Is Barack Obama the New George McGovern?
No offense to former Sen. George McGovern, but it's fair to say that no Democratic presidential candidate wants to be compared to him.
But in an article for The New Republic, writer John Judis says that the coalition of voters who support Obama is looking more and more like the one that supported McGovern in 1972.
Indeed, if you look at Obama's vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the '70s and '80s, led by college students and minorities. In Pennsylvania, Obama did best in college towns (60 to 40 percent in Penn State's Centre County) and in heavily black areas like Philadelphia.Its ideology is very liberal. Whereas in the first primaries and caucuses, Obama benefited from being seen as middle-of-the-road or even conservative, he is now receiving his strongest support from voters who see themselves as "very liberal." In Pennsylvania, he defeated Clinton among "very liberal" voters by 55 to 45 percent, but lost "somewhat conservative" voters by 53 to 47 percent and moderates by 60 to 40 percent. In Wisconsin and Virginia, by contrast, he had done best against Clinton among voters who saw themselves as moderate or somewhat conservative.
But Jonathan Chait, who blogs at The New Republic's "The Plank" says his colleague is off-target.
John's assumption that a candidate's primary base will be the same as his general election base strikes me as seriously flawed. If Hillary Clinton wins the nomination, will her electoral base consist of blue-collar whites? No, it will be highly similar to Obama's, with a major reliance on minorities and white liberals. As my colleague Chris Orr has just burst into my office to point out -- don't be alarmed, he does this several times a day -- right now Obama is having a hard time winning blue collar whites on the economy in large part because he has an opponent with a virtually identical economic platform. When he has an opponent who's tethered himself to President Bush's highly unpopular economic policies, winning over blue collar whites on the economy will get a lot easier. Extrapolating from primary dynamics to general election dynamics is very dicey business.
This is the same point that Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center made Tuesday night on a Talk of the Nation special.
Chait also goes on to point out that if you look at the numbers for Obama and Clinton in the general election match-up against Sen. John McCain, Obama continues to do better than Clinton, "... after several weeks when Obama suffered his worst two moments of the campaign, and the Republicans have been concentrating all their fire on him."
10:30 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink

