NPR: Clinton Campaign Goes Hard After Superdelegates

Clinton Campaign Goes Hard After Superdelegates

Sen. Barack Obama may be picking up the majority of superdelegates recently, but that doesn't mean that the Clinton campaign is giving up.

A few minutes ago the Clinton campaign sent to reporters a copy of an e-mail that they are sending to superdelegates (for some reason the Clinton camp calls them "automatic" delegates). The e-mail quotes a lot of recent polling data that argues that Clinton would be the best candidate to take on Republican presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain.

Some of it you've probably already heard this morning: the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll and the CBS/New York Times poll. Both show Clinton doing very well against McCain.

Perhaps the most persuasive part of their argument could be the new polling data from Quinnipiac. It shows that Clinton would beat McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, while Obama would only beat McCain in Pennsylvania.

Here is the text of the message:

To: Automatic Delegates
From: Harold Ickes
Date: May 1, 2008

RE: HRC Strongest v. McCain

A spate of new public polls out this week confirms what we have been arguing for some time: Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate to beat John McCain in November.

The data shows that Clinton not only outperforms Obama in head-to-head matchups, but is also stronger in the all important subcategories that serve as bellwethers for a candidate's overall strength. In addition, new data out today in three swing states vital to Democratic prospects in November show Clinton beating McCain.

HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH MCCAIN: In a hypothetical general election match-up with McCain, Clinton wins handily (50-41) while Obama is virtually tied with McCain (46-44), according to the AP-Ipsos poll released Monday. A new poll from CBS/NYT show Clinton beating McCain by five points (48-43), while Obama ties McCain (45-45). The new Fox poll has Clinton beating McCain by one point (45-44), while Obama trails McCain by three points (43-46). And in Gallup's daily tracking poll, Clinton leads McCain by one point (46-45) while Obama trails McCain by two points (44-46).

SWING STATES: New Quinnipiac polls out today show Clinton dramatically outperforms Obama in the critical swing states of Ohio in Florida. In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain by ten points (48-38), while Obama loses to him by one point (43-44). In Florida, Clinton beats McCain by 8 (49-41), while Obama loses to him by one point (42-43). Hillary also tops McCain by 14 points in Pennsylvania (51-37), while Obama's lead over McCain is in single digits.

CLINTON BEATS MCCAIN AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS; OBAMA TIES HIM: The new AP poll has Clinton leading McCain among independents (50-34) while Obama is tied with him (42-42). The NBC/WSJ poll notes that Obama's negative ratings among independents are they highest they have ever been.

CLINTON IS THE CANDIDATE VOTERS TRUST WITH THE ECONOMY: The economy is the top issue among voters and is likely to remain so through November. In the CBS/NYT poll, Hillary beat both Obama and McCain as the candidate who is talking about the economy most by a margin of 25% to Obama's 13% and McCain's 7%.

OBAMA UNFAVORABLES RISING QUICKLY: In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama's unfavorables increased by ten points in the last month (24 to 34%) while his favorables decreased by four points. In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama's unfavorables among independents rose to 31%. The Fox poll shows that in the last two months, Obama's unfavorables have increased by nine points (33 to 42%) while his favorables decreased by seven points (54 to 47%). In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Obama's negative ratings increased by five points in the last month (32 to 37%) while his positive ratings decreased by three points in the last month (49 to 46%).

CLINTON STRONGEST AMONG SWING VOTING BLOCS: The new AP-Ipsos poll shows Clinton leading McCain among seniors (51-39) but has McCain BEATING Obama (49-38). She runs stronger against McCain with those under 30 than Obama does, pulling two-thirds of the young vote while Obama gets 55% against McCain. And she wins the Catholic vote against McCain (58-35) while McCain beats Obama (46-43).

1:32 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink

Comments (Send a comment)

this is all because nobody is talking about hillary-she is done-if she were the nominee in the fall, all of that dirty laundry that has been rummaged through will hit the fan and so will her chances of becoming president. superdel's, don't listen to her.

Sent by jen | 1:39 PM ET | 05-01-2008

If this information is accurate, this is very strong logic for Clinton to cement her case for the Democratic Nomination...that is, if logic is exercised in the selection process...if not, then we can look forward to McCain as President in November...since he is the apparent second choice as shown in these polls.

Sent by ard | 1:41 PM ET | 05-01-2008

When Clinton and all of her attacks on Obama are out of the race, then Obama's numbers will look better. His declining numbers are just as much her fault as anything else. If he loses in November, you can blame Hillary Rodham Clinton!

Sent by Tim | 1:57 PM ET | 05-01-2008

"Polls are like the weather. If you don't like what you see, wait a couple of days and something new will come along. Sometimes you only have to wait a few hours."

Polls mean nothing. They are highly select data mining that are often skewed based on the questions that are asked. Many of them are done by telephone polling (how many of those have you hung up on when trying to eat dinner?). The polls are so volatile I don't know how anyone can put any kind of credible faith in them for accuracy.

"since he is the apparent second choice as shown in these polls." That's because the polls were asking two different scenarios, who would you vote for if this canidate were to win. I am not sure if you misunderstood the poll structure or just want to try and put more spin on a somewhat sad angle already.

