Clinton's Hunt For Pledged Delegate Lead 'Over'
NBC's Chuck Todd just made an interesting statement on TV. Sen. Hillary Clinton's chance to win the pledged delegate category is basically over after Pennsylvania.
Here's why ...
As the News Blog noted earlier today, Clinton might pick up 10 more delegates than Sen. Barack Obama tonight. Not a lot. And it's likely that Obama will make up much of that loss in North Carolina. Indiana will likely be close as well.
And that means Clinton will need to win more than 80 percent of the remaining votes in the primaries after May 6th. And that is not going to happen.
That means the contest becomes a battle for the popular vote and superdelegates.
Here is Clinton's other problem: her main argument becomes "See, I can win the big states we need." (Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, however, said on All Things Considered that performance in the primaries is not an indicator of performance in the fall -- in fact, in the big states that Clinton has won in the primaries, Obama polls just as well against Sen. John McCain as does Clinton.)
But if Obama wins the popular vote (which still appears likely), the pledged delegates, and a greater number of states than Clinton, will the superdelegates basically ignore those factors? And if they do, how will Democratic voters who voted for Obama react?
It's on to North Carolina and Indiana.
10:08 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink

