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Clinton's Hunt For Pledged Delegate Lead 'Over'

NBC's Chuck Todd just made an interesting statement on TV. Sen. Hillary Clinton's chance to win the pledged delegate category is basically over after Pennsylvania.

Here's why ...

As the News Blog noted earlier today, Clinton might pick up 10 more delegates than Sen. Barack Obama tonight. Not a lot. And it's likely that Obama will make up much of that loss in North Carolina. Indiana will likely be close as well.

And that means Clinton will need to win more than 80 percent of the remaining votes in the primaries after May 6th. And that is not going to happen.

That means the contest becomes a battle for the popular vote and superdelegates.

Here is Clinton's other problem: her main argument becomes "See, I can win the big states we need." (Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, however, said on All Things Considered that performance in the primaries is not an indicator of performance in the fall -- in fact, in the big states that Clinton has won in the primaries, Obama polls just as well against Sen. John McCain as does Clinton.)

But if Obama wins the popular vote (which still appears likely), the pledged delegates, and a greater number of states than Clinton, will the superdelegates basically ignore those factors? And if they do, how will Democratic voters who voted for Obama react?

It's on to North Carolina and Indiana.

 

Comments (Send a comment)

As an Obama supporter in NC, I can tell you how I'll react if the superdelegates overturn the pledged delegate result: Bye-bye Democratic party. Forever and ever. I'll go Green, Libertarian, or just go home.

Sent by TJ | 10:17 PM ET | 04-22-2008

Hillary has divided the democratic party with her negative and relentless attacks that are unwarranted and wrong. She and her husband have started a new party...what will they call themselves after the primary is over and she has said too many negative things about the person who will be facing John McCain..."The Washington Insiders?". Hillary, your negative style is exactly what we don't need and your lack of motivation to be decent and respectful to the person that will win the nomination and later beat McCain is a sign of your selfish discontent. That kind of politics and personality are not what we need in the White House.

Sent by Ben Clinton | 10:39 PM ET | 04-22-2008

Obama is clearly going to maintain his leads on all counts. The question is when is the right time for Hillary to bow out. At this point she can only hope for a huge meltdown in Obama's campaign. But if "bitter" and Wright didn't pull him down, not much else will.

Sent by Jon Bell | 11:24 PM ET | 04-22-2008

Democrats needs a Republican to plan their layout. If the Democrats loose this election, I will never become a Democratic ever in life. Simply because we are so divided in our decision making for President. The Clinton's wants to claim the white house as their legacy. Obama has new energy and very intelligent. He probably can run the country especially after all the problems George Bush created. My point is this. John McCain is not going to win anything, He too much like Bush. Hillary is too stern. Obama looks good and he will probably do a better job in the Middle East than George or Hillary.

Sent by Jesse | 11:38 PM ET | 04-22-2008

I 'm afraid the lesson is reinforced. Going negative works. The Clintons are hoping to cost the Democratic party another four years of Republican rule. It's a Rush Limbaugh dream come true.
The greatest galvanizing force for the Republican Party is one step closer to open season. Perhaps she can duck and run to safety through sniper fire like she did in Bosnia. No kidding. When the 3 AM call comes in I want somebody who won't shovel cow paddy about what is happening. We've endured eight years of immeasurable dishonesty due in large part to the Clintons. How many times do you want to go around on the same lazy Susan?

Sent by Michael M Jones | 12:32 AM ET | 04-23-2008

Divided we stand. The one thing that comes through loud and clear with last nights vote is how anemic the Democratic Party really is. In the end it comes down to Jane and Joe public voting wallet and fear, further evidence McCain & Clinton are one and the same. Well, so much for lofty ideals. Are we too quick to turn our backs on the future, just running scared?

Sent by George Gekas | 7:26 AM ET | 04-23-2008

Mike Jones is spot on..the Clinton administration was bathed in lies like, " I did not have sexual relations with those women.." the most memorable. The victim stance that followed, as if 21 year old Monica took advantage of the 54 year old President of the U.S., is most astounding and carries over into this Clinton's bid for the White House. Ms. Clinton lies about Bosnia, her stance on NAFTA, support for the invasion of Iraq, and when caught in her dishonesty, claims victim status. Most frightening is how closely she tracks the behavior of the current administration in her willingness to use the "Big Lie". Our country needs a radical departure from what has become the accepted standard in Washington DC. A President who leads with integrity, not with the twisted strangulation of the truth by high paid Clinton spin masters.

Sent by frank driscoll | 9:16 AM ET | 04-23-2008

We see the usual attitudes of Obama supporters manifested here once again. If my candidate doesn't win then I will take my marbles and go home and ensure that a Republican wins. Does this make any sense? There is little difference between the policies of Hillary Clinton and Obama. The real difference is in how effective the candidate would be if elected. Obama was defeated in his 2000 bid for the Senate, elected in 2004, spent half of his single term in office writing his autobiography and running for president. What qualifies him?
Rhetoric about change and unification? Unification, while he attends a church which reminds one of how religion has poisoned first the GOP and now the leading Democratic candidate.


Well, take your marbles and go home and watch the GOP take Obama apart. And this time they won't need to resort to Swift Boat lies. Obama's "spiritual mentor" who clearly despises the Unites States, in the Reverend Wright, Michelle's patronizing comments about the United States as a "downright mean country, his lack of experience, his refusal to even give the appearance of being patriotic, and "present" votes whenever a controversial issue arose will be sufficient. Then we will have a third Bush term. Wait and see.

Sent by David | 10:14 AM ET | 04-23-2008

David, I don't understand why you think this is "the usual attitudes of Obama supporters". Check the numbers. According to Gallup, 28% of Hillary supporters will vote Republican if she is not the nominee, vs 19% of Obama supporters who would defect. Sure sounds to me like more Hillary supporters plan to 'take their marbles and go home' as you put it.

