McCain Seeks Center-Right Voters, Annoying Conservatives

When George Bush ran for president in 2000 and 2004, he and Karl Rove, his political guru, had a very definite election plan that featured getting as many conservatives as possible to the polls.

But the Washington Times reports that Sen. John McCain knows that this strategy won't work for him, so he has taken a completely different route - trying to pick up as many independents and right-wing Democrats (the return of Reagan Democrats?) as he can.

"This time, we are working to get a larger share than normal of independents and conservative Democrats, mainly because our own base is narrower than four years ago," said McCain campaign senior adviser Charles Black, who has been a part of every GOP presidential campaign since Ronald Reagan's nomination run in 1976 ....

Noting there are more Democrats and independents up for grabs than in recent elections, Frank J. Donatelli, the Republican National Committee's deputy chairman, says Mr. McCain needs a center-right coalition to win, just as the Democrat will need a center-left coalition. "We intend to beat them to the center," he said.

This strategy has some dangers, the Times reports. His more centrist positions on some issues will "inevitably will rub orthodox conservatives the wrong way and worsen his relations with them."

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times reports that supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul don't look all that eager to switch their support to McCain. (Paul is still officially running for president, don't forget.)

Continue reading "McCain Seeks Center-Right Voters, Annoying Conservatives" »

9:27 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post

 

Brit Paper Picks 50 Most Influential Pundits

Toby Harnden, the U.S. editor/reporter/blogger for Britain's The Daily Telegraph has put together a list of the 50 most influential pundits in the United States. This kind of stuff is often inside baseball, and the only people who really care about it are the pundits themselves. (Helps in contract talks.) You might call it an ordering of the usual suspects.

The Telegraph described their list this way:

As with our previous lists of the 100 most influential conservatives and the 100 most influential liberals, we leaned towards those with the most potential to influence events over the coming months rather than simply the stalwarts of past years -- though many on our list fall into both categories.

While being opinionated did not guarantee consideration, having strong opinions was a key factor. Many important journalists have been left out because they portray themselves as objective and seek to inform rather than persuade.

(Inform rather than persuade? ... what a concept!)

The most influential pundit? Karl Rove according to the Telegraph. (Point of order, your honor. Is Mr. Rove really a pundit? Or just a former political guru in-between consulting gigs?)

But let's make our own list. Which "pundit" influences your opinion the most? Or to boldly go where the Telegraph feared to tread, are there journalists or commentators who you believe aren't just trying to persuade you, but to help you make up your own mind? (The News Blog casts votes for Ron Elving and Ken Rudin.)

9:00 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Indianapolis Star Endorses Clinton

Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up an important endorsement today from the Indianapolis Star, Indiana's largest newspaper. While the paper's editorial board praised both Clinton and her rival Sen. Barack Obama, board members felt that Clinton' experience was the deciding factor.

Obama offers an attractive vision for the way things could be. He speaks eloquently of hope and change. He connects with voters, many who formerly felt disenfranchised, on a level few political leaders have attained.

Clinton offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are. She offers nuanced positions on how to address the war in Iraq, trade with China and economic expansion. Her depth of knowledge is remarkable.

As impressive as Obama appears, he is still in his first term in the U.S. Senate, and only four years ago was serving as an Illinois state senator. His inexperience in high office is a liability.

Clinton, in contrast, is well prepared for the rigors of the White House. She is tough, experienced and realistic about what can and cannot be accomplished on the world stage.

The paper did say that Clinton had done more pandering to voters, particularly on the gas tax holiday idea. And the board pointed out that she was a part of her husband's "political machine, which earned a reputation for flattening opponents. That factor understandably gives many voters pause about whether another Clinton should serve as president."

But the paper went with Clinton because it sees America and the world in a tough place and that Clinton "is the better choice, based on her experience and grasp of major issues, to confront those challenges."

8:15 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

New Poll Shows Big Lead for Obama in N.C.

A new daily tracking poll by Zogby International shows that Sen. Barack Obama seems to have regained his footing in North Carolina, and is giving his rival Sen. Hillary Clinton a run for her money in Indiana.

The poll, conducted with live operators, of 668 likely Democratic voters in North Carolina showed Obama with a 50% to 34% lead. A similar survey of 680 Indiana voters showed the two candidates tied at 42% each -- but with 16% saying they still have to make up their minds.

Here is the breakdown of the North Carolina polls:

"Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina--47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well--winning 44% support to Clinton's 37% backing."

And likewise for Indiana:

"Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama's hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women."

Here's how they conducted the poll (readers have been asking to see more about how these polls are done):

Zogby International commissioned a telephone survey of [Likely Democratic Primary Voters].

Approximately [30] questions are asked. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased voter registration lists. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR's approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.

Indiana N=680 MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender

North Carolina N=668 MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender

6:50 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Pelosi Says No Way to Gas Tax Holiday

Not to put too fine a point on it, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi more or less said to Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain today "You know what you can do with your gas tax holiday idea."

The Washington Post's The Trail blog reports that Pelosi said this afternoon that Congress will not consider an 18-cent gas tax holiday.

"There is no reason to believe any moratorium on the gas tax will be passed on to consumers. That's first and foremost," she said. "Second, it will defeat everything we've tried to do to lower the cost of oil," noting that Democrats have been trying to shift the nation to alternative fuel sources, not promote gasoline consumption.

That puts the kibosh on that. Clinton says she will return to the Senate to introduce her measure and that she'll have several co-sponsors. But without support in the House, it's all window dressing.

9:07 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Pew Poll Shows Obama, Clinton Both Beating McCain

Sen. Barack Obama is losing support among white-working class Democrats at an alarming speed. But his popularity with independents helps him make up lost ground. In a national poll of Democrats by the Pew Research Center, reported on All Things Considered, Obama leads Clinton 47% to 45% (although a month ago it was 49% to 39% for Obama).

But unlike other recent polls, the Pew poll shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain - Obama 50% to McCain 44% and Clinton 49% to McCain's 45%.

The president of the Pew Research Center, Andrew Kohut, told NPR's Robert Siegel that the Illinois senator's "slippage [is] powered by an even greater role of both race and class in the patterns of the answers."

"For instance, Clinton's lead among white Democrats who did not attend college rose from 10 points in March to 40 points in the current survey, which was based on phone interviews of 651 people from April 23-27. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points."

But Clinton has her problems too. She has made gains but the poll doesn't show that her image has improved in the eyes of voters. "In fact, in some respects, her image is worse than it was when she was 10 points behind," Kohut says.

The advantage that Clinton has among white working class voters is matched by Obama's popularity among African-Americans, college-educated workers and independents. Among black voters, Kohut says, Clinton's number resemble the kind of support -- or lack thereof -- that Republicans get from that community these days.

8:26 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post

 

N.C. Attorney General Says WVWV Robocalls Illegal

A charity organization with ties to Hillary Clinton has come under criticism for running apparently illegal robo-calls in advance of next week's hotly contested Democratic primary in North Carolina. The group, Women's Voices Women Vote, says it's just trying to get single women registered to vote.

Last week, this automated robo-call went out in North Carolina.

"Hello. This is Lamont Williams. In the next few days, you will receive a voter registration packet in the mail. All you need to do is fill it out, sign it, date and return the application. Then you will be able to vote and make your voice heard. Please return your registration form when it arrives. Thank you."

But the deadline to register for the primary had already passed. And the call went to many registered voters -- people who already were expecting to vote in the presidential primary next Tuesday. The call and follow up mailings made many wonder whether they were registered for the primary or not.

This sounds like a classic example of voter suppression -- sowing confusion and driving down turn-out. And these calls seemed to be aimed at African American communities, places where Barack Obama is expected to win easily.

The group behind the calls is Women's Voices Women Vote. It's a 501-c-3 charity, and the robo-calls seem completely at odds with the group's usual, upbeat message.

Continue reading "N.C. Attorney General Says WVWV Robocalls Illegal" »

5:46 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Carter Hails Obama's Ability to "Transform Image of U.S."

This one sort of escaped much notice here in America.

Toby Harnden, the Washington-based reporter and blogger for England's The Daily Telegraph, has a rather interesting interview with former President Jimmy Carter that was published in the paper on Tuesday. In the interview, Carter (who hasn't 'officially' endorsed anyone yet) spoke glowingly of Sen. Barack Obama, and called on the party to decide on a winner by June 3rd.

"I don't see any reason at all to continue after June 3rd when we know who got the most [pledged] delegates, who got the most popular votes, who won the most states and so forth," said Carter, 83.

As Harnden writes, he even "sketched out the kind of inaugural address the first black United States president could deliver."

"If the first statement he made was while I'm president of the United States we will never torture another prisoner and while I'm President of the United States we will never go to war unless our own security is directly threatened...it would transform the image of the United States in the minds of many people around the world.

Carter, who is on a promotional tour for his new book about his mother, Lillian Carter, said his mother would be "delighted" with a black president, but just "pleased" with a woman president.

Here is the transcript of the entire interview.

5:15 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Support Gas Tax Holiday Because of "Leadership"

It's been a particularly unpopular idea - the gas tax holiday. Economists across the political spectrum think it's a bad idea. Yet Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to push the idea. (Although it has changed a bit in the past few days; it's not longer a "gas tax holiday" it's 'let the oil companies pay the gas tax over the summer" -- an idea the experts also say won 't work.)

So why is Clinton so intent on pursuing this idea? Leadership.

(Although Sen. McCain had the "idea" first. At least this time -- it's been a popular position for Republicans to take whenever gas prices do rise.)

Earlier today during a conference call, when asked why she continues to back the idea when it lacks support, Clinton campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson explained it this way: ""We believe that the presidency requires leadership. There are times when a president will take a position that a broad consensus of quote unquote experts will agree with, and there are times when a president will do something that, the group of experts quote unquote does not agree with.

"And you know, this is something that Senator Clinton believes is the right policy...she believes it's the right policy in the short term to help consumers who are struggling, and she has, as I said, a very comprehensive plan to deal with this in the long term as well. And she's going to continue to talk about this and continue to push for it. And I understand that there may be some people who disagree with it and of course they're entitled to disagree with it. You know, this is something that Senator Clinton believes is important. And presidents listen to advice, get advice, and then, and then act. And that is what Senator Clinton is doing.""

Marc Ambinder makes a good point at theAtlantic.com about listening to the two camps conference calls today: like "dipping into parallel universes."

2:58 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Campaign Goes Hard After Superdelegates

Sen. Barack Obama may be picking up the majority of superdelegates recently, but that doesn't mean that the Clinton campaign is giving up.

A few minutes ago the Clinton campaign sent to reporters a copy of an e-mail that they are sending to superdelegates (for some reason the Clinton camp calls them "automatic" delegates). The e-mail quotes a lot of recent polling data that argues that Clinton would be the best candidate to take on Republican presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain.

Some of it you've probably already heard this morning: the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll and the CBS/New York Times poll. Both show Clinton doing very well against McCain.

Perhaps the most persuasive part of their argument could be the new polling data from Quinnipiac. It shows that Clinton would beat McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, while Obama would only beat McCain in Pennsylvania.

Here is the text of the message:

Continue reading "Clinton Campaign Goes Hard After Superdelegates" »

1:32 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (19) | e-mail post

 

Obama Has Good Day with Supers

Sen. Barack Obama's recent problems do not seem to be bothering superdelegates, if the past few days are any indication. Obama has picked up five more superdelegates today and seven votes.

That vote difference comes because the first announcement today came from Joe Andrew who was a Clinton super who is now switching his vote to Obama. That's a two-vote swing. Add one to Obama and take one way from Clinton at the same time.

Then the Chicago Sun-Times reports that Obama will pick up three more Illinois superdelegates next week at the party's state convention.

And the Obama campaign just sent out an e-mail announcing that "Texas DNC Member John Patrick, who is also a 31-year member of the United Steelworkers (USW) as well as a Vice President of the Texas AFL/CIO, brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama to 249." {It's likely the three Illinois delegates are not being counted yet.]

Clinton has not picked up any new superdelegates today.
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UPDATE: Clinton has one. From Connecticut. John Olsen, president of the Connecticut AFL-CIO and a super-delegate.

AND MORE: Hillary gets four more supers from New York: New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, former Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields, New York Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli and New York Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo.

That's five each today.

(Tom Note: Mick is right, it's six votes not seven for Obama.)

12:29 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

Senate: MCain is Absolutely, Positively an American

The News Blog covered this a few months ago when some conservative bloggers who didn't want to see Sen. John McCain as the Republican presidential nominee, were making noises about the fact that he was born in the Panama Canal Zone -- his father was stationed there -- and that meant he wasn't 'really' an American and thus couldn't run for president.

Codswallup. That's basically what the Senate said yesterday. The Senate passed a unanimous resolution affirming that McCain is indeed 100% American, "the kind of 'natural born' citizen the Founding Fathers determined could serve as president."

"There is no evidence of the intention of the framers or any Congress to limit the constitutional rights of children born to Americans serving in the military nor to prevent those children from serving as their country's president," the resolution said.

The resolution does not have the power of law. But its main authors, Democratic Senators Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont and Claire McCaskill of Missouri, both Democrats, wanted the Senate to take a clear stand on the issue.

10:37 AM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (17) | e-mail post

 

Limbaugh Tells Dittoheads to Vote for Clinton

Conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh wants to fire up 'Operation Chaos' again. He is calling on his dittoheads in Indiana and North Carolina to go and vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton next Tuesday in the hopes of prolonging the Democratic presidential nomination race. Limbaugh has repeatedly said that the longer the race goes on, the better it is for Republicans and their presidential nominee Sen. John McCain.(Indiana and North Carolina have open primaries.)

Limbaugh had put the operation on hold -- oh, for about an entire day -- while he said he was considering if Obama had been done in by the recent Jeremiah Wright controversy. But after watching the "drive-bys" -- Limbaugh's dismissive term for what he calls the liberal media -- praise Obama's speech about Wright on Tuesday as "courageous," he thinks it's no time for a change in strategy.

As Jonathan Martin notes in Politico.com, if Clinton wins Indiana by, say one thousand votes, "this may actually be important."

9:05 AM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (26) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Superdelegate Switches to Obama

It's just one more superdelegate for Obama, but it's an important "get" for his campaign.

The Associated Press is reporting that Joe Andrew, who chaired the Democratic National Committee for two years while Bill Clinton was president, will announce today that he is switching his support in this year's campaign from Sen. Hillary Clinton to Sen. Barack Obama.

Andrew says the Obama camp didn' t ask him to switch, but he decided to do so after watching the way Obama handled two issues in recent days: his stand against the gas tax holiday and the way he has handled the most recent Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy.

Andrew said he was impressed with Obama's stand on principle against the tax holiday when the politically easy thing to do would have been to support it. And he liked the way Obama has dealt with the Wright controversy.

"He has shown such mettle under fire," Andrew told the AP. "The Jeremiah Wright controversy just reconfirmed for me, just as the gas tax controversy confirmed for me, that he is the right candidate for our party."

Andrew also told the Indianapolis Star that his wife, Ann, who has been a full-time volunteer for Clinton is also switching her support to Obama.

Andrew said he was also concerned about what the bruising battle was doing to his party.

"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point where it is now bad for the Democratic Party."

He also said that a vote to continue this process would be a vote to help John McCain.

Andrew told the Star that he hopes Obama picks a Clinton supporter as his running mate - such as Sen. Evan Bayh, national co-chairman of Clinton's campaign, to help unite thte party.

The Former DNC chairman will make his announcement today in his home town of Indianapolis. He said he also plans to send a letter to remaining uncommitted superdelegates explaining his switch.
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UPDATE: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Obama will pick up three more Illinois superdelegates next week when the Democratic Party of Illinois meet next week to finish filling out the delegate slate:"Mayor [Richard] Daley --he shares strategist David Axelrod with Obama and brother Bill, the former Commerce Secretary is on the Obama team; Illinois House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie (D-Chicago), a Hyde Parker who lives near the Obamas'; and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger."

8:04 AM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Obama Camp Demands Investigation of Pro-Clinton 527

The Obama campaign has accused an independent group supporting Hillary Clinton of violating election laws. The Obama camp wants an investigation by the Federal Election Commission or the Justice Department.

The American Leadership Project has spent several hundred thousand dollars for this attack ad in Indiana:

The project has run 4 TV ads this year -- two attacking Obama, two promoting Clinton.

Obama campaign lawyer Bob Bauer says that takes the group over the line into illegal territory. He says the Federal Election Commission set the standard in 2006 with cases against Swift Boat Veterans and other so-called 527 groups.

"There is no chance that ALP can credibly argue that it didn't know it was violating the law," says Bauer.

Lawyers for the American Leadership Project say that it can exist, legally, as a 527 group. They say it's concerned about issues and is not explicitly calling for Clinton to win the nomination.

-- Peter Overby

5:58 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Gas Tax Holiday Idea Not Winning Many Supporters

Survey says ... gas tax holiday is just not a good idea.

Other than Sen. John McCain and Sen. Hillary Clinton, it seems to be heard to find anyone who thinks that a gas tax holiday is a good idea.

Former Clinton Energy Secretary Federico Peña released a statement via the Obama campaign today that said " ...a gas tax holiday would save the average family only about 30 cents a day. It's designed to win elections, not fix our energy problems."

Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter is pretty blunt. He describes this proposal as "the most irresponsible policy idea of the year--an idea that actually could aid the terrorists. What's worse, both of them know that suspending the federal gas tax this summer is a terrible pander, and yet they're pushing it anyway for crass political advantage."

New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman was equally as cutting.

"It is great to see that we finally have some national unity on energy policy," he wrote. "Unfortunately, the unifying idea is so ridiculous, so unworthy of the people aspiring to lead our nation, it takes your breath away ... This is not an energy policy. This is money laundering: we borrow money from China and ship it to Saudi Arabia and take a little cut for ourselves as it goes through our gas tanks. What a way to build our country."

Yesterday Times columnist Paul Krugman (who has been accused by many Obama supporters of being a Clinton supporter) said he didn't like the idea either:" ... John McCain has a really bad idea on gasoline, Hillary Clinton is emulating him (but with a twist that makes her plan pointless rather than evil), and Barack Obama, to his credit, says no."

Sam Stein of the Huffington Post called economists of every political ideology he could find and not a single one supported the gas tax holiday idea.

Then today in the Washington Post The Trail column, Perry Bacon Jr. writes that "Clinton aides think that even if the measure [gas tax holiday] is a limited way to reduce gas prices, it allows the candidate to bash oil companies and cast her opponent against an idea that has political appeal."

4:44 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (29) | e-mail post

 

DC Non-Profit Confirms It is Making N.C. Robocalls

Women's Voices Women Vote told the News Blog this afternoon that it is the source of robocalls in North Carolina that have, according to the The Institute of Southern Studies Facing South blog, "spread misleading voter information and sown confusion and frustration among North Carolina residents over the last week..."

Women's Voices Women Vote is a Washington D.C. non-profit organization that works to register unmarried women to vote. Communications Director Sarah Johnson says that unmarried women are less likely to vote than their "married sisters."

So as part of a 24-state mailing campaign, according to Johnson, Women's Voices helped send out voter registration packages in the mail. Women just need to fill out the forms and send them back by mail to be registered to vote.

Johnson said they also made automated phone calls to voters in North Carolina when they had the person's number to tell them about the registration packages.

Sounds innocent enough, right? Only problem is that the deadline for mailing in voter registration forms in the mail has already passed in North Carolina. And those robocalls? Johnson confirmed that the calls didn't bother to mention that the deadline had passed and that the forms were only for the fall election. Nor did they identify Women's Voices as the source of the call. The calls instead came from a "Lamont Williams" which Johnson told the News Blog is just an automated voice.

"We do see there this is causing confusion and we completely apologize for the confusion," said Johnson. Johnson says that in the future, any phone calls will contain correct voter information and the source of the calls.

But Facing South alleges there is more to this situation that a simple mistake in timing.

Continue reading "DC Non-Profit Confirms It is Making N.C. Robocalls" »

3:31 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Obama Picks Up Three Superdelegates, Clinton Two

OK, get out your scorecard.

We blogged about this a bit earlier today, but the superdelegate endorsements are coming in fast and furious.

Sen. Barack Obama has picked up the endorsements of three Democratic members of the House of Representatives today: Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley, Indiana Rep. Baron Hill and California rep. Lois Capps. That makes it 77-77 in House endorsements for Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. Obama leads in the Senate 18-13.

Meanwhile Sen. Clinton picked up the endorsements of Pennsylvania superdelegate and AFL-CIO biggie Bill George, along with Puerto Rico's Luisette Cabanas.

Since his loss in Ohio, Obama has picked up 41 superdelegates, Clinton ten. Since his loss in Pennsylvania, Obama has picked up ten supers and Clinton six. There are 235 left to publicly declare support for either candidate.

Clinton leads 262 superdelegates (only, not overall total) to 242.

1:24 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

FactCheck: DNC Ad on McCain Misleading

FactCheck.org takes a look at the new Democratic National Committee ad about Sen. John McCain's statement that a 100-year U.S. presence in Iraq would be "fine with me." And FactCheck finds that the DNC leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to getting the facts straight.

Here is the ad:

Here's what FactCheck had to say:

The clear implication is that if McCain is elected, we can expect to be battling in Iraq for many decades to come. But the admakers cut off the rest of McCain's response, which provides some badly needed context:

McCain, town hall meeting, Jan. 3: Maybe a hundred. ... We've been in Japan for 60 years. We've been in South Korea for 50 years or so. That would be fine with me, as long as Americans, as long as Americans are not being injured or harmed or wounded or killed. It's fine with me and I hope it would be fine with you if we maintain a presence in a very volatile part of the world.

FactCheck says the DNC ad falsely leads people to believe that McCain would be happy to see the war continue for 100 years at its current level of fighting.

"McCain has said quite clearly that he considers Democratic proposals for a quick withdrawal from Iraq to be 'surrender,' and so deadly fighting could well continue longer under a President McCain than under either a President Hillary Clinton or a President Obama. But what the DNC ad conveys is the opposite of what McCain said."

12:30 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Obama to Appear on 'Meet the Press' for Entire Hour

NBC is trumpeting its "exclusive" interview with Sen. Barack Obama this coming Sunday on Meet the Press. Obama will be host Tim Russert's only guest for the entire hour.

It's fair to say that this is a decisive moment for Obama. If he comes off looking confident and in control, it will help him a lot in Indiana, North Carolina and with the superdelegates. If he looks bad, or too defensive or too evasive, it could hurt him badly.

11:42 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

McCain's Gas Tax Holiday Runs Contrary to Other Positions

John McCain's economic adviser believes in price signals.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin spoke approvingly during a conference call Tuesday about how the Safeway supermarket chain lowered its health care costs by sending a strong price signal to employees. In order to encourage workers to take advantage of preventive care, Safeway made it free. No co-pays. No deductibles, for things like smoking cessation and nutrition courses.

Just as lowering prices helps to encourage healthy behavior, raising prices (with a cigarette tax, for example, or higher health insurance premiums for smokers) can help discourage unhealthy behavior.

"There's a good role for public awareness of what contributes to the problem," Holtz-Eakin said.

That's what prices do.

So it's a little puzzling that McCain wants to interfere with the price signal energy markets have been sending.

Since the beginning of the year, the price of crude oil has risen about $20 per barrel. And the price of gasoline has jumped about 50 cents a gallon.

Motorists got the message. According to the Energy Department, demand for gasoline fell more than 6% between January and February, and demand for all finished petroleum products dropped 8.5%.

Instead of simply allowing those market forces to keep working, McCain has proposed lifting the federal gasoline tax during the busy summer driving season from Memorial Day to Labor Day. And now Hillary Clinton has agreed.

Americans are addicted to oil, much of it imported. As McCain himself points out, this contributes to our trade deficit and some of the money we send overseas for oil goes to people who don't have the United States' best interests at heart.

The long term solutions to this are greater fuel efficiency and alternative fuels. The short term solution is to drive less.

So what kind of signal does McCain's proposed lifting of the gas tax send?

-- Scott Horsley

10:51 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

Indiana Polls Show a Tight Democratic Race

Polls in Indiana appear to be all over the place.

A Public Policy Polling survey gave Clinton an 8-point lead, 50%-42%. They interviewed 1388 likely Democratic primary voters with a +/- of 2.2%. But PPP also uses robo-polling, a method which some experts considered not as accurate as operator-initiated calls (being asked questions by "live" humans).

On the other hand, an independent survey (done with live operators) for Howey Politics Indiana conducted by Gauge Market Research shows Obama with a 47% to 45% lead over Clinton. But this survey has a 4.1% +/- margin of error, so it's basically a tie. And this survey was conducted before Rev. Jeremiah Wright's "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more" tour.

Real Clear Politics poll average has Clinton with a 2.2% lead.

9:42 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Battle for Congressional Superdelegates May Be Over

It increasingly looks like the battle on Capitol Hill for the support of Democratic superdelegates is winding down, and that Sen. Barack Obama may be coming out on top.

Politico.com reports that "While more than 80 Democrats in the House and Senate have yet to state their preferences in the race for the Democratic nomination, sources said Tuesday that most of them have already made up their minds and have told the campaigns where they stand."

As a result the constant pressuring of these superdelegates has slacked off. But as Clinton supporter New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez puts it, "Right now, it's about making sure everyone still feels loved and wanted."

So who are the superdelegates supporting? Neither Sen. Clinton's nor Sen. Obama's camp are saying anything, but Obama supporter Sen. Claire McCaskill says it's her guy.

Obama currently holds an 18-13 lead among committed superdelegates in the Senate, while Clinton holds a 77-74 lead in the House. Asked which way the committed-but-unannounced superdelegates are leaning, McCaskill -- who has endorsed Obama -- said: "James Brown would say, 'I Feel Good.'"

But Clinton spokesman Phil Singer says hold your horses there, Sen. McCaskill. "Considering the rough patch Sen. Obama is going through, it's understandable that Sen. McCaskill would want to change the subject, but her observations don't jibe with what automatic delegates are actually saying," he said.
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UPDATE: No sooner did we post this piece when we received an e-mail from the Obama camp announcing that "An aide to U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, D-Iowa, says he will announce his endorsement of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Wednesday."

That makes the House 77-75 for Clinton.

AND MORE: Clinton picks up another superdelegate too, but not from Congress. Pennsylvania Superdelegate Bill George announced his support for Hillary Clinton today.

Meanwhile, Obama gets another member of the House of Representatives. The Louisville Courier-Journal reports that Indiana 9th District Rep. Baron Hill, a previously uncommitted Democratic superdelegate, is endorsing presidential candidate Barack Obama today.

So its 77-76 in the House. Sen. McCaskill's prediction is looking better.

8:59 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Edwards Skips North Carolina Before Primary

Hey, John Edwards, now that you've been knocked out of the Democratic presidential race, and both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama are hounding you to endorse one of them before next Tuesday's primary, what are you going to do?

Go to Disney World!

Yes, the Raleigh News and Observer reports that former Sen. Edwards has quietly left the state for a family vacation in at Walt Disney World in Florida, "fueling speculation that he's not going to endorse either Democratic presidential candidate before the May 6 primary."

But the paper notes that Edwards has pulled this before. In 2004 he took his family on a Disney vacation, leading many to believe he was out of the running for Sen. John Kerry's VP pick. But when no one (as in the media) was watching, he flew to D.C. to meet with Kerry.

Probably this time he just wants to escape media questions about who he is going to support.

8:26 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Michigan Backs Down A Bit, Proposes New Solution

Sen. Hillary Clinton will not be happy with this.

Democrats in Michigan have sent a letter to the Democratic National Committee that proposes a new solution to the battle over whether or not they should by allowed to seat their delegates at the national convention. Under their solution, Clinton would pick up a 10-seat advantage in Michigan, with Clinton getting 69 pledged delegates to 59 for Barack Obama.

The letter, sent by Sen. Carl Levin, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick,UAW President Ron Gettelfinger, and DNC Member Debbie Dingell calls on Clinton, Obama and the DNC to sign on to the proposal.

The Obama camp immediately said "we'll look into it." It's not the perfect solution for them, but it's close. Only allowing Clinton to pick up 10 delegates really won't make much of a dent in Obama's pledged delegate lead. That's why this solution still may not fly - it won't make the Clinton camp happy. And DNC chairman Howard Dean has said that both camps have to agree on a solution or else it will go to the credentials committee to work it all out.

Here is the letter:

Continue reading "Michigan Backs Down A Bit, Proposes New Solution" »

5:26 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

Obama Rips into Wright Over NPC Appearance

Sen. Barack Obama Tuesday said he was outraged by comments made by his former Pastor Jeremiah Wright.

"I am outraged by the comments that were made and saddened by the spectacle that we saw yesterday," Obama told reporters at a news conference.

Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com says that Obama aides told him that Obama was deeply angry at what Wright said at the National Press Club, and insisted that he hold a second press conference immediately.

Judging by his square jaw and his posture -- rigid -- and his tone of voice -- elegiac and sad at points, and hard and resolute at others, Obama felt aggrieved and disrespected, especially by Wright's implication that Obama's speech on racial politics in Philadelphia was mere politics. "I want to use this press conference to make people absolutely clear that obviously whatever relationship I had with Rev. Wright has changed, he said. "I don't think he showed much concern for me ... and what we are trying to do in this campaign."

"My reaction has more to do with what I want this campaign to be about.... in some ways, what Rev. Wright said yesterday directly contradicts everything that I've done during my life. It contradicts how i was raise and the setting in which I was raised; it contradicts my decision to pursue a career of public service. It contradicts the issues that I've worked on politically."

Here's the video of the press conference:

But as Ambinder notes, the cable news media is already practicing "psychological pornography" analyzing thoughts behind the thinking.

3:30 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

McCain Gives Specifics on Health Care Plan

Arizona Senator John McCain visited a Tampa, Florida cancer center today, and talked up his plan to encourage a more competitive individual market for health insurance.

McCain called the lifesaving care at Tampa's Moffitt Cancer Center an inspiration. The Republican presidential hopeful says the best of American health care should be available to everyone no matter where they work or how much money they have. Too often, he says, the health care system falls short of that goal. McCain has proposed an overhaul that's designed to help more people to buy their own insurance, rather than getting it through an employer or doing without.

"The health plan you chose would be as good as any that an employer could choose for you. It would be yours and your family's health-care plan, and yours to keep. When families are informed about medical choices, they are more capable of making their own decisions, less likely to choose the most expensive and often unnecessary options, and are more satisfied with their choices"

Proponents say having individuals shop for health care would create more competition and lower costs. McCain also proposed tax credits to subsidize the private insurance and letting customers shop for insurance across state lines.

Critics warn those individual policies could be too expensive for older people and those with serious medical conditions. They also say shopping for health care would be fine for young, healthy people, but provide little protection for the sick and elderly.

-- Scott Horsley

3:16 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Indianapolis Star Interviews Sen. Hillary Clinton

Last week we brought you Sen. Obama, today we bring you Sen. Hillary Clinton talking to the editorial board of the Indianapolis Star.

Continue reading "Indianapolis Star Interviews Sen. Hillary Clinton" »

3:00 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Economists: Gas Tax Holiday No Break from High Prices

So just how effective would a break from the gas tax be for Americans this summer? Sens. John McCain and Hillary Clinton say it would be a big help. In Greensboro, N.C. today, Clinton said "I would also consider having a gas tax holiday this summer because we're going to drive a lot of small independent truckers out of business." President Bush agrees with Clinton and McCain.

Sen. Barack Obama, meanwhile, says its all just a mirage, that most Americans would at most get a $30 break - about half a tank.

So what's the real scoop on the gas tax?

Well, psychologically it might give people a sense of a break, but most economists believe that Obama is closer to the reality here. The real bottom line is that a gas tax holiday might actually lead to an increase in gas prices.

Here the argument that most economists are making:

* Gasoline is subject to supply and demand. It's pretty simple economics. If the price is lower, people will drive more. Which means that oil refineries will have to try and produce more but industry experts say refineries are already working at full capacity to meet the current demand. There won't be enough to go around and that means that prices will rise in order to dampen demand. And as Prof. Edinaldo Tebaldi, who teaches international economics and trade, told the Providence Journal, gasoline is in international demand; regardless of what we do here, demand from overseas will keep the price high.

Continue reading "Economists: Gas Tax Holiday No Break from High Prices" »

12:28 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

Names to Watch at Rezko Trial: Rove and Hastert

Most people have been waiting for the name of Sen. Barack Obama to surface during the trial of Chicago developer and political fixer Antoin "Tony" Rezko. (And it did recently, when it appeared in connection with a party held at Rezko's home in April of 2004 on behalf of Nadhmi Auchi, a British citizen appealing a fraud conviction in France. The Swamp writes that Rezko was allegedly trying to partner up with Auchi and may have been using an Obama appearance to demonstrate clout. Obama doesn't deny that he might have been there, but says he doesn't remember the event.)

But the names who have been attracting the most attention over the past few days have been former Bush political guru Karl Rove and former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

Last week, prosecutors told the judge in the Rezko trial that it has a witness [former Illinois state official Ali Ata] that would testify that he has a conversation with Rezko where it was alleged that Karl Rove was working to remove the Chicago U.S. attorney, Patrick Fitzgerald. As Newsweek notes, the revelation immediately produced reverberations in Washington.

Democrats in Congress now want to question Ata. They believe he can help buttress their theory that Rove played a key role in discussions that led to the firings of U.S. attorneys at the Justice Department in 2006. The House Judiciary Committee "intends to investigate the facts and circumstances alleged in this testimony," panel chairman Rep. John Conyers of Michigan said in a statement to Newsweek.

Ata will allegedly testify that he has a conversation with Rezko where he was told that Bob Kjellander, a prominent GOP state lobbyist, was talking to Rove about getting rid of Fitzgerald.

Continue reading "Names to Watch at Rezko Trial: Rove and Hastert" »

10:49 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Could Wright's Appearances Actually Help Obama?

The New York Times has an interesting take on this year's main controversy and how it has played out over the past few days. While pundits are saying that Wright's fiery appearances at the NAACP meeting in New York and at the National Press Club will hurt Obama, the Times believes they may help him.

"Cable news commentators have focused on the damage the spectacle inflicted on the embattled Obama campaign. And while Mr. Wright's behavior may not have been politic for Mr. Obama, it was politics as usual for the television age. In at least one way, Mr. Wright's star turn may have helped defuse his importance in the long run. The pastor who was thrust upon the public consciousness as a caricature of the angry black man emerged after an exhaustive series of performances as a more familiar television persona: a voluble, vain and erudite entertainer, a born televangelist who quotes Ralph Ellison as well as the Bible and mixes highfalutin academic trope with salty street talk."

Thoughts? Have Wright's 'in-your-face' appearances actually made it easier for Obama to get distance from him that if Wright had just stayed out of sight?

9:51 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (26) | e-mail post

 

Candidates' Take Different Paths to Health Care

Sen. John McCain is planning to flesh out his ideas on health care coverage today, so we'll have more details later.

But until, the Indianapolis Star's offers a concise guide to the three-remaining candidates' health care plans, based on what we know so far. Obama and Clinton have been arguing for several months about whose plan covers more Americans. McCain really differs from the Democrats in that he doesn't believe in universal health-care coverage of any kind. (Elizabeth Edwards has been a consistent critic of McCain's health care plan, which she has called "a version of what President Bush is trying to do.")

You can find the Star's short-hand guide here.

Here's McCain's latest health care ad:

7:55 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Polls Shows Obama Better at Retaining Democrats

Polls are like the weather. If you don't like what you see, wait a couple of days and something new will come along. Sometimes you only have to wait a few hours.

Late yesterday Zogby released a poll that finds almost the exact opposite of the AP-Ipsos poll which showed Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 9-point lead over Sen. John McCain. The Zogby poll shows McCain with a 10-point lead over Clinton 44%-34% (with 16 percent undecided). But he trails Sen. Barack Obama by three points, 45%-42% (with 8 percent undecided).

But it's the surrounding details that are interesting. For instance, in the McCain-Clinton battle Ralph Nader and Bob Barr received 3% and 4% respectively. But in the Obama-McCain matchup, Nader drops to 1% and Barr to 3%.

Even more interesting, the poll puts a twist on previous polls that have shown that more Clinton supporters would vote for McCain if Obama was the nominee than vice-versa.

The online poll, conducted April 25-28, 2008, shows that Obama retains 80% support among Democrats, compared to just 66% of Democrats who said they will back Clinton against McCain, the survey shows. Against Obama, McCain wins 11% of the Democratic support, while he wins 10% support against Clinton. [This would seem to indicate than many Democrats just won't vote --or might voter for Nader -- if In the McCain-Clinton race, 12% of Democrats said they were undecided, compared to just 4% of Democrats who were undecided in the McCain-Obama race.

The survey included 7,653 likely voters nationwide. Zogby uses interactive online polls, which some experts say aren't as reliable as operator-based phone calls to respondents, but Zogby believes otherwise. Zogby says there is only a +/- of 1.1% on the poll.

7:30 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

House Republicans Say Clinton is Tougher Candidate

It seems the Republicans are changing their minds about who would be the tougher candidate to face in the fall. Rep. Tom Cole, the GOP's campaign chief now says Sen. Hillary Clinton would be the tougher candidate for Republicans to face in the fall, rather than Sen. Barack Obama.

"I think he is the weaker (Democratic) candidate," Cole told reporters Monday. Obama "is by any definition very liberal, to the left of Hillary Clinton, in a center-right country," Cole said. "That is very, very helpful to us."

It's an interesting change, but it also begs the question, why is he saying it?

Marc Ambinder of theAtlantic.com thing Cole is "attempting a fumbling jijitsu move by luring the Democrats into a false sense of remorse about almost nominating Obama because Obama, in fact, would be the more difficult candidate."

"Indeed, Democratic superdelegates might actually pay attention to what Tom Cole says. Or he could be telling the truth. I suspect that the actual difference in drag between Clinton, once nominated, and Obama, once nominated, would be fairly minimal, perhaps only a few knots' worth of headwind. In any event, the Democrats are likely to pick up House seats, so even assuming that Cole is telling the truth, what we're debating here is the size of the Democratic margin over Republicans."

5:17 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

No Discounts for McCain in Homewood, Alabama

Last week NPR's Peter Overby reported on how Sen. John McCain had gotten a special deal on Rosewood Hall in Homewood, Alabama for a fundraiser. Mayor Barry McCulley, who had arranged the special deal on the hall (about one-quarter of its normal price),said he was just trying to get people to use the hall on a Monday night, normally a slow time.

Democrats complained, however, them weren't able to get a similar deal. (McCulley is not a Republican.)

But Peter e-mailed tonight to pass along this news:

Discount, new low rate or whatever it was, the McCain campaign won't get it. Homewood Mayor McCulley said Monday that he was wrong in letting McCain's campaign pay a reduced fee for its fundraiser at Rosewood Hall, and he's asked the campaign to pay the original cost.

"Short of that," he wrote in a press release, "I will find a way to pay the difference myself."

Serious Straight Talk Express here. And McCulley never used the phrases "I regret the appearance" or "mistakes were made."

Guess times must have been hot for the mayor in Homewood.

6:55 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Obama Picks Up Superdelegate and Clinton Too ... Maybe

Sen. Barack Obama picked up the endorsement of another superdelegate today. New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman cited Obama's "ability to rise above the issues that divide us, end the war in Iraq, bring universal health care, and make America energy independent."

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that a source close to North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley says the governor will endorse Sen. Hillary Clinton tomorrow. Easley would be just the second superdelegate from North Carolina to endorse Clinton. Six of the state's 17 superdelegates have endorsed Obama.

Earlier today, Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean repeated his demand that superdelegates make up their minds by June 3.

6:05 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post

 

Clinton, Obama Neck and Neck in Democratic Race

Two polls out today show just how tight the race has become between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.

The Gallup Daily Tracking polls has Obama up by a point, 47% to 46%, but that's basically a tie when you factor in the margin of error of error of +/- 3 percent. It's also close in a contest with Sen. John McCain, with Clinton leading by 3 points, 47% to 44% and Obama and McCain tied at 45%.

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll has good news for Clinton. It shows her beating McCain in a matchup 50% to 41% (which plays to her "electability" argument) while Obama leads McCain 46% to 44%.

The interesting question that these polls seem to ask is, with everything that has been thrown at Clinton and particularly Obama in the past few weeks -- sniper fire in Bosnia, Rev. Weight, Bill Clinton's comments about race, Obama's bitter remarks -- why is McCain still either behind (in one case signifcantly) or tied with his Democratic rivals? This may be why some Republicans are concerned that as well as he has done, McCain could have problems in the fall.

"The truth of the matter is if the race becomes a race about the issues environment, as opposed to a race about personality and stature differences and ideology, McCain has a real problem," Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio told USAToday. "If we're fighting over whose policy is better on the economy as opposed to who's outside the mainstream in America, we've got a problem as Republicans."

But if McCain runs the right kind of campaign, says Fabrizio, "he could win in a landslide."

2:26 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

McCain Works to Improve Economic Credentials

It's not an easy feat - creating an economic plan which appeals to the Republican's conservative base, but at the same time can attracts independents and maybe even some Democrats. But the Christian Science Monitor reports that GOP presumptive presidential nominee John McCain has been trying to do just that over the past few weeks.

But after eight years of the Bush administration and at a time when the economy is not as strong as many in the GOP would like, it won't be an easy task.

"McCain is trying to distance himself from Bush on the economy, but the eventual Democratic nominee will do everything they can to make him look like he's changed his first name to 'George,' " says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.

If "McCainomics" can be described in a sentence, it might be this: traditional GOP tax-cutting, with a dash of populism sprinkled on top.

To begin with, McCain would make President Bush's tax cuts permanent, rather than let them expire in coming years, as current law calls for. Critics say this is something of a switch for a lawmaker who opposed the tax cuts as too expensive when they were proposed. He would eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax, which has eaten into the incomes of middle-class Americans. This move would cost $60 billion a year, according to campaign estimates.

McCain would double the personal exemption for dependents from $3,500 to $7,000, reduce the corporate tax rate from 35 to 25 percent, and establish a permanent new research-and-development tax credit. At the April 15 speech outlining his economic plan, he also called for the elimination of the federal gasoline tax this summer -- a move that, strictly speaking, the next president would have to go back in time to accomplish.

But Saboto says if the recession is not "short and shallow," it makes McCain's job all that much harder, even with the Democrats locked in a bruising nomination battle.

12:46 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Supreme Court Rejects Voter I.D. Challenge

The U.S. Supreme Court has rejected a challenge to Indiana's voter-ID laws that requires residents to show a government-approved ID before voting in an election. In a 6-3 decision written by Justice John Paul Stevens, the ScotusBlog reports that "the court ruled that the evidence offered against the requirement in Indiana did not support a challenge to the law as written."

The voter ID ruling may turn out to be a significant victory for Republicans at election time, since the requirement for proof of identification is likely to fall most heavily on voters long assumed to be identified with the Democrats -- particularly minority and poor voters. The GOP for years has been actively pursuing a campaign against what it calls "voter fraud," and the Court's ruling Monday appears to validate that effort, at least in part. The main opinion said states have a valid interest in preventing voting by those not entitled to do so, even if there is no specific proof of that kind of fraud.

But the ruling does not bar future challenges to the law, since three of the justices said the problem was that not enough evidence was presented to overturn the law. Taken with the votes of the three dissenters, "a majority of the Court has not barred all future challenges to voter ID laws, provided future cases seek to test such laws they were actually applied in an election."

10:47 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Wright Fires Back at Media in Press Club Speech

In a fiery speech and question and answer session at the National Press Club in Washington, Rev. Jeremiah Wright defended himself against allegations that he is unpatriotic, that he thinks American deserved the 9/11 attack and answered questions about why he is coming out to defend himself at this point in time.

Wright was blunt and unapologetic. He said most of the attacks in the media were not on him personally, but on the black church and black church traditions.

When asked if he was unapologetic, he said, "I served six years in the military. Does that make me patriotic? How many years did [Vice President Dick] Cheney serve?" [Cheney received several deferments and never served in Vietnam.]

Asked about his 9/11 comments, he pointed out that most people had not heard the entire speech, and that he was actually quoting a U.S. ambassador. But he also quoted the Bible, saying you sow what you reap, and that Jesus said treat other people the way you want to be treated. "If you bring terrorism to the rest of the world, you can't expect it not to come back at you at some point," said Wright.

When asked about his motivation for speaking out now, Wright said that he had to speak out against people who were smearing his religious tradition.

You can watch the entire speech at CSpan.
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UPDATE: Mark Ambinder at theAtlantic.com has an interesting take on the Wright appearances. Wright has apparently decided to throw Obama "under the bus" so to speak, and the Obama campaign is of two minds about his speeches. On the one hand, they don't think Wright's speeches will rehabilitate his image for white Americans. But the more he talks, the easier it is for Obama to gain some separation from Wright.

" ... Wright's decision to publicly break up with Obama by essentializing him as a politician may well generate some distance between himself and Obama; perhaps the public may perceive the distance; the more outre Wright becomes, the easier it is for Obama to say -- look at what he says, and look at what I say. The campaign is also thankful that Wright decided to speak out now, rather than in, say, October."

10:30 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (22) | e-mail post

 

African-American Scholar Links Obama, Wright to King

Author and social commentator Dr. Michael Eric Dyson presented a fascinating overview of the relationship between Sen. Barack Obama, Rev. Jeremiah Wright and the late Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King. Interviewed by host Bob Edwards on the Bob Edwards Weekend Show, Dyson said that we have to view both men in terms of the two periods in the life of Dr. King.

Obama is the pre-1965 King. The one the holiday is named for, said Dyson. The King who spoke of brotherhood and non-violence. The one who doesn't scare white people, who they could incorporate into their world view.

Wright is the post-'65 King. The one Americans know little about. The King who spoke out against the war in Vietnam. The King who said that most whites in America were racists. The King who spoke out against social and economic injustice in America. People remember that King was murdered in Memphis, Dyson says. But they often forget why he was there - not to promote equality, but to help lead a strike of garbage workers in the city.

Dyson said that people forget that when King gave his "seminal" anti-Vietnam speech on April 4, 1967 at New York's Riverside Church, he was condemned by many white - and even black - pundits and church leaders for "going too far."

