you to think about the history and the future of the agency in making it. If you are asked to deny this waiver, I fear the credibility of the agency that we both love will be irreparably damaged."

"These documents paint a picture of an Environmental Protection Agency in crisis," Boxer told a news conference. "They show the dedicated professional staff of the EPA working hard to do what they are paid to do by the American people - protect our health and our environment. At the same time, we see more and more evidence of Administrator Johnson ignoring the science and the facts, and discarding the advice of his professional staff."

Boxer said the decision would be overturned by the next administration, or the courts, but that Johnson "can save the taxpayers time and money, and can get us started cleaning up our air if he would simply follow the law, the facts, and the advice of his agency professionals."

The Clinton Camp and Obama's 'Problem' With Israel

While Illinois Senator Barack Obama has made in-roads into almost every major demographic group in the Democratic party, reports in the media and on the Internet seems to indicate that there are still segments of American Jewish voters that feel uneasy about his candidacy

And it's a disconnect that several media outlets say the Clinton campaign is trying to exploit.

In a Newsweek article entitled "Good for the Jews?," writers Michael Hirsh and Dan Ephron point to a phone call Anne Lewis (a senior adviser to Hillary Clinton) had in January with leaders of major American Jewish organizations.

"During the call, Lewis energetically contrasted Clinton's pro-Israel credentials with those of Barack Obama. To make her point, she said that Obama's 'chief foreign-policy adviser' is Zbigniew Brzezinski, says one participant who would talk about the call only if he were not identified."

Only Brzezinski is not Obama's chief foreign-policy adviser. He has advised Obama "on occasion." But as the writers point out, his name is "toxic" with the American Jewish community. And the Lewis incident is not the only case where Clinton campaign staffers have sent around what the staffers suggest is negative information about Obama's relationship to Israel.

An article in the Chicago Sun-Times notes that "More than a year into his run for president, Obama is still explaining his record, relationships and religion to Jewish voters." And a posting on Andew Sullivan's Daily Dish blog at TheAtlantic.com talks about how many American Jews are receiving e-mails from the Clinton campaign (and from Republicans as well) that contain articles which criticize Obama's stance on Israel.

M.J. Rosenberg of TPMCafe, who has written in the past about receiving similar e-mails, notes that we'll probably see even more of this kind of behavior as we get closer to Texas and Ohio.

The Newsweek article notes that the Obama people are fighting back. They've gathered endorsements from many prominent members of the Jewish community. "Senators Clinton, Obama, McCain and Governor Huckabee have demonstrated their support for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship," AIPAC president Howard Friedman wrote to Newsweek.

And in a conversation with Jewish leaders Sunday in Cleveland, Obama painted himself as a solid supporter of Israel. He also noted that "there is a strain within the pro-Israel community that says unless you adopt an unwavering pro-Likud approach to Israel, then you're anti-Israel, and that can't be the measure of our friendship with Israel." The Jerusalem Post reports that he also "criticized the notion that anyone who asks tough questions about advancing the peace process or tries to secure Israel by anyway other than 'just crushing the opposition' is being 'soft or anti-Israel.' "

Marty Peretz, the editor-in-chief of The New Republic and a fervent supporter of Israel, wrote Monday that the views Obama expressed in the Cleveland meeting that, while not "totally exactly" like his "they are enough like mine to let me sleep calmly."

The Rise of the Small Donor in U.S. Politics

The Internet has resulted in many changes in the way American political campaigns are run.

Could any politician run for office without using e-mail? (A couple of the now-absent presidential candidates actually announced their candidacies via e-mail.) Political blogs have become must reading for almost everyone interested in politics. Presidential debates occasionally feature questions asked via video-sharing sites like YouTube.

But the biggest change may be in the way that many Americans now donate money to campaigns - via the Internet. That one change - which has really blossomed this election cycle - has opened up a whole new "ocean" of possible donors for candidates. And it's also one of the reasons why Sen. John McCain faces a serious fund raising shortfall against a Democratic candidate - particularly if his name is Barack Obama.

Politico.com looks at the number of "small donors" that each of the three remaining presidential candidates have attracted. About 150,000 small donors have given to the McCain campaign, accounting for about $11.4 million of the $52 million he has raised.

But McCain's totals are dwarfed by what the Democrats have done. Hillary Clinton has raised $16 million from about 225,000 small donors. Barack Obama ... well, he's so far ahead the number seem unreal

Obama has "raised nearly $47 million from more than 800,000 small givers through January. His campaign now says more than 900,000 people have donated to his cause."

And here's the part that many Republicans find scary - 97 percent of that almost 1 million donors aren't even close to reaching their donation limit of $2,300. Which means that Obama could go back to them again, and maybe even again after that.

(And let's not forget the fund raising success of Texas Rep. Ron Paul. Paul may not have come close to winning the GOP nomination, but his legion of online supporters and small donors have enabled him too raise enough money to continue his campaign.)

As Politico notes, imagine how that may increase when the Democratic presidential nominee finally emerges and many of those now contributing to the losing candidate's campaign switch to the winner.

Could Romney Re-enter Presidential Race?

Josh Romney has got the bug.

After spending much of the past year helping his father, Mitt Romney, during his failed (so far - see below) bid for the Republican 2008 presidential nomination, the younger Romney says he's been approached to run as a Republican against 2nd Congressional District Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah.

"I haven't ruled it out," Romney, 32, told the Deseret Morning News, a Salt Lake City daily. "I'm pretty young, but I've had good experience on the campaign trail."

Romney says he can also count on his father's supporters in the state if he does decide to run.

And in a bit of a surprise, Josh says don't count dad out yet. He said speculation that his father could wind up as a vice presidential candidate, or even as the party's nominee, "possible. Unlikely but possible."

Although the elder Romney has suspended his campaign, the Deseret News reports that "McCain's campaign has been hurt by a report that implied he had an improper relationship with a female lobbyist. Political pundits have said that could lead to an opening for another candidate, especially Mitt Romney."

Clinton Gets the Backing of Her Own Daytime TV Star

Barack Obama has Oprah Winfrey. And now Hillary Clinton has her very own daytime TV star in her corner - Ellen DeGeneres.

Clinton was giving a speech on a stage at the George Washington University when her backdrop dissolved to show DeGeneres on her set in Los Angeles. The Tribune's The Swamp blog reports that she told Clinton that she has an important question to ask her.

"Now I have said I have a problem with glitter. It should be banned. It doesn't warn you. There's glitter on your fingers. There's glitter everywhere. You open a card, you open wrapping paper. Will you put a ban on glitter?"
"You know, I have been asked so many difficult questions in my life and, you know, some questions you can answer yes or no," Clinton replied. "But when it comes to glitter, what on earth would grade school children do for their special projects? So maybe, maybe what we do is we ban glitter for anyone over 12?"

DeGeneres said she liked that idea and that she knew that Clinton was good at coming up with solutions. Then she asked Clinton how important it was to break Barack Obama's win streak. Clinton at first said that they were going to win "Ohio and Michigan," but then realizing that Michigan was the wrong state, switch back to Ohio and Texas. She told DeGeneres that winning those states was as important "as banning glitter."

The Clinton campaign complained yesterday that they believe there is a double standard in the way Obama and Clinton are being covered by the national media. Looking to generate some more positive media coverage, Clinton asked DeGeneres to appear with her at campaign events. Since she couldn't get out of her TV job, she promised to "interrupt" Clinton at events instead.

Yesterday's "interruption" can be seen on today's version of her show.

8:45 AM ET | 02-26-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

New Polls Show Obama Surging Ahead of Clinton

Two new national polls show that Illinois Senator Barack Obama is surging ahead of his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton in the battle for the Democratic presidential primary.

In a New York Times/CBS News 54 percent said they wanted Obama to be the party's presidential nominee, while 38 percent preferred Clinton. The Boston Globe reports that this is a big swing in Obama's favor since the last Times/CBS poll in late January which had the two senators tired at 41 percent.

"The poll found similar swings in Obama's favor on other questions. For example, asked how they would vote if the race were between Obama and Republican John McCain, 50 percent said they would support Obama to 38 percent for McCain, while respondents were split evenly, at 46 percent each, when the choice was between McCain and Clinton. Obama gained ground within nearly every sector, the poll found."

And an Associated Press/Ipsos poll released yesterday showed a closer race, but with a lead for Obama. He led Clinton by a narrow margin, 46 percent to 43 percent. In the last AP/Ipsos poll in early February, Clinton has a five-point lead.

The AP poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, and the Times poll 3 percentage points. Those margins increased to about 5 percentage points when questions were asked of Democrats or Republicans only.

February 25, 2008

Attorney General to Website: Let's Be Buddies Again

A few month ago, the center-liberal website/blog TMPMuckraker.com ran an article about what it alleged were a series of "false statements DOJ spokesman Brian Roehrkasse had made during the course of the US Attorney scandal before being promoted to Director of the Office of Public Affairs at the end of last summer."

After the article appeared, TPMuckraker and its mothership, Talking Points Memo, suddenly found it was persona non grata with the DOJ and saw its supply of press releases from the department dry up. Josh Marshal says this sudden dry spell also started right around the time Mr. Roehrkasse got his new job as the head of the office that sends them out.

Marshall says that various explanation for the dry spell followed - "like an apparent budget shortfall or bandwidth dearth that made the costs of sending us their email press releases prohibitive."

Well, Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) and others took the matter up with the new Attorney General Michael Mukasey ... and he must have found a few extra dollars in the kitty because on Friday, the press releases once again began pouring into the TPM in-boxes.

Roehrkasse told The New York Times that the issue was whether TPM was a "credentialed" news organization.As Marshall writes in conclusion, " ... suffice it to say that we are no more 'credentialed' today than we were in October. So I'll let people draw their own conclusions."

What Marshall is too modest to mention is that his and TPM's reporting on the DOJ fired-attorney scandal last week won a George K. Polk Award for legal reporting.

Why The Globe Didn't Run the Times' McCain Story

When The New York Times ran its much-criticized story (even the paper's own ombudsman attacked it in his column on Sunday) about Sen. John McCain and his relationship with a lobbyist named Vicki Iseman, one of the papers that didn't run the Times piece was The Boston Globe. Instead, the Globe went with an update on the story from The Washington Post.

Which was a bit unusual since the Globe is owned by the Times. When asked for a comment on why the Globe did this, editor Marty Baron said "no comment."

But according to an item in the Top of the Ticket blog in the Los Angeles Times political section, there was a reason. Andrew Malcolm wrote that a senior editor from the Globe contacted him with an interesting bit of information. While the Globe's website did contain a link to the original Times story, the Globe editor sent him another link - to a transcript of a chat with Walter V. Robinson, a Globe investigative reporter, Pulitzer Prize winner, editor and now a journalism professor at Northeastern University.

The chat is about a series of articles that Robinson wrote on Jan. 5, Jan. 7 and Jan. 9 in 2000 about McCain's connections to Paxson Communications (one of the firms represented by Iseman) and other special interests.

"Robinson found McCain traveling on corporate jets owned by special interests to give speeches against special interests within days of receiving political contributions from the special interests' executives. McCain and the executives denied any quid pro quo, and noted his actions were legal at the time."

Which, we can now understand [Malcolm writes], is a real reason behind the Globe not publishing the New York Times' "scoop." Because it wasn't news. The Boston paper, a Times subsidiary, had already exposed the same issues and people and denials regarding McCain in articles written by its own reporter fully eight years ago.
"What's it like," one of the online chatters asks the now retired reporter, "to be first on a story and then see some other outfit redo it and get huge national play?"

To which Robinson simply replies, "Imitation is the highest...etc."

Bob Inglis Knows How to Get Down and Boggie!

OK, it's the age of the Internet video and all of the presidential campaigns have posted numerous made-for-the-'Net videos on video-sharing sites like YouTube. And many outside groups and supporters have created their own videos and musical numbers to celebrate their candidates.

But few of them can top incumbent Republican South Carolina Congressman Bob Inglis for sheer get-down, flunky ... boogy-ness - in a sort of awkward, white-guy kind of way.

The Inglis for Congress Committee has put together a video that would make John Travolta ... give up dancing forever. Under the motto of "To first lead a nation, you must lead a line dance," the congressman for the "reliably conservative" District 4 House seat uses the video to invite folks to an event on Saturday March 8th. It's funny and self-deprecating and well, painful to watch in a "I have this recurring nightmare about high school dances in the 70s" kind of way.

But it's also a great example of how candidates can reach whole new audiences in new ways - especially younger audiences.

So get on your boogie shoes and watch the video!

(Hat tip to NPR's Robert Smith.)

12:17 PM ET | 02-25-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Pics of Obama in Muslim Garb Circulated on Web

Media news aggregation site The Drudge Report is reporting that Clinton staffers are distributing pictures of Barack Obama dressed in the traditional garb of a Somali elder. The picture was taken in 2006 while Obama was on a five-country tour of Africa.

This is the photo being distributed around the Internet of Sen. Barack Obama in traditional Somali garb.

AP photo

"Wouldn't we be seeing this on the cover of every magazine if it were HRC?" wrote one campaign staffer in an email allegedly obtained by the Drudge Report.

"On the very day that Senator Clinton is giving a speech about restoring respect for America in the world, her campaign has engaged in the most shameful, offensive fear-mongering we've seen from either party in this election," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said in an e-mail to reporters.

But in an e-mail response just sent out by the Clinton campaign, they say Obama should be "ashamed."

"If Barack Obama's campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed," said Maggie Williams, the Clinton campaign manager. "Hillary Clinton has worn the traditional clothing of countries she has visited and had those photos published widely. This is nothing more than an obvious and transparent attempt to distract from the serious issues confronting our country today and to attempt to create the very divisions they claim to decry.

Drudge also included photos of other U.S. politicians dressed in native garb during visits to foreign countries, including Clinton.

Meanwhile, Andrew Sullivan of The Daily Dish writes that if the Clinton campaign wanted to push the Obama family's connections to Islam in front of the U.S. public, it would have been easier for the Clinton campaign to just distribute this column about Obama's Kenyan family by New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof.

Keene: McCain Has a Lot to Prove to Conservative

If you want a clear picture about why conservatives are reluctant to whole-heartedly throw their support behind John McCain, you should listen to this interview with David Keene, the chairman of the American Conservative Union, from Morning Edition. (Questionable stories in The New York Times will not be enough.)

Sen. John McCain gives his victory speech after his Feb. 12 primary victory in Virginia.

Sen. John McCain celebrates Feburary 12, 2008 in Alexandria, Virginia, after sweeping the Maryland, DC and Virginia primaries. Directly behind McCain are Rep. Tom David (r) and his wife, former Virginia state Senator Jeannemarie Devolites Davis.

Tim Sloan/AFP/Getty Images

In Keene's opinion, McCain will have to prove that he doesn't want to remake the Republican Party.

The ACU gives politicians a conservative rating. McCain's lifetime rating is 82.3 percent - anything above 80 is considered conservative. But his most recent rating, from 2006, is 65. "We don't consider him conservative," Keene says. "His ratings don't reflect that he's conservative."

"But I don't think when conservatives look at John McCain, it is simply his voting record," Keene says. "It's more than that that's caused problems. For a long time, his position and the position of his staff was that he didn't have a problem with conservatives. He had a problem with some inside-the-Beltway conservative leaders.... If he's learned anything from the primary process, it has to have been his problem is not inside the Beltway. His problem is with Republican primary voters who describe themselves as conservatives."

Keene pointed to what happened after McCain's victory in the Virginia primary as an example of the kind of incident that worries conservatives. As he gave his victory speech, one of the people joining him on stage was Rep. Tom Davis. Davis is stepping down from his district after 14 years House in the next election, but he recently strongly criticized the Republican Party. He was there with his wife, Jeannemarie Devolites Davis. Although she recently lost her seat in the Virginia senate, Keane says conservatives have considered her the state's most liberal Republican for a long time.

Keene says is McCain was trying to send a message, it wasn't one that conservatives liked.

Obama Gains in Ohio, But Clinton Lead Still Strong

Sen. Barack Obama has picked up some ground on Sen. Hillary Clinton in Ohio, but Clinton still holds a double-digit lead, accord to a new Ohio Poll from Quinnipiac University. She now leads Obama by a 51 percent to 40 percent margin. A Feb. 14 poll had Clinton ahead 55-34.

The pollsters attribute the change to a swing to Obama among college-educated likely Democratic voters. Clinton's large margins among women, 53 - 36 percent; older voters, whites and those without a college education keep her out front. Obama's lead among African-Americans is large, but smaller than in other states. Normally Obama has been taking 80 percent of this demographic in other primaries and caucuses but in Ohio the poll shows that lead at 68 - 20 percent.

"Sen. Clinton's lead remains substantial, but the trend line should be worrisome for her in a state that even her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has said she must win," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Obama, to no one's surprise given his momentum nationally, has made inroads, especially among some of Sen. Clinton's softer supporters," said Brown. "If she is to stop his momentum in Ohio, she must retain her margins among her core backers - women, older voters and those lower on the social-economic and education scale."

The survey was carried out between February 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,853 Ohio registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percent.

9:30 AM ET | 02-25-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Obama Campaign Ads Not Entirely Truthful

Sen. Hillary Clinton was mad as hell and she wasn't going to take it any more. Over the weekend, she blasted her rival, Sen. Barack Obama, for a pair of campaign ads that she said distorted the truth. And according to Brooks Jackson, director of factcheck.org, she might be on to something.

