2008 Headline: Utah Goes for Obama?!?!
Something very, very strange is happening in Utah. And I don't mean polygamy or the liquor laws.
Some of Utah's smartest political prognosticators say Mitt Romney's exit from the Republican presidential campaign could have many Utahns, including Mormon Republicans, crossing the political no-man's land and voting for Democrat Barack Obama in November.
This is no joke. And there's polling that backs up what seems like an unlikely scenario.
It seems unlikely because Utah is often described as the most Republican state in the nation. There are so few Democrats in the state Senate that the Senate Democratic Caucus could meet in a mini-van.
Utah is also 60% Mormon and a Mormon apostle once told the faithful it's not possible to be a good Mormon AND a Democrat. It wasn't until 1978 that Mormon leaders dispensed with a belief that kept African-American males out of the Mormon priesthood, something every other worthy Mormon male easily attained.
So, it's hard to imagine Democrat and African-American Barack Obama with "winner" beside his name when Utah reports its presidential vote in November. But here's how it could happen:
"A significant number of Republicans in Utah, who have given their all to the Republican party in the belief that the party would advance their political and religious beliefs, will now feel rejected," says Tim Chambless, a political scientist at the University of Utah.
These Mormon Republicans, Chambless says, will feel "unfairly denied of a place on the national Republican ticket because of Mitt Romney's (Mormon) faith rather than his positions on issues."
"They thought their time had come with Mitt Romney. Then came this religion issue."
Chambless believes former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee will be blamed for Romney's exit. Huckabee fed evangelical suspicion of Mormons, including the belief of many evangelicals that Mormons are not Christians.
John McCain is viewed as Huckabee's partner. McCain attacked Romney vigorously but went easy on Huckabee. McCain even yielded his state Republican convention support in West Virginia so that Huckabee would beat Romney there.
"There's some sense they were working together," says Quin Monson, assistant director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy (CSED) at Brigham Young University. "There's strong distaste for Huckabee here (in Utah). There's some distaste for McCain."
There's also strong distaste in Utah for Hillary Clinton. That's due to "the way the White House was run" under Bill Clinton, Monson says, "and the Monica Lewinsky thing. The whole bit."
Monson has recent polling data that illustrates the November possibilities. Four hundred Utahns who had responded to statewide CSED exit polls in the past, were contacted again and asked to answer an internet questionnaire.They were given possible opponents in the November election, including:
Clinton vs McCain: McCain wins by a landslide with 71%
Obama vs McCain: McCain wins 55% to 45%, a surprisingly slim margin in GOP Utah
Clinton vs Huckabee: Huckabee wins convincingly 59% to 41%
Obama vs Huckabee: Obama wins 58% to 42%
Put McCain and Huckabee on the same ticket and put them against Obama and, well, it's plausible that Obama would win.
There are two reasons Obama could be so strong in Utah. First, he appeals to younger voters and Utah is the youngest state in the nation. The median age is just 28 and no other state comes close. And second, Obama's the underdog in the presidential race. Mormons also tend to view themselves as underdogs, as an oppressed people.
"The bottom line is that these folks who see themselves as underdogs," says Chambless of the University of Utah, "And who have questions about McCain and Huckabee, can look at the Democratic party and see someone who is also an underdog."
Chambless thinks moderate and conservative Republicans in Utah, who are also members of the Mormon faith, will look at Romney's departure from the race and say "I'm going to make a statement and go for the underdog."
BYU's Quin Monson believes that some Mormon Republicans would stay home election day rather than vote for McCain or Huckabee. That would help Obama if he was the Democratic nominee.
Mitt Romney is known as a turnaround artist for struggling businesses. It's possible now that he'll inadvertently become a turnaround artist in Utah politics.
-- Howard Berkes
7:53 PM ET | 02- 7-2008 | permalink