But Dyson says that it's important to understand both men in order to understand the black experience in America.

9:49 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

More than 100,000 Votes Already Cast in N.C.

The Raleigh News and Observer reports that more than 100,000 people have voted in the North Carolina primary. The state has a one-stop early voting program that allows people to register and vote at the same time.

Meanwhile, the paper profiled voters in Wake County who went to the polls right after church on Sunday.

"Weekends are a time when people are available," said John Gilbert, chairman of the Wake elections board. "It's not like 40 years ago when we still had blue laws and nobody was open."

And it's not as if Sunday voting is a new idea, Gilbert said. Nations around the world have used Sundays for elections.

Last week, Sunday Soapbox looked at why we vote on Tuesdays. (It was a mid-19th century effort to give rural Americans a chance to vote.) Technically, people are supposed to get time off to vote, but this doesn't always happen. Is it time for elections to move to the weekends? Or should we go the Oregon route and allow people to move by mail?

8:15 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Georgia Democrats Say Obama Campaign Gives Lift

Democrats in Georgia are saying that the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama will give them the best chance they've had in years to wage a competitive fight against Republicans in the southern state.

"We're seeing a lot of enthusiasm for our candidates that we haven't seen in past cycles," State Rep. Rob Teilhet (D-Smyrna), the man charged with leading candidate recruitment for House Democrats in Georgia, told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He said Obama has already given the party a lift.

Boosting Democratic hopes is the fact that many Georgia Republicans are saying publicly and privately that they are concerned about Obama's influence on the November elections and about the impact their own very public infighting will have on their base.

All of this has likely made Teilhet's job easier than it would have been in past years. In 2006, the last time the 180 House seats were up for election, 129 races were uncontested, meaning there was only one candidate on the ballot. Of the remaining 51 races, only 10 were competitive, meaning the outcome was decided by about 10 percentage points.

While Teilhet declined to discuss specifics of the party's strategy, he said the party has identified 30 to 35 House districts that "are either competitive or may become competitive."

Unlike the past, when Republicans excelled at organizing, the Democrats are using "Vote Builder," a high-tech system of tracking registered voters, voter contact and demographic data that the party has lacked. The Obama campaign has helped add thousands of names to the system.

Republicans are more than aware of the problem. Ben Fry, executive director of the Georgia Republican Party, said he "won't let controversies over Obama's comments about Pennsylvania voters, or the controversy over his former pastor's rhetoric, lull him into thinking that an Obama bounce won't materialize."

7:43 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Wright Gives Fiery, Unapologetic Speech to NAACP

Rev. Jeremiah Wright is not making any apologies for preaching the gospel in the way he things best. The Detroit News reports that he gave an "unapologetic" speech Sunday to an NAACP dinner. He was "alternately fiery and humorous as he defended the preaching that has taken center stage in the presidential campaign."

"I am not running for the Oval Office...I have been running for Jesus for a long, long time, and I'm not tired yet."

While Wright's remarks have been condemned by Republican politicians and pundits to Obama and his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, the minister got a rousing standing ovation at Sunday night's Detroit NAACP Fight For Freedom Fund Dinner before a crowd of nearly 10,000.

Before Wright spoke, a series of Detroit religious and civil rights leaders defended him against what they called unfair media attacks and praised his ministry. Wright is "a great champion of freedom," said the Rev. Kenneth Flowers of Greater New Mount Moriah Baptist Missionary Church and the head of the local NAACP's religious affairs council. Flowers compared Wright to biblical prophets and the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. as a man "who's not trying to please the establishment, but to please our God."

Here's some video from the speech:

You can find video of the entire speech here.

On Sunday morning, The Dallas Morning News reports that two different services of 4,000 worshippers each at Friendship-West Baptist Church in Dallas, Texas gave Wright standing ovations.

"We know better," said Rickey Hill, executive pastor at Friendship-West. "It's a tremendous blessing to have him here, especially after all the vilification."

6:30 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

In 2004, MacAuliffe Warned Michigan Not to Move Primary

Four years ago, Terry McAuliffe, top Clinton campaign aide, was the chairman of the Democratic National Committee -- the position now held by former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. And he had a problem with Michigan. How do we know this? He wrote about it in his book "What a Party!: My Life Among Democrats: Presidents, Candidates, Donors, Activists, Alligators and Other Wild Animals"

As Mark Nickolas note in his blog "Political Base," Sen. Carl Levin told McAuliffe that he was going to take Michigan "outside the primary window." McAuliffe told Levin that ""I will not let you break this entire nominating process for one state. The rules are the rules." The story continues on page 325.

"If I allow you to do that, the whole system collapses," I said. "We will have chaos. I let you make your case to the DNC, and we voted unanimously and you lost."

He kept insisting that they were going to move up Michigan on their own, even though if they did that, they would lose half their delegates. By that point Carl and I were leaning toward each other over a table in the middle of the room, shouting and dropping the occasional expletive.

"You won't deny us seats at the convention," he said.

"Carl, take it to the bank," I said. "They will not get a credential. The closest they'll get to Boston will be watching it on television. I will not let you break this entire nominating process for one state. The rules are the rules. If you want to call my bluff, Carl, you go ahead and do it."

We glared at each other some more, but there was nothing much left to say. I was holding all the cards and Levin knew it.

MacAuliff'e position has changed. He's now in the position of Levin, arguing that despite breaking the rules, delegates from Michigan (and Florida) should be seated at the Democratic National Convention.
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UPDATE: The current DNC chairman, Howard Dean told "Meet the Press" on Sunday that the Florida and Michigan delegates should be seated, but he "signaled no intention to intervene in the dispute."

"They're very important states, but that doesn't mean they're more important than everybody else," Dean said.

Dean signaled that he will not try to influence the deliberations of the party's Rules & Bylaws Committee, which has scheduled a meeting for May 31 to discuss Michigan and Florida. Under consideration will be challenges from the two states, seeking reinstatement of half their elected delegates and full slates of superdelegates.

"I don't know what the solution is going to be. The rules committee is going to start working on that now," Dean said. "Nobody will be satisfied with the outcome because nobody is going to get everything they want."

2:53 PM ET | 04-27-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Elizabeth Edwards Knocks Media's "Cliff Notes" Coverage

Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of former Senator and presidential candidate John Edwards, thinks the media -- the mainstream media in particular -- spends too much time covering the rancor of the presidential campaign instead of the "the information about the candidates' priorities, policies and principles -- information that voters will need to choose the next president -- too often did not make the cut."

Writing in The New York Times, Edwards laments how little time the MSM spends actually talking about substance.

"The vigorous press that was deemed an essential part of democracy at our country's inception is now consigned to smaller venues, to the Internet and, in the mainstream media, to occasional articles. I am not suggesting that every journalist for a mainstream media outlet is neglecting his or her duties to the public. And I know that serious newspapers and magazines run analytical articles, and public television broadcasts longer, more probing segments.

"But I am saying that every analysis that is shortened, every corner that is cut, moves us further away from the truth until what is left is the Cliffs Notes of the news, or what I call strobe-light journalism, in which the outlines are accurate enough but we cannot really see the whole picture."

Edwards says it's easier to find, say, Barack Obama's bowling score that what former presidential candidate Joe Biden's health care policy was. She writes that while she was campaign with her husband, she saw the media gravitate towards narratives, like characters in a novel.

Continue reading "Elizabeth Edwards Knocks Media's "Cliff Notes" Coverage" »

11:52 AM ET | 04-27-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

N.C. GOP Use of Race in Ad Is Nothing New

Rob Christensen of the Raleigh News and Observer has an interesting look at the way the Republican Party in North Carolina has used race against Democratic ... and Republican ... candidates, going back 32 years. And Christensen reports that the sequence is almost always the same: the state GOP runs a racially tinged ad, the national party or candidate renounces it, and the ad sometime is -- and sometimes isn't -- pulled.

And it's not just Democrats who've been on the receiving end.

Christensen points to 1976 when then-California Gov. Ronald Reagan was fighting President Gerald Ford for the party's presidential nomination.

Sen. [Jesse] Helms' political organization had taken over the Reagan campaign in North Carolina. Tom Ellis, the Raleigh lawyer who was Helms' chief strategist, played the race card. The Ford campaign had released a list of potential vice presidential running mates that included Sen. Edward Brooke of Massachusetts, the first black U.S. senator of the 20th century. The Helms organization printed leaflets with the headline: "Ford suggests Brooke as a possible partner."

When Reagan learned of the flier he ordered a halt -- although whether it was actually stopped is an open question. "The governor has never campaigned on race, never used it as an issue and never will and feels strongly about it," Michael Deaver, Reagan's chief of staff, said at the time.

Sometimes the state GOP tried to keep African-Americans away from the polls. In 1990, when Helms was being challenged by former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt, an African-American architect, the party sent out 125,000 "mailed 125,000 postcards into black neighborhoods warning them that they might commit voter fraud if they have recently moved, in an effort to depress black turnout."

Christensen offers several other examples as well.

8:39 AM ET | 04-27-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Moyers' Interview with Rev. Jeremiah Wright

PBS host Bill Moyers interview the Rev. Jeremiah Wright on his show last night, Bill Moyers Journal.

Here is the link to the video of the interview.

Here is the transcript of the interview:

April 25, 2008

BILL MOYERS: Welcome to the JOURNAL.

Barack Obama's pastor was in the news again this week. North Carolina Republicans are preparing to run an ad tying Obama to some controversial sound bites lifted from Reverend Jeremiah Wright's sermons. And CBS and MSNBC led their broadcasts with reports about the ad.

DEAN REYNOLDS: In North Carolina the Republicans put their ad on the internet and say they're going to broadcast it as well.

KEITH OLBERMANN: Republican hit job the North Carolina GOP plans a Willie Horton style TV ad against Obama.

BILL MOYERS: Jeremiah Wright will be in Washington Monday for a news conference at the National Press Club -- his first since the controversy erupted over those incendiary sound bites. You've heard them; who hasn't heard them: Wright suggesting the terrorist attacks of 9/11 were payback for American policy; Wright repeating the canard heard often in black communities that the u.s. government spread HIV in those communities; Wright seemingly calling on God to damn America.

But just who is this man? That's the question I asked when those sound bites began popping up. I'd heard the name Jeremiah Wright -- his church in Chicago belongs to the fellowship of the United Church of Christ. I joined a UCC church on Long Island 40 years ago and attend Riverside Church in New York City, which is affiliated with American Baptists and the UCC. But I couldn't remember ever having met Reverend Wright. So I wanted to know more about the man, the ministry, and the church.

BILL MOYERS: In 1972, Jeremiah Wright became pastor of Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago. He inherited a struggling congregation of just 9887 members.

REVEREND WRIGHT: I have a friend who every time you greet him, every time you ask him how you doing, he answers, just trying to make it man, just trying to make it.

Continue reading "Moyers' Interview with Rev. Jeremiah Wright" »

3:16 PM ET | 04-26-2008 | permalink | comments (23) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Focusing on Small Towns in Oregon, North Carolina

It was a strategy that paid off in Pennsylvania, a state solidly in Sen. Hillary Clinton's "column." But she is continuing her focus on small towns in two other states that are either strongly in favor of or leading towards Sen. Barack Obama, North Carolina and Oregon.

The Oregonian reports that as in previous states, many of the visits to small towns will be made by Sen. Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton.

"Sen. Clinton has been performing extremely well with working class union households and rural Democrats," Josh Kardon, chairman of Clinton's Oregon steering committee, said in a telephone interview Thursday. "We are going to take this campaign to places that most presidential candidates never venture."

The paper says the Clintons are focusing on counties that went solidly for President George Bush in the last election, but still have more registered Democrats than Republicans.

The Raleigh News and Observer reports that Sen. Clinton "finds common ground with white voters in the state's military towns and the mountains."

Many rural and small-town whites in the South are now registered Republicans. But North Carolina still has more white Democrats than most Southern states, and they have been a prime target for Clinton and her husband, the former president.

People interviewed by the paper cited the way Clinton behaved during the Monica Lewinsky scandal as a reason for their support, and that some were leery of Obama because they weren't sure "of his religious beliefs."

3:10 PM ET | 04-26-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Top Clinton Fundraiser Bolts to Obama Camp

Gabriel Guerra-Mondragon, who served as an ambassador to Chile during Bill Clinton's presidency and became a top fundraiser for Sen. Hillary Clinton, has jumped ship to the Obama campaign.

The Los Angeles Times reports that sources inside the Obama camp said he had "became 'concerned about the tone of the race.' " Guerra-Mondragon, who had raised $300,000 for Clinton, will now use his fundraising skills for Obama.

The Washington Post's The Trail caught up with Guerra-Mondragon, who confirmed the reason behind the switch.

"We're just bleeding each other out," Guerra-Mondragon said, when asked about the switch. "Looking at it as coldly as I can, I just don't see how Senator Clinton can overcome Senator Obama with delegates and popular votes. I want this fight to be over, the quicker the better."

The former Clintonite said the decision to jump ship to join Obama's team "was a very, very difficult decision for me to make. I am an old and longtime friend of Senator Clinton. And I continue to think she is a fantastic and formidable person. But I am first of all a Democrat."

Clinton aides said they did not see more "HillRaisers" (as the top fundraisers are called) following Guerra-Mondragon. "Pennsylvania did the job of calming any nerves that existed," said Jay Carson, a campaign spokesman.

8:13 AM ET | 04-26-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

McCain Attacks Obama on Ayers

Sen. John McCain attacked Sen. Barack Obama Friday for his association with former 60s radical Prof. William Ayers. Talking to conservative bloggers, McCain said that "I think not only a repudiation, but an apology for ever having anything to do with an unrepentant terrorist is due the American people," McCain said.

Ben Smith at Politico.com speculates that McCain has chosen Ayers as his line of attack, rather than Rev. Jeremiah Wright, "perhaps because he has his own troublesome pastor." Smith is referring to McCain's problems over the past few days after comments made by Pastor Jim Hagee.

The Obama campaign was quick to respond via e-mail, saying "McCain's use of 'the politics of association' undermines his credibility." The e-mail quotes McCain Senior Adviser, Charlie Black: "What Senator McCain has said repeatedly is that these candidates cannot be held accountable for all the views of people who endorse them or people who befriend them ... But John McCain believes is that Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton should be held accountable for their public policy views, the things we've described before, big government versus smaller government."

7:46 AM ET | 04-26-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee to Meet May 31st

Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com reports that the rules and bylaws committee of the Democratic National Committee will meet on May 31st to hear two challenges (from Michigan and Florida) that "could change the delegate math just as the primary season is about to close."

But as Ambinder notes, the meeting -- coming so late in May -- could be too late for Clinton.

Here's the text of the e-mail calling the meeting:

TO: DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Members

FROM: Alexis Herman & Jim Roosevelt, Jr., Co-Chairs

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC)

SUBJECT: Meeting Announcement--May 31, 2008

DATE: April 25, 2008

Realizing that members have very busy schedules, we wanted to notify you as soon as possible that the RBC will meet on Saturday, May 31, 2008 in Washington, D.C. We are asking members to arrive on Friday, May 30, 2008 in time for a private informal dinner with us. While we expect the RBC meeting to last most of the day on Saturday, we are asking members not to make their departure plans until Sunday.

The main item of business on the Committee's agenda will be the consideration of two pending challenges.

We hope you are able to attend this very important RBC meeting. Further information, including meeting agenda and meeting logistics, will be forwarded to you in the near future.

Please note that this is an official meeting of the RBC. Therefore, we would like to remind members of the attendance requirement established in the Bylaws (Article Two, Section 10.(g)). Members who miss three consecutive RBC meetings are deemed to have resigned from the Committee. Registering a proxy, while important for establishing a quorum and assuring your vote is represented, does not count for the purpose of attendance at a meeting.

4:29 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Obama Talks to Indy Star Editorial Board

It's live at the moment (3:53 p.m. Friday) but it will be archive for those coming in later.

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UPDATE: We've taken out the link to the Star's live video page. Here is the link to the recorded version of the sessions. (It's broken into sections, or else we would just post it here.)

3:50 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Wright Appearences Could CauseTrouble for Obama

By now, only penguins in Antarctica are unaware that Rev. Jeremiah Wright will appear on Bill Moyers Journal tonight on PBS. It will probably be the show's biggest audience in many years..

PBS has released some snippets from the show. Here's the video (just in case you haven't seen it one of the 10,000 times it's been shown on cable news networks today):

Conversation about the snippets (which, in that post-modern way things work, is talking about the snippets first used against Wright) centers on the "He's a politician, he says what politician say, I'm a pastor, I say what I have to say as a pastor ..." Reaction is mixed on the effect of these remarks on Obama.

But just in case tonight's appearance doesn't generate enough headlines, Wright will also appear at a 10,000 seat NAACP dinner on Sunday night. And then on Monday, Wright will appear at the national Pres Club in D.C. Sometimes the Press Club has trouble generating media interests in events that happen there - that won't be a problem this time.

3:35 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (23) | e-mail post

 

McCain: Hagee's Comments About New Orleans 'Nonsense'

After reading this quote, it easy to see Sen. John McCain's frustration. During his trip to New Orleans Thursday, he was asked about Pastor John Hagge's comments on Tuesday that God was angry at New Orelans for plans to hold a gay parade and Hurricane Katrina was the result.

Here was McCain's reply as reported by Fox News:

McCain: "It's nonsense, it's nonsense, it's nonsense, it's nonsense, it's nonsense. I don't have anything additional to say. It's nonsense, it's nonsense, it's nonsense, I don't have anything more to say....it's nonsense. I reject it categorically."

Q: Do you regret accepting his endorsement?

McCain: It's nonsense. I don't have anything more to say about that. Of course--I apologize for that. It's nonsense. I reject that categorically and I would point out there's a lot of people who have endorsed me. They support my views. That does not mean that I support--would I consider repudiating his endorsement? I certainly condemn those parts of his remarks. I continue to appreciate his support for the state of Israel and for many of the good things that he and his church has done. But I repudiate as strongly as possible those remarks and those of the Catholic church as well.

McCain had actively sought Hagee's endorsement (according to Hagee). But ever since he did, he's spent a lot of time "repudiating" comments made by Hagee, particularly about Catholics.

McCain said last Sunday that accepting Hagee's endorsement was probably "a mistake" but that he's still glad to have it.

Do you think Hagee could become McCain's Rev. Jeremiah Wright? Obama sat in Wright's church for 20 years, but McCain went after Hagee's endorsement, knowing what he had said about other groups. Is there a difference?

Does Obama need to go farther in terms of distancing himself from Wright? Does McCain have to renounce Hagee's endorsement?

2:30 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (16) | e-mail post

 

Presidential Politics From the Ground Up

Hard to believe, but not everything the presidential candidates do makes news. One example: John McCain was in Birmingham, Ala., this past Monday, and held a $100-per-person fundraiser in the suburb of Homewood. Not exactly we-bring-you-special-coverage material.

But even a non-story can have a story behind it.

It seems that the "young professionals" event - that's the campaign's description - was held at Rosewood Hall, a facility in Homewood City Hall. Also seems that Mayor Barry McCulley knocked down the cost of renting the two rooms. Normal fees: $1,250. Invoice to the McCain campaign: $300.

And one more thing: the usual $100 set-up fee. The mayor had two city jail inmates set up the rooms, for free. A McChain gang, someone said to me.

The Birmingham News brought this campaign curiosity to light.

I called Mayor McCulley to see if the News had gotten it right. "I'm sure you were shocked" by the story, he said. "So was I."

Continue reading "Presidential Politics From the Ground Up" »

1:49 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Sunday Soapbox Asks Why Do We Vote on Tuesdays

Last week we told you about Weekend Sunday Edition's new blogging feature, Sunday Soapbox.

Well, in that short week, we've already added a new blogger -- or should we say vlogger -- to the mix

Jacob Soboroff will be doing some video blogging for Sunday Soapbox. Jacob is executive director of Why Tuesday?, a non-partisan group working to increase voter participation. Jacob also contributes video reports about Los Angeles news, media and sense of place to LA Observed, and was a contributor to the PBS series Wired Science, a production of KCET Los Angeles and Wired magazine. In college Jacob was a part-time advance man to New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and presidential candidate Howard Dean.

Jacob's first piece is fascinating. It's about, well, why the U.S. votes on Tuesdays.

Did you know that since 1945 the U.S. ranks 139th of 172 countries in the world when it comes to voter turnout? (Do they have elections in the other 32?) And that the most common reason given by people for not voting is that they are too busy?

So why do we vote on Tuesdays anyway? Turns out that it's the result of a mid-19th century law designed to give people who worked in agrarian industries a chance to vote. Well, we don't live in an agrarian society any more, so why not move it to a day when more people can vote? Like Saturday?

Jacob set out to ask presidential candidates that very question. You can see the result here on Sunday Soapbox.

1:18 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

McCain Fields Questions About Iraq-New Orleans

It's a question that many Americans may have: why are we spending so much money in Iraq when there are so many needs at home?

And yesterday, during his visit to New Orleans, Sen. John McCain was asked that question twice.

The Times-Picayune reports that McCain, who was in New Orleans as part of his Time for Action tour, attacked the Bush administration for its handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. He even said that the blame went all the way to the president. As if to point the differences between himself and Bush, McCain said his first response the storm would have been to fly to the area immediately and inspect the damage. President Bush didn't go for several days and flew over the area.

But McCain was challenged by Jonathan Harris-Eisen, 15, of Amherst, Mass., a volunteer in the city's 9th ward. Harris-Eisen asked ""How would you prioritize Iraq (compared) with the rebuilding here, because we are spending a fraction of what we're spending in Iraq on this disaster?"

McCain didn't address the disparity of money spent on Iraq and storm recovery, but he spent the next few minutes explaining how his plan for Iraq was better than withdrawal strategies from Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

"He didn't answer my question on how we allocate funds," Harris-Eisen said.

And it wasn't the last time McCain heard this kind of question. Later in the day, at a town hall-style meeting at Xavier University, McCain was asked about cuts in education, in particular at historically black colleges.

"If we can find funds to fund this war in Iraq, we can find the funds for education," said Alex Brumfield, a pharmacy student .

McCain said he understood Brumfield's frustration, but that "he supports the current strategy in Iraq and believes curtailing wasteful spending and spurring economic growth -- not tax increases -- are the answer to financing education properly."

12:05 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Two Stations in N.C. Will Not Air Controversial Ad

Two North Carolina TV stations, one in Raleigh and one in Charlotte, say they won't run the controversial ad that attacks Sen. Barack Obama and the two Democrats running for governor. The ad, produced by the state's Republican Party, links together the Illinois senator and Rev. Jeremiah Wright and calls Obama too extreme for North Carolina. The ad also attacks the Democratic gubernatorial candidates for backing Obama.

"I just don't think it's appropriate to be on our air," said Joe Pomilla, general manager for WSOC-TV. "I think it's offensive, and I'm not real comfortable with the implications around race."

Pomilla said the station has declined other advertisements in the past. The station is not under a legal obligation to run the ad, as it might be if a candidate and not a party were sponsoring it.

The Charlotte Observer reports that Raleigh station WRAL has also said it won't run the ad. Republican Party spokesman Brent Woodcox said he was disappointed by the decisions of two stations not to air the ad.

Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, earlier this week sent a letter to the N.C. GOP and asked them not to air the ad. And yesterday one of his top aides, Charles Black, said that the said the party would pull the ad. But last night on All Things Considered, N.C. state GOP chairwoman Linda Davies said that even if McCain phoned her personally she would not pull the ad.

McCain added to the controversy this morning in an NBC interview, saying that the state's party was "out of touch with reality" over its refusal to pull the ad.

10:40 AM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post

 

Obama Has Small Lead Over Clinton in Indiana

The Democratic Indiana primary looks like it's going to be closer than anything of the races we've seen so far.

A new poll by the Indianapolis Star-WTHR shows that Sen. Barack Obama has a three-point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton -- 41% to 38% -- with a week and a half to go before the May 6th primary. But with a margin of error of 4%, it's basically a dead heat.

But here's the real news -- 21% of those poll said they are still undecided. That's enormous block of people who have yet to make up their minds. You can bet that Indiana residents will get tired of seeing political ads on TV in the next 10 days

There is good news for Obama in the poll that may hint that the undecideds could break his way. In a match up with Republican Sen. John McCain, Obama beats him 49% to 41%. But Clinton and McCain are in a tie 46%-46%. And, by 49 percent to 35 percent, Democratic primary voters said Obama is the candidate best able to win in the general election.

The poll found that voters age 18 to 35 favor Obama over Clinton 48 percent to 34 percent, while the oldest voters, age 55 and older, prefer Clinton 43 percent to 32 percent.Obama is winning urban and suburban voters, 47 percent to 33 percent, while Clinton wins the rural areas by more than 2-to-1: 55 percent to 20 percent. Clinton is doing well among white women, who back her 48 percent to 29 percent. Among all women, though, Obama is slightly edging her out 41 percent to 40 percent.

So why isn't McCain doing better in what has been a state that has long been in the GOP safe column. The answer may hint at problems that have plagued McCain since his campaign for the White House began?

Pollster J. Ann Selzer says many Hoosiers are not happy with the Bush administration's track record. And she said McCain's lack of strength also may reflect that he "doesn't have a consistent track record on the issues conservatives care most about" and may not be a good fit for conservative Republicans in Indiana.
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UPDATE: The South-Bend Tribune's new poll shows Obama with a one-point lead 48% to 47% (5% margin of error. But the poll continues to show that Clinton's negatives are much higher than Obama's. More than twice as many people -- 48% to 235 -- think Clinton is running the more negative campaign.

9:00 AM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Activist Warns Indian Vote Could Go to McCain

Kayln Free, an American Indian activist and a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention, has a warning for Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. They had better start paying attention to Indian issues, or they'll find that Sen. John McCain will pick up a lot of support that normally goes to the Democrats.

Free is president of the Tulsa-based INDN List and the INDN Education Fund. INDN stands for Indigenous Democratic Network. Her organization has been active in electing Indian candidates to office.

The Associated Press reports that Free is "still a little peeved over the failure of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to attend the INDN-sponsored presidential forum, known as the "Prez on the Rez," in California last August."

"I'm not going to hold a grudge, but I think it was a misstep and a slap in the face" to Indian tribes, Free said. "Unfortunately, Sen. Obama did not step up to the plate, either."

Free said McCain -- who is a member of the Senate's Indian Affairs Committee -- is regarded with respect by many Indians.

"Sen. McCain has a record with Indian country. He has carried a lot of water for tribes over the years. I think it is a grave mistake for the Democratic nominee or these two candidates to think that Indian Country will be there for them just because they are the Democratic nominee."

The AP asked Free is she has made up her mind about who to vote for yet. she said no, but wants to hear "more from the candidates about who is 'the most protective of tribal sovereignty and most respectful of Indian Country.' "

7:12 PM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Hagee Repeats Charge that Katrina Result of Gay "Sin"

One of the more eye-opening statements made by controversial Christian fundamentalist Pastor John Hagee -- and Sen. John McCain supporter -- was that Hurricane Katrina was the result of God being angry at the residents of the city because of a scheduled gay parade. Hagee originally made the statement to NPR's Terri Gross. (Hagee has also made lots of disparaging comments about other groups he doesn't like - Catholics in particular.)

McCain has repudiated some of Hagee's statements -- about Catholics -- but hasn't said he didn't want Hagee's endorsement.

Tuesday in an interview with conservative talk show host Dennis Prager Wednesday, Hagee repeated his comment about New Orleans.

HAGEE: ... What happened in New Orleans looked like the curse of God, in time if New Orleans recovers and becomes the pristine city it can become it may in time be called a blessing. But at this time it's called a curse.

McCain, who is in New Orleans today on his Time for Action tour, couldn't have been all that happy with the timing of Hagee's comments. That made it twice in two days that groups or individuals that support McCain sounded off in ways that he says make him uncomfortable.

1:56 PM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (27) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Quietly Works to Scoops Up Mich. Delegates

The Detroit News had a great piece on how Sen. Hillary Clinton has quietly worked to put herself in a position to get as many as 70 percent of the delegates from Michigan if they're allowed to attend the Democratic convention.

Susan J. Demas, a political analyst for Michigan Information & Research Service, writes in an opinion piece that Clinton was "rewarded this past weekend with a significant victory at the district conventions." If Clinton does win the nomination, Demas writes, it could be her work in Michigan that was the key factor.

Buoyed by party elder support, Clinton seems likely to capture more than 60 percent of the state's 128 pledged delegates, according to an analysis by the Michigan Information & Research Service. Including the 28 superdelegates, which lean heavily in the New York senator's favor, she could win upward of 70 percent of delegates, provided that they're seated with full voting power.

That depends on the Democratic National Committee, which punished Michigan for leapfrogging the primary schedule. There is no deal yet to seat the delegation. But the Clinton camp is working overtime to ensure the elected slate is sent. Keep in mind that Clinton won 55 percent to uncommitted's 40 percent since Obama wasn't on the ballot. He has pushed for a 50-50 percent delegate split, but that proposal hasn't gained traction.

Demas says Obama should have gone for a revote, because he would have done well in the state.

1:30 PM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

Andy of Mayberry Backs Democrat for Governor

With all the attention that is being paid to the Obama attack ad that is being aired by the North Carolina Republican Party starting this evening, this one kind of escaped notice.

It shows film and TV star Andy Griffith -- famous, of course, for playing rural Sheriff Andy Taylor in the famous (and many times re-run on TVLand) "The Andy Griffith Show," set in Mayberry, North Carolina -- making a pitch for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bev Perdue.

Here is the video;

But this gives rise to other questions ... who are Opie and Barney Fife supporting? (Aunt Bee has to be a Clinton supporter.) Not to mention Goober and Gomer.

12:42 PM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Not All Superdelegates Aren't Feeling So Super

In the latest round of the superdelegate arms race, Sen. Barack Obama yesterday picked up two more endorsements -- Okla. Gov. Brad Henry and Audra Ostergard, Associate Chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party. He also got the support of 49 former supporters of Sen. John Edwards but only three are superdelegates who've already said they are supporting him.

Meanwhile, Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up one new superdelegate, Tenn. Rep. John Tanner.

That gives Clinton 259 to Obama's 235.

You would think that superdelegates would be feeling pretty good about the position they are in; after all, about 800 people have been entrusted with the task of picking the person who in a few months may become the most powerful individual in the world.

But it ain't necessarily so.

As NPR's David Welna reports, not all are not happy to be in this position at this moment in time.

Missouri House Democrat Emanuel Cleaver also backs Clinton, even though Obama won his state and his Kansas City district. Caught between conflicting loyalties, Cleaver says he is not happy at all about being a superdelegate.

"We have a process that appears to be about as stupid as human beings could put in place," Cleaver said.

Do you envy superdelegates, wish you could be one? Or are you just as glad to leave the deciding to someone else?
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UPDATE: Obama scores first with a new superdelegate endorsement on Thursday. The Obama camp has just sent out an e-mail saying that Rep. David Wu of Oregon is supporting their candidate.

11:52 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Hillary Clinton and the "Bubba Factor"

Sen. Hillary Clinton is about as far from the stereotypical "Bubba" as you could imagine. And yet it is this very "Bubba factor" that offers her the best chance to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

For instance, look at this graphic of a "Decision Tree" that breaks down the way Democrats have voted in the primaries so far.

For instance, in counties where the high school graduation rate is less than 78 percent, Clinton has won 704 of them to Obama's 89. If the counties were in the South or Northeast, Clinton won 182-79. If they were in the Mid-West or the West, Clinton wins twice as many counties as Obama if fewer than 47% of the residents make less than $30,000 a year.

If at least 53% of residents earn more than $30,000 a year, live in a very rural area, and George Bush decisively beat John Kerry, Clinton wins these counties 48 to 13, while Obama did better in the traditional Democratic counties.

And Clinton and her campaign are very much playing up the "Bubba factor" in their campaigning. The Charlotte Observer reports that former President Bill Clinton relies on it as he campaigns in North Carolina for his wife.

Clinton, though, said he also enjoys a connection with more rural communities through his upbringing in Arkansas -- the "Bubba factor."

"I came from a poor state and a family with limited income," he told the crowd as he talked about college costs.

He said later in an interview that the smaller communities have fueled his wife's campaign, pointing out that she won an overwhelming number of counties in Pennsylvania and Texas, but they were the smaller ones.

"That's what's carrying her on," Clinton said. "This is America; the future of our country is embodied in all these communities. I went to 47 towns like this in Pennsylvania, and I've already been to 20 in North Carolina."

11:08 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Is Barack Obama the New George McGovern?

No offense to former Sen. George McGovern, but it's fair to say that no Democratic presidential candidate wants to be compared to him.

But in an article for The New Republic, writer John Judis says that the coalition of voters who support Obama is looking more and more like the one that supported McGovern in 1972.

Indeed, if you look at Obama's vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the '70s and '80s, led by college students and minorities. In Pennsylvania, Obama did best in college towns (60 to 40 percent in Penn State's Centre County) and in heavily black areas like Philadelphia.

Its ideology is very liberal. Whereas in the first primaries and caucuses, Obama benefited from being seen as middle-of-the-road or even conservative, he is now receiving his strongest support from voters who see themselves as "very liberal." In Pennsylvania, he defeated Clinton among "very liberal" voters by 55 to 45 percent, but lost "somewhat conservative" voters by 53 to 47 percent and moderates by 60 to 40 percent. In Wisconsin and Virginia, by contrast, he had done best against Clinton among voters who saw themselves as moderate or somewhat conservative.

But Jonathan Chait, who blogs at The New Republic's "The Plank" says his colleague is off-target.

Continue reading "Is Barack Obama the New George McGovern?" »

10:30 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Camp Says It Raised $10 Million Since Pa.

Using Sen. Hillary Clinton's 9-point victory in Pennsylvania to urge her supporters to pump more cash into her campaign, the Clinton camp says it is "on track" to raise $10 million since Tuesday, almost all of it off the Internet.

The New York Times reports that the money was desperately needed by the Clinton campaign.

While Mr. Obama had started April with more than $40 million, Mrs. Clinton's campaign was essentially broke, with millions of dollars in debt. Her dire financial straits had threatened to derail her campaign before her nine-point victory in Pennsylvania allowed her to make a fresh case to voters and party leaders that she would be the strongest Democratic presidential nominee.

The Clinton campaign was scrambling to milk the jump in contributions, transforming its home page to a donation page, something it had experimented with for several days last month with great success.

(There is no way to independently verify this yet.)

But there are also signs that Sen. Barack Obama commands a lot of financial support in the next two states with primaries, Indiana and North Carolina. The News Blog noted the other day that Obama had a 3-1 fundraising advantage in Indiana over Clinton.

And now the Raleigh News and Observer reports that Obama has a similar 3-1 fundraising advantage in North Carolina, receiving "$600,000 from North Carolinians in March, compared to just over $200,000 for Clinton. Obama got a big boost from the Triangle, particularly donors in Durham and Chapel Hill. He also tapped supporters of former N.C. Sen. John Edwards, who dropped his own presidential campaign in January."

8:47 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Pennsylvania's Political Grand Canyon

Pennsylvania has its own "Grand Canyon," a gorge 47 miles long and as much as 1400 feet deep. But that's nothing compared to the political gulf exposed by the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

"It tells me that the two candidates represent two different 'peoples,'" says Bill Bishop, author of The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-minded America is Tearing Us Apart.

"It also tells me that communities are tipping to one candidate or another, and that once that tipping begins, the vote becomes as much about community solidarity as it does political expression."

Bishop and geographer Tim Murphy analyzed the Pennsylvania vote county-by-county for the Daily Yonder, an online news outlet for the Center for Rural Strategies, a non-partisan group that tries to attract attention to rural issues.

Their findings indicate a deep division among Democrats that mirrors a national chasm between Democrats and Republicans.

The analysis measures the voting based on where voters live. It calculates the winning margins in rural, exurban and urban counties and indicates two very partisan and very different Democratic worlds in Pennsylvania.

Continue reading "Pennsylvania's Political Grand Canyon" »

8:05 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Ron Paul Shows He's Still Alive

It's like that old Monty Python skit; the voice of Texas Rep. Ron Paul drifts up somewhere from the pile of defeated presidential candidates and croaks "I'm not dead yet."

Paul is indeed far from dead. Sen. John McCain may be the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, but Paul is still out there fighting for every delegate and vote he can get. In Pennsylvania, he racked up an impressive 16 percent. The Boston Globe reports that Paul's "campaign bragged yesterday that 128,000 Pennsylvanians had voted for 'freedom,' and announced a rally tomorrow in Idaho, where Republicans go to the polls May 27."

While many of McCain's formal rivals are now campaigning for him, Paul intends to continue campaign right to the GOP convention in Minneapolis where he will take his message of limited government and opposition to the war in Iraq to the delegates.

(Hmmm. Any guesses on what time of the day that GOP convention planners would schedule a Paul speech?)

But Paul has always said that while he will fight hard, after the convention he'll support the winner - in this case McCain.

Perhaps more troubling for the Arizona senator were the number of votes cast for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Huckabee, who is not running any more, still got 11 percent of the vote in Pa.. Most of that vote comes from religious conservatives or others who have not made their peace with their presidential candidate. It's a sign that despite recent efforts to smooth over ruffled feathers with this group, it's not going exactly as planned.

7:50 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Spins Popular Vote By Adding Mich. and Fla.

A new day, a new spin.

Sen. Hillary Clinton is now telling people that the majority of the people who have voted in the Democratic presidential contest have voted for her. Sounds like she surged into the lead after Pennsylvania, doesn't it?

But it's not true. Clinton's particular vote count includes Michigan and Florida. But as we all know, those votes don't count because the states were disqualified by the Democratic National Committee for ignoring the agreed upon rules about moving their primaries up too early. Obama leads by about 500,000 votes in the states that are actually being counted in the final total.

(Not only that Clinton's total also excludes caucus states -- most of which were won by Obama -- that did not report raw popular votes. I guess those states don't have people, just caucus goers.)

For instance, communications director Howard Wolfson was making the argument on Talk of the Nation today.

ABC News might have accidentally helped this unofficial version of the popular vote account along. In today's edition of "The Note," Rick Klein wrote that "By one (rightly disputed) metric -- the popular vote, including Florida and Michigan -- Clinton has pulled ahead of Obama. But without the rogue states, Obama is still up by 500,000 -- and if you can find another objective measurement by which she's in the lead, let us know."

The Clinton camp jumped on this and started saying Clinton was leading in the popular vote according to ABC.

Jake Tapper at ABC's Political Punch blog responded by saying that the Clinton campaign had misrepresented the ABC report. The Clinton people pushed back. But then so did Tapper, who continues to say the Clinton campaign is misrepresenting what the ABC blogger said.

Wasn't Karl Rove the one who talked about not being a part of the reality-based community, and just making up your own narrative?

5:56 PM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (29) | e-mail post

 

Sen. McCain Tells N.C. GOP to Dump Anti-Obama Ad

Sen. John McCain is not happy. But it's not the Democrats who have provoked his ire. It's the North Carolina Republican party.

Earlier today, the party debuted an ad that attacks Sen. Barack Obama about his relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com called it "not blunt, not subtle, not terribly creative, and is misleading in that it suggests that Obama was present for the sermon it shows Rev. Wright delivering. ('God damn America!')."

The target of the ad was not just Obama but Democratic gubernatorial candidates Richard Moore and Beverly Perdue because they have endorsed Obama.

Here is the ad:

But McCain would have none of it.

He sent this letter to Linda Daves, chairwoman of the N.C. GOP party:

Dear Chairman Daves,

From the beginning of this election, I have been committed to running a respectful campaign based upon an honest debate about the great issues confronting America today. I expect all state parties to do so as well. The television advertisement you are planning to air degrades our civics and distracts us from the very real differences we have with the Democrats. In the strongest terms, I implore you to not run this advertisement.

This ad does not live up to the very high standards we should hold ourselves to in this campaign. We need to run a campaign that is worthy of the people we seek to serve. There is no doubt that we will draw sharp contrasts with the Democrats on fundamental issues critical to the future course of our country. But we need not engage in political tactics that only seek to divide the American people.

Once again, it is imperative that you withdraw this offensive advertisement.

John McCain

The RNC has also asked the North Carolina party to dump the ad.

McCain has consistently said that he wants to run a clean campaign, so in some ways it's not surprising. But this is a win-win-win situation for him.

He looks good for sticking to his principles. He draws a distinction between himself and Sen. Hillary Clinton, who is being accused of being too negative. And he ensures that the topic of the ad -- the Obama-Wright connection -- gets more air time.
---
UPDATE: The N.C. GOP has basically told McCain and the RNC to take a hike. The Raleigh News and Observer says that the state party will air the ad, despite the complaints from their Republican colleagues.

"We think this is a legitimate question to ask, and we don't think we're the only ones asking it," said Brent Woodcox, communications director for the state Republican Party. "We feel this is a North Carolina issue."

12:54 PM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (22) | e-mail post

 

Clinton's Victory in Pa. 9 Percentage Points, Not 10

It's a little thing, a single percentage point, but when such a big deal has been made about a double-digit victory for Sen. Hillary Clinton, it has some significance.

For most of the morning, the media (News Blog included) have been referring to Clinton's 10-point victory in Pennsylvania, citing a 55 percent to 45 percent vote total.

But that's actually not correct.

That 10-point figure is probably coming from people rounding up percentages to the nearest whole number. The actual figures, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state's Web site, are 54.6 percent for Clinton and 45.4 percent for Obama. Doing a little math, that's a 9.2-point difference. And if we round out that number, we get 9 percentage points. (That's with 99.44 percent of districts reporting, 9,212 out of 9,264.)

Again, it's a little thing, and it doesn't change the fact that Clinton won an important victory. But if these figures hold -- and there is not much room for change -- it denies Clinton the opportunity to say she won a double-digit victory in Pennsylvania, and it gives Obama the chance to say he kept her vote total below that figure.

12:00 PM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (61) | e-mail post

 

Pa. Outcome Shows Dems Break into Two Groups

After Tuesday's outcome in Pennsylvania, it looks increasingly like the Democrats face a serious problem - they have two branches within their larger party, divided by age, race and religion, each with their own favored candidate for president.

The preferred candidate of African-Americans, those under the age of 45, the well-educated, first-time voters, determined Iraq war opponents, and those not particularly religious is Sen. Barack Obama. His message of change and hope resonates with this group.

Meanwhile, voters who are above between 45 (particularly above 60), white, blue-collar, Hispanic, Catholic, who don't embrace the idea of change as enthusiastically as younger voters, and may be uncomfortable with the idea of a black president but not with a woman one, support Hillary Clinton. They see her as a stable, experienced leader who can better represent the things they care about.

If you look at the exit polls in Pennsylvania and Ohio, the divide become painfully obvious. And it's a problem for both camps, as McClatchy reports:

"Clinton still can't break Obama's hold on black and young voters. He won 92 percent of the black vote, according to exit polls, and between 56 percent and 58 percent of voters under 45. Similarly, however, Obama can't shake that a lot of whites are uncomfortable with a black as president, as exit polls showed him losing the white vote by 60-40 percent -- a consistent trend in recent primaries.

"Yet Clinton's harsh campaign may be turning Obama's flaws into open wounds that prove difficult to heal by November. And so, the party is left again in a stalemate without apparent end."

This may be why party leaders like DNC chairman Howard Dean have recently suggested that it's time for superdelegates to make up their minds and pick a candidate to support.

10:26 AM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (19) | e-mail post

 

McCain Tells Voters to Ignore "Siren Song of Protectionism"

Taking a completely different tone than his Democratic rivals, NPR's Scott Horsley reports that Sen. John McCain Tuesday stood in front of a shuttered factory in Youngstown, Ohio and told Americans that they needed to ignore the "siren song of protectionism" and embrace free trade.

Later in the day at a town hall meeting, McCain said he couldn't look local workers in the eye and say the factories are coming back, nor could he tell textile works in South Carolina that those jobs are coming back. But he said he could tell them if he is elected president, he will bring in programs that will help them be better educated and prepared for the new global economy and that will lead to better jobs.

It was an unusual place to make a pitch for free trade; as McClatchy reports Youngstown has lost "40,000 jobs since its signature steel industry collapsed in the 1970s and '80s. Its population is less than half its peak of 170,000 in the 1950s. About 25 percent of those who remain live below the poverty line."

But McCain won't change his tune on free trade because it may be an unpopular stance in the Rust-Belt region of the Mid-West.

"I've met too many people who've been displaced as a result of free trade to say, 'Aww, it's all been good for our economy, don't worry about it,' " McCain said according to McClatchy. "But I think the adjustment is not to erect barriers and protectionism. I think the answer is to understand that free trade or not, we are in an information technology revolution. ... We've got to be part of that new economy rather than trying to cling to an old economy."

9:04 AM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

New York Times' Editorial Says Clinton 'Too Negative'

In an editorial in The New York Times -- which earlier this year endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton as the best presidential choice for the Democrats -- the paper took both candidates to task for their negative tactics in the Pennsylvania primary. But the paper was particularly hard on Clinton

"It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election."

The editorial criticized Clinton for using tactics "torn from Karl Rove's playbook" to win in Pennsylvania.

"By staying on the attack and not engaging Mr. Obama on the substance of issues like terrorism, the economy and how to organize an orderly exit from Iraq, Mrs. Clinton does more than just turn off voters who don't like negative campaigning. She undercuts the rationale for her candidacy that led this page and others to support her: that she is more qualified, right now, to be president than Mr. Obama."

Exit polls in Pennsylvania showed that 68 percent of voters thought that Clinton attacked Obama unfairly. But it's going to be hard to convince Clinton to change her approach - the exit polls also show that Clinton beat Obama by 58-42 percent among voters who decided in the last few days before the vote.

8:05 AM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Okla. Governor to Endorse Obama

And the first person to pick up a new superdelegate after Sen. Hillary Clinton's 9 point victory in Pennsylvania last night is ... Sen. Barack Obama.

The Oklahoman reports that Gov. Brad Henry, who earlier this year said he would not endorse a presidential candidate until this summer's convention, will announce his support for Obama.