I am an Obama supporter, but it will take a lot for me not to vote for whoever the democratic nominee is. 'A lot' may be if the superdelegates go against the popular vote without good reason, but only time will tell what will happen come convention. I support my party, but I am disheartened by the number of people who apparently do not.

Please check the numbers.

Sent by Jenn | 10:29 AM ET | 04-23-2008

It seems that Obama's popular vote lead might actually be concentrated in one very small area of the country; Cook County Illinois.

http://www.theneweditor.com/index.php?/archives/7783-The-Power-of-Cook-County,-Illinois.html
"That margin in Cook County represents almost 60% of Obama's total lead nationwide."

So reallty when you look at it, his popular vote lead really isn't really representative of the primaries as a whole.

Sent by deek | 10:51 AM ET | 04-23-2008

David, 47 million Americans, a large portion of them children, are without healthcare. 11 million children in the U.S. go to bed hungry each night. The U.S. public school system, particularly in our cities, is a disgrace. Yet we continue to spned $3billion each week on a war based, we now know, on lies, an amount that would cure allof these problems, not to mention the 4000 Americans killed in an illegal war. That's worse than mean.... And, while the divide between the very wealthy and the poor widens each year, US Oil companies are breaking records with each quarterly profit report. On the spiritual side, it's curious that there was no demand of white politicians to leave the Catholic church as the priest abuse scandal was revealed, despite the efforts of Cardinal Law in Boston to keep it buried, a scandal based on horrific acts, not words. In the end Dave, Barrak continues to lead in popular vote and in delegates... explain again why we should go home?

Sent by frank driscoll | 11:02 AM ET | 04-23-2008

I only hope that when the votes/delegates in Michigan and Florida are counted/seated as the DNC claims will happen by Convention, it will not simply be a formality of "gifting" these votes/delegates to the nominee that arrives at Convention(if both candidates are still in the race)...Florida and Michigan votes need to be resolved prior to this...it is the only FAIR thing to do...I would hate to think that are fellow Americans who would want to deny other fellow Americans having their votes count due to the ineptitude of those at the top (DNC)...once this is resolved...the "real count" exists regarding the candidates and I trust that everyone will accept the outcome, whether it be Clinton or Obama left standing...

Sent by ard | 3:29 PM ET | 04-23-2008

ard 04-23-2008


"..Florida and Michigan votes need to be resolved prior to (the convention).. "
RESOLVED!

There was a resolution to that effect months ago. And both candidates agreed to be bound by the resolution on how the primaries will be carried out.

"...it is the only FAIR thing to do..."
We are civilized if we abide by the laws and regulations that govern how we live and interact with one another.


The selfish desires of Hillary for the presidency cannot be assumed to supersede those of Sen Obama or those of the people.

Some people are full of themselves: There is no mention of Hilly or Billy in our constitution nor the articles that set up the Democratic Party.


One cannot do what one feels like doing anytime - or play by selfish rules that are different from those agreed upon collectively. That would NOT be fair. Don't know about the Clintons, but hat is what most Americans teach their kids- how to play with others, cooperatively.
Hilly and Billy, GROW UP!


Florida and Michigan thought they can make their own rules - then later join the rest with, hopefully, an sort of advantage. Hence a need arises for enforcement and sure punishment sufficiently brutal to discourage those who would be similarly adventurous in future.


By living in OUR society Hillary tacitly submits herself to be thus bound - that is, become a member of "our civilized way of life as we know it"


Anyway, we don't want moonshine-soaked, trembly fingers on the red button at 3AM. Neither do we want cavorting Billy's elbows there either.


"Screw 'em", "Nuke 'em" Hillary '08, WRONG for America

Sent by chokora | 4:16 AM ET | 04-24-2008

Chokora,

Okay, so I guess it's settled...your distaste for the Clintons is SO INTENSE that you can show no empathy for your fellow Michigan and Florida voters(no surprise...same as Obama campaign)....NICE, I thought this was America...allow me to reiterate...EVERY VOTE SHOULD COUNT...PERIOD.

PS: I wonder if when the Superdelegates make their difficult and "independent" decision to nominate Clinton prior to Convention, will you be equally supportive of the rules that govern the Superdelegate process...only time will tell...

Sent by ard | 9:25 AM ET | 04-24-2008

ard 04-24-2008

"..your distaste for the Clintons is SO INTENSE.."
Calm down! Don't 'see' things that are NOT there - like your Hillary in Bosnia.

"when the Superdelegates make their .. decision to nominate Clinton "
I don't doubt that THAT is what they may be waiting to do.
And indeed, the "we, the people" reasons for holding "elections" (instead of holding back-room negotiations) may have been blurred.

Would you get out of America if Sen Obama ends up as the nominee?

" .. you can show no empathy for your fellow Michigan and Florida voters.."
Empathy has nothing to do with it.
Should we show empathy towards those who disregard our laws and regulations that they helped formulate and which the rest of us live by?
Empty the prisons and shut down the justice system! you may tell us.
Empathy? Certainly Michigan and Florida showed very little of it ... Surely they understand even if they, like juveniles, don't agree that they should be punished. They should direct their anger at their state party leaders.
[For it is said, Spare the rod and spoil the ...]

" .....EVERY VOTE SHOULD COUNT ... PERIOD..."
Your "period" is premature.
Maybe you never heard of "spoilt ballots" or "pregnant shands" etc.

And what does Hillary really think of the American voter/worker?

"Screw 'em", "Nuke 'em" Hillary '08, WRONG for America

Sent by chokora | 11:13 AM ET | 04-24-2008

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