Jackson talked to Liane Hansen about the claims Sunday morning on Weekend Edition about the veracity of the claims; the two flyers tackle Clinton's positions on trade - and specifically, the North American Trade Agreement - and health care. They have been publicly available for several weeks.

Jackson said that the flyer on free trade in particular is "misleading." It quotes Clinton as saying that NAFTA was a "boon" to the U.S. But she never said that. In fact, she never even came close to saying it - the actual words come from a newspaper article that was trying to characterize her position on free trade. Jackson also noted that a Clinton biographer has already written that Sen. Clinton only reluctantly supported her husband's efforts in this area.

It's a bit different with the health care flyer. The flyer says that Clinton's health care plan would force all Americans to buy health care, even if they can't afford it. Jackson says that claim is "out of context" but to call it false is itself an exaggeration.

But it also appears that what is sauce for the gander is sauce for the goose. Clinton's campaign is no innocent babe in the woods when it comes to distorting campaign ads. Jackson notes that Clinton sent out a mailer that twisted Obama's words and gave a false picture of his proposals on Social Security, home foreclosures and energy. Her flyer accused Obama of favoring a $1 trillion tax increase on Social Security, which Jackson says is a "big distortion."

If It's Election Year, Ralph Nader Must Be Running

For all the excitement about this year's presidential race, with soaring TV ratings, record numbers of voters turning out to vote or participate in primaries and caucuses, and a selection of candidates quite unlike any previous presidential election, there was always that nagging feeling that something was missing.

Ralph Nader announces his candidacy on NBC's Meet The Press

Political activist Ralph Nader speaks during a taping of Meet the Press at the NBC studios February 24, 2008 in Washington, DC. Nader announced on the show that he will run for president as an independent candidate.

Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images for Meet the Press

Well, we can all relax now. Ralph Nader says he's going to run for president again.

Consumer activist Ralph Nader announced Sunday that he will run an independent campaign for president because the Democrats and Republicans are not addressing issues that a majority of the American people care about.

"You go from Iraq to Palestine/Israel, from Enron to Wall Street, from Katrina to the bungling of the Bush administration, to the complicity of the Democrats in not stopping him on the war, stopping him on the tax cuts, getting a decent energy bill through," he told NBC's "Meet the Press," and you have to ask yourself, as a citizen: Should we elaborate the issues that the two [parties] are not talking about?"

This is Nader's fifth run at the Oval Office. His biggest moment came in 2000, when he received 2.4 million votes. Many Democrats blame for taking enough votes away from Al Gore to throw the election to George Bush. (Nader once again rejected that argument Sunday.) But in 2004, he got slightly less than half a million votes out of the 122 million cast.

Sen. Barack Obama, who once worked for a Nader group in New York praised him, but also called him a "perennial candidate."

"His view is, unless it's Ralph Nader, that you're not tough enough on any of these issues," Obama said Sunday at a news conference in Ohio. "He thought that there was no difference between Al Gore and George Bush, and eight years later I think people realize that Ralph did not know what he was talking about.

Sen. Hillary Clinton said he won't have an really impact on this year's election. But she did admit that there is always the chance that he could hurt the Democrats again. "I can't think of any Republican that would vote for him," she said.

Update: James Fallows, who once worked closely with Nader and wrote two books under his guidance, writes at Atlantic.com that as much as people love and care for Nader, his entry into this year's presidential campaign is a "farce."

"That he stayed in the race in 2000 was tragedy. (See: Invasion of Iraq, 2003, and subsequent occupation.) That he came back in 2004 was unfortunate; his entry in 2008 is farce. Farce because it suggests detachment from political reality (the differences between the Republican and Democratic nominees are so faint that we can say, What the hell!) and, worse, narcissism. The fact that it won't make any difference in the outcome actually is sad."

Do you agree? Or is Fallows being too touch on his old boss?

February 22, 2008

In Search of the Ohio Catholic Voter

As the Democratic and Republican contenders prepare for the Ohio primary on March 4, they have this statistic in their minds: in the primaries held to this date, roughly one in four voters are Catholic.

As NPR's Don Gonyea reports, Republican Catholics cite abortion as their number one issue, while Catholics who are Democrats are more concerned about issues like social justice, the death penalty and poverty. So far, that Democratic Catholic vote has belonged to Hillary Clinton: "In contests held through Super Tuesday, exit polls indicated that Clinton overwhelmingly won the Catholic vote. In delegate-rich states such as California, Massachusetts, New York and Connecticut, the Catholic vote went for Clinton by a margin of 2 to 1. She also racked up big margins in New Mexico and Arizona and won the demographic in every state except Missouri and Georgia."

But in Ohio, things might be changing. In Wisconsin, Obama edged closer to Clinton among Catholics and in Ohio there is a chance that he could split the Catholic vote with Clinton.

As Don points out, the Catholic vote may not be as important as it use to be, but it still matters. And how they vote in the upcoming primary could be an indicator of how they will vote in November.

The Presidential Candidates and Myers-Briggs

Ever done the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator test? You know, you get a whole bunch of questions ("Do you like challenges?," "Do you enjoy meeting new people?" " Do clowns scare you?" etc.) and depending on how you answer them, the person administering the test interprets them to figure out how you fit into 16 different categories.

Emily Yoffe of Slate, who applied the test to the 2000 presidential candidates and discovered that George W. Bush was the type of person who is " ... decisive and little bothered by second thoughts and self-doubt," has applied the test to this year's remaining presidential contenders as well (except for Mike Huckabee, because Yoffe says she can't bring herself to think of a Huckabee presidency). She tells Alex Chadwick of Day to Day that Hillary Clinton is a "supervisor," Barack Obama is a "champion" and John McCain is a "promoter."

Yoffe expands on her findings (she read the candidates' biographies and came to her own conclusions because she figured they wouldn't fill out their own questionnaires) in her Slate column :"Such personality testing is often derided by academia, but it's used widely by corporations, the military, and government to understand different leadership styles and the dynamics of working in groups.:"

In Myers-Briggs speak (for all you M-B groupies - we know you're out there) Clinton is a ESTJ, McCain is an ESTP (like our current president ... and LBJ, Kennedy and both Roosevelts apparently) and Obama is an ENFP. Not an introvert in the bunch, which is probably important when running for president.

But there you have it. As Yoffe says in conclusion "Don 't say you haven't been warned."

The Importance of Being John Edwards ... For Now

Right now, John Edwards is one of the most important men in the Democratic Party ... particularly if your name is Hillary Clinton.

CNN reports that Sen. Clinton confirmed she has had conversations with Edwards since they had an in-person meeting two weeks ago. Clinton talked about her long term friendship with Edwards on ABC's Good Morning America. (And as our Political Editor Ken Rudin points out, she invoked him by name twice during Thursday night's debate.)

Edwards has yet to announce his support for either Clinton or Senator Barack Obama (who has also been heavily courting the former North Carolina senator). As one of the few high-profile Democrats yet to announce a preference between the two, and a former presidential candidate himself, an Edwards' endorsement is seen as a much-desired plum.

Earlier articles in the media indicated that people who know Edwards say he is having a very hard time deciding between two people he likes very much, and is aware of how important his endorsement could be. Not to mention that, as Senior Washington Editor Ron Elving says, the moment he actually makes the endorsement he "disappears" again.

Republican Congressman Charged in Land Deal

Republican Rep. Rick Renzi was indicted Friday on charges of extortion, wire fraud, money laundering and other matters in an Arizona land swap scam that allegedly helped him collect hundreds of thousands of dollars in payoffs. The Associated Press reports that a 26-page indictment unsealed in Arizona accuses Renzi and two business partners of "conspiring to promote the sale of land that buyers could swap for property owned by the federal government."

Renzi, a three-term Congressman, said last August that he would not seek reelection.

The Arizona Republic contacted Renzi at his home in Virginia Thursday night. He told the paper that he knew nothing about the indictment and referred them to his lawyers.

McCain, Obama - Preparing for General Election

There are signs that the campaign teams of both Senator John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama are thinking ahead past the primaries to a general election campaign. McCain has virtually wrapped up the Republican nomination while Obama is locked in a tight race with Sen. Hillary Clinton, but has the momentum of 11 straight primary/caucus victories in his favor.

The Associated Press reports that McCain did a swing through key Midwestern states likely to be crucial during the upcoming general election this week and unveiled several new lines of attack against Sen. Barack Obama. (It's also interesting to note that during last night's Democratic presidential debate in Texas, the Republican National Committee sent out a series of e-mails to reporters attacking points made by Obama, but didn't send out any about comments made by Clinton.)

Meanwhile, TechPresident points to an ad the Obama campaign is running on some websites. Colin Delany writes that once you click on the ad, the goal seems clear: "long term support building."

"This strategy looks to be focused on the general election because its goal is long-term support-building rather than short-term persuasion or fundraising -- the move of a candidate who's willing to invest at least some online money in expanding the pool of supporters, volunteers and (ultimately) donors for the Fall rather than in trying to win Ohio and Texas in a couple of weeks."

11:56 AM ET | 02-22-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Scrutiny of McCain 'Just the Kind He Has Advocated'

J. Peter Freire, managing editor at the conservative American Spectator, has an intriguing take on the fallout from The New York Times article about Sen. John McCain's involvement with lobbyist Vicki Iseman. Freire argues that McCain's own efforts at "the pseudo-muckraking philosophy underlying McCain-Feingold, 'ethics reform,' and other 'do-gooder' bills ... has come back to bite him in a Times article that highlights moments in his career where he could have been seen as doing something unseemly."

Freire is dismissive of the Times story, calling it "simply a catalogue of potential sins that are never realized, offered by sources that are never named." But Freire argues that the Times story about how his staffers worried about the appearance of his relationship with Iseman "is precisely the sort of scrutiny of moral conscience that McCain has supported."

This is not a story about what happened. It's a story about what could have happened. What was feared to have happened. What, it must be assumed in good faith, did not happen. Campaign advisers were afraid that "the appearance of a close bond with a lobbyist whose clients often had business before the Senate committee Mr. McCain led threatened the story of redemption and rectitude that defined his political identity."
While it's clear that supporters and passers-by will dismiss the Times report as overblown in its importance (and, of course, heap onto the Times for being incautious about its use of sources), the dredging up of a real ethics flap will not help a man who has made ethics a cornerstone of his campaign.

Update: The Washington Post has an article today on how the "anti-loobyist McCain" is advised by more than a few lobbyists.

" ... when McCain huddled with his closest advisers at his rustic Arizona cabin last weekend to map out his presidential campaign, virtually every one was part of the Washington lobbying culture he has long decried. His campaign manager, Rick Davis, co-founded a lobbying firm whose clients have included Verizon and SBC Telecommunications. His chief political adviser, Charles R. Black Jr., is chairman of one of Washington's lobbying powerhouses, BKSH and Associates, which has represented AT&T, Alcoa, JPMorgan and U.S. Airways. Senior advisers Steve Schmidt and Mark McKinnon work for firms that have lobbied for Land O' Lakes, UST Public Affairs, Dell and Fannie Mae. "

Report: Karl Rove Wanted Dirt on Alabama Gov.

A former campaign worker has told CBS's 60 Minutes that Karl Rove, President Bush's one-time top adviser, tried to get her to find evidence that former Alabama Gov. Don Siegleman was cheating on his wife. Jill Simpson has long alleged that Rove may have influenced the Justice Department when it sought charges against Siegleman, who is currently serving seven years.

Rove's attorney denied the charges.

The Justice Department has said there is no basis in Simpson's allegations about Rove interfering in the case, and that Siegleman was convicted by a jury. The Associated Press reports that the Justice prosecution of Siegleman "stemmed from his appointment of former HealthSouth CEO Richard Scrushy to an influential hospital regulatory board in exchange for Scrushy arranging contributions to Siegleman's campaign for a state lottery."

But Democrats on Capitol Hill are looking into the case as part of a broader look at how the White House may have influenced cases at the Justice Department. Forty former Attorneys General have also called for a congressional investigation into the case.

Clinton's Last Comments: Her Best or a Xerox Moment?

Last night's Democratic debate in Texas was, by and large, a civil affair. Tensions between Senator Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton only escalated when one of the moderators from CNN and Univision asked about charges of plagiarism that the Clinton camp had been leveling at Obama.

Democratic presidential hopefuls U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) participate in a debate in the Lyndon B. Johnson Auditorium at the University of Texas.

Photo by Ben Sklar/Getty Images

Clinton tried to raise doubts about Obama's trustworthiness, but the attempt didn't seem to resonate with the audience. (In fact, people booed her best zinger.)

But Clinton's advisers are seizing on her very last statement of the debate to argue that she has put herself back in charge in the contest.

The final question, asked by CNN's Campbell Brown, was about what moment tested you the most in your life. Obama talked about his life story - his father leaving when he was two, being raised by a single mother and his grandmother, learning to accept responsibility for his actions, being a community organizer in Chicago.

But Clinton seemed to hint at her marital problems with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, in her answer.

"Well, I think everybody here knows I've lived through some crises and some challenging moments in my life," she said to applause. "But people often ask me, 'How do you do it?' You know, 'How do you keep going?' And I just have to shake my head in wonderment, because with all of the challenges that I've had, they are nothing compared to what I see happening in the lives of Americans every single day."

She went in to say that she was honored to be sharing the stage with Obama, and the two shook hands.

Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University told Reuters the moment was a good one for Clinton. "For her supporters, moments like those reveal why much of the criticism of her candidacy and personality are simply not true."

"It was the moment she retook the reins of this race and showed women and men why she is the best choice," Howard Wolfson, her communications director, said in a statement.

But if it was a good line, perhaps it was because it had been road tested. Our Elections Editor, Beth Donovan, recognized that President Clinton used it in New Hampshire in 1992. And she wasn't the only one.

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo offers this comparison:

Clinton, 92: "The hits that I took in this election are nothing compared to the hits the people of this state and this country have been taking for a long time."

Hillary Clinton, last night: "You know, the hits I've taken in life are nothing compared to what goes on every single day in the lives of people across our country."

Another Xerox moment, perhaps?

Others are reading the comment differently. They see it as recognition by Clinton that she may not win the contest with Obama. The New York Daily News referred to it as "a gracious moment, but also one that could be read as a concession preview if her teetering campaign doesn't rebound."

February 21, 2008

Barack Obama Was Model for West Wing's Santos

This story proves that truth is stranger than fiction, because if you made this story up, no one would believe you.

The final season of The West Wing centered around "a young, charismatic candidate from an ethnic minority [Matthew Santos], daring to take on an establishment workhorse with a promise to transcend race and heal America's partisan divide."

Hmmm. Sounds like something I've heard about ... maybe that's why the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama seems like deja vu all over again. But it turns out to be less like a case of life imitating art. It's more like art imitating life. The Guardian reports that one of the show's main writers 'fessed up - the character of Santos was based on a certain young, idealistic newly elected senator from Illinois. Yes, that one.

"I drew inspiration from [Obama] in drawing this character," West Wing writer and producer Eli Attie told the Guardian. "When I had to write, Obama was just appearing on the national scene. He had done a great speech at the convention [which nominated John Kerry] and people were beginning to talk about him."
Attie, who served as chief speechwriter to Al Gore during the ill-fated 2000 campaign and who wrote many of the key Santos episodes of the West Wing, put in a call to Obama aide David Axelrod.

"I said, 'Tell me about this guy Barack Obama.'"

And if you remember, the story line gets even more familiar. The Republican presidential race in the show was between a Christian preacher and a maverick senator from the West whose sometimes liberal positions put him at odds with the party's conservative base.

Almost creepy, isn't it.

Now, of course, Obama must be hoping that life does turn out like art - Matthew Santos is elected president.

Reports on Campaign Financing Show McCain Trouble

In the midst of all the bruhaha over The New York Times story about Sen. John McCain's friendship with a lobbyist, Vicki Iseman, another story has kind of fallen off the radar.

Yesterday it was reporting day for the candidates - time to tell the Federal Election Commission how much money the campaigns raised and spent in January. And when John McCain submitted his report, it showed that in January, he basically spent more than he had, including what he fundraised that month ... despite the fact that he was honing in on the GOP presidential nomination at the time.

Matt Stoller at Talk Left writes: "I'm sure he's brought in something since he secured the nomination, but he really is starting from scratch. And unless I missed it, I haven't seen any stories on the massive influx of online or establishment money to McCain. It'll happen eventually I'm sure, but it's worth noting that the campaign hasn't been bragging about it as of yet."

Hilzoy at The Daily Dish suggests that while things are not great for McCain, it's not as bad as Stoller thinks - there's always that loan - which as we wrote about earlier, the FEC is also interested in. (NPR's Peter Overby seconds this idea - he writes that as long as McCain has access to that line of credit, he can keep afloat.) Hilzoy does note that McCain owes $720,164.27 on his Amex card. (But think of the points!)

If McCain does not show more fund raising muscle in the next report, however, it could mean his front runner status is not turning into dollar signs - a potential problem for November. Because his Democratic rivals are fairly rolling in greenbacks (although Barack Obama has a lot more to use in the primaries than Clinton does - more than $20 million of the $29 million she has on hand can only be used in a general election contest). Patrick Ruffini writes at his website that it looks like the Obama campaign will raise at least $60 million in February.

A week ago, The New York Times reported that McCain hired Mercer Reynolds, who helped President Bush raise a record $273 million for the 2004 re-election campaign, would be the national finance co-chairman for McCain.