"Senator Obama is uniquely positioned to unite our nation and move beyond the divisiveness and partisan skirmishes that too often characterize politics as usual in Washington," said Henry, who is in the middle of his second term.

Clinton won the Democratic primary in Oklahoma over Obama, 55% to 31%.
---
Tom Note: Several people have written to note that according to the most current figures available at the Pennslyvania Secretary of State Web site, Clinton's margin of victory was not 10 points but smaller. They are correct. According to the site, the margin of victory is 9.2%. As a result, we've changed the reference above.

7:20 AM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Clinton's Hunt For Pledged Delegate Lead 'Over'

NBC's Chuck Todd just made an interesting statement on TV. Sen. Hillary Clinton's chance to win the pledged delegate category is basically over after Pennsylvania.

Here's why ...

As the News Blog noted earlier today, Clinton might pick up 10 more delegates than Sen. Barack Obama tonight. Not a lot. And it's likely that Obama will make up much of that loss in North Carolina. Indiana will likely be close as well.

And that means Clinton will need to win more than 80 percent of the remaining votes in the primaries after May 6th. And that is not going to happen.

That means the contest becomes a battle for the popular vote and superdelegates.

Here is Clinton's other problem: her main argument becomes "See, I can win the big states we need." (Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, however, said on All Things Considered that performance in the primaries is not an indicator of performance in the fall -- in fact, in the big states that Clinton has won in the primaries, Obama polls just as well against Sen. John McCain as does Clinton.)

But if Obama wins the popular vote (which still appears likely), the pledged delegates, and a greater number of states than Clinton, will the superdelegates basically ignore those factors? And if they do, how will Democratic voters who voted for Obama react?

It's on to North Carolina and Indiana.

10:08 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

NPR Calls Pennsylvania for Clinton

NPR's election desk is predicting that Sen. Hillary Clinton will win tonight's Pennsylvania primary.

Now it's all about the final margin of victory. Currently Clinton is leading Obama 53% to 47%.

8:57 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Needs to Raise Money, Fast, to Continue

For Sen. Hillary Clinton, it's all about the Benjamins now.

Even if Clinton does win tonight, there is one reality of politics that she cannot escape - she's out of money and in debt.

So you can bet that she'll use a victory in tonight's primary -- regardless of the margin -- to try and raise money, in particular on the Internet - normally Obama's territory. That's why she's been mentioning her website whenever she can.

You can look at his strategy this way: he outspent her 3-1, maybe 4-1 in the weeks before the primary. He might lose, but he forced Clinton to spend a lot of money, maybe too much. And he still he lots of money left.

8:51 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Men Go for Obama, Women Prefer Clinton in Pa.

More from the exit polls:

Men went for Obama by 53%-47% (42 percent of those who voted), while women preferred Clinton 55%-45% (58 percent of those who voted).

Younger voters went for Obama and older voters went for Clinton: 18-29 year olds (10 percent of the voters) go for Obama 58% to 42%, he also takes the 30-44 year-old sector 56%-44% (17 percent of voters); Clinton captured the 45-59 year-old bracket 51%-49% (35 percent of voters) and really went to town on those over 60 years-old, 61% to 38% (27 percent of voters.)

More than 90 percent of all African-American voters went for Obama.

8:08 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

No Quick Winner in Pennsylvania So Far

In a bit of a surprise, none of the major networks have called the election for Sen. Hillary Clinton.

NBC is calling it too close to call. CNN is calling it competitive.

Tim Russert of NBC says that this is a bit of a disappointment for Clinton, who wanted the networks to come on at eight and say "Big blow-out victory for Clinton."

8:00 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Obama Supporters Handing Out McDonald's Vouchers

Remember the News Blog's recent piece about "street money" in Philadelphia and how Obama was reluctant to pay it out to ward leaders to give to Obama poll workers? Well, it's not quite "street money" but pro-Obama ward leaders are handing out free McDonald's vouchers.

Here's an interview with one via Election Journal:

Does that come with fries?

7:44 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Exit Polls Show Few Undecided, Voters Shun Negativity

Despite all the talk about "undecideds" it seems that most voters in Pennsylvania made up their minds well before going to the polls today.

ABCNews reports that "nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago -- a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date."

Meanwhile two-thirds of voters say that Sen. Clinton attacked Sen. Obama unfairly, while one-half say that Obama went after Clinton unfairly.

And here are two statistics that might give Obama pause - "nearly six in 10 voters are women, which if it holds in final data will be a high for Pennsylvania, though about what it's been in all Democratic primaries this year. Turnout among African-Americans could be lower than it's been overall this year; it'll take updates later tonight to see whether it does or does not exceed the Pennsylvania primary record, 17 percent in 1988 and 1984."

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Pennsylvania said that 52 percent of the 4.2 million Democrats registered to vote have voted so far today. In the 2004 primary, only 27 percent of those registered went to the polls.

7:21 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Clinton Says a Victory Is a Victory, Regardless of Size

Hillary Clinton began her day greeting supporters at a polling station in Conshohocken, just outside Philadelphia. The Philly suburbs are a crucial battleground in this race.

The candidate told reporters during the stop that there should be no talk of her having to win big in Pennsylvania to declare a true victory.

"I think a win is a win -- maybe I'm old-fashioned about that," she said, before trying to shift pressure to her opponent, Barack Obama. "I think maybe the question ought to be why can't he close the deal? With his extra financial advantage, why can't he win a state like this one, if that's the way it turns out?"

As for Obama's fundraising advantage, Clinton insisted she'll have the money she needs to fight on to other states -- even if her campaign is currently in debt.

"We'll have enough," she said. "But I give him credit. He has a tremendous base of donors... and I hope everyone will go to Hillaryclinton.com and make a contribution today, so we can build on what I hope will happen in Pennsylvania and go forward."

She refused to comment on a remark her husband made to a radio station in Philadelphia. Former President Bill Clinton told WHYY on Monday that Obama's campaign "played the race card on me" after the South Carolina primary.

The former president has previously complained that he was unfairly attacked by Obama surrogates in January, after the former president compared Obama's win in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson's 1984 and 1988 victories in the state.

Hillary Clinton today refused to answer two questions about her husband's comment. "We're gonna stay focused on what voters are focused on," she said.

After chatting with reporters, Sen. Clinton made an unplanned stop. Her campaign said that while visiting the polling station, Clinton bumped into the owner of Boccella's -- a restaurant around the corner -- and learned that they make a famous neighborhood cheesesteak.

Clinton took the walk to the restaurant, greeted surprised employees and left with a take-out cheesesteak in a white paper bag.

-- David Greene

2:59 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

The Confusing Delegate Count in Pennsylvania

Most polls are predicting that Sen. Hillary Clinton will win today's Pennsylvania primary. Much of the discussion has centered on the size of her victory and the message that it will send to superdelegates.

There is a reason for the Clinton campaign to focus on the size of the popular vote victory, rather than the number of delegates awarded to each candidate. It's very likely she'll only pick up 10 to 15 delegates on Sen. Barack Obama, which he is just as likely to take back in North Carolina on May 6, while splitting in Indiana.

Which would leave the race right where it was before Pennsylvania.

The Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies used the final poll averages from Pollster.com -- 49 percent to 43 percent for Clinton -- and how they were spread around the state (we'll explain why that is important below) and determined that if these numbers hold, Clinton will win 84 delegates and Obama, 74. And even if her victory is larger, it might mean five more delegates in her column.

As Congressional Quarterly notes, "Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the party's national convention in Denver this August, and most of them -- 103 to be exact -- will be allocated according to the votes the candidates receive in each of the state's 19 congressional districts."

That's good news for Obama, because a majority of the state's congressional districts are in and around the two areas where he is expected to do very well -- Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Indeed, when CQ breaks down the delegate count district by district, Clinton picks up 53 delegates and Obama, 50. Of the remaining 84 slots, 55 pledged delegates will be distributed based on the statewide popular vote, with the state's remaining 29 seats going to superdelegates.

And doing a little math, 49 percent of 55 is 27 more delegates for Clinton, while 43 percent produces 24 for Obama. (How the other four delegates would work, we're not sure. Readers, any ideas?)

Using CQ's numbers and our math breakdown, Clinton ends up with 80 delegates and Obama with 74 -- four yet to be determined -- almost the same as CCPS.

Here is more from the Philadelphia Inquirer on how it all works.

So don't be surprised if after the primary tonight, the delegate count moves very little.

2:48 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Obama Takes Shot at ABC Debate Moderators

In his appearance last night on Jon Stewart's The Daily Show on Comedy Central, Sen. Barack Obama managed to get in a not-so-subtle dig at the moderators of last Wednesday's debate on ABC.

After some conversation at the beginning of the interview, Stewart said that the real issue in the election wasn't flag pins or the Rev. Jeremiah Wright:

"Sir, we are concerned, that ultimately at the end of the day, if you are fortunate enough to win the Democratic nomination, if you are fortunate enough to become president of the United States, will you pull a bait and switch, sir, and enslave the white race? Is that your plan? And if it is your plan, be honest! Tell us now!"

Obama laughed and said, "That is not our plan, Jon. But I think your paranoia might make you suitable as a debate moderator."

Ouch. Take that, George and Charlie!

Here is Part One of the Obama appearance:

And here is Part Two:

12:48 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

S.C. Pastor Asks If Osama, Obama Are 'Brothers'

Sen. Barack Obama has been raked over the coals for his relationship with his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Critics said it was impossible for Obama to attend Trinity Church in Chicago for 20 years and not know about some of the more controversial statements that Wright made. They said Obama knew that Wright was controversial enough that he called his pastor and uninvited him to the launch of Obama's presidential campaign.

So why do some of these critics also accuse Obama of being a Muslim, even as they whack him for attending the same Christian church for 20 years?

For instance, WYFF in Greenville, S.C., reports that Roger Byrd, the pastor at a small church in Jonesville, put up a message outside his church that reads, "Obama, Osama. Hmm. Are they brothers?" Byrd swears the message wasn't meant to be racial or political, just to get people thinking.

"It's simply to cause people to realize and to see what possibly could happen if we were to get someone in there that does not believe in Jesus Christ," he said.

When asked if he believes that Barack Obama is Muslim, Byrd said, "I don't know. See it asks a question: Are they brothers? In other words, is he Muslim? I don't know. He says he's not. I hope he's not. But I don't know. And it's just something to try to stir people's minds. It was never intended to hurt feelings or to offend anybody."

Byrd says he's leaving the sign up because he doesn't want to look like he backed down. He says he asked his congregation Sunday and they said it should stay.

12:28 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (25) | e-mail post

 

Early Turnout in Philadelphia Could Hint at Outcome

It all seems to come down to the City of Brotherly Love. Sen. Barack Obama and his campaign officials have already said they don't expect to win today's primary. But the big question is: Can they avoid a blowout and make it a contest?

For several weeks now, reporters and pundits have been talking about how the turnout in Philadelphia will shape the outcome in today's Pennsylvania primary. As the News Blog reported yesterday, Democratic registration in Philadelphia and the five counties surrounding the city has been vigorous and many of these new voters are seen as Obama supporters.

If turnout in Philadelphia is heavy, especially early in the day, Politico.com says that's good news for Obama and troubling news for Clinton. That's because African-Americans tend to go to the polls later in the day in the city. So if there is already a big turnout, before the group expected to vote heavily for Obama even goes to the polls, it means those new voters are coming out in big numbers.

If turnout in Philadelphia is not heavy, that means that Clinton may get her much-needed double-digit victory.
---
UPDATE: The Philadelphia Inquirer features a constantly updated blog written by various reporters spread across the city and suburbs. Worth reading for a sense of what's happening in the city.

Meanwhile, Election Journal is using Twitter feeds and Flickr to keep folks updated.

9:23 AM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Obama Out-Fundraises Clinton 3-1 in Indiana in March

The last poll in Indiana showed Sen. Barack Obama leading by 5 points. But if the race were being decided on fundraising in the Hoosier State, it would be a runaway victory for the Illinois senator.

The Indianapolis Star reports that "Obama raised nearly three times as much money from Indiana last month as Hillary Rodham Clinton did, according to their most recent disclosure reports filed with the Federal Election Commission."

In March, Obama raised $218,865 to Clinton's $79,622, despite the fact that Clinton has the backing of most of the Democratic establishment in the state. Overall, Obama has raised $883,375 in Indiana since the race began, compared with $664,254 raised by Clinton.

"Only individuals giving more than $200 have to be identified by name, occupation and address on the disclosure reports. From those contributors, GOP candidates have raised a combined $1.8 million, while Democratic candidates raised a combined $1.4 million from the GOP-leaning state ... Clinton has moderately out-raised Obama among people giving $2,000 or more, while Obama has raised twice as much as Clinton among people giving $200 or less."

9:00 AM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Both Candidates Looking for Victories in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania voters head to the polls today in the first Democratic primary voting in six weeks. Pennsylvania is by far the most delegate-rich state remaining on the primary calendar.

With weeks of no voting, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama had a chance to dig in in Pennsylvania. They campaigned in every corner of the state and spent millions of dollars on campaign ads.

Obama is hoping to emerge from today's primary as the clear front-runner in the Democratic race. Clinton is hoping a solid performance in Pennsylvania will send a message to superdelegates that she can win the big states that will be pivotal in November's general election.

In Pennsylvania, only Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary. But voters were able to register up until last month, and the state party reported more than 300,000 new names ahead of today's primary.

-- David Greene

5:12 AM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Clinton and Obama Sprint Across Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama sprinted across Pennsylvania today, looking for votes a day before an important primary here. Tomorrow will be the first time Democrats vote in a primary contest in six weeks.

Clinton was hitting the major television markets on this last day of campaigning. She appeared with former President Bill Clinton in a plaza in downtown Pittsburgh. The senator pointed to comments from her opponent, Barack Obama, about political frustrations during the Clinton presidency.

"You know sometimes in this campaign people criticize the 1990s, and that's fair,' said Clinton. "You can say whatever you want in a campaign. But I always wonder, what is it they didn't like, the peace or the prosperity? How do we get back to those days?"

The Clinton campaign meanwhile released a last minute ad in Pennsylvania. It shows images of Osama bin Laden, and Hurricane Katrina, and asks "Who do you think has what it takes" to be president.

-- David Greene

9:03 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Moyers on Wright, Rendell on Farrakhan

This coming Friday, Rev. Jeremiah Wright will be making his first national TV appearance since controversy about his time as pastor of Sen. Barack Obama's church first erupted. PBS announced today that Wright will appear on "Bill Moyers Journal" this coming Friday night.

Wright became a subject of the presidential campaign when videos snippets taken from longer sermons showed he had said several inflammatory things over the years.

Wright is also expected to be the keynote speaker this Friday at the Detroit branch of the NAACP's 53rd Annual Fight for Freedom Fund dinner. The dinner draws about 10,000 people.

Meanwhile another controversial figure, Louis Farrakhan, head of the Nation if Islam, has popped up again. But this time it's not for a connection to Obama, but to Penn. Gov. Ed Rendell, one of Hillary Clinton's most enthusiastic supporters. A video making the rounds on political blogs shows Rendell giving praise to both Farrakhan and the Nation of Islam.

Back in 1997, when he was mayor of Philadelphia, Rendell -- who is Jewish -- was the principal organizer of the ""A Solution Too Heal The Racial Divide" rally at which Farrakhan was the keynote speaker.

"Thank you for what you stand for and the good it does for so many people in Philadelphia," Rendell said about the Nation of Islam in his speech at the conference. "This is a faith that doesn't just talk about family values, it lives family values."

At the time, the Jewish News Weekly reported that the Jewish community was "boiling" over Rendell's invitation to Farrakhan.

Earlier this year, Sen. Hillary Clinton sharply criticized Obama because of Wright's connections to Farrakhan.

Here is the video of Rendell's speech:

UPDATE: Andew Sullivan of theAtlantic.com has this comment on the Rendell-Farrakhan video:

"One thought that this video inevitably raises: what if Obama had ever said such a thing or been to such an event? Given what we know now about this campaign, would it not be the conventional wisdom that it would be the end of his candidacy? And yet, Rendell is still a pillar of the Democratic party, central to the Clintons' Pennsylvania strategy, and praised as a classic old-style white ethnic pol. I don't imagine his credibility or reputation will be affected one iota by this. Even if it were Rendell running for president this year, I don't think this video would have Hannity and O'Reilly and Steyn and Coulter in a lather.

"What do we learn from this? That Obama has to be even more distanced from these things because he's black. That's all. Race matters. The double standard endures. And the MSM perpetuates it. As do the Clintons."

5:50 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (27) | e-mail post

 

North Carolina Democratic Debate Cancelled

CBS and the North Carolina Democratic Party have announced that Sunday night's debate between Clinton and Obama is canceled. Obama refused to commit to the date.

Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com reports that the Obama camp wanted to stay away from the debate because "they did not want to give Hillary Clinton any excuse to stay in the race beyond Tuesday, assuming she doesn't fare that well."

4:47 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Leads in Penn, But Obama Gains Nationally

Many years ago, then-Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker was asked what he thought about opinion polls. "Polls are for dogs," he replied.

Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama might be thinking the same thing today. Polls have blossomed like flowers -- or weeds, depending on your point of view -- and everybody seems to have one.

For instance, there are several polls that are taking the temperature of Pennsylvanian voters before tomorrow's primary.

Quinnipiac, who has been polling in the state for many years, finds Clinton with a seven-point lead - basically unchanged over the past three weeks.

"Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama's campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

But wait, there's more ...

Suffolk University has Clinton up by ten, 52% to 42%. Mason Dixon has Clinton by five, 48% to 43%. Zogby has it 48% to 42% for Clinton. SurveyUSA had Clinton by six, 50% to 44%. CNN's "poll of polls" had Clinton up by seven 50% to 43%. Robo-pollsters Strategic Vision has Clinton by seven 48% to 41%, and PPP has Obama by three, 49% to 46%.

Take a deep breath ...

Nationally, it's a completely different story.

The Gallup Daily Tracking poll has Obama ahead among Democrats nationally 49% to 42%, (Last Friday, Clinton had pulled ahead by one point after the Wednesday night debate, but Obama recovered quickly.) The USA Today-Gallup poll (which is not the same as a tracking poll) has Obama ahead by 10 points, 50% to 40%. And in a real stunner, Newsweek's poll released on Friday had Obama ahead nationally by 19 points, 54% to 35%.

And then there is Obama and Clinton versus McCain ...

3:46 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Obama, Clinton Attack Each Other in "Kitchen War" Ads

Maybe future historians will refer to the 2008 Democratic nomination race as the "Kitchen War."

Back in February, an unnamed Hillary Clinton aide told reporters that her campaign was going to engage in a "kitchen sink" strategy against Barack Obama -- as in, they were going to throw everything at him but. Obama himself recently picked up the expression, talking about how he was the target of Clinton's "kitchen sink" approach... just another example, in his mind, of the "old politics" he says he wants to get away from.

Obama's ads have echoed this. They don't use the term "kitchen sink" -- a little too inside-baseball, for a TV ad -- but the point is the same:

Obama's ad is here.

The ad ends, "Eleventh hour smears, paid for by lobbyists' money. Isn't that exactly what we need to change?"

Ouch. For Clinton supporters, that sounds annoyingly sanctimonious... and maybe a little bit like whining.

And it plays perfectly into Clinton's theme that Obama just isn't tough enough for the job. And thus, the "kitchen" theme again -- this time in a Clinton counter-attack ad:

"Harry Truman said it best. 'If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.' Who do you think has what it takes?'"

If you watch TV in Pennsylvania tonight, you're going to see this ad.

So here's a question: Just how fast can Obama produce a response? If money can buy speed, then watch this space....

-- Martin Kaste
------
UPDATE: Martin called it ... here's the Obama reponse:

3:00 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

McCain Camp Gets Grumpy with Media

Hell hath no fury like Sen. John McCain's campaign annoyed at the press.

On Sunday, the Washington Post ran an article about McCain's legendary temper tantrums. McCain has had shouting matches with several of his own Republican colleagues over the years, and has often mentioned these outbursts himself. The question posed by the Post was do these outbursts affect his ability to be president?

The McCain camp was not pleased. The Los Angeles Times "Top of the Ticket" blog reports that former McCain adviser Mark Salter, who was one of the sources used by Post reporter Michael Leahy in the story, wrote to Ramesh Ponnuru, one of the writers at The Corner blog on NationalReview.com, to say he strongly disagreed with the way that Leahy wrote the story.

"The piece is 99% fiction. [Reporter Michael] Leahy is a nice guy, but the story was one of the more dishonest I've read in a while. I talked to him for over two hours. Some of the instances, like the Bob Smith one, he never even raised with me so I could respond. For others, he declined to print my rebuttal.

"He used my quotes in ways that made them seem as if I were confirming his thesis when I insisted that McCain's temper is no greater than the average person's, and that I personally know 20 or 25 Senators with much worse tempers."

First Read reports that this is the McCain campaign's plan to deal with "a much more hostile press than they ever imagined."

"The question is whether the campaign will grow thicker skin or whether the relationship between McCain and the media will simply deteriorate. One other thing: The pushback on the story was bizarre for another reason. It may have been a story that was somewhat ignored in the runup to Pennsylvania and, frankly, the premise wasn't all that new. In fact, McCain has become very adept at answering this question. But the Salter response was so brutal, it almost dares folks to find stories on McCain's temper -- something we're guessing most of the press corps wasn't all that interested in pursuing."

Daring the media to find stories is a bad idea. (Just ask former Democratic Sen. Gary Hart.)

2:06 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (17) | e-mail post

 

"Obama Minute" Looks to Raise a Million in a Minute

Scott Cohen swears he's never donated to a political campaign in his life. But watching this year's Democratic primary, "Barack really woke the citizen in me," he says.

So about nine days ago, Cohen -- a filmmaker and photographer in New York -- and a group of friend decided they wanted to try and raise a million dollars in a minute for Obama. So they started networking their address book and told their friends to work their address books and they told everyone to go to the Obama campaign site at 1 p.m. on April 21st (today) and make a donation.

"First we checked with the Obama site to make sure their servers could handle it, and they said they could," Cohen told the News Blog.

It's an idea that Ron Paul fans will be familiar with. Paul's loyal followers organized several similar events -- normally over a period of 24 hours -- that raised many millions for the Texas Republican presidential candidate. (Remember, Paul still hasn't withdrawn from the campaign yet.)

When we talked to Cohen at around 12:45, 3000 people had already donated about $170,000. Cohen said he thought that some people would come early and after after the minute. (Here is there money "thermometer.")

While it is a bit of a stunt, it's also an enormously important selling point for the Obama campaign with superdelegates - the ability to raise very large sums of money very quickly.

We'll have an update later on how they do.

12:56 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

It's All About the Numbers in Pennsylvania

No matter how many ways you look at it, it still comes down to what the superdelegates will decide to do. That's because for all the stories about "bitter" small town residents of Pennsylvania, or the atmospherics of knocking back beers with locals, or connections to 60s radicals, none of it changes the actual math. And the math is brutal for Sen. Hillary Clinton.

And as Bloomberg News points out, the math says it is almost impossible for Sen. Clinton to catch Sen. Obama in either pledged delegates or popular vote.

"After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him.

"Clinton needs blowout numbers,'' says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with either campaign. "The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.'"

Clinton's best hope to sway superdelegates is a possible win in the popular vote. But even that is going to be difficult, as Bloomberg points out "... Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon -- a prospect that's not at all certain."

One reason that prospect is uncertain is that Obama has a enormous money advantage over Clinton in the primaries.

The New York Times reports that Clinton really needs a double-digit victory to make a big dent in Obama's popular vote total. But if he only gets a mid-single digit win, it "might not be impressive enough to claim fresh momentum, but it would likely be sufficient for her to continue limping around the primary track."

NPR's Nancy Cook reports that if the margin of victory is only in the low- to middle- single digits, Obama could claim a "moral victory, and that would leave the situation "muddled as ever."

And it all still leads back to the superdelegates.

Both camps picked up superdelegates over the weekend. The Obama camp is the first one out of the chute this morning: Ohio superdelegate and DNC member Enid Goubeaux is now on record for Obama.

12:27 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

McCain Hails Civil Rights Marchers in Selma

Sen. John McCain started his "Time for Action Tour" today in Selma, Alabama, where he praised Democratic Rep. John Lewis, one of the leaders of the 1965 Selma to Montgomery march, and his fellow marchers for their courage.

"That evening, millions of Americans watched in stunned silence as ABC News broadcast the clash of might against right. They watched brave John Lewis fall. They watched the marchers -- peaceful, purposeful, loving, kneeling in humble resistance -- scattered and overrun by the troopers, who struck them with clubs and whips, chased them as they fled, trampled them beneath their horses' hooves. They watched old men and women fall. They saw dignified people claiming only their constitutional rights; affirming the promise of the Declaration of Independence without anger, malice or the least threat of violence, whipped and clubbed for their patriotism. They watched, and were ashamed of their country. And they knew that the people who had tried to cross the Edmund Pettus Bridge weren't a mob; they weren't a threat; they weren't revolutionaries. They were people who believed in America; in the promise of America. And they believed in a better America. They were patriots; the best kind of patriots" ...

"When I care about something," John Lewis wrote, "I'm prepared to take the long, hard road." I've seen courage in action on many occasions in my life, but none any greater or used for any better purpose than the courage shown by John Lewis and the good people who marched for justice with him. All his life, John Lewis has believed in Dr. King's concept of the "beloved community;" a country "not hateful, not violent, not uncaring . . . not separated, not polarized, not adversarial."

The Associated Press reports that the speech in Selma is the start of "a weeklong tour of communities he said are suffering from poverty and inattention from presidential candidates." (Although Selma itself hasn't lacked for attention - last year Senators Clinton and Obama, along with former President Bill Clinton all visited to mark the anniversary of the march.) After Alabama, McCain goes to Youngstown, Ohio, eastern Kentucky and New Orleans' Ninth Ward, an area devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

10:13 AM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Obama: "Any One of the 3 of Us Better Than Bush"

It's spinning season in Pennsylvania.

The Allentown Morning Call reports that Sunday Sen. Barack Obama told a "rowdy" crowd in central Pennsylvania, "You have a real choice in this election. Either Democrat would be better than John McCain. And all three of us would be better than George Bush. But you have to ask yourself who has the chance to really change things in a fundamental way.''

Sen. Hillary Clinton jumped on this remark: 'We need a nominee who will take on John McCain, not cheer on John McCain."

Clinton campaign organizers said Obama's remarks undercut Democratic efforts to tie McCain to Bush.

But Obama is not actually the first person to voice this sentiment. As the News Blog reported last week, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, speaking at a meeting of the city's business leaders, noted one good thing about next year was "at least there will be an adult in the White House" -both a whack at Bush and a compliment to all three remaining presidential candidates.
---
UPDATE: Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com likes what Obama had to say.

"I like when politicians show nuance. From a guy who regularly says that President John McCain would be tantamount to a third President George W. Bush, this is one of those civil concessions that make the patriot in me all proud."

8:50 AM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (17) | e-mail post

 

In Pennsylvania, Shift to Democrats a "Tidalwave"

In the suburbs of Philadelphia, the switch from Republican to Democrat is happening almost everywhere. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Democrats now outnumber Republicans in two of the four counties that comprise suburban Philadelphia and Democrats and Independents together are now a larger group in the other two other counties that have long been bastions of Republican support.

And it appears that much of this Democratic excitement is being driven by Sen. Barack Obama.

John J. Kennedy, associate professor of political science at West Chester University, noted that each of the 15 communities with a new Democratic registration edge voted for Democrat John Kerry over President Bush in 2004.

"People change their voting patterns first," he said. "It may take years - decades - before they change their registration, and then usually there is some watershed event to make it happen."

The Obama-Clinton race appears to be just such an event - not only in the region, but statewide. Pennsylvania now has 8.3 million voters, of whom 4.2 million are Democrats and 3.2 million are Republicans. The Democrats have gained 326,756 voters since a year ago, and the Republicans have lost 73,009.

The Inquirer note that there is a "tidal wave of people in the five-county Philadelphia region - former Republicans, former independents, former nonvoters - who registered as Democrats to vote in Tuesday's primary. And the majority of these newly registered voters appear to support Sen. Barack Obama, according to a recent poll."

Most experts believe that the Democratic primary on Tuesday will be won or lost in the Philadelphia area. How much this new "tidal wave" of Democratic voters will affect the outcome of the primary is an unknown, but it could make the race a much closer contest that polls have shown - which would be seen by many as a "win" for Obama.

8:00 AM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

For Clinton, Penn. Now About Lowering Expectations

A few weeks ago, when Sen. Hillary Clinton was a head by 16 -20 percent, Pennsylvania looked like a walk in the park. It seemed likely she would get that sorely needed double-digit victory over Sen. Barack Obama that she needed to catch up in the popular vote (she has almost no chance of catching him when it comes to pledged delegates) and make a strong argument to superdelegates that she was the smart choice for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

That was then ... this is now. Now it all depends on how you define "significant" -- because that needed double-digit victory has now become mid-single digits.

On CBS's "Face the Nation," Gov. Ed Rendell said Clinton would win the state by as many as seven percentage points, even in the face of `"obscene'" campaign spending by Obama in the finally days leading up to primary

"We've been outspent three-and-a-half to one," Rendell, a Clinton supporter said. "A win by middle-digits -- four, five, six, seven -- would be very significant."

But yesterday, speaking to Clinton supporters in York, Rendell's message was a bit different.

"Not to put any pressure on you folks, but this is it, this is it," said Rendell. "We're gonna we win, no doubt about it, but we gotta win big. If we win big, we're going to wind up with more votes than Barack Obama. It's gonna be a very big decision for the superdelegates."

Others believe that Rendell's call for a big victory is right on the money. For instance, the Wall Street Journal said Frioday that "Anything less than a double-digit victory could solidify the perception that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the inevitable Democratic nominee, sparking a flow of superdelegates to his side."

"The bigger the number, the better," says Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf. "She needs to do exceptionally well in Pennsylvania. If not, the pressure for her to leave will be greater."

But the official word from the Clinton campaign is that a win is a win is a win. The Obama camp, meanwhile, says that anything less than double-digits is a victory for him.

Only time will tell.

(TOM NOTE: The is why I love our readers. Noah Kunin pointsout below that it was film director Ron Reiner, not Ed Rendell that made the "this is it" folks remark. The remarks was reported in the media as being from Rendell.

Interestingly, this is a double drop for me. I saw the remark, which was reportedly made by Rendell, in other media but wanted to see if I could find a Pennsylvania paper that carried it. I did find it in the York paper - but I didn't read closely enough. Because sure enough the paper quotes Reiner as making the remark. Good get, Noah.)

4:48 PM ET | 04-20-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Pennsylvania Vote Depends on Several Factors

The closer we get to the actual Pennsylvania primary, the more it seems that no one can really predict how the actual voting will go.

For instance, the Boston Globe reports that "later-deciders" could really help Sen. Hillary Clinton.

"If the pattern of previous primaries and caucuses holds, the biggest procrastinators - those who make up their minds on Tuesday - will probably break for Senator Hillary Clinton. If they side with her again in Pennsylvania, it may help Clinton hold off Senator Barack Obama with a big-enough victory to save her candidacy, again."

But Obama has a couple of important factors that could break his way.

Young voters in Pennsylvania could go big for Obama and neutralize the "late-decider." (Witness the spontaneous Obama "parade" through Philadelphia of about 5000 mostly younger Obama supporters after his speech to 35,000 people Friday night.) But as Reuters asks, will they turn out to vote?

"The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, or CIRCLE, which has tracked youth voting since the U.S. voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972, says this year has seen the highest national registration rate in history among those under 30 ...

"[But] In every presidential election since 1972, turnout by citizens under 30 in Pennsylvania was slightly below the national average for young voters and lagged behind that of older voters. In 2004, 47 percent of young Pennsylvanians, and 68 percent of those over 30, went to the polls, according to CIRCLE."

The most important factor for Obama, however, could be women. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that "Allegiances are shifting, and affiliations based on gender and race are weakening ...," mostly in favor or Obama.

"In the latest Quinnipiac University poll, released Tuesday, Clinton held steady with Pennsylvania women with 54 percent of the vote, compared with 40 percent for Obama. In a poll two months ago, however, Obama had only 34 percent of the women's vote in Pennsylvania."

"It's not that she's losing supporters, but he's picking up strength, especially among white women," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
----
UPDATE: One indication of how these difference groups can affect polling results, two new polls how how wide the spread can be depending upon who the pollsters reach.

Earlier today we reported that a Mason-Dixon poll had Clinton ahead by 5%. A new Zogby Daily Tracking Pennsylvania poll shows Clinton ahead by only three points. It has a +/- of 4.1 percent. But a poll by the GOP polling firm Strategic Vision shows Clinton ahead by nine points.

10:40 AM ET | 04-20-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Polls Show Clinton Lead in Pennsylvania

A new poll by McClatchy Newspapers, MSNBC and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette shows Sen. Hillary Clinton maintaining her middle-single digit lead in Pennsylvania.

And it's the support of white, working-class voters --"bowlers, gun owners and hunters in Pennsylvania, a blue-collar trifecta" --that continues to give her that five-point lead, 48% to 43%. Only beer drinkers don't prefer Clinton - she splits that vote with Obama.

Obama leads among blacks, voters younger than 35, Protestants, and those looking for change or honesty. He leads in the Philadelphia area.

Only seven percent of voters say that Wednesday night's debate influenced their views of the candidate.

The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon, surveyed 625 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It was conducted by telephone April 17-18. It has a +/- of four percent and did not include cell phone users.

Ron Elving, NPR's Washington editor, talking about the Pennsylvania primary on Weekend Edition Sunday, said if Clinton does win, the argument will become was it enough "Is it the momentum builder, is it the factor she needed to turn it around," said Elving.
---
(TOM NOTE: I've noticed that lately that there has been a few quite long posts in our comment section. I just want to remind folks that posts need to be reasonable in length. Really long posts probably won't be published. The primary reason is not content - it's how it appears in the blog's comment section. Really long comments can appear even long when published. So if you have a lot to say, say it in chunks - part one, part two, etc. It will look better, read better and more people will pay attention.)

8:44 AM ET | 04-20-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

William Ayers Writes About The Past, Present on Blog

William Ayers, former radical, now English professor and 24x7 media bête noir, has a blog. (Who doesn't these days.) Most of the blog is about his writing, his talks, his biography and history. He hasn't blogged about how he was thrown into the middle of the Democratic debate by ABC moderator George Stephanopoulos at the suggestion of Fox News talking head Sean Hannity the other day. But he did blog recently about the furor over his tenuous connection to Sen. Barack Obama.

Here some of that recent entry entitled "Episodic Notoriety - Fact and Fiction":

"Day in and day out I go about my business, I hang out with my kids and my grandchildren, take care of the elders, I go to work, I teach and I write, I organize and I participate in the never-ending effort to build a powerful movement for peace and social justice; now and then (and unpredictably) I appear in the newspapers or on TV with a reference to my book Fugitive Days, a memoir of the revolutionary action and militant resistance to the Viet Nam War -- the years of miracle and wonder -- and some fantastic assertions about what I did, what I said, and what I believe. The other night, for example, I heard Sean Hannity tell Senator John McCain that I was an unrepentant terrorist who had written an article on September 11, 2001 extolling bombings against the U.S., and even advocating more terrorist bombs. Senator McCain couldn't believe it, and neither could I.'

Continue reading "William Ayers Writes About The Past, Present on Blog" »

7:30 PM ET | 04-19-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post

 

Indiana Poll: Obama Ahead by 5, But It's McCain's State

A new poll from the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne shows that Sen. Barack Obama has a five-point lead on Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Indiana Democratic primary. But the Indianapolis Star reports that when it comes to the fall election, Indiana remains safely Republican, with GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain holding solid leads over both Democrats.

The polls showed Obama leading Clinton 50 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent undecided. But the polls +/- of 4.5 % means it's still a close race and could break either way. Meanwhile, McCain continues to do well in the state.

No Democratic presidential nominee has carried Indiana since Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1964, and the poll showed that either Obama or Clinton would have an uphill battle against the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain.

McCain led Obama 51 percent to 44 percent and led Clinton 53 percent to 42 percent, with 5 percent undecided in each case.

The poll also shows that if Clinton picked Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana as her running mate, it wouldn't help much.

"Only 4 percent of Hoosiers would switch from McCain to Clinton if Bayh were chosen as her running mate, and some of this gain would be lost by the 2 percent of Clinton supporters who would switch to McCain," the Downs Center said in its analysis of the results.

6:42 AM ET | 04-19-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Sen. Orrin Hatch Pens a Song for John McCain

Barack Obama had the "Obama Girl" to sing his praises.

Now John McCain has his "Orrin Boy." That's Orrin Hatch, the Utah Republican who writes song lyrics between U.S. Senate sessions and even has a Platinum Record to his credit.

Senator Hatch has released "Together Forever," a country-pop ditty that celebrates John McCain.

"There's a time in history for a hero's destiny," the song shouts out, in a reference to candidate McCain's P.O.W. past during the Viet Nam war. There's also some contemporary political advice.

"Hey John," a female lead singer calls, in case Senator McCain isn't listening. "They're gonna hit you hard with everything they got ...They'll be calling you everything you're not."

"But sure as heaven you're bound to win," the lyrics croon reassuringly. "Start celebrating. Now let's begin. Together. Forever."

This is music you can dance AND vote to, if you're inclined toward John McCain.

In a written statement, Senator Hatch said he " ... thought John would get a big kick out of a patriotic song written about his heroism and the sacrifices he's made for our country ... I think most people will like it."

Does the McCain campaign like the song? A campaign spokesman told the Salt Lake Tribune, "We'll see Barack Obama's Bruce Springsteen endorsement and raise them an Orrin Hatch."

A spokesman for the Democratic National Committee riffed on the song's title in the DNC's response, telling the Tribune, "Once the voters get to see the real John McCain, we're sure Senator Hatch will get his wish, and he and Senator McCain can spend 'Forever Together' in the U.S. Senate."

Hatch, by the way, is bipartisan in his song-writing. He once wrote an ode to his Democratic Senate colleague and friend, Edward Kennedy, and Kennedy's wife Vicki, called "Souls Along the Way."

-- Howard Berkes

4:05 PM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

McCain Release Tax Info, Wife Doesn't

Republican presidential hopeful John McCain released his tax returns Friday, showing that he earned about $420,00 last year.

In addition to his Senate salary last year, McCain earned more than $176,000 in royalties from his five books. That's more than double his 2006 book income, but well below the book royalties of his Democratic rival Barack Obama. The 71-year-old McCain also collected about $23,000 in Social Security, and he received a Navy pension of about $58,000, which is tax free.

McCain paid more than $84,000 in federal taxes last year, including more than $5,000 from the alternative minimum tax, which he wants to repeal.

But his wife, a wealthy beer heiress, is keeping her finances private.

John and Cindy McCain have always kept their finances separate. The campaign says Cindy McCain won't be releasing her tax returns, in order to protect her children's privacy. She inherited a stake in a beer distributor her father started, thought to be worth as much as l00-million dollars.

The McCains claimed two of their children as dependents last year. He's proposed a doubling of the children's tax exemption.

-- Scott Horsley

1:59 PM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Obama Gets Backing of Nunn, Boren and Reich

In what looks more and more to be a carefully choreographed announcement of endorsements, Sen. Barack Obama picked up the support of two former Democratic Senators and a former member of President Bill Clinton's cabinet.

"Former Senators Sam Nunn and David L. Boren endorsed Barack Obama for president, citing his judgment and vision to be Commander and Chief and his ability to strengthen our national security," the Obama campaign announced in an e-mailed release.

"Based on my conversations with Senator Obama, reading his book and his speeches and seeing the kind of campaign he has run, I believe that he is our best choice to lead our nation," said Nunn, who is known for his expertise in national security and military matters.

Meanwhile, Robert Reich, longtime friend of Bill Clinton (they were Rhodes Scholars together) and former Labor Secretary in Clinton's administration, announced on his blog today that he is supporting Obama. (First recorded endorsement by blog?)

"Although Hillary Clinton has offered solid and sensible policy proposals, Obama's strike me as even more so. His plans for reforming Social Security and health care have a better chance of succeeding. His approaches to the housing crisis and the failures of our financial markets are sounder than hers. His ideas for improving our public schools and confronting the problems of poverty and inequality are more coherent and compelling. He has put forward the more enlightened foreign policy and the more thoughtful plan for controlling global warming."

1:41 PM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Dean Wants Superdelegates to Decide "Now."

Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean thinks that superdelegates have had enough time to consider the options, and wants they to start making up their minds ... now.

"We've got to know who our nominee is," Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said on CNN. "I need them to say who they're for, starting now."

Dean says about 65 percent of the superdelegates have announced their support for a particular candidate, and he wants the remaining 35 percent to speed it up. But he doesn't seem to have much leverage to get these last 300 or so delegates to make a move.

As USAToday reports, many superdelegates don't seem to be in any hurry at all to decide which candidate to back.

"Until America has (its) say, I'm going to wait to have mine," Debra Kozikowski, vice chairwoman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, said. "I don't want voters ... to feel as though superdelegates are sweeping down and making the decision for them."

1:15 PM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Will Clinton Get "Colbert Bump" Out of Brief Appearance?

As Scott Kraus of the Allentown (PA) Morning Call says, if you blinked, you missed it. Last night Sen. Hillary Clinton made a brief live appearance on the set of the popular political satire show, The Colbert Report.

Clinton walked on to the opening of the show, taped before a live audience at the University of Pennsylvania, pretending to repair a technical problem and fix host Stephen Colbert's makeup before rushing off the set.

''You are so prepared for any situation,'' said a mock-stunned Colbert.

The New York senator replied: ''Call me anytime.''

''Really?'' Colbert asked.

''Sure,'' Clinton replied. Then she added: ''Call me at 3 a.m.,'' before rushing off to attend a block party in Northeast Philadelphia."

And she's wasn't the only one. Colbert also managed to get former presidential contender John Edwards and Clinton's rival Sen. Barack Obama (via satellite) on the same show.

But will any of them, Clinton in particular, get the coveted Colbert bump? (Recently the News Blog carried a story about a UCSD professor who did a little research and swears it exists - after a Democrat goes on the Comedy Central show, their approval ratings soar and they raise a lot more money.)

Maybe.

''It's a way to show you are a regular person, that you are not cold, that you are older but you are a little hip,'' said Chris Harper, associate professor of journalism at Temple University.

But Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania said it probably won't help much because most of the show's college-educated crowd have already made up their minds.

11:47 AM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Michelle Obama Attacks "Elitist" Label

In a stop at an Indiana middle school yesterday, Michelle Obama, wife of Democratic presidential leader Sen. Barack Obama, defended her husband against charges that he is "elitist.'

"There was no silver spoon in his mouth," she said. "His mother was an 18-year-old white woman raising a black kid in the 1960s."

The Indianapolis Star reports that Obama added "her husband learned that 'sometimes life deals you a short hand; sometimes you live on food stamps.' "

Describing herself as the "product of a working-class community," Obama talked about how the rising cost of college education and the low pay of many jobs make it difficult for middle-class Americans to make a living and put their children through college.

"We are making certain careers financially obsolete," Obama said before breaking into a bit of sarcasm. "Barack and I know this all too well with our elite selves."

The audience responded with a loud standing ovation.

Obama said she wants people to know that she is a "proud product" of the Chicago public school system.

"When they look at me and see perhaps the next first lady of the United States," she said, "I want to be a constant reminder of what an investment in public education can look like."

11:09 AM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

ABC Shrugs Off Furor Over Debate Performance

In a surprise to no one, ABC News shrugged off the media attention it received over its handling of the debate between the two Democratic candidates on Wednesday night. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that "the morning after Wednesday night's presidential campaign debate in Philadelphia, the names on the nation's lips were . . . Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos."

"Gibson, the avuncular ABC news anchor, and Stephanopoulos, the network's mop-top political analyst, found themselves at the center of a cloudburst of criticism for their interrogation of Democratic presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton."

But ABC was unapologetic.

"The questions were tough and fair and appropriate and relevant," Stephanopoulos told the Associated Press. "We wanted to focus at first on the issues that were not focused on during the last debates."

The audience of 10.7 million was the largest for a presidential debate so far in this campaign, Jeffrey Schneider, senior vice president for ABC News noted. With an audience that big, "we're not surprised that there is a huge reaction," he said. "It's yet another indication of how passionately engaged the American people are with this race."

He said ABC did not regard the debate as a conflict of interest for Stephanopoulos, who had been a press aide to President Bill Clinton. "He's been here 11 1/2 years, far longer than the time he spent in the White House," Schneider said.

While most journalism experts felt that the conflict of interest question was not a concern, many felt it did take ABC too long to get to the important questions.

"I was disappointed with the first 40 minutes of it," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College. "They should have started asking questions pertaining to policy issues and leadership and not focused so much on personal questions. . . . There was nothing new."

10:51 AM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post

 

AP FactCheck: Obama's Connections to Ayers Tenuous

William Ayers probably never got this much attention even when he was a member of the radical Weather Underground.

Ayers is, of course, today's 24x7 instant media story because of his 'relationship' with Sen. Barack Obama. Based on the exchange about Ayers during Wednesday night's debate in Philadelphia, you might have thought that Obama and Ayers were plotting the overthrow of the U.S. government together 40 years ago - even if Obama was only eight at the time.

But an Associated Press fact check shows that the connections between Obama and Ayers are a bit more tenuous -- if there is a connection at all.

So here are the facts:

Ayers was a member of the group when a bomb it was making in a Manhattan townhouse exploded and killed three people. He fled, spend years as a fugitive, met and fell in love with fellow group member Bernadine Dohrn. In the mid-'70s, the federal charges against Ayers and Dohrn were dismissed because of government misconduct. But the two kept underground for three more years. They both surrendered to police in 1980 and were never prosecuted (a point not mentioned during last night's debate).

In 1982 Dohrn spent several months in jail for refusing to give police a sample of her writing while police were investigating a case where three Weathermen and members of the Black Liberation Army killed an armored car driver and two policemen during a botched robbery. Dohrn was not involved in the incident in any way, but refused to give the police the sample "on principle."

