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Poll: Obama Speech Doesn't Slow Clinton Momentum

The Gallup Daily Tracking poll shows that for the first time in a month, Sen. Hillary Clinton has opened up a statistically significant lead over Sen. Barack Obama in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. Today's poll shows Clinton with a 49% to 42% lead over Obama in national Democratic voters' presidential nomination preference.

"This is the first time Clinton has held a statistically significant lead in over a month. She last led Obama in Feb. 7-9 polling, just after the Super Tuesday primaries. Since then, the two candidates have usually been in a statistical tie, but Obama has held a lead in several of the polls, most recently in March 11-13 polling.

"Obama's campaign has been plagued by controversial remarks made by his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama delivered a major speech on race Tuesday to try to move beyond the controversy. The initial indications are that the speech has not halted Clinton's gaining momentum, as she led by a similar margin in Tuesday night's polling as compared to Monday night's polling."

In a conference call today, the Clinton campaign made much of the new Gallup poll, as well as a new poll from Reuters-Zogby that also shows her doing well. Campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson said that "a significant case of buyers' remorse" was setting in among Democratic voters about Sen. Obama.

And chief strategist Mark Penn said that these polls show a strong swing in Clinton's favor after her victories in the Ohio and Texas primaries. When asked if Obama's troubles were specifically related to his relationship with Wright, Penn fudged a bit and said he felt there were a "number of issues and questions raised" over the past few weeks that contributed to the situation.

But one thing about polls ... you can always find one to prove the opposite. The Washington Times reports that "an ambitious 50-state poll of 30,000 registered voters by media pollster SurveyUSA" shows both Clinton and Obama defeating Republican Representative Sen. John McCain. although Obama would have an easier time of it.

" ...Mr. McCain would lose to both of them at this point in the election year, though by a closer electoral margin against Mrs. Clinton (276-262) than against Mr. Obama (280-258) in the race for the 270 votes needed to win the presidency. In both matchups, the poll shows the Democrats winning red states that Republicans have usually carried in past elections, though in some cases by razor-thin margins."

 

Comments (Send a comment)

Momentum? Splitting two of the four states in the last primary date is "momentum"? Please stop and think before just reaching for the nearest buzzword.

Sent by Marla | 4:18 PM ET | 03-19-2008

Yes momentum.

Moving ever closer to the spectacular, inevitable and quite expected Democrat party breakup in Denver. It's mathematically delicious! The ideology of envy, victimology and entitlement can only sustain itself for so long.

Sent by deek | 4:37 PM ET | 03-19-2008

Great point. this struggle is like a swing or pendulum. It is now swinging a little bit towards Mrs. Hillary RODHAM Clinton. At this point she needs to draw attention to any shred of news to keep her delegates from marching to the other side. In the longer term, do these polls really hurt O'Bama? Nada Mucho, Hillary still will not be able to catch up on the delegate lead. Let's ask Mark Penn to show us some "statistically significant" data on that.

Sent by Ken Aung | 4:43 PM ET | 03-19-2008

Clinton had to play the race card to gain momentum. She alienates a primary voting block in her base by shifting the focus to Obama's race and then calls it momentum. She can't beat him on the issues butshe can tear him down using his race..Does she really expect to win in a general election??

Glenn D.
Austin,Tx

Sent by Glenn Dunlap | 5:00 PM ET | 03-19-2008

What good is momentum when you have neither enough delegate votes or popular vote to command the nomination?It is entirely possible that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination through some unscrupulous means, but I predict that if she does, there'll throngs of Obama write-ins in November. I hope the Democratic Party leaders know what they're doing.

Sent by Lynn | 5:38 PM ET | 03-19-2008

And chief strategist Mark Penn said that these polls show a strong swing in Clinton's favor after her victories in the Ohio and Texas primaries.

That's right.

Hillary beat the Obama guy in Texas.

And Ohio.

Cause she reminded the voters that you just don't let an amateur anywhere near the American nuclear arsenal.

That's all it took.