The New Republic Reports on Times' Reporting

This is all very post-modern.

A short while ago, The New Republic published an article on its website that details how The New York Times went about preparing its story on the connection between Sen. John McCain and a lobbyist, Vicki Iseman. "The story is filled with awkward journalistic moves," says writer Gabriel Sherman, "... and departs from the Times' usual authoritative voice."

What happened? The publication of the article capped three months of intense internal deliberations at the Times over whether to publish the negative piece and its most explosive charge about the affair. It pitted the reporters investigating the story, who believed they had nailed it, against executive editor Bill Keller, who believed they hadn't. It likely cost the paper one investigative reporter, who decided to leave in frustration. And the Times ended up publishing a piece in which the institutional tensions about just what the story should be are palpable.

The TNR piece also reports that McCain himself called Keller in December to deny the allegations. And it says the decision when to publish the story turned into another chapter in a long running N.Y. Times feud - New York versus Washington.

After many stops and starts - including being leaked about on the Drudge Report in December, which some people charge may have forced the Times to eventually publish the story -- it went up on their website last night. In a conversation with Sherman today, Keller said, ""Our policy is, we publish stories when they are ready. 'Ready' means the facts have been nailed down to our satisfaction, the subjects have all been given a full and fair chance to respond, and the reporting has been written up with all the proper context and caveats."

Sherman ends by saying the story may have ultimately "provided the Times' critics with a few caveats too many."

Conservative Bloggers Accuse Times of Double Standard

Conservative bloggers have been red-in-the-face about the report in The New York Times (and the Washington Post as well) about the relationship between Sen. John McCain and a female lobbyist, Vicki Iseman. As NPR's Don Gonyea reports, McCain denied the story was true, saying that he was "very disappointed" in it.

Many conservative bloggers believe the story - built on anonymous sources - suggests that McCain and Iseman had an affair, although the story never directly says that and does carry denials from both McCain and Iseman.

But they are also claiming a double-standard. They point to this piece from October of 2007, a story in the National Enquirer that alleged former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards had an affair with a staffer. (Edwards issued a strong denial of the story, telling reporters, "The story is false. It's completely untrue, ridiculous." The Enquirer never ran a follow-up, which one blogger describes as the tabloid equivalent of "giving up.")

As Ed Morrissey at Captain's Quarters writes, when allegations of impropriety about a Democratic candidate arose, the Times ignored it. Morrissey writes that "Anonymous sourcing, a complete lack of evidence, and denials all around didn't stop the National Enquirer from carrying the story. Did the New York Times pick it up? Nope."

Update: David Folkenflik was on Day to Day talking about the backlash about the Times story and why it said it printed it in the first place.

More: Open Left says that conservative bloggers complaints are crocodile tears, considering theat "Every single right-wing media outlet that is now blasting the NYT for this story has pushed dozens of far worse and less substantiated stories on Democrats than this."

Obama Wins Number 11 - Democrats Abroad

Make that 11 primaries/caucuses in a row.

Sen. Barack Obama has won the Democrats Abroad Global Primary, according to the International Chair for the Democrats Abroad, Christine Marques.

Obama received the support of roughly two-thirds of the 20,000 U.S. citizens abroad who were eligible to vote - 65 percent to Clinton's 32 percent. Democrats abroad will send 22 delegates, each with half a vote. Of those 22, eight will be superdelegates - two for Obama, two for Clinton, four undecided. Fourteen will be pledged delegates.

CNN reports that "Voting in the Democrats Abroad Global Primary began on Super Tuesday, February 5 and continued through February 12. Voting centers were set up in 33 countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Mexico, Canada, Italy, Japan, Hong Kong and new chapters in Istanbul, Ukraine, Russia and Indonesia -- the highest number of voting centers in the primary's history."

The largest U.S. expatriate communities are in Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom.

FEC Wants Some Answers About McCain Loan

The government's top campaign finance regulator and the campaign of Sen. John McCain are at loggerheads with each other over McCain's use of a loan to keep his campaign alive during his candidacy's dark days in the winter of 2007.

Jim Kuhnhenn reports at Townhall.com that Federal Election Commission Chairman David Mason says, in a letter to McCain this week, "John McCain can't drop out of the primary election's public financing system until he answers questions about a loan he obtained to kickstart his once faltering presidential campaign."

Mason says in the letter to McCain that he needs to assure the FEC that he did not use the promise of public money to secure the $4 million line of credit he got in November.

But the McCain campaign said it was going to ignore the FEC and that it has already dropped out of the system.

This is a complicated case and it makes a lot of sense to read the above article to get fuller picture of the situation. But there are other factors complicating the issue: the FEC's current lack of a quorum - Senate Democrats and Republicans are at odds over how to fill the four vacancies on the six member commission (Peter Overby has done some great reporting on what this means to this election cycle); and McCain has long been a critic of the FEC and he and Mason (a Republican appointee) have had ideological differences over how the FEC should operate.

Peter believes that in the end, this is probably going to have to be decided in the courts (We'll have an update later with more on the situation.)

Corporations Play Big Role in Political Financing

When it comes to raising money for presidential campaigns, first we'll touch up all the lawyers (apologies to Shakespeare). As a recent NPR piece on fund raising points out, lawyers and law firms have consistently been the biggest industry contributors to presidential campaigns. So far this year, they've donated around $42 million - the next closest group (called "Retired") is almost $12 million behind.

But the largest individual donors continue to be corporations. While they are prohibited from making donations directly to the candidates, they can form political action committees (PACs) that can give money to campaigns.

PACS are like the "mutual funds of politics," [Massie Ritsch of the nonprofit Center for Responsive Politics] says. "You, as the employee of the corporation, are asked to give to the PAC. You believe in the general investment direction of it, but you don't get to decide where the money goes. The corporation -- the PAC -- decides that. Unions have PACs. Ideological groups, like environmental groups, gun-rights groups, they also have PACs."

This election cycle it's Wall Street investment firms that are the big givers. Goldman Sachs, the largest corporate contributor, based on donations from its employees, has given more than $1.5 million to presidential candidates, Ritsch says.

But there is a difference this year from past elections - much of the money from the top 20 corporate givers is going to the Democratic candidates. Ritsch says the corporations are just making sure they're bases are covered and that they will have access "to whoever is going to be leading our country."

Questions Raised About McCain and Lobbyists

As NPR's Juan Williams remarked on Morning Edition, Republican Senator John McCain could not have been too happy when he opened his copy of The New York Times this morning. The Times has a lengthy article about McCain's connection to a series of lobbyists, in particular a woman named Vicki Iseman, 40.

The relationship between the two was so close that the Times writes McCain's closest advisers feared there was a romantic connection - something that both McCain and Iseman have repeatedly denied. But "to his advisers, even the appearance of a close bond with a lobbyist whose clients often had business before the Senate committee Mr. McCain led threatened the story of redemption and rectitude that defined his political identity."

In fact, McCain has known about the Times investigation since December, when he hired attorney Robert Bennett to handle the Times inquires. McCain's spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker, said in a statement last night: "It is a shame that the New York Times has lowered its standards to engage in a hit and run smear campaign . . . Americans are sick and tired of this kind of gutter politics."

But then several hours after the Times posted its piece, the Washington Post published its version on its website. It reported that McCain aides met with Iseman before the senator's 2000 campaign, and asked her to stay away from him because his close association with "a lobbyist would undermine his image as an opponent of special interests, aides had concluded."

McCain himself has called the articles are not true. At a press conference Tuesday morning he said he was "very disappointed in this article." Earlier this year, The Times had given its endorsement to McCain for the Republican presidential nomination.

9:30 AM ET | 02-21-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

February 20, 2008

Obama Picks Up Endorsement of Two Key Unions

And the hits just keep on coming for the Obama campaign.

The Illinois senator spent some of the afternoon traveling with Jim Hoffa, the president of the powerful Teamsters' Union. Earlier in the day, the 1.4 million member union gave Obama its backing in the Democratic presidential race, an endorsement that could help him a lot in a blue collar state like Ohio.

Earlier in the day, he also picked up the endorsement of the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers. One union official said the union leadership liked Sen. Obama's "energy and vision."

But the Republican National Committee thought the Teamsters' Union endorsement suspect in particular. The Swamp quote RNC spokesman Alex Conant as sniping, "Nothing says 'change' like the Teamsters and James Hoffa."

The Rise of the Conservative Legal Movement

Thirty years ago, when most of the major legal institutions in America were left/liberal, conservatives and libertarians set about trying to create conservative/libertarian institutions to counter them. That the premise of a new book by Steven M. Teles (a Visiting Lecturer in Law at Yale Law School), The Rise of the Conservative Legal Movement: The Battle for Control of the Law.

Orin Kerr writes at the Volokh Conspiracy that Teles looks at what he sees as the institutions that have resulted because of this movement; The Federalist Society, the Institute for Justice, the Center for Individual Rights, law school centers of law & economics (many funded by Olin), and George Mason University Law School.

On the Federalist Society, Teles argues persuasively that the key to its influence is in hosting a "big tent" that is open to a wide range of conservative and libertarian ideas. As Teles tells it, the Federalist Society is influential because provides a way for dispersed conservative and libertarian law students and lawyers to identify each other, get to know each other, and to establish an intellectual identity apart from the left/liberal views that tend to dominate the law schools. Teles also argues that the key to the Society's role is that it hosts debates rather than takes positions; this enables a wide range of different views to feel at home, while also focusing attention on the long-term development of ideas.

Matt Frost at The American Scene writes about the reasons for the rise of the school as discussed in the Teles' book: "Since electoral advantage is not enough to effect change in the nation's legal framework, conservatives mobilized to build an intellectual infrastructure that could support their long-term ideological project."

Some Pundits Think Obama Bubble About to Burst

As is the wont of their profession, some pundits - apparently worn out by the success of the Barack Obama campaign - have begun the "Obama is about to fall" chant. As Eric Pfeiffer points out at Congressional Quarterly's Ground Game, the reason for this bubble-bursting mood is that Obama's been, well, popular for too long.

For instance, Kevin Drum wrote Tuesday in Political Animal at Washington Monthly "...bubbles always burst, and Obama has been riding a major league bubble for months now. Before too much longer his supporters are going to come down to earth. Reporters will start wondering why Obama doesn't like to talk to them very much -- and then they'll get bored and cynical and start doing to him what they did to Howard Dean in 2004. John McCain is going to find his rhythm (though he hasn't yet) and start making some effective jabs. This backlash meme is already widespread, and you can almost feel in the air that it's about to explode into a feeding frenzy. In other words, it ain't over yet. Wisconsin and the two weeks after it should be interesting, shouldn't they?"

And then there is Paul Krugman of The New York Times writing "One thing I worry about a lot if Obama is the Dem nominee -- and he's surely the frontrunner now -- is that there will be a backlash against Obamamania. Actually, it's already starting -- probably too late to have much effect on the nomination fight, but in plenty of time to affect the general election."

But Pfeifer writes that early reports of Obama's demise have been greatly exaggerated: "Last time I checked, Obama has been both a media and grassroots darling going back to his July 24, 2004 Democratic National Convention speech in Boston. Obama critics like Krugman may be engaging in wishful thinking if they think his substantial popularity with liberals and many independents is a fluke. It's no guarantee he'll win the election, but a safe bet he will not suffer such a fate outlined by Kevin Drum."

Did McCain's Triumph Scuttle Dems Plans in West?

If there is one issue that looked to be political divisive and a real divider between the Republican and Democratic parties, it was probably going to be immigration.

Was going to be ... suddenly immigration doesn't look like such a burning issue in the 2008 election (not that it won't be important). But when all three remaining major candidates favor a more progressive approach to the topic - well, that's when you have anti-immigration groups advocating for Lou Dobbs to run for president, as was noted in an earlier blog item.

This is particularly true of Sen. John McCain, whose support of President Bush's failed immigration plan almost cost him the Republican nomination (which looks more and more his with every passing day). And that turns out to be a particular problem for the Democrats, according to the Washington Post, who had envisioned a more anti-immigration candidate like former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney being the GOP standard bearer which would have put western states like Nevada and Arizona more into play.

Suddenly Hispanics are not as angry about the immigration issue and Democrats from Hispanic districts are saying that Clinton and Obama need to stress economic issues, education and health care before bringing up immigration.

"He's definitely showed us that he's [McCain] persistent," Grace Lopez Ramirez, director of the Mi Familia Vota campaign in Colorado acknowledged. "This is dear to his heart, and he believes in it. Why else would he be taking so many hits from his own party?"

But then again Democrats point to the fact that McCain has backed away from his support for immigration reform, recently telling conservatives in a closed-door meeting with House Republicans that he "gets it." And they say that while McCain may be the GOP nominee, he will head a ticketed filled with anti-immigration candidates that can be targeted.

2:57 PM ET | 02-20-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Kucinich in Five-Way Fight For Congressional Seat

There must be something about members of the House of Representatives running long-shot presidential campaigns that brings out the competitors in their home districts. Recently Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul returned home to battle for his Texas 14th District seat, although he still remains a part of the GOP presidential race.

Dennis Kucinich supporters march in January in Nevada.

Supporters of Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) marched outside Cashman Center before a Democratic presidential debate January 15, 2008 in Las Vegas, Nevada, protesting his exclusion from the debate when he was still a candidate.

Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

And Ohio Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich, and former presidential candidate, is also facing a tough battle to win the Democratic nomination to run again in Ohio's 10th District. Kucinich is facing four other Democrats who want his seat, but the Cleveland Plain Dealer's political blog says that his main rival is Cleveland City Councilman Joe Cimperman.

"Let's not be fooled again. Mr. Kucinich is not a congressman. He's a showman. Mr. Kucinich is not a workhorse. He is a show horse," Cimperman said in opening comments before nearly 700 people attending a debate at the Crowne Plaza Cleveland City Centre hotel.

Kucinich mostly ignored Cimperman during the debate and told the audience that ""Time after time I've shown the leadership that people have a right to expect in a member of Congress, and I've done it without fear or favor because people know that I cannot be bought nor can I be bossed."

You can see a video of the debate at the above link.

Obama Camp Says Idea of "Tie" is Ridiculous

Sen. Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters Wednesday that the idea that his candidate is on a "tie" with Sen. Hillary Clinton - a line being put forward by the Clinton camp - is ridiculous.

NPR's Audie Cornish reports that in a conference call this morning Plouffe said that Obama is leading the race in PLEDGED delegates and that nothing else matters - neither Michigan or Florida's lost delegates, nor superdelegate's inclinations. Plouffe says Clinton would have to win by landslides in Texas and Ohio in order to get back ahead in pledged delegates.

The most recent delegate count (which does not include the results from the Hawaii caucus, which Obama also won) has Obama with 1319 and Clinton with 1245 - but in terms of pledged delegates, Obama has a much larger lead, 1150 to 1006

Ohio May be Key to Clinton's Presidential Chances

Ohio always seems to play an important role in American elections. And it may be doing it again in this year's Democratic presidential race. After falling behind in delegates and in national polls, Ohio may be the last best hope of New York Senator Hillary Clinton.

Bill Cohen of Ohio Public Radio reports that a loss in Ohio could finish Clinton's presidential hopes. Yet Ohio Democrats seem mostly unaffected by Sen. Barack Obama's recent tidal wave of primary and caucuses victories. Most recent surveys show Clinton with a double-digit lead over Obama in the state, but his victory in Wisconsin Tuesday night may improve his chances there.

But if Clinton wins in Ohio and in Texas, where she is also strong, then the fight for the Democratic nomination could go all the way to the convention in Denver.

The importance of winning Ohio will make the Feb. 26 Democratic debate at Cleveland State University even more important than it might have been before. But the Cleveland Plain-Dealer reports that going to the debate can get expensive - "The party is offering 'sponsorship' debate packages that include behind-the-scenes tours of the debate site, a pair of VIP cocktail parties at the Terrace Club at Jacobs Field and debate tickets, topping out at $50,000 per package. The sponsorships are critical to holding the Feb. 26 event, said Ohio Democratic Party spokesman Alex Goepfert." There are also corporate sponsorships that run from the $50,000 to $15,000 level.

Meanwhile the university has launched its own effort to sell packages offering special access to underwrite the debate's estimated $300,000 cost. "We can't use state money to hold this event," said Brian Johnston, director of marketing and public affairs for Cleveland State. "We need to raise significant private dollars to make this event happen."

The free tickets that are available (one-third go to Cleveland State, one third to the Ohio Democratic Party and one-third to media sponsor NBC) will be distributed by lottery.

More Bowling Alleys in Huckabee's Future?

Mike Huckabee may have been smart to campaign in a Milwaukee bowling alley over the weekend. According to USA Today, Wisconsin ranks second in the country in bowling alleys, and the state is in the top ten for bowling leagues as well. But that hasn't stopped the US Bowling Congress from mulling a relocation of its headquarters--from Milwaukee to Arlington, Texas.

Of course, Huckabee and the other Presidential candidates have already moved on to Texas, and Ohio, two big states that vote in two weeks.

If Huckabee wants to repeat his ten-pin campaign event, the newspaper says he'll have 195 Texas bowling alleys to choose from.