When Obama was organizing his first race for the state legislature [in 1995], the incumbent lawmaker he hoped to replace introduced him to her supporters and urged them to back Obama. One introductory event took place at the home of Ayers and Dohrn, according to published reports. Ayers contributed $200 to Obama's legislative campaign in 2001, but there is no other sign that he has actively aided Obama's political career.

Ayers and Obama both served on the board of the Woods Fund, a Chicago-based charity that focuses on developing community groups to assist the poor. Local business executives ... and journalists .. are also members, as well as local academics.

Here's a good 2001 profile of Ayers by the Chicago Tribune.

----
UPDATE: The Swamp reports that Mayor Richard Daley comes to Obama's defense.

The mayor released the following statement:

"There are a lot of reasons that Americans are angry about Washington politics. And one more example is the way Senator Obama's opponents are playing guilt-by-association, tarring him because he happens to know Bill Ayers.

"I also know Bill Ayers. He worked with me in shaping our now nationally-renowned school reform program. He is a nationally-recognized distinguished professor of education at the University of Illinois/Chicago and a valued member of the Chicago community.

"I don't condone what he did 40 years ago but I remember that period well. It was a difficult time, but those days are long over. I believe we have too many challenges in Chicago and our country to keep re-fighting 40 year old battles."

But the Clinton campaign won't give up. In conference calls today, Clinton spokesman said Ayers "political" relationship with Obama was more important than President Clinton's decision to pardon two of former Weather Underground members, Susan Rosenberg and Linda Evans on terrorist related weapons charges.

Communications director Howard Wolfson also said that "Bill Ayers is unrepentant of what he did???and that is a difference, of course, between Linda Evans and Susan Rosenberg." But when Evans was released after Bill Clinton pardoned her, she told the Austin American-Statesman, "I'm not repentant. That's for sure. I wouldn't go about it the same (violent) way." But "we still need solutions, and we still need justice just as badly as we ever did."

"Asked if Hillary Clinton had expressed any disagreement with her husband's actions in commuting the sentences of Rosenberg and Evans, Wolfson said only that he would ask the candidate."

8:09 PM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Supporter Switches to Obama

In the past 48 hours, four more superdelegates have declared for Sen. Barack Obama.

The latest endorsement comes from newly elected superdelegate and D.C. city council member Harry Thomas Jr., until now a Clinton supporter. He announced this morning that he is switching his support to Sen. Barack Obama. Thomas found himself on the tail end of 100 phone calls from Obama supporters who were afraid he would use his vote to support Clinton despite the city's overwhelming support for the Illinois senator.

"After meeting with the candidates and listening to my constituents, I have to honor the 83 percent who support Barack Obama," he said in an interview with the Washington Post, referring to the results of the Democratic primary.

It's rather amazing, really, how the Obama campaign is able to turn lemons into lemonade. These superdelegate announcements seem to come right at the moments that Obama needs them the most, and help maintain in the media that sense of momentum he wants to create.

2:19 PM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (26) | e-mail post

 

McCain's Health Care Plan Depends on Cost Cutting

Democrats Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton continue to debate their plans to cover the 47 million Americans who currently have no health insurance. But Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain wants to take the debate in a different direction.

"The problem is not that most Americans lack adequate health insurance -- the vast majority of Americans have private insurance, and our government spends billions each year to provide even more," McCain has said. "The biggest problem with the American health care system is that it costs too much."

McCain wants to get people to buy their own insurance, rather than get it through their jobs. NPR's Julie Rovner reports that McCain would accomplish this in a variety of ways: giving people tax credits, encouraging more people to set up tax-advantaged health savings accounts, and letting them buy insurance policies across state lines.

And no mandates for McCain. If you don't want health insurance, you don't have to get it.

What do you think of this plan? Would tax breaks encourage you to buy your own insurance? Is a mandate to have health care a good or bad idea?

1:57 PM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Mitt Romney's Top Ten Reasons to Drop Out of GOP Race

Last night, one of the featured speakers at the Radio-Television Correspondents Association dinner (What! They weren't all covering the debate?) in Washington was former Massachusetts Governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

He gave his top ten reasons about why he decided to get out of the race (quite funny, although he needs to learn to wait for laugh lines better -- see video below).:

10. There weren't as many Osmonds as I thought.
9. I got tired of corkscrew landings under sniper fire.
8. As a lifelong hunter, I didn't want to miss the start of the varmint season.
7. There wasn't room for two Christian leaders.
6. I was upset that no one had bothered to search my passport files.
5. I needed an excuse to get fat, grow a beard and win the Nobel prize.
4. I wanted to finally take off that dark suit and tie, and kick back in a light-colored suit and tie.
3. Once my wife Ann realized I couldn't win, my fundraising dried up.
2.I took a bad fall at a campaign rally and broke my hair.
1. There was a miscalculation in our theory: "As Utah goes, so goes the nation."

Here's the video of Romney at the dinner:

12:23 PM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Dispute Erupts Over Clinton's '95 Remarks

The other day the News Blog reported on a story in the Huffington Post about a comment made by Hillary Clinton during a 1995 retreat to discuss the gains made by the Republicans in the off-year elections in 1994. "Screw 'em," Clinton was quoted as saying about poor white southern males.

Author Benjamin Barber witnessed and wrote about in his book, "The Truth of Power: Intellectual Affairs in the Clinton White House." His account was confirmed by Harry Boyte, the director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Democracy and Citizenship.

But as First Read reports, last night in the debate spin room, and this morning on MSNBC's Morning Joe with Joe Scarborough, Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson said it never happened.

"It ain't so. It ain't so," he said. "This is not something that occurred." Wolfson dismissed it as a sign of the 'situation' that the Obama campaign is in. "It did not happen," he said again.

But First Read also talked to Barber, who stuck by his story. He said that it was important to remember that it wasn't just Hillary who was angry at the time: "everyone in that room back in '95 was angry about the Republicans taking over Congress. The only person who wasn't angry was Bill, who (as the HuffPo piece also explains) talked about the importance of reaching out to white southerners."

Meanwhile, a third person has come forward to confirm the remarks. Alan Wolfe, a professor of political science, director of the Boisi Center for Religion and American Public Life at Boston College and a contributor to The New Republic, also remembers the remark.

"So, you've got two guys we've barely heard of remembering a verbatim quote from 13 years ago?... Sounds totally and completely reliable," responded Jay Carson from the Clinton campaign. Make that three. I was there. I hope people have heard of me. And Barber and Boyte have it right.

Is this a possible sniper-fire situation in early development?

11:39 AM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (21) | e-mail post

 

ABC News Panned for Debate Performance

Barack Obama's performance during Wednesday night's debate left a lot to be desired, but he's not the only one whose performance has been panned. ABC News' co-hosts of the debate, Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopolous, have come in for some pretty tough reviews as well.

For starters, it was a bad sign when people in the audience booed the two men at the end of last night's debate.

Tom Shales, the TV critic for the Washington Post called their performance "shoddy and despicable." In a piece entitled, "In PA debate, ABC is the clear loser," Shales wrote:

"For the first 52 minutes of the two-hour, commercial-crammed show, Gibson and Stephanopoulos dwelled entirely on specious and gossipy trivia that already has been hashed and rehashed, in the hope of getting the candidates to claw at one another over disputes that are no longer news. Some were barely news to begin with ...At the end, Gibson pompously thanked the candidates -- or was he really patting himself on the back? -- for "what I think has been a fascinating debate." He's entitled to his opinion, but the most fascinating aspect was waiting to see how low he and Stephanopoulos would go, and then being appalled at the answer."

Editor and Publisher's Greg Mitchell was equally hard hitting.

"In perhaps the most embarrassing performance by the media in a major presidential debate in years, ABC News hosts Charles Gibson and George Stephanopolous focused mainly on trivial issues as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama faced off in Philadelphia."

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo said after ABC's performance Wednesday night, the debate should be given back to the League of Women Voters.

Jason Linkins, who covers media and politics for the Huffington Post was equally hard hitting. "Worst. Debate. Ever."

"Like I said, there have been several thousand of these debates. Most, I've watched. Many, I've covered or liveblogged. A few, I have sat very still, and hoped for the sweet release that only the icy hand of death can provide. Tonight was the first time I would have dearly loved to see Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama team up and turn the tables on their interrogators."

The Los Angeles Times "Top of the Ticket" blog was gentler, noting that the two ABC hosts were in a "no-win situation."

"After a period when it seemed there was a debate every other day, almost two months had passed since the last one.Gibson and Stephanopoulos could have ignored the various furors that have flared -- and been thoroughly covered -- over that time. But they would have been widely scorned had they done so. So they raised the expected topics (and, as a result, have been widely scorned anyway): Rev. Jeremiah Wright's rants; the non-existent sniping in Bosnia; 'bittergate.' "

Meanwhile, the feedback page on ABC's website received almost 12,000 comments following the debate, the vast majority of them negative.
---

UPDATE: This is making the rounds on the Internet right now.

10:05 AM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

Obama Picks Up Endorsements of Paper, Superdelegate

Sen. Barack Obama picked up two more endorsements Thursday morning. Again, timing couldn't have been better for the Obama campaign, coming right after a shaky debate performance Wednesday night.

The Philadelphia Daily News endorsed Obama, saying that he should be judged by what he was done in his campaign and before.

"An Obama administration would be freer of the the corrupting influence of big-money donors and corporate interests. Obama has raised $240 million overall, with half coming in contributions of less than $200. People who contribute to political campaigns can feel they "own" a candidate and so Obama would owe allegiance to the wide swath of America that has financed his campaign.

"Based on his experience in running a quarter-billion-dollar enterprise with thousands upon thousands of volunteers, we could expect an Obama administration to be well-managed and cost-effective, with the president choosing forward-thinking advisers committed to his program, demanding that they work as a team and pay attention to details."

Meanwhile, Oklahoma superdelegate Reggie Whitten also announced his support for Obama, citing the candidate's ability to unite people for change and his track record "of standing up for working and middle-class families.
---
UPDATE: Clinton picked up a newspaper endorsement herself today. The Daily Pennsylvanian, the independent student paper at the University of Pennsylvania, says that "is ready to lead this nation now. A successful champion for change, her experience in the Senate and as first lady gives her a better understanding of how Washington works. She has the ability to turn policy into reality. And her mastery of causes central to the Democratic Party's platform makes her better suited to challenge presumptive Republican nominee John McCain."

8:20 AM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

First Responses to Democratic Debate

The first wave of responses are in to tonight's Democratic debate. Not much good news for Sen. Barack Obama.

Marc Ambinder of theAtlantic.com writes that there is no way tonight's debate can be considered a good thing for Barack Obama.

"Keeping the score card, there's no way this debate could have fared worse for Barack Obama. Nearly 45 minutes of relentless political scrutiny from the ABC anchors and from Hillary Clinton, followed by an issues-and-answers session in which his anger carried over and sort of neutered him. But Hillary Clinton has a Reverse-Teflon problem: her negatives are up, and when she's perceived as the attacker, the attacks never seem to settle on Obama and always seem to boomerang back on her. So it would be unwise to declare that Hillary "won" the debate in the dynamic sense just yet. (How much money will Obama raise off this debate? $3m million? $4 million?) ... Obama's supporters like to see him fight back against the Man... witness his quick response to "bittergate".....; tonight, it seemed as if he was surprised by the pace of the questions and all the air was gone from his answers."

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo felt the ABC team of Charlie Gibson and George Stehapanopolis did a really bad job tonight.

Continue reading "First Responses to Democratic Debate" »

10:46 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (33) | e-mail post

 

Live Blogging the Democratic Debate

Obama making opening statement, talking about people being frustrated at economic situation. "They are frustrated with Washington and not being listened to...I'm running for president for that reason."

Clinton: People feel their government is not solving problems. Provide health care, education true passport to opportunity...I'm running because I feel we can fulfill the promise of tomorrow."

Wow, a commercial debate after short opening speeches.

Gibson starts with a zinger ... why won't you choose each other as vice presidential nominee?

Obama starts with an answer - it's too early to say. We're still in middle of campaign. But both candidates will be working together after convention

Clinton, "I'll do everything I can to make sure one of us is presidential nominee. I'll go anywhere to make the case and I know Barack will too...I've traveled the country and seen the failed Bush polices. So regardless of differences between us, th things we have in common are greater."

Gibson now asks Obama about "bitter" remark

Obama says I did not express myself well. "But what I was trying to say was that when people feel they can't count on Washington, they start to care more about issues like guns and hot-button issues. When those issues are exploited, it makes us harder to solve other issues.'

Clinton: "I'm the granddaughter of a mill worker from Scranton ... I don't believe that my grandfather or my father cling to religion when Washington is not listening to them. That is a fundamental misunderstanding." Same with guns. "That is not how people live their lives. Sure, people are frustrated, but it doesn't work that way.

George Stephanopoulos: Do you think Obama can beat John McCain or not.

She avoids the question. "We have to beat McCain ... after having gone through 16 years of being attacked by Republicans we have to go after every vote everywhere.

"But can he beat McCain?"

"Yes, yes, yes, but I can do a better job."

"Sen. Obama do you think that see can beat McCain?"

"Yes, I've said so before ... but I want to talk about things that she said, and how she has referred to me as an elitist .. As a man of faith I've done a lot to reach out to these groups, ...

Obama brings up the "baking cookie remark" from 1992 as an example of a stupid statement. "I remember watching that on TV, and said to myself, that's not who she is..."

Clinton: "I was responding to your remarks ... obviously what we have to do as Democrats is make sure we have enough votes to win in November ... as George said, GOP will jump on them"

Gibson asks why he rescinded invitation to Wright to announce presidency if he had never seen or heard bad things?

Obama says it was based on statements that Wright had just made in Rolling Stone magazine ... Obama said he made his speech on race because we need to move beyond race.'

Gibson: Do you honestly believe that 8,000 people should have walked out of the church?

Clinton: I made a personal remark, I can only speak for myself ... you get to choose your pastor, not your family.

Obama points out that Clinton's own pastor pointed out that Obama maintained a vibrant ministry for years ...unless we can bridge some of these divides, we won't get anywhere." Talks about his work as community divide.

George S.: Do you think that Wright loves America as much as you do? If you get the nomination, what about seeing all those videos again and again?

Obama says that if it wasn't this, it would be something else ... the notion that Americans would be distracted by something that somebody other than me says, doesn't give American people enough credit

GeorgeS: Does he love America as much as you do?

Obama points out that Wright was a Marine, but he is angry about things that he saw later.

George S. asks about poll that shows people don't trust her. Plays video of voter who said he lost his vote.

Clinton blames her Bosnia mistake on lack of sleep [important to note that comments were also made in the morning].. things happen when you talk as much as we do ... I apologize, I said I was sorry ...

Obama says that what is important that we don't get so caught up in attacking each other that we forget about economy, Iraq war, etc. ... for us to be obsesses with these mistake and not focus on what we need to do.

Gibson: Voter asks Obama why you don't wear American flag? ... how do you convince Democrats that this would not be a vulnerability.

Obama, "I revere the flag and the country" ... says his story would not be possible in any other country .."I've tried to show my patriotism in the way I treat veterans in Congress, the way I feel about the Iraq war ... I will fight for those issues ... the kind of manufactured issue that is a problem in this campaign.'

George S: Asks about relationship to former Weatherman William Ayers.

Obama: This kind of game, that anyone I know, that their ideas could be attributed to me, the American people are smarter than that.

Clinton still tries to pin him more to William Ayers, using the guilt by association argument to say that the Republicans will use it against him.

Obama points out that President Clinton pardoned two members of the Weatherman Underground. Obama says he has taken some tough punches from Clinton. 'I'm looking forward to debating McCain ... When people are voting, they are going to be thinking about Bush policies, not who I might know vaguely"

Commercial break

(As Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com notes, 35 minutes of shots to Obama's midsection ... ABC is treating him as the front runner. Also please excuse any typos, we'll go back and correct between breaks)

Gibson: If military commanders say to you that bringing those troops home would be bad for situation, would you still do it?

Clinton says yes ... best interests of US and Iraq to do so. She says she will immediately ask JCofS to draw up plans to bring home troops, carefully, and tell Iraq that their blank check is gone.

Gibson continues attack, "Are you saying you know better than commanders?'

Clinton says no, but anything can happen. "We have to end problems in Iraq so we can solve other problems in the world ... Bottom line is that we don't know what will happen if we withdraw, but we do know that if we stay it won't be good for Iraq or the US."

Gibson asks same of Obama

Obama says yes, because the president sets the mission, and the commanders follow the mission...Obama says he will always listen to his commanders about tactics, but ultimately the buck stops at the president's desk ... points out that the military is so stretched that if another crisis occurs, we can't respond

George S: Should the US treat an attack on Israel as an attack on the U.S.?

Obama responds that the first thing to do is to make sure that Iran does not get nuclear weapons ... he would talk to Iran, but he would make it clear that an attack on Israel would be strongly dealt with by the U.S.

Clinton agrees, and says that she would expand that deterrent to include other countries' attacks on Israel or other countries friendly to the U.S. Clinton says that she would engage Iran, had to be done, but not through Ahmedinejad.

George S: Will you make a no new taxes for people making less than 200,000 a year and still role back tax breaks if economy is bad?

Clinton says she will role back tax cuts for wealthy regardless of economy. When asked, Obama agrees and said he would cut taxes for people with incomes less than 200,000. Part of his tax plan.

Gibson says Obama would favor a capital gains tax increase, but no more than Clinton did. But Gibson says when capital gains taxes up, revenues down and vice versa

Obama said he brings it up for issues of fairness. People who amass huge capital gains are paying less than their taxes ... Obama says he believe in principle that you pay as you go. Can't have tax cuts without picking it up in other areas.

Clinton says we can do better by investing rather than taxing people ... but she does say that she would raise the capital gains tax, but not above the 20 percent of her husband's administration.

Obama says that he wants to raise the cap on the pay roll tax, especially for those making way more than 97,000 a year. He says only six percent of public fits. Gibson keeps trying to pin it as a tax increase, but Obama says he would be willing to look at limiting impact of those between 100,000 and 250,000 but you still have to do something to solve the social security problem

Clinton says that we can be smarter about doing it, she would call a commission to study it. But Obama points out that the '83 commission mentioned by Clinton not only raised the retirement age but also the capital gains tax. So he says Clinton attacks me for my solution, when she really hasn't got any better answers.

Commercial break

Gibson asks about both candidates past strong statements about need for gun control?

Clinton says she'll bring back cop program, assault weapons ban because cops are outgunned, that police departments will get access to information they need to track illegal guns ...Clinton says she respects 2nd amendment but they also want to be sure we keep these guns out of the wrong hands.

Gibson asks Obama about DC's right to bear arms

Obama says that you do have an individually right to bear arms, but local government have a right to decide how you use those weapons, same as property ... Obama says we have to get beyond politics and see what's working. It is perfectly appropriate to find a way to solve the problem.

George S: Asks if she supports DC gun ban?

Clinton dances around question, Gibson asks do you favor licensing of hand guns?

Clinton says she was in favor of New York rules, but they might not work in another part of the country.

George S: Ask about changes to affirmative action to not favor well-off African-Americans

Obama says it depends on the individual situation. He says he still believes in affirmative action, but it can't be a quota system. It has to be looked at the situation of each individual.

Clinton says our job should be to help each individual live up to their individual potential, let's "affirmatively" invest in our young people.

Quick round ...

What about gas prices?

Clinton says we'll investigate prices to make sure we're not being snookered. Not put more gas into strategic reserves .., maybe a windfall gas tax .. maybe a tax holiday

Obama says we have to investigate price gouging .. windfall tax, raise fuel efficiency on cars ... points out that lots of people overseas want cars too, to we have to find ways to increase gas efficiency.

How would you use President Bush if you were president?

Clinton "I'll have to think about that ..." But she says it does matter having all former work together...

Obama says he's more likely to talk to president's father than current president ... better foreign policy.

(Commercial break)

Time for final question

It's all about the superdelegates? How do you make the case for them that you are more electable?

Clinton goes first ... we need a fighter back in the White House ...she has plans to give money back to middle class ... "I can't do this alone" ,,, I think it is absolutely what we must do to give our children the future they need" .., she trots out all the former brass that supports her ... 'I'll need your help, especially in Penn. in order to get to those question."

Obama ... we're at a defining moment in our history ... things aren't good ... people have lost faith in government, people don't want a politics about spin and PR but a real conversation with the American people ... in the past 15 months, my bet has paid off, people do want change ... my point to superdelegates is that we have to form a new political coalition.

And it's over ...

8:03 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Lieberman Ready to Speak at GOP Convention

Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman (I), the Democratic Party's 2000 vice presidential nominee, said Tuesday that he is leaving open the possibility that he would speak on behalf of his friend Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, at the GOP convention in Minneapolis. The Hill reports that Republicans close to the McCain campaign "say Lieberman's appearance at the convention, possibly before a national primetime audience, could help make the case that the presumptive GOP nominee has a record of crossing the aisle. That could appeal to much-needed independent voters."

Democrats have given Lieberman a long leash this year because they need his vote to keep their 51-49 majority in the Senate. But if they pick up several Senate seats in 2008, as is expected, their patience might grow short. Lieberman is close to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, so it would probably take a lot for Reid to back an effort to toss his friend out of his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

But if he did appear at the GOP convention, and gave a former Georgia Sen. Zell Miller-like speech (Miller was a Democrat who attacked his party's nominee, John Kerry) then that could be the deciding factor. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) said he doubts Lieberman would give a Miller-like speech.

"I don't think he's going to act like that if he does that," Brown said. "But of course, I would be disappointed if he does that."

7:42 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

"Bitter" Remark Does Not Seem to be Swaying Voters

While it's too early to look at the overall impact of Sen. Barack Obama's now infamous "bitter" remarks (how will it play in the fall election?) it does not seem to be doing him much damage right now.

Meanwhile, the website that started the whole imbroglio, Huffington Post, unearthed a comment made by Hillary Clinton about working-class Americans that may not help her campaign.

Gallup reports that its daily tracking "indicates that Obama's support has yet to suffer following his widely reported remarks about small-town voters."

"Clinton and other Obama critics have characterized his remarks as being insensitive to less-well-educated, lower-income, and religious voters. If his comments are to affect any voters, presumably it would be voters in these subgroups. But an in-depth analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data collected both before and after the controversy shows little or no change in support for Obama as the Democratic nominee among these types of Democratic voters."

The Swamp reports Clinton that "may not be getting the hoped for impact from her latest TV ad in Pennsylvania." The ad features Pennsylvanians talking about being offended by Obama's remarks.

Continue reading ""Bitter" Remark Does Not Seem to be Swaying Voters" »

5:15 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Reuters/Zogby: McCain Is Best Steward for Economy

In what could be a very important indicator for Sen. John McCain, a new poll from Zogby/Reuters shows that Americans favor him as the best steward for the economy by three points over Sen. Barack Obama and by five-point over Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The poll was taken a few days before McCain's major economic speech on Tuesday, which was fairly well received by media and financial experts, although it's emphasis on a gas-tax holidy bothered some Republicans and Democrats who wondered where the money would come from to replace it in the federal treasury.

In a national race, Obama and McCain are even at 45%, with McCain slightly ahead of Clinton 46% to 41%. Interestingly, the poll also included the presence of Ralph Nader and libertarian Bob Barr (if he does win that party's presidential nomination). In both contests, Nader drew 3% and Barr 2%. McCain fared slightly worse against Obama with Barr -- Barr's impact with conservative voters? -- and Nader in the race, but their presence did not change his margin over Clinton.

"Obama still does better than Clinton against McCain, but it's a very close race either way," pollster John Zogby said. "Obama and Clinton hurt each other the longer their race drags on, and McCain is getting a free pass."
---
UPDATE: McCain might get high marks on the economy, but it's getting failing grades on his culinary ideas.

The Washington Post reports that several recipes attributed to Cindy McCain were actually copied word from word from The Food Network's site.

"Apparently a Web intern added Rachael Ray to our policy team without her knowing it," McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds deadpanned yesterday. "He was swiftly dealt with, and the page is down for revision."

4:19 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Vows to Protect Military Jobs in Indiana

Sen. Hillary Clinton launched a new ad today in Indiana that focuses on the loss of American defense industry jobs to overseas firms, in this case to China.

The ad features former employees of Magnaquench who lost their jobs along with more than 200 others in the state in 2003 when the company closed its Indiana plant and shipped production of high-performance magnets used for the U.S. military's "smart bombs" to China.

Reuters reported Monday that Clinton "proposed new requirements to toughen reviews of foreign investment in national security industries and technologies. She also promised to strengthen the 'specialty metals clause' that requires certain vital metals used in defense manufacturing be produced in the United States. Clinton said she would spend $75 million to create a new task force on industrial espionage to investigate and prosecute cases of espionage and information theft."

Here's the ad:

3:12 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Clinton and Obama Exchange Musical Endorsements

Has it come to this? Superdelegates are so reluctant to say who they plan to back that the campaigns are now asking their favorite musicians to declare their support.

First it was Sen. Barack Obama's campaign announcing that the Boss, Bruce Springsteen was going to throw his support to the Illinois Senator.

"He has the depth, the reflectiveness, and the resilience to be our next President," Springsteen said in an e-mailed statement. "He speaks to the America I've envisioned in my music for the past 35 years, a generous nation with a citizenry willing to tackle nuanced and complex problems, a country that's interested in its collective destiny and in the potential of its gathered spirit. A place where "...nobody crowds you, and nobody goes it alone."

"Over here on E Street, we're proud to support Obama for president."

Not to be outdone, the Clinton campaign a few hours later announced that legendary Latin musician Willie Colón, was backing the New York Senator.

"Hillary has been on the side of our families for over 35 years -- she has been with us from the very beginning. I want a President who I can count on, someone who in tough times will be there for me -- that's why I'm supporting Hillary Clinton," said Colón.

Well, we don't know who'll win the Democratic nomination, or if they'll win the presidency, but if they do, they'll have great music at the inauguration.

Here's a little Springsteen:

And a little Willie Colón:

1:24 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Bryant Gumbel Talks Round Ball with Obama

OK, we know that Obama says he's got game on the basketball court. Bryant Gumbel tried to find out on Tuesday night on HBO's Real Sports.

It's a pretty interesting interview. Obama has loved basketball since his father gave him when he was eight on on one of the few trips his dad made to visit him in Hawaii. It became a passion and a refuge for Obama, and as he notes, one of the few places were it was OK to be black in an almost all white environment. His high school went on to win the Hawaii state championship in his varsity year -- when he was Barry Obama. (His old coach, interviewed for the piece, still calls him Barry.)

Then he went to college and forgot about the sport until he went to Harvard law school where he became addicted to pick-up basketball. When he met his wife, Michelle, asked her brother, former Princeton star and now coach at Oregon State Craig Robinson, to take him out on the court as a way to see if he "passed the test." He did.

The show also features some footage of Obama in a pickup game. He's pretty good actually.

But he's not the player he once was. As Robinson said in the interview, Obama "started out as a black player who played black and is now more of a black player who plays white, just so he doesn't hurt." Robinson added that after age 35, "We all play white." (Translation - slower and closer to the ground.)

Here's the interview:

12:53 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Obama Admits "Bitter" Remark a "Distraction" for Dems

In an interview with the editorial board of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Sen. Barack Obama admitted that his comments about residents of small towns in Pennsylvania being bitter about their economic situation and as a result clinging to guns, religion and anti-immigration sentiment "represented a distraction not just from his campaign message but also from Democratic efforts to overcome stereotypes that Republicans have exploited for decades."

"What I do regret is that in one quick statement that wasn't phrased properly I detracted from what I think has to be a genuine effort on the part of Democrats to speak to constituencies we haven't always reached out to," Mr. Obama said during a wide-ranging interview with the paper.

"The basic proposition, what I was trying to say is something I deeply believe, which is that people feel abandoned economically, they don't feel that Washington pays any attention to them. They have heard a lot of empty promises over the last two to three decades ... they're very cynical about the possibility of change.

"They then rely on those things that they can count on. They rely on faith, just like I rely on faith when times are rocky for me. They rely on traditions, like hunting that's been passed on through generation to generation to generation. When people are angry and frustrated they are also subject to being divided, and politicians will exploit those instincts about so-called wedge issues. Karl Rove explicitly targets those issues and made it an entire campaign strategy over two elections."

Meanwhile, the paper itself announced its endorsement of Obama: "Pennsylvania -- this encrusted, change-averse commonwealth where a state liquor monopoly holds on against all reason and where municipal fiefdoms shrink from sensible consolidation -- needs to take a strong look at the new face and the new hope in this race. Because political business-as-usual is more likely to bring the usual disappointment for the Democrats this fall, the Post-Gazette endorses the nomination of Barack Obama, who has brought an excitement and an electricity to American politics not seen since the days of John F. Kennedy."

10:08 AM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

Two New Polls Have Tough News for Clinton

Two new polls -- Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Washington Post/ABC News -- have some tough news for Sen. Hillary Clinton and lots of good news for Sen. Barack Obama.

The Times/Bloomberg poll shows that Clinton is "losing traction" to Obama in key states like Pennsylvania and Indiana. The survey found that she leads Obama by five-points in the Keystone State, 46% to 41% and is behind him by five-points in Indiana, 40% to 35%. In North Carolina, Obama has a 13-point lead. The survey was conducted under the supervision of the Times poll director. Over 600 people were surveyed in each state, and each survey had a margin of error of +/- four percent.

One interesting finding in the poll - the Rev. Jeremiah Wright flap appears to be helping, not hurting Obama in Pennsylvania: "24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views." But many in each state think the issue could "hamper him" in a general election.

One bit of good news for Clinton is that there are huge numbers of undecided in each state, 12% in Pennsylvania, 19% in Indiana and 17% in North Carolina.

Meanwhile, a Post/ABC poll shows finds that by a 2-1 majority, Democrats believe that Obama is more electable in the fall election. That's a significant blow to the Clinton campaign, which has made Obama's electability a major issue.

"The poll finds other pronounced problems for Clinton. Among all Americans, 58 percent now say she's not honest and not trustworthy, 16 points higher than in a precampaign poll two years ago. Obama beats her head-to-head on this attribute by a 23-point margin. The number of Americans who see Clinton unfavorably overall has risen to a record high in ABC/Post polling, 54 percent -- up 14 points since January. Obama's unfavorable score has reached a new high as well, up 9 points, but to a lower 39 percent."

But the poll also shows that Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are growing wearing of the campaign. Many believe it has become too negative and that the candidates spend too much time arguing about "things that really aren't important." And here is another bit of bad news for Clinton - most people blame Clinton for the problem, by a margin of 52% to 14 %, while 25% blame both equally.

8:45 AM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

No Parties for Michigan, Florida in Denver

Now we known the Democratic National Committee is serious and that Michigan and Florida may be in REAL trouble.

The 2008 Democratic Convention Watch blog reported yesterday that the host committee in the Mile High City, where the convention is being held this August, announced the list of "Welcome Event Venues" (as in cheap buffets and unlimited drinks) for the various state delegations. And lo and behold, there are no welcome events for Michigan and Florida.

And while it may be like hotel rooms in Denver -- "we'll find space once we work it out" -- it's going to be tough to find space for these two delegations. There are limited venues for the parties, so states have had to double and triple up. (In one case, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia are sharing a spot.) As NPR's Robert Smith pointed out in an e-mail, "even if the two outlaw delegations are eventually seated, they may only be able to book the birthday room at the Boulder McDonalds."

8:00 AM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Pro-Democrat 527 Airs First Anti-McCain Ad

In a very limited ad buy (what you might call a "soft launch") the Democrats' major 527 (Progressive Media USA) aired its first anti-John McCain ad on CNN and MSNBC in the Washington D.C market (which includes northern Virginia and Maryland.)

As you remember, 527s are "independent" tax-exempt groups (named after a section of the U.S tax code) that raise and spend money to support various issues - they just aren't allowed to directly advocate the election or defeat of a candidate, although they can often inflict great damage. Just ask Sen. John Kerry.

This first attack ad features lots of footage of John McCain and (surprise, surprise) President George W. Bush.

As Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com writes, "Progressive Media USA promises to raise tens of millions of dollars. This first effort of theirs is probably aimed at spurring donations and demonstrating the type of ads the group wants to run."

6:41 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

McCain Blasts Rivals, and President, Over Economy

In an interview with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain took time to blast Sen. Barack Obama for his comments over attitudes in small town Pennsylvania about guns and religion, and to knock both him and Sen. Hillary Clinton for their statements about free trade, "accusing them of promoting 'isolationism and protectionism."

While admitting that trade agreements have "left people behind," McCain said that overall free trade has been good for America, and that he wants to help misplaced workers in states like Wisconsin with more effective training and education programs.

"Senator Obama and Senator Clinton want to, quote, unilaterally renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement," McCain said. "That would be breaking a solemn treaty, including the one (NAFTA) that was ratified under President Clinton. And what's to say that doesn't send a message to every nation in the world that we have an agreement with, that we're going to, quote, unilaterally renegotiate it. It's crazy!"

But it wasn't just the Democrats who came under McCain's fire. Asked how his economic policies would differ from President Bush's, McCain was blunt.

"Spending, spending, spending. This administration let spending get completely out of control. We mortgaged our children's futures and it led to corruption, and we presided over the largest increase in the size of government since the Great Society."

McCain gave a major economic speech at Carnegie Mellon University earlier in the day were he called on Republicans to return to their tradition of small government and limited federal spending.

McCain says he feels that Wisconsin is a "winnable" state for him. Although it hasn't voted for a Republican since Ronald Reagan, it was the closest contest in the 2004 election and is expected to be heavily targeted by the GOP this fall.

4:08 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

Thousands of New Voters Register in North Carolina

It's amazing what an election year with no obvious heir at president can do for voter registration in a state. In the case of North Carolina, it's not just the race for president that is drawing people - the governor's chair is up for grabs as well.

And that means that North Carolina is following the trend of many other states, seeing a significant increase in the number of people registering to vote. The Raleigh News and Observer reports that 144, 744 new voters registered by last Friday's deadline for "traditional" registeration. (Voters in the state can still register and vote at "one-stop" sites until May 3rd.)

Slightly more than half of the new voters are Democrats. In all, new registered voters were: 76,131 Democrats, or 53 percent; 53,732 unaffiliated, or 37 percent; and 14,911 Republicans, or 10 percent. That left the state with 5.75 million voters.

The influx of new voters across the country makes this year's Democratic primary, and eventual presidential race harder to predict that ever. Will these new Democratic voters return in the fall if their candidate does not win? If they do, how could they change the dynamic in states like North Carolina or Virginia, that have been trending Democratic in the past few years?

3:09 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Democrats Use FEC Lawsuit to Pressure McCain

While the candidates were trading rhetorical volleys over Sen. Barack Obama's "bitter" remarks yesterday, yet another legal front was opened in the fight over the money that pays for their campaigns.

The Democratic National Committee sued the Federal Election Commission. The lawsuit accuses the commission, saying it's failed in its obligation to investigate Republican John McCain's campaign finances. It's another consequence of the FEC's being non-functional in the midst of the biggest fundraising season in history, unable to act because it lacks the necessary number of commissioners.

The Democrats' lawsuit has a couple of angles to it. One is legal and technical. (More on that below.) The other is political. The Democrats want to generate stories like this one. They want to remind voters of questions about McCain's campaign finance troubles, while Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama go on wrangling over the Democratic nomination.

"I think this lawsuit is in large part designed to keep this issue before the public," says Tony Corrado, a political scientist at Colby College, and a specialist in campaign finance law. "The Democrats are trying to keep the pressure on John McCain because they want to keep making the case that he has somehow violated the law."

So here's the legal/technical part of the case.

Democrats say McCain has violated campaign finance law, and he's getting away with it, because the enforcement agency, the Federal Election Commission, hasn't been able to function. The commission needs 4 commissioners to decide anything and it only has 2, thanks to a standoff between Senate Democrats and the White House over confirmation of three nominees.

McCain's lawyers say his alleged violation is no violation at all. Here's what happened:

Continue reading "Democrats Use FEC Lawsuit to Pressure McCain" »

2:20 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Unmarried Women Could Pay Huge Role in Fall Campaign

A new poll shows that there is a huge gap between married and single women in how they view the candidates, the issues, and the choices America faces. The poll done by Democratic pollsters Stan Greenberg and Anna Greenberg of Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research found that "unmarried women tend Democratic, preferring a Democrat to a Republican for President by 41 percentage points, and are already playing a large role in the Democratic primaries."

(Disclosure: Together with Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, Stan Greenberg conducts bi-partisan surveys for NPR on the main issues of the day.)

The poll had some interesting findings. The idea of a "women's agenda" is outdated. What matters now is more of a "life stage" agenda - thus the split between married and unmarried women.

While both groups prefer Democrats in a generic campaign, when the candidates' names are added differences emerge. Clinton and Obama continue to lead only among unmarried women (62 to 31 percent) by significant margins. Married women split their vote between McCain and Clinton or McCain and Obama.

There are issues that the two subsets agree on: 77 percent of married and unmarried women agree that the country is headed in the wrong direction, and both groups of agree that the economy is the number one issue this year.

But the poll also shows that neither Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton have done a good job of winning the support of this unmarried women. And the pollster say that it is a group that is poised to turn out in record numbers in 2008.

"At 26% of the electorate, unmarried women now represent a larger portion of voters than blacks and Hispanics combined," said Page Gardner, President, Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund in a release that accompanied the survey. "Yet their priorities aren't on any candidate's agenda. If either of the candidates wants to be the nominee, and then wants to win in November, he or she needs to learn to connect with these women in terms of how they live."

This is an even more interesting comment: "Unmarried women are to progressives what evangelicals were to conservatives in 2004," said Stan Greenberg. "Unmarried women will make a tremendous impact in primaries and caucuses this year, and they are the road to the White House in 2008 general elections."

12:33 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

McCain Calls for Gas Tax Holiday

Republican presidential hopeful John McCain called for a temporary lifting of federal fuel taxes, in order to cut gas prices during the busy summer driving season. Speaking on a day when oil prices hit a new high, John McCain said the federal government could provide temporary relief by lifting its 18-cents-a-gallon gas tax between Memorial Day to Labor Day.

"The effect will be an immediate economic stimulus, taking a few dollars off a tank of gas every time a family, a farmer, or a trucker stops to fill up."

He also reiterated his earlier proposal to stop adding to the federal government's strategic petroleum reserve, in an effort to rein in record-high oil prices.

"And because the cost of gas affects the price of food, packaging, and just about everything else, these steps will help spread relief across the American economy."

The Labor Department says rising energy and food costs are largely responsible for the second-highest jump in wholesale prices in three decades last month.

McCain also called for permanent tax changes, including a cut in corporate tax rates, a doubling of the tax exemption for dependent children, and a simplification of the overall tax code. During a wide-ranging economic speech, the Arizona Senator also reiterated his commitment to free trade, and called for a one-year freeze in the federal government's discretionary spending.

Sen. Barack Obama's campaign was quick to respond to the McCain speech.

"Senator McCain's economic plan offers no change from George Bush's failed policies by going full speed ahead with fiscally irresponsible tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans that John McCain himself one said 'offended his conscience.' He also proposes a gift basket of new tax cuts for corporate America at a time when some CEOs are making more in a day than some workers make in a year. John McCain's plan is one that could have been written by the corporate lobbyists who run his campaign, and probably was," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

-- Scott Horsley

11:42 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post

 

Bob Johnson Says Ferarro Had It Right

He's back!

Bob Johnson, the former owner of Black Entertainment Television (BET) and owner of the Charlotte Bobcats, who made headlines in January when he talked about Sen. Barack Obama's admitted experiments with drugs when he was a youth, is at it again. The Charlotte Observer reports that his time the prominent Clinton supporter says that Geraldine Ferarro had it right - Barack Obama would not be leading the race for the Democratic presidential nomination if he were white.

"What I believe Geraldine Ferraro meant is that if you take a freshman senator from Illinois called 'Jerry Smith' and he says I'm going to run for president, would he start off with 90 percent of the black vote?" Johnson said. "And the answer is, probably not... ."

"Geraldine Ferraro said it right. The problem is, Geraldine Ferraro is white. This campaign has such a hair-trigger on anything racial ... it is almost impossible for anybody to say anything."

Johnson also rejected the idea that Obama had built a broad coalition, saying most of his support from African Americans and white liberals but not white, working-class Democrats.

"I don't think he has that common -- what I call 'I-want-to-go-out-and-have-a-drink-with-you -- touch'," Johnson said.

Johnson said Obama would probably win the nomination because he has the support of the "liberal" media.

The Obama campaign dismissed Johnson's comments.

"This is just one in a long line of absurd comments by Bob Johnson and other Clinton supporters who will say or do anything to get the nomination," said spokesman Dan Leistikow. "The American people are tired of this and are ready to turn the page on these kind of attack politics."

(Hat tip - Michael Olson)

10:37 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post

 

Quinnipiac Poll Shows Clinton Keeps 6-point Lead

In a new poll just out, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute's latest Pennsylvania's survey shows that Sen. Hillary Clinton has maintained her six-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama. Quinnipiac's assistant polling director Clay Richards reported that there was "no noticeable [change] in the matchup in polling April 12 - 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama's 'bitter' comments."

More on the poll:

* White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week;
* Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent;
* Women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent, unchanged from 54 - 41 percent last week;
* Men are for Obama 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 48 - 44 percent tie last week;
* Reagan Democrats back Clinton 55 - 40 percent;
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 40 percent.

Fifty-five percent of those polls said they thought Obama would win the Democratic presidential nomination, including 32 percent of Clinton supporters.

"Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama's drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign," said Richards.

"Two big questions are whether the Clinton forces can keep from getting discouraged by all the talk she can't win the nomination even if she wins Pennsylvania and whether enthusiasm for Obama will translate into a record turnout of blacks and young first-time voters that would deny Clinton the victory she needs to stay alive," Richards added.

The poll of more than 2000 likely Democratic voters also found that 26 percent of Clinton voters said they would switch to Republican nominee Sen. John McCain in the fall if Obama was the nominee; 19 percent of Obama supporters said they would switch.

10:05 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Former U.S. Diplomats Worried About U.S. Image

One of the issues sure to come up during this year's presidential election campaign is the image of the U.S. in the rest of the world. There is surprising consensus among the three remaining candidates about the issue; Democrats have been saying for a while that the Bush administration policies have hurt America's image in the world and Republican Presidential nominee Sen. John McCain also recently said that Bush had not paid enough attention to this issue.

Recent international surveys have confirmed this problem. Nearly two-thirds of more than 4,000 respondents in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said they held a "very unfavourable" attitude of the United States, up from 57 percent in late 2006. In a recent Global Attitudes Poll, favorable opinions of the U.S. were up slightly, primarily because many people around the world were looking forward to the end of the Bush administration.

Meanwhile, a study by Quinnipiac University professor of public relations Kathy Fitzpatrick (Fitzpatrick released the study in late March) indicates that there is concern about this issue among American diplomats as well.

An overwhelming majority (88 percent) of more than 200 former high-ranking officers in the United States Information Agency who participated in the study said the U.S. is not diplomatically prepared to address ideological threats to U.S. interests in the 21st century ...

More than 80 percent of the former USIA officers rated American public diplomacy efforts today as either "poor" or "marginal." In contrast, more than 80 percent of the former USIA officers rated America's public diplomacy efforts during the Cold War as "good" or "excellent."

"The responses of these diplomatic experts were both passionate and emphatic," said Fitzpatrick, a professor of public relations who conducted the study. "They clearly believe that much needs to be done to rebuild America's public diplomacy."

Do you think "America's image" will become a campaign image in the fall? Or does the relative agreement of the three candidates on the issue mean it will play a minor role?

8:56 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Cindy McCain More Complex Than Campaign Shows

Jill Zuckman of the Chicago Tribune has an interesting profile of Cindy McCain, the wife of Republican nominee Sen. John McCain. McCain is a far more intriguing personality than her rather quiet campaign role would suggest.

For instance, her very active interest work with Halo Trust, the international group that removes mines from post-conflict countries. Zuckman also talks to McCain about her children, including her son who has served in Iraq, her one-time addiction to pain-killers that was once the subject of a federal investigation, the millions left to her by her father, and her retort (which she said she made on her own) to Michelle Obama's comments about being proud of her country for the first time.

Worth a read.

7:49 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Democratic Candidates Shy Away From Gun Debate

Guns and guns rights, as always, remain a problem for Democratic candidates.

Part of the reason Sen. Barack Obama got into so much hot water with his economically "bitter" Pennsylvanians remarks was that he said they "cling" to guns (and religion) as compensation. And as NPR's Washington Editor Ron Elving noted Monday on Day to Day, "cling" is a word that has all kinds of bad connotations.

Meanwhile, Sen. Hillary Clinton was traveling the state talking about how her grandfather taught her to hunt and shoot. Sen. Obama pounced on this rather unexpected vignette, saying that Clinton sounded like she was "Annie Oakley." This 'champion of gun rights' tact of Clinton was unexpected because only eight years ago in a speech at the Newspaper Association of America meeting she said that "there isn't a more important task" than passing gun-safety laws.

Then the Democrats lost the 2000 presidential election. One reason, beside all the hanging chads in Florida, was that states like West Virginia, Tennessee and Arkansas (all supposedly in the Dem column) went Republican because many voters felt the Democrats were too anti-gun. And ever since, Democrats (on the federal level in particular) tip-toe around guns issues like someone trying to get around a bear in the middle of the path - you don't want to wake it up.

But in Pennsylvania guns are an issue. (The state legislature there recently defeated a measure that would have required handguns owners to tell the police if their weapons were lost or stolen.) The Associated Press has a look at guns and Pennsylvanians, the role the culture of gun ownership plays in the Democratic primary, and why politicians like Hillary Clinton suddenly want to sound like they were born with a rifle in their hands.

6:40 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Is Obama Behind by 20 Points in Pennsylvania?

A poll out today from the American Research Group caused a bit of a shock for the Obama campaign. It showed him behind Sen. Hillary Clinton by 20 points in Pennsylvania. (And get this - the pollsters at ARG don't think this difference has anything to do with Obama's "bitter" comments.)

