NPR: The NPR News Blog

March 31, 2008

Get My Vote: Political Belief Beyond Party Lines

We've been checking out some of the new videos at NPR's Get My Vote project and folks are leaving some thoughtful contributions

Here's Matt Barnes of Portland, Maine on political beliefs beyond party affiliation:

Patricia Rich of Boise, Idaho talks about her first memories of politics when she was eleven, the death of JFK and why she thinks it takes a certain personality type to be excited about politics:

And finally, a Canadian student in the U.S. talks about why Americans have to think not only about their responsibility to their country when they vote but also about their responsibility to the world because of the U.S.' special status as the world's only superpower.

Obama and Oil Money: Not As Simple As It Looks

In a recent ad that aired in Pennsylvania, Sen. Barack Obama made the following claim:

"Since the gas lines of the '70's, Democrats and Republicans have talked about energy independence, but nothing's changed except now Exxon's making $40 billion a year, and we're paying $3.50 for gas. ... I don't take money from oil companies or Washington lobbyists, and I won't let them block change anymore. They'll pay a penalty on windfall profits. We'll invest in alternative energy, create jobs and free ourselves from foreign oil."

Here's the ad:

The Clinton campaign accused Obama of "false advertising" for the ad. "Senator Obama says he doesn't take campaign contributions from oil companies but the reality is that Exxon, Shell, and others are among his donors," Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said.

Well, not exactly Phil. Here what an Associated Press Fact Check has to say on the issue. It is true, Obama does not take money from oil companies. No one does - it's illegal. It's sort of like Obama saying "I don't rob banks to finance my campaign" - that would be illegal too. But he also does not take money from oil company political action committees (PACs) or lobbyists.

But boy, he sure does take money from people who work for oil companies. A lot of money. Not as much, however, as Clinton and Sen. John McCain do.

"As of Feb. 29, Obama's presidential campaign had received nearly $214,000 from oil and gas industry employees and their families, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Clinton had received nearly $307,000 from industry workers and their families and Republican Sen. John McCain, the likely GOP presidential nominee, received nearly $394,000, according to the center's totals."

And two of Obama's fundraisers are oil company executives: Robert Cavnar, the chairman and chief executive of Houston-based Mission Resources Corp., and George Kaiser, the president and CEO of Tulsa-based Kaiser-Francis Oil Co.

So this is one of those cases when the candidate is telling the truth but basically ignoring the deeper issue that people really want to know about: could you be influenced by oil company money in some way?

That is a question as yet unanswered.

Arizona Considers Guest Worker Program

Some southwestern states, tired of waiting for Washington to do something about fixing the immigration system, have decided to take matters into their own hands.

The Christian Science Monitor reports that the Arizona state legislature is considering its own guest worker program which it would administer rather than the federal government.

"The Arizona legislature is expected on Monday to fast track bills to create a temporary worker program in the state. Even with the backing of top lawmakers, the bills face big hurdles, including sign-off from the feds. But if approved, they would streamline the process for Arizona employers to hire temporary workers from Mexico -- and would serve as a model for national reform, say supporters."

The Arizona program would allow an unlimited number of workers to legally enter the U.S. to work temporarily in Arizona for up to two years if an employer can prove a shortage of labor. Under the current federal program a guest worker can only stay for 10 months. Meanwhile The Associated Press reported recently that Colorado is looking at similar measures for its chili, watermelon and tomato crops.

Critics -- and there are many of them -- say the program won't work because it will stimulate, not stop, illegal immigration. "Once migratory movements start, they become self-perpetuating," says Luis Plascencia, an expert on Mexican migration and guest worker programs at Arizona State University in Tempe.

The current presidential candidates have differing positions on guest worker programs. Hillary Clinton is opposed to them because she thinks they will depress wages for Americans. Barack Obama supports a guest-worker program with a database of workers, arguing it will improve wages and conditions for all workers. John McCain had originally wanted a guest-worker program under his failed immigration reform bill. But during CNN's January 30 Republican presidential debate McCain said he would not support his own program if it now came to a vote on the Senate floor. As a senator from Arizona, it will be interesting to see where he stands on his state legislature's idea.

So tell us what you think. Are state guest worker programs the way to deal with illegal immigration? Or is it just another way to sneak into the U.S.? If so, how do we help employers who say their crops are "rotting in the fields" for lack of workers to pick them?

PolitiFact: Tax Chain E-Mail is Not Correct

One of the fastest ways to spread political information ... or disinformation ... these days is to stick it in an e-mail and spam it to as many people as you can in the hope that they will spam it to all their friends and so on. For instance, take the false message sent to many people that Barack Obama is secretly a Muslim "bend on destroying the United States." The Obama campaign has had to fight that chain e-mail for months.

PolitiFact, a project of the St. Petersburg Times and Congressional Quarterly, is one of the many good Web sites that now exists to check candidate statements and media reports about them for truthfulness. One of the services that PolitiFact provides is The Chain E-mail Files, which checks out the veracity of the chain e-mails that float around the Internet.

Recently the site looked at an e-mail that said Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama want to "raise capital gains taxes and dividends taxes, as well as raise tax rates for all income levels" while John McCain wants to make all of President Bush's tax cuts permanent. So PolitiFact checked out the e-mail's claims.

