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Clinton Won Big, But the Delegate Math is a Problem

Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign was filled with new life last night after her popular vote primary victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. It definitely gave impetus to her desire to continue the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination.

But as Time magazine reports, even with her victories last night, the math is working against Clinton. Since Democratic primaries and caucuses don't work on a winner-take-all formula (like many GOP primaries), it's almost impossible for Clinton to overcome Obama's lead in the pledged-delegate category.

Some of the upcoming states to vote -- including Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi on March 11 -- are likely to swing strongly for Obama, and certainly show no signs of being Clinton blowouts. The same goes for North Carolina on May 6, and Oregon on May 20.

Other contests might be more favorable for Clinton (Pennsylvania, Indiana, Guam, West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota), but even decisive wins in those states -- say, in the 60-40 range -- would still leave her behind in both elected delegates and the overall count. That remains true even if Clinton somehow succeeds in getting the disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan seated at the convention.

As NPR's David Greene said on Morning Edition, he hasn't seen people in the Clinton campaign so relieved and energized since they won in New Hampshire.

But the reality check is that Clinton has a "very large hill to climb" and that unless she "blows out" Obama in every remaining contest (which, as Time pointed out above, is unlikely to happen) she's not going to catch up. Which means she needs to pay attention to superdelegates.

Greene says the Clinton team will have to make the case that even if Obama has the lead in pledged-delegates superdelegates should support Clinton for the nomination.


Update: Ross Douthat from theAtlantic.com has more on what the Clinton campaign needs to do to win the nomination:

"Hillary has a chance at victory, but only if she can pull ahead in the overall popular vote, including Florida (she's already ahead if you include Michigan, but of course Obama wasn't on the ballot there), and then argue, to the superdelegates but also to the public, that as the choice of the majority of voters in the Democratic nominating process she has a "moral claim" on the nomination."

 

Comments (Send a comment)

Hillary Clinton might have won, but overall she lost. She resorted to whining about the "unfair media coverage", she distorted information about her opponent, she ran two separate campaigns in TX and OH, and she sold out by appearing on late night comedy channels. She is not the feminist role model I want my daughter to grow up with. Her message is inconsistent and incongruent. How can she consider herself a "fighter" when she got to where she is by cheating. She lost my vote. She lost my respect. And so, might I add, did the people of Ohio and Texas for reinforcing to the Clintons that negative campaigning works. I'm and Obama mama, now. Clinton '08 -- NO I WON'T!

Sent by susan | 11:47 AM ET | 03-05-2008

It is so disheartening to see how devisive both the Obama and Clinton campaigns have been to the democratic platform. They have both done more to errode the foundation of either candidate, making a democratic victory in '08 harder to obtain overall. The mud slinging within our own party just makes the republicans job easier when the real battle begins post-primary. Can't we focus on who is most qualified, who has the best plans, and who will be able to implement changes that benefit the majority of Americans.

Sent by K. Logan | 12:08 PM ET | 03-05-2008

Hillary negative campaigns only works on the many undereducated and gullible people of Texas and Ohio. As a Texan I am shocked at the results and highly suspicious of the procedure, because there were more Obama supporter I came across than Clinton. EXACTYLY HOW SHE RAN HER CAMPAIGN SHE WILL RUN THE WHITE HOUSE...

Sent by Heather | 12:14 PM ET | 03-05-2008

Sent by susan: Hillary Clinton might have won, but overall she lost.

Typical Utopian Liberal rhetoric. Liberals can't even give credit to other liberals for winning. It's always, "They cheated."

And, of course, it's the Utopian Liberals who shout the loudest about government for the people, by the people. When the people have spoken, and the Utopian Liberals have lost, then it's the Utopian Liberals who decry that it was corruption and fascism that won it for the other side.

So sad. Utopian Liberals even attack one another when their particular liberal views lose.

No wonder the Utopian Democrats have so much trouble choosing a leader.

fred camorra call

Sent by fred camorra call | 12:24 PM ET | 03-05-2008

I'm not so sure Hillary's negative smear-and-fear tactics really worked. Obama was able to cut into a sizable lead in Texas, and in Ohio, it seems like the numbers didn't change much. But, yes, I'm really turned off by her tactics and won't vote for her if she somehow wins the nomination. I'm with Obama all the way. He will do so much more than Clinton or McCain to restore American values and our good standing in the world community.

