NPR: Polls Shows Obama Better at Retaining Democrats

Polls Shows Obama Better at Retaining Democrats

Polls are like the weather. If you don't like what you see, wait a couple of days and something new will come along. Sometimes you only have to wait a few hours.

Late yesterday Zogby released a poll that finds almost the exact opposite of the AP-Ipsos poll which showed Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 9-point lead over Sen. John McCain. The Zogby poll shows McCain with a 10-point lead over Clinton 44%-34% (with 16 percent undecided). But he trails Sen. Barack Obama by three points, 45%-42% (with 8 percent undecided).

But it's the surrounding details that are interesting. For instance, in the McCain-Clinton battle Ralph Nader and Bob Barr received 3% and 4% respectively. But in the Obama-McCain matchup, Nader drops to 1% and Barr to 3%.

Even more interesting, the poll puts a twist on previous polls that have shown that more Clinton supporters would vote for McCain if Obama was the nominee than vice-versa.

The online poll, conducted April 25-28, 2008, shows that Obama retains 80% support among Democrats, compared to just 66% of Democrats who said they will back Clinton against McCain, the survey shows. Against Obama, McCain wins 11% of the Democratic support, while he wins 10% support against Clinton. [This would seem to indicate than many Democrats just won't vote --or might voter for Nader -- if In the McCain-Clinton race, 12% of Democrats said they were undecided, compared to just 4% of Democrats who were undecided in the McCain-Obama race.

The survey included 7,653 likely voters nationwide. Zogby uses interactive online polls, which some experts say aren't as reliable as operator-based phone calls to respondents, but Zogby believes otherwise. Zogby says there is only a +/- of 1.1% on the poll.

7:30 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink

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On Rev. Wrights comments at the National Press Club.

Again, the danger in Rev. Wrights comments lie in his unwillingness to differentiate between culture and race. The statement that, "Black worship is different from European and European-American worship," is a racist statement. It implies that all blacks worship in a certain way, simply because they are compelled to, because the are black. No significance is given to individual cultural heritage. In doing so, he denies to blacks the ability to act in any manner inconsistent with his preconceived notions of how blacks WILL act, in this case relative to their worship practices. This notion is the philosophical foundation of racism. It validates the racist notion that one CAN know how someone will behave in ANY situation based solely upon their race. It would be an enlightening and inclusive moment for Rev. Wright to recognize and acknowledge that his congregation worships in a manner consistent with the culture of his community. Instead he chooses to be divisive by characterizing the actions of his congregation as those inherent to black people. This is racism in it's most insidious form in that he has been able to convince his audience that there is actually something to be gained from this notion.

Sent by Jon | 7:53 AM ET | 04-29-2008

I've been saying that the exit polls showing that more Clinton voters will switch to McCain if she is not the nominee have been flawed because they never included Nader or other voting options.

Most of the Clinton voters are moderate, older and less educated. I can see where these voters would be comfortable voting for McCain.

On the flip side, Obama's voters are liberal, younger and more educated. His voters are far less likely to vote for McCain but I can see many, like myself, voting for Nader.

This poll seems to prove that the exit polling question about this was indeed flawed.

Sent by Kevin, PA | 10:35 AM ET | 04-29-2008

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