Pennsylvania Vote Depends on Several Factors
The closer we get to the actual Pennsylvania primary, the more it seems that no one can really predict how the actual voting will go.
For instance, the Boston Globe reports that "later-deciders" could really help Sen. Hillary Clinton.
"If the pattern of previous primaries and caucuses holds, the biggest procrastinators - those who make up their minds on Tuesday - will probably break for Senator Hillary Clinton. If they side with her again in Pennsylvania, it may help Clinton hold off Senator Barack Obama with a big-enough victory to save her candidacy, again."
But Obama has a couple of important factors that could break his way.
Young voters in Pennsylvania could go big for Obama and neutralize the "late-decider." (Witness the spontaneous Obama "parade" through Philadelphia of about 5000 mostly younger Obama supporters after his speech to 35,000 people Friday night.) But as Reuters asks, will they turn out to vote?
"The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, or CIRCLE, which has tracked youth voting since the U.S. voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972, says this year has seen the highest national registration rate in history among those under 30 ...
"[But] In every presidential election since 1972, turnout by citizens under 30 in Pennsylvania was slightly below the national average for young voters and lagged behind that of older voters. In 2004, 47 percent of young Pennsylvanians, and 68 percent of those over 30, went to the polls, according to CIRCLE."
The most important factor for Obama, however, could be women. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that "Allegiances are shifting, and affiliations based on gender and race are weakening ...," mostly in favor or Obama.
"In the latest Quinnipiac University poll, released Tuesday, Clinton held steady with Pennsylvania women with 54 percent of the vote, compared with 40 percent for Obama. In a poll two months ago, however, Obama had only 34 percent of the women's vote in Pennsylvania."
"It's not that she's losing supporters, but he's picking up strength, especially among white women," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
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UPDATE: One indication of how these difference groups can affect polling results, two new polls how how wide the spread can be depending upon who the pollsters reach.
Earlier today we reported that a Mason-Dixon poll had Clinton ahead by 5%. A new Zogby Daily Tracking Pennsylvania poll shows Clinton ahead by only three points. It has a +/- of 4.1 percent. But a poll by the GOP polling firm Strategic Vision shows Clinton ahead by nine points.
10:40 AM ET | 04-20-2008 | permalink
