Clinton Won Big, But the Delegate Math is a Problem
Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign was filled with new life last night after her popular vote primary victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. It definitely gave impetus to her desire to continue the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination.
But as Time magazine reports, even with her victories last night, the math is working against Clinton. Since Democratic primaries and caucuses don't work on a winner-take-all formula (like many GOP primaries), it's almost impossible for Clinton to overcome Obama's lead in the pledged-delegate category.
Some of the upcoming states to vote -- including Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi on March 11 -- are likely to swing strongly for Obama, and certainly show no signs of being Clinton blowouts. The same goes for North Carolina on May 6, and Oregon on May 20.Other contests might be more favorable for Clinton (Pennsylvania, Indiana, Guam, West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota), but even decisive wins in those states -- say, in the 60-40 range -- would still leave her behind in both elected delegates and the overall count. That remains true even if Clinton somehow succeeds in getting the disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan seated at the convention.
As NPR's David Greene said on Morning Edition, he hasn't seen people in the Clinton campaign so relieved and energized since they won in New Hampshire.
But the reality check is that Clinton has a "very large hill to climb" and that unless she "blows out" Obama in every remaining contest (which, as Time pointed out above, is unlikely to happen) she's not going to catch up. Which means she needs to pay attention to superdelegates.
Greene says the Clinton team will have to make the case that even if Obama has the lead in pledged-delegates superdelegates should support Clinton for the nomination.
Update: Ross Douthat from theAtlantic.com has more on what the Clinton campaign needs to do to win the nomination:
"Hillary has a chance at victory, but only if she can pull ahead in the overall popular vote, including Florida (she's already ahead if you include Michigan, but of course Obama wasn't on the ballot there), and then argue, to the superdelegates but also to the public, that as the choice of the majority of voters in the Democratic nominating process she has a "moral claim" on the nomination."
11:25 AM ET | 03- 5-2008 | permalink

