NPR: New Poll Shows Big Lead for Obama in N.C.

New Poll Shows Big Lead for Obama in N.C.

A new daily tracking poll by Zogby International shows that Sen. Barack Obama seems to have regained his footing in North Carolina, and is giving his rival Sen. Hillary Clinton a run for her money in Indiana.

The poll, conducted with live operators, of 668 likely Democratic voters in North Carolina showed Obama with a 50% to 34% lead. A similar survey of 680 Indiana voters showed the two candidates tied at 42% each -- but with 16% saying they still have to make up their minds.

Here is the breakdown of the North Carolina polls:

"Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina--47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well--winning 44% support to Clinton's 37% backing."

And likewise for Indiana:

"Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama's hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women."

Here's how they conducted the poll (readers have been asking to see more about how these polls are done):

Zogby International commissioned a telephone survey of [Likely Democratic Primary Voters].
Approximately [30] questions are asked. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased voter registration lists. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR's approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.

Indiana N=680 MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender

North Carolina N=668 MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender

6:50 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink

Comments

Double Plus Good! Great Leader will vanquish all in his path. Even the very Sun will bow to the power of Great Leader. The Movement will be in Double Plus Good high spirits today.

Onward into the Glorious New Era!

Sent by deek | 9:07 AM ET | 05-02-2008

You can always count on someone to be a giant deek.

Sent by Bob | 11:12 AM ET | 05-02-2008

Zogby has been pretty reliable. I trust these numbers more then most.

Sent by Kevin, PA | 11:15 AM ET | 05-02-2008

It's sad that the votes are so clearly split along race and gender lines. I support Obama because I believe he's the better candidtate - or do I? Maybe it's just because I'm a man.

Would the numbers be different if every Democrat seriously considered questions like this one?

Sent by Sean O | 11:33 AM ET | 05-02-2008

LOL, Bob. Nice observation.

Sent by deek | 12:10 PM ET | 05-02-2008

Sean O, I support Obama because I believe he's the better candidate, and I am a 30 something white female. Not exactly his demographic. But I am impressed by his integrity and dismayed that the first viable female candidate for the presidency turned out to be who she has shown herself as in the last couple of months. I will vote for Hillary in the GE if I have to, but I won't be happy about it, much as I would love to see a woman be president.

Sent by Jenn | 12:18 PM ET | 05-02-2008

Hey deek - pretty funny, I'll have to admit. I think we both know that polls don't mean nearly as much as we want them to. Left and right wing extremist aside, the middle America behind Obama is pretty clear that it is going to take a long time to get out of the mess our current president has guided us into. The interest on the astronomical debt he has saddled America with will still have to be paid as we face a debt load never before known. This is certainly not going to be a "glorious new era" as the value of the dollar dives and America's influence in the world dives with it. Our squandered national wealth will not magically reappear. No, it will be a long and difficult path to repair the damage done by eight years of idiocy in national policy.

Sent by Gary | 12:58 PM ET | 05-02-2008

I take issue with those who say that 25% of Obama voters will not vote for Hillary, while some 33% of Hillary voters will bolt for McCain not. Obama voters are loyal democrats. There is segment of that working class constituency of Hillary's that will not even vote for her in the general election.Some of these NASCAR dads have been voting Republican for some time and have been hating the Clintons. Why should teh Democratic party care about them, they've been getting snookered in voting conservative when the Republicans were outsourcing their jobs. They've been sacrificing their self interest to feel good bashing liberals, "fureigners" and Islamofascists (Tomas Franks saw it happening in ""What's the Matter with Kansas. I say they are dwindling in number thanks to Republican policies so why worry about their views. Dems can win without them they did in 2000 and almost in 20004 even wit all the swiftboating and Kerry 's anemic reaction,

Sent by Platon Rigos | 4:28 PM ET | 05-02-2008

Jen, I agree with you totally. I am very dismayed as well by the first female that shows up to run on the Presidential ticket. A Democrat and person like Clinton. I dislike both of the Clinton's, I don't know what I will do if she gets in. I take this election very seriously because of the threat of terrorism more than the economy. Ms. Clinton is NOT the person for this job.

I am a Repub. and will vote that way. But Obama is pulling at me. He is very honest, and really has a heart for change. I think new blood is what we need.

Sent by Cindy | 4:34 PM ET | 05-03-2008

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