Sent by James Cutler | 2:05 PM ET | 05-01-2008

Hillary had, the name recognition, the money, the associations and goodwill of the party infrastructure.Key power brokers in the party who she, her husband and some foot soldiers had helped put in place, had over 4 years to start her campaign. She still screwed it up. Obama had to take on this uphill task to get to where he is without any of her advantages and did it in 15mths. He has shown himself to be just a very capable person period. His handling of the Wright crisis is just a window of his capability (softpower shown in humility, patience, and assertiveness when appropriate). Most candidates confronted with such crisis would have called it quits.

Sent by Ty | 2:08 PM ET | 05-01-2008

"the most persuasive part of their argument .."

Speak for yourself.

'Persuasive' to me?
Not really. Just curious gasps from a desperate, sinking campaign.

"Bold Deceit and Bizarre Logic" / Hillary '08, WRONG for America

Sent by chokora | 2:14 PM ET | 05-01-2008

I wonder if President McCain will pardon the Denver rioters?

Sent by deek | 2:20 PM ET | 05-01-2008

Clinton has these numbers with almost NO opposition. The Republicans are not challenging her, McCain is not challenging her, Obama has just barely challenged her, Rush Limbaugh's idiots are voting FOR her. The only story the media went after her on was the Bosnia thing. There is a closet full of swiftboaterie that the Right will pull out if she is the nominee. They WANT her to be the nominee because they think they can beat her.

McCain, too, is getting an easy ride from the Democrats right now, and he's got the media smiling and nodding at him. Obama, on the other hand, has already been taking it relentlessly from all sides and still has strong numbers. I think the Republicans are terrified of him.

I actually think either Dem would beat McCain, but I'm just saying these numbers make for a flimsy argument against nominating Obama.

Sent by Michelle | 2:22 PM ET | 05-01-2008

This makes no difference because McCain hasn't been actively campaigning in Ohio or Pennsylvania. The poll really doesn't say much of anything.

It's just lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Sent by P. Shears | 2:34 PM ET | 05-01-2008

One problem with polls about the November contest is that the candidates haven't run their campaigns yet. A lot can change after months of campaigning. It really doesn't matter how people think they would vote today. It is how they feel on the first Tuesday in November that counts. I would suggest that the considerable recent movement of voters toward Obama is significant and likely to continue.

Sent by Gary | 2:34 PM ET | 05-01-2008

Too bad for her that she can't travel to November 2008 and return with similar poll data. As it stands, this is still so early in the season that it's practically worthless. No one has seen an Obama v. McCain campaign in any of these states yet.

Sent by Sweetie | 2:36 PM ET | 05-01-2008

Have the polls during this campaign EVER correctly predicted future behavior?

Sent by Randy | 2:41 PM ET | 05-01-2008

"I don't care which one gets the nomination, just as long as they beat McCain in November!"

Is this REALLY how you want to choose your president? Why talk about issues?
Why have a position on ...(anything).

You people REALLY NEED to wise up!!!
These people are going to be making your decisions FOR YOU, for the next 4 years.

Harold Ickes vs Karl Rove
(what's the difference?)

Sent by Harold | 2:48 PM ET | 05-01-2008

It's not about "beating " your opponent. There are no opponents, only Americans. This petty in-fighting between the liberals and conservatives is an embarrassment and a shame on us all.

While we sit around fighting and arguing over whose ideology should be imposed on our people, people are dieing, starving, murdered ,so that we can sit here in shelter and pretend that the world as we know it is not on the precipice.

Wake up people. WAKE UP.

Sent by Jody Sol | 2:49 PM ET | 05-01-2008

I wonder if Deek will eat his words? Now...now the right wing will learn what a Democratic Congress and an adult in the White House can do.

Will the conservatives ever be allowed to gain a snippet of power again?

Sent by James Cutler | 2:50 PM ET | 05-01-2008

It's her temporary post-PA bounce. It won't last. Shame on her.

Sent by P. Shears | 3:01 PM ET | 05-01-2008

Looks like I'm inside someone elses OODA loop now.

Sent by deek | 3:59 PM ET | 05-01-2008

I am all for polling but if polls decided the democratic nomination then why do we spend the time and the money to have citizen's register and vote? Polls mean nothing if I do not know the sample size and the make-up of the participants. This could be a poll that is heavily favored pro-Clinton supporters which would not be a reliable source for me to make a judgment. I hate to say it but I feel so let down with all of these polls that tell me nothing of how a candidate stands on issues that could potentially influence my life. Also, polls aside Sen. Clinton is behind in the pop. and delegate votes and losing her lead in super-delegates. There should be a poll done to understand this trend as well.

Sent by Grace | 4:04 PM ET | 05-01-2008

Grace 05-01-2008 wrote:
"..Polls mean nothing if I do not know the sample size and the make-up of the participants. .."

TRUE.

There is also another critical factor: You must know the questions asked and the words that were used.
You have heard that words can have nuances that may elicit certain responses/reactions - often subconsciously. For instance - and on a lighter note - we are led to believe that a poll in Pennsylvania may yield different results depending on whether the word "angry" is used instead of "bitter".

Sent by fukara | 4:47 AM ET | 05-02-2008

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