But other pollsters are dubious about this one. As Carl Bialik writes in The Wall Street Journal's The Numbers Guy, "there are reasons to question ARG polling numbers."

"In a polling report card of 2008 primary accuracy issued by a rival survey company, ARG ranked in the bottom half of more than three dozen polling firms, among 2008 primaries through late February. It also ranked near the bottom in another ranking of pollster accuracy at fivethirtyeight.com, a Web site that tracks the Electoral College. And, as I wrote last month, the widely tracked polling averages at the political Web site Real Clear Politics don't include ARG numbers, because of concerns about transparency. Like they've been in Pennsylvania, ARG polls also were volatile in previous primaries, notably in Wisconsin, which saw a 16-point swing in just two days."

(Two other recent polls show Clinton with a three-point and a four-point lead. Charles Franklin argues that the ARG poll is an "outlier," a poll that is quite distant from other polling data.)

Dick Bennett, the president of ARG, says while his company struggled in the early states, he says his record had been better in the big states. He attributes Sen. Clinton's apparent gain to Pennsylvania voters' skepticism about the Obama campaign's message. People are telling us that what they're hearing from him ... doesn't speak to the issues they're interested in."

But Clay Richards, the director of the Quinnipiac poll (perhaps the most respected pollster working in Pennsylvania) told Bialik that he doesn't expect his poll -- which will be released tomorrow -- to be much different from the last one that had Clinton leading by six points.

As noted above, neither pollster sees much impact from Obama's comments about "bitter" Pennsylvanians. "My hunch is [the remarks] won't make much of a difference because most voters who might feel insulted by his comments were already Clinton voters or Republicans who weren't going to vote for him, anyway," said Richards.

8:40 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Clinton is the Established "Brand" Candidate

Late last week, the News Blog looked at the "brands" of the candidates, the way they might be packaged as a product. (And let's be honest here, like it or not, that is exactly what happens to almost all political candidates of either party.)

Barack Obama is the "new thing" that appeals to the "millennial" generation. John McCain is the brand that wants to be the insider and the outsider at the same time. And Hillary Clinton?

Well, she comes from the "established" brand of Clinton. As Susan Jung Grant, assistant professor of marketing at the University of Colorado at Boulder explained on All Things Considered, think of Clinton as, well, a potato chip.

"Imagine an established brand, such as Lay's Potato Chips, says Jung Grant."Perhaps Sen. Clinton could be sour cream and chive potato chips," she says. 'It's the idea that it's a little bit different from the main category.' "

(Perhaps salt and vinegar or barbeque might be better, considering the last couple of days in the campaign. Then again, a new campaign slogan: "Betcha can't have just one Clinton.")

While being connected to the established brand is good, it has its drawbacks. "People feel like, 'Well, we know this candidate. We know what to expect.' And so, maybe, it's not invoking people to take a second look -- maybe ... there is almost too much familiarity," Jung Grant says.

But new bit of information can change the way people look at an established brand. Clinton's tears before the New Hampshire primary encouraged people to look at her in a new way.

Clinton's management style is old-school hands-on where direction comes from the top down, says University of Denver business professor Jim O'Toole -- like Wal-Mart, where Clinton served on the board of directors for six years.

Obama, on the other hand, is a hands-off, delegate authority manager, says O'Toole -- more like an Internet start-up. These differing management styles mirror a debate that has been taking place at business schools over which style is more effective.

"Young people are comfortable with the flannel-shirted software CEOs," says O'Toole. "A lot of older people are more comfortable with the General Motors approach."

Which style do you prefer? Steve Jobs or Sam Walton?

5:28 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Gallup Poll: Obama Increases Lead Over Clinton

In one of the first polls to come out since Sen. Barack Obama's comments about "bitter" Pennsylvanian voters "clinging" to religion and guns, The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll shows that Obama has narrowly increased his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, 50% to 40%.

"That 10-point lead matches Obama's best of the campaign, and even as the controversy has dominated the political airwaves, Obama's support remained strong in tracking interviews conducted on Saturday and Sunday. It is likely Clinton and Republican John McCain will continue to remind voters of the remarks, and the possibility remains that it could affect voters in the coming days, but so far they seem unaffected by the controversy."

In a general election, Obama leads Sen. John McCain 46% to 44%. Clinton leads McCain 46% to 45%

2:36 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

How "Bitter" Are Voters About Obama Comments?

Sen. Barack Obama's comments about rural Pennsylvanians being bitter over their economic situation has touched a nerve. But exactly whose nerve may be the question.

Over the weekend, the blogosphere, political pundits and cable news networks buzzed with talk about the remarks and whether or not they would derail Obama's campaign. But in the rural communities that were the focus of Obama's remarks, there does not seem to be anywhere near the outrage that there was in the media.

In a USAToday story, Ken Dilanian reports that in interviews with over a dozen people in heavily Republican York County Pennsylvania, "even conservative Republicans couldn't muster the sort of outrage over Obama's remarks that Clinton backers were expressing Sunday."

Several McCain supporters here said the comments wouldn't play well among rural Americans. But nearly everyone allowed that, in fact, many small-town residents are indeed bitter.

"Hell, yeah, they're bitter," said Harold Creager, a retired phone company technician who was sipping coffee in Rutter's, a convenience store. "George Bush has been a disappointment. The economy. Jobs. Immigration -- we're being invaded."

Philly.com columnist Jon Baer, "a native-born, small-town Pennsylvanian, a son of native-born, small-town Pennsylvania parents - one from the coal region, one from Lancaster County," writes that Obama was "basically right on target."

Continue reading "How "Bitter" Are Voters About Obama Comments?" »

2:10 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

DNC Files Suit to Compel FEC to Investigate McCain

The Democratic National Committee filed suit today to compel the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to investigate whether Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) violated election laws by pulling out of a federal matching funds program.

The DNC had already filed a complaint with the FEC alleging that McCain had violated federal election rules by unilaterally withdrawing from the program. The McCain campaign disputes that allegation.

"Despite Senator McCain's apparent belief that the reforms he championed apply to everyone but himself, there is a compelling public interest in determining whether Senator McCain agreed to participate in the matching funds program so he could get a loan for his campaign, then violated the terms of that agreement so he could ignore the spending cap and raise unlimited money from lobbyists and special interests," said DNC Executive Director Tom McMahon in an e-mailed statement.

The whole issue is further complicated by the lack of a quorum on the FEC. A dispute between the two parties means that three of the five seats on the commission are empty. NPR's Peter Overby has extensively reported on the situation.

The Hill reports that Republican Party officials say the suit has no merit. Alex Conant, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, called it "another desperate attempt by (DNC Chairman) Howard Dean to distract from a divisive battle within their own party."

1:57 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Report: Clinton Truly Believes Obama "Disaster-in-Waiting"

Would a Sen. Barack Obama presidential candidacy be a potential "disaster-in-waiting."

John F. Harris and Jim Vadehei write at Politico.com that the Clintons truly believe this, although they won't say so publicly -- "naive Democrats just don't see it. And a timid, pro-Obama press corps won't tell the story."

The authors argue for all its supposedly bitter personal remarks, it's actually rather tame campaign by past standards: an exercise in self-censorship.

Rip off the duct tape and here is what they would say: Obama has serious problems with Jewish voters (goodbye Florida), working-class whites (goodbye Ohio) and Hispanics (goodbye, New Mexico).

Republicans will also ruthlessly exploit openings that Clinton -- in the genteel confines of an intraparty contest -- never could. Top targets: Obama's radioactive personal associations, his liberal ideology, his exotic life story, his coolly academic and elitist style.

The authors write that Sen. Clinton believes she has to save the Democratic Party from itself. While the Democratic campaign has been a "prissy" affair, "one can be sure the general election will not be such a delicate affair."

1:18 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Influx of New Voters Could Change Election

It's the year of the new voter.

Take Pennsylvania. Since January, 210,000 new voters have been registered in Pennsylvania. Seventy percent of those new voters registered Democratic and 18 percent registered Republican.

African-Americans comprise many of those new voters, and they are clearly driven by the candidacy of Sen. Barack Obama. Another large group is 18-29-year olds -- a demographic also seen as favorable to Obama.

But McClatchy papers reports that this trend has not been limited to Democrats. "In New Hampshire, some 33,000 voters ages 18 to 29 cast ballots in the nation's first Republican primary, up 10,000 from 2000, the last contested GOP primary. Missouri and Texas also showed big increases in young GOP voters."

And experts say it's not just the appeal of Obama that's bringing out new voters for the Democrats.

This is an unusual election, in which "neither party has an incumbent and there's a subtext of recession and war," said Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, which analyzes voter turnout. Turnout traditionally jumps when times are tough.

Another factor is that Republican and Democratic organizers have become much more sophisticated in getting out the vote.

12:50 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Bill Clinton and China Are Linked Via His Foundation

Will Bill Clinton's business dealings be a problem for his wife's presidential campaign?

The Los Angeles Times reports a firm that donated to former President Clinton's foundation has been accused of collaborating with the government in its crackdown on Tibetan activists.

Sen. Clinton has taken a strong stance against China's internal crackdown on the Tibetan people.

"But her recent stern comments on China's internal crackdown collide with former President Bill Clinton's fundraising relationship with a Chinese Internet company accused of collaborating with the mainland government's censorship of the Web. Last month, the firm, Alibaba Inc., carried a government-issued 'most wanted' posting on its Yahoo China homepage, urging viewers to provide information on Tibetan activists suspected of stirring recent riots."

When Clinton addressed a conference of Internet executives in Hangzhou in September 2005, he accepted an unspecified private donation from Alibaba to his international charity, the William J. Clinton Foundation.

"This is a perfect example of why it's critical for both Clintons to provide prompt and complete disclosure of all their sources of income, not just personal sources but also his foundation," said Sheila Krumholz, executive director for the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, a government reform advocacy group.

Sen. Clinton's campaign deferred to her husband's foundation when asked about the donation. A spokeswoman for the foundation said, "President Clinton is not involved with Alibaba and is opposed to censorship and the repression of political dissent." But critics point out that even when he was specifically asked by Human Rights in China and Reporters Without Borders to raise Internet freedom issues in the speech, he did not.

11:16 AM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Faith and Values Forum Overshadowed By 'Bitter' Remarks

Sunday night's CNN's "Compassion Forum," a forum on faith and values, was overshadowed by bickering between the two candidates over remarks made by Sen. Barack Obama last week. At a closed door fundraiser in San Francisco, he said some rural Pennsylvanians were "bitter" about their economic situation and clung to guns and religion as a result.

Sen. Hillary Clinton warned that voters would see Obama as elitist and out of touch. She compared him to the two previous Democratic presidential nominees, Al Gore and John Kerry. She called them "two good men" but said "large segments of the electorate concluded that they did not really understand, or relate to, or frankly respect their ways of life. And I think that is an issue for the voters."

In his appearance right after Clinton's, Obama admitted his word were clumsy and responded. "I know that Al Gore was mentioned earlier," he said. "By the way, I have to say, I think Al Gore won. ..."

"...[W]hat I was referring to was in no way demeaning a faith that I myself embrace. What I was saying is that when economic hardship hits in these communities, what people have is they've got family, they've got their faith, they've got the traditions that have been passed onto them from generation to generation. Those aren't bad things. That's what they have left."

CNN reports that the two candidates also both spoke of their faith in starkly personal terms.

The Los Angeles Times reports that Clinton sees Obama's remarks as a chance to drive him the fact that Obama is unelectable. At a rally in North Carolina featuring former President Clinton, people in the audience were wearing "I'm not bitter" buttons given to them by the Clinton campaign.

7:10 AM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

In 1991, Bill Clinton Spoke of "Economically Insecure White People"

The controversy around Sen. Barack Obama's comments about economically "bitter" Pennsylvanians clinging to religion, guns and anti-immigration as a way to deal with their bitterness took another turn this afternoon. The Huffington Post, the same website/blog that first reported on Obama's remarks, unearthed comments by former President Bill Clinton that seem similar to Obama's.

The comments were made in 1991, when Clinton was running for the presidential nomination in Sept. of 1991, the Los Angeles Times reported that he said "The reason (George H. W. Bush's tactic) works so well now is that you have all these economically insecure white people who are scared to death."

Then two months later, Joe Klein wrote for the Sunday Times.

"You know, he [Bush] wants to divide us over race. I'm from the South. I understand this. This quota deal they're gonna pull in the next election is the same old scam they've been pulling on us for decade after decade after decade. When their economic policies fail, when the country's coming apart rather than coming together, what do they do? They find the most economically insecure white men and scare the living daylights out of them. They know if they can keep us looking at each other across a racial divide, if I can look at Bobby Rush and think, Bobby wants my job, my promotion, then neither of us can look at George Bush and say, 'What happened to everybody's job? What happened to everybody's income? What ... have ... you ... done ... to ... our ... country?'"

There has been no response from the Clinton campaign yet about the former President's remarks.

6:27 PM ET | 04-13-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Obama Gets Paper, Superdelegate Endorsements

Sometimes it's not the importance of the endorsement, but the timing that matters. And in this case the timing could not be better for Sen. Barack Obama.

Most of Saturday Obama tried to explain the comments that he made at a fundraiser in San Francisco last week, where he said some small town residents in Pennsylvania were bitter about their economic situation and that they often retreated into religion, guns or anti-immigration feelings to express that frustration. Both the Clinton and McCain campaigns attacked Obama relentlessly over the comments on Saturday. And the blogosphere has been abuzz with speculation over whether or not the comments will undo his campaign.

But this morning, Obama got two bits of good news. Sunday the Allentown (PA) Morning Call published an editorial supporting Obama's candidacy, writing "Sen. Clinton has made much of her ''ability to lead' on day one in the Oval Office. Past experience like hers is one thing, but leadership also depends on having a vision, plans to pursue that vision, and an ability to inspire others to follow. On those grounds, Sen. Barack Obama is well-suited to lead, and The Morning Call recommends his nomination in the Democratic primary."

The paper also reported on the reactions of local residents to Obama's comments, which it described as "varied." Many residents don't seem to have heard about the comments.

And Obama picked up another superdelegate vote. Nancy Larson, a Democratic National Committee member from Minnesota, told The Associated Press she decided to support Obama because his campaign will bring new people into the political process, and she believes he has the best chance of winning in November.
---
UPDATE: Obama also picked up the endorsement of the Scranton Times Tribune on Sunday. But the town's mayor, a Clinton supporter, doesn't agree.

11:00 AM ET | 04-13-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post

 

Obama Admits Mispeaking, But Stands By His Point

At an appearance at Muncie, Indiana today, Sen. Barack Obama said that he didn't express himself as well as he could when he said some people in Pennsylvania turn to guns and religion because of economic hard times that have stretched over a quarter of a century. But as CBS's From the Road blog reports he stood by his remark that they are increasingly bitter at the government in Washington.

"Now I didn't say it as well as I should have, because the truth is that these traditions that are passed on from generation to generation, those are important. That's what sustains us,?" Obama said at town hall meeting at Ball State University ...

"What is absolutely true is that people don't feel like they're being listened to. And so they pray and they count on each other and they count on their families. You know this in your own lives. What we need is a government that is actually paying attention, a government that is actually fighting for working people day in and day out, making sure that we are trying to allow them to live out the American dream. And that's what this campaign is about."

The Clinton campaign continued its attack on Obama's remarks as elitist, as did the McCain campaign. The chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party said Obama painted "Pennsylvanians as bitter gun-toting, racist, religious fanatics."

Meanwhile the latest Pennsylvania poll taken before Obama's remarks were made public shows him only behind Clinton by 4 percent, 47% to 43%.

"That's the smallest lead for Clinton of any Pennsylvania poll in the last week or so, according to Real Clear Politics," reports USAToday's OnPolitics. "It also puts Obama within the poll's 3.2 percentage points margin of error because Clinton's support could be as low as 43.8% (47-3.2=43.8) and Obama's could be as high as 46.2% (43+3.2=46.2). Pennsylvania's primary is set for April 22."

"Interestingly, Zogby says it did not use its automated, robo-call technology to do its latest survey. Instead, the polling company says, the survey 'was conducted April 9-10, 2008, and includes 1,002 likely Democratic primary voters using live telephone operators calling from Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York.' "

But this good news for Obama really doesn't matter. What will count is the next poll, taken after news of the remarks broke.

5:00 PM ET | 04-12-2008 | permalink | comments (35) | e-mail post

 

Sen. Clinton Tells Bill Clinton to Not Talk About Bosnia

Former President Bill Clinton says his wife called him Friday and told him to quit talking about her trip to Bosnia in 1996.

"Hillary called me and said, 'I misstated it, you said I misstated it, but you got to let me handle it because you don't remember it, either.' ... I said, 'Yes, ma'am,' " Bill Clinton said in Terre Haute, Indiana.

On Thursday he had strongly defended his wife and her account of her trip to Bosnia in 1996. "You would have thought, you know, that she'd robbed a bank the way they carried on about this," he said at the time. "And some of them, when they're 60, they'll forget something when they're tired at 11 at night, too." Unfortunately, when defending her he got several elements of his wife's story wrong.

CNN reports that Clinton campaign spokesman Phil Singer said, "Sen. Clinton appreciates her husband standing up for her, but this was her mistake, and she takes responsibility for it."

When asked to comment on the president's earlier remarks, Sen.Barack Obama said only, "I will let the Clintons explain Bosnia."

10:55 AM ET | 04-12-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Obama Remarks About Pennsylvanians Spark Controversy

In a speech at a San Francisco fundraiser originally reported by a blogger at the Huffington Post, Sen. Barack Obama said that residents of some small communities in Pennsylvania are "bitter" because they have been living in economically distressed areas for 25 years, "And it's not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

The Clinton and McCain camps were both quick to jump on the remarks and said it showed that Obama was an elitist.

"Well, that's not my experience," Clinton told a crowd of several hundred at Drexel University. "As I travel around Pennsylvania, I meet people who are resilient, who are optimistic, who are positive. . . . They're working hard every day for a better future for themselves and their children. Pennsylvanians don't need a president who looks down on them. They need a president who stands up for them, who fights for them."

"It's a remarkable statement and extremely revealing," McCain adviser Steve Schmidt said in a statement. "It shows an elitism and condescension towards hardworking Americans that is nothing short of breathtaking, it is hard to imagine someone running for president who is more out of touch with average Americans."

But in a speech in Indiana Friday night, Obama did not back away from his remarks, and "bristled" at the coments that he was out of touch with the concerns of working Americans.

Here is the video of those remarks last night:

Here are his original remarks from the fundraiser as posted by the Huffington Post:

Continue reading "Obama Remarks About Pennsylvanians Spark Controversy" »

7:11 AM ET | 04-12-2008 | permalink | comments (35) | e-mail post

 

As A Brand, Obama is "As Good As It Gets"

It seems to be brand and product comparison day around the ol' News Blog. Earlier it was a question about what product John McCain's campaign was most like - although many people didn't seem to think the comparison with Apple was appropriate.

But now it's Sen. Barack Obama's turn. Fast Company has a story on Obama as a brand. The Bryant Park Project did a story in it today.

The article quotes Keith Reinhard, chairman emeritus of DDB Worldwide about Obama:

"Barack Obama is three things you want in a brand," says Keith Reinhard, chairman emeritus of DDB Worldwide. "New, different, and attractive. That's as good as it gets." Obama has his greatest strength among the young, roughly 18 to 29 years old, that advertisers covet, the cohort known as millennials -- who will outnumber the baby boomers by 2010. They are black, white, yellow, and various shades of brown, but what they share -- new media, online social networks, a distaste for top-down sales pitches -- connects them more than traditional barriers, such as ethnicity, divide them.

The article is a fascinating look at how Obama has used new social networking tools to reach out to young people in a way that has brought him to the frontrunner's position in the Democratic race and made him the recipient of millions of dollars in donations.

The best question is can he convince the individuals in the above demographic to come out and vote for him? Or do they just want to make music videos about him for YouTube, sent him tweets via Twitter, or blog about how cool he is?

5:15 PM ET | 04-11-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Bush Hits Lowest Job Approval Rating of Presidency

It's a good thing the Bush administration doesn't pay any attention to polls.

The latest Gallup Poll shows President Bush with the lowest approval rating of his eight years in office, 28 percent. Only three presidents have had lower ratings since World War II - Jimmy Carter who also hit 28 percent, Richard Nixon in the mid-20s and Harry Truman at 22 percent, all in the last year of their administrations. Bush may only find consolation with the Harry Truman comparison.

"Bush's average for his first seven years in office was 52%, a tenure marked by a slide from high ratings in his first two years to the very low ratings in his sixth and seventh years, and in the first months of 2008. Bush's highest job approval rating is 90%, recorded in September 2001, just after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and is the highest job approval rating in Gallup history. On a year-by-year basis, Bush's ratings have gone from 68% and 71% averages in his first two years to 33% in his seventh year."

What really hurt Bush was that he had a low rating from independents and only two-thirds of his Republican base gave him higher marks.

"Presidents who receive job approval ratings in the 20% range are generally beset by economic concerns, wars, or scandals," notes Gallup. "Now, Bush, the current president, has obtained a 28% job approval rating at a time when Americans are extraordinarily worried about the economy, when gas prices have risen to historical high points, in the middle of a war that the majority of Americans say was a mistake, and at a time when only 15% of Americans say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States."

2:45 PM ET | 04-11-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Bill Clinton Complicates Hillary's Bosnia Story

Remember that earlier posting about surrogates and how they can sometimes make a candidate's life more difficult?

No doubt sometimes (OK, maybe more than a few times) Sen. Hillary Clinton must wish that her husband would just leave things be. For instance, the much-criticized story of her "sniper-fire" visit to Bosnian in 1996. Clinton took a real beating in the media for her many factual errors in her version of that story that were caught by media organizations like the Washington Post.

Yesterday during a visit to Jasper Ind., former President Clinton offered, as ABC's Jake Tapper wrote, "a bit of revisionist history of his wife's Bosnia story ..."

Here's the video of Clinton speech.

Tapper found eight factual errors in Clinton's explanation of his wife's visit, including that she told the story at 11 p.m. at night when she was tired (when she actually repeated the story several times, including at times earlier in the day), the Bosnian president said there would be snipers (and he didn't), that she immediately apologized for her mistake in her story (she didn't - it took 11 days to talk about it and she didn't apologize.)

You can read the other mistakes at Tapper's Political Punch blog.

UPDATE: An interesting point made by one of our readers below. If Hillary Clinton got confused at 11 p.m. because she was tired and "60," according to her husband, what does that say she'll be like at 3 a.m. in the morning when those phone calls come in from Gen. Petraeus and Ben Bernanke?

Perhaps the most intriguing question is why President Clinton felt it was necessary to bring it up again at all?

2:00 PM ET | 04-11-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Want to Cut Murder Rate in Big Cities in Half

In a speech today in Philadelphia, Sen. Hillary Clinton said she wants to cut the murder rate in big cities in half. It's part of an anti-crime agenda that she has labeled "Solutions for Safe and Secure Communities Now." The plan would put 100,000 more police officers on American streets and invest $1 billion "in a competitive grant program to reduce the number of repeat offenders and the size of the population in prisons and juvenile lock-ups nationwide."

"It is a sad day in America when the President can find hundreds of billions of dollars to police another country's civil war, but cuts funding for police officers right here at home," said Clinton. "We deserve better. Our mayors like my friend Mayor Nutter shouldn't be tackling this problem alone. At its core, my agenda is about responsibility. It's about the federal government living up to its responsibility to help restore order in our communities, pave the way for economic development and new jobs, and help our families feel safe in their homes and neighborhoods."

One of the biggest complaints that many big city mayors have is the easy access to illegal weapons that are often brought into their cities from other states. (New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been trying to sue gun shops in states like Virginia over this issue.) Clinton's plan does include measures to combat this problem, including some that will be undoubtedly opposed by the National Rifle Association.

For instance, Clinton says she would renew the Assault Weapons Ban to take the most dangerous categories of firearms and magazines off the streets, and repeal the Tiahrt amendment, named after Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.), which limits ATF's authority to share federal gun-trace data with local law enforcement for investigatory purposes.

The NRA opposes both measures in their current form.

11:49 AM ET | 04-11-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Surrogates Play Larger Roles in Campaigns

When you're a candidate for president, you're on your own. And in a campaign like the current Democratic one, where every vote counts, there never seems to be enough of the candidate to go around. So surrogates have assumed a greater role. It's help that can sometimes hurt -- we've seen surrogates in both Democratic campaigns damage their candidates with off-hand comments and mistakes.

But to give you an idea of how one candidate, Sen. Hillary Clinton, relies on surrogates to help her campaign, here's the list sent to reporters today about who is speaking on her behalf today.

PENNSYLVANIA

- Chelsea Clinton is in Pennsylvania again today hosting "Our Economy, Our Future" events in Slippery Rock and Edinborough before attending a conversation at the Pennsylvania College Democrats Convention in Philadelphia.

- Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse is hosting a conversation with Pennsylvania students in State College before attending the Centre County Democratic Committee Spring dinner buffet in Boalsburg.

- Reverend Marcia Dyson attends a prayer breakfast, meets with voters at Ms. Toosi's Restaurant Bar, and canvasses in Philadelphia. She hosts a "Women for Hillary" bring your own phone (BYOP) house party, also in Philadelphia, later in the day.

- Former Secretary of Transportation Rodney Slater attends the Indiana County Democratic Committee Spring Banquet on behalf of Hillary in Indiana, PA.

- Beginning his tour of Pennsylvania today, Italian-American activist and New Hampshire Rep. Lou D'Allesandro campaigns in Bloomsburg and Lake Harmony.

- Actor Sean Astin is talking with students at colleges and universities in Williamsport, Wilkes-Barre, and Hazleton. This evening, Astin stops by an LGBT happy hour in Allentown.

INDIANA

- Campaigning in the Hoosier state, President Bill Clinton attends "Solutions for America" events in Clinton and Greencastle and is joined by former Indiana Secretary of State Joe Hogsett.

- General Wesley Clark hosts a roundtable with Hoosier veterans in Scottsburg as part of his multi-day tour sharing with voters why Hillary is ready to lead on Day One.

- A New York dairy farmer, grape grower and former National Farmer's Union adviser campaign across the Hoosier State testifying to Hillary's strong agricultural record in New York. The New York farmers are visiting Bloomington, Bedford, and Jasper.

NORTH CAROLINA

- President Bill Clinton is campaigning across the Tar Heel state, attending "Solutions for America" events in Roanoke Rapids and Rocky Mount. Environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, and Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio join President Clinton in the Tar Heel State.

11:00 AM ET | 04-11-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

John McCain: The "Apple" of American Politics

If John McCain's campaign were compared to a well-known product, what would it be? Perhaps the computer company Apple?

As NPR's David Kestenbaum reported on All Things Considered, business professors see a lot of similarities in the two. Both went through boom, bust, then boom cycles. And both try to be insiders and outsiders at the same time.

Like McCain, Apple fell on hard times, says David Brady, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a professor of political science at Stanford University. The Mac computer lost sales to the PC but came back. McCain embodies a similar maverick appeal, he says.

"It's never kind of mainstream, in the sense that it doesn't sell as many computers as Dell or HP, but they've got a nice loyal following," he says of both the computer and the campaign.

But a business trying to copy the McCain experienced would have a hard time. The former chief adviser to John Edwards' campaign, Joe Trippi, says the schizophrenic nature of McCain's campaign makes it hard to pinpoint the type of CEO its leader would be in the business world.

On one hand, Trippi says, McCain made the "tough decisions" in his campaign by overhauling his staff when the campaign nearly went bankrupt. But it also took a while for McCain to make those decisions, he says. "It's like you've got a great CEO and a really scary one in the same guy."

9:48 AM ET | 04-11-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Obama and the Culture Clash Over Street Money

Sen. Barack Obama has good numbers in the Philadelphia region of Pennsylvania. It's one of his strongest areas of support in the state. But all that support in the polls may not amount to much if he's not willing to fork over "street money."

The Los Angeles Times reports that Obama's campaign has said it will not pay the hundred of thousands of dollars that is normally paid to the city's Democratic operatives in return for getting out the vote. Obama says he wants to transform American politics and paying people to round up votes is not part of his plan. But as the Times reports, it's the way things work -- apparently legally -- in Philadelphia.

Carol Ann Campbell, a ward leader and Democratic superdelegate who supports Obama, estimated that the amount of street money Obama would need to lay out for election day is $400,000 to $500,000.

"This is a machine city, and ward leaders have to pay their committee people," Campbell said. "Barack Obama's campaign doesn't pay workers, and I guarantee you if they don't put up some money for those street workers, those leaders will most likely take Clinton money. It won't stop him from winning Philadelphia, but he won't come out with the numbers that he needs" to win the state.

State Rep. Dwight Evans said there may be a racial element to the dispute.

"They view it that the white people are getting all the money for TV," said Evans, an African American and former ward leader. "And they're the ones who are the foot soldiers on the street. They're predominantly African Americans, and they're not the ones who are getting that TV money."

Local political operatives hope Obama will change his mind before the primary date. And they see it as a matter of respect. "It's our tradition," Garry Williams, a ward leader based in north-central Philadelphia, said. "You don't come to someone's house and change the rules of someone's house."

8:20 AM ET | 04-11-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

The Colbert "Bump" and Democratic Fundraising

File this under wikiality ...

Comedian Stephen Colbert, that master of truthiness ("Truthiness is what you want the facts to be, as opposed to what the facts are. What feels like the right answer as opposed to what reality will support," according to Colbert), has always claimed that an appearance on his show, The Colbert Report, results in a "bump" in popularity or book sales for that particular individuals. Then again, anyone who hosts a TV show that includes an interview segment is going to make that claim.

But it turns out it may be true ... for Democrats anyway.

University of California at San Diego political science professor James Folwer has written a tongue-in-cheek but legitimately researched article for Political Science & Politics that looks at donations to politicians before and after an appearance on Colbert's show. And he says his research shows that Democratic candidates who went on the air with Colbert saw a (get ready now ...) 44 percent increase in their donations.

Republicans, however, saw no similar increase in their funding ... which may tell us a lot about just who does watch Colbert.

Continue reading "The Colbert "Bump" and Democratic Fundraising" »

7:30 AM ET | 04-11-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Obama And McCain Squabble Over Public Financing

Democrats still haven't picked their presidential nominee. But Barack Obama is already jostling with Republican John McCain over how to finance the fall campaign. McCain intends to take public funds, and he accuses Obama of breaking a promise to do so. But like anything to do with campaign money, that political spat is just part of the story.

The government would give each major party nominee more than 84 Million dollars, provided that he or she doesn't take money from private donors. It's a Watergate-era reform and McCain and Obama are competing to wear the halo of a reformer.

Months ago, they seemed to strike an agreement on public financing. If both were nominated and one said yes to it, so would the other. Obama even answered Yes on a questionnaire that asked if he would use public funds.

Then Obama's fundraising shot into the stratosphere. The higher it goes, the less incentive he has to take public funds.

McCain is making the promise a campaign issue. "I made a promise to the American people that I would," McCain said recently. "And he made a promise. Apparently he may not keep that."

Obama prefers to talk about a different promise -- to change Washington. It's a central theme of his campaign. This week, at a fundraiser in Washington, he said lobbyists with lots of campaign cash shouldn't have so much influence: "I don't love the way they dictate the agenda in Washington D-C -- because I want the American people to dictate that agenda."

Continue reading "Obama And McCain Squabble Over Public Financing" »

8:22 PM ET | 04-10-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

McCain Says Stop Adding to Strategic Oil Reserves

Republican presidential hopeful John McCain called on the federal government to stop adding to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in an effort to curb record high oil and gas prices.

McCain spoke at a small business roundtable in Brooklyn and said with oil selling for over 100-dollars a barrel, the federal government should stop buying oil for its emergency stockpile. He said if the classic laws of supply and demand hold, that should lower the price of oil. The government has been adding to the reserve at a rate of about 300-thousand barrels a week. That's about 3-tenths of one percent of total US consumption.

McCain also outlined his plan to help stuggling but well-meaning homeowners refinance into cheaper mortgages. He also reiterated his opinion, though, that it's not the government's job to spare people from the consequences of their own bad judgement.

McCain's Democratic rivals have been proposing more aggressive government action to address the mortgage crisis. The Arizona Senator is expected to deliver a more wide-ranging speech on the economy next week.

-- Scott Horsley

4:14 PM ET | 04-10-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Al-Maliki Says Petraeus is Wrong about Troop Needs

It seems Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama may have found an unlikely ally for their stance in favor of early withdrawals of U.S. troops from Iraq - Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Both Democrats say they'll start pulling out U.S. troops if they are elected in the fall. And it seems that would be just fine with al-Maliki

Over the past two days, Petraeus has repeatedly told members of Congress that withdrawals needed to be halted at the end of July for a 45-day evaluation period, to be followed by an indefinite assessment period before troop withdrawals begin again.

But The Associated Press reports that al-Maliki doesn't agree with Petraeus.

"The prime minister told [President] Bush during a 20-minute telephone conversation on Wednesday that Iraqi security forces are capable of carrying out their duties and U.S. troops should be pulled out as the situation permits, according to a senior government adviser who sat in on the phone conversation. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose the confidential details."

After the recent offensive in Basra, President Bush hailed Maliki's "bold moves." But during congressional testimony, Petraeus said al-Maliki made the decision to attact Shiite militias in the southern city on his own, and did not heed U.S. military advice on the situation.

Last May, President Bush said that anytime Iraq asked the U.S. troops to leave, they would leave. It will be interesting to see if President Bush will honor that promise if the wishes of the Iraqi Prime Minister -- who he has praised for his "strength of character" and "good judgement" -- continue to conflict with that wishes of his senior military commanders.

4:00 PM ET | 04-10-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

McCain Likes to Go to Places that Republicans Avoid

One of the hallmarks of the Bush administration is the carefully selected crowd that attends an event that features the president. Whether it's a town hall meeting or a major policy speech, the crowd is almost guaranteed to never give the president a hard time or boo him.

Which is why Sen. John McCain's strategy of heading into areas that probably haven't seen a Republican politician since the middle of the last century is so interesting. Take, for instance, his appearance at the Lorraine Motel in Memphis on the 40th anniversary of the assassination of Rev. Martin Luther King there. It was not a necessary friendly crowd. Many of those who heard him apologize for not supporting in 1983 a national holiday in recognition of King booed or heckled him. But many others gave him kudos for coming.

And that's part of what McCain is aiming for as he crafts his image in the mind of the America voter.

As John Dickerson writes in Slate.com, "McCain is planning to speak in inner cities, heavily African-American sections of the South, and poor sections of Appalachia. Most of his stops will be in areas where voters have traditionally supported Democrats."

Dickerson says that McCain doesn't think he can win many new votes in these areas, nor is he trying to show "independents that he cares about minorities and the underprivileged, a traditional bank shot candidates take in order to make themselves appealing to moderate voters."

His goal, writes Dickerson, is more like "performance art" an attempt to show off the unfiltered and authentic McCain. But it's also an attempt to generate some media attention at a time when that's not easy for the Republican nominee to do. "The press likes Republicans-doing-unorthodox-things stories, and McCain likes to see himself reflected back as a maverick in their coverage."

But the underlying idea is that the McCain people want to paint Sen. Barack Obama as "a big phony." While the Obama campaign has been "conservative" in its approach to the media, McCain loves to mix it up with reporters. He sees it as a real strength of his campaign. "Obama talks about doing these things," says a McCain aide, "he just doesn't do them."

11:51 AM ET | 04-10-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Obama Says Repeal of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' Possible

While Sen. Hillary Clinton has given numerous interviews with the gay and lesbian press, Sen. Barack Obama has been notably absent. That lead many in the LGBT community to think that Obama had a problem with the community. But last week, Obama sat down for a long interview with The Advocate, a leading LGBT magazine.

Perhaps the most interesting nugget to come out of the interview is that Obama favors repealing the "don't ask, don't tell" policy on gays, which was instituted during the Clinton administration. But he won't require that his appointees to the Joint Chief of Staff approve of allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military.

"I would never make this a litmus test for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Obviously, there are so many issues that a member of the Joint Chiefs has to deal with, and my paramount obligation is to get the best possible people to keep America safe. But I think there's increasing recognition within the Armed Forces that this is a counterproductive strategy -- ya know, we're spending large sums of money to kick highly qualified gays or lesbians out of our military, some of whom possess specialties like Arab-language capabilities that we desperately need. That doesn't make us more safe, and what I want are members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who are making decisions based on what strengthens our military and what is going to make us safer, not ideology."

Obama also says that he interested in repealing the Defense of Marriage Act -- "I think as more states sign civil union bills into law the federal government should be helping to usher in a time when there's full equality in terms of what that means for federal benefits ... I think the federal government historically has led on civil rights -- I'd like to see us lead here too," he told The Avocate.

But he was more circumspect on legislation such as a Employment Non-Discrimination Act. Obama says he's been honest with groups interested in the legislation that it will be a tough fight to get gender identity included in the act.

"We've got some Democrats who are willing to vote for a non-inclusive bill but we lose them on an inclusive bill, and we just may not be able to generate the votes. I don't know. And obviously, my goal would be to get the strongest possible bill -- that's what I'll be working for."

11:37 AM ET | 04-10-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Obama Talks About Money from Oil Co. Employees

Getting money from someone who works for an oil company and getting money from oil companies are different things. So says Sen. Barack Obama.

In an interview with the South Bend (Indiana) Tribune, reporter Ed Ronco asks Obama about his commercials that say he doesn't take money from oil companies. Here's the transcript of the exchange:

Tribune: In that same commercial [where Obama talks about a windfall profit on oil companies], you're at a gas station and you say you don't take money from oil companies. Nobody takes money from oil companies, because corporations can't give to campaigns. And critics have said that you do take some money from CEOs of those companies.

Obama: Well, what you said is not entirely true. Oil companies have PACs (political action committees). Oil companies have lobbyists. They organize and provide big bundles of money to candidates all across the board. And we don't take money from PACs and we don't take money from lobbyists. Not just from oil companies -- we don't take drug PAC money, we don't take insurance PAC money, we don't take bank PAC money or lobbyist money. So it's true that I've received money from various people who might work in the oil industry, because we campaign nationwide, we get money from everybody. We've got 1,300,000 donors. But that would include a guy who works at the gas station at the corner who sent me $25 over the Internet.

Interesting how the CEO of an oil company who donates to Obama was sort of magically transformed into the guy who works at the corner gas station and gives $25. Now that's political spinning at its best.

After the interview, Obama went on to give a speech before an overflow crowd of 3,500 at South Bend's Washington High. South Bend Mayor Stephen Luecke gave a "surprise" endorsement of Obama. "Because he connects our minds and our hearts," Luecke said of supporting Obama. "He makes so many different connections."

The event at South Bend was the first stop in a three-day tour of Indiana, which holds its primary on May 6th. Recent polls have basically shown Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton in a tie among the state's Democratic voters.

10:10 AM ET | 04-10-2008 | permalink | comments (19) | e-mail post

 

New House Member Supports Clinton

Democrat Jackie Speier, who won a special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. Tom Lantos, who died in February, will be sworn in today. She'll represent California's 12th district in the House. She'll need to win the district again in the fall, but she is expected to easily win reelection - on Tuesday, she won 78 percent of the vote.

Speier's life truly sounds like a novel. From being one of the few survivors in Rep. Leo Ryan's group at Jonestown in the 1978 massacre (she was shot at close range five times and left for dead), to the death of her husband in a car crash, to her work in the California legislature where she became the author of trailblazing consumer protection laws. NPR's Ina Jaffe talked to Speier and it's really worth a listen.

She's now a superdelegate and has informed The Associated Press that she supports Sen. Hillary Clinton.

That increases the number of superdelegates to 795 and the overall number of delegates to 4,048, which increases the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination to 2,025. (Remember, this is the number needed to win WITHOUT counting Florida and Michigan delegates. If Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama can reach an agreement, the number of delegates needed to win will increase.)

Here is a round up of the numbers as they now stand, according to AP.

Total:

Obama: 1638
Clinton: 1502

Pledged:

Obama: 1414
Clinton: 1250

Superdelegates:

Obama: 224
Clinton: 252

8:30 AM ET | 04-10-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Will Iraq Still Be a Political Issue in the Fall?

After two days of testimony from Gen. David Petraeus and Amb. Ryan Crocker, one thing is pretty clear. While the economy may be the dominate issue in the fall, Iraq is not going to go away.

On Talk of the Nation NPR's politics editor, Ken Rudin, said he thinks that there is little doubt that Iraq will be on the front burner in November.

"I've seen some polls that I've seen say the war won't be a key issue in November," Ken told Neil Conan. "But I disagree completely. I still think that no matter what the economy looks like, the fact that American men and women are still dying there, it has to be an issue, it will be an issue, and it will make either make or break the Democrats or the Republicans from winning the White House in the fall."

Meanwhile, Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com notes one key moment in yesterday's hearings in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close confidant of GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain tried to get Petraeus to give McCain a little political edge.

"[Graham] referring to the Democratic presidential candidates, urged, cajoled, and all but begged Petraeus to state that a rapid, one-brigade-a-month troop withdrawal would be a disaster. But Petraeus was cautious: 'It clearly will depend on the conditions at the time.'

"His unwillingness to bite when pressed by Graham is a tacit acknowledgment of the political realities that will assert themselves acutely in November of this year. Petraeus currently works for a president who desperately wants to keep the violence down for six more months and begin to withdraw troops before the election. But starting after the election, Petraeus will either work with a Democrat who will demand a quick draw-down or with a Republican whose actual policy is less radical than it sounds: McCain wants to manage an honorable withdrawal but wants to be the one who defines what honor is. Which means that the general needs to keep his options open."

Seems Petraeus is just as good at the political game as are the men and women who spent two days grilling him.

7:30 PM ET | 04- 9-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

So What's Up With the Polls in Pennsylvania?

Pennsylvania is starting to look a bit like New Hampshire when it comes to polls.

For instance, SurveyUSA has a Pennsylvania poll that has Sen. Hillary Clinton up by 18 points, Quinnipiac published a poll yesterday that has Clinton up by six, while the American Research Group had a poll last week that had the candidates tied.

So why the huge difference in the numbers? Brian Schaffner who posts on the blog at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, says it's not the difference between live and automated interviewers. (Quinnipiac does live calls, the other two automated.) Nor does it seem that the questions asked should elicit such a difference.

Schaffner writes that the SurveyUSA group had a higher proportion of women - which may account for the good numbers for Clinton. "What may be more notable is that among various subgroups, the samples appear to find very different preferences," he writes.

Continue reading "So What's Up With the Polls in Pennsylvania?" »

1:18 PM ET | 04- 9-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Libertarians Get Ready For Their Nomination Battle

As Ken Rudin writes in this week's Political Junkie column, "There's no reason why the Democrats should have all the fun. It looks like there is going to be a fight for the Libertarian Party's presidential nomination as well."

Normally the Libertarians don't get much attention during presidential election campaigns. And they haven't done much better in the election itself. (There are a lot of reasons for that - lack of media attention, a message that is sometimes hard to explain, and many Libertarians tend to vote Republican to help that party in elections.) Since it founding in 1971, the Libertarian candidate for president, while usually making it on to all 50 ballots, has never drawn a million votes. As Ken notes, "Ed Clark, a California attorney, was the party's most successful presidential nominee to date, receiving 921,299 votes when he ran in 1980."

But after the success (particularly financial) of former Libertarian presidential candidate, and current GOP representative Ron Paul in this election campaign, hopes had been raised that he might run as a third-party candidate, again under the Libertarian banner. But it's not to be. Paul is actually still campaigning for the Republican nomination and says he will take his message all the way to the convention in Minneapolis.

So it looked like the nomination would be a yawner between several little know candidates including: Steve Kubby, a proponent of legalized marijuana for medical purposes who was the party's gubernatorial candidate in California in 1998; George Phillies, a physics professor at Worcester Polytech Institute and a former Massachusetts congressional candidate; and Wayne Allyn Root, a professional sports handicapper and author from Las Vegas.

"But then it got interesting," writes Ken.

Continue reading "Libertarians Get Ready For Their Nomination Battle" »

10:50 AM ET | 04- 9-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Elizabeth Edwards Praises Clinton Health Care Plan

It may be that the Clintons are not the only couple who disagree about politics.

In an appearance today on ABC's Good Morning America, Elizabeth Edwards, wife of former presidential candidate John Edwards, praised Sen. Hillary Clinton's health care plan, saying it was more inclusive than Sen. Barack Obama's. "You need that universality in order to get the cost savings ... I just have more confidence in Sen. Clinton's policy than Sen. Obama's on this particular issue," she said."

Edwards said she liked the idea of a "dream ticket" with Obama and Clinton, but she did say it is "difficult for a onetime adversary to switch tacks and automatically accept another person's positions on everything." Her husband, a one-time competitor to Sen. John Kerry, eventually became his running mate in 2004.

It's not the first time she's praised the Clinton plan. Edwards also spoke kindly of it when she was on Morning Edition Tuesday, and also last week at the Association of Health Care Journalists meeting in Crystal City, Virginia.

On ABC, she said she wouldn't endorse a candidate yet, but Taegan Goddard's Political Wire at Congressional Quarterly notes that Edwards has recently started work as a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress which "has been operating for the past two years as a kind of Hillary Clinton Administration-in-waiting."

An article in late March in New York magazine said that one reason why the Edwards may not have endorsed Obama is that Elizabeth Edwards and Obama allegedly clashed over health care when he visited the Edwards to seek their support. Last week in two TV appearances Elizabeth Edward denied that these reports. But she did hint that she and her husband might endorse different candidates after the North Carolina primary on May 6th.

9:54 AM ET | 04- 9-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Former President Clinton Favors FTA With Colombia

Who would have figured several months ago that free trade agreements with Canada and Colombia would become such albatrosses for the Democratic campaigns? First it was Sen. Barack Obama and Austan Goolsbee chat with Canadian officials. Now it's Sen. Hillary Clinton, a bevy of those close to her and the proposed FTA with Columbia.

It seems that Sen. Clinton can't swing a bat in a room of her advisers without hitting someone who supports the FTA with Colombia. The latest supporter turns out to be none other than former President Bill Clinton, who has been speaking in favor of the free trade agreement with the South American nation since 2000. The Trail reports that Sen. Clinton's campaign acknowledged the ex-president's support of the deal yesterday.