"Clinton has said the tax cuts should stay in place for people making less than $250,000, while Obama has said the tax cuts should be repealed for the top 1 percent. (According to the Congressional Budget Office, the top 1 percent of taxpayers in 2005 were those with an average pretax income of $1.6-million. The minimum income for the top 1 percent is $307,500.) So the e-mail is wrong about what Clinton and Obama have actually proposed. It's correct that McCain supports making the Bush tax cuts permanent for all income levels....

"We find this chain e-mail gets facts both large and small wrong. It doesn't list the higher tax brackets that actually would go up if Clinton or Obama implemented their plans, and it accuses them of wanting to raise rates on lower incomes that they've said should stay the same. So we rate the chain e-mail's claim False."

So the next time you get a chain e-mail that makes a claim that you're not too sure about, check out the PolitiFact site. It'll make you a better informed voter.

Obama Calls for Holiday to Mark Cesar Chavez

Sen. Barack Obama has called for a national holiday to mark the birthday of Mexican-American labor activist and leader of the United Farm Workers, Cesar Chavez.

"Today is Cesar Chavez's birthday, and his life and legacy are important for us all to remember. From his beginnings as a farmworker picking lettuce and beets in the American Southwest, Cesar Chavez rose to help found the United Farm Workers, providing hundreds of thousands of people with better working conditions and the chance to live a better life. He proved what I have long believed -- that together, ordinary people can do extraordinary things. When some said he could not organize farmworkers and take on the growers, he said, 'Si Se Puede' - 'Yes We Can.' It's a philosophy of hope and aspiration that inspires us today."

The call for a holiday can be seen as a direct appeal to Latino voters in the Democratic Party who have tended to support Sen. Hillary Clinton.

California currently observes Chavez' birthday, March 31, as a state holiday. Texas also recognizes the day, and it is an optional holiday in Arizona and Colorado.

Supreme Court Won't Get Invovled In Jefferson Case

The Supreme Court today decided to pass on a U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruling that curtailed the power of the FBI to search congressional offices. The case arises out of the 2006 FBI search of the House offices of Louisiana Democratic Rep. William Jefferson (he of the "cold hard cash" jokes - at one point he stored thousands of dollars in a refrigerator).

Jefferson is fighting federal corruption charges that he solicited more than $500,000 in bribes for business deals in Africa. He argued that when the FBI raided his offices, they took materials they had no right to have. He said many of the documents taken by the feds were protected by the Speech and Debate Clause, "which protects elected officials from being questioned by the president, a prosecutor or a plaintiff in a lawsuit about their legislative work." The FBI's response was that it had legally obtained a search warrant to conduct the raid.

The question for the Supreme Court was did the clause also apply to searches. The Supreme Court ended up agreeing with the appeals court's ruling that some of the documents taken were indeed subject to the Speech and Debate Clause. Jefferson, they said, should have had the right to look over the documents before they were removed.

As The Swamp notes: "The court's ruling means that the Speech and Debate clause applies to searches by federal agents. The Justice Department complained that the decision would force it to give members of Congress advance notice before a raid is conducted, but the opinion doesn't say that. It simply requires that the member be given some opportunity to review and set aside materials related to the legislative process."

The ruling doesn't mean that Jefferson will get all his personal papers and notes back. The case is now being sent back to a lower court judge who will determine which papers fit the "legislative materials" description and must be returned to Jefferson.

McCain Talks about His Family During Tour

As Sen. John McCain continues his fight for media attention, he begins his "Service to America" tour today with a speech in Meridian, Mississippi. In the speech he'll talk about his family's long history of service to the country, including a distant ancestor who served on George Washington's staff, according to notes distributed by McCain's communications people.

"I am the son and grandson of admirals. My grandfather was an aviator; my father a submariner. They were my first heroes, and their respect for me has been one of the most lasting ambitions of my life. They gave their lives to their country, and taught me lessons about honor, courage, duty, perseverance and leadership that I didn't fully grasp until later in life, but remembered when I needed them most. I have been an imperfect servant of my country for many years. But I am their son, and they showed me how to love my country, and that has made all the difference for me, my friends, all the difference in the world."

He'll also release a Web-only ad that will appear on news and information sites that continues the focus on his family's service to the country.

But as NPR's Cokie Roberts noted during her conversation with Renee Montagne on Morning Edition, McCain still has a lot of work to do with the Republican base and they might be put off by this general election strategy. Roberts also noted that the lack of media attention means McCain is having trouble raising money. The New York Times reports McCain hasn't been able to attract many of the big donors who gave to the Bush campaign over the past two election cycles.

Here's one reason why McCain wants to talk about his family - The Associated Press reports it's one of the reasons that he's doing so well in the polls.

MN Senator, NC House Members to Back Obama

Sen. Barack Obama picks up another importance endorsement, and another superdelegate, today when Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar will announce her support during a conference call with reporters.

In a statement provided to The Associated Press, Klobuchar said Obama "has inspired an enthusiasm and idealism that we have not seen in this country in a long time."

Klobuchar, a freshman Democrat, said Obama speaks "with a different voice, bringing a new perspective and inspiring a real excitement from the American people." She compared him to the late Hubert Humphrey, who served as a senator from Minnesota and as vice president.

Obama carried Minnesota by a wide margin over rival Sen. Hillary Clinton. The Obama campaign says that Klobuchar is the 64th superdelegate to endorse him since the Feb. 5th Super Tuesday contests. Clinton has gotten nine since that date.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports that North Carolina's seven Democratic House members are preparing to endorse Obama as a group, Just one has done so already.

