NPR: Early Turnout in Philadelphia Could Hint at Outcome

Early Turnout in Philadelphia Could Hint at Outcome

It all seems to come down to the City of Brotherly Love. Sen. Barack Obama and his campaign officials have already said they don't expect to win today's primary. But the big question is: Can they avoid a blowout and make it a contest?

For several weeks now, reporters and pundits have been talking about how the turnout in Philadelphia will shape the outcome in today's Pennsylvania primary. As the News Blog reported yesterday, Democratic registration in Philadelphia and the five counties surrounding the city has been vigorous and many of these new voters are seen as Obama supporters.

If turnout in Philadelphia is heavy, especially early in the day, Politico.com says that's good news for Obama and troubling news for Clinton. That's because African-Americans tend to go to the polls later in the day in the city. So if there is already a big turnout, before the group expected to vote heavily for Obama even goes to the polls, it means those new voters are coming out in big numbers.

If turnout in Philadelphia is not heavy, that means that Clinton may get her much-needed double-digit victory.
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UPDATE: The Philadelphia Inquirer features a constantly updated blog written by various reporters spread across the city and suburbs. Worth reading for a sense of what's happening in the city.

Meanwhile, Election Journal is using Twitter feeds and Flickr to keep folks updated.

9:23 AM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink

Comments (Send a comment)

Can someone explain to me why Pennsylvania is seen as so important? North Carolina has nearly as many delegates and Obama is poised to trounce Clinton there, most assuredly wiping out any gains she might make today.

Sent by Ben Byrne | 9:47 AM ET | 04-22-2008

What a fascinating horse race to the glue factory.

Wiiiiiilbur.

Sent by deek | 9:59 AM ET | 04-22-2008

It is amazing how perception is being hammered into our minds as reality. How small these people make themselves look.

Sent by Ty | 10:19 AM ET | 04-22-2008

Hey deek--it's been about a week since you've said anything new. It's time to move the needle, dude.

Sent by Drew | 11:01 AM ET | 04-22-2008

The media wants to make this appear to be a close race when in fact, Obama won the nomination weeks ago. The Democratic Party and the media won't admit it, though. The former because it can't as Clinton has every right to continue her campaign as long as she can afford to. The latter because a continued race is good for ratings.

But it is over and Obama is the nominee. In the fall he will win the traditional Democratic states given the alternative is another Republican. He will do well in crossover states as Independents will tip the balance. And he may do well in some traditionally Republican states (e.g. Virginia).

Sent by bjackson | 11:36 AM ET | 04-22-2008

@Ben-- I beleive that aside from the delegates gained, it's considered that the closer Obama comes to wining in PA, the more electable he will seem to the Superdelegates, and thus the more Superdelegates are likely to vote for him at the convention.

Sent by NoName | 11:52 AM ET | 04-22-2008

Numbah nine...numbah nine...numbah nine..

Sent by deek | 12:51 PM ET | 04-22-2008

NoName, the superdelegate system was created after the huge McGovern loss to try to prevent what actually might happen again in the democrat party. They didn't trust "the masses" to choose an electable candidate and instituted a failsafe system whereby they could overrule the masses votes in order to actually win.

Those are the democrat party rules just like the recent rule to kick out Florida and Michigan delegates.

Who knows what the supers will do.

Sent by deek | 2:50 PM ET | 04-22-2008

you "kick out" people who are already hey deek, in. mi and fla dem party leaders "scrd the pooch" before any voting took place. their dels will be seated without voting power most likely. not a recent rule.

you have the history of the supers bout right (even a blind chicken finds a bit of corn -- german proverb). just questionable whether its appropriate for a party with democratic as its adjective. (BTW if you persist with the silly "ic" tic we are gonna have to get the repugnican hammer out to even the playing field. now play nice and find a more elegant way to insult people)

Sent by tim in exile | 6:30 PM ET | 04-22-2008

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