-- Scott Horsley

9:53 AM ET | 02-20-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Anti-Immigration Group Wants Lou Dobbs as President

There are apparently some conservative Americans who will never be happy with Sen. John McCain as their nominee. Take, for instance, the group Americans for Legal Immigration. They apparently so dislike the idea of Sen. John McCain as the Republican standard bearer that they decided to put forward a candidate of their own - CNN personality Lou Dobbs.

The group has pushed Dobbs before. (Dobbs is well known for his tirades against illegal immigration and its effects on the U.S.). One columnist at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch dubbed the Americans who might support him "Loupublicans and Dobbocrats." Whitney Blair Wyckoff reports at The Swamp that the anti-immigration group swears this isn't just a protest against the three remaining presidential candidates who all have moderate positions on immigration. William Gheen, president and spokesman of the group, known as ALIPAC, says just over 2000 people have pledged more than $500,000 for Dobbs if he wants to run.

In an interview last month with the Wall Street Journal Dobbs said he didn't have the "personality" to run for office, but he would not say that he would never do it.

But most experts predict a Dobbs candidacy (or any one else who ran on only an anti-immigration platform) would go nowhere.

"Immigration isn't a salient issue to most Americans, and many of those who do care about immigration are going to vote for McCain," said Alan I. Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta and author of Voice of the People: Elections and Voting in the United States. "I just don't see that issue as creating a third party movement."

Obama Says He Would Pursue Public Funds for Election

Sen. Barack Obama says he likes the idea of having a publicly funded election. And he writes in USAToday that if he is the Democratic Party's candidate for president, he will "aggressively pursue" an agreement with the apparent Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, about holding one ... but with conditions.

I propose a meaningful agreement in good faith that results in real spending limits. The candidates will have to commit to discouraging cheating by their supporters; to refusing fundraising help to outside groups; and to limiting their own parties to legal forms of involvement. And the agreement may have to address the amounts that Senator McCain, the presumptive nominee of his party, will spend for the general election while the Democratic primary contest continues.

The involvement of outside groups as a way around any deal is a concern to the Illinois senator. He points to an agreement between Sen. John Kerry and then Gov. William Weld in their Massachusetts Senate contest in 1996 about campaign spending limits. "The agreement did not accomplish all these candidates hoped, but they believe that it made a substantial difference in controlling outside groups as well as their own spending."

Obama says that will "pass the test" when it comes to a real agreement on a publicly funded election and that he hopes McCain passes his.

Obama Wins Hawaii Caucuses

Sen. Barack Obama made it two for two Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, and ten in a row with a victory in the Hawaii caucuses. That win came after his victory Tuesday evening in the Wisconsin primary.

The Associated Press reports that "the Illinois senator's Wisconsin victory left him with 1,303 delegates in The Associated Press' count, compared with 1,233 for Clinton, a margin that masks his 145-delegate lead among those picked in primaries or caucuses. It takes 2,025 to win the nomination at the party's national convention in Denver. Allocation of the 20 Hawaii delegates was not being calculated until later Wednesday."

5:07 AM ET | 02-20-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

February 19, 2008

Cunningham's Briber Get 12 Years in Jail

Brent Wilkes, the Poway, California defense contractor who federal prosecutors have said was the mastermind behind the largest congressional bribery scheme in history, was sentenced to 12 years in prison earlier today. Prosecutors had wanted 25 years or at least a minimum of 16 years and eight month - twice what former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham received for his role in the scheme.

Wilkes was convicted on Nov. 5 of "conspiracy, bribery, fraud and money laundering in connection with the bribery scheme" that ended the political career of Cunningham. Prosecutors said the scheme, where Wilkes gave Cunningham "expensive meals, gifts, fancy trips, cash bribes and prostitutes" in return for defense projects sent in Wilkes direction. The plan netted Wilkes $46 million.

The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that U.S. District Judge Larry A. Burns disagreed with prosecutors about Wilkes being the mastermind, "yet said he was troubled by Wilkes' demeanor in court."

"Mr. Wilkes, you have not indicated any sense of contrition to this day," he said. ... The judge said there were troublesome aspects to this case, which demonstrated how shrewd and exploitative Wilkes was.

To the end, Wilkes continued to insist he had done nothing wrong, politely refusing to admit his guilt when the judge urged him to do so.

Sen. Barack Obama Projected Winner of Wisconsin

NPR projects that Sen. Barack Obama will win the Democratic primary in Wisconsin.

Exit polls showed Obama taking way Clinton's support among white voters and men, and he tied Clinton among white women, Clinton's main group. Only white women older then 50 stayed with Clinton. Obama also won 6 in 10 self-described independents (who were allowed to vote in their choice of primaries in the election), while he tied Clinton among Democrats.

Sen. John McCain Wins Wisconsin Primary

Based on exit polls and early voting returns, NPR projects that sen. John McCain will win the GOP Wisconsin primary.

9:08 PM ET | 02-19-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

AP: Clinton Team Behind Charges about Obama Speech

Sen. Hillary Clinton said Tuesday that it was the media that had uncovered the evidence about her rival, Sen. Barack Obama "borrowing" phrases from his friend Mass. Gov. Deval Patrick.

"It's not us making this charge, it's the media," Clinton told Honolulu television station KITV Tuesday. "The media is finally examining my opponent which I think is important. We're trying to pick a president, someone for the toughest job in the world."

But The Associated Press says not so fast. In fact, it calls the Clinton charge "disingenuous."

In the past, the AP, the Boston Globe and other media have reported on instances where Obama has used some of Patrick's lines before without attribution. But on Monday night, after The New York Times "reported the speech similarities Monday, having looked into them the day before. The story said the similarities 'were highlighted by a rival campaign that did not want to be identified.' " The quotes were not characterized as being plagarism.

That's when the Clinton campaign decided to push the envelope.

The Clinton campaign jumped on the matter. Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson held an hourlong conference call about it Monday and repeated many of the charges during another call Tuesday.
"Senator Obama is running on the strength of his rhetoric and the strength of his promises and, as we have seen in the last couple of days, he's breaking his promises and his rhetoric isn't his own," Wolfson told reporters Monday.

On Monday Obama said he wished he had given his friend credit. But then he also noted that Clinton had borrowed phrases from Patrick without giving credit either.

Cable TV News Being Taken Over By Pundits

"I'm not sure I want popular opinion on my side -- I've noticed those with the most opinions often have the fewest facts," American activist Bethania McKenstry once said.

Yet these days opinions, especially about politics, are like social security numbers - everyone has one. And as Paul Farhi reports in The Washington Post nowhere is this truer than on the cable news networks. "The nation's economy might be coughing and wheezing, but there is no shortage of employment opportunities in Punditland" he reports

"During the week of Super Tuesday, 75 percent of available airtime on MSNBC, CNN and Fox News was dedicated to dissecting the campaign, according to the Washington-based, nonprofit Project for Excellence in Journalism," Farhi reports. "That was more than 10 times the amount the cable news networks spent on the next most heavily reported story that week: the tornadoes in the Midwest and Southeast (the war in Iraq didn't make the top five)."

There are several reasons for this plenitude of pundits - this year's elections are drawing extremely large audiences for the networks, a factor of the closeness of the Democratic (and until recently) Republican races and the lack of new programming due to the writer's strike; people enjoy listening to the pundits confront each other's opinions; and it's really cheap to do. Farhi reports that most of the "experts" asked to give their opinions don't get paid anything.

How about you? Do you enjoy listening to the pundits debate the news? Is there too much opinion? Can a TV pundit's opinion change your mind on an issue? (Be honest.)

Obamas' Gaffes Hurt Campaign Momentum

Sen. Barack Obama and his wife Michelle are both smarting a bit - him from borrowing a quote from a friend without giving proper acknowledgment, and her from an unintentional gaffe that has become fodder on conservative blogs.

Sen. Obama's borrowed remarks came Sunday night when he defended himself against charges that he is only an inspirational speaker who is more talk than action. He used the words of his friend and supporter Deval Patrick, the governor of Massachusetts, to defend himself (the two share the services of strategist David Axelrod), but didn't say where they came from.

Here are the two speeches side-by-side:

For his part, Patrick has called the charges of plagarism against Obama (mostly leveled by the Clinton campaign) "extravagant."

Meanwhile, Michelle Obama, speaking to a gathering in Milwaukee said," .... for the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country and not just because Barack has done well, but because I think people are hungry for change."

Obama was not helped when the Boston Globe misquoted what she said. Here is what she said in context: "What we've learned over this year is that hope is making a comeback. It is making a comeback and let me tell you something, for the first time in my adult lifetime, I'm really proud of my country. And not just because Barack has done well, but because I think people are hungry for change. And I have been desperate to see our country moving in that direction and just not feeling so alone in my frustration and disappointment. I've seen people who are hungry to be unified around some basic common issues, and it's made me proud. And I feel privileged to be a part of even witnessing this, traveling around states all over this country and being reminded that there is more that unites us than divides us..."

But sometimes in these situations, the damage is done.

This comment in Hot Air is typical of what is being posted in conservative blogs:

"Nothing America has done in Michelle Obama's adult life, which at 44 goes back 26 years to 1982, has made her proud of her country? Nothing? Not winning the Cold War? Not our regular and orderly transitions of power based on the rule of law? ... Nothing has made Michelle Obama proud of her country in her entire adult life?"

Even John McCain's wife, Cindy, took a swipe at Michelle Obama in a campaign event Tuesday.

Monday Obama spokesman Bill Burton released a statement: "Of course Michelle is proud of her country, which is why she and Barack talk constantly about how their story wouldn't be possible in any other nation on Earth. What she meant is that she's really proud at this moment because for the first time in a long time, thousands of Americans who've never participated in politics before are coming out in record numbers to build a grassroots movement for change."

Obama, Clinton Battle for Nation Lead

For much of the past year, the convention wisdom about Sen. Hillary Clinton was that she would win the Democratic Party's presidential nomination based on her strength in several areas: women (in particular), older middle-aged Democrats and her strength in minority communities. When Sen. Barack Obama decided to run against her, he eventually took away much of the support she had originally held in the African-American community.

But now a Gallup poll published Monday shows that this erosion is now also happening in other key Clinton demographics.

"Obama's standing has improved among most Democratic subgroups over the past several days. But one of the more substantial shifts has been the changing preferences of middle-aged Democratic voters, who have moved away from Clinton and toward Obama in the past week. Obama has also made gains among three other groups that have favored Clinton throughout much of the campaign -- women, Hispanics, and self-identified Democrats. Obama and Clinton are now running even among these three key groups in the most recent Gallup tracking data."

The youngest voters (18-34) have always been Obama's, just as the oldest (over 55) have been Clinton's. The change has come in the middle group. Whereas Clinton earlier this month has a seven-point lead among 35-54-year olds, Obama now has the support of 51 percent to 42 percent.

This is also true among Hispanics, another group where Clinton once held a wide-edge, but now trails Obama according to Gallup.

But it's not all bad news for Clinton. The Monday Gallup poll showed Obama leading nationally 49 percent to 42 percent - probably a reflection of Obama's eight victories in a row. But the Gallup Daily Tracking Polls out Tuesday shows that that lead is now just a single point - 46 to 45 - a reflection of "the intense, often heated, nature of the campaign."

Could Democratic Pledged Delegates be the Next Target?

They're out there, and they're up for grabs! No, not the 794 Democratic Party superdelegates who are more sought after these days Larry King trying to get an interview with Britney Spears. The delegates who might be up for grabs are the delegates who have been pledged to Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. And Roger Simon's writes in Politico.com that apparently the Clinton campaign is hoping to poach a few of these Obama folks.

Turns out that being a pledged delegate is not the rock-solid, lock-box (to borrow a phrase) status that it's cracked up to be. Simon writes that it is a little known fact that the glue that binds pledged delegates to a candidate is like the glue that binds Hollywood stars together in marriage - it's a forever thing until they get a better offer.

"Delegates are NOT bound to vote for the candidate they are pledged to at the convention or on the first ballot," a recent DNC memo states. "A delegate goes to the convention with a signed pledge of support for a particular presidential candidate. At the convention, while it is assumed that the delegate will cast their vote for the candidate they are publicly pledged to, it is not required."

"This has been an open secret in the party for years, but it has never really mattered because there has almost always been a clear victor by the time the convention convened," Simon writes. And while they swear it's not happening now, Simon says people in the Clinton camp are telling him that if it's tied or still close going into the convention, the pledged delegates are fair game.

Party elders have warned about using superdelegates to try and overturn what appears to be the will of the party. But if after the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd if the pledged delegate count is close, expect BOTH Clinton and Obama to go after them.

Wisconsin, Hawaii Go to the Polls

Like the national race, Wisconsin looks to be another close battle between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama. Recent polls show Obama about a four point lead - add in the plus/minus with the poll and it's a tie.

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has reports on last second get-out-the-vote efforts for both candidates. (There are 74 delegates at stake in Wisconsin's Democratic primary.) Last night Obama borrowed a phrase from the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and told a crowd in Beloit that he wanted to lead America because of the "fierce urgency of now."

"We cannot afford to wait," he said. "We cannot wait to bring this war in Iraq to a close. The war in Iraq was unwise. We have to use our military wisely."

Meanwhile Hillary Clinton was in Madison Monday night, where she touched on themes "that were long on economic issues and strongly aimed at middle-class voters."

"It is long past time that we get back to having a champion for the American people in the White House," Clinton told a crowd of 5000 in Madison. (But that crowd was small compared to the 17,000 that filled the Kohl Center in Madison beyond capacity at an Obama rally last week.)

And the Hawaii Star-Bulletin reports that the chance at actually helping to make a difference in who wins the nomination means that there will be a huge turnout for tonight's Democratic caucuses - triple the 4000 who caucused in 2004.

"Presidential hopefuls Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois are vying for Hawaii's 20 delegates and nine superdelegates. Obama, who was born on Oahu and graduated from Punahou School, has generated plenty of interest locally, while Clinton has the support of Hawaii's top Democrat, U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye, and a powerful government workers union."

Problems for Ron Paul in Texas District

Texas Rep. Ron Paul is an enigma for sure. He seldom scores above single digits in Republican primaries and caucuses (although he has done well in several states), various media outlets have tried to finagle their candidate debates so he doesn't make the cut, and he not unfamiliar with controversy. Yet he has a profile that goes far beyond these problems, thanks to the passion of his supporters, his and their ability to fund raise, and his willingness to take out-of-party positions on issues like the Iraq war.

But that willingness to go against the flow may be hurting him back in his district in Texas. Not everyone there is happy with the positions he has taken and as Texas Public Radio's David Davies reports, a Republican challenger has risen to try and wrest away the 14th Texas district. Chris Peden, an accountant and city councilor from Friendswood, says he is the real conservative in the race. Paul opposition to the war, in particular, has angered some of his constituents.

"People believe that he doesn't represent their values and they've learned that during the presidential debate," says Peden.

Recently Paul admitted on his website that he knew wasn't going to win the Republican nomination but that he intended to fight on until the convention in order to promote his ideas. But he also said he was going to refocus on his district because he knew the people who oppose him would like nothing more than to see him lose there.

The primary for the 14th district is March 4.

February 18, 2008

Bowling for Wisconsin

Former President George HW Bush is throwing his support to John McCain today. But McCain's Republican rival Mike Huckabee isn't dropping out of the race. The former Arkansas Governor is busy campaigning in Wisconsin for tomorrow's primary.

"What we need to do is make sure the people of Wisconsin recognize that they are going out and voting their own conscience," Huckabee said last night. "Not doing what somebody in the establishment is telling them. Because this vote is about the future of the Republican party. What kind of party we're going to have in the future."

Huckabee spoke at a Milwaukee bowling alley, where he and his wife Janet bowled a friendly game with the news media.

"People who run for office ought to be able to connect with ordinary folks," Huckabee said, after lacing up his size 12, blue and red rented shoes.

The Huckabees, who confessed to being somewhat out of practice, had a combined score of 86. The populist former minister with a conservative social message bowls like he campaigns. On his last frame, he knocked down several pins on the right and a couple on the left, but most of the pins in the center were still standing.

After the game, the Huckabees posed for pictures with supporters. Ryan Paquette stood in line for an autograph. "He's the only candidate who's really been aligned with my values," said the young aerospace technician, who was wearing a "Promise Keepers" T-shirt. "It's really important to me that we get this nation back on a godly track. And he's the man to do it."

Not everyone was bowled over by the candidate's visit. Roofer Douglas Bogardus just dropped in for a game and was surprised to find a swarm of TV cameras in the lanes.
"I'm more of a John McCain fan myself," Bogardus said.

-- Scott Horsley

February 15, 2008

New Polls Good News for Clinton and Obama

There are polls out with good news for both Senator Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama ... and a bit of a warning for Sen. John McCain.

In Texas, a new Texas Credit Union League poll shows that Sen. Clinton continues to have a strong lead in Texas, despite her string of recent losses. The poll of 400 likely voters shows Clinton with a 49-41 edge. A Rasmussen poll shows an even larger lead - the survey of 577 likely Democratic voters shows Clinton with a 54-38 lead.

A Quinnipiac poll of Ohio of 574 likely voters shows her with a 21-point lead over Obama - 55-34, and she has a 52 percent to 36 percent lead in Pennsylvania.

The TCUL poll, however, has a bit of a warning for Republican John McCain. It shows that he only has a 44-41 lead over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. (The Rasmussen poll of 796 likely Republican voters is a bit better - 45 percent for McCain and 37 percent for Huckabee.)