The Journal also reports that both Sen. Klobuchar and Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey -- who endorsed Obama last week -- had originally planned to remain neutral, but "decided to weigh in as the Democrats' campaign became more negative and Sen. McCain was free to exploit the confusion looking to the November election."

The Clinton camp continued to reject the idea that a prolonged campaign would hurt the party. Over the weekend. Former Pres. Bill Clinton told 2000 attendees at the California State Democratic Convention to "chill out" about the process. Sen. Clinton said she planned to fight until the convention in August if need be. And even Sen. Obama said that Clinton should remain in the race as long as she wants to, calling her a "fierce, formidable opponent."

Obama Does Well in Texas Regional Conventions

Sen. Barack Obama had a good weekend in Texas. The Houston Chronicle reports that he "emerged with a majority of the state's at-large presidential nominating delegates and possibly a majority of all Texas delegates."

The actual number of delegates awarded to Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton won't be announced until the Texas state convention meets from June 5-7. But Obama appeared to be winning about 58 percent of the delegates to the state convention. The Obama camp says this gives them a 38-29 at-large delegate lead. (The Clinton camp says it's 37-30, but not all the results from Saturday's regional meetings were final.) Clinton won the popular vote primary (in which Democrats, Republicans and independents were allowed to vote) giving her a 65-61 allotted delegate lead.

When the totals from the weekend are added, Obama now has a five-delegate (or three, if there is that delegate difference) lead over all.

"We can confirm now that Barack Obama won Texas," said Obama spokesman Josh Earnest.

But the Clinton campaign says it will continue to fight for delegates until the summer convention and cut into Obama's lead. Clinton state Chairman Garry Mauro said Clinton may be able to take at least two delegates away.

"If we're in a hot race on June 6, we expect to pick up more delegates," Mauro said. "I believe at the end of the day we will run either dead even or come out ahead in the delegate count."

Meanwhile there are also 35 superdelegates from Texas. At present, 12 are for Clinton, 10 for Obama and 13 are uncommitted.

March 28, 2008

"NPS" Offers a New Way to Survey Voters

You know what it's like when you find a restaurant that you really like? Or a mechanic who does a great job .. and is cheap? Or a movie that leaves you breathless? You just want to tell everyone about it.

Well, public opinion researchers (also known as pollsters) have a term for this feeling: Net Promoter Score, or NPS. (Those of us who work on the Internet might use another word to describe it - viral ... you pass it along because you like it -- think of the number of YouTube videos your friends have sent you.)

Now NPS is being "adapted from the world of consumer research" and used "to measure voter enthusiasm and passion for a candidate." Pollsters are asking a simple question: "On a 0 to 10 scale, with 0 being "not at all likely" and 10 being "extremely likely," how likely is it that you would recommend voting for [INSERT CANDIDATE NAME] in the next election to a friend or colleague?"

As pollster Alex Landry (research director at the Republican polling firm, TargetPoint Consulting) writes at Pollster.com, "The NPS is calculated by subtracting the number of detractors (ratings of 0-6) from the number of promoters (ratings of 9 and 10). In the business world, +16 is the median score of more than 400 companies across 28 industries; CostCo has one of the highest known scores at +81.

"Studies have shown a direct and significant correlation between a business' score and company growth - specifically, a 7 point increase in overall NPS or a 2 point reduction in the percentage of detractors can each account for one percent of positive growth, thus indicating the potential electoral consequences of this measure once adapted to political polling."

Landry notes that NPS has its detractors, and it doesn't have a long history in political polling. But when it was tried in 2005-2006, it indicated that the Republicans were in more trouble than many people thought they were -- which turned out to be true.

Landry offers some interesting results for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Definitely worth a read.

Clinton Strong in PA, Obama Reclaims National Lead

Hillary Clinton continues to have a large lead in Pennsylvania, while Barack Obama appears to have opened a "statistically significant" lead nationally.

A survey by the American Research Group shows that Barack Obama has made little headway in the Keystone State, still trailing Clinton by double-digits, 51% to 39%

Some of the poll's findings: Obama leads among men 51% to 38% and Clinton leads among women 61% to 30%. Clinton leads among white voters 60% to 30% and Obama leads among African American voters 83% to 11%. Obama leads 46% to 43% among likely primary voters under 50 and Clinton leads 60% to 32% among likely primary voters 50 and older.

But the Gallup Daily Tracking poll has better news for Obama. It shows him with an eight-point lead over Clinton, 50% to 42%.

"Obama's current 8-point advantage ties his largest lead of the Gallup Poll Daily tracking program, along with a 50% to 42% showing in Feb. 28-March 1 polling. Obama clearly has weathered the Wright storm, while the dark clouds have shifted to Clinton over whether she has exaggerated her foreign policy credentials. This week she has had to defend her repeated claim that she came under sniper fire while visiting Bosnia as first lady, which news video clearly disputed.

"Many Democrats are concerned that the ongoing nomination campaign -- which has grown increasingly contentious in recent weeks -- will hurt the party in the general election. Right now, the races remain close, but Republican John McCain has an edge over both Clinton and Obama in registered voters' general election preferences. In the new Gallup Poll Daily tracking update, McCain has a statistically significant 4-point lead over Clinton (48% to 44%) and a smaller 2-point advantage over Obama (46% to 44%)."

Sen. Patrick Leahy Calls on Clinton to Drop Out

Going where no senior Democratic politician has gone before, Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy has called on Sen. Hillary Clinton to drop of the Democratic presidential race.