Then Jeremiah Wright moves right in to remind everyone that if you let the wrong people near the American nuclear arsenal, you got your Biblical Armageddon a'coming.

It's called a Fail-Safe system.

The Barack guy won't get anywhere close to America's nuclear arsenal.

You can bet your last nickle on that, Jack.

fred camorra call

Sent by fred camorra call | 6:24 PM ET | 03-19-2008

Obviously, the commentator here who accuses Obama of having an "ideology of envy, victimology, and entitlement" has not actually read or listened to his March 18 speech at Philadelphia, in which he specifically pinpointed such an ideology, showing both how it derives from legitimate historical roots and how it often prevents interracial unity in public affairs. I would suggest this commentator, who spitefully views the Democratic nomination stalemate as "mathematically delicious," revise his views: it is mathematically devastating.

Hilary may cite all the polls she wants. The "momentum" of her campaign really only refers to the speed and deftness with which she can attempt to hide from the American people the fact that her campaign lacks goals, purpose, or a unifying vision for this country. Barack Obama has these things in spades, which is why in his speech yesterday he didn't quote any polls or try to lash out at the Clinton campaign for its underhanded tactics -- instead, he talked with vigor and seriousness about REAL ISSUES.

Sent by Joshua Lavender | 6:25 PM ET | 03-19-2008

In response to deek, envy of an oil grab in Iraq, victomology of hard working Americans, and entitlement of oil and gas companies taking us to the bank can only sustain itself for so long. 8 more years of Republican misdeeds can only bring Americans to their knees. Democrats can prevail but it will take hard work.

Sent by Paul Shepherd | 6:38 PM ET | 03-19-2008

Last I checked, Obama is going to get more delegates from Texas, so in what bizarre universe do people think Clinton won there? Four percentage points in the primary plus a loss in the caucus does not equal a "stunning victory" as all the media outlets have reported.

Sent by Morgan | 8:16 PM ET | 03-19-2008

I am just glad that we are finally getting to know Mr. Obama before we elect him as our President. I would hate for our Country to make a big mistake without all the facts.

Sent by Ellan | 9:20 PM ET | 03-19-2008

Why do politicians believe voters are morons? Obama's answer to this J. Wright scandal is to speak to us about race. J. Wright said things about America that are flat out lies and untruths and Obama sits there for 20 years? Obama only denounced Wright when he realized it was politically advantageous to do so. Obama then tries to make it "ok" by speaking to the voters on race? Why did he not explain why he sat in that pew, with his family, for 20 years listening to this rhetoric? I know now where his wife's comments came from. I can not vote for a person who shows so little respect for someone's intelligence. Obama, please speak to the issue, don't create one to change the subject.

Sent by Paul | 9:28 PM ET | 03-19-2008

more to come on BOZObama; his chickens are coming home to roost!!! haha; this clown ain't got a chance...

Sent by Muniz4Hillary | 1:40 AM ET | 03-20-2008

What the party needs is a fighter not a marshmellow. It's ok to talk about high ideals and the issues facing the nation but if you can't get elected it's all for naught. The last two nominees rolled over and played dead in the face of massive voter fraud by Republicans. The last thing the Democrats need now is for a smooth talking talking head; to win this thing will take hard fighting in the trenches and Senator Clinton appears to have more "intestinal fortitude" for what it takes to battle through adversity and win.

Sent by Paul Cole | 1:48 AM ET | 03-20-2008

"Tell me who your friends are and I will tell you who you are."