Meanwhile a new Zogby poll indicates that if Sen. Barack Obama does win the Democratic nomination, he stand a good chance in a national election. Against McCain, the Zogby poll of more than 7000 online panel participants shows Obama winning 47 percent to 36 percent. (The same poll shows McCain with a 42 to 37 percent lead over Clinton.

Obama on Education: Charter Schools and Vouchers?

Mickey Kaus at Slate presents a case, made on recent statements by and about Sen. Barack Obama, that he is not as "left" on education as some of his supporters might believe.

Kaus points to a recent article at the Democrats for Educations Reform website that points out that Obama has said that charter schools are one of the places where he has broken away from other Democrats (he likes them); that in an interview with the Baltimore Sun when asked how the "troubled No Child Left Behind education program might be salvaged, Mr. Obama said achievement testing should not be abandoned but rather complemented with other measures of progress and more aid for schools."; and that while he "worried that vouchers won't generate the kind of supply of high-quality schools we will need" if vouchers are shown to work for students "he wouldn't allow his skepticism to stand in the way of doing something to help them."

"You do what works for the kids," Obama said.

The article on the Democrats for Education Reform site also quotes Obama as saying at a fundraiser in New York last year that the reason that it was difficult for Democrats to support charter schools was "the teachers unions as the obstacle on the political side. He noted that the American public was hungry for change and that the unions' leadership was going to have to decide whether they want to be in on it, or be completely left behind."

But Obama's positions about education appear more nuanced than the original piece might indicate - he also added in his interview with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel editorial board cited in the Kaus article that he also believes that teachers need to be paid more money, be better trained, given more support, principals be better prepared and that teaching colleges should be accredited. But he believes that just throwing money at the problem isn't the answer, and that education reform requires that a variety of changes be implemented.

Many Superdelegates Still Uncommitted

The hottest topic is Democratic political circles these days appears to be superdelegates and just who they will support. Superdelegates are party officials, elected representatives and special DNC delegates named by party chairman Howard Dean. The number of superdelegates seems hard to pn down and -- as NPR Senior Washington Editor Ron Elving points out - that number may go up depending on the fate of the Florida and Michigan delegations, who are currently not allowed to seat their delegates at the national convention.

But most current totals are 796.

Although this number may change - since they can change their who they are supporting whenever they want to - 242 superdelegates have committed to Sen. Hillary Clinton, 156 for Obama and 320 remain uncommitted. (There are also 76 "add-on" uncommitted delegates.)

Politico.com has compiled a list of superdelegates from each state. If you want to see who the superdelegates are in your area, and who they are or aren't supporting, check out this list.

John McCain's Conservative Problem Remains

Republican Senator John McCain is slowly putting the building blocks in place to cement his hold on his party's nomination for president. Thursday his one-time chief rival, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney announced his support for McCain and asked his delegates to switch their alliegance to McCain. Friday former President George H. W. Bush announced that he will give his endorsement to the Arizona senator.

But that darn conservative problem won't go away.

Take this opinion piece written by former Pennsylvania Senator (and prominent conservative) Rick Santorum in the Philadelphia Inquirer about McCain: 'The Elephant in the Room: The conservative jury is still out on backing McCain"

Santorum notes that if McCain does get the nomination (which looks increasingly likely), he won't be the first moderate to carry the Republican banner into an election campaign. In fact, he writes, until 1980 almost all the GOP nominees were moderates. But that was then, Santorum says, this is now. Before that date, the two parties had both "liberal" and "conservative" wings. But after the 60s, when Democrats moved more to the left and the GOP adopted Nixon's "Southern Strategy" to lure conservative Democrats away from their party, things have changed. Now Santorum see the Democrats as liberal and the Republican as conservative. Period.

"Conservatives understand just how consequential the 2008 election will be. It could very well result in the election of a Democratic president who's prepared to reshape America culturally and economically and unprepared to defend the nation against our foreign enemies. Yet we see a presumptive Republican nominee who has too often joined the very people who seek to destroy and replace what we fight to conserve and improve. And so we wonder: Is this the man we can trust to take our case to the American people?

"Many of us want a leader who believes in his core that this race is a fight for the soul of America, her Judeo-Christian tradition, her sovereignty, her courage to defeat not appease or surrender to her enemies, her belief in capitalism and limited government, and her commitment to equality of opportunity, not result. We want a leader who's not interested in moving the country in the same direction as Clinton and Obama, only slower."

In the end, Santorum writes, conservatives have yet to see how McCain will embrace those values listed above.

Clinton Video Leads to Unintentional Guffaws

This story just goes to prove that the road to hell in the blogosphere is paved with good intentions.

Last August, Gene Wang, Silicon Valley executive (he handles the overseas marketing for Hewlett-Packard's handheld division) and ardent Sen. Hillary Clinton supporter, decided to do something to support her. Last August he got together a lot of young people and some musicians (including himself - he plays the flute)and some video makers and he created "Hillary4U&Me."

He uploaded the video to YouTube and it sat there for a while ... through the late summer, through the fall fund raising follies, through Obama's victory in Iowa, through the Clinton comeback in New Hampshire, through Super Tuesday and the Potomac Primaries ... but on the Internet, nothing remains buried for long.

Maybe it was the recent video by Will.i.am for Obama, with its high-powered film and music stars and slick production values, that made people look for other "music videos" about the candidates. Whatever the reason, "Hillary4U&Me" was rediscovered this week. The result was a bloodbath.

The video quickly became fodder for the kind of attacks that one can only find in the blogosphere. The reaction was so negative, some bloggers actually put forward the theory that it was created by the Obama camp to discredit Clinton.

The video itself? Think "Up with People" in the Nixon-era. Here it is:

But to his credit, Wang is not backing down. He told The New York Times that he's proud of the work he's done.

"I do agree that some of the Obama videos are better. But we have the better candidate by far," he wrote in an e-mail message. He added: "For all the naysayers, I'd like to see their YouTube music video."
He believes that the criticism is born of the antagonism some Obama supporters feel toward Clinton. And, far from being discouraged, he said the critics have inspired him: "It kind of makes me want to do another one."

Er, maybe that needs a little more thought.

Clinton On Verge of Losing Prominent Black Supporter

Georgia Democratic Rep. John Lewis is an icon of the civil rights movement. And he's been one of Sen. Hillary Clinton's most prominent supporters. Only a month ago he was saying that the comparisons of Sen. Barack Obama to legendary American historical figures like J.FK. or Bobby Kennedy or the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. were mistaken - that Obama had the words right, but basically lacked the substance these others possessed.

But it looks like he might be changing his mind.

The New York Times reports that Thursday night Lewis (one of those enigmatic superdelegates) said he will cast his vote for Obama.

"In recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit," said Mr. Lewis, a Georgia Democrat who endorsed Mrs. Clinton last fall. "Something is happening in America, and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap."

Lewis said the primary reason for his decision to vote for Obama was that his district overwhelmingly voted for him in the Georgia Democratic primary. Lewis has not formally taken the step of officially changing his ming and endorsing the Illinois Senator. but he said he would make a formal decision within days.

As Andrew Sullivan notes in his Daily Dish blog at TheAtlantic.com, losing Lewis would be a major blow to Clinton.

If Lewis's original endorsement of the Clintons was a huge blow to Obama, then his reversal is an even bigger blow to the Clintons. The Obama campaign has now not only built a rival machine to the Clintons', it is poaching loyalists. A figure like Lewis also brings, for good reason, a vast moral credibility with him. He gives permission - even encouragement - for other Clinton super-delegates to move to prevent a bruising and bitter fight through the spring. It's a tipping point. I predict others will follow. And what both Clinton and Obama have to avoid is a polarizing racial divide.

February 14, 2008

Romney Says He's Honored to Endorse McCain

NPR's Scott Horsley sends along the news that Mitt Romney will hold a press conference in Boston at 4 p.m. today and he will endorse Republican Senator John McCain's bid for the party's presidential nomination.

Political Intelligence, the politics blog at the Boston Globe, reports that Romney will ask his delegates to support McCain. "By the Associated Press tally, with Romney's 280, that would virtually clinch the Republican nomination for McCain, giving him 1,123 total, just shy of the 1,191 total."

The announcement shows that, even though McCain once compared Romney to a pig and Romney questioned McCain's conservative credentials, in politics almost all sins are forgiven ... at least when you want to get one up on the other party.

Update: MSNBC's First Read says that it might not be all that easy for Romney to "give" McCain his delegates. Romney can basically release his delegates and ask them to support McCain, but it's pretty fuzzy about his being able to bind them to McCain. For instance, in many states, thet actual delegates who will go to the convention haven't been chosen yet.

More: Romney told the press conference that he is honored to support McCain.

"Even when the contest was close and our disagreements were debated, the caliber of the man was apparent," the former Massachusetts governor said, standing alongside his former rival at his now-defunct campaign's headquarters. "As a party, we come together."

And as noted above, AP reports that Romney won't be able to hand over all his delegates to McCain.

Many are from caucus states that won't select the actual delegates until state conventions this spring. Those delegates will be selected by people who supported Romney in the initial caucuses; the direction they go depends on whether they follow Romney's lead in endorsing McCain.

In other states, the delegates are bound to Romney, and their fate is governed by state party rules. In states like Montana, where Romney has 25 delegates, they would be free to support whomever they choose after Romney releases them.

House Proposes New Version of Farm Bill

House lawmakers proposed a new version of the farm bill in an effort to get it approved by the president. The White House has said that the original bill was full of "wasteful spending."

The Associated Press reports that House Agriculture Committee Chairman Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson, and Virginia Rep. Robert Goodlatte, the top Republican on the committee, are proposing stricter limits on subsidies paid to wealthy farmers and slashing extra spending for farm programs.

But it isn't going to be easy. Already several prominent senators from both parties have said they won't support the House bill. Democratic Sen. Max Baucus, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee (which also has jurisdiction over the bill), said the Peterson proposal wasn't going to fly.

(One of the programs that was scheduled for the cutting block in Peterson's new program was a $5 billion fund created by Baucus to subsidize farmers who have lost crops due to weather-related disasters.)

This had been a long-running show - the House passed its version of the bill in July of 2007 and the Senate in December. But the White House said it has too many "extras." The new version by Peterson would reduce extra spending for farm programs by $6 billion over ten years.

But Peterson and Senate Agricultural chairman sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa are playing tough as well. They've said if they can't reach an agreement by March 15, they "might bypass an extension of current law - it expires March 15 - and allow farm policy to revert to permanent statutes last updated in 1949" - which would end subsidies and programs for almost all sectors of the agricultural industry.

Europeans Paying Close Attention to U.S. Primaries

People on both sides of the Atlantic, it seems, are paying close attention to this year's Republican and Democratic presidential races.

Cable news outlets have been crowing about the audiences for their debates and coverage of primaries and caucuses. Even here at NPR.org, we've definitely seen a lot more attention being paid to political issues on our Web site, especially on the days when people are voting.

But surprise, it seems that Europeans are just as fascinated with this election cycle as are Americans. The Washington Times reports that "Europeans across the old continent have been transfixed by the U.S. presidential race, gobbling up press reports and wrestling with the intricacies of the primary system in search of clues to the likely next president."

The article points to the various signs of this interest: In France, U.S. election coverage is often more popular that news of President Sarkozy's romance with model Carla Bruni. German TV stations have had to send extra reporters to America to keep pace with their audience's interest in the races. Suddenly everyone in Europe is interested in the primary system and how it works.

The British newspaper, the Guardian, for instance, has a U.S. election page that would be the envy of many American newspapers. After the Iowa caucus in January, Daily Telegraph columnist Janet Daley compared the "sense of joyous excitement" in the moment to the "vague contempt in Britain" for the their election process.

"I can't count the number of media calls and inquiries we've received," Eric R. Staal, country chairman of the Republicans Abroad organization in Germany, told the Times.

"I think the fact that there is an African-American and a woman in the race adds to the level of excitement," Staal said. Hillary Clinton, New York Democrat, "is a lightning rod for polarization; that too attracts a lot of interest."

2:44 PM ET | 02-14-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

McCain's Ability to Reinvent Himself Nothing New

It looks like Sen. John McCain will soon be the Republican party's nominee for president in the 2008 election. But if you read Jonathan Chait's most recent piece in The New Republic (where he is a senior editor), in 2002 the idea that McCain would one day be the chosen one of the party looked about as likely as the Tampa Devil Rays winning the next World Series.

Sen. john McCain with GOP House leadership.

(L-R) U.S. House Minority Whip Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), Rep. Adam Putnam (R-FL) and Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) stand behind Republican U.S. presidential front runner Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) (C) during a news conference at the Capitol Hill Club February 13, 2008 in Washington, DC. McCain has received an endorsement from the Republican House leadership.

Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images

But Chait says isn't all that surprising when one considers that McCain has "reinvented himself so completely that it has become nearly impossible to figure out what he really believes."

"Political conversions are hardly new or scandalous," Chait writes. "McCain's ideological transformation is unusual for two reasons: First, he has moved across the political spectrum not once--like Al Smith or Mitt Romney--but twice. And, second, he refuses to acknowledge his change."

Chait argues that during President Bush's first term "It is no exaggeration to say that, during this crucial period, McCain was the most effective advocate of the Democratic agenda in Washington." In the areas of health-care, financial reform, prescription drugs, drilling in the Arctic Wildlife Preserve, he worked with Democrats to advance what were basically their positions. (But he wasn't a "liberal" but a progressive in the style of Teddy Roosevelt.) This is why, Chait writes, that so many hard-core conservatives are beside themselves that McCain is now their standard bearer.

But after his flirtation with becoming a Democrat or being Sen. John Kerry's running mate in 2004, he realized that his only path to the presidency lay through the Republican Party. So slowly his positions began to evolve back towards the conservative mainstream.

The amazing thing about McCain is that his reputation for principled consistency has remained completely intact. It is his strongest cudgel against opponents. Wall Street Journal editorial page columnist Kimberley Strassel recently gushed that McCain is "no flip-flopper." "Like or dislike Mr. McCain's views," she added, "Americans know what they are." Then, in the very next paragraph, she wrote that McCain will now be "as pure as the New Hampshire snow on the two core issues of taxes and judges" and that "[t]he key difference between Mr. McCain in 2000 and 2008 is that he...appears intent on making amends" to conservatives.

Is Chait correct? Has McCain been able to basically change his positions not once, but twice? Or is it that the Republican Party has changed and McCain's progressive attitudes are now more welcome - with a few "moderations" on taxes and judges?

McCain Adviser Won't Stay if Obama is Dem Nominee

In a surprising twist, Mark McKinnon - chief media adviser to Senator John McCain - told Michele Norris on All Things Considered that he won't stay with the McCain campaign if Sen. Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.

Mark McKinnon with then Gov. Bush in 2000

In this photo from 2000, then Gov. George W. Bush (R) gets some direction from Mark McKinnon (L) during a dress rehearsal at the Republican National Convention.

STEPHEN JAFFE/AFP/Getty Images

McKinnon, who helped George W. Bush beat back McCain's challenge in 2000, said that McCain would have his support 100 percent if he is the GOP nnominee, but he would be uneasy about facing Obama in an election because of the use of the kind of attack tactics that inevitable come to the fore in a general election.

"I met Barack Obama, I read his book, I like him a great deal. I disagree with him on very fundamental issues. But I think, as I said, I think it would a great race for the country. I would simply be uncomfortable being in a campaign that would be inevitably attacking Barack Obama. I think it would be uncomfortable for me, and I think it would be bad for the McCain campaign."

McKinnon, who also said that the plan since last summer's nadir for McCain had always been to just "stay in the game," also talked about the challenges still facing the McCain camp, especially with conservative Republicans.

Why Does Clinton Turn Some Women Voters Off?

Here is a comment from reader Susan Reynolds about Sen. Hillary Clinton:

Most of my life I identified as a Democrat & worked with the McGovern campaign back in the day. But for over a decade I've been a registered Republican. Even as the mother of three daughters who taught them that they could do anything, Hillary holds no appeal to me. That said, I did not use a Democratic ballot in VA to register my opinion about her yesterday. It is however the very fact that I seriously considered it that says something about many women's feelings about Hillary that can't really be put into words. I'd love to see a female president. But casting Hillary in that role in history is very distasteful to me.

More than a few women who've commented in the blog had made similar comments. What is it about Sen. Clinton that pushes away women voters who would normally "love to see a female president"? And Clinton supporters, what are they missing?

February 13, 2008

Senate Votes to Prevent CIA Using Waterboarding

The Senate this afternoon voted to join the House and prevent the Central Intelligence Agency from using waterboarding and other "enhanced interrogation techniques." The Senate bill requires the CIA to stick with the 19 interrogation techniques outlined in the Army field manual.

Republican Sen. Kit Bond, vice-chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said that the CIA has used enhanced interrogation techniques on "maybe three dozen" detainees, but if the Senate voted to stop the procedure, it would dry up the most valuable source of information available to the intelligence community. But Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller said that in all the briefings he had attended in his role as head of the Senate Intelligence Committee, he saw no evidence to back up the intelligence community's need for the enhanced techniques. He also said that by preventing these techniques it would increase America's security.

Sen. John McCain, who has been an outspoken opponent of waterboarding, voted against the Senate's measure to restrict the CIA from using it.

CIA Director Michael Hayden has said waterboarding may not be legal under current law. President Bush has threatened to veto any bill that limits CIA interrogation techniques.