"Senator Clinton is the candidate for president and she is a clear and firm opponent of the Colombian free trade agreement," said Jay Carson, a Clinton spokesman. "Like other married couples who disagree on issues from time to time, she disagrees with her on husband on this issue."

(The Swamp reported yesterday that her communications director, Howard Wolfson, has an equity interest in the Glover Park Group, a DC PR firm that 'signed a $40,000 per month contract with the government of Colombia in April of 2007 to promote the very agreement that Clinton now rails against on the presidential campaign trail.' His interest is valued at $500,000 to $1 million.")

But the news about Clinton, coming on the heels of the news about Penn, makes it seem that Clinton has surrounded herself with people in favor of the agreement. It could prove to be costly in states like Pennsylvania and Indiana where free trade is a viewed with scorn by many voters.

8:30 AM ET | 04- 9-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Democratic Campaigns Battle Over Advisers Roles

John McCain must just love reading about this stuff.

First, Jimmy Hoffa, president of the Teamsters Union and supporter of Sen. Barack Obama seemed to put his candidate on the hot seat today when (during a conference call with reporters to talk about the Clinton campaign clearing up Mark Penn's role) he called on Obama to clarify the role of adviser Austan Goolsbee - he of the alleged statement to Canadian consulate officials that Obama was only kidding about the anti-free trade rhetoric.

Hoffa said Goolsbee should "make a statement" explaining "what he believed and what he believes he's going to be advising Barack Obama about, and Barack Obama should do the same thing" Hoffa said. "You know, end this mystery about what happened."

Opps.

A hour later, Hoffa sent reporters an e-mail saying he had "misspoken."

Continue reading "Democratic Campaigns Battle Over Advisers Roles" »

7:23 PM ET | 04- 8-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Michelle Obama Says Her Husband "Gets" Hard Times

Remember Michelle Obama? Tall, smart-as-a-whip, married to the man who may be the next president, plain-spoken ... although some might describe it as outspoken. It seems as if Michelle Obama had disappeared from the campaign trail for several weeks after she made her comment about being proud of the U.S. for the first time in her life because her husband had a chance for the Oval Office.

Her remarks, removed from its context and repeated endlessly on cable news generated some unwelcome heat for the Obama campaign. For a while after the event, she kept a relatively low profile.

But she's been making more public appearances lately. Today she is in North Carolina talking about economic hard times -- which makes sense because that's the number one issue on the minds of voters in the state according to recent polls.

She told a gathering in Harrisburg, North Carolina today that it wasn't until her husband wrote his two best-selling books and she paid off her student loans that the couple got out of debt.

"We are not so far away from life that we don't understand and get it," she told the crowd of 50 women at the meeting. "The truth is most Americans don't want much," Obama said. "Folks don't want the whole pie. Most Americans feel blessed to thrive a little bit -- but that's out of reach for them."

Both of the Obamas attended Harvard Law School -- it's not unusual for a student to leave the school more than $100,000 in debt because the school assumes most grads will eventually land in high-paying jobs. (Actually, times aren't all that hard for the Obamas - in 2006, they reported income of $996 226, mostly on royalties from the book sales. It was down from $1.7 million in 2005. They haven't reported their 2007 taxes yet, but have said they will do so this month.)

Michelle Obama also appears in a new ad designed to appeal to women in Pennsylvania. The ad features three female Obama supporters, all of whom are related to the Illinois senator: Michelle, his wife, Maya Soetoro Ng, his half sister, and Madelyn Dunham, his grandmother.

Here is the ad:

----
UPDATE: The Tartan, the college paper at Pennsylvania;s Carnegie Mellon University has a report on Michelle Obama's appearence there earlier this week with Theresa Heinz-Kerry. The paper interviewed some students who said they were put off by Obama organizers's attempt to create a "racially balanced" crowd behind Michelle Obama.

Most candidates try to create the right kind of crowd behind the candidate For instance, Sen. John McCain frequently has a crowd of young people behind him in order to create a counter-balance to the age issue. But in this case, the students interviewed believed the Obama people were a too blunt in their attempts at choreographing diversity.

(Hat tip to Deek)

5:23 PM ET | 04- 8-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Independent Groups Posed to Attack Nominees

Sen. John McCain is apparently ready to use public financing. But Democratic Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are not saying anything yet, especially considering how much money they've been able to raise so far. (Obama raised more in the past two months than McCain will get from the Federal Election Commission for the fall election.) That's because they might need every penny of it to fight back the attacks of the 527s.

The 527s are "loosely regulated political organizations that can raise 'soft money.' " Remember Swiftboat Veterans and POWs for Truth? The Democrats sure do. That particular 527 was so successful that it actually spawned a verb to describe its effect - being swiftboated: an ad hominem attack or smear campaign.

The Boston Globe reports that the 527s on both side of the political divide are getting ready to attack either the eventual Democratic nominee or Sen. John McCain.

"The new GOP group is still in embryonic form, Republicans strategists say, but it is being led by operatives who ran the 2004 Republican group Progress for America, and will probably be funded at least partly by 'alumni' of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, the group that used TV ads four years ago to challenge Kerry's well-documented heroism in Vietnam.

"One Republican strategist familiar with the plans said Republicans expect Senator Barack Obama, who leads rival Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race, to be their opponent and have begun assembling material to turn voters against him."

Regular campaign finance rules limit donations to $2,800 per individual. But 527s, named for a section of the tax code, use a loophole in the law that allows independent groups to operate more freely, permitting unlimited donations.

While the Globe says it's too early to get an exact figure, "527s, nonprofit organizations, and unions appear poised to spend at least $500 million combined to help swing the election to the candidates they favor, according to analysts and news accounts."

The possibility of attacks by 527s, particularly over his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, has lead Obama to adopt a wait and see attitude before he commits to public financing, especially in a year when it looks like he could raise enough money independently to combat their influence.

12:43 PM ET | 04- 8-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Python Cleese Offers to Write Speeches for Obama

And now for something completely different ...

Monty Python star John Cleese has offered to write speeches for Sen. Barack Obama if he becomes the U.S. president.

The Western Daily Press of England reports that Cleese, who now spends most of the year in California, is a huge fan of Obama.

"I am due to come to Europe in November but I may be tied up until then because if Barack Obama gets the nomination I'm going to offer my services to him as a speechwriter because I think he is a brilliant man," the 68-year-old film and TV star said.

"I live in California now and only come back to England in May or June when my personal assistant tells me it is safe to do so," he added. Cleese says the damp English weather gives him chest colds.

It wouldn't be Cleese's first entry into the political sphere (aside from the Ministry of Silly Walks, of course). In 1988, he recorded a political broadcast for the SDP-Liberal Alliance, the center-left party in British politics, now known as the Liberal Democrats.

Just as long as the speeches don't mention the war ...

11:56 AM ET | 04- 8-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Quinnipiac PA Poll Shows Obama Closing Fast

Over the past few days, there have been a couple of polls that have shown Sen. Barack Obama either tied, or ahead, in Pennsylvania. After the events of New Hampshire, media organizations have been a tad pickier about which polls to report, especially when the number of people polled resulted in a relatively large margin of error.

So when Quinnipiac University -- a much-trusted pollster -- released its latest poll on Pennsylvania this morning, people took notice. It showed that Sen. Barack Obama continues to gain ground on Sen. Hillary Clinton. Three weeks ago she was 12 points ahead, then last week it was nine points and this week it's six. And with the margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, it could even technically be much closer. (Quinnipiac polled 1,340 likely voters.)

More on the poll:

* White voters for Clinton 56 - 38 percent, down from 59 - 34 percent last week.
* Black voters back Obama 75 - 17 percent, compared to 73 - 11 percent.
* Men are for Obama 48 - 44 percent, compared to a 46 - 46 percent tie last week.
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 40, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 38 percent.

"With two weeks to go, Sen. Barack Obama is knocking on the door of a major political upset in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Obama is not only building on his own constituencies, but is taking away voters in Sen. Hillary Clinton's strongest areas - whites including white women, voters in the key swing Philadelphia suburbs and those who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

10:30 AM ET | 04- 8-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Penn Not Really Gone From Clinton Camp

When is a resignation not a resignation? Apparently when it's a "resignation" from the Clinton campaign.

On Sunday, Clinton campaign manager Maggie Williams sent out an e-mail saying that Mark Penn, chief strategist, had decided to step down from his post, which sounded very much like he was actually leaving the campaign. After his visit with the Colombian ambassador to discuss a free trade deal that Senator Clinton opposes, it appeared he was persona non grata with the Clintons.

Or maybe not.

In her e-mail, Williams noted that the campaign would still use the services of Penn's polling operation. And then Penn took part in yesterday's daily phone call with the media. He also joined other aides in a call with Clinton to begin to prepare for Saturday's presidential debate in Philadelphia. Marc Ambinder of theAtlantic.com notes that a senior campaign official told him that Penn "is still going to be very much involved."

Uh-huh. So he's stepped down, but he hasn't stepped away apparently. And he doesn't seem to be doing anything different now from what he was doing before ... he's just doing it without the title.

Meanwhile, more trouble with the Clinton-Colombian connection.

The Swamp reports that another top Clinton aide, communications director Howard Wolfson, "retains an equity interest in the Glover Park Group, a DC PR firm that 'signed a $40,000 per month contract with the government of Colombia in April of 2007 to promote the very agreement that Clinton now rails against on the presidential campaign trail.' His interest is valued at $500,000 to $1 million."

"Apparently, Clinton doesn't feel any deep discomfort with aides making money off of advocacy for a Colombian trade deal while, in Hillary's words today, 'violence against trade unionists continues and the perpetrators are not brought to justice, ' " writes Newsday's John Riley in The Swamp. "She isn't taking a stand against conflicts between her positions and her advisors' clients. There's no principle here."

8:45 AM ET | 04- 8-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

McCain Official: Senator Will Use Public Financing

Sen. John McCain raised $15 million in March -- his best fundraising total to date, but considerably behind his Democratic opponents. The Associated Press said the total was confirmed by two campaign officials speaking on condition of anonymity because the numbers haven't been made public.

And one of the campaign officials says McCain will accept public financing of his general election campaign -- that means he'll get $84 million from the Federal Elections Commission. The Boston Globe reported last week that the McCain campaign had returned more than $3 million in private donations that were made to finance the fall election.

"McCain donors are now being asked to supplement that public financing with donations to the Republican National Committee, with a goal of raising $120 million through a joint Victory Committee. The March fundraising and the decision to seek public financing in the fall are two separate tracks that highlight the superior fundraising by the Democratic candidates."

McCain can maximize the donor power of his contributors by setting up a joint fundraising committee with the national party.

"Donors who contribute to the Victory Committee could give up to $30,800. Of that, $28,500 could go to the party and $2,300 to McCain, provided they had not donated to McCain before. Previous McCain donors could still contribute the maximum $28,500 to the party."

7:00 PM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Battle Over Iraq War Spin Going Full Tilt

The battle over spinning the current situation in Iraq in order to gain the approval of the U.S. public is going full tilt as the Congress prepares to hear from Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

In a speech today to a Veterans of Foreign Wars headquarters audience at the National World War One Museum in Kansas City, Mo., Republican presidential candidate John McCain accused Democratic candidates Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama of "irresponsibility" and a "failure of leadership" over their desire to bring back U.S. troops from Iraq.

"There is no doubt about the basic reality in Iraq: we are no longer staring into the abyss of defeat, and we can now look ahead to the genuine prospect of success," said McCain.

Both Clinton and Obama were quick to respond to McCain's comment.

Continue reading "Battle Over Iraq War Spin Going Full Tilt" »

6:05 PM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

John McCain and the "Imperfect Public Servant" Tour

In the eight years that George W. Bush has been president, he has almost never admitted to making a mistake about anything.

That why, as the Washington Times reports, listening to Sen. John McCain recite past personal errors on his recent "Service in America" tour was so "startling frank." Almost daily McCain confessed to or apologized for past indiscretions from his youth and political career.

In fact, the Times said his series of speeches last week could have just as easily been called "the imperfect public servant" tour -- words that McCain actually used when talking to students at his former school, Episcopal High.

"In Pensacola, Fla., where he was stationed after graduating from the academy, he said he was a 'rather callow, conceited and [an] often stupid' fellow, with a self-centered idea about his military duty, in his early Navy days ... On Saturday, he told his home-state supporters he was too green when he first ran for Congress, and in his two terms in the House, he developed 'the reputation of an often confrontational partisan.' "

And then there was his confession on the 40th anniversary of the death of Martin Luther King that he had made a mistake in 1983 by not supporting a bill to create a national holiday in honor of King.

But there may be a more practical reason for his mea culpas - an effort to inoculate himself against Democratic attempts to develop "youthful character flaws into a narrative about his presidential campaign."

And as the Times notes, it may have paid off already. On Friday, one of Sen. Barack Obama's supporters, liberal radio talk-show host Ed Schultz, called McCain a "warmonger" while warming up a North Dakota Democratic Party gathering. McCain called on Obama to repudiate the remarks and Obama did so promptly.

Meanwhile, Schultz says as far as he's concerned, the label sticks.

"Labeling a candidate is not being disrespectful," Schultz told CNN host John Roberts. McCain's policies, Schultz said, "fit the description, there's no question about that. ... John McCain has no end game in Iraq. ... (He) is saber rattling with Iran. ... The man is a warmonger."

4:44 PM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Calls on Bush to Boycott Opening Ceremonies

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton today called on President Bush to boycott the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games in Beijing. Her call comes as demonstrations by pro-Tibetan activists and those opposed to China's human rights record disrupted the progress of the Olympic fame in Paris and protesters unfurled three huge Pro-Tibet banners on San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge.

Saying that Americans would support the rights of athletes to compete in the games, she still said Bush needed to miss the opening ceremonies.

"The violent clashes in Tibet and the failure of the Chinese government to use its full leverage with Sudan to stop the genocide in Darfur are opportunities for Presidential leadership. These events underscore why I believe the Bush administration has been wrong to downplay human rights in its policy towards China. At this time, and in light of recent events, I believe President Bush should not plan on attending the opening ceremonies in Beijing, absent major changes by the Chinese government."

Bush has said he has no plans to boycott the Olympics.

The Olympic torch comes to San Francisco on Wednesday, its only stop in the United States.

4:10 PM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

So Why Are The Media Still Making It A Contest?

NPR's On the Media asked an interesting question this past weekend.

Why are the media still reporting on the Democratic presidential contest like it is a contest?

By almost every measure, host Bob Garfield muses, it's practically impossible for Sen. Hillary Clinton to overcome Sen. Barack Obama's lead in the delegate count or in the popular vote. While Clinton can "technically" still win, it would take "something of a miracle."

Slate.com, one of the few media outlets to tackle the issue, has its own Hillary Deathwatch blog. After the events of last week -- Obama doubling Clinton's fundraising total for March and the comments by Clinton supporter Gov. Jon Corzine that he might switch his vote if Obama has the lead in the popular vote -- the site ranks Clinton's chance of winning the Democratic nomination at 9 percent.

Continue reading "So Why Are The Media Still Making It A Contest?" »

2:56 PM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Rice Says She Is Not Looking for VP Nod

Political pundits were abuzz yesterday when FOX News contributor and Republican strategist Dan Senor said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is actively seeking the job as Sen. John McCain's vice president running mate.

"Condi Rice has been actively, actually in recent weeks, campaigning for this," Senor said on ABC's "This Week."

But Fox News reports that a "well placed source" in Rice's office says that Senor's comments are wrong, and that Rice plans to return to California when the Bush administration is over.

"Don't buy the Condi talk. She is out (of) here -- to have her life back," the source said.

McCain said Sunday that he has seen no signs of any interest on Rice's part.

"I missed those signals," McCain told reporters on his campaign plane. "I think she's a great American, I think there's very little that I can say that isn't anything but the utmost praise for a great American citizen, who served as a role model to so many millions of people in this country and around the world."

But McCain also told reporters that Rice bears some of the responsibility for what he described as management failure in Iraq.

"I think that pursuing the failed strategy and all who were involved in it bear some responsibility," he said. "Of course I have put responsibility on the president, [former Secretary of Defense Donald] Rumsfeld, as well as Condoleezza Rice and to a lesser degree [Former Secretary of State Colin] Powell."

12:20 PM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

New Report On Iraq Offers Grim Outlook

U.S. forces might not be in Iraq a hundred years from, as Sen. John McCain remarked recently when he tried to explain why he thought that the U.S. would need to be in Iraq for a long time. But according to a new report, the U.S. can probably count on being in Iraq for as long as a decade before the political situation is stable enough to dramatically reduce U.S troop deployments.

And as the Washington Post reports the study, which was prepared by advisers to the Iraq Study group, says that political progress is "so slow, halting and superficial" and political fragmentation "so pronounced" that the United States is no closer to being able to leave Iraq than it was a year ago.

The paper was authored for the U.S. Institute of Peace by Daniel Serwer, the organization's vice president, and Sam Parker, a program officer. It comes just before U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, testify before Congress.

"Iraq After the Surge: Options and Questions" says the situation in Iraq is improved but still fragile.

Continue reading "New Report On Iraq Offers Grim Outlook" »

11:00 AM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Clinton's Path Is Tough With or Without Penn

As NPR's Mara Liasson puts it, Mark Penn has been "a walking, talking political conflict of interest" for some time. His job as chief executive of Burson-Marsteller Worldwide always offered lots of potential conflicts with his other position - as the chief strategist for Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Then last week, that potential conflict became a real one when Penn went to plot strategy with the Colombian ambassador about a bilateral free trade agreement with the U.S. The Colombian government had hired Burson-Marsteller to help get the deal through the Congress.

Only one problem - Clinton is opposed to the deal.

When news of the meeting broke, Penn said it was "an error in judgment that would not be repeated." That angered the Colombians and they dumped their contract with his firm.

Liasson notes that many people believed it was only a matter of time until this happened. It's not the first time that Penn's other job has caused a problem for Clinton. His firm, for instance, represents the controversial security firm Blackwater. Other clients include the government of Indonesia and The Philippines.

When top lobbyists come to work for a politicians, it's always a danger. For instance, President Bush made his top strategist Karl Rove drop all his other clients in 2000 before he could work for him.

Continue reading "Clinton's Path Is Tough With or Without Penn" »

9:10 AM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

In N. Carolina, Trustworthiness Trumps Experience

Trustworthiness -- that's what voters in North Carolina value the most in a candidate (more than experience), according to a new poll by several media outlets in the state. That's good new for Sen. Barack Obama, as he easily outpolls Sen. Hillary Clinton on the issue, 48 percent to 25 percent.

But both Democrats rank behind Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain. Fifty-four percent of those surveyed said that they trust McCain the most. He also scored high marks on his ability to keep the country safe

The Raleigh News and Observer, which conducted the survey of 803 likely voters along with The Charlotte Observer, WNCN-TV in Raleigh and WCNC-TV in Charlotte, found that nine out of ten voters said trustworthiness would be the factor that determined their vote.

Continue reading "In N. Carolina, Trustworthiness Trumps Experience" »

8:10 AM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Mark Penn Leaves Clinton Campaign

Mark Penn, Sen. Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, has decided to leave her campaign. His decision comes a week after he met with the Colombian ambassador to the U.S. to talk about a bilateral free trade agreement.

Sen. Clinton is opposed to the agreement.

Penn said he met the ambassador not as part of the Clinton campaign but as chief executive of Burson-Marsteller Worldwide, an international communications and lobbying firm, which had been hired by the Colombian government to help the agreement get congressional approval. After news of the meeting broke, Penn called it an "error in judgment." That angered the Colombians, who announced they were deeply offended by Penn's remarks and that they canceling their contract with Burson-Marsteller

In a terse e-mail statement last night, campaign manager Maggie Williams said Penn was leaving.

"After the events of the last few days, Mark Penn has asked to give up his role as Chief Strategist of the Clinton Campaign; Mark, and Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, Inc. will continue to provide polling and advice to the campaign.

"Geoff Garin and Howard Wolfson will coordinate the campaign's strategic message team going forward."

Penn had been a highly controversial figure in the campaign, and was rumored to have few allies. After the early disaster for Clinton im Iowa, many wanted him removed. But her comeback in New Hampshire helped him retain his position. Many reporters, pundits and bloggers, however, have commented since then that Penn was not liked by many in the campaign. At one point, he and fellow top Clinton adviser Harold Ickles seemed to engage in a round of finger pointing over Clinton's problems.

5:45 AM ET | 04- 7-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Barr Considers Run For Libertarian Party

Former GOP Rep. Bob Barr, well known for his role for as one of the House Republican managers who oversaw President Clinton's impeachment proceedings, has launched a presidential exploratory committee for a possible run for the Libertarian Party.

Barr, who lost his district in 2002, was one of the first House members to call for Clinton's impeachment. Since his loss, Barr has been practicing law and has served on the boards of the National Rifle Association and the American Conservative Union.

"America today faces a grave moral and leadership crisis, and those of us who care about our country's future can no longer sit on the sidelines and remain neutral," Barr told activists at the Heartland Libertarian Conference in Kansas City, Missouri.

Barr has been an outspoken opponent of the administration's handling of the war in Iraq.

If Barr does run, The Associated Press reports that he'll have to take on former Democrat Mike Gravel, who after making a bid for that party's presidential nomination announced he'll go after the Libertarian slot. There are also five lesser known candidates.

If Barr does run as the Libertarian candidate, he could prove to be a thorn in the side of Republican Senator John McCain. Barr is well-known by conservatives, and his role in the Clinton impeachment and his work with the NRA and the ACU could give conservatives who are not happy about McCain another option on election day.

8:00 AM ET | 04- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Bill Clinton Earned $15 million from Burkle Firm

Once you put aside book deals and speeches, another major source of income for the Clintons has been the$15.4 million the former president earned from billionaire Ron Burkle's Yucaipa Cos. investment firm since 2003, according to tax documents released by Sen. Hillary Clinton Friday.

Bloomberg reports that the money represents 20 percent of the "approximately $75 million Bill Clinton earned during the same period, according to the documents. That may raise new questions about what services he performed for Los Angeles-based Yucaipa, whose investors include the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid al- Maktoum."

"Most people who make that much money work for it,'" said Yale University tax law professor Michael Graetz, a former Treasury Department official in President George H.W. Bush's administration. "What are they being paid for, and if it's the Sheikh of Dubai paying the husband of somebody who might be the next president of the United States, what do they think they're paying for?"

A spokesman for President Clinton said in an e-mailed statement that Clinton "provides his best advice on potential investments, advocates generally on behalf of the funds, and seeks to create opportunities for investors to consider investing in the fund."

Thomas Edsall at the Huffington Post writes "Burkle and Yucaipa have been involved in a number of controversies that have reportedly prompted concerns in Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign that her bid might be damaged by resulting adverse publicity."

The New York Times reports that Clinton representatives are saying that Clinton will end his work with the firm if his wife wins the presidency, "to avoid possible ethical conflicts."

4:02 PM ET | 04- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

MCain Finally Says Yes to Secret Service

Sen. John McCain will finally agree to have a Secret Service detail. He hasn't had one up until now, and he's not too happy that he had to say 'yes' to the idea. But McCain's secret - which many members of the press knew about but did not report on because of the possible danger to the Senator -- was blown Friday when Secret Service director Mark Sullivan "revealed" to members of Congress that McCain did not have a detail. McCain advisers were mad as hell at Sullivan because they felt the issue should have been dealt with behind closed doors.

Anyone who watched McCain at the Lorraine Motel in Memphis yesterday saw him plunge into the crowd after his speech marking the 40th anniversary of the murder of Martin Luther King. Media members who travel with him say that he loves working the crowds, and he'll need to pull back on that with a Secret Service detail following him around. Marc Ambinder of theAtlantic.com says that the McCain-Secret Service meeting this week will be "intense."

Maybe Sullivan will have a chance to see the legendary McCain temper at work.

10:45 AM ET | 04- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Clintons Release Tax Returns 2000-2007

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and former President Clinton reported $20.4 million in income for 2007 and more than $109 million since 2000 as they gave the public the most detailed look at their finances in eight years. The Associated Press reports that almost half of the couples' income came from his speeches.

Here is the text of their release from their campaign (More information here):
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Today Senator Hillary Clinton and President Bill Clinton are releasing their tax returns for the years 2000 through 2006, and are providing information regarding their 2007 taxes as well.

The Clintons have now made public thirty years of tax returns, a record matched by few people in public service. None of Hillary Clinton's presidential opponents have revealed anything close to this amount of personal financial information.

What the Clintons' tax returns show is that they paid more than $33,000,000 in federal taxes and donated more than $10,000,000 to charities over the past eight years. They paid taxes and made charitable contributions at a higher rate than taxpayers at their income level.

TAXES PAID: $33,783,507

The Clintons paid $33,783,507 in federal taxes - 31% of their adjusted gross income. According to the most recent data available from the IRS, in 2005 taxpayers earning $10,000,000 or more paid on average 20.8% of their adjusted gross income in taxes.

CHARITABLE CONTRIBUTIONS: $10,256,741

The Clintons donated $10,256,741 to charity - 9.5% of their adjusted gross income. According to the most recent data available from the IRS, in 2005 taxpayers earning $10,000,000 or more contributed 3.1% of their adjusted gross income in cash contributions to charity. Information about the Clinton Family Foundation, including a list of charities to which the Clintons contributed through the Foundation, is available online in the Foundation's publicly available tax returns (www.foundationcenter.org).

AFTER TAX EARNINGS: $57,157,297

CUMULATIVE TOTAL(GROSS) INCOME: $109,175,175

Including, among other items:

* Senator Clinton's Senate Salary: $1,051,606
* President Clinton's Presidential Pension: $1,217,250
* Senator Clinton's Book Income: $10,457,083
* President Clinton's Book Income: $29,580,525
* President Clinton's Speech Income: $51,855,599

SENATOR CLINTON'S BOOK INCOME: $10,457,083

Senator Clinton's book income is comprised of earnings for Living History ($10,267,895), including an $8,000,000 advance, and It Takes a Village ($189,188). The earnings for It Takes a Village were donated to charity. Since the release of It Takes a Village in 1996, Senator Clinton has donated over $1,100,000 to charity.

PRESIDENT CLINTON'S BOOK INCOME: $29,580,525

President Clinton's book income is comprised of earnings for My Life ($23,280,525), including a $15,000,000 advance, and Giving ($6,300,000). The President donated $1,000,000 of his income from Giving in 2007 to charity.

PRESIDENT CLINTON'S SPEECH INCOME: $51,855,599

NOTE: The figures in this summary include 2007 estimates.
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Marc Ambinder of theAtlantic.com says the Clintons could not have picked a better day to release these figures:

(a) Clinton's traveling press corps is exhausted by their travel schedule

(b) Mark Penn's gaffe [about Colombia] goes away temporarily

(c) It's a Friday

(d) lots of MLK-related political news

(e) it's well before Pennsylvania, as opposed to just days before Pennsylvania.

No doubt we'll have a response from Obama soon.

5:10 PM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

How to Get To 270 Big Question for Superdelegates

Speculation on how to get 270 Electoral College votes has become one of the most important questions in determining who superdelegates might support. The Clinton campaign says "Back Clinton because she can win Ohio and Pennsylvania." Obama people counter with "Yes, but we can take Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa."

Earlier this week, NBC's First Read offered its version, with scenarios for Clinton, Obama and McCain.

When pollster Peter Brown from Quinnipiac University was here this week, The News Blog asked him about the "270" road map. He offered some interesting options.

Last election, President Bush won with 286 electoral votes. Ohio, with 20 its votes, was the key to his victory. It's one of the big three -- Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Since 1960 every candidate has needed to win two out of three of these states to win the presidency. Bush won Ohio and Florida, Sen. John Kerry won Pennsylvania.

But let's say all the states stay the same color, Brown mused, but the Democrats win Ohio. That would leave the Democrats with 272 votes, and McCain with 266 votes. The other state the GOP could use to put them over the top is Wisconsin - it was very close last election and there were allegations of voter fraud on election day. If it switched, McCain can win with 276 to 262.

But Brown also says the state that was red last election most likely to go blue this election is Iowa, with seven electoral votes. If Iowa switches, its 269 to 269 - a tie! Hello Democratically controlled House.

Oh, the combinations!

Here is Project Vote Smart's list of states and electoral votes. How do you see the vote breaking down? Could Obama take Virginia and New Mexico? Could McCain take Michigan or Wisconsin? What VP candidates could help determine the map?

The clock is ticking. Get out your pen and paper and start calculating ...

4:47 PM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Superdelegate Numbers Not Going Clinton's Way

In an interview with a Nigerian newspaper, former President (and superdelegate) Jimmy Carter was asked about who he would support.

"My children and their spouses are pro-Obama. My grandchildren are also pro-Obama," Carter told the paper. "As a superdelegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for, but I leave you to make that guess."

The fact that Carter may not be supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton should not come as a complete surprise -- relations between Carter and the Clintons have never been particularly friendly -- but it's an illustration of how Clinton's lead among superdelegates has been slowly ebbing away. As the Obama campaign is fond of pointing out, 65 superdelegates have announced their support for Obama while less than ten have done so for Clinton since Super Tuesday.

In December, according to an Associated Press tally, Clinton led Obama by 106 superdelegates. On Thursday, it was down to 30.

Continue reading "Superdelegate Numbers Not Going Clinton's Way" »

2:28 PM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

McCain Returns $3 Million in Checks for General Election

In another sign that Sen. John McCain is moving towards public financing of his presidential bid, his campaign has returned $3 million in checks to contributors who had donated money for the general election in the fall.

The Boston Globe reports that the McCain campaign is now asking contributors "to write new checks to a special fund created to help the Arizona senator pay legal and accounting expenses related to compliance with the public funding system."

"The move is largely procedural, and McCain's campaign said yesterday that it has not yet decided whether to accept public funding or to raise money on its own for the November presidential election. But the decision to return checks - which was made as the Democratic candidates announced raising $60 million combined in March, nearly as much as McCain had raised for the entire campaign through February - indicates that McCain is laying the groundwork for doing so."

"Senator McCain has made it clear that he expects to participate in the general election public financing system, and he hopes the Democratic nominee will do so as well," Brian Rogers, McCain spokesman, said in a statement. "The campaign reserves the right to change course, but these developments reflect our current plans."

This year, a candidate who accepts the terms would be limited to about $84 million in spending.

But Peter Overby, NPR's expert on campaign finances, tells the News Blog that McCain faces a problem with the Federal Election Commission. The way public financing works is that the candidate will receive that $84 million check from the FEC on the last day of the candidate's convention. But before than happens, it must be voted on and approved by the FEC board. And right now, there are not enough members for a quorum.

1:30 PM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

McCain: "I Was Wrong to Oppose King Holiday"

In a speech today at the Lorraine Motel in Memphis (now the National Civil Rights Museum), where Dr. Martin Luther King was killed 40 years ago today, Sen. John McCain said he made a mistake in 1983 when he voted against the bill that designated the third Monday of every January as a federal holiday in honor of King.

McCain had a long history of opposition to the idea of an MLK holiday. When then-Arizona Governor Evan Mecham rescinded the holiday in 1987, McCain supported that move. But by 2000 he had changed his position. During an appearance on MSNBC's Hardball that year, he talked about his change of heart.

"I believe that Barry Goldwater [McCain's political hero], to start with, regretted his vote on the 1964 Civil Rights Act," he said. "I think that Barry grew, like all of us grow and evolve. In 1983, when I was brand-new in the Congress, I voted against the recognition of Dr. Martin Luther King. That was a mistake, OK? And later I had the chance to...help fight for...the recognition of Dr. Martin Luther King as a holiday in my state."

In pouring rain today, McCain talked glowingly of King's legacy. He said King's message of equality was as important in places like Iraq and Iran as it was in the United States. When he came to the section of his speech where he admitted making a mistake on the holiday, some in the crowd booed. But many others in the largely African-America crowd shouted out "We forgive you."

"Sometimes the most radical thing is to be confronted with our own standards -- to be asked simply that we live up to the principles we profess," Mccain said. "Even in this most idealistic of nations, we do not always take kindly to being reminded of what more we can do, or how much better we can be, or who else can be included in the promise of America. We can be slow as well to give greatness its due, a mistake I made myself long ago when I voted against a federal holiday in memory of Dr. King. I was wrong and eventually realized that, in time to give full support for a state holiday in Arizona. We can all be a little late sometimes in doing the right thing, and Dr. King understood this about his fellow Americans. But he knew as well that in the long term, confidence in the reasonability and good heart of America is always well placed. And always, that was his method in word and action -- to remind us of who we are and what we believe. His arguments were unanswerable and they were familiar, the case always resting on the writings of the Founders, the teachings of the prophets, and the Word of the Lord."

After his speech, McCain shook hands with people in the crowd for several minutes.

12:30 PM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

New Clinton Fundraiser Lets Donors Decide

Has it been a lifelong dream to buy a lawn sign for your favorite candidate's campaign? Or have you always been a bumper sticker kind of person? Perhaps something less grandiose -- door hangers?

Well, now you can live the dream. The Clinton campaign has announced a new fundraiser in Pennsylvania that will allow donors to decide just where their money will go.

In an e-mail to the media, the Clinton campaign says that "By visiting www.hillaryclinton.com, supporters can choose from six different areas to support the campaign: TV airtime; online ads; radio spots; signs; vans; and door hangers. Supporters can mix and match how much they want to put towards each item and then 'check out' like an online wedding registry."

Hmm. Married to the campaign apparently.

But there is a method in the Clinton campaign's whimsy. Last month, of the $20 million the campaign raised, $15 million of that came from online. Allowing donors to choose might help the campaign put more money into the Pennsylvania primary at a time when Sen. Barack Obama looks to be closely the once large gap between him and Clinton.

11:49 AM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Adviser Met With Colombian Free Trade Officials

Mark Penn, the chief strategist for Sen. Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, met Monday with Colombia's ambassador to the U.S. to discuss a bilateral free-trade agreement. The Wall Street Journal reports that Penn "wasn't there in his campaign role, but in his separate job as chief executive of Burson-Marsteller Worldwide, an international communications and lobbying firm."

Sen. Clinton has repeatedly said she is against the deal with Colombia. But Penn's company has been hired by the Colombian government to promote congressional approval of the free-trade agreement, according to documents filed with the Justice Department.

A spokesman for Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe said the ambassador met with Mr. Penn to discuss the bilateral agenda. "There have also been meetings with the advisers to the campaigns of Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain," he said. "It's the embassy's job to explain Colombia's reality."

The spokesman said he didn't know if Mr. Penn was representing Sen. Clinton or Burson-Marsteller, which signed a $300,000, one-year contract with the Colombian Embassy in March 2007 to work on behalf of the trade deal and anti-drug-trafficking initiatives, according to the Justice Department filings.

A McCain spokesman said a team of policy advisers had met with the ambassadors of 20 Latin American countries recently. An Obama spokesman and the Colombian Embassy spokeswoman both said the Colombian ambassador had never met with an Obama representative.

If anything, the situation shows just how closely intertwined the campaigns are with top lobbyists. The Journal reports that Penn has raised eyebrows because the contract with the Colombian government is just one example of his firm advising clients on causes that Clinton opposes.
-----

UPDATE: Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com has an interesting update on the story;

"I've asked several Clinton aides and advisers for their reaction. Some declined to comment. Others responded with pejoratives, but since I don't print anonymous pejoratives as a policy, I will refrain from sharing them.

"It's true that other campaigns have consultants with day jobs. The closest analogy is that of Charlie Black, a senior McCain strategist who resigned from his lobbying/PR firm in order to devote his attention full-time to McCain. (The irony: Black's firm falls under the umbrella of Penn at Burson Marsteller.)

"One of the toughest tasks for a political journalist these days is to try and find someone in Clinton world who is willing to defend Mr. Penn or his sense of political optics."
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ANOTHER UPDATE: Sometimes you can win for losing. TalkingPointsMemo reports that the government of Colombia has fired Penn's firm. apparently it didn't take to Penn calling the meeting with the ambassador "an error in judgment."

"The Colombian government considers this a lack of respect to Colombians, and finds this response unacceptable," according to a statement.

11:24 AM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

The Days of U.S. Cowboy Diplomacy Are Over

The three presidential candidates may disagree about how to best fight the war in Iraq, but they all agree that the U.S. can't act as it pleases in the world any more. This might be a policy position expected from Democrats like Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama. But Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain has gone out of his way -- in newspaper opinion pieces and in major speeches -- to point out that the U.S. must consult with its allies more often, and listen to what they actually have to say about a crisis before charging in head first.

In other word, as editor David Paul Kuhn said on the Bryant Park Project this morning, the days of cowboy diplomacy are over. For instance, Kuhn points to McCain saying President Bush hasn't taken the deterioration of the American image abroad seriously enough, a statement that basically separated himself from Bush.

In fact, the U.S.'s image abroad has improved according to a new BBC-Global Scan-Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) poll. It's still quite negative (only a 32 percent approval rating) but it's a bit better in 11 of the 23 countries polled last year. The major reason for the improvement: the approaching end of the Bush administration.

"It may be that as the US approaches a new presidential election, views of the US are being mitigated by hope that a new administration will move away from the foreign policies that have been so unpopular in the world," according to Steven Kull at PIPA.

But what do you think? Have the Bush administration's foreign policies so damaged our image abroad that it will take many years, according to some critics, to repair? Or has the White House used a strategy that was needed after events like 9/11, where America needed to act to protect itself, so what if a few eggs got broken in the process?

10:15 AM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Raises $20 Million, Half of Obama's Total

Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign raised $20 million in March. That's $15 million less than in February, but still her second-best fund raising total. Sen. Barack Obama has raised a total of $131 million so far this election cycle, while Clinton has brought in $70 million. The difference in money can be seen in spending on TV ads. Earlier this week Clinton advisers admitted that Obama would probably outspend Clinton 2-1 on TV ads in Pennsylvania over the next two and a half weeks.

Meanwhile, Clinton also accepted an invitation from CBS to debate Obama in North Carolina before that state's primary. No date has been set for the debate yet.

And a batch of new polls has mixed news for both candidates. A CBS/New York Times poll shows Obama leading Clinton nationally among Democrats 46-43 percent (very similar to what the Gallup Daily Tracking poll has shown). They both lead Sen. John McCain in a possible fall match up.

The Republican polling firm Strategic Vision has Clinton leading Obama in Pennsylvania 49% to 41% in what looks to be a tighter race than first imagined. (Another poll by the same company in early March showed her with an 18-point lead.) And Clinton leads Obama 46% to 43% in an Indiana poll commissioned by WSBT-TV, The South Bend Tribune, WISH-TV in Indianapolis and WANE-TV in Fort Wayne.

A couple of interesting notes about the Indiana poll. Obama has a huge lead among younger voters, while Clinton enjoys the same advantage among those 60 and older. But Clinton holds a seven-point lead over Obama among voters age 30 to 44, and a six-point lead with voters age 45 to 59. Obama, however, has an enormous lead among black voters 81 percent to 16 percent, which is what is making the race basically a tie.

8:35 AM ET | 04- 4-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

McCain Uses Media Attention to Talk About His Story

Dan Schnur, who now teaches political communication at U.C. Berkeley, was the communication director for Sen. John McCain's presidential run seven years ago, thinks his old boss is one lucky guy.

"He's been given a very rare opportunity in presidential politics, he's been given a free run, a window of opportunity to do whatever he wants," he told Alex Chadwick on Day to Day.

Schnur says that normally when a candidate talks about his biography -- as Senator McCain has been doing all week -- it's not newsworthy. The Media wants to hear about policy differences.

The media has been very focused on the Clinton-Obama battle, Schnur adds, but they still feel its important to give McCain coverage. So McCain is using the attention to focus on what he wants, and so his biography is getting a lot more coverage than normal. Schnur says he is using it not so much to introduce himself to people, but to remind voters "about what they like about him."

Schnur also shared a tip about how to read what his old boss says.

"He is a very honest man, but he has a verbal habit that can throw people off. When he insults you, that means he likes you. When he refers to you as 'my friend' that means he's not sure about you. When he alls you 'my dear friend,' he doesn't like you. The more 'dear, dear, dear friends' he uses, the sooner you need to get out of town."

7:23 PM ET | 04- 3-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

One-Stop Shopping For Lobbying Superdelegates

Are you a Democrat? Are you worried about how the current, often bitter battle between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama will affect the party? Are you thinking about the role that will be played by superdelegates? Do you want to reach out to one? How about all of them? How about getting them to either endorse a candidate or switch their support?

Boy, do we have a website for you ...LobbyDelegates.com.

The site is the work of the StateDemocracy Foundation, a tax-exempt non-profit organization that was established to allow citizens to easily contact their lawmakers. In their e-mailed press release the foundation says it was "established using over $300,000 in contributions from V-Empower, Inc. -- through its CEO, Shukoor Ahmed, of Bowie, Maryland, who founded the technology firm in 1999."

LobbyDelegates is your one-stop shopping place for influencing superdelegates ... so to speak. You can lobby delegates to support a candidate, or to keep supporting a delegate, or to switch their support. It's not free -- you can send a fax to everyone you want to reach for a $10 donation, or send as many e-mails as you like for a $5 donation, or if you're low on cash with lots of time, print out your own letter to send with your own stamp.

And it seems that some of the superdelegates wouldn't mind hearing what you have to say. For instance, the Chapel Hill (N.C.) News carried a response from superdelegate David Parker to an open letter to the group written by the paper's columnist, D.G. Martin. He sums up pretty well what many superdelegates are thinking about (with some regional concerns thrown in, but all the superdelegates will have similar issues):

"Your letter correctly categorizes virtually all of the pleas and viewpoints that I have heard: (a) friendships, (b) popular votes, (c) coattails, (d) electability, and (e) qualification. The pleas are consistent: folks want a change from these seven years of wandering in W's wilderness. But nerves are fraying, supporters are misspeaking, and the Press is searching for stories to predict the outcome. So, here we are. A few Unpledged Democrats trying to make the best decision.

"For what it's worth, this is what I think about each category:

"Qualification. They are both well-qualified, brilliant, solid, credible, well-intended natural leaders who are as incorruptible as folks can be. They will both strive to educate our children, feed the hungry, heal the sick and wounded, restore our economy, lead the world by our country's example, and remain honorable throughout. They will be different, to be sure, but they are both what we need.

"Electability. Either candidate's supporters, faced with the potential election of a GOP candidate who does not know squat about the economy and will keep us in Iraq until 2100, will vote for the Democratic nominee. But it will be tight. Very tight. Incredibly tight. If your readers stay home, either will lose. If their friends stay home, either will lose. Lose? Lose.

"Coattails. All of a President's good ideas will stagnate without enough U.S. senators to carry cloture. North Carolina is an example: We will elect a U.S. senator in 2008. Senator Dole is brilliant, articulate and a tough campaigner, but she is incredibly and undeniably wrong on virtually every issue of importance to our people. Her husband will not vote for her and neither should any of your readers. Are coattails important? Absolutely.

"Vote of the People. Which people? If NC were to go 60 percent for Obama, there is a good argument for following suit -- but what about the 40 percent that voted for Hillary: shouldn't their vote impact the Unpledged Delegate too? We don't have winner-take-all in the primaries -- why should we for the Unpledged Delegates?"

It seems the superdelegates need the wisdom of Solomon ... but who will get the "baby"?

3:48 PM ET | 04- 3-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Obama Raised $40 million in March

Sen. Barack Obama became the first of the three remaining presidential candidates to release their financial figures for March. The campaign said it had raised $40 million from 440,000 donors. That's $15 million less than February, but as NPR's Peter Overby describes it, it is still an astonishing figure.

Here are the figures from the campaign:

Total Raised in March: More than $40 million
Contributors in March: More than 442,000
First-Time Contributors in March: More than 218,000
Average Contribution: $96
Total Contributors to Date: More than 1,276,000

Peter also says that both the Clinton campaign and the McCain campaign are expected to raise considerably less. The Clinton campaign has been strapped for cash, raising question about another possible personal loan from Clinton to her campaign.

In a conference call with Clinton advisers this morning, communications director Howard Wolfson did not release Clinton's figures for March, but did say that Obama had raised more money. Wolfson, however, assured reporters that the campaign has enough resources to campaign in the upcoming primaries.

11:43 AM ET | 04- 3-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Corzine Might Switch if Obama Wins Popular Vote

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine said in an interview earlier this morning that he would consider switching his superdelegate vote from Sen. Hillary Clinton to Sen. Barack Obama if Obama has the lead in the popular vote after the primary season is over.

In an interview on CNBC's Squawk Box, Corzine said that he reserved the right to change his vote if he felt it was necessary. But he stopped short of saying that he would absolutely make such a move if Obama had the lead. He did say that he thinks Clinton will lead in the popular vote after the primary season is over.

Sen. Maria Cantwell, another Clinton supporter, has made a similar statement.

Corzine also said that Clinton needed "a big win" in Pennsylvania. "You have to see a real cut into this popular vote, and I think she's going to get it."

When asked about Corzine's statement during a conference call a short while ago with senior Clinton advisers, communications director Howard Wolfson said that "a lot of folks" were going to have comments about the process over the next few weeks.

"Let's see how the process works out," he added. "Then you can ask us that question. We think that we will be able to make the case for Sen. Clinton that she is the best candidate to be commander-in-chief and the best steward of the economy."

10:54 AM ET | 04- 3-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Clinton Campaign Talking About Wright to Superdelegates

When Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown talked to the News Blog yesterday, he mentioned the problems that Sen. Barack Obama is having with white voters in several key states. Brown said that 20 percent of white Democratic voters said they would vote for Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain if Obama is the Democratic candidate. Only 10 percent would switch if it's Clinton.

In fact, the Clinton campaign seems to be admitting it is using race as an issue, at least with superdelegates. In an interview with Greg Sargent from Talking Point Memo on Tuesday, senior Clinton adviser Harold Ickes admitted that the "Reverend Jeremiah Wright is a key topic in discussions with uncommitted super-delegates over whether Obama is electable in a general election."