"There is no way that Sen. Clinton is going to win enough delegates to get the nomination," Leahy, an Obama supporter, said in an interview with Vermont Public Radio this morning. "She ought to withdraw, and she ought to be backing Sen. Obama."

The Los Angeles Times reports that Leahy also said that Republican John McCain "has been making one gaffe after another [and] is getting a free ride," Leahy said the sniping between Democrats hurts them more than anything the Arizona senator has thrown their way.

But the Clinton campaign, in an e-mail sent out to supporters, said it noted a pattern in the calls for her to drop out.

"Every time our campaign demonstrates its strength and resilience, people start to suggest we should end our pursuit of the Democratic nomination," said the note, which made no mention of Leahy. "Those anxious to force us to the sidelines aren't doing it because they think we're going to lose the upcoming primaries. The fact is, they're reading the same polls we are, and they know we are in a position to win."

Dan Balz at the Washington Post reports that Leahy's comment may just be the "sound of one hand clapping, an observation by a politician given to speak his mind but not necessarily something that opens up a torrent of supporting commentary from others in the party. That is obviously Clinton's biggest worry and her campaign will be waiting nervously to see what happens next."

Report: Giuliani Weighing Run for Gov. in "Special" Election

Just because they didn't like him in Florida, doesn't mean Rudy is giving up on politics.

The New York Post reports today that former New York Mayor and one-time Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani would consider a run for New York governor if the current governor, David Paterson was forced to resign.

Paterson, of course, just became governor himself (after the sudden resignation of Eliot Spitzer), but spent most of his first two weeks in office detailing affairs that both he and his wife had during a "troubled period" in their marriage. Paterson also admitted that he had abused drugs decades ago. Questions have also been raised about the possible misuse of campaign funds.

If Paterson was forced out of office, then a special election would have to be held in August. A top adviser to the former mayor said he would consider a run for the office if such a series of events was to take place.

"It appears, however, that those disclosures have raised little outrage, either from the public or his colleagues in Albany," adds the Post. "If anything, coming on the heels of Eliot Spitzer's sex-scandal resignation, Paterson's candor has prompted questions among Albany insiders as to whether he may face further troubles. He added this week that he was done talking about his personal life."

So we'll just have to wait and see what happens over the next few months.

U. of Chicago Says Obama Was Considered a Professor

Sen. Barack Obama has been accused, particularly by the Clinton camp, of exaggerating his resume by saying that he was a constitutional law professor at the University of Chicago law school. His detractors say he was no such thing.

Well, it looks like he has the school on his side.

The university's law school issued a press release today to clarify Obama's position. The release says he was a "senior lecturer" but that is considered at the school as being the same as a professor.

Here is the press release.

"The Law School has received many media requests about Barack Obama, especially about his status as 'Senior Lecturer.' From 1992 until his election to the U.S. Senate in 2004, Barack Obama served as a professor in the Law School. He was a Lecturer from 1992 to 1996. He was a Senior Lecturer from 1996 to 2004, during which time he taught three courses per year. Senior Lecturers are considered to be members of the Law School faculty and are regarded as professors, although not full-time or tenure-track. The title of Senior Lecturer is distinct from the title of Lecturer, which signifies adjunct status. Like Obama, each of the Law School's Senior Lecturers have high-demand careers in politics or public service, which prevent full-time teaching. Several times during his 12 years as a professor in the Law School, Obama was invited to join the faculty in a full-time tenure-track position, but he declined."

Sec. of State Rice: U.S. Has "Birth Defect" About Race

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday that the United States still has trouble dealing with race because of a national "birth defect" that denied blacks the same opportunities as whites when the country was founded.

And Rice, while declining to comment on the current presidential campaign, said it was important for Democratic presidential contender Sen. Barack Obama to give his recent speech on race "for a whole lot of reasons."

"Black Americans were a founding population," she said. "Africans and Europeans came here and founded this country together -- Europeans by choice and Africans in chains. That's not a very pretty reality of our founding."
As a result, Miss Rice told editors and reporters at The Washington Times, "descendants of slaves did not get much of a head start, and I think you continue to see some of the effects of that. That particular birth defect makes it hard for us to confront it, hard for us to talk about it, and hard for us to realize that it has continuing relevance for who we are today," she said.

On the one hand, she told the Times, race in the U.S. "continues to have effects" on public discussions and "the deepest thoughts that people hold." On the other, "enormous progress" has been made, which allowed her to become the nation's chief diplomat.

"What I would like understood as a black American is that black Americans loved and had faith in this country even when this country didn't love and have faith in them -- and that's our legacy," she said.

Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey to Back Obama

Sen. Barack Obama will pick up an important endorsement today (and another superdelegate vote) when Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will announce that he is endorsing Sen. Barack Obama's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The Philadelphia Enquirer reports that "Casey plans to endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president today in Pittsburgh, sending a message both to the state's primary voters and to undecided superdelegates who might decide the close race for the Democratic presidential nomination."

The paper said that a source in the Casey camp said that the senator was impressed with how Obama had stood up to the pressures of the campaign, including recent attacks over the racially incendiary remarks of his former pastor.

"Casey's decision was also personal, motivated in part by the enthusiasm his four daughters - Elyse, Caroline, Julia and Marena - have expressed for Obama, the source said. 'He thinks we shouldn't be deaf to the voices of the next generation.' "

Casey's endorsement puts him at odds with fellow Pennsylvania Democrats Gov. Ed Rendell and Rep. John Murtha, who are supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, another Democratic Senator and former presidential candidate, Chris Dodd of Connecticut (who supports Obama) , said it will soon be time for party leaders to "step up to the plate."