Meanwhile, NPR's Ari Shapiro talked to U.S. Attorney General Mike Mukasey about this first three months in office, including the controversy over waterboarding.

Kristol on McCain: 'I'm Not an Adviser'

A media culpa.

Earlier, I wrote a blog item inspired by a variety of reports from respected news organizations (Arizona Republic, Washington Post, and most recently, last weekend, the McClatchy newspapers) saying that conservative commentator William Kristol is an informal foreign policy adviser to presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain. I asked a simple question: why wasn't that disclosed in Kristol's columns on the presidential race in The New York Times?

Kristol himself offers a simple answer: he's not an adviser to the McCain camp. (Charles Kaiser of Radar online was on McClatchy's case, with this exchange with Kristol. McClatchy's Warren P. Strobel, who wrote the article last weekend citing Kristol, told Radar this: "I was told by folks in the campaign that he was among those who provide advice in the campaign. I never said he was a paid 'adviser.")

"Of course, do I talk about foreign policy with John McCain? Yes. Do I talk about foreign policy with John Kerry? Yes, I do," Kristol says. "I'm not an adviser to the campaign like people who are formal advisers like Max," a reference to Max Boot, of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Los Angeles Times.

Kristol is the editor of the conservative Weekly Standard and a frequent political commentator on the Fox News Channel. "I don't normally endorse people," Kristol says. "I obviously have my views, which are not particularly disguised. I agree with McCain more than John Kerry --- but I am not on the campaign, or anyone's campaign."

Kristol also says he's not a frequent date for any major politician -- he says he talked about foreign policy over coffee with Senator Kerry in 2003, ahead of Kerry's presidential run, and he's spoken to McCain once in the past five months. As for those reports that he was an unpaid, even informal adviser? "I don't know where that comes from," Kristol says.

-- David Folkenflik

5:36 PM ET | 02-13-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Did Virginia Conservatives Vote Against Clinton?

A reader, who sent in this comment, asks if there were other voters like her in Virginia:

I believe this kind of coverage is accurate [McCain's problems with conservatives in Virginia]. However, I am appalled that there seemed to be little attempt to find out how many "democrat" voters were like me, conservatives, who knowing McCain was okay, crossed to the other side to vote against Hillary. Anybody but!

Virginia was the only "open" primary last night, where people could vote in either of the two contests. But what about the reader's question? Any other conservatives out there who intentionally crossed party lines in order to vote against Sen. Hillary Clinton?

Pettitte Says Clemens Admitted HGH Use, Clemens Disagrees

New York Yankee pitcher Andy Pettitte said in a deposition to Congress that then-fellow Yankees pitcher Roger Clemens told him 10 years ago that he used human growth hormone (HGH). Pettitte's statement could mean a lot more trouble for Clemens when he testifies to Congress today. Clemens, who was named as an HGH user in baseball's Mitchell Report, has repeatedly denied using any performance-enhancing drug.

" ...Pettitte also told the committee that Clemens backtracked when they talked about HGH again in 2005, the same year Congress held its first hearing on steroids in baseball, the AP said. Clemens said then that Pettitte misunderstood the earlier conversation and that he actually had been talking about his wife using HGH, the AP reported."

Media sources have reported that Clemens' wife had received an injection before a photo shoot. He told Congress today that Pettitte "misremembered" his remarks about HGH.

In his opening statement before Congress this morning, Clemens said that his former trainer Brian McNamee, who was the source for the allegations that he used drugs to improve his performance, was a liar. For his part, McNamee told Congress that he had injected Clemens with drugs more often than he had first acknowledged.

3:00 PM ET | 02-13-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

Looking into the Kristol Ball

(Editor's note: For an update on Kristol's relationship with the McCain campaign, see update below.)

Bill Kristol is a widely sought commentator --- he's the editor of the conservative Weekly Standard, a regular analyst on the Fox News channel, and, as I'm writing this, I'm also watching him during an appearance on the Daily Show. In the times I've interviewed him over the years, he's been unfailingly genial and patient.

Yet The New York Times sparked an intense but relatively brief outrage over the New Year when it appointed him to be a weekly columnist for a year. Much of the annoyance was ideological, and on the left -- in no small part because Kristol is so firmly linked to the justification for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. I just heard him say Iraq would be judged as having turned out "better than Vietnam, better than Korea." Stewart seemed disbelieving. (Additionally, some at the Times have not forgotten Kristol suggested the government consider prosecuting the paper in 2006 for disclosures of how it tries to track terrorist finances.)

After a first few creaky columns, Kristol seems to be hitting a stronger stride and inspiring fewer complaints. Monday morning he wrote yet another column about the presidential races: "So around 9 p.m. Tuesday night, television networks probably will be announcing, for the first time, that Barack Obama holds an unambiguous delegate lead."

And Kristol seems to be more or less right about that -- depending on how you define the word unambiguous. (Those pesky Democratic "Super-delegates" who are not picked by voters but by their status within the parties aren't prevented from shifting their loyalties with changes in the prevailing political winds.)

In his brief tenure as a weekly Times columnist, Kristol's written a lot about other candidates too, including Republican candidates Mike Huckabee and John McCain. But he hasn't seen fit, at least not that I've seen, to mention in his column that he's been a member of McCain's kitchen cabinet of advisers about national security issues.

Kristol is absolutely not keeping this a secret ---- it's been reported previously, say, in this chart in the Washington Post last fall, or this article in McCain's hometown Arizona Republic back in the summer of 2006.

Continue reading "Looking into the Kristol Ball" »

2:27 PM ET | 02-13-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Close Contest in Virginia Illustrates McCain's Problem

Sen. John McCain had the kind of night Tuesday that leaves one feeling both victorious and nervous at the same time. While he swept the Republican contests in Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia, Morning Edition reports that his far-from-overwhelming victory over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Virginia shows McCain still has work to do with conservatives, particularly religious conservatives in his party.

While McCain did well in urban areas of Virginia, rural parts of the state rejected him. As Dana Milbank writes in his Washington Sketch column in the Washington Post, "Though the conservative establishment is slowly reaching for the nose clips, the McCain scent has proved stubborn and noxious."

But as Ed Morrissey writes in his Captain's Quarters blog, even with these strong showing, Huckabee is running out of places where he can count on a strong conservative vote.

"In fact, even if he had a chance to win the rest of the states, it still couldn't keep McCain from winning the nomination. Huckabee said last night that his strategy is to get to the convention with the nomination still open, and hope to win an open convention. Since the rest of the states allocate delegates proportionally, the mathematics are all but impossible."

And Byron York, NRO's White House correspondent, writes that there is a distinct sense of pragmatism around the Huckabee camp these days. He writes that if Huckabee loses the Texas primary on March 4, he'll probably call it a day.

9:47 AM ET | 02-13-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

Obama Takes Delegate Lead ... But What About "Supers"

Sen. Barack Obama, who over the past few weeks has been chipping away at Sen. Hillary Clinton's delegate count, has moved into the lead after his victories last night in the Potomac Primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

According to The Associated Press's count, Obama now had 1,223 delegates - 1,063 pledged through victories in Democratic primaries and caucuses, and 160 superdelegates - while Clinton has 1,198 total delegates - 956 through the caucuses and the primaries, and 242 superdelegates.

But while Obama has had an impressive caucus/primary win streak, the race remains a virtual tie - which again raises the issue of the role superdelegates may play. NPR's political editor, Ken Rudin, looks at this issue in his weekly Political Junkie column. Ken looks at the role superdelegates played in the victory of Walter Mondale in 1984. But he adds it's a lot different this time out.

But here's the rub: If they [superdelegates] declare a preference now, while the primaries are still going on and the two candidates effectively even, they have the potential for ending a nominating contest while the voters are still weighing the pros and cons of Obama and Clinton. That could have the effect of not only leaving a lot of voters furious, but it could come at a time when many Democrats are looking at the November general election with excited anticipation. Let's face it, Walter Mondale was not going to defeat President Reagan in 1984. Conversely, either Obama or Clinton has a solid shot at winning the general election this time around -- but not if one party faction, African Americans or women, feels the rug being pulled from under them. (Donna Brazile, for one, says she will resign from the Democratic National Committee if the superdelegates determine the party's nominee.)

And Ken adds if the Clinton campaign succeeds in getting the disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan seated for the convention, "It might make the protests at the 1968 Chicago convention look like a tea party."

Fact Checking Ron Paul: Not Everything Computes

Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul's supporters often clamor for Paul to be treated the same as other candidates in the Republican presidential race. They frequently say that Paul is overlooked by most traditional media (including us here at NPR - just read any of the comments on any posting about Paul in this blog), despite his fund raising prowess and his legion of passionate supporters, particularly on the Internet

So the Annenberg Political Fact Check, a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania - best known for their website FactCheck.org, decided to give Paul the same fact-checking treatment that it gives the candidates who have the best chance of winning the party's nomination.

FactCheck.org looked at several statements made by Paul about things like the "NAFTA Super Highway," that the U.S. spends $1 trillion per year to maintain a foreign empire and suggests that we could save that amount by cutting foreign spending, and about his endorsement from Ronald Reagan. And basically they discovered that much of what he has to say about these particular issues should be viewed with a healthy skepticism.

Continue reading "Fact Checking Ron Paul: Not Everything Computes" »

February 12, 2008

The "Toscanini" of the Telestrator

If you watch cable TV as the primary returns roll in on big voting nights -- and no, boss, I'm not advocating such a radical step when my worthy NPR colleagues are on the air during our special coverage -- it's worth taking a look over at CNN and watch an extraordinary marriage of insight and technology.

I often find the bells and whistles on election nights to be overdone and underwhelming -- a desperate attempt to distract you from the absence of substance. Still, all of the television networks have introduced new graphic looks -- and our high-amped friends at Wired Magazine have beaten us to the punch in describing it down to the last pixil.

But when CNN turns things over to chief national correspondent John King, the man becomes the Toscanini of the Telestrator. He stands before a giant screen and manipulates maps as though they were icons on a giant iPhone display -- highlighting then and shunting aside states -- burrowing down to the county level and then local level --- identifying and magnifying key districts -- even using satellite photos, in one case, to show how the economy of one part of Northern Virginia is dependent on the industry linked to one building: the Pentagon.

As I watched some of the returns earlier this evening, I felt I understood where and how Mike Huckabee's surprising levels of support were emerging in the Republican primary vote in Virginia. Technology that illuminated rather than distracted -- who would have thunk it?

-- David Folkenflik

10:16 PM ET | 02-12-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

McCain Picks Up Another Win in DC

Sen. John McCain made it a clean sweep in the Potomac primaries, as NPR projects that he will win the Republican primary in Maryland.

Although tonight's victories move McCain even close to clinching the GOP presidential nomination, NPR's Nancy Cook reports that his rival, Mike Huckabee, will continue his campaign.

Huckabee's campaign chairman, Ed Rollins, said that Huckabee plans to compete until one of the candidates has the required 1,191 Republican delegates necessary to clinch the nomination.
"We have always wanted to get it down to one-on-one," Rollins said. "This is what he wants to go. Getting Romney out of the race obviously eliminates a guy who had an advantage with money."

Obama, McCain Pick Up Win in Maryland

Sen. Barack Obama made it three out of three in the Potomac Primaries, as NPR projects that he is going to win the Democratic primary in Maryland. Meanwhile, NPR also projects that Sen. John McCain will pick up his second victory of the night in Maryland.

9:34 PM ET | 02-12-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

McCain Wins Virginia, Clinton Loses Top Campaign Aide

NPR projects that Sen. John McCain will win an important victory tonight in the Virginia Republican primary - but not by much. His was in a virtual tie with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee for much of the early evening, but started to pull away as more polls began to report their results.

Meanwhile, Sen. Hillary Clinton suffered another set back tonight when her deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry stepped down. The Associated Press reports that Henry was the campaign's main field architect and was best known "for penning a memo last spring urging Clinton not to compete in Iowa. He called it "our consistently weakest state." The memo was leaked to the media, which embarrassed Clinton as she was beginning to build an organization in Iowa."

Clinton's main campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, resigned on Monday.

9:06 PM ET | 02-12-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Obama Picks Up Second Win in Potomac Primary - DC

NPR projects that Barack Obama will pick up his second win in the so-called Potomac Primary, the District of Columbia. There are 15 delegates at stake.

Meanwhile, officials in Maryland extended the voting times an additional 90 minutes because of weather problems in the area.

(Note: NPR is also Twittering tonight's results. Unfortunately Twitter is down at the moment - we'll resume our coverage there as soon as it becomes available again.)

Barack Obama Wins Virginia Democratic Primary

NPR has projected that Sen. Barack Obama will win the Democratic primary in Virginia.

Obama's triumph made it six straight over Clinton, whose campaign is now struggling to keep up in a race she once commanded.

Exit polls indicate that the race between Sen. John McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is too close to call.

There are 83 delegates at stake in Virginia for the Democrats and 60 delegates for the Republicans.

7:08 PM ET | 02-12-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

No More Money for You!

Drastic times call for drastic actions, and BUILD PAC, the political action committee of the National Association of Home Builders, says it's cutting off contributions to congressional candidates — incumbents and challengers alike.

The reason is visible in almost any neighborhood: The housing market's on the skids. The essential number for home builders, new housing starts, fell 25 percent last year. It was like getting blasted back to 1980.

BUILD PAC's 160-member board said it took the move after watching Congress and the Bush administration fumble the problem for six months. They said the freeze will last "until further notice."

The freeze-out goes against a PAC's raison d'etre. Typically, they're scrutinizing the candidates like judges at the county fair, weighing which pol merits how much money. In fact, in 14 years working this beat for NPR, I can't remember another example.

And BUILD PAC is a serious player in Washington. In 2006, it ranked third in contributions, distributing $2.9 million. (Republicans got 73 percent.) This cycle, it had only given out $865,800 as of Dec. 31 (55 percent to Republicans). It had $1.4 million in the bank.

But unless the housing market comes zooming out of this dive and association members start making money again, BUILD PAC may have much less than usual in its kitty for candidates.

- Peter Overby

Other Races to Watch

While the focus of today's "Potomac Primary" is naturally on the presidential races, Maryland also has two interesting congressional primaries to watch.

In Prince George's County, a Washington, D.C., suburb with a black majority, eight-term Democratic incumbent Albert Wynn is facing a second spirited challenge from Donna Edwards. She lost by just 3 percentage points in 2006 and is better funded this time around. Liberals have been unhappy with Wynn's initial support for the war in Iraq and his vote in favor of a bill tightening bankruptcy rules.

Over on the Eastern Shore (of the Chesapeake Bay, hon) nine-term Republican incumbent Wayne Gilchrest is facing a challenge from his right. Here, conservatives are unhappy that Gilchrest voted in favor of a timeline for withdrawal from Iraq and backed a resolution against the troop surge. He has also taken moderate stands on social issues. His opponents, two state senators, say they are the true Republicans in the race.

- Brian Naylor

6:10 PM ET | 02-12-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

Mormon Story Triggers Atheist Response

Our story this morning on how Mitt Romney's presidential bid affected the image of the Mormon faith prompted some atheists to ask, "Hey, what about us?"

In fact, some of the same public opinion polls that show resistance to a Mormon in the White House show even more distaste for a godless president.

A national Gallup survey in December of 1,027 adults asked whether respondents would vote for a generally well-qualified candidate nominated by their party if that person happened to be Mormon. Seventeen percent said no. But close to half said they wouldn't support an atheist.

The worst showing for Mormons came in an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey last month of 1,008 adults nationwide. Fifty percent of the respondents were either very uncomfortable or had some reservations about supporting a Mormon candidate for president. Atheists weren't on the pollsters' radar screen for that one.

But nonbelievers show up in other surveys and, well, they best be advised to keep their day jobs. A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll in October (900 registered voters) found that 76 percent of the respondents did not think most Americans would be comfortable with an atheist in the White House. Newsweek tried a more specific question in March (1,004 adults). "Would you vote for a political candidate who says he or she is an atheist?" the pollsters asked. Sixty-two percent said no.

There are real people behind these numbers, of course, and we heard from some of them in response to our focus on the Mormon image.

Julie Gosting wrote, "I sympathize with Mr. Romney and his fellow Mormons in the face of this intolerance. I am amazed, however, that they are not aware of their own biases." Gosting then recounts Romney's speech about faith in December and his claim that Jesus Christ is the savior of man. "He is showing little or no respect for those Americans of other or no religions."

Continue reading "Mormon Story Triggers Atheist Response" »

Presidential Fundraising: 2003 x 2

Think there's a recession? Think Americans are holding down their expenses? Then you're not on a presidential campaign.

Last year, Americans — or at least some of them — more than doubled the dollars they gave to the White House hopefuls, compared with 2003: $552 million versus $273 million. We know this thanks to the number-crunchers at the Campaign Finance Institute, which reassesses the presidential money picture after every quarterly report by the candidates to the Federal Election Commission. The latest reports, wrapping up 2007, were filed Jan. 31.

One big surprise: Despite the success of some campaigns raising small-donor money on the Internet (Barack Obama and Ron Paul, take a bipartisan bow), big money is about as important as it was the last time around. Three of every four dollars to Democrat Hillary Clinton came in contributions of $1,000 and up. For Republican Rudolph Giuliani, it was eight out of every 10 bucks.

This also points out a problem for Clinton. With both Democrats scraping for cash, half of Clinton's primary donors have hit the legal limit and can't give any more. Only one-third of Obama's donors have maxed out. So she has more of a need to find fresh donors.