"In a reference to Wright's controversial views, Ickes continued: 'Nobody thinks that Barack Obama harbors those thoughts. But that's not the issue. The issue is what Republicans [will do with them]...I think they're going to give him a very tough time.'

"Asked whether he was specifically bringing up Wright to super-delegates, Ickes said: "I've said what I've said...I tell people that they need to look at what they think Republicans may use against him. Wright comes up in the conversations.' "

9:57 AM ET | 04- 3-2008 | permalink | comments (16) | e-mail post

 

Erie Catholic Bishop Protests Clinton Appearence

Pennsylvania is Catholic country. And Catholics have been among the strongest supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. But earlier this week, Clinton found herself at odds with the Catholic bishop of Erie.

Bishop Donald W. Trautman announced that he has decided to boycott a Catholic college's graduation ceremony because it allowed Clinton, an abortion rights supporter, to speak at the college Tuesday night. The Catholic News Agency reports that "the bishop explained that he is disappointed in the Catholic school [Mercyhurst College] for not reflecting on the Roman Catholic Church's stance on abortion."

The agency also reports that Thomas Gamble, the president of the college, "allowed the April 1 Clinton appearance despite the teaching of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, which specifically forbids pro-abortion politicians from such appearances."

A press release from the college stated, "Mercyhurst has a longstanding policy of not supporting or opposing any particular candidate for political office, in part to protect its nonprofit status. However, realizing that political discourse is a valuable educational tool, Mercyhurst has in the past made its campus available to candidates to share their views, when and where possible and upon formal request."

Gamble had invited all the candidates to speech at the college at the request of the student government.

GoErie.com reports that the bishop's cautions didn't seem to affect the students or others in the Erie area. More than 3000 people crowded into the 2500 seat campus auditorium Tuesday night. Clinton's speech focused on health care

8:30 AM ET | 04- 3-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Will Clinton Need to Loan Her Campaign More Money?

Presidential campaigns costs a lot of money. The length of the campaign doesn't matter. The brief presidential bid by former Ohio Senator John Glenn in 1984 cost millions of dollars. The Federal Election Commission finally closed the books on that bid 22 years later, in 2006. And the campaign still owed creditors two and a half million dollars.

NPR's Peter Overby reports that Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign is only now paying off some of her campaign debts from Iowa. Clinton was supposed to be the fund raising juggernaut of the campaign. She's doing well, but she still had to lend her campaign $5 million of her own money in January to help keep it afloat. Meanwhile her main rival, Sen. Barack Obama, has been setting fund raising records.

During a conference call this afternoon, senior Clinton advisers said Obama had outspent them 4-1 so far in Pennsylvania and would probably outspend them 2-1 the next three weeks. They point out that Obama outspend her in Ohio and Texas, and Clinton still won the primaries there (although it increasingly looks like Obama will win the most delegates in Texas).

The Clinton campaign has not aired ads in either Indiana or North Carolina yet.

But recent polls have shown that Obama is closing the once large gap in Pennsylvania. Clinton may need to spend more on advertising if things get closer. That's why Randall Adkins, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska in Omaha expects that Clinton will make another loan that will enable her to "go all out" in Pennsylvania.

"This is perfect timing for her to be able to win Pennsylvania and to keep on campaigning," said Adkins. "If she were having to compete on April 22nd in five other states, I think she would be very hard pressed to continue to campaign."

The Clinton campaign was carrying eight and a half million dollars in debt at the end of February, far more than Obama and even Sen. John McCain

6:18 PM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Launches New Ringing Phone Ad on Economy

That darn phone is ringing at 3 a.m. again. On this time it isn't Gen. David Petraeus from Iraq -- it's Ben Bernanke from the Fed, sleepless over home foreclosures.

In a new ad launched today, (that uses a lot of the same footage from her 3 a.m. security ad) Clinton argues that she's best prepared to deal with the current financial crisis in the United States. But it isn't Sen. Barack Obama who is targeted by the ad -- it's Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain.

Here's the ad:

It's an interesting ad, considering that the president doesn't really control the economy in a way that could be handled at 3 in the morning.

In a conference with senior Clinton advisers this afternoon to discuss the ad, a reporter asked just what specific experience does Clinton have to deal with a crisis of this kind?

Chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn called a it a fair question, but said the answer is broader than what was being suggested. He said that nothing can really prepare you for being president until you are actually in the job, but that you want a person in that position with a lifetime of experience that they can bring to the situation.

When pressed further for an example, Communications Director Howard Wolfson pointed to the resources that Sen. Clinton, along with many others, was able to help bring to New York after the 9/11 attacks

4:40 PM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Quinnipiac Poll Numbers A Boost for Clinton

For almost 50 years, if you want to get elected president of the United States, you needed to win two of three states: Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Only John Kennedy bucked the tide -- his opponent, Richard Nixon won Ohio and Florida.

So if you're a Sen. Hillary Clinton supporter, you'll be pleased about a poll released today by Quinnipiac University. It shows that in a match up with Sen. John McCain, Clinton wins all three states over McCain, and does much better than Sen. Barack Obama in all three.

Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute talked with Ken Rudin and Neil Conan on Talk of the Nation today and with the News Blog.

In Florida, Clinton leads McCain by two points, 44% to 42%. But McCain leads Obama 46% to 37%. In Ohio, Clinton has a 48% to 39 % lead over McCain, while Obama leads McCain by one point, 43% to 42%. In Pennsylvania, Clinton tops McCain 48% to 40 % while Obama leads him 43% to 39%

In Florida, Brown says, the difference is white voters. The pollsters also found that 20% of white Democrats over all said they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee, as opposed to 10% who will switch if Clinton runs for the Democrats.

In the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, in a survey of 1549 likely Democratic voters, Quinnipiac found that Clinton leads Obama 49% to 40%. Obama has narrowed Clinton's lead, but Brown says the question now is can he "seal the deal."

"Is Pennsylvania going to be like Ohio or New Jersey, where Obama cut Clinton's lead down, but wasn't able to close that final gap? Or will it be like South Carolina or Wisconsin where he overcame huge Clinton leads to win? That's what the next three weeks will tell us."

3:54 PM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

McCain Starts His Search for a Vice President

GOP White House hopeful John McCain says he's begun to assemble a list of possible Vice Presidential candidates and hopes to name a running mate before the party convention in September. McCain says he's aware that his choice of a running mate is even more important than usual, given his age. The Arizona Senator will be 72 on the day the next president is sworn in.

He hasn't named any likely candidates for the post. But McCain told the Imus in the Morning radio program he is happy with the support he's received from the former GOP candidates, now that he's the party's presumptive nominee.

"We've done a pretty good job of uniting the party. Now we've got to reenergize the party. But I'm happy with the way the party has come together."

Ken Rudin provides a list of McCain's possible picks in this week's Political Junkie column:

Miss. Gov. Haley Barbour
Former Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush
Fla. Gov. Charlie Crist
Sen. Lindsey Graham of S.C.
Former Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-D) of Conn.
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin
Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Former Rep. Rob Portman of Ohio
Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney
S.C. Gov. Mark Sanford
Sen. John Thune of S.D.

McCain is campaigning this week at some of his old stomping grounds, including the Naval Academy and his old Navy flight school in Pensacola.

-- Scott Horsley

3:05 PM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Dean Says He is Committed to Getting Florida Seated

Another day, another new wrinkle in the Florida, Michigan delegate saga.

In today's episode:

The Tallahassee Democrat reports that Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean pledged today that Florida's delegation will be seated this summer at the national convention. And (in an update to an earlier posting on the blog) there will be hotel rooms! Space has been saved.

"We will absolutely seat the delegation from Florida at the convention. That is in everybody's best interest. All of us are committed to make sure that happens," said Dean, standing next to Florida's party chair Karen Thurman and members of the state's congressional delegation. "We are confident enough that we have reserved hotel rooms for the delegates of Florida ... in Denver, as far as we know," he said, prompting laughter.

After the meeting, Dean and Thurman issued a joint statement:

Continue reading "Dean Says He is Committed to Getting Florida Seated" »

2:00 PM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Economy Top Issue For North Carolina Democrats

While we've heard about the economy being the number one issue for Democratic voters in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania (states "hit hard" by things like NAFTA), it turns out to also be the number one issue on the minds of Democrats in North Carolina.

The Raleigh News and Observer reports that a new poll by Public Policy Polling shows that the problems caused by the housing crisis, the Bear Sterns debacle and the roiling stock market are also front and center in North Carolina. Forth-eight percent of Democrats list it as the issue the most important to them, with the Iraq war in second place at 25 percent.

In an editorial, the paper noted that when one of its reporters interviewed Obama recently, he has stepped up his discussion of economic issues. It also noted that when his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, launched her campaign in North Carolina she also focused on the economy. Probably a good idea, the paper adds, in a state that lost 250,000 manufacturing jobs in the past decade.

"The discussion in which he and Clinton are engaged -- and which Republican nominee-in-waiting John McCain seems uncomfortable with -- can be productive if it helps to formulate some clear choices for Americans as they cast a presidential vote that is not just about the war in Iraq, though that will be a big factor, but about the country's future economic stability."

12:05 PM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

No Room at the Inn(s) for Michigan, Florida Delegates

Every four years, one of the most important questions faced by a political party come convention time is ... who gets the best hotels? Normally the bigger and the more important state delegations can walk to the convention center. Delegates from smaller or less important states need to bring a lot of cab fare.

But delegates from Michigan and Florida face a particular problem, reports The Hill. They may or may not get seated at the convention, but even if they are, they may not be able to find a place to stay in Denver. No one has assigned either state a hotel.

"I tell people there's good news and bad news," said Mitch Ceasar, chairman of Florida's Broward County Democratic Party. "I really believe we'll be going to the convention. But I think the hotel rooms are in Minneapolis."

But Michigan and Florida delegates have their own conspiracy theory -- they believe their rooms have been "secretly stashed away" and are just waiting to be unveiled when their mess gets straightened out. For instance, Michigan had its assigned hotel taken away, but the rooms have not been given to anyone else.

Coincidence? ... The delegates don't think so.

"We've heard rumors from credible sources that it will not be a problem, that a block has been set aside and once the problem has been solved they will receive a designation," Ceasar said. "Like a magic act."

(Hat tip to Robert Smith)

10:45 AM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton to Endorse Obama

Former Indiana Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton, vice-chairman of the panel that investigated 9/11 and the co-chairman of the Iraq Study Group will endorse Sen. Barack Obama today. The endorsement could boost Obama's national security credentials and help him deal with the "Who do you want to answer the phone at 3 a.m.?" question posed by the Clinton campaign.

Although he is not a superdelegate, it is another high-profile endorsement from a respected party member. He is the also the first high-profile Indiana politician to back Obama.

Hamilton, once mentioned as a possible running mate for Bill Clinton, told The Associated Press he believed Obama was the candidate most likely to unite the country.

"I begin by asking myself what kind of leadership the country needs at this juncture and I think, for me at least, the answer is that you want a candidate that will try to bring together a country that is very evenly divided, a country in which partisanship has been very sharp and to try to get a candidate who will create a new sense of national unity and will try to transcend the divisions within the country," he said.

Hamilton now leads the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.

UPDATE: Obama received yet another key endorsement, and a new superdelegate, when Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal announced his support for Obama today.

"The negativity, partisanship and lack of purpose that characterize our national debate and government are crippling this country," Governor Freudenthal said. "While no one individual can effect this change alone, the change must begin with someone. Senator Obama is the Democratic candidate with the openness, honesty and skill to end this vicious cycle of business as usual."

9:52 AM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Blumenthal: McCain "Flirted" with Leaving GOP

It could be just a part of a book promotion campaign. And it could be an old hand trying to help his political friends a bit. But former senior Clinton adviser Sidney Blumenthal claims that he knows for sure that Sen. John McCain "flirted" with the idea of leaving the GOP and becoming an independent "more or less" aligned with the Democrats in the Senate.

"And although he doesn't want to talk to reporters about it now, there was a time and I was privy to some of those who were involved, did conduct negotiations through third parties about whether or not he would leave the Republican Party and become an independent more or less aligned in the Senate with the Democrats," said Blumenthal on April 1. Blumenthal did not say when those negotiations took place.

Blumenthal, the former Washington bureau chief for Salon.com, made the remarks during a book reading at a Barnes and Noble in D.C. to promote his book "The Strange Death of Republican America: Chronicles of a Collapsing Party."

As the Business and Media Culture Web site reports, Blumenthal doesn't think McCain's passing fancy with leaving the GOP -- or his recent efforts to distance himself from the Bush presidency -- will hurt him with Republicans in the fall.

"I think Republicans as a whole -- even though they're suspicious, many of them of McCain and have been angry at him in the past -- are much more disciplined as party members than Democrats are. There's the famous saying of Will Rogers, 'I'm not a member of an organized political party -- I'm a Democrat.' So, I think Republicans will rally behind their candidate to a greater degree than people will recognize right now."

Blumenthal also offered McCain some advice on how to deal with conservatives in his party - forget about it. McCain, he says, doesn't have to do that much right now because the conservatives have no choice but to support him

8:45 AM ET | 04- 2-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Bill Richardson Defends his Obama Decision

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson must be getting some interesting e-mails from Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters in his in-box, because he felt a need to further explain his support of Sen. Barack Obama in today's Washington Post.

Nothing that he wouldn't "stoop as low" as former political consultant James Carville (who has compared Richardson to Judas), "I feel compelled to defend myself against character assassination and baseless allegations."

Richardson said he feels the campaign is getting too negative "and we Democrats need to calm the rhetoric and personal attacks so we can come together as a party to defeat the Republicans."

For those who accuse him of disloyalty to the Clintons, Richardson reminds readers that at one point earlier this year he was also a candidate for president, running against Clinton and others. "Was that also an act of disloyalty?," he asks.

Richardson said that regardless of reports to the contrary he never told former President Clinton that he would back his wife. And he called Sen. Clinton before his announcement of his support for Obama. He described it as a "difficult and heated discussion, the details of which I will not share here."

"I do not believe that the truth will keep Carville and others from attacking me," he concludes. "I can only say that we need to move on from the politics of personal insult and attacks. That era, personified by Carville and his ilk, has passed and I believe we must end the rancor and partisanship that has mired Washington in gridlock. In my view, Sen. Obama represents our best hope of replacing division with unity. That is why, out of loyalty to my country, I endorse him for president."

7:28 PM ET | 04- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Pledges to Create 3 Million New Jobs

Continuing her focus on the economy, Sen. Hillary Clinton told the attendees at the AFL-CIO's Pennsylvania's convention that she plans to create 3 million new jobs if she is elected president. Clinton plans to create the jobs through increased investments in the nation's infrastructure. Her plans would involve building "a greener, sleeker 21st century highway and transit system."

"President Bush has stood by and watched as we've lost 3 million manufacturing jobs. And he's done nothing about the loopholes in our tax code that actually encourage companies to ship jobs overseas," said Clinton. "It's time for a different approach. I'll fight for every single job in America -- and create millions of new, high paying jobs that can't be outsourced. We're trying to run today's economy on yesterday's infrastructure -- and we're jeopardizing tomorrow's prosperity. So I will rebuild America -- by rebuilding, repairing and modernizing our infrastructure."

But in an interesting moment in another part of the speech, she admitted that she had, well, benefited from President George Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy but that she didn't want them.

"Now, I never thought I'd say this but ever since my husband got out of full time public service, he's actually made money, much to both of our amazement. But I have to confess, as recipients of all of George Bush's tax breaks, I can tell you I didn't need them, I didn't want them, I didn't ask for them. And when I am president, we're going to take those back from people making over $250,000 a year in America."

Not to mention that part about "my husband making money," which will probably renew calls for her tax returns to be released.

5:40 PM ET | 04- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Howard Dean Says No To Idea of Superdelegate Primary

Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean today threw cold water on the idea of a primary for superdelegates as a way to wrap up the race for the party's presidential nomination.

USAToday reports that Dean "does not a support a plan advanced by Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen for a two-day meeting of super delegates in June to pick either Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama -- assuming the contenders are still nearly tied in "pledged" delegate numbers -- as the party's standard-bearer."

"We can't have a convention of superdelegates because it would look like 330 delegates are overriding the wishes of 30 million voters," Dean said. "It's good that [Bredesen's] talking about it because it focuses the attention of the unpledged delegates on the need to put their country and their party first by making up their mind before the convention," he said.

Dean says that he hopes the nearly 800 superdelegates will make their views known by July 1 in order to avoid a possible disastrous (for the Democrats) show down at the party's convention in Denver Aug. 25-28.

5:10 PM ET | 04- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

The Awkward Moment at McCain's High School Speech

As we reported earlier, Sen. John McCain gave his second address in his "Service to America" tour at his former school, Episcopal High in Alexandria, Virginia. For the most part, the speech -- which was about the importance of honor -- went off as planned.

Ah, but the best laid plans can sometimes go astray.

It was the last question of the day. Katelin Halldorson, a junior, asked Sen. McCain the following question:

"I think judging by the amount of press representatives here and also by the integration of your previous political endorsements in your earlier personal narrative, we can see that this isn't completely absent - er, political motivation isn't completely absent yet we were told that this isn't a political event. So what exactly is your purpose in being here, not that I don't appreciate the opportunity but I'd just like some clarification."

And there was the awkward moment. McCain tried to answer:

"I knew I should have cut this thing off. This meeting is over. (Laughing from crowd.) This is an opportunity and part of a series of visits that I'm playing - paying. It started in Mississippi where my family's roots are back to the middle of the 19th century to here. We're going from here to Pensacola, FL and to Jacksonville, FL and a couple of other places where - we're going to Annapolis where I obviously attended the Naval Academy ... And it's sort of a tour where we try to not only emphasize the values and principles that guided me and I think a lot of this country in the past, but also portray a vision of how I think we need to address the challenges of the future."

Then he apologized to the students: "I hope that attendance here was not compulsory. If it was than you - I apologize for if you were, if you were unwillingly in attendance here... And with that I would like to say thank you."

You can hear the exchange of the audio clip above.

As Anna Marie Cox wrote at Time's Swampland blog, "My thought, for what it's worth: after a lively discussion about honor, Katelin reminded McCain what he was really there for: politics -- a pursuit that's quite distinct, to say the least, from honor."

3:35 PM ET | 04- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Obama Makes Up Ground in Pennsylvania

If this trend continues, Hillary Clinton is going to wish the Pennsylvania primary was held a week ago.

Two new polls show Barack Obama making up a fair bit of ground in the Keystone State. A new Rasmussen poll of 730 likely Democratic voters says Clinton leads 47% to 42% over Obama. In their last poll, a week ago, Clinton lead by ten percent.

A SurveyUSA poll of 1600 registered voters conducted exclusively for four Pennsylvania TV stations shows Clinton with a 12-point lead, a comfortable margin. But a SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago showed her with a 19-point lead. Now she's down two points and Obama is up five. The poll showed Obama gaining ground cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and among older voters, men and conservative Democrats.

"In southeast Pennsylvania, which includes Philadelphia and makes up 43 percent of likely Democratic voters, the candidates have traded places: Clinton had been up two points but is now down three. In southwest Pennsylvania, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton had led by 31, but now is at 17, a 14-point swing to Obama."
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UPDATE: This is apparently not unexpected by some of Clinton's supporters. Yesterday Gov. Ed Rendell told ABC's Good Morning America, "We have a very strong lead, but I think that lead is going to shrink."

Lowering expectations? Or just reading the tea leaves?

2:05 PM ET | 04- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

McCain Goes Back to High School

On the second stop of his "Service to America" tour, Sen. John McCain went to his old school, Episcopal High School, in Alexandria, Virginia, where he talked about his English teacher, William B. Ravenel, a man McCain described as his hero.

He also made this rather refreshing admission:

"As a young man, I would respond aggressively and sometimes irresponsibly to anyone whom I perceived to have questioned my sense of honor and self-respect. Those responses often got me in a fair amount of trouble earlier in life. In all candor, as an adult I've been known to forget occasionally the discretion expected of a person of my years and station when I believe I've been accorded a lack of respect I did not deserve. Self-improvement should be a work in progress all our lives, and I confess to needing it as much as anyone. But I believe if my detractors had known me at Episcopal they might marvel at the self-restraint and mellowness I developed as an adult. Or perhaps they wouldn't quite see it that way."

McCain is not afraid to talk about his own foibles. But what about the wisdom of a campaign strategy built primarily on biographical details? The last candidate to do so was Sen. Bob Dole in 1996, and many experts feel that only served to remind voters how old he was. And as liberal blogger Matt Stoller recently pointed out, the candidate with the more impressive war record (both Democrat and Republican) lost in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004. So it will be interesting to see how McCain's emphasis on his record will play with the American voter in the fall.

Meanwhile, the Democrats, knowing that McCain will be on David Letterman tonight, tried using humor to link him with President Bush again.

(Actually, it's a surprise they didn't use McCain's attempt at the Beach Boys and "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.")

Not to be outdone, the Republican National Committee takes a swipe at the Democrats over superdelegates.

1:25 PM ET | 04- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Former Foe of Clinton Turns His Sights on Obama

Apparently Sen. Hillary Clinton has a new fan -- her longtime foe Richard Mellon Scaife. The billionaire who was alleged to have funded many of the attacks on her husband during his presidency (think "vast right-wing conspiracy") says he admires the courage she showed recently when she ventured to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and answered questions from reporters. (It's a paper owned by Scaife -- he was in the room when she did the interview.) It was at the Tribune-Review session that Clinton made her first attack on Barack Obama's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Perhaps she inspired Scaife. The Tribune-Review -- the same paper that ran so many articles in the 90s on how the Clinton were involved in the death of White House counsel Vince Foster -- is now running pieces that suggest, as Matt Yglesias at theAtlantic.com phrases it, "about how crazy black man Barack Obama and his crazy black church pastor are personally responsible for high rates of crime in the African-American community."

Ralph R. Reiland, described by the Tribune-Review as "an associate professor of economics at Robert Morris University and a local restaurateur," wrote an opinion piece about the high levels of black on black crime and how blacks commit more crimes than whites, etc. And he's just figured out why.

"Until I heard the racist and anti-American tirades of Barack Obama's pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, it hadn't occurred to me that the murderous fires in the black community were being stoked from the pulpits inside black churches. I wonder if it's ever occurred to Obama and Wright that it probably doesn't help young people in the black community when they're told that their country hates them, that the U.S. government gave them drugs and AIDS, and that jail and genocide are the officially-sanctioned plan for them."

The articles don't seem to be having a lot of effect so far. A SurveyUSA polls released today shows that Obama has cut Clinton's 31-point lead in southwestern Pennsylvania -- which includes Pittsburgh -- to 17 percent in the past three weeks.

Slate offers an interesting, to say the least, look at some of the things that Scaife has said and done over the years.

12:20 PM ET | 04- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Obama Picks Up Another Delegate in Mississippi

Monday Mississippi certified the results of its March 11th Democratic primary which was won by Barack Obama. The final results were Obama with 62.51% of the vote and Hillary Clinton at 37.49%. This final result produced a slightly different outcome than the one projected on election night - Obama picked up one delegate and Clinton lost one, a "swing" of two delegates.

So in a race where every delegate seems to count a great deal, Obama ends up with a net gain of seven delegates from Mississippi rather than five. The Obama camp says this puts his pledged delegate lead at 169.

11:45 AM ET | 04- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

The Michigan, Florida Delegates Numbers Game

(Sorry for the delay in posting. We had some Internet issues this morning. -- Tom)

Sen. Hillary Clinton's last, best hope of getting the Florida and Michigan delegates seated in a manner that favors her presidential bid rests with the 169-member Credentials Committee for the Democratic National Convention. She needs to convince enough members of this committee to support her position in order to have the nomination chips fall her way.

And as Politico.com reports, it's not looking too good so far.

In an analysis of the committee, David Paul Kuhn writes that Clinton will not have enough votes on the committee to deliver the decision she wants.

"The analysis was conducted by Matt Seyfang, an attorney and a former delegate counter for past Democratic presidential candidates including Bill Clinton in 1992 to Bill Bradley in 2000. According to his projections and a calculation of the number of committee seats that each candidate is entitled to based on their proportion to the statewide vote or the relevant caucus rules, Obama holds roughly 65 seats and Clinton 56. There are slightly more than 23 seats still to be decided in the remaining contests."

Clinton's one hope is that most of the 25 members appointed to the committee by party Chairman Howard Dean will swing her way. But several bloggers and pundits in the past month have discussed how carefully Dean has selected the committee -- appointing many people who worked on his presidential campaign -- making sure that they are loyal to him before they are loyal to anyone else. And Dean's position on the Florida and Michigan delegates has been pretty clear so far -- the rules are the rules and those two states broke them.

But here is the Democrat's nightmare: Clinton has already hit the 20 percent threshold needed to create a minority report. So even if a majority of the committee support Obama's position, both the majority and minority reports must be presented and voted on by all seated convention delegates.

And that could be a contentious affair for sure.

11:30 AM ET | 04- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Get My Vote: Political Belief Beyond Party Lines

We've been checking out some of the new videos at NPR's Get My Vote project and folks are leaving some thoughtful contributions

Here's Matt Barnes of Portland, Maine on political beliefs beyond party affiliation:

Patricia Rich of Boise, Idaho talks about her first memories of politics when she was eleven, the death of JFK and why she thinks it takes a certain personality type to be excited about politics:

And finally, a Canadian student in the U.S. talks about why Americans have to think not only about their responsibility to their country when they vote but also about their responsibility to the world because of the U.S.' special status as the world's only superpower.

5:30 PM ET | 03-31-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Obama and Oil Money: Not As Simple As It Looks

In a recent ad that aired in Pennsylvania, Sen. Barack Obama made the following claim:

"Since the gas lines of the '70's, Democrats and Republicans have talked about energy independence, but nothing's changed except now Exxon's making $40 billion a year, and we're paying $3.50 for gas. ... I don't take money from oil companies or Washington lobbyists, and I won't let them block change anymore. They'll pay a penalty on windfall profits. We'll invest in alternative energy, create jobs and free ourselves from foreign oil."

Here's the ad:

The Clinton campaign accused Obama of "false advertising" for the ad. "Senator Obama says he doesn't take campaign contributions from oil companies but the reality is that Exxon, Shell, and others are among his donors," Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said.

Well, not exactly Phil. Here what an Associated Press Fact Check has to say on the issue. It is true, Obama does not take money from oil companies. No one does - it's illegal. It's sort of like Obama saying "I don't rob banks to finance my campaign" - that would be illegal too. But he also does not take money from oil company political action committees (PACs) or lobbyists.

But boy, he sure does take money from people who work for oil companies. A lot of money. Not as much, however, as Clinton and Sen. John McCain do.

"As of Feb. 29, Obama's presidential campaign had received nearly $214,000 from oil and gas industry employees and their families, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Clinton had received nearly $307,000 from industry workers and their families and Republican Sen. John McCain, the likely GOP presidential nominee, received nearly $394,000, according to the center's totals."

And two of Obama's fundraisers are oil company executives: Robert Cavnar, the chairman and chief executive of Houston-based Mission Resources Corp., and George Kaiser, the president and CEO of Tulsa-based Kaiser-Francis Oil Co.

So this is one of those cases when the candidate is telling the truth but basically ignoring the deeper issue that people really want to know about: could you be influenced by oil company money in some way?

That is a question as yet unanswered.

4:10 PM ET | 03-31-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

Arizona Considers Guest Worker Program

Some southwestern states, tired of waiting for Washington to do something about fixing the immigration system, have decided to take matters into their own hands.

The Christian Science Monitor reports that the Arizona state legislature is considering its own guest worker program which it would administer rather than the federal government.

"The Arizona legislature is expected on Monday to fast track bills to create a temporary worker program in the state. Even with the backing of top lawmakers, the bills face big hurdles, including sign-off from the feds. But if approved, they would streamline the process for Arizona employers to hire temporary workers from Mexico -- and would serve as a model for national reform, say supporters."

The Arizona program would allow an unlimited number of workers to legally enter the U.S. to work temporarily in Arizona for up to two years if an employer can prove a shortage of labor. Under the current federal program a guest worker can only stay for 10 months. Meanwhile The Associated Press reported recently that Colorado is looking at similar measures for its chili, watermelon and tomato crops.

Critics -- and there are many of them -- say the program won't work because it will stimulate, not stop, illegal immigration. "Once migratory movements start, they become self-perpetuating," says Luis Plascencia, an expert on Mexican migration and guest worker programs at Arizona State University in Tempe.

The current presidential candidates have differing positions on guest worker programs. Hillary Clinton is opposed to them because she thinks they will depress wages for Americans. Barack Obama supports a guest-worker program with a database of workers, arguing it will improve wages and conditions for all workers. John McCain had originally wanted a guest-worker program under his failed immigration reform bill. But during CNN's January 30 Republican presidential debate McCain said he would not support his own program if it now came to a vote on the Senate floor. As a senator from Arizona, it will be interesting to see where he stands on his state legislature's idea.

So tell us what you think. Are state guest worker programs the way to deal with illegal immigration? Or is it just another way to sneak into the U.S.? If so, how do we help employers who say their crops are "rotting in the fields" for lack of workers to pick them?

2:58 PM ET | 03-31-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

PolitiFact: Tax Chain E-Mail is Not Correct

One of the fastest ways to spread political information ... or disinformation ... these days is to stick it in an e-mail and spam it to as many people as you can in the hope that they will spam it to all their friends and so on. For instance, take the false message sent to many people that Barack Obama is secretly a Muslim "bend on destroying the United States." The Obama campaign has had to fight that chain e-mail for months.

PolitiFact, a project of the St. Petersburg Times and Congressional Quarterly, is one of the many good Web sites that now exists to check candidate statements and media reports about them for truthfulness. One of the services that PolitiFact provides is The Chain E-mail Files, which checks out the veracity of the chain e-mails that float around the Internet.

Recently the site looked at an e-mail that said Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama want to "raise capital gains taxes and dividends taxes, as well as raise tax rates for all income levels" while John McCain wants to make all of President Bush's tax cuts permanent. So PolitiFact checked out the e-mail's claims.

"Clinton has said the tax cuts should stay in place for people making less than $250,000, while Obama has said the tax cuts should be repealed for the top 1 percent. (According to the Congressional Budget Office, the top 1 percent of taxpayers in 2005 were those with an average pretax income of $1.6-million. The minimum income for the top 1 percent is $307,500.) So the e-mail is wrong about what Clinton and Obama have actually proposed. It's correct that McCain supports making the Bush tax cuts permanent for all income levels....

"We find this chain e-mail gets facts both large and small wrong. It doesn't list the higher tax brackets that actually would go up if Clinton or Obama implemented their plans, and it accuses them of wanting to raise rates on lower incomes that they've said should stay the same. So we rate the chain e-mail's claim False."

So the next time you get a chain e-mail that makes a claim that you're not too sure about, check out the PolitiFact site. It'll make you a better informed voter.

1:24 PM ET | 03-31-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Obama Calls for Holiday to Mark Cesar Chavez

Sen. Barack Obama has called for a national holiday to mark the birthday of Mexican-American labor activist and leader of the United Farm Workers, Cesar Chavez.

"Today is Cesar Chavez's birthday, and his life and legacy are important for us all to remember. From his beginnings as a farmworker picking lettuce and beets in the American Southwest, Cesar Chavez rose to help found the United Farm Workers, providing hundreds of thousands of people with better working conditions and the chance to live a better life. He proved what I have long believed -- that together, ordinary people can do extraordinary things. When some said he could not organize farmworkers and take on the growers, he said, 'Si Se Puede' - 'Yes We Can.' It's a philosophy of hope and aspiration that inspires us today."

The call for a holiday can be seen as a direct appeal to Latino voters in the Democratic Party who have tended to support Sen. Hillary Clinton.

California currently observes Chavez' birthday, March 31, as a state holiday. Texas also recognizes the day, and it is an optional holiday in Arizona and Colorado.

12:15 PM ET | 03-31-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Supreme Court Won't Get Invovled In Jefferson Case

The Supreme Court today decided to pass on a U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruling that curtailed the power of the FBI to search congressional offices. The case arises out of the 2006 FBI search of the House offices of Louisiana Democratic Rep. William Jefferson (he of the "cold hard cash" jokes - at one point he stored thousands of dollars in a refrigerator).

Jefferson is fighting federal corruption charges that he solicited more than $500,000 in bribes for business deals in Africa. He argued that when the FBI raided his offices, they took materials they had no right to have. He said many of the documents taken by the feds were protected by the Speech and Debate Clause, "which protects elected officials from being questioned by the president, a prosecutor or a plaintiff in a lawsuit about their legislative work." The FBI's response was that it had legally obtained a search warrant to conduct the raid.

The question for the Supreme Court was did the clause also apply to searches. The Supreme Court ended up agreeing with the appeals court's ruling that some of the documents taken were indeed subject to the Speech and Debate Clause. Jefferson, they said, should have had the right to look over the documents before they were removed.

As The Swamp notes: "The court's ruling means that the Speech and Debate clause applies to searches by federal agents. The Justice Department complained that the decision would force it to give members of Congress advance notice before a raid is conducted, but the opinion doesn't say that. It simply requires that the member be given some opportunity to review and set aside materials related to the legislative process."

The ruling doesn't mean that Jefferson will get all his personal papers and notes back. The case is now being sent back to a lower court judge who will determine which papers fit the "legislative materials" description and must be returned to Jefferson.

11:54 AM ET | 03-31-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

McCain Talks about His Family During Tour

As Sen. John McCain continues his fight for media attention, he begins his "Service to America" tour today with a speech in Meridian, Mississippi. In the speech he'll talk about his family's long history of service to the country, including a distant ancestor who served on George Washington's staff, according to notes distributed by McCain's communications people.

"I am the son and grandson of admirals. My grandfather was an aviator; my father a submariner. They were my first heroes, and their respect for me has been one of the most lasting ambitions of my life. They gave their lives to their country, and taught me lessons about honor, courage, duty, perseverance and leadership that I didn't fully grasp until later in life, but remembered when I needed them most. I have been an imperfect servant of my country for many years. But I am their son, and they showed me how to love my country, and that has made all the difference for me, my friends, all the difference in the world."

He'll also release a Web-only ad that will appear on news and information sites that continues the focus on his family's service to the country.

But as NPR's Cokie Roberts noted during her conversation with Renee Montagne on Morning Edition, McCain still has a lot of work to do with the Republican base and they might be put off by this general election strategy. Roberts also noted that the lack of media attention means McCain is having trouble raising money. The New York Times reports McCain hasn't been able to attract many of the big donors who gave to the Bush campaign over the past two election cycles.

Here's one reason why McCain wants to talk about his family - The Associated Press reports it's one of the reasons that he's doing so well in the polls.

10:35 AM ET | 03-31-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

MN Senator, NC House Members to Back Obama

Sen. Barack Obama picks up another importance endorsement, and another superdelegate, today when Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar will announce her support during a conference call with reporters.

In a statement provided to The Associated Press, Klobuchar said Obama "has inspired an enthusiasm and idealism that we have not seen in this country in a long time."

Klobuchar, a freshman Democrat, said Obama speaks "with a different voice, bringing a new perspective and inspiring a real excitement from the American people." She compared him to the late Hubert Humphrey, who served as a senator from Minnesota and as vice president.

Obama carried Minnesota by a wide margin over rival Sen. Hillary Clinton. The Obama campaign says that Klobuchar is the 64th superdelegate to endorse him since the Feb. 5th Super Tuesday contests. Clinton has gotten nine since that date.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports that North Carolina's seven Democratic House members are preparing to endorse Obama as a group, Just one has done so already.

The Journal also reports that both Sen. Klobuchar and Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey -- who endorsed Obama last week -- had originally planned to remain neutral, but "decided to weigh in as the Democrats' campaign became more negative and Sen. McCain was free to exploit the confusion looking to the November election."

The Clinton camp continued to reject the idea that a prolonged campaign would hurt the party. Over the weekend. Former Pres. Bill Clinton told 2000 attendees at the California State Democratic Convention to "chill out" about the process. Sen. Clinton said she planned to fight until the convention in August if need be. And even Sen. Obama said that Clinton should remain in the race as long as she wants to, calling her a "fierce, formidable opponent."

8:45 AM ET | 03-31-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Obama Does Well in Texas Regional Conventions

Sen. Barack Obama had a good weekend in Texas. The Houston Chronicle reports that he "emerged with a majority of the state's at-large presidential nominating delegates and possibly a majority of all Texas delegates."

The actual number of delegates awarded to Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton won't be announced until the Texas state convention meets from June 5-7. But Obama appeared to be winning about 58 percent of the delegates to the state convention. The Obama camp says this gives them a 38-29 at-large delegate lead. (The Clinton camp says it's 37-30, but not all the results from Saturday's regional meetings were final.) Clinton won the popular vote primary (in which Democrats, Republicans and independents were allowed to vote) giving her a 65-61 allotted delegate lead.

When the totals from the weekend are added, Obama now has a five-delegate (or three, if there is that delegate difference) lead over all.

"We can confirm now that Barack Obama won Texas," said Obama spokesman Josh Earnest.

But the Clinton campaign says it will continue to fight for delegates until the summer convention and cut into Obama's lead. Clinton state Chairman Garry Mauro said Clinton may be able to take at least two delegates away.

"If we're in a hot race on June 6, we expect to pick up more delegates," Mauro said. "I believe at the end of the day we will run either dead even or come out ahead in the delegate count."

Meanwhile there are also 35 superdelegates from Texas. At present, 12 are for Clinton, 10 for Obama and 13 are uncommitted.

5:00 AM ET | 03-31-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

"NPS" Offers a New Way to Survey Voters

You know what it's like when you find a restaurant that you really like? Or a mechanic who does a great job .. and is cheap? Or a movie that leaves you breathless? You just want to tell everyone about it.

Well, public opinion researchers (also known as pollsters) have a term for this feeling: Net Promoter Score, or NPS. (Those of us who work on the Internet might use another word to describe it - viral ... you pass it along because you like it -- think of the number of YouTube videos your friends have sent you.)

Now NPS is being "adapted from the world of consumer research" and used "to measure voter enthusiasm and passion for a candidate." Pollsters are asking a simple question: "On a 0 to 10 scale, with 0 being "not at all likely" and 10 being "extremely likely," how likely is it that you would recommend voting for [INSERT CANDIDATE NAME] in the next election to a friend or colleague?"

As pollster Alex Landry (research director at the Republican polling firm, TargetPoint Consulting) writes at Pollster.com, "The NPS is calculated by subtracting the number of detractors (ratings of 0-6) from the number of promoters (ratings of 9 and 10). In the business world, +16 is the median score of more than 400 companies across 28 industries; CostCo has one of the highest known scores at +81.

"Studies have shown a direct and significant correlation between a business' score and company growth - specifically, a 7 point increase in overall NPS or a 2 point reduction in the percentage of detractors can each account for one percent of positive growth, thus indicating the potential electoral consequences of this measure once adapted to political polling."

Landry notes that NPS has its detractors, and it doesn't have a long history in political polling. But when it was tried in 2005-2006, it indicated that the Republicans were in more trouble than many people thought they were -- which turned out to be true.

Landry offers some interesting results for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Definitely worth a read.

5:06 PM ET | 03-28-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Clinton Strong in PA, Obama Reclaims National Lead

Hillary Clinton continues to have a large lead in Pennsylvania, while Barack Obama appears to have opened a "statistically significant" lead nationally.

A survey by the American Research Group shows that Barack Obama has made little headway in the Keystone State, still trailing Clinton by double-digits, 51% to 39%

Some of the poll's findings: Obama leads among men 51% to 38% and Clinton leads among women 61% to 30%. Clinton leads among white voters 60% to 30% and Obama leads among African American voters 83% to 11%. Obama leads 46% to 43% among likely primary voters under 50 and Clinton leads 60% to 32% among likely primary voters 50 and older.

But the Gallup Daily Tracking poll has better news for Obama. It shows him with an eight-point lead over Clinton, 50% to 42%.

"Obama's current 8-point advantage ties his largest lead of the Gallup Poll Daily tracking program, along with a 50% to 42% showing in Feb. 28-March 1 polling. Obama clearly has weathered the Wright storm, while the dark clouds have shifted to Clinton over whether she has exaggerated her foreign policy credentials. This week she has had to defend her repeated claim that she came under sniper fire while visiting Bosnia as first lady, which news video clearly disputed.

"Many Democrats are concerned that the ongoing nomination campaign -- which has grown increasingly contentious in recent weeks -- will hurt the party in the general election. Right now, the races remain close, but Republican John McCain has an edge over both Clinton and Obama in registered voters' general election preferences. In the new Gallup Poll Daily tracking update, McCain has a statistically significant 4-point lead over Clinton (48% to 44%) and a smaller 2-point advantage over Obama (46% to 44%)."

4:05 PM ET | 03-28-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

Sen. Patrick Leahy Calls on Clinton to Drop Out

Going where no senior Democratic politician has gone before, Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy has called on Sen. Hillary Clinton to drop of the Democratic presidential race.

"There is no way that Sen. Clinton is going to win enough delegates to get the nomination," Leahy, an Obama supporter, said in an interview with Vermont Public Radio this morning. "She ought to withdraw, and she ought to be backing Sen. Obama."

The Los Angeles Times reports that Leahy also said that Republican John McCain "has been making one gaffe after another [and] is getting a free ride," Leahy said the sniping between Democrats hurts them more than anything the Arizona senator has thrown their way.

But the Clinton campaign, in an e-mail sent out to supporters, said it noted a pattern in the calls for her to drop out.

"Every time our campaign demonstrates its strength and resilience, people start to suggest we should end our pursuit of the Democratic nomination," said the note, which made no mention of Leahy. "Those anxious to force us to the sidelines aren't doing it because they think we're going to lose the upcoming primaries. The fact is, they're reading the same polls we are, and they know we are in a position to win."

Dan Balz at the Washington Post reports that Leahy's comment may just be the "sound of one hand clapping, an observation by a politician given to speak his mind but not necessarily something that opens up a torrent of supporting commentary from others in the party. That is obviously Clinton's biggest worry and her campaign will be waiting nervously to see what happens next."

2:10 PM ET | 03-28-2008 | permalink | comments (25) | e-mail post

 

Report: Giuliani Weighing Run for Gov. in "Special" Election

Just because they didn't like him in Florida, doesn't mean Rudy is giving up on politics.

The New York Post reports today that former New York Mayor and one-time Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani would consider a run for New York governor if the current governor, David Paterson was forced to resign.

Paterson, of course, just became governor himself (after the sudden resignation of Eliot Spitzer), but spent most of his first two weeks in office detailing affairs that both he and his wife had during a "troubled period" in their marriage. Paterson also admitted that he had abused drugs decades ago. Questions have also been raised about the possible misuse of campaign funds.

If Paterson was forced out of office, then a special election would have to be held in August. A top adviser to the former mayor said he would consider a run for the office if such a series of events was to take place.

"It appears, however, that those disclosures have raised little outrage, either from the public or his colleagues in Albany," adds the Post. "If anything, coming on the heels of Eliot Spitzer's sex-scandal resignation, Paterson's candor has prompted questions among Albany insiders as to whether he may face further troubles. He added this week that he was done talking about his personal life."

So we'll just have to wait and see what happens over the next few months.

1:51 PM ET | 03-28-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

U. of Chicago Says Obama Was Considered a Professor

Sen. Barack Obama has been accused, particularly by the Clinton camp, of exaggerating his resume by saying that he was a constitutional law professor at the University of Chicago law school. His detractors say he was no such thing.

Well, it looks like he has the school on his side.

The university's law school issued a press release today to clarify Obama's position. The release says he was a "senior lecturer" but that is considered at the school as being the same as a professor.

Here is the press release.

"The Law School has received many media requests about Barack Obama, especially about his status as 'Senior Lecturer.' From 1992 until his election to the U.S. Senate in 2004, Barack Obama served as a professor in the Law School. He was a Lecturer from 1992 to 1996. He was a Senior Lecturer from 1996 to 2004, during which time he taught three courses per year. Senior Lecturers are considered to be members of the Law School faculty and are regarded as professors, although not full-time or tenure-track. The title of Senior Lecturer is distinct from the title of Lecturer, which signifies adjunct status. Like Obama, each of the Law School's Senior Lecturers have high-demand careers in politics or public service, which prevent full-time teaching. Several times during his 12 years as a professor in the Law School, Obama was invited to join the faculty in a full-time tenure-track position, but he declined."

12:00 PM ET | 03-28-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey to Back Obama

Sen. Barack Obama will pick up an important endorsement today (and another superdelegate vote) when Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will announce that he is endorsing Sen. Barack Obama's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The Philadelphia Enquirer reports that "Casey plans to endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president today in Pittsburgh, sending a message both to the state's primary voters and to undecided superdelegates who might decide the close race for the Democratic presidential nomination."

The paper said that a source in the Casey camp said that the senator was impressed with how Obama had stood up to the pressures of the campaign, including recent attacks over the racially incendiary remarks of his former pastor.

"Casey's decision was also personal, motivated in part by the enthusiasm his four daughters - Elyse, Caroline, Julia and Marena - have expressed for Obama, the source said. 'He thinks we shouldn't be deaf to the voices of the next generation.' "

Casey's endorsement puts him at odds with fellow Pennsylvania Democrats Gov. Ed Rendell and Rep. John Murtha, who are supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, another Democratic Senator and former presidential candidate, Chris Dodd of Connecticut (who supports Obama) , said it will soon be time for party leaders to "step up to the plate."

