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Could Super Delegates Decide Democratic Race?

As Super Tuesday grows closer, it looks more and more like the outcome from the 22 states that hold Democratic primaries on Tuesday won't decide the winner. Since there are no Democratic winner take-all contests, it means that a candidate could win a state by a point or two, and only win a delegate or two more than their rival. (We've already had that situation in Nevada, where Hillary Clinton was the preferred candidate of a larger number of people, but it looks like Barack Obama may have won one more delegate than she did.)

With the delegate-rich state like California now looking like a real contest rather than a blow-out for Clinton, it probably means no one will win enough delegates tomorrow to capture the nomination.

And that means it's time to start thinking about "super delegates."

There are 842 delegates who get a free pass to the convention - governors, members of Congress and the Senate, chairs of the state's Democratic parties, former presidents and leading members of the party. Party chairman Howard Dean can also appoint a number of people to be delegates. All in all, those 842 delegates comprise about 40 percent of the total number needed to win the nomination.

The system was put into place after the 1972 election. In the early 70s, in order to move away from the power wielded by party bosses like the late Chicago Mayor Richard Daley (the father of the current mayor or Chicago), the party opened up more delegate slots to women and ethic minorities. But after Sen. George McGovern was trounced in the '72 election by Richard Nixon, the party wanted to restore some "stability" without going back to the days of party bosses. So party officials created the super delegate system as a "safety valve" to ensure the party's nominee didn't stray too far from the rest of the party.

The website 2008 Democratic Convention Watch has create a list of super delegates who have already pledged to support a particular candidate, as well as a list of those who remain uncommitted.

 

Comments

This election could be the first time that the super delegates end up fixing the nomination in the democratic party, much like a party leader is elected in a prime ministerial government in UK, Australia or India. However I do think either Obama or Clinton might break through to the top soon enough. The primary season is just gettin started.

Sent by Siva | 3:13 PM ET | 02-04-2008

Talk about fixing an election! I guess the Clintons really can call in those favors. Super delegates is a shameful practice, reminiscent of the old mob boss days.

Democrats better watch out if Obama has the popular vote and Clinton wins. I for one, just won't go to the polls.

Sent by Susan Leigh | 5:05 PM ET | 02-09-2008

I've been impressed by the rectitude of the Super Delegates that I've heard from so far. I expect them to solidify the front-runner at the end of the campaign season rather than change the outcome.

If neither candidate is a clear winner, then I expect them to work out a solution so that the convention begins with a united party.

Sent by Roger D-W | 9:24 PM ET | 02-09-2008

I am not clear on this, is it okay to contact Super Delegates and ask them to change their vote or to make arguments in favor of a particular candidate if they are uncommitted?

Sent by Lisa Arnold | 2:55 PM ET | 02-10-2008

Yes, Lisa, I believe that any candidate can continue to as a super delegate to change their mind, if they have committed to another delegate. The superdelegate are not pledged to anyone - they can change their mind up to the last minute.

Tom Regan
Newsblog

Sent by Tom Regan | 12:13 PM ET | 02-11-2008

If this continues, Hillary Clinton will be remembered as "The Great Unifier" (by the Republicans)!

Sent by Harold | 12:38 PM ET | 02-11-2008

What ever happen to the people vote for their favorite. We don't need delegates, superdelegates let the people chose. My vote is a waste of time if some delegates I never heard of make the final decision.

Sent by Betty | 5:28 AM ET | 02-15-2008

If somehow we could spread the story that Britney Spears is a superdelegate, we might have an exciting story going here.

The Democratic Party has been selecting it's nominess in back rooms since the very birth of the party itself. You are simply just becoming aware of age old political reality.

fred camorra call

Sent by fred camorra call | 10:49 AM ET | 02-15-2008

Could someone please explain to me what's ment by "Clear winner" and what is ment by "rounds"of voting. And are the Superdelegates voting in the first round with the peoples delegates or do they get called in for a later round if theirs no "clear winner". Also I hear that the peoples delegates only have to represent the people during the first round and then its basiclly a free forall where all delegates can vote for who ever they want and the public be damned. Could someone please clarify these things for me. Thanks

Sent by Lily | 2:19 AM ET | 02-18-2008

Sent by Lily: Could someone please clarify these things for me. Thanks

Lily, it is not that complicated. You, the voter, do not directly vote for the President. You vote for a representative from your state who will vote for the president.