Overall, the 17 top candidates averaged 61 percent of their cash from big donors (one grand or more) and just 26 percent from the little people ($200 or less).

It's undeniable that the Internet has upset the conventional wisdom about raising political money. But has it changed the bottom line? Not last year, it didn't.

- Peter Overby

McCain Rejects Public Financing for Campaign

The co-author of a law designed to limit the influence of money in politics is opting out of public financing for his presidential campaign.

Arizona Sen. John McCain says he won't take federal matching funds, which would have come with strings attached. By rejecting public funds, McCain avoids a $54 million cap on campaign spending.

Both leading Democrats in the race, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, have also rejected public funds.

Each of the Democrats has raised more than twice as much money as McCain so far. But McCain's fundraising has picked up since he won the New Hampshire primary. And it's likely to gain more steam now that he's the presumptive Republican nominee.

- Scott Horsley

1:12 PM ET | 02-12-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

February 11, 2008

Obama Says OK to Debate in Austin, Texas

Democrats can count on at least two more primary debates in the next few weeks. Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton had already agreed to a debate in Cleveland, Ohio in February 26. Now Obama has also accepted an invitation for a forum sponsored by CNN, Univision, and the Texas Democratic Party on Feb. 21 in Austin.

"We are pleased that Sen. Obama will have the opportunity to debate in Texas, and that it will air on Univision, ensuring a wide and diverse audience," Adrian Saenz, the Obama camp's Texas state director, said in a statement.

But by agreeing to the debate in Austin, it leaves the status of another debate in Houston in question. Clinton had said she would participate in a debate being organized by the Greater Houston Partnership and MSNBC on Feb. 28 at the George R. Brown Convention Center. Obama had not agreed to participate in that event.

Parody of Obama "Yes We Can" Video Tweaks McCain

Oh, it's going to be an interesting new media election.

Once upon a time, if you disagreed with a candidate's policies or positions, you wrote a letter to the editor or phoned your local call in show. But that was before the Internet, YouTube and social networking.

These days, you make a parody video of a popular song and stick it up on all the video-sharing sites for the world to see.

Take for instance, this parody of the enormously popular video by Will.i.am that riffs off the Barack Obama campaign theme of "Yes We Can." In this case it's "John.he.is." The parody video, which at first seems like a pro-McCain video, takes phrases from several of his speeches (such as the one about staying in Iraq for "100 years, 1000 years, 10,000 years, as long as it takes" or "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran") and has actors mouth the words (as in the Obama video) but they then make faces and walk away from the camera in disgust.

In a theoretical match-up between Obama and McCain, an Associated Press-Ipsos poll indicated Monday that Obama has a narrow lead, 48 percent to 42 percent. The same poll showed that Sen. Hillary Clinton would lead McCain by a single point, 46 to 45 - statistically a tie.

Are Dems Superdelegates Able to Change Support?

Reader Lisa Arnold asks a pretty pertinent question that a lot of Democrats probably want answered:

I am not clear on this, is it okay to contact Super Delegates and ask them to change their vote or to make arguments in favor of a particular candidate if they are uncommitted?

Ken Rudin, NPR's political editor and the guy who knows probably more about the process that the people who designed it, said you bet the candidates can continue to "work" the 825 superdelegates. They can try as much as they like to get them to switch their positions if they have declared their support for the other candidate.

(Ron Elving, NPR's senior Washington editor says there is lots of "courting" of those delegates happening right now.)

And those superdelegates can move their support back and forth as often as they like, including the moment they actually have to vote at a convention.

D.C. delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton (a superdelegate who has not declared her support) says that there will probably be some sorting out about the role that superdelegates play after this election. She told Tell Me More that if there is a perception that superdelegates are in a "back room" deciding who the nominee will be, people will feel their votes didn't count in the primaries and caucuses. She also said some superdelegates may have trouble if they take a position that is different from the way the Democrats in their state voted.

"I'm not sure we ever thought this through the way we should," she said. "No one anticipated a possible tie."

U.S. Official, 4 Others to be Charged with Spying

The Associated Press reports that a U.S. government official and up to four Chinese nationals, are going to be charged with spying on the United States for China.

Law enforcement officials who spoke on condition of anonymity say the charges are being unsealed later Monday by federal courts in California and Virginia. The officials asked for anonymity because the case has not yet been made public.

It's not clear at this time in which department the official worked, but one reports says it was the Department of Defense.

Officials will hold a news conference at 2 p.m. EST to release more details.

Update: Justice Department officials say that there are two cases, one in Virginia involving an official connected with the Defense Department who had high security clearance, and another in California involving a suspect who allegedly tried to get tech secrets from Boeing and send them to the People's Republic of China.

More: The three individuals in Virginia will actually be charged with a criminal complaint, rather than an indictment. The U.S. official is being charged with, basically, talking to other people about defense documents. Although the other people involved were connected with China, that is the extent of the charges so far.

In the second case, the individuals are being charged with giving U.S. classified documents to China. Justice Department read from letters from officials in the People's Republic of China praising the individual being charged for his work on their behalf.

Evangelical Leader Gary Bauer Endorses McCain

It's an endorsement that's probably going to help Sen. John McCain overcome friction with some religious conservatives.

Gary Bauer, former presidential candidate and a leader of the anti-abortion movement, endorsed McCain Monday, saying that he admired McCain's "consistent 24-year pro-life record and demonstrated commitment to the values that keep our families and communities strong."

Bauer's endorsement will help blunt some of the negative comments that were made about McCain by Focus on the Family's James Dobson, who also endorsed Mike Huckabee. Bauer is the former head of the Family Research Council and founder of the Campaign for Working Families.

Jennifer Skalka of National Journal's Hotline On Call writes that the endorsement, however, is another another sign of just how fractured the Republican Party is at this time.

In announcing the endorsement, The Associated Press said McCain understood why people kept voting for Huckabee, despite the general sentiment that he had the nomination sewn up.

"Because they like him," McCain said. "I never expected a unanimous vote, although I would certainly like to have that. But I think we'll continue to win primaries across the country, including tomorrow.

The Arizona senator admitted he doesn't do well in states with caucuses. But he said many of the next set of elections were in states with primaries, where he predicted he would do much better.

Clinton Campaign Manager Steps Aside

Switching campaign managers any time during a presidential run is never a good sign. And for Sen. Hillary Clinton, replacing her campaign manager right now adds to a perception of desperation in her campaign.

Marc Ambinder writes in his blog at TheAtlantic.com that Patti Solis Doyle is stepping down as Clinton's campaign manager. As Ambers writes, "Was Solis Doyle, who has served in Hillaryland since 1992, shown the door? Or did she decide to leave? ... "In part, this was Patti's choice. She knew that when things start to get funky, you have to make, for appearance sake, some changes," a senior campaign adviser who was briefed on the decision and who is close to Solis Doyle said."

But Solis Doyle had faced internal opposition for some time, particularly after Obama's victory in Iowa and after he fund raised more than the Clinton campaign.

Solis Doyle's replacement is Maggie Williams, a long-time Clinton confidante and her one-time chief of staff during her husband's presidency.

When Williams appointment was announced, columnist Ariana Huffington remembered a piece she has written about Williams ten years ago. Williams left the White House in 1998 after questions arose about her relationship with controversial Democratic fund raiser Johnny Chung, who was convicted of bank fraud, tax evasion, and two misdemeanor counts of conspiring to violate election law. Williams had also faced allegations during the first Clinton term that she had removed the files of deputy White House counsel Vince Foster after his suicide.

Barack Obama Continues Win Streak in Maine

Sen. Barack Obama kept his win streak alive Sunday, taking the Maine caucuses in overwhelming fashion. With 99 percent of the participating precincts reporting, Obama led in state delegates elected over his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, 2,079 to 1,396, with 18 uncommitted.

The victory means an additional 15 delegates for the Illinois senator, while Clinton picked up an additional nine. She still maintains a narrow delegate lead over Obama, 1,136, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates. Obama has 1,108.

But the win in Maine means that Obama swept all the contests over the weekend - caucuses in Nebraska, Washington state and Maine, and a primary in Louisiana. And according to recent polling in Maryland and Virginia over the weekend, he has a double-digit lead over Clinton in both states.

Allison Keyes reported on Morning Edition today that Obama and Clinton are both going after the black vote in Maryland in particular. Obama has the lead, but Keyes says Clinton is not willing to concede the state.

February 10, 2008

Obama Sweeps Three States, Huckabee Wins Two

Democratic Senator Barack Obama had a very good night Saturday, even if it didn't generate massive numbers of delegates. He won the Louisiana primary, and took the caucuses in Washington state and Nebraska. He even won the caucus on the Virgin Islands.

All his margins of victory were substantial. In all, 161 delegates were at stake in the night's contests. The Associated Press reports that Obama won 72 last night and Clinton 40. Overall, Clinton had 1,095 delegates to 1,070 for Obama, counting so-called superdelegates who have declared a perference. They are party leaders not chosen at primaries or caucuses, free to change their minds. A total of 2,025 delegates is required to win the nomination at the national convention in Denver.

Meanwhile, conservative Republicans showed they aren't going to get in line behind Sen. John McCain quite that fast. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the Kansas caucus handily and all the 38 delegates up for grabs. But while he also won Louisiana, he failed to get the required 50 percent needed to win any delegates outright. (He narrowly beat McCain 43 percent to 42 percent.) Instead they will be awarded next weekend at the state convention.

McCain did win the Washington state caucuses - barely. He was the preferred choice of 26 percent of those attending the caucuses. Huckabee was close behind at 24 percent, as was ron Paul at 21 percent. Perhaps the clearest sign of dissatisfaction with McCain was that former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, who suspended his campaign on Thursday, won 17 percent as well.

February 9, 2008

Paul Hints That He Knows He Won't Win Nomination

Texas Rep. Ron Paul gave his clearest signals yet that he knows that he will not win the Republican presidential nomination, and that he intends to concentrate on retaking his seat in the House. The Associated Press reports that Paul sent a message to supporters via his website that "he is making cuts to his national campaign staff and that he must also stay focused on not losing the primary for his House seat."

It was also his clearest sign yet that he does not intend to run as a third-party candidate, despite his supporters' ability to fund raise millions for him.

"If I were to lose the primary for my congressional seat, all our opponents would react with glee, and pretend it was a rejection of our ideas," Paul wrote. "I cannot and will not let that happen."

Texas holds both presidential and congressional primaries on March 4. Paul is opposed in the Republican congressional primary by Chris Peden, a Friendswood, Texas, city councilman.

But Paul also said that he intends to fight on "in every caucus and primary remaining, and at the convention for our ideas, with just as many delegates as I can get."

Huckabee Wins Kansas Caucus

Showing that he is still a factor in the hunt for the Republican nomination, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the caucuses in Kansas today - and all of the 36 delegates at stake. He received 60 percent of the vote to Sen. John McCain's 24 and Rep. Ron Paul's 11.

The win continues Huckabee's streak in states with strong religious conservative groups. He also went for the religious conservative vote in his speech Saturday morning at CPAC, the annual gathering of conservatives in DC.

MSNBC reports: "Sensing the disconnect between social conservatives and de facto Republican nominee Sen. John McCain - one echoed by Huckabee's landslide victory in Saturday's GOP caucus - Huckabee dove right into the breach Saturday morning, brandishing his religious right credentials, first by telling the crowd that Biblical scripture is the root of his political views, and then by quoting Ecclesiastes: 'A wise man's heart directs him toward the right, but a foolish man's heart directs him toward the left.' "

Despite Huckabee's win, McCain still has a large delegate lead.

7:49 PM ET | 02- 9-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

February 8, 2008

New Mexico Dems Still Counting Votes

They're still counting votes in the Democratic primary in New Mexico ... and it's still to close to call.

Not that there is all that much hanging in the balance when the outcome is finally know - just one more delegate. Right now Hillary Clinton has a small lead and one more delegate than her rival, Barack Obama, 13 to 12.

The Associated Press reports that part of the problem is the system that the Democratic Party in the state uses:

"New Mexico Democrats call their contest a caucus, but it's not like Iowa's caucuses where voters gather in gyms, churches or meeting rooms, divide into groups for each candidate, try to attract more support from other groups, and then count each group. Rather it more closely resembles a 'firehall primary' - a primary with shorter voting hours and fewer voting sites than would be found in traditional state primaries."

But the eventual winner will get bragging rights and can add one more state to their Super Tuesday total. If Clinton wins, it cements her reputation as being strong in the Latino community. If Obama wins, it's the flip-side - he beats her in a state where she is supposed to be particularly strong.

Romney Decision May Also Help Democrats

Although he said he was leaving the race because he wanted to give his party a better chance to defeat the Democrats, Mitt Romney may have also unintentionally helped the opposition.

In one way, he did achieve his goal, as Ron Elving, NPR's Senior Washington editor writes in his Watching Washington column. But when he basically handed the Republican nomination to Sen. John McCain, Romney also gave the Democrats a good reason to get their mess sorted out as soon as possible.

Watching the Republicans fall into line behind their nominee ought to make Democrats long for closure as well, especially as they spend tens of millions of their dollars on an internecine struggle -- money they would rather spend against McCain. An endless and debilitating fight of this kind would sap the party's energy and create animosities. A multi-ballot convention might make it all worse.
And if all that waste is not enough to change the minds of many Democrats, the votes of independents and crossover Republicans might be enough to alter the outcomes of future Democratic primaries.

If current trends continue, as they say, with independents moving towards Sen. Barack Obama, then the next round of primaries coming up with open primaries (Virginia, Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina and Indiana) the contest could end sooner rather than later. But you can never discount the Clinton machine and its determination to fight for every delegate - not to mention she still leads in the delegate count, if only by a few.

In the end, Ron writes, he still might come down to the party's superdelegates (party officials, elected representatives). So far 200 of these special delegates have pledged for Clinton and about 120 for Obama. But there are 825 in all (about 40 percent of what you need to win the nomination) and they can all change their minds anytime they like.

And as Ron notes, nothing focuses the mind of a superdelegate on the idea of a Republican nominee already planning for the first Tuesday in November.

Overseas Media React to Super Tuesday, McCain

While it's an American election, the foreign media have been keeping a careful watch on the comings and goings of our presidential race. And the events of the past week - the Super Tuesday results and John McCain's emergence as the Republican frontrunner and probable nominee - have generated some interesting comments.

The BBC reports on the mood of conservatives attending the McCain speech at CPAC Thursday, summing it up as as not happy with McCain as their presidential nominee but "a lack of realistic alternatives gave them little choice."

Julian Sanchez, blogging for the Guardian, picked up on this sentiment as well, finding clues to this feeling of "McCain or the Democrats" in the introduction he received from conservative Senator Tom Coburn.

"As he prepared to hand over the podium to his colleague ... Coburn announced that he would be 'happy to debate anyone who thinks staying home or supporting Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is a better option' than backing McCain. What's telling is that here, at the Woodstock of the American right, he might find quite a few takers."

Larry Derfner, writing in the Jerusalem Post, writes that the best way for McCain to defeat either Obama or Clinton in the fall is to ask Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to be his running mate.

"Rice is attractive and extremely telegenic. She's also a woman and an African-American, which by now aren't fatal flaws in a candidate for president or vice-president, but probably net advantages. This year, for the Republicans, I'd say Rice's gender and race would be nothing less than the gift of life."

But it's Ed O'Loughlin, reporting for the Sydney Morning Herald from Jerusalem, who suggests that it isn't John McCain that the Israeli political establishment is quietly rooting for.

"That unofficial honour goes to Senator Clinton, who Palestinians accuse of taking an increasingly one-sided approach to the Middle East conflict. Visiting the region in 2005 as senator for New York, Senator Clinton shunned the Palestinians completely, meeting only Israeli leaders and hearing and expressing only Israeli positions. She particularly galled Palestinians by enthusiastically backing the 700-kilometre complex of walls and fences that Israel is building inside the West Bank."

Finally, Siri Agrell writes in Canada's Globe and Mail that while every possible demographic has been offered up as the key to winning the election - women, African-Americans, Latinos, for instance the group that might really might hold the key to the White House is "the dude vote."

"If you look at the demographics state by state, you can see that, right now, Obama's being kept alive by white guys," said Richard Parker, a Harvard lecturer and co-founder of Mother Jones magazine. "It's the one group which is not voting identity politics because they don't have a candidate."

People Are Not Happy With President, Congress

It's like a race to the bottom.

President Bush hit his lowest approval rating of his entire presidency, registering a lowly 30 percent in the most recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll. His support among his fellow Republicans also plummeted - just 61 percent gave Bush positive reviews and only 28 percent of them expressed strong approval.

Those surveyed were particularly unhappy with the president on issues like health care, energy and the environment, His approval rating on Iraq was 33 percent, unchanged since the last poll.

But he's not alone - the Democratic-controlled Congress did worse, getting only a 22 percent approval rating. As AP reports, "It's almost as if people can barely stand the thought of President Bush and Congress anymore."

The Congress is only four points from its lowest approval rating ever - 18 percent. That occurred in 1992 during a furor over lawmakers who bounced House bank checks.

February 7, 2008

2008 Headline: Utah Goes for Obama?!?!

Something very, very strange is happening in Utah. And I don't mean polygamy or the liquor laws.