" ... we've got a contest coming up in Pennsylvania and one in North Carolina and Indiana very quickly afterwards," Dodd told the National Journal. "... We want this to be over with. We want to get behind this candidate, and we want people to pull together to win that election in November -- to build those majorities in the House and the Senate if we can, and then start doing the work on health care and Iraq and all these other issues that demand our attention."
------
Update: Here is a list of superdelegates from Pennsylvania and who they are supporting:

Congressman Jason Altmire - Uncommitted
Rena Baumgartner - Clinton
Congressman Bob Brady - Uncommitted
Carole Campbell - Obama
Congressman Chris Carney - Uncommitted
Sen. Bob Casey - Obama
Ronald Donatucci - Clinton
Congressman Mike Doyle - Uncommitted
Congressman Chakah Fattah - Obama
Bill George - Uncommitted
Marcel Groen - Uncommitted
Congressman Tim Holden - Uncommitted
Congressman Paul Kanjorski - Clinton
Leon Lynch - Obama
Sophie Masloff - Uncommitted
Gerald W. McEntee - Clinton
Jean Milko - Clinton
Congressman Patrick Murphy - Obama
Ian Murray - Clinton
Congressma Jack Murtha - Clinton
Governor Ed Rendell - Clinton
Evelyn Richardson - Clinton
T.J. Rooney - Clinton
Ruth C. Rudy - Clinton
Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz - Clinton
Congressman Joe Sestak - Clinton

This represents 26 in total. Keep in mind that there are three slots to fill which will be approved by the members of the Democratic State Committee at the regularly scheduled meeting of June 6 and 7. The deadline to provide those names to the DNC is June 7.

Former President Clinton Continues to Generate Heat

If Sen. Hillary Clinton has to run as her party's nominee in the fall, her husband just made it a little more difficult for her to win in the key state of New Hampshire. (Not to mention if she ever has to run in a Democratic primary there again.)

It's well known that New Hampshire residents take their "first primary in the nation" status pretty seriously. They believe it's the one time that a small state like New Hampshire gets a chance to be a player on the national political stage. (And the state has played no small role in rescuing the political chances of both Clintons.) So it seems they weren't too happy when Monday former President Bill Clinton, as the Manchester Union-Leader put it, "threw New Hampshire and our Democratic Secretary of State Bill Gardner under the proverbial bus."

Clinton was trying to make another argument Monday in Indiana for allowing Michigan and Florida delegates to be seated at the Democratic National Convention in August. "We let New Hampshire go out of turn," said Clinton. "They had a Democratic secretary of state. The Florida voters are totally innocent. They asked to vote on time."

"Never mind the historical record, which shows that Florida and Michigan moved up their primaries first, prompting New Hampshire to respond," said the conservative Union-Leader in an editorial. "If they stand in the way of the Clintons' march through history, the facts be damned. And, if they stand in the way of the Clintons' march through history, their friends be damned, too."

Meanwhile, President Clinton is trying a new argument about the pledged delegates - delegates from caucuses aren't as important as the ones from primaries. ABC News reports that Thursday, while speaking to his wife's Texas supporters, Clinton downplayed the importance of caucuses. (Don't tell Iowa!) "Right now, among all the primary states, believe it or not, Hillary's only 16 votes behind in pledged delegates," said Clinton, "and she's gonna wind up with the lead in the popular vote in the primary states. She's gonna wind up with the lead in the delegates [from primary states]. It's the caucuses that have been killing us."

"Bill Clinton's decision to flatly predict that his wife will finish ahead of Obama in the pledged delegates and popular vote which come strictly from primary states comes as his wife's advisers concede that the former first lady will not be able to catch Obama in the total number of pledged delegates," adds ABC.

McCain Launches First TV Ad of Fall Campaign

OK, the Democrats don't have a nominee yet, and the media are focused on their battle to the exclusion of almost everything else. It's hard for a Republican presidential nominee to get any attention. But Sen. John McCain doesn't seem to care. He's ready to campaign for president now, so he's launched the first TV ad of the "fall" campaign.

You can see it here:

Meanwhile, Time magazine "puts McCain to the ethics test" and finds that he isn't quite as pure as the driven snow.

"In some cases, McCain's intervention on causes that favored donors appeared to be exceptional. Consider the committee meeting that McCain led on June 23, 1999. The topic of the day was a proposal to require access to 911 emergency services for cellular phones. But McCain scrambled the script with just a few hours' notice. He introduced an unrelated amendment that would force the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to allow companies to own two television stations in the same market. Democrats were outraged by the move, since it violated McCain's own rule requiring Senators to give a full day's notice before introducing amendments, a practice he put in place to prevent under-the-radar legislative tampering."

On the other hand ...

" ... McCain has some surprising character witnesses. 'He has always done the right thing, as far as I know, on the legislation I have worked on with him,' says Joan Claybrook, president of the liberal group Public Citizen, an organization that disagrees with most of McCain's votes on key issues. 'He will listen to the merits and make a decision.' "

As Time notes, this complex legacy may be difficult to explain to voters in the fall. " ...McCain is now in the awkward position of hoping voters will give him the benefit of the doubt that he has denied to others."