The Democratic party has a difficult problem on its hands. How difficult remains to be seen. But the rules as they exist weren't really written with a fight-to-the-finish in mind. This could get ugly. With Clinton's willingness, nay delight, in mucking it up, I'm not so sure the Dems can come out of this without some serious bitter feelings carrying over into election day. And no, I don't think the "dream ticket" is the answer.

Sent by TJ | 12:27 PM ET | 03-05-2008

There was some discussion on this show on Obama being the transparency candidate and how he was should sit down in a room of reporters and answer every last question until the reporters are satisfied he is telling the truth and revealing everything. My comment is that if Obama holds himself to this standard then each of his opponents should also be held to this standard. I also do not have the inherent trust in the media, exhibited by the reporters on the show, to be unbiased in their questions and that there are those in the media who will not accept any statement and/or will filter all responses through a bias either for or against that particular candidate. Contrary to its statement ??? Fox News is neither fair nor balanced.

Sent by T Hack | 12:32 PM ET | 03-05-2008

Every stone must be uncovered - that includes redoing Michigan and Florida. All that has happened is good - both sides for whatever that may be. To complain is not going to help. If anything is actually "wrong" in terms of number then it must be redone. Only then would I even consider voting for anyone. Give All American people a say or no one will have a say. REDO REDO REDO - get it right - the canditates don't need a working over the system does!

Sent by Nowell | 12:49 PM ET | 03-05-2008

The fact is republicans and there media
(most of them are owned by republicans)
wanted this democratic fight to go on
which will be advantage to Senator mccain to regroup and prepare for general election.Many republicans have voted for hillary in texas the 3% margin of victory in primary could be that

Sent by nish | 12:57 PM ET | 03-05-2008

I can foresee a big block of Obama supporters voting for McCain if the dirty Clinton machinery wins, which they would try to do by making Barack unelectable. I know for certain that the black vote would either vote for McCain or not vote at all come November.

Sent by YK | 1:22 PM ET | 03-05-2008

To Fred Camorra Call:
How sad that you completely miss the point.

Sent by susan | 1:59 PM ET | 03-05-2008

Sent by susan: To Fred Camorra Call:
How sad that you completely miss the point.

There you go again. Blaming someone else for your mistakes. Typical Liberal Utopian tactics that don't work around here.

What is frightening is not so much that Barack Obama sorely lacks in experience, it is that so many Michael Moore Liberal Utopians have deluded themselves into believing that experience does not count.

The day-temp worker has come into the office to tell the corporate CEO how to run the business.

The Michael Moore Liberals have become so accustomed to blaming everyone else that they long ago quit trying to come up with a valid plan or solution. Why go through the problem of reality when it is so much easier simply to fabricate blame onto the other side for corruption and fascism.

Barack Obama lost in Ohio and Texas. The Barack Obama followers have accused the Clinton campaign of cheating and corruption and all other forms of underhanded tactics. When, in reality, the truth is setting in that Democrats are waking up to realize the fact that Barack Obama is an amateur politician who says nothing, but looks snappy saying nothing.

Except Barack Obama does what other Michael Moore Liberal Utopians do: he blames everyone else for being corrupt and underhanded.

Then you Michael Moore Liberal Utopians cry the loudest that government should be by the people and for the people....except when the people have spoken out against you Michael Moore Liberal Utopians. When people speak in opposition to your thoughts, they are corrupt and fascist.

Nothing was missed, Susan. You tried to blame me for your mistake. You probably can't help yourself. You've been a Michael Moore Liberal Utopian who has fallen into that trap for too long.

Wanted: Experts to play the blame game. No experience required.

fred camorra call

Sent by fred camorra call | 2:22 PM ET | 03-05-2008

The media totally took the bait when HRC falsely played victim (memories of NH anyone?) and claimed they were being "unfair" to her. They were totally complicit in generating the negative stories last week and gave her lots of free advertising by constantly replaying her fear-mongering TV spots.