Some of Utah's smartest political prognosticators say Mitt Romney's exit from the Republican presidential campaign could have many Utahns, including Mormon Republicans, crossing the political no-man's land and voting for Democrat Barack Obama in November.

This is no joke. And there's polling that backs up what seems like an unlikely scenario.

It seems unlikely because Utah is often described as the most Republican state in the nation. There are so few Democrats in the state Senate that the Senate Democratic Caucus could meet in a mini-van.

Utah is also 60% Mormon and a Mormon apostle once told the faithful it's not possible to be a good Mormon AND a Democrat. It wasn't until 1978 that Mormon leaders dispensed with a belief that kept African-American males out of the Mormon priesthood, something every other worthy Mormon male easily attained.

So, it's hard to imagine Democrat and African-American Barack Obama with "winner" beside his name when Utah reports its presidential vote in November. But here's how it could happen:

Continue reading "2008 Headline: Utah Goes for Obama?!?!" »

Conservative Bloggers Like What McCain Had to Say

He knew it was going to be a tough room to work, but it didn't seem to deter RepublicanSen. John McCain from his task: persuade the conservatives packing the audience at the CPAC convention in Washington that he really was a conservative and that he wanted to work with them.

When McCain was introduced at the convention by Tom Coburn and George Allen, two prominent conservatives, there were some boos scattered in the crowd. The audience was for the most part attentive: while they booed again when he mentioned immigration, they also cheer when he talked about issues like Iraq, Iran and appointing more judges like "Justices Roberts and Alito."

The reaction in the conservative blogosphere, however, was overall more positive.

Ed Morrissey at Captain's Quarters called it an "excellent speech":

"McCain sounds energized and is commanding the room. It's one of his better speeches, and he's hitting all the right notes for the crowd. A lot of them are his supporters, but Mitt's backers easily outnumbered those at CPAC. At the least, his opponents are giving him a chance to convince them."

They were a bit more skeptical at The Sundries Shack, but still willing to admit it was a strong speech;

"There will need a lot more of that if he really wants conservative support. There are a lot of serious differences between Johnny Mac and conservatism and if he intends to get our support, he's going to have to move closer to us. One of the ways to do that is to be open and honest about how he's going to repair the damage he's done to conservatism."

Hugh Hewitt, one of McCain's most ardent detractors, was gave the speech a thumbs up, calling it "superb": "It was a strong appeal to conservatives' strongest suit --their deep patriotism and their admiration of his sacrifices and service."

Finally, the Campaign Spot at NRO thought it "went pretty well" but left something to be desired: "The speech was well-written and mostly well-delivered. (His voice actually wavered as he said, 'It is a deep and unwavering love.') Patrick Hynes, McCain's web guy, just asked me what I think. I said, good, but I felt like it didn't quite soar. It went well, it did what it needed to do, conservatives are going to walk of the room feeling better about McCain than when they entered, but it wasn't quite a home run... Not sure what it was missing...."

6:10 PM ET | 02- 7-2008 | permalink | e-mail post | trackbacks (0)

McCain's Task Stays the Same: Win Over Conservatives

Mitt Romney is gone, his campaign suspended. Sen. John McCain, the frontrunner before Romney's announcement, has a relatively clear path to the nomination.

Yet he still has a problem - those suspicious conservatives. (As NPR's David Folkenflik reported recently conservative talk-radio has been hammering McCain like he's gong.) Currying favor was one of the reasons McCain asked to be put on the speaker's list for the conservative CPAC convention in Washington. (He turned them down last year.) He'll give his speech there shortly.

But that was before the Romney announcement when it looked like he really needed conservative support. So does that mean he'll change his approach to the talk, knowing that the nomination is probably his regardless of how the conservatives feel about him?

Probably not, says Ken Rudin, NPR's political editor. While he might not need them for the nomination, he'll need them in the fall general election. Ken says the task remains the same for McCain - winning over dubious conservatives.

We'll have more here later after McCain's speech.

Update:

Ed Morrissey, of Captain's Quarters, who is live blogging the MCain speech, writes that he had just the right approach when he made these remarks near the beginning of his speech;

"And I am acutely aware that I cannot succeed in that endeavor, nor can our party prevail over the challenge we will face from either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama, without the support of dedicated conservatives, whose convictions, creativity and energy have been indispensible to the success our party has had over the last quarter century. Many of you have disagreed strongly with some positions I have taken in recent years. I understand that. I might not agree with it, but I respect it for the principled position it is. And it is my sincere hope that even if you believe I have occasionally erred in my reasoning as a fellow conservative, you will still allow that I have, in many ways important to all of us, maintained the record of a conservative. Further, I hope you will grant that I have defended many positions we share just as ardently as I have made my case for positions that have provoked your opposition. If not, thank you for this opportunity to make my case today."

More ...: Morrissey writes: "McCain sounds energized and is commanding the room. It's one of his better speeches, and he's hitting all the right notes for the crowd. A lot of them are his supporters, but Mitt's backers easily outnumbered those at CPAC. At the least, his opponents are giving him a chance to convince them."

More ...: Erik at RedState.com likes what he heard too, calling it the "best speech" McCain has given this campaign season: "He pledged to hold the line on taxes. He said he will cut the corporate tax rate and make the Bush tax cuts permanent. He gave a great contrast between himself and Hillary and Obama. It was an unapologetic defense of the war, defense of low taxes, defense of life, defense of liberty, and defense of the American way as we know it.

"John McCain is the nominee and he sounded both Presidential and conservative. Conservatives may not have gotten the whole loaf of bread they wanted, but they know where McCain stands, and he's willing to fight on grounds the Democrats would abdicate to the socialists within and terrorists without."

Romney Leaves Presidential Race

Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney told conservatives gathered in Washington for the CPAC convention that he will suspend his presidential campaign."I must now stand aside, for our party and our country," Romney said.

"If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror," Romney said, saying that a Democratic president would leave Iraq too soon and this would be like a surrender to terror.

"This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose. My family, my friends and our supporters... many of you right here in this room... have given a great deal to get me where I have a shot at becoming President. If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America ..."

Romney's withdrawal means that Sen. John McCain's path to the nomination is effectively a sure thing, the AP reports. While former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckebee and Texas Rep. Ron Paul remain in the race, Huckabee has shown limited national appeal and Paul has yet to win a caucus or primary.

Song Set to Obama Speech Catches Fire on Web

Yes we can.

Most people recognize it as a phrase that Sen. Barack Obama uses as a theme for his presidential campaign. Now it's also a full-fledged song and video.

The Boston Globe reports that Will.I.Am, a member of the Black-Eyed Peas (long know as a socially conscious rap group) was inspired by a speech that Obama gave in Nashua, New Hampshire the night of the state primary. So he set it to music, and had 36 different artists appear on it (and basketball legend Kareem Abdul Jabbar for good measure too).

"The split-screen video features clips of the candidate speaking alongside shots of R&B singer John Legend, actress Scarlett Johansson, rapper Common, jazz pianist Herbie Hancock, actor-singer Nick Cannon, rocker Ed Kowalczyk, and others echoing Obama's spoken words in song. Will.i.am set the song's tempo to synch up with the New Hampshire audience, which supplies the song's rhythm with chants of 'We want change, we want change!' "

It's an understatement to say that it's proven to be popular - it's been viewed 10 million times on YouTube since it was posted online this past weekend. And it's a dramatic piece of evidence that it's not your father's or mother's (or even an older sybling's for that matter) presidential election any more. The Internet and social networking sites are dramatically altering the way candidates and their supporters are reaching out to the public - particularly young people.

As Jon Hart of Bulls-Eye Marketing tells the Globe: "I believe this election is going to be heavily influenced by new media, especially among younger demographics ... Many young people are less issue-oriented than icon-oriented, and no doubt this stuff has an impact on impressionable people. I don't think it will influence political views, but it may very well bring folks to the polls that normally wouldn't have gone to the polls."

Clinton Campaign Struggling After Feb. 5

There are worrisome signs coming from the Clinton campaign.

Sen. Hillary Clinton at her Virginia campaign headquarters

Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton speaks during a news conference at her national campaign headquarters Wednesday, in Arlington, Virginia.

Jonathan Ernst/Getty Images

As Mara Laisson reports today on Morning Edition, Sen. Clinton lent her campaign $5 million of her own money. While she raised more than $100 million last year, she generated less than half of what Sen. Barack Obama did in January. (The Obama campaign also said it raised $6 million the day after Super Tuesday - and all of it online.) Meanwhile, some of her top aides have agreed to continue working for the campaign without salary - similar to what happened in the Giuliani campaign in early January.

She's also trying to get Obama to debate her again, normally a tactic employed by someone who is trailing an opponent. And Sen. Clinton and her campaign team are claiming the title of underdog.

For instance, Clinton paints her primary victory in Massachusetts on Super Tuesday as an upset. She points out that Obama had the backing of Sen. John Kerry, Sen. Ted Kennedy and Gov. Deval Patrick, and yet she still won. The only question about that scenario is that Clinton once had as much as a 37-point lead in January according to one poll. (While Obama made up a lot of ground in the final week, one poll still had her with as much as a 10-point lead.)

As Mara points out, it all has a certain Alice Through the Looking Glass quality to it.

But Barack Obama is loathe to give up HIS underdog label, noting at his press conference Wednesday that Sen. Clinton thought she would deliver the knock-out blow on Feb. 5, but he battled her to a delegate and popular vote draw right across the country, while winning more states.

One thing for sure - after all the excitement of Super Tuesday, the presidential race will now slow down with only a few primaries a week, and eat up a lot more money.

Happy Birthday Mama McCain

Roberta McCain, mother of presidential hopeful John McCain, waves to the crowd as she celebrates McCain's results on Super Tuesday in Phoenix, Arizona.

DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images

John McCain's mother Roberta turns 96 today. The remarkably spry elder McCain has been traveling with her son's campaign as a living, breathing rebuttal to anyone who thinks the 71-year old Senator is too old for the White House.

John McCain likes to tell the story of how his mother traveled to France last year for a driving vacation, only to be told she was too old to rent a car. Undeterred, Roberta McCain went out and bought a car. (Not hard to see where the Senator gets his anything-is-possible attitude. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.)

-- Scott Horsley

February 6, 2008

Voting Problems in L.A. County

Voting activists are busy crunching numbers today after balloting problems were reported yesterday in California, especially in Los Angeles County. It turns out that nine percent of the ballots cast in L.A. County showed no vote for president.

That's an unusually high number, and activists think it had something to do with confusion over ballots cast by independent or nonpartisan voters. Those individuals were allowed to cast ballots in the Democratic primary, but had to fill in a circle at the top of their ballots indicating that they were voting Democratic for their choices to count. A lot of voters complained they were confused and missed that step.

Late yesterday, the county's registrar-recorder Dean Logan issued a statement defending the procedure, noting that it was not new and had been explained in sample ballot booklets sent to voters. Still, Logan said his office would review the ballots to see if there was any widespread voter disenfranchisement. He said his office would try to determine if the problem had an impact on the outcome of the Democratic presidential contest. If it did, he said, his office would seek to count those ballots where the voter's intent could be determined.

Sen. Hillary Clinton beat Sen. Barack Obama in L.A. County. But, if you add all of the ballots showing no presidential choice -- 164,797 -- to Obama's total, he would be ahead by about 2,000 votes. Of course, that involves a huge assumption. It assumes that everyone whose ballot showed no presidential choice had wanted to vote in the Democratic presidential contest and that their choice was Obama.

--- Pam Fessler

McCain Goes to Washington to See the Conservatives

Considering political candidates frequently use Biblical metaphors to explain their actions during campaigns (Mike Huckabee practically retold David and Goliath during his speech on Super Tuesday), it's appropriate to think of Daniel going into the lion's den to describe Sen. John McCain's visit to the CPAC convention in Washington this week.

CPAC's yearly convention is the most important gathering of conservative Republicans for a presidential candidate to attend. John McCain's problem is that a lot of conservatives don't like him .... at all. So when he goes to the podium to give his speech Thursday at 3 p.m. in Washington's Omni Shoreham Hotel, it could be one of the most important speeches of his career. While he freely admits that there are some conservative hardliners, like Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh, that he will never win over, he knows he needs to generate enough support among other conservatives to help him win the nomination.

Matt Lewis writes at townhall.com that just as Mitt Romney had to give a "Mormon" speech, McCain needs to give a "conservative" speech.

The CPAC speech will tell us a lot about McCain.
If it's a stump speech about him being a "foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution," we will know that is perfunctory pablum and that he didn't care enough to write something new. In that case, it is likely to assume he didn't want to give the speech, was probably talked into it by his staff, and isn't willing to humble himself by really trying.

But if McCain looks us in the eye, acknowledge problems, but promises ... promises ... he will make conservatives proud on issues ranging from Life, to Judges, to taxes. Then, he has a chance.

Hot Air notes that last year McCain was the only declared GOP presidential candidate not to attend CPAC, and this has left lingering bad feelings. But in a conversation with National Review Online's Kathyrn Jean Lopez, Republican strategist Mary Matalin offers a "trust but verify" strategy for McCain tomorrow.

Did Desire for Change or Making a Difference Drive Turnout?

Here's an e-mail from reader Rachelle Ankney:

Thanks NPR for succinct factual news, as always. I'd like to see news blogs on two things: (1) I am a relatively young (36) voter who voted for Clinton, along with a number of friends. Much of the election news coverage focuses on dividing the country in to little "camps" and telling us how we'll vote. As a Clinton supporter, I hear myself placed in the "geezer" camp, the "over 40" camp, and so forth. Is this segregation merely an unfortunate side effect of the need to predict?
(2) I'm a radio listener, but yesterday I watched more television than I usually do all year. Pundits were amazed at the "unprecedented" voter turnouts yesterday, citing the country's readiness for change as the single factor. I didn't hear any comments on the fact that holding primaries and caucuses earlier probably just made a lot more people feel as if their vote counted. It was the first time in my life that my primary vote counted for anything at all (in a presidential race).

Of course, pundits rarely take the prosaic explanation, but it seems obvious to me that there would be record turnout this year ...

Good questions. I think it is true, pundits and reporters tend to categorize voters as a way to unlock elections.

And reports this morning say the turnout, particularly in the Democratic primaries, was exceptionally high.

So if you voted yesterday, what drove you to the polls: the feeling of change in the air, the idea that your vote would count more than it did in the past, or a belief that citizens have a duty to vote?

McCain Wins Lion's Share of Delegates

Super Tuesday was indeed a super day for Republican Sen. John McCain. By the time the votes had been counted, McCain joked with his supporters that they would have to get use to being described as the frontrunners for the nomination, rather than always thinking of themselves as the come-back kids.

By winning all four of the big states up for grabs - New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California - McCain ensured that he would garner the lion's share of the delegates for the evening. In total, he won 51.

But while they didn't win the big prizes, former Massacusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee did well in the smaller states. Romney won many of the Western states that were holding caucuses, while Huckabee surprised a lot of people by winning five southern states. As a result, Romney won 176 delegate slots while Huckabee picked up 147. Texas Rep. Ron Paul picked up 10 delegates during the evening.

As of 8 a.m.EST this morning, and after you add all the pledged party officials and elected representatives (Republicans don't have super delegates, but do have some slots for these positions), McCain has 613 delegates, Romney 269, Huckabee 190 and Paul 14.

That means McCain needs another 578 delegates to win the nomination. So while it's appropriate to give McCain the frontrunner label, this race is also far from over.

After Super Tuesday: The Democrat Delegate Count

In the state-by-state battle between Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama that shaped up over the course of the evening Tuesday, many readers asked the same question: what about the delegate count? Since the delegates were awarded on a district by district basis in some states, it took until this morning to get a more accurate picture. But here is what we know so far.

Super Tuesday was practically a wash between the two Democrats, with Clinton winning 584 delegates and Obama scooping up 563. While Clinton won the most delegates, it's hard not to see Obama as the winner - by taking so many smaller states like Delaware and Georgia, he blunted the impact of Clinton's win in the big states like California and New York.

After the primaries and caucuses held so far, Clinton has won slightly more delegates, 632 to 626 (not counting Florida and Michigan).

But add in those super delegates we talked about in the blog the other day (party and elected officials) and her total grows larger. In the end, when you tally all the delegates won and pledged (at least as of reports at 8 a.m. this morning - and this might change over the day), Clinton has 845 delegates so far while Obama has 765.

It's still a long way to the 2025 needed to win the nomination.

Where to Now?

From the 24 states that held contests on Super Tuesday, the traveling presidential caravan and tent show will next set up camp for contests Saturday in Louisiana (Is it wise to hold a primary on the heels of Mardi Gras?), Washington, Kansas (Republicans only) and Nebraska (just Democrats).

From there, the contests include what we in the Mid-Atlantic are calling the Potomac primary on Tuesday, when voters in Maryland, Virginia and here in Washington, D.C., will cast their votes. If the race hasn't sorted itself out by the end of the month, it's on to Ohio and Texas in March. Both are big plums for whomever wins them, and the nomination picture for both parties is likely to look a lot clearer then.

-- Brian Naylor

Note: Please continue to post your comments throughout the night. We will post anything we haven't gotten to during business hours on Wednesday.

A Geographical Look at the Super Tuesday Results

Let's take a look at the big picture now. Thanks to NPR's cool, interactive, multi-colored map, one can reach a few conclusions about how this race is shaping up for Republicans and Democrats.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee isn't going away. He hasn't won a state north of the Mason-Dixon Line, e