Obama, Clinton Say Party Will Unite Behind Winner

Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama told Democrats to take a deep breath yesterday and stop worry. The two rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination told their supporters that "they may bicker daily over issues, character and innuendo" but they both believe that "Democratic voters will coalesce around a nominee and carry him or her to victory in November over Republican John McCain."

The Associated Press reports that both candidates addressed the issue after a series of polls showed that the intensity of their struggle was affecting their supporters. Many told pollsters that they would rather vote for McCain than for the other Democrat.

"Please think through this decision. It is not a wise decision," Clinton said to applause from a crowd in Fayetteville, North Carolina. "Every time we have a vigorous contest like we're having this primary election, people get intense. Senator Obama has intense support. I have intense support. It's exciting because people want to be involved. But, the differences ... pale in comparison to the differences between us and Senator McCain."

Clinton pledged to be a "team player," regardless of who won the nomination, saying she would help to make sure the party was united

Meanwhile, Obama was making a similar point during an interview on ABC's "World News."

"There are going to be some bruised feelings, whoever the nominee is. We are going to have to come together and remind ourselves that there is a heck of a lot bigger difference between either Senator Clinton or myself, and John McCain," Obama said. "I think short term, there is going to be work to do for the nominee to bring the party back together again. People feel pretty passionate about their respective candidates. I appreciate that, and I understand it."

In an interview with the AP, former vice president Al Gore also said there was no urgency to resolve the contest now. "What have we got, five months left?" he said, when asked about whether he would make an endorsement soon.

March 27, 2008

Obama Attacks Wall Street While Taking Their Money

Senator Obama's speech today outlined his differences with the other presidential candidates regarding the crisis on Wall Street. But it also highlighted the degree to which all three major candidates are involved with Wall Street.

In assigning blame for the subprime mortgage collapse, as well as for other financial woes, Obama went further than either his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, or Republican John McCain.

He spread the blame around... but largely in Washington. He said both Democrats and Republicans, quote, let the special interests put their thumbs on the economic scales.

"The future cannot be shaped by the best-connected lobbyists with the best record of raising money for campaigns. This thinking is wrong for the financial sector and it's wrong for our country."

"Obama is now the number one recipient of securities and investment money among the presidential candidates," says Sheila Krumholz, director of the Center for Responsive Politics. She says the center's analysis of campaign finance data shows that Obama has raised 6.7 million dollars from people and political action committees in the securities and investment industry.

Hillary Clinton is right behind him, at 6 point 6 million. McCain trails the Democrats, at about 3 million.

Continue reading "Obama Attacks Wall Street While Taking Their Money" »

Yet Another Poll Shows No Wright Damage to Obama

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) hasn't been hurt by the controversy over his former pastor's statements, according to a Pew Research Center poll. All Things Considered's Robert Siegel talks with Pew Director Andrew Kohut about Obama, the economy and some good news for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

"More positive for McCain, however, is that a growing proportion of Republican voters say that the GOP will solidly unite behind the Arizona senator; 64% express that view currently, up from 58% in late February. Along with this expression of increased partisan unity, the survey finds that by a considerable margin (52%-37%), independent voters say that if McCain is elected, he will take the country in a different direction rather than continuing Bush's policies."

The survey shows Obama with a solid 10-point lead over Clinton, and a 6-point lead over McCain in the fall general election.

Some Democrats Actually Ask, "What About Gore?"

You had to know that this idea would pick up a bit of steam, considering the current standoff between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama and the nasty way the campaigns are attacking each other.

Some Democrats and pundits are now asking "What about Al Gore?"

Don't panic. Gore didn't suggest the idea, and he has given no hint of any kind that he's interested in running again. But some Dems, desperate for a way out of the current impasse, are looking longingly at the former vice president, best-selling author, Academy Award recipient and Nobel Peace Prize winner.

The other day Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney, when pressed by a reporter for a way out of the Clinton-Obama drama, said yes, Gore would be one way. And now Time magazine columnist Joe Klein -- who admits that it's silly season in American presidential problems -- writes "Is Al Gore the answer?"

"Pish-tosh, you say, and you're probably right. But let's play a little. Let's say the elders of the Democratic Party decide, when the primaries end, that neither Obama nor Clinton is viable. Let's also assume -- and this may be a real stretch -- that such elders are strong and smart enough to act. All they'd have to do would be to convince a significant fraction of their superdelegate friends, maybe fewer than 100, to announce that they were taking a pass on the first ballot at the Denver convention, which would deny the 2,025 votes necessary to Obama or Clinton. What if they then approached Gore and asked him to be the nominee, for the good of the party -- and suggested that he take Obama as his running mate? Of course, Obama would have to be a party to the deal and bring his 1,900 or so delegates along."

He admits the Democratic Party would have to be "monumentally desperate" by June, but "this has been an exceptionally 'silly" year."

Gore again? Democrats, would you want him to be your nominee? Republicans, would you want to run against him again? Independents, what about you?
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Update: Gore will be on CBS's 60 Minutes this weekend talking about global warming. Here he is talking to Lesley Stahl about prominent politicans who still don't believe in global warming:

"You're talking about Dick Cheney. I think that those people are in such a tiny, tiny minority now with their point of view, they???re almost like the ones who still believe that the moon landing was staged in a movie lot in Arizona and those who believe the world is flat. ... That demeans them a little bit, but it's not that far off."

Clinton Goes After McCain on Economy, Ignores Obama

Sen. Hillary Clinton gave Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain a few jabs today on his economic plans, but ignored the fact that her rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Barack Obama, also gave a major economic speech.