Wonder why? Because negativity sells. CNN just reported record profits and increased audiences during the Democratic primaries.

Sent by Frank | 3:03 PM ET | 03-05-2008

fred camorra call wrote: "Typical Utopian Liberal rhetoric. Liberals can't even give credit to other liberals for winning. It's always, "They cheated."
And, of course, it's the Utopian Liberals who shout the loudest about government for the people, by the people. When the people have spoken, and the Utopian Liberals have lost, then it's the Utopian Liberals who decry that it was corruption and fascism that won it for the other side. So sad. Utopian Liberals even attack one another when their particular liberal views lose. No wonder the Utopian Democrats have so much trouble choosing a leader."

fred camorra call, so that I may gain knowledge and understanding, why is it incorrect to be a "utopian", "liberal" or "utopian liberal"? In your answer, please include your definition for each term.

Sent by Andrea Hetheru | 3:55 PM ET | 03-05-2008

Fred-
did you bother to read my first comment? Let me repeat: "She lost my vote. She lost my respect." I have been a Clinton supporter until this last "kitchen sink" tactic.

A government for the people, by the people still supports one's opinion whether you agree or not. I anxiously await the next long winded response; they're becoming rather entertaining.

Sent by susan | 5:59 PM ET | 03-05-2008

Give it up, Fred.
You post the same stuff every single day on every single thread. You take your clever buzz words and throw them out regardless of whether they have anything to do with the thread topic. You certainly are your own number one fan.

Sent by Matt LaGoy | 7:09 PM ET | 03-05-2008

Sent by Matt LaGoy: You certainly are your own number one fan.

And Matt, long as you promise to remain my number two fan, we'll get along fine. You know how I love you Michael Moore Liberal Utopians.


Sent by susan: Fred-did you bother to read my first comment?

Okay, Susan. If I missed something, tell me. Because, here are your words:

"Hillary Clinton might have won, but overall she lost. She resorted to whining about the "unfair media coverage", she distorted information about her opponent.......She lost my vote. She lost my respect. And so, might I add, did the people of Ohio and Texas for reinforcing to the Clintons that negative campaigning works."

Susan, that suggests to me that you feel that Hillary Clinton won by underhanded, unethical means. That she lied about Barack Obama.

Rather than, as I contend, Hillary won because she pointed out to the people of Texas and Ohio what a phony Barack Obama is, and the people of Ohio and Texas caught on. And the people of Texas and Ohio stopped the Barack Obama scam in his tracks.

I can only interpret your meaning based on what you write. If you wrote something else, tell me.

fred camorra call


Sent by fred camorra call | 8:54 PM ET | 03-05-2008

I can hardly wait to vote for Barack Obama in 2016, I think he will be an excellent choice to lead America.

The world will change in 2008 when a woman becomes President of the USA. Go Hillary.

Sent by NJ | 9:43 PM ET | 03-05-2008

fred camorra call

you have too much free time and not enough free thought. You should like a radio talk show host or like someone who sits watching the conservative press all day. I dont want or need you to change your views I just want them to be yours

Sent by Fran | 12:13 AM ET | 03-06-2008

fred camorra call wrote: "Typical Utopian Liberal rhetoric. Liberals can't even give credit to other liberals for winning. It's always, "They cheated."
And, of course, it's the Utopian Liberals who shout the loudest about government for the people, by the people. When the people have spoken, and the Utopian Liberals have lost, then it's the Utopian Liberals who decry that it was corruption and fascism that won it for the other side. So sad. Utopian Liberals even attack one another when their particular liberal views lose. No wonder the Utopian Democrats have so much trouble choosing a leader."

AGAIN, so that others may gain knowledge and understanding, fred camorra call, please explain why is it incorrect to be a "utopian", "liberal" or "utopian liberal"? In your answer, please include your definition for each term.

If you do not answer, it is logical to conclude that either you are confused about a/the term(s) you used or that you are trying to confuse others. Deliberately causing confusion is the signature of those who do not wish to promote justice.

Justice = A SYSTEM in which no person is mistreated AND in which, if any help is given, it is given first/most to the person(s) who are most in need of help.

Sent by Andrea Hetheru | 11:33 AM ET | 03-07-2008

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