Sent by Kcarab Amabo | 12:27 PM ET | 03-20-2008

As a female, middle-aged, lifelong Democrat, this week I heard - for the first time in way too many years - a powerful message of hope and truth, a candid message in which a candidate in my party confronted, head-on, the challenge of this racial divide which has festered too long beneath the surface in our political landscape. For the first time in decades I was deeply, powerfully inspired by one of my party's voices. There is no longer any doubt: Mr. Obama speaks to me, and for me - a middle-aged white woman. After 32 years of voting for democratic candidates in presidential elections, after having loyally served as the democratic committeeman in my community, I have recently become ashamed of my party as a result of the dirty tricks and win-at-any-cost tactics of "the other" Democratic candidate. Make no mistake, DNC: I will this year refuse to cast a vote for my party's candidate if the party turns its back on the voice of hope, and instead opts for the candidate who most closely resembles a Republican. Wake up, DNC. Wake up, superdelegates. Wake up, Mr. & Ms. America. Mimicking the other guys, trying to look like your adversaries, is not the honorable course. The future stands before us, extending its hand. Are we going to reach out and grasp that hand, or are we going to scurry back toward the past like scared little ground squirrels looking for a hole to hide in? We stand at (to borrow a phrase) "the threshold of a dream." I, for one, after all these years, am ready to dream again.

Sent by N. Nelson | 1:56 PM ET | 03-20-2008

Intestinal fortitude, or guts, used to mean the quality to stand for one's values and beliefs. Our language has become distorted in these days of, "the big lie", Madison Ave speak and the belief that all is fair in the pursuit of wealth and power,just be sure to hire the dirtiest, most unscrupulous political consultant you can buy. Hillary claims credit for childrens insurance legislation for which she was little more than a spectator. Her swaggering boasts of foriegn policy experience crumble before the facts,( Hillary as First Lady was never even granted a security clearance), and had nothing to do with the negotiations in the Balkans or Ireland. Interesting to note as well, the political contributions from the Rich family as international fugitive Marc Rich was being pardoned by Hillary's husband. Being tough was once an attribute to be respected. Standing for the truth, for justice, for the little guy. Today when 10% of a company's work force is laid off, the 100 million dollar a year CEO is considered to be "tough". When Bill Clinton stuck to his story that he was victimized by Jennifer Flowers, Paula Jones and 21 year old Monica Lewinsky, he was "tough". And when Hillary injects through her cohorts the vilest poisons, catalysts of hate and fear to distort the truth in this presidential contest, she has intestinal fortitude? It is time to be concerned with what our country needs rather than the tactical needs of our party. We need leadership away from the sleazey practices that have mired the greatest country on earth in what has become a horrific slaughter of innocent Iraquis and a waste of precious American lives, a slaughter Hillary voted for and supported with her words out of political expediency. Barrack Obama has the guts to lead Americans back to America. The guts to lead us in the pursuit of truth and justice, compassion, generosity of spirit, and the moral standing that stood for genuine greatness and a model that people all over the world once would strive to emulate. Hillary is more of the same. Barack Obama offers a choice.

Sent by frank driscoll | 2:32 PM ET | 03-20-2008

I have heard several in the Media ask, "Why did Obama stay at the church for 20 years if he was aware that his pastor and mentor was so controversial and biased." . If you actually listen to the speech from Obama, he stated that the messages contained in the videos being aired do not reflect what truly went on at the church on a regular basis. Maybe some in the media should look into this by attending a few sermons and let us know what they find.

Sent by DLH704 | 9:08 PM ET | 03-20-2008

I think DLH704 makes a very good point - is it only Obama's church's most inflammatory moments that count? What about its commitment to social justice and active work towards that goal? Although I support Obama, I'll also say that if his detractors want to level some substantial charges against him or the Trinity United Church of Christ, they would do better to search for evidence that its outreach programs (touted in Obama's recent Philadelphia speech) are nonexistant or ineffective. Then, they might be able to make the claim that Wright's hateful remarks truly define that church. If Obama's church does, on the other hand, engage in extensive, progressive, productive community service, then how much difference does Wright's occasional vitriol (however vile) really make? George W. Bush speaks a language of Christian ethics, peace, etc. but consistently acts to make our world less just and less peaceful - precisely why America is so fed up with him and Republicans in general. I'll judge a man by his actions over his angry verbiage. In addition, Wright is FAR from the only American I've ever heard make the argument that the U.S. brought 9/11 on itself by supporting an Israeli apartheid state. How is anybody actually shocked by that assertion at this time?

Sent by Antonio de Ridder-Vignone | 10:06 AM ET | 03-21-2008

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