NPR: How to Get To 270 Big Question for Superdelegates

How to Get To 270 Big Question for Superdelegates

Speculation on how to get 270 Electoral College votes has become one of the most important questions in determining who superdelegates might support. The Clinton campaign says "Back Clinton because she can win Ohio and Pennsylvania." Obama people counter with "Yes, but we can take Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa."

Earlier this week, NBC's First Read offered its version, with scenarios for Clinton, Obama and McCain.

When pollster Peter Brown from Quinnipiac University was here this week, The News Blog asked him about the "270" road map. He offered some interesting options.

Last election, President Bush won with 286 electoral votes. Ohio, with 20 its votes, was the key to his victory. It's one of the big three -- Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Since 1960 every candidate has needed to win two out of three of these states to win the presidency. Bush won Ohio and Florida, Sen. John Kerry won Pennsylvania.

But let's say all the states stay the same color, Brown mused, but the Democrats win Ohio. That would leave the Democrats with 272 votes, and McCain with 266 votes. The other state the GOP could use to put them over the top is Wisconsin - it was very close last election and there were allegations of voter fraud on election day. If it switched, McCain can win with 276 to 262.

But Brown also says the state that was red last election most likely to go blue this election is Iowa, with seven electoral votes. If Iowa switches, its 269 to 269 - a tie! Hello Democratically controlled House.

Oh, the combinations!

Here is Project Vote Smart's list of states and electoral votes. How do you see the vote breaking down? Could Obama take Virginia and New Mexico? Could McCain take Michigan or Wisconsin? What VP candidates could help determine the map?

The clock is ticking. Get out your pen and paper and start calculating ...

4:47 PM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink

Comments

The article suggests that which party has the majority in the House will be able to pick there candidate in a tied electoral vote. By the 12'th Amendment, each state delegation in the House gets one vote, and only that vote if there is a majority. If we have a handful of states with an even split of congressional representatives, we could see a very protracted deadlock that could be broken only by picking someone acceptable to both parties.

Sent by Kevin L. | 6:24 PM ET | 04-04-2008

What other nerds are doing this on a Friday afternoon? Give McCain Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and even Kansas no problem - but Obama has to then take Virginia, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Or, obviously some trades have to occur along the way. One would hope a popular Senator from Illinois could rally surrounding states.

Sent by APR_SF | 7:20 PM ET | 04-04-2008

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