NPR: It's All About the Numbers in Pennsylvania

It's All About the Numbers in Pennsylvania

No matter how many ways you look at it, it still comes down to what the superdelegates will decide to do. That's because for all the stories about "bitter" small town residents of Pennsylvania, or the atmospherics of knocking back beers with locals, or connections to 60s radicals, none of it changes the actual math. And the math is brutal for Sen. Hillary Clinton.

And as Bloomberg News points out, the math says it is almost impossible for Sen. Clinton to catch Sen. Obama in either pledged delegates or popular vote.

"After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him.
"Clinton needs blowout numbers,'' says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with either campaign. "The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.'"

Clinton's best hope to sway superdelegates is a possible win in the popular vote. But even that is going to be difficult, as Bloomberg points out "... Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon -- a prospect that's not at all certain."

One reason that prospect is uncertain is that Obama has a enormous money advantage over Clinton in the primaries.

The New York Times reports that Clinton really needs a double-digit victory to make a big dent in Obama's popular vote total. But if he only gets a mid-single digit win, it "might not be impressive enough to claim fresh momentum, but it would likely be sufficient for her to continue limping around the primary track."

NPR's Nancy Cook reports that if the margin of victory is only in the low- to middle- single digits, Obama could claim a "moral victory, and that would leave the situation "muddled as ever."

And it all still leads back to the superdelegates.

Both camps picked up superdelegates over the weekend. The Obama camp is the first one out of the chute this morning: Ohio superdelegate and DNC member Enid Goubeaux is now on record for Obama.

12:27 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink

E-mail this Page

Recipient's e-mail address:	» Up to twelve addresses, separated by commas.
Your e-mail address:
Your name:
Personal message (optional, 600 characters max):
Your NPR member station:
Are you a member of your local NPR station?	Yes No
Would you like to receive information from your local NPR member station? (see NPR's privacy policy)	Yes No
Please send me updates from NPR.	Yes No

(Information collected by NPR will be used solely for internal NPR or NPR member station purposes and only if you selected 'yes' above. See NPR's privacy policy for more information.)

Tom Regan

Blogger

About Us

This year's election cycle has been one of the most exciting in memory. At the NPR News Blog we'll do our best to bring you interesting, informative -- and controversial -- stories from our own reporters and bloggers, as well as the rest of the best of the Internet and blogosphere. And we hope you'll let us know what you think as well.

Want to learn more? Be sure to read our Frequently Asked Questions and our discussion guidelines.