That is, if you voted in the elections for your state representatives. A good many people don't vote in their local and state elections. Hence, they diminished their say in who will be their president.

Traditionally, both the Republican and
the Democratic national conventions will be televised. You will see and hear representatives say such statements as, "We the people of the great state of Tennessee cast our vote for...", or, "We the people of the great state of Oregon cast our vote for....." And so on and so forth throughout the convention.

Candidates and political leaders and future political leaders will make speeches. Sometimes the speeches are sounding boards for future presidential candidates. Ronald Reagan made such a resounding speech at the 1976 Republican convention that pundits soon afterwards took to predicting that Reagan would one day be president.

Sometimes events are not orderly at conventions, as proven by what happened at the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago. A then up and coming journalist named Dan Rather was roundly jostled and pushed around (in front of the television cameras) on the floor of the Democratic Convention. Outside the convention hall, antiwar protestors were tear gassed while fighting with the Chicago police. Republican Richard Nixon won that election over Democrat Hubert Humphrey during the height of the Vietnam War controversy.

At the 1984 Republican convention in San Diego, Jean Kirkpatrick made this statement, "The United States cannot remain an open, democratic society if we are left alone - a garrison state in a hostile world." That was a reminder for a strong military defense worldwide. The delegates enthusiastically re-elected Ronald Reagan as their nominee at the San Diego convention.

Theoretically, the majority of Democratic delegates can name either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton as their nominee. Most fully expect the Democratic delegates to chose Hillary Clinton. The Clinton experience far exceeds Barack Obama's experience within the DNC political arena.

Theoretically, the majority of Republican delegates could name Ron Paul or Mitt Romney as their nominee. Though that is very unlikely to happen. Except maybe in the event of a Second Coming of Rod Serling and the Twilight Zone. Most expect the Republican delegates to name John McCain as their nominee.

After that, John McCain and Hillary Clinton will are the most likely candidates to vie for the presidency via counting the electoral votes from each of the fifty states.

Theoretically, after the election, the electoral college can name the loser of the electoral votes as our next president. Which probably won't happen. All the same, the president is not elected by popular vote of the people.

In a Tom Clancy/sci-fi novel, in a time of World War Three or some such catastrophe, theoretically the electoral college could elect the candidate who had the fewest electoral votes accrued.

Those delegates who cast their votes opposite of their pledge are called 'Faithless Electors.' For example, in 1948, Tennessee elector Preston Parks was supposed to cast his vote for Harry Truman. Instead, Parks cast his vote for Strom Thurmond. Many say that change of heart almost cost Truman the election against Dewey.

In 1960, Nixon elector Henry Erwin of Oklahoma instead cast his vote for Virginian Harry Byrd. As close as the race was between Nixon and JFK, one wonders how the 'Faithless Elector' Henry Erwin's decision affected the outcome.

If no candidate receives a clear majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives choses the president, with each state having one vote. This happened twice in our history.

The procedure for electing the president is spelled out in Article 2 of the Constitution. To change the system requires a constitutional amendment backed by 2/3 majority vote of both houses of congress.

Ron Paul defends the electoral college system of electing our president.

fred camorra call

Sent by fred camorra call | 9:24 AM ET | 02-18-2008

I'll vote McCain before I vote Clinton, and that is a hard thing to do. Obama has the popular vote, do we want to remember another Al Gore type loss? Is there any one who isn't still regretting that debacle? Obama is the popular choice, we should be past this type of situation in the 21st century? Shouldn't we?

Sent by Julia Lynne | 5:24 PM ET | 03-12-2008

Popular vote vs. delegates ...

Obama and his supporters keep saying that the democratic nominee should be the one who gets the most popular votes ... not super delegates. But, in addition to Obama accepting Richardson???s delegate vote, even though Hillary won the popular vote in New Mexico ... it???s apparent that if Obama???s 20 year association with racist Wright (and indirect association with Farrakan) had been known a year ago by the public ... Obama would not have gained a lead in the popular vote ... in fact, he probably wouldn???t even still be in the race at all!

Sent by Howard | 11:59 AM ET | 03-23-2008



   
   
   
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Tom Regan

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