"I read the speech that Senator McCain gave the other day that set forth his plan, said Clinton. "It said virtually nothing to ease the credit crisis or the housing crisis. It seems like if the phone were ringing he would just let it ring and ring.

"We've had enough of a president who didn't know enough about economics, and didn't do enough for the middle class. I don't think we can afford four more years," Clinton added.

CBS News notes that Clinton, who was speaking at Wake Forest College in North Carolina, "has avoided any direct mention of Obama, perhaps in light of news stories pointing to a potential divide in the party as a result of an already highly contentious and drawn out nomination process."

In his speech at historic Cooper Union in New York, Obama called for major changes in the way the government regulates the financial industry, and called for a second stimulus package to boost the economy.

Mitt and McCain: Rivals Reunite in Utah

John McCain trolled for money and votes in Utah today, which is sometimes described as the most nation's most Republican state. But he needed two of the state's favorite sons to make sure he got the reception the presumed Republican presidential nominee would expect.

Former rival Mitt Romney and Republican Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr., had McCain's back, or, well, his sides at least, during a fundraising appearance and news conference. Romney and Huntsman framed McCain, like bodyguards. Utah has been hostile territory for McCain.

Romney won nearly 90 percent of the Utah GOP primary vote Super Tuesday. McCain scored only 5 percent, his worst primary showing. Romney raised more than $6 million in Utah. McCain raised only about $180,000, before today's fundraiser.

Romney is Mormon as are 60 percent of Utahns. McCain's mother publicly blamed Mormons for the scandal involving Salt Lake City's bid for the 2002 Olympics. And some Utahns blame McCain, in part, for the beloved Romney's exit from the 2008 campaign.

So, McCain needs all the help he can get in Utah, despite its strong Republican roots.

"This is our candidate and he needs to be President," Romney told reporters in referring to McCain. "When it comes time to get around our nominee, we do it."

"We are united," McCain declared.

Incidentally, both Romney and Governor Huntsman are mentioned by pundits as possible running mates for McCain, who said both are qualified but wouldn't say whether either is on his short list.

All that was missing from the Republican presidential lovefest in Utah today was the singing of the chorus to a popular Mormon hymn: "All is well. All is well."

-- Howard Berkes

House Judiciary Committee Wants Siegelman to Testify

The Associated Press reports that the House Judiciary Committee has asked the Justice Department to temporarily release former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman from prison to testify before Congress in early May about possible political influence over his prosecution.

"A spokeswoman for the committee said Thursday that Siegelman, who is serving more than seven years in a Louisiana prison, would travel to Washington under guard of the U.S. Marshals Service. She said Committee Chairman John Conyers, a Michigan Democrat, wants to hear directly from Siegelman because lawmakers are having trouble getting information elsewhere, including from the Justice Department."

The Siegelman story, which has been bubbling on the Internet for several months, drew more attention after CBS's 60 Minutes did an interview with Jill Simpson, the Republican lawyer who's testified that Alabama Republicans often chattered about how the Justice Department and local U.S. attorneys would take Siegelman down. (Siegelman received an seven-year sentence on corruption charges.) 60 Minutes alleges that the prosecution case was full of holes.

Atlanta Journal-Constitution columnist Cynthia Tucker wrote earlier this month that "maybe Siegleman deserves every month of his 88-month sentence." But, she adds, "A troubling trail of evidence suggests that Karl Rove and other GOP operatives intervened to ensure that Siegelman -- who stood a good chance of winning a second term as governor of Alabama in 2006 -- would go to prison instead of back to the state Capitol."

She points out that "Dozens of former state attorneys general, Democrats and Republicans, have urged Congress to investigate the Siegelman prosecution."

But K. Whitmire of the Birmingham Weekly wrote last year that the local media view the case differently than their national counterpart. " ... I'd argue that the reason for the local media's incredulity [about the charges of a conspiracy against Siegelman] is that our memories stretch back further - to when Siegelman's administration collapsed after a steady succession of scandals, to when Siegelman's administration tried to squelch the bad press by obstructing reporters' access to public records, to when the governor's fortunes floundered because he couldn't govern as well as he could campaign."

Top Clinton Backers Threaten Speaker Pelosi

Twenty of Hillary Clinton's top fundraisers Wednesday threatened Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi that they might withdraw their funds from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee if she didn't stop pushing the idea that Democratic superdelegates "should back the candidate with the most pledged delegates" The Washington Post reports that they urged her to respect the right of those delegates to back whomever they choose at the end of the primary season.

Roll Call reports that the "donors also pointedly noted their own contributions to the DCCC. 'We have been strong supporters of the DCCC. We therefore urge you to clarify your position on super-delegates and reflect in your comments a more open view to the optional independent actions of each of the delegates at the National Convention in August.'"

The New York Daily News reports that the move "stunned" senior Democrats "particularly because at least eight of the letter's authors have not donated to the DCCC since Pelosi became speaker. '[Clinton] looks desperate,' said one. "There is no way they should have threatened to do this. It is terrible. ... I am sure Obama is raising money off of it already.' "

Pelosi did not back down from her position, however, issuing a statement late last night through her spokesman Brendan Daly.

"Speaker Pelosi is confident that superdelegates will choose between Senators Clinton or Obama -- our two strong candidates -- before the convention in August," Daly said. "That choice will be based on many considerations, including respecting the decisions of millions of Americans who have voted in primaries and participated in caucuses. The Speaker believes it would do great harm to the Democratic Party if superdelegates are perceived to overturn the will of the voters. This has been her position throughout this primary season, regardless of who was ahead at any particular point in delegates or votes."

