NPR: Clinton Ahead in Ohio, Catches up in Texas

Clinton Ahead in Ohio, Catches up in Texas

Has Barack Obama thrown in the towel in Ohio? Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo notes that Obama has no official events scheduled in Ohio. Instead, he's spending today and tomorrow in Texas.

Meanwhile three new polls show Hillary Clinton pulling ahead in Ohio and alongside in Texas. Public Policy Polling (PPP) has her up by nine, Rasmussen Reports by six and Quinnipiac by four - but Quinnipiac points out that just a week ago, Clinton had an 11-point lead in their polling, so it would seem to indicate momentum for Obama. (The Zogby poll mentioned in a previous posting today is the only poll that shows Obama with a lead in Texas.)

And PPP shows Clinton ahead by six in Texas, but most other polls have it a dead heat.

Marshall add that he has seen this "weird mindset" from Clinton supporters that even with Obama's eleven straight victories, if he loses Ohio and Texas tomorrow, he has to "get out of the race."

That seems ridiculous to me. But I'll admit I'm less sure than I was even a couple days where we're going to be on March 5th. Under most probable scenarios the overall delegate math doesn't change a lot tomorrow. And I still don't [see] the superdelegates going for the candidate who has a clear deficit among pledged delegates. But politics is unpredictable.

But here's another possible factor in Ohio. The weather is supposed to be terrible tomorrow, according the the national forecast. The Associated Press reports that "The National Weather Service is looking for freezing rain to cover most of the northern half of the state, which will be under a winter storm through Wednesday morning. The weather service says if temperatures fail to crack the freezing mark on Tuesday, a "significant" coating of ice is possible. Across most of southern Ohio, there's a threat of heavy rain and flooding. The forecasters expect 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the region on primary day, with even higher amounts possible in some areas."

If true, this could help Obama, who had a much younger group of supporters and may be less inhibited by bad weather, and hurt Clinton, whose support is heaviest among those 50 and older. It certainly means who ever has the best get out the vote machinery will win.

6:30 PM ET | 03- 3-2008 | permalink

Comments (Send a comment)

Bad weather ...? Too bad Ohio doesn't have a 'Vote By Mail' system like we have in Oregon. The whole country should have a vote by mail system -- it's wonderful. No worries about a possibly corrupt Diebold system, no waiting in long lines at the polls, no missing work. Why DOESN'T the whole country vote by mail?

Sent by Leslie Frioeman | 11:16 PM ET | 03-03-2008

You can essentially vote by mail in Ohio(absentee) but you have to request it in advance. They eliminated (4 yrs ago) the requirement that you state that you expect to be "out of the county".

Sent by rayy | 8:47 AM ET | 03-04-2008

Ohio also allows you to vote "absentee" early by walking into the board of elections office several weeks prior to the election (I voted that way last Thursday).

Sent by Shirley | 11:13 AM ET | 03-04-2008

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