NPR: Quinnipiac Poll Numbers A Boost for Clinton

Quinnipiac Poll Numbers A Boost for Clinton

For almost 50 years, if you want to get elected president of the United States, you needed to win two of three states: Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Only John Kennedy bucked the tide -- his opponent, Richard Nixon won Ohio and Florida.

So if you're a Sen. Hillary Clinton supporter, you'll be pleased about a poll released today by Quinnipiac University. It shows that in a match up with Sen. John McCain, Clinton wins all three states over McCain, and does much better than Sen. Barack Obama in all three.

Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute talked with Ken Rudin and Neil Conan on Talk of the Nation today and with the News Blog.

In Florida, Clinton leads McCain by two points, 44% to 42%. But McCain leads Obama 46% to 37%. In Ohio, Clinton has a 48% to 39 % lead over McCain, while Obama leads McCain by one point, 43% to 42%. In Pennsylvania, Clinton tops McCain 48% to 40 % while Obama leads him 43% to 39%

In Florida, Brown says, the difference is white voters. The pollsters also found that 20% of white Democrats over all said they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee, as opposed to 10% who will switch if Clinton runs for the Democrats.

In the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, in a survey of 1549 likely Democratic voters, Quinnipiac found that Clinton leads Obama 49% to 40%. Obama has narrowed Clinton's lead, but Brown says the question now is can he "seal the deal."

"Is Pennsylvania going to be like Ohio or New Jersey, where Obama cut Clinton's lead down, but wasn't able to close that final gap? Or will it be like South Carolina or Wisconsin where he overcame huge Clinton leads to win? That's what the next three weeks will tell us."

3:54 PM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink

Comments

As an Obama supporter in rural Ohio, I believe Rev. Wright's remarks and subsequent coverage have had a more drastic effect than perceived by national media, shattering a belief or hope among many rural whites that Barack could indeed transcend race. I'm hearing doubt and backtracking among local Obama supporters. Fair? No. Real? Yep.

Sent by Stephen Mulluc | 4:19 PM ET | 04-02-2008

As a Florida voter, I can tell you that the vote for McCain over Obama is very real for Floridians. I am dumbfounded that the Democrat party would throw out our votes from January 29th and then expect us to back them in November. Obama did nothing to bring Florida and Michigan back into play. He keeps hiding behind the "rules", but ran ads here despite the "no campaigning" agreement. He has truly offended many Florida democrats and independents. Anything he does now will be too little, too late.

Sent by sunshine voter | 4:45 PM ET | 04-02-2008

Obama's just another polititian. He'll fight to uphold the rules when they work in his favor.

Sent by Susan | 5:06 PM ET | 04-02-2008

The wheels on the bus keep falling off, falling off, falling off, the wheels on the bus keep falling off all through the town.

Sent by deek | 5:15 PM ET | 04-02-2008

Abolish the two parties!

Sent by Jody Sol | 5:17 PM ET | 04-02-2008

To Sunshine Voter,
Is it really fair to change the rules mid-game, though? I ask this question as a voter equally willing to accept Clinton or Obama as the nominee, so I'm not taking sides here. It just seems that Obama is taking the heat for what was actually a goofy move on the part of Florida's and Michigan's state election officials and an excessive punishment on the part of the DNC. I thought it was odd when folks started talking about reversing rules.

Also, it's not a matter of backing the Democrat party in November -- isn't it a matter of backing your own beliefs and interests? That is, if you are a voter who wants to get out of Iraq, have universal health care, and move forward with other progressive policies, it doesn't make sense to vote against the DNC and Obama, no matter how unhappy you are with them. That would be voting against a broad number of your own interests, your own beliefs, just to make one point. (And I still think the state officials who moved the primary up should take the heat for this anyway.)

Sent by Michelle | 5:26 PM ET | 04-02-2008

I would remind sunshine voter that Clinton did nothing to bring FL or MI back into play either until she realized she couldn't win without them. She agreed to the rules just like everyone else, until it was inconvenient for her.

Sent by Sallie | 8:30 AM ET | 04-03-2008

Most people show their tax returns to finance their home. And Hillary trying to be president, has to this day refused to show hers, and keeps playing games. Is this some sort of real live animal kingdom, we are all witnessing?. I guess she thinks she is "superior" to everyone else.

Sent by Christy | 1:49 PM ET | 04-03-2008

"you needed to win two of three states: Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida."

1) I note that the wording here is "you needed" and NOT "ALL you needed".

2) Are there other states that can lay claim to importance - that they have voted for winners each time?

Come next year, Hilly, Billy and Chelsy will pin their big wins on their wall and nurse their wounds on a freud's couch while they watch the new tenant in the White House.
So much for the dreams of a (political) dynasty.

Sent by chokora | 2:33 PM ET | 04-03-2008

Stephen Mulluc in rural Ohio:
"I believe Rev. Wright's remarks and subsequent coverage have had a more drastic effect "

Now, Stephen, you are a fair man - the salt of the earth.
Do you similarly believe that Pastor Hagee's remarks should have a huge bearing on Sen McCain's candidacy?

Do you believe that the pastor's remarks should receive wide coverage?

Feel free to rationalize your bias to your heart's content.

Sent by chokora | 2:39 PM ET | 04-03-2008

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