Kids Don't Seem Interested in Leadership Roles

The idea of any boy or girl growing up to be president doesn't seem to hold that much interest to the most recent generation of young Americans.

The Washington Post reports that a new nationwide survey of girls and boys found that a majority of them have little or no interest with achieving leadership roles when they become adults, ranking "being a leader" behind other goals such as "fitting in," "making a lot of money" and "helping animals or the environment."

The study, which was commissioned by the Girl Scouts of America and released today, shows that "three-quarters of African American girls and boys and Hispanic girls surveyed already identify themselves as leaders, a much larger group than white youths, about half of whom think of themselves this way."

"The youths defined leaders as people who prize collaboration, stand up for their beliefs and values, and try to improve society. Girls in particular endorsed these approaches, although a majority of boys did, as well. Yet when asked in focus groups about leadership styles among adults, what they described was traditional top-down management."

Experts say that the survey of 2,475 girls and 1,514 boys ages 8- to 17-year olds shows "a disconnect between what they aspire to and what is."

"The millennial generation has ambivalent, even negative, feelings about formal leadership," said Peter Levine, director of a nonpartisan research center at the University of Maryland that studies young people and civic involvement. "They prefer horizontal leadership in which everyone's a leader."

McCain Quietly Challenges Bush Legacy in Iraq

As a British commentator said last week when a John McCain oped appeared in the Financial Times, it was something that could have been written by John Kerry in 2004. Sen. John McCain's speech in Los Angeles yesterday repeated his themes of consulting with allies before going to war and that the U.S. can't do what it wants, when it wants, regardless of how powerful it is.

"When we believe international action is necessary, whether military, economic or diplomatic, we will try to persuade our friends that we are right. But we in return must be willing to be persuaded by them," he said.

As NPR's Steve Inskeep and Juan Williams discussed this morning, McCain may support the war in Iraq, but he is disowning some of the policies that led to it. Without directly criticizing President Bush, McCain is suggesting a more collaborative approach with American allies.

McCain mentioned several presidents he respected yesterday, but did not mention Bush -- as Williams said, it was like "the dog that didn't bark."

But perhaps the most interesting aspect of the speech was why he gave it at all. Some political commentators are wondering why McCain is giving major speeches right now when the media are so focused on the battle between his Democratic rivals.

Part of the explanation may be where he gave the speech - in Los Angeles. McCain very much believes he can be competitive in California - a state with a moderate Republican governor with positions very similar to McCain's. By focusing on a more collaborative approach in the world, and by talking about the need to pay attention to global warming concerns, McCain was making a strong case to Californians.
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Update: Two conservative bloggers at NRO's The Corner give McCain's speech a loud "Harrumph!"

Debate Over Pastor Doesn't Hurt Obama in Polls

While Sen. Barack Obama's relationship with his controversial former pastor Jeremiah Wright is drawing a lot of attention in the media, it doesn't seem to be hurting him in either his battle against rival Sen. Hillary Clinton, or -- if he wins the Democratic nomination -- against Republican nominee Sen. John McCain. That's the take away from a new Wall Street Journal-NBC poll released Wednesday.

The latest survey has the Democratic rivals in a dead heat, each with 45% support from registered Democratic voters. It's a slight improvement for Sen. Obama - two weeks ago, a WSJ-NBC poll had Clinton leading 47% to 43%.

Obama has a two-point lead over McCain - another dead heat. He has lost some support among Republicans, but continues to lead McCain by a comfortable margin with independents.

"Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC polls with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, called the latest poll a 'myth-buster' that showed the pastor controversy is 'not the beginning of the end for the Obama campaign.' "

But the poll does show that the battle between the two Democrats is taking its toll, and it appears to be hitting Clinton harder than Obama. For instance, she is viewed more negatively than positively by women voters for the first time, and her lead among white voters shrank from 50% to 39% to 49% to 41% -- which, as the Journal notes "seems to refute widespread speculation -- and fears among Sen. Obama's backers -- that he would lose white support for his bid to be the nation's first African-American president over the controversy surrounding his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. of Chicago."

Chuck Todd, of MSNBC's First Read offers a more detailed breakdown of the poll numbers and adds this interesting comment:

"Considering the doom-and-gloom some predicted for Obama with regard to the Wright controversy, the overall tenor of the electorate appears to still be favorable for him. He's mortal, but he's survived ... for now. It's not clear whether he'd be this resilient if another controversy exploded as big as Wright, but it appears that voters are giving him the benefit of doubt. There's lots of evidence inside these numbers that voters still would like to know more about Obama, and that is both an opportunity and a potential obstacle."

Democrats Increasingly Fear Lasting Harm For Fall

Democrats are increasingly worried that the "two-way suicide pact" (as one GOP strategist described it) "serves only to write the script for Republican ads in the fall and to give John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, a head start in framing his candidacy."

The Boston Globe reports that Democrats feel it's very different from 90 days ago when everyone was saying "Isn't it wonderful that we have two great candidates." The increasingly bitterness of the campaign is beginning to affect supporters on both sides.

A Gallup poll Wednesday showed that 28% of those who support Sen. Hillary Clinton says they will vote for Republican nominee Sen. John McCain rather than Sen. Barack Obama, while 19 percent of Obama supporters say the same thing about not voting for Clinton.

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