" ... we've got a contest coming up in Pennsylvania and one in North Carolina and Indiana very quickly afterwards," Dodd told the National Journal. "... We want this to be over with. We want to get behind this candidate, and we want people to pull together to win that election in November -- to build those majorities in the House and the Senate if we can, and then start doing the work on health care and Iraq and all these other issues that demand our attention."
------
Update: Here is a list of superdelegates from Pennsylvania and who they are supporting:

Congressman Jason Altmire - Uncommitted
Rena Baumgartner - Clinton
Congressman Bob Brady - Uncommitted
Carole Campbell - Obama
Congressman Chris Carney - Uncommitted
Sen. Bob Casey - Obama
Ronald Donatucci - Clinton
Congressman Mike Doyle - Uncommitted
Congressman Chakah Fattah - Obama
Bill George - Uncommitted
Marcel Groen - Uncommitted
Congressman Tim Holden - Uncommitted
Congressman Paul Kanjorski - Clinton
Leon Lynch - Obama
Sophie Masloff - Uncommitted
Gerald W. McEntee - Clinton
Jean Milko - Clinton
Congressman Patrick Murphy - Obama
Ian Murray - Clinton
Congressma Jack Murtha - Clinton
Governor Ed Rendell - Clinton
Evelyn Richardson - Clinton
T.J. Rooney - Clinton
Ruth C. Rudy - Clinton
Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz - Clinton
Congressman Joe Sestak - Clinton

This represents 26 in total. Keep in mind that there are three slots to fill which will be approved by the members of the Democratic State Committee at the regularly scheduled meeting of June 6 and 7. The deadline to provide those names to the DNC is June 7.

9:39 AM ET | 03-28-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Former President Clinton Continues to Generate Heat

If Sen. Hillary Clinton has to run as her party's nominee in the fall, her husband just made it a little more difficult for her to win in the key state of New Hampshire. (Not to mention if she ever has to run in a Democratic primary there again.)

It's well known that New Hampshire residents take their "first primary in the nation" status pretty seriously. They believe it's the one time that a small state like New Hampshire gets a chance to be a player on the national political stage. (And the state has played no small role in rescuing the political chances of both Clintons.) So it seems they weren't too happy when Monday former President Bill Clinton, as the Manchester Union-Leader put it, "threw New Hampshire and our Democratic Secretary of State Bill Gardner under the proverbial bus."

Clinton was trying to make another argument Monday in Indiana for allowing Michigan and Florida delegates to be seated at the Democratic National Convention in August. "We let New Hampshire go out of turn," said Clinton. "They had a Democratic secretary of state. The Florida voters are totally innocent. They asked to vote on time."

"Never mind the historical record, which shows that Florida and Michigan moved up their primaries first, prompting New Hampshire to respond," said the conservative Union-Leader in an editorial. "If they stand in the way of the Clintons' march through history, the facts be damned. And, if they stand in the way of the Clintons' march through history, their friends be damned, too."

Meanwhile, President Clinton is trying a new argument about the pledged delegates - delegates from caucuses aren't as important as the ones from primaries. ABC News reports that Thursday, while speaking to his wife's Texas supporters, Clinton downplayed the importance of caucuses. (Don't tell Iowa!) "Right now, among all the primary states, believe it or not, Hillary's only 16 votes behind in pledged delegates," said Clinton, "and she's gonna wind up with the lead in the popular vote in the primary states. She's gonna wind up with the lead in the delegates [from primary states]. It's the caucuses that have been killing us."

"Bill Clinton's decision to flatly predict that his wife will finish ahead of Obama in the pledged delegates and popular vote which come strictly from primary states comes as his wife's advisers concede that the former first lady will not be able to catch Obama in the total number of pledged delegates," adds ABC.

8:56 AM ET | 03-28-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post

 

McCain Launches First TV Ad of Fall Campaign

OK, the Democrats don't have a nominee yet, and the media are focused on their battle to the exclusion of almost everything else. It's hard for a Republican presidential nominee to get any attention. But Sen. John McCain doesn't seem to care. He's ready to campaign for president now, so he's launched the first TV ad of the "fall" campaign.

You can see it here:

Meanwhile, Time magazine "puts McCain to the ethics test" and finds that he isn't quite as pure as the driven snow.

"In some cases, McCain's intervention on causes that favored donors appeared to be exceptional. Consider the committee meeting that McCain led on June 23, 1999. The topic of the day was a proposal to require access to 911 emergency services for cellular phones. But McCain scrambled the script with just a few hours' notice. He introduced an unrelated amendment that would force the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to allow companies to own two television stations in the same market. Democrats were outraged by the move, since it violated McCain's own rule requiring Senators to give a full day's notice before introducing amendments, a practice he put in place to prevent under-the-radar legislative tampering."

On the other hand ...

" ... McCain has some surprising character witnesses. 'He has always done the right thing, as far as I know, on the legislation I have worked on with him,' says Joan Claybrook, president of the liberal group Public Citizen, an organization that disagrees with most of McCain's votes on key issues. 'He will listen to the merits and make a decision.' "

As Time notes, this complex legacy may be difficult to explain to voters in the fall. " ...McCain is now in the awkward position of hoping voters will give him the benefit of the doubt that he has denied to others."

8:00 AM ET | 03-28-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Obama, Clinton Say Party Will Unite Behind Winner

Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama told Democrats to take a deep breath yesterday and stop worry. The two rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination told their supporters that "they may bicker daily over issues, character and innuendo" but they both believe that "Democratic voters will coalesce around a nominee and carry him or her to victory in November over Republican John McCain."

The Associated Press reports that both candidates addressed the issue after a series of polls showed that the intensity of their struggle was affecting their supporters. Many told pollsters that they would rather vote for McCain than for the other Democrat.

"Please think through this decision. It is not a wise decision," Clinton said to applause from a crowd in Fayetteville, North Carolina. "Every time we have a vigorous contest like we're having this primary election, people get intense. Senator Obama has intense support. I have intense support. It's exciting because people want to be involved. But, the differences ... pale in comparison to the differences between us and Senator McCain."

Clinton pledged to be a "team player," regardless of who won the nomination, saying she would help to make sure the party was united

Meanwhile, Obama was making a similar point during an interview on ABC's "World News."

"There are going to be some bruised feelings, whoever the nominee is. We are going to have to come together and remind ourselves that there is a heck of a lot bigger difference between either Senator Clinton or myself, and John McCain," Obama said. "I think short term, there is going to be work to do for the nominee to bring the party back together again. People feel pretty passionate about their respective candidates. I appreciate that, and I understand it."

In an interview with the AP, former vice president Al Gore also said there was no urgency to resolve the contest now. "What have we got, five months left?" he said, when asked about whether he would make an endorsement soon.

5:20 AM ET | 03-28-2008 | permalink | comments (39) | e-mail post

 

Obama Attacks Wall Street While Taking Their Money

Senator Obama's speech today outlined his differences with the other presidential candidates regarding the crisis on Wall Street. But it also highlighted the degree to which all three major candidates are involved with Wall Street.

In assigning blame for the subprime mortgage collapse, as well as for other financial woes, Obama went further than either his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, or Republican John McCain.

He spread the blame around... but largely in Washington. He said both Democrats and Republicans, quote, let the special interests put their thumbs on the economic scales.

"The future cannot be shaped by the best-connected lobbyists with the best record of raising money for campaigns. This thinking is wrong for the financial sector and it's wrong for our country."

"Obama is now the number one recipient of securities and investment money among the presidential candidates," says Sheila Krumholz, director of the Center for Responsive Politics. She says the center's analysis of campaign finance data shows that Obama has raised 6.7 million dollars from people and political action committees in the securities and investment industry.

Hillary Clinton is right behind him, at 6 point 6 million. McCain trails the Democrats, at about 3 million.

Continue reading "Obama Attacks Wall Street While Taking Their Money" »

5:25 PM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Yet Another Poll Shows No Wright Damage to Obama

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) hasn't been hurt by the controversy over his former pastor's statements, according to a Pew Research Center poll. All Things Considered's Robert Siegel talks with Pew Director Andrew Kohut about Obama, the economy and some good news for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

"More positive for McCain, however, is that a growing proportion of Republican voters say that the GOP will solidly unite behind the Arizona senator; 64% express that view currently, up from 58% in late February. Along with this expression of increased partisan unity, the survey finds that by a considerable margin (52%-37%), independent voters say that if McCain is elected, he will take the country in a different direction rather than continuing Bush's policies."

The survey shows Obama with a solid 10-point lead over Clinton, and a 6-point lead over McCain in the fall general election.

5:05 PM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post

 

Some Democrats Actually Ask, "What About Gore?"

You had to know that this idea would pick up a bit of steam, considering the current standoff between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama and the nasty way the campaigns are attacking each other.

Some Democrats and pundits are now asking "What about Al Gore?"

Don't panic. Gore didn't suggest the idea, and he has given no hint of any kind that he's interested in running again. But some Dems, desperate for a way out of the current impasse, are looking longingly at the former vice president, best-selling author, Academy Award recipient and Nobel Peace Prize winner.

The other day Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney, when pressed by a reporter for a way out of the Clinton-Obama drama, said yes, Gore would be one way. And now Time magazine columnist Joe Klein -- who admits that it's silly season in American presidential problems -- writes "Is Al Gore the answer?"

"Pish-tosh, you say, and you're probably right. But let's play a little. Let's say the elders of the Democratic Party decide, when the primaries end, that neither Obama nor Clinton is viable. Let's also assume -- and this may be a real stretch -- that such elders are strong and smart enough to act. All they'd have to do would be to convince a significant fraction of their superdelegate friends, maybe fewer than 100, to announce that they were taking a pass on the first ballot at the Denver convention, which would deny the 2,025 votes necessary to Obama or Clinton. What if they then approached Gore and asked him to be the nominee, for the good of the party -- and suggested that he take Obama as his running mate? Of course, Obama would have to be a party to the deal and bring his 1,900 or so delegates along."

He admits the Democratic Party would have to be "monumentally desperate" by June, but "this has been an exceptionally 'silly" year."

Gore again? Democrats, would you want him to be your nominee? Republicans, would you want to run against him again? Independents, what about you?
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Update: Gore will be on CBS's 60 Minutes this weekend talking about global warming. Here he is talking to Lesley Stahl about prominent politicans who still don't believe in global warming:

"You're talking about Dick Cheney. I think that those people are in such a tiny, tiny minority now with their point of view, they???re almost like the ones who still believe that the moon landing was staged in a movie lot in Arizona and those who believe the world is flat. ... That demeans them a little bit, but it's not that far off."

4:10 PM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Goes After McCain on Economy, Ignores Obama

Sen. Hillary Clinton gave Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain a few jabs today on his economic plans, but ignored the fact that her rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Barack Obama, also gave a major economic speech.

"I read the speech that Senator McCain gave the other day that set forth his plan, said Clinton. "It said virtually nothing to ease the credit crisis or the housing crisis. It seems like if the phone were ringing he would just let it ring and ring.

"We've had enough of a president who didn't know enough about economics, and didn't do enough for the middle class. I don't think we can afford four more years," Clinton added.

CBS News notes that Clinton, who was speaking at Wake Forest College in North Carolina, "has avoided any direct mention of Obama, perhaps in light of news stories pointing to a potential divide in the party as a result of an already highly contentious and drawn out nomination process."

In his speech at historic Cooper Union in New York, Obama called for major changes in the way the government regulates the financial industry, and called for a second stimulus package to boost the economy.

3:42 PM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Mitt and McCain: Rivals Reunite in Utah

John McCain trolled for money and votes in Utah today, which is sometimes described as the most nation's most Republican state. But he needed two of the state's favorite sons to make sure he got the reception the presumed Republican presidential nominee would expect.

Former rival Mitt Romney and Republican Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr., had McCain's back, or, well, his sides at least, during a fundraising appearance and news conference. Romney and Huntsman framed McCain, like bodyguards. Utah has been hostile territory for McCain.

Romney won nearly 90 percent of the Utah GOP primary vote Super Tuesday. McCain scored only 5 percent, his worst primary showing. Romney raised more than $6 million in Utah. McCain raised only about $180,000, before today's fundraiser.

Romney is Mormon as are 60 percent of Utahns. McCain's mother publicly blamed Mormons for the scandal involving Salt Lake City's bid for the 2002 Olympics. And some Utahns blame McCain, in part, for the beloved Romney's exit from the 2008 campaign.

So, McCain needs all the help he can get in Utah, despite its strong Republican roots.

"This is our candidate and he needs to be President," Romney told reporters in referring to McCain. "When it comes time to get around our nominee, we do it."

"We are united," McCain declared.

Incidentally, both Romney and Governor Huntsman are mentioned by pundits as possible running mates for McCain, who said both are qualified but wouldn't say whether either is on his short list.

All that was missing from the Republican presidential lovefest in Utah today was the singing of the chorus to a popular Mormon hymn: "All is well. All is well."

-- Howard Berkes

2:31 PM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

House Judiciary Committee Wants Siegelman to Testify

The Associated Press reports that the House Judiciary Committee has asked the Justice Department to temporarily release former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman from prison to testify before Congress in early May about possible political influence over his prosecution.

"A spokeswoman for the committee said Thursday that Siegelman, who is serving more than seven years in a Louisiana prison, would travel to Washington under guard of the U.S. Marshals Service. She said Committee Chairman John Conyers, a Michigan Democrat, wants to hear directly from Siegelman because lawmakers are having trouble getting information elsewhere, including from the Justice Department."

The Siegelman story, which has been bubbling on the Internet for several months, drew more attention after CBS's 60 Minutes did an interview with Jill Simpson, the Republican lawyer who's testified that Alabama Republicans often chattered about how the Justice Department and local U.S. attorneys would take Siegelman down. (Siegelman received an seven-year sentence on corruption charges.) 60 Minutes alleges that the prosecution case was full of holes.

Atlanta Journal-Constitution columnist Cynthia Tucker wrote earlier this month that "maybe Siegleman deserves every month of his 88-month sentence." But, she adds, "A troubling trail of evidence suggests that Karl Rove and other GOP operatives intervened to ensure that Siegelman -- who stood a good chance of winning a second term as governor of Alabama in 2006 -- would go to prison instead of back to the state Capitol."

She points out that "Dozens of former state attorneys general, Democrats and Republicans, have urged Congress to investigate the Siegelman prosecution."

But K. Whitmire of the Birmingham Weekly wrote last year that the local media view the case differently than their national counterpart. " ... I'd argue that the reason for the local media's incredulity [about the charges of a conspiracy against Siegelman] is that our memories stretch back further - to when Siegelman's administration collapsed after a steady succession of scandals, to when Siegelman's administration tried to squelch the bad press by obstructing reporters' access to public records, to when the governor's fortunes floundered because he couldn't govern as well as he could campaign."

1:40 PM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Top Clinton Backers Threaten Speaker Pelosi

Twenty of Hillary Clinton's top fundraisers Wednesday threatened Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi that they might withdraw their funds from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee if she didn't stop pushing the idea that Democratic superdelegates "should back the candidate with the most pledged delegates" The Washington Post reports that they urged her to respect the right of those delegates to back whomever they choose at the end of the primary season.

Roll Call reports that the "donors also pointedly noted their own contributions to the DCCC. 'We have been strong supporters of the DCCC. We therefore urge you to clarify your position on super-delegates and reflect in your comments a more open view to the optional independent actions of each of the delegates at the National Convention in August.'"

The New York Daily News reports that the move "stunned" senior Democrats "particularly because at least eight of the letter's authors have not donated to the DCCC since Pelosi became speaker. '[Clinton] looks desperate,' said one. "There is no way they should have threatened to do this. It is terrible. ... I am sure Obama is raising money off of it already.' "

Pelosi did not back down from her position, however, issuing a statement late last night through her spokesman Brendan Daly.

"Speaker Pelosi is confident that superdelegates will choose between Senators Clinton or Obama -- our two strong candidates -- before the convention in August," Daly said. "That choice will be based on many considerations, including respecting the decisions of millions of Americans who have voted in primaries and participated in caucuses. The Speaker believes it would do great harm to the Democratic Party if superdelegates are perceived to overturn the will of the voters. This has been her position throughout this primary season, regardless of who was ahead at any particular point in delegates or votes."

12:52 PM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (17) | e-mail post

 

Kids Don't Seem Interested in Leadership Roles

The idea of any boy or girl growing up to be president doesn't seem to hold that much interest to the most recent generation of young Americans.

The Washington Post reports that a new nationwide survey of girls and boys found that a majority of them have little or no interest with achieving leadership roles when they become adults, ranking "being a leader" behind other goals such as "fitting in," "making a lot of money" and "helping animals or the environment."

The study, which was commissioned by the Girl Scouts of America and released today, shows that "three-quarters of African American girls and boys and Hispanic girls surveyed already identify themselves as leaders, a much larger group than white youths, about half of whom think of themselves this way."

"The youths defined leaders as people who prize collaboration, stand up for their beliefs and values, and try to improve society. Girls in particular endorsed these approaches, although a majority of boys did, as well. Yet when asked in focus groups about leadership styles among adults, what they described was traditional top-down management."

Experts say that the survey of 2,475 girls and 1,514 boys ages 8- to 17-year olds shows "a disconnect between what they aspire to and what is."

"The millennial generation has ambivalent, even negative, feelings about formal leadership," said Peter Levine, director of a nonpartisan research center at the University of Maryland that studies young people and civic involvement. "They prefer horizontal leadership in which everyone's a leader."

11:30 AM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

McCain Quietly Challenges Bush Legacy in Iraq

As a British commentator said last week when a John McCain oped appeared in the Financial Times, it was something that could have been written by John Kerry in 2004. Sen. John McCain's speech in Los Angeles yesterday repeated his themes of consulting with allies before going to war and that the U.S. can't do what it wants, when it wants, regardless of how powerful it is.

"When we believe international action is necessary, whether military, economic or diplomatic, we will try to persuade our friends that we are right. But we in return must be willing to be persuaded by them," he said.

As NPR's Steve Inskeep and Juan Williams discussed this morning, McCain may support the war in Iraq, but he is disowning some of the policies that led to it. Without directly criticizing President Bush, McCain is suggesting a more collaborative approach with American allies.

McCain mentioned several presidents he respected yesterday, but did not mention Bush -- as Williams said, it was like "the dog that didn't bark."

But perhaps the most interesting aspect of the speech was why he gave it at all. Some political commentators are wondering why McCain is giving major speeches right now when the media are so focused on the battle between his Democratic rivals.

Part of the explanation may be where he gave the speech - in Los Angeles. McCain very much believes he can be competitive in California - a state with a moderate Republican governor with positions very similar to McCain's. By focusing on a more collaborative approach in the world, and by talking about the need to pay attention to global warming concerns, McCain was making a strong case to Californians.
----
Update: Two conservative bloggers at NRO's The Corner give McCain's speech a loud "Harrumph!"

10:28 AM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Debate Over Pastor Doesn't Hurt Obama in Polls

While Sen. Barack Obama's relationship with his controversial former pastor Jeremiah Wright is drawing a lot of attention in the media, it doesn't seem to be hurting him in either his battle against rival Sen. Hillary Clinton, or -- if he wins the Democratic nomination -- against Republican nominee Sen. John McCain. That's the take away from a new Wall Street Journal-NBC poll released Wednesday.

The latest survey has the Democratic rivals in a dead heat, each with 45% support from registered Democratic voters. It's a slight improvement for Sen. Obama - two weeks ago, a WSJ-NBC poll had Clinton leading 47% to 43%.

Obama has a two-point lead over McCain - another dead heat. He has lost some support among Republicans, but continues to lead McCain by a comfortable margin with independents.

"Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC polls with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, called the latest poll a 'myth-buster' that showed the pastor controversy is 'not the beginning of the end for the Obama campaign.' "

But the poll does show that the battle between the two Democrats is taking its toll, and it appears to be hitting Clinton harder than Obama. For instance, she is viewed more negatively than positively by women voters for the first time, and her lead among white voters shrank from 50% to 39% to 49% to 41% -- which, as the Journal notes "seems to refute widespread speculation -- and fears among Sen. Obama's backers -- that he would lose white support for his bid to be the nation's first African-American president over the controversy surrounding his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. of Chicago."

Chuck Todd, of MSNBC's First Read offers a more detailed breakdown of the poll numbers and adds this interesting comment:

"Considering the doom-and-gloom some predicted for Obama with regard to the Wright controversy, the overall tenor of the electorate appears to still be favorable for him. He's mortal, but he's survived ... for now. It's not clear whether he'd be this resilient if another controversy exploded as big as Wright, but it appears that voters are giving him the benefit of doubt. There's lots of evidence inside these numbers that voters still would like to know more about Obama, and that is both an opportunity and a potential obstacle."

9:15 AM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Democrats Increasingly Fear Lasting Harm For Fall

Democrats are increasingly worried that the "two-way suicide pact" (as one GOP strategist described it) "serves only to write the script for Republican ads in the fall and to give John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, a head start in framing his candidacy."

The Boston Globe reports that Democrats feel it's very different from 90 days ago when everyone was saying "Isn't it wonderful that we have two great candidates." The increasingly bitterness of the campaign is beginning to affect supporters on both sides.

A Gallup poll Wednesday showed that 28% of those who support Sen. Hillary Clinton says they will vote for Republican nominee Sen. John McCain rather than Sen. Barack Obama, while 19 percent of Obama supporters say the same thing about not voting for Clinton.

Continue reading "Democrats Increasingly Fear Lasting Harm For Fall" »

8:28 AM ET | 03-27-2008 | permalink | comments (16) | e-mail post

 

How Should A Candidate's Offspring Be Handled?

When Butler University student Evan Strange asked Chelsea Clinton the about the "L-word" (Monica Lewinsky) he raised an interesting issue: how should a candidate's offspring be handled by both the public and the media?

Few people would question the notion that a candidate's children are off-limits if those children are minors (such as in Barack Obama's case). But what about "a 28-year-old, Stanford- and Oxford-educated hedge fund investment analyst" -- like Chelsea Clinton -- who has crossed into the no-woman's land of surrogate for her mother?

"And though she's likely a boring interview since she rarely strays from her talking points, as Comrade Marinucci told us, recalling Chelsea's visit to Oakland's Mills College, why should she still be shielded from reporters?" writes San Francisco Chronicle blogger Joe Garofoli. "Sally Quinn told CBS News Wednesday: 'I don't understand why the press is being suckered like this.' "

It's gone so far that Wednesday afternoon an MSNBC news anchor just asked correspondent Ron Allen if the Butler student had apologized yet to Chelsea for asking the question. Then again, maybe MSNBC is trying hard to play nice, as they have a history of Shustering the Clinton family. For his part, Strange told CBS News Wednesday that he was just trying to elicit "what makes Hillary so strong."

If your response to this episode is: "Lay off! Chelsea's not the candidate." Then why is she a surrogate on the campaign trail? If you don't want her exposed to reporters, then have her do something behind the scenes. Stick to fund-raisers. Totally fine. But if Chelsea is going to accept the campaign putting her in public settings, then she should be prepared to hear whatever the unwashed ask, no matter how inartful.

What's your take? If Chelsea is out shilling for her mom, should she be subject to questioning like any other Clinton stand-in? Or is she off-limits because of her relationship to the candidate?

7:45 PM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Tenn. Gov Urges Superdelegate Primary

Many Democrats worry that the lengthy contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will make it harder for the party come November's general election. Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen has a solution -- hold a primary for the superdelegates in June.

His suggestion comes as more Democrats express unease with the increasingly personal mudslinging between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton.

He tells Day by Day's Madeleine Brand that the Democratic National Committee will have to organize the primary. "My thought would be that it would just be a business-like meeting. Have it some place that's easily accessible."

The powers-that-be inside the beltway (Washington) don't like it, but it's been getting a much more positive reception in the rest of the country.

"I think they look at it and say it's a common-sense idea ... Let's not just go on auto-pilot. Let's steer this thing," says Bredesen. He added that Sen. Barack Obama has indicated interest in the issue.

6:52 PM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Obama "Muslim" Rumors Spread to Delaware Class

You would think that with all the attention that's been paid to the relationship between Barack Obama and his controversial pastor, Jeremiah Wright, that most people would realize that the rumors circulating on the Internet that he's a Muslim aren't true.

Apparently not. Even worse, it appears to be a teacher spreading the smears this time.

DelawareOnline reports that a Delaware state human relations commission is investigating allegations that a fifth-grade teacher at Lord Baltimore Elementary School in Indian River told her class she wouldn't vote for Barack Obama because he is a Muslim and "that she is a Republican and that Obama 'believes in different things and is scary.' "

The teacher also allegedly said that Obama "does not swear on the Bible or pledge allegiance to the flag."

Fifth grade, yet.

Obama has had to fight these rumors, usually circulated by far-right-wing web sites, that he is a Muslim "bent on destroying the United States."

Continue reading "Obama "Muslim" Rumors Spread to Delaware Class" »

6:10 PM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Camp Circulates Article that Accuses McPeak of Being Anti-Semitic

James Fallows of theAtlantic.com is pretty upset with the Clinton campaign for distributing a piece from the ultra-conservative American Spectator that accuses former Gen. Merrill "Tony" McPeak, of being an anti-Semite, and a drunk.

The magazine makes this anti-Semite allegation because McPeak -- who garnered attention this week for making a comment that seemed to compare President Bill Clinton to Joseph McCarthy (after Clinton made remarks that McPeak felt questioned Barack Obama's patriotism) -- thinks that Israel should withdraw to its 1967 borders. (Which, as his fellow Atlantic blogger Marc Ambinder notes, "if advocating the pre '67 border map makes one an anti-Semite, just about every iteration of the U.S. government since 1967 would qualify."

I doubt that the author of the hit job ever bothered to speak with or interview McPeak. I have done so many times, during and after his days as Air Force chief of staff (which he was during the first Gulf War). People can agree or disagree with McPeak's foreign policy or his record at the Pentagon -- but that's not what we're talking about here. Any attempt to fish out a quote that will banish him as a bigot is exactly as fair and accurate as depicting Bill Clinton as being personally a racist based on his "fairy tale" and "Jesse Jackson" comments around the time of the South Carolina primary. I say this having heard McPeak lay out his views, starting while the Gulf War was underway 17 years ago, about how to maintain general stability, US interests, and Israeli security in the Middle East.

As Fallows notes, it's also highly ironic for anyone associated with the Clinton campaign to circulate anything from the Spectator. In the 90s, the magazine had its anti-everything Clinton "Arkansas Project," largely funded by conservative billionaire Richard Scaife. (Yes, we did mention him earlier post today-- he owns the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, to which Sen. Clinton gave her comments about Barack Obama and Jeremiah Wright. Christopher Orr of The New Republic wonders if this means that Clinton has joined the vast right-wing conspiracy.)

Shmuel Rosner of Ha'aretz offers an interesting, and calmer view of both the article and of McPeak.

4:21 PM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Obama Utah Coup Less Likely; McCain Up in Polls

John McCain stops in Utah Thursday to raise money in an overwhelmingly Republican state that hasn't been entirely friendly to the presumptive Republican nominee.

As we noted March 7 (2008 Headline: Utah Goes for Obama?!?!), it once looked like Democrat Barack Obama would challenge McCain in a November election match-up in Utah. A March poll by the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University had McCain leading Obama by just 10 points in a hypothetical presidential contest

Another March survey by the Deseret Morning News/KSL TV had McCain with just 30 per cent support among those polled. That's a political oddity in a state where some local Democratic candidates don't even pretend they can win and the entire Senate Democratic caucus could meet in a Starbucks and still leave plenty of empty seats.

Why wasn't John McCain embraced more enthusiastically? Well, he was one of the fiercest critics of federal spending for Salt Lake City's cherished 2002 Winter Olympics. And he's perceived as a spoiler in Mitt Romney's failed bid for the Republican nomination.

Continue reading "Obama Utah Coup Less Likely; McCain Up in Polls" »

2:20 PM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

The Campaign Issue That Dare Not Speak Its Name

Quick, can you name the one issue that is key to the future of every American that sends most politicians (Including the current presidential contenders) fleeing in terror?

Yes, its social security. As The Associated Press reports "Trustees for the government's two biggest benefit programs warned that Social Security and Medicare were facing 'enormous challenges,' with the threat to Medicare's solvency far more severe." The trustees said unless something is done, the resources in the Social Security trust fund would be depleted by 2041. The reserves in the Medicare trust fund that pays hospital benefits were projected to be wiped out by 2019 - just a little over ten years from now.

Yet Senators Obama, Clinton and McCain have reacted to this alarming news with overwhelming ... silence for the most part. As the Los Angeles Times reports they all "sidestepped the issue."

"Everybody knows that there are a couple of 800-pound gorillas under the rug, but nobody wants to talk about them because that is not the route to the Oval Office," said economist Robert D. Reischauer, president of the Urban Institute public policy center. "The situation is unsustainable in the long run, but the long run is in the future, and our political system operates very much in the present."

One reason for this "see no evil" approach to the issue is that no matter how you try and fix it, raising taxes are going to have to be part of the situation. And a politician would rather chew off his or her leg than say "raise taxes."

"You can't tell people, 'I'll never change Social Security and Medicare,' or 'I'll never raise taxes,' " said David M. Walker, former head of the congressional Government Accountability Office and a leading advocate of reforming entitlements. "If you take things off the table, it significantly undercuts the ability to get a deal."

Actually, Obama did say something on the issue, but it was a one-paragraph e-mailed statement that blamed the problem on "Washington's failure to overcome the special interests and pass health care reform that expands coverage and lower costs." While Obama said Medicare could be kept solvent by investing in "proven measures to improve the health of all Americans and reduce health care cost across the economy" he said nothing about the problem with Social Security.

1:20 PM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Trip Official Says Bosnia Was Dangerous

Last night we received the following comment from retired Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, currently the director of the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky. In 2000 during the Clinton presidency, he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Ambassador/Special Negotiator responsible for conflicts in Eurasia and Co-Chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group. He served both the Clinton and Bush administrations.:

I accompanied the First Lady on this trip while serving as the Director for Southern Europe at the State Department. We had been warned shortly before landing in Bosnia of security concerns on the ground (although I do not recall whether the possible threat was snipers). Mrs. Clinton and her daughter were moved to the C-17's cockpit, it was suggested that staff sit on their flak jackets and our aircraft did conduct a rapid and sharp descent to land at Tuzla Air Base.

On the ground the 1st Armored Division's extraordinary security measures were readily visible, including strategically placed armored vehicles and Apache attack helicopters hovering just above the airfield to ensure our protection. While a greeting ceremony did take place on the tarmac, my recollection is that it was briefer than had been originally planned.

Continue reading "Clinton Trip Official Says Bosnia Was Dangerous" »

12:10 PM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Attacks Obama and Wright Relationship

Sen. Hillary Clinton went full bore into the controversy over the relationship between Sen. Barack Obama and his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Speaking to an editorial board at the Pittsburgh Tribune Review, she said that she would have quit Wright's church over some of his comments. "He would not have been my pastor," said Clinton.

She said: "We don't have a choice when it comes to our relatives. We have a choice when it comes to our pastors and the churches we attend. Everyone will have to decide these matters for themselves. They are obviously very personal matters." She added that if Mr Wright had been her pastor, "the choice would be clear"

But Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo feels that Clinton mentioning Wright means the Wright scandal is nearing its end as an effective weapon against Obama. (For instance, the conservative Wrightapalooza on Fox News is beginning to have a tired air about it -- Chris Wallace of FoxNews even criticized his fellow right-wing pundits for 'Obama bashing '.) When a politician has to bring up a problem, he writes, it means the air is coming out of it in the media. Marshall said he knew the minute that Republicans started talking about Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky, for instance, the worst was over and Clinton was home free.

Speaking of Ms. Lewinsky, Top of Ticket writes that Donna Brazile -- an uncommitted superdelegate of the Democratic National Convention and one of television's few black, female political pundits -- made an intriguing point about Clinton's attacks on Wright on CNN. "In short, Brazile provided a pointed reminder that some voters (African Americans, in particular, we would think) might recall that Wright did not turn on Clinton's husband during an hour of need for him." (Remember that photo of Wright shaking hands with President Clinton at prayer breakfast held during his Lewinsky problems?)

"Brazile's none-too-subtle point: There's a potential downside to turning away, with nary a forgiving nod, from those who once stood by you."

Brazile continued speaking on the subject Wednesday morning, telling ABC's Good Morning America that she felt Clinton had gone too far with her comments.

Interestingly, the paper with which she did the interview, the Tribune-Review, is owned by Richard Mellon Scaife, a long time foe of the Clintons and part of what Sen. Clinton once described as a "vast right-wing conspiracy." The paper ran stories for year that indicted the Clintons were somehow involved in the death of White House counsel Vince Foster, who committed suicide in July of 1993.

8:58 AM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post

 

Obama Related to Six Presidents, Clinton to Madonna

Ah, geneology.

We already know that Illinois Senator Barack Obama and Vice President Dick Cheney are distantly related. But now the Daily Telegraph reports that the New England Historic Genealogical Society says that Barack Obama is related to someone he might find a bit more palatable - actor Brad Pitt. But that's not the best of it - the society says that Obama is also distantly related through his mother to six U.S. presidents -- from both sides of the aisle. (One of those presidents is George W. Bush, who is said to be a 10th cousin.)

And to top it all off, Obama is related to one of the greatest statesmen of all time, Winston Churchill.

How's that for a family tree?

"His kinships are across the political spectrum," said Christopher Child, a genealogist who traced the family histories of US politicians for the three-year long project.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has a pretty good one too, although from more of an entertainment angle. Clinton, who is of French-Canadian descent on her mother's side, has familial ties to the singers Madonna, Celine Dion and Alanis Morissette, as well as the author Jack Kerouac. (Well, Clinton is always "On the Road" these days, right?)

And speaking of Brad Pitt. Clinton is distantly related to his significant other, actress and humanitarian Angelina Jolie.

The society said it had a harder time tracing the family tree of Sen. John McCain because records on his relatives were not as complete as those for Clinton and Obama.

8:15 AM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink | comments (16) | e-mail post

 

Why a Poll's "Margin of Error" Really Matters

This is a really informative piece about polling and why things like "the margin of error" really matter.

Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com looks at the Gallup Daily Tracking poll and shows that despite all the news of the past six weeks - Obama's relationship with Jeremiah Wright, the Michigan and Florida problems and Clinton's misspeaking on Bosnia, basically nothing has changed in the polls.

Over the past six weeks, the Gallup Daily Tracking poll shows that Obama leads Clinton 46% to 45% - a statistical dead heat. But what about that day last week when Clinton lead Obama 49% to 42%? Or early March when Obama lead 50% to 42%?

Remember that margin of error thing?

"As some of you may remember, most political surveys (including Gallup) calculate the margin of error using a 95% confidence level. That assumption means that we should expect results slightly outside the margin of error for one poll in twenty."

Ah, but there is more to it than that. Blumenthal does a great job of comparing different polls, their variations and results, and how it all works. It's really worth a read.

The take away? Since Super Tuesday, it really is a statistical dead heat and anything else is, as Blumenthal describes it, random noise.

Update: It might be close nationally, but it's not close in Pennsylvania or North Carolina. Clinton leads Obama by double-digits in most Keystone State polls. But a new Public Policy Polling poll shows Obama with a 21-point lead in North Carolina, 55% to 34%. Apparently his speech on the war in Fayetteville last week got a lot of coverage and helped him, particularly with white voters.

The pollsters interviewed 673 likely Democratic voters, and the polls margin of error was +/- 3.8 percent.

5:10 PM ET | 03-25-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Nancy Reagan Endorses Sen. John McCain

It isn't a big endorsement, but it could help him with some conservatives.

Nancy Regan, the wife of the late President Ronald Reagan, has endorsed Sen. John McCain's bid for the presidency.

"John McCain has been a good friend for over thirty years," Reagan says in a statement. "My husband and I first came to know him as a returning Vietnam War POW, and were impressed by the courage he had shown through his terrible ordeal. I believe John's record and experience have prepared him well to be our next president."

Well, not maybe all of those 30 years. McCain wrote in his memoirs that he and Nancy became estranged after his ex-wife Carol went to work as Reagan's personal assistant. But NPR's Scott Horsley e-mails that Reagan and McCain have reconciled and that the former Carol McCain has generally been politically supportive of her ex-husband, refusing requests from political opponents to speak out against him.

Reagan said she normally doesn't endorse the candidate until after the convention, but it was obvious that McCain was the Republican Party's nominee.

McCain aides say that McCain will travel to California to get Reagan's blessing.

3:58 PM ET | 03-25-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Adviser: Not Letting MI, FL Votes Count Insulting

Michigan and Florida have certainly not gone away as campaign issues, and the Clinton camp brought them up in their daily "state of the race" conference call. Howard Wolfson, the campaign's communications director said not allowing the votes of Michigan and Florida amounts to "slapping these people in the face."

Neither Michigan or Florida look headed towards "do-overs", so it's important to the Clinton campaign to push for the votes to be counted. And the Clinton camp points the finger squarely at the Obama campaign for "sabotaging" any chance of a revote. "Sen. Obama is turning the Audacity of Hope into the audacity of nope," ... said Phil Singer, a spokesman for the Clinton campaign.

The Obama campaign argues that certain complications in a re-vote in Michigan or Florida have slowed the process, and that they are open to finding a compromise. But the Clinton campaign says that is nonsense.

But there seems to be a growing sense that with the remote chance of revotes in the two states, and the Democratic National Committee sticking to its guns about the rules, the Clinton camp may be losing any chance of getting any delegates from the states. Adam C. Smith, The St. Petersburg (Florida) Times Political Editor wrote Monday it's time for the Clinton camp to stop blaming Obama and sit down to negotiations with the other side.

3:38 PM ET | 03-25-2008 | permalink | comments (17) | e-mail post

 

The Year of Being Shocked at Opponents' Comments

Every now and then you read a piece that just makes you say 'Gee, I wish I had written that." Peter Baker has one today in the Washington Post's The Trail blog, "The Campaign Season of Taking Offense."

While the Democratic primary started out talking about substantive issues most of the time, these issues too often get occasional mention while the main story had become how offended the Clinton or Obama campaigns are at the statements of various surrogates, aides, associates, the candidates themselves, their pastors, their comedians, etc. The daily conference calls from both camps all too often deteriorated into even more name calling about how nasty the other side had been (oh, and never mind what the folks on our side said, that was a completely different matter).

Baker puts it this way:

"Somehow an election campaign that in theory is centered on the Big Issues of our day, such as war and recession, instead has turned into a sticks-and-stones contest. Instead of pressing each other on how they would fix health care or fight terrorism, the candidates are busy crying gotcha every time someone on the other side says something offensive or even something that could be perceived as offensive. And the shock, shock over the things being said on the campaign trail isn't even over what the candidates themselves are saying, but what their supporters are saying."

He calls this year's Democratic election campaign the "Apology Tour." He notes that politics always involves name-calling but it seems to be reaching a fever pitch this year. "The eager embrace of victimhood may seem like a questionable campaign tactic, but everyone wants to keep the other camp on the defensive, portraying opponents as supposed purveyors of politics as usual," writes Baker

And it's not just politicians that are being asked to apologize. If a candidate believes the media is swaying too much in one direction or another, the hue and cry is raised. Only this morning, during a conference call with the Clinton campaign about Michigan and Florida, one member of the media who was pushing too hard (apparently) about who was really responsible for the problem was accused of bias. "Let's drop the double standards, sir," he was told by a Clinton official. (Obama officials can be snippy too.)

The only person who can really be happy with all of this is Sen. John McCain.

PS: All Things Considered has a great piece about the care and feeding of surrogates asked to appear on behalf of candidates. Kevin Maddox, former press secretary for Republican Mitt Romney's campaign, put it best when he said that surrogates get in trouble when they forget that they are not pundits being asked to comment on the campaign, but are being asked to represent the candidate.

2:00 PM ET | 03-25-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Obama Posts Taxes Online, Wants Clinton To Do Same

Senator Barack Obama Tuesday posted his complete tax returns for 2000-2006 online at his campaign site. The returns include all schedules. The Obama campaign urged Senator Clinton to join Obama in making her returns public.

Full disclosure on Senator Clinton's part is especially important because she recently loaned $5 million to her campaign, shortly after revelations surfaced that her husband was to receive a $20 million payout from Yucaipa, a supermarket holding company that invests in tax shelters in the Cayman Islands ...

"Senator Clinton recently claimed that she's 'the most transparent figure in public life,' yet she's dragging her feet in releasing something as basic as her annual tax returns," said Obama Communications Director Robert Gibbs. "Senator Clinton can't claim to be vetted until she allows the public the opportunity to see her finances -- particularly with respect to any investment in tax shelters."

Earlier this month, Clinton campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson said she would release her taxes "on or around April 15."

11:49 AM ET | 03-25-2008 | permalink | comments (16) | e-mail post

 

Puerto Rico Moves Up Primary to June 1

In a Democratic presidential contest where it looks like every delegate will count, the Democratic Party on Monday approved Puerto Rico's proposal to scrap its caucus and hold a presidential primary on June 1.

The Associated Press reports that there are 55 delegates at stake - only Indiana, North Carolina and Pennsylvania offer a bigger take. In the past, Puerto Rico held caucuses, but P.R. Democratic Chairman Roberto Prats says that reflected the fact that the Democratic nominee had already been decided by that time. But now Puerto Ricans have a chance to influence the outcome.

"Now it's different," Prats told the Democratic National Committee's rules panel in a conference call. "This is the first time in decades that Puerto Rico will be participating in an event of this magnitude."

Imagine if it all came down to Puerto Rico to decide the final pledged delegate outcome.

10:49 AM ET | 03-25-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Carville Sticks By His Judas Remark About Richardson

Democratic strategist James Carville said he would not back away or apologize for his comment comparing New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson to Judas for his "betrayal" of Hillary Clinton when he announced his support for Barack Obama.

"I was quoted accurately and in context, and I was glad to give the quote and I was glad I gave it," Carville told the New York Times. "I'm not apologizing, I'm not resigning, I'm not doing anything."

Interestingly, Chris Reed at the San Diego Union-Tribune's SignOnSanDiego said he found Carville's comment amusing. But he noted that while Richardson may not be of much help to Sen. Clinton at the moment, he has helped President Clinton in particular at difficult moments. He points to a CNN story from 1998 about how Whitewater Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr issued subpoenas for documents to then-U.S. Ambassador Bill Richardson and the entire U.S. mission because Richardson had offered a certain young intern named Monica Lewinsky a job as a junior assistant doing public outreach and cabinet agency assignments.

Top of the Ticket at the Los Angeles Times said it like the remark about the Judas comment from political strategist former Bush adviser-now-critic Matthew Dowd on "Good Morning America." Dowd had this to say: "Probably fortunate for Bill Richardson it wasn't Fourth of July because he'd probably be Benedict Arnold today."

Carville swears he's not doing any work for the Clintons. But his claims took a bit of beating in February, when a room full of nosy Canadian journalists noticed that he left his personal itinerary open in full view of everyone in the room. And Adam Radwanski of the Globe and Mail writes, "Now, maybe there's some other explanation for it. But personally, if I'd been vigorously denying a role in Hillary Clinton's campaign (beyond financial contributions), I'd probably be especially protective of that itinerary if its front page referred to participating in an 'HRC strategy call.' "

Maybe he was just dropping by to say hello.

10:00 AM ET | 03-25-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Obama Hangs Much of Candidacy on Chicago Speech

It was the first anti-war speech in Chicago, held before the war even started. On Oct. 2, 2002, then Illinois state senator Barack Obama stood in front of a crowd at the Federal Plaza and said Saddam Hussein was a butcher but that he was not an imminent threat to the U.S. He added that going to war in Iraq was a dumb idea. And he predicted a U.S. occupation of undetermined cost, length and consequences.

And NPR's Don Gonyea reports that almost no one noticed.

Bill Glauber, who covered the rally for the Chicago Tribune, refers to himself as the guy who didn't quote Obama. He said he was there to see what the Rev. Jesse Jackson was going to say. He didn't even mention Obama -- then a little known political figure in Chicago -- in his story.

There is some disagreement from organizers over how important the speech was at the time. Marilyn Katz, one of the event's organizers, recalls the audience's reaction. "The crowd was pretty much transfixed," she said. But Juan Andrade Jr., president of the United States Hispanic Leadership Institute said there was nothing special about the speech. "We were just glad that he was one of those who was willing to step up at a time when very few people seemed to be willing to do that."

His rival Sen. Hillary Clinton dismisses Obama's early opposition to the war, saying that "all he did was give a speech." Obama counters that the speech demonstrated his sound judgment, and that it showed the kind of political courage a president needs.

In an age of YouTube there is no video of the speech. There are only snippets of audio. The Obama campaign has had to reenact portions of the speech in order to use in in campaign ads. But he did give it, and Obama benefitted from word-or-mouth about the speech from the educated, liberal, mostly white crowd that attended the rally in his run for the Senate in 2004.

8:10 AM ET | 03-25-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Calls For Federal Steps in Housing Crisis

Sen. Hillary Clinton Monday called for more federal intervention to to help Americans with the ongoing housing and credit crisis. NPR's Scott Horsley reports that Clinton is calling for a more aggressive plan wherein the government would step in to buy at-risk mortgages.

The Boston Globe reports that she cast the financial crisis as a "fresh test of her leadership ability."

"We need a president who is ready on day one to be commander-in-chief of our economy," Clinton said, echoing language she has used to question Democratic rival Barack Obama's fitness to handle international and military crises.

"The New York Senator, who a year ago proposed a moratorium on mortgage foreclosures and more recently a five-year freeze on interest rates, acknowledged that such action could be described as a bailout. But she cast her proposal as a populist parallel to last week's relief for investment banker Bear Stearns by the Federal Reserve, saying 'it's now time for equally aggressive action to help families avoid foreclosure.' "

Her plan would create a $30 billion stimulus that would help homeowners buy and resell foreclosed homes or turn them into apartments, as well as help cities and towns with lost taxes.

The Obama campaign said that Clinton's call for a "working group" comprised of financial bigwigs like Paul Volcker, Robert Rubin, and Alan Greenspan to study a proposal to restructure risky mortgages resembles one that Obama made almost a year ago. But his original proposal called for a much more diverse group "not just some of the same people who helped to create these problems," the campaign said in an e-mail.

7:30 AM ET | 03-25-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Campaign Uses Comments to Raise Funds

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, the only thing worse than raising political funds is not raising political funds at all.

So the Clinton camp today seized the opportunity presented to it over the past couple of days by Obama supporters to raise money from supporters. The campaign sent out an e-mail from campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe late this afternoon to supporters (and to the media) using the comments of Retired Gen. Merrill "Tony" McPeak (who compared Bill Clinton to Sen. Joe McCarthy) to ask the faithful to donate.

Here is just a small sample of the words they have used to describe Hillary and her campaign: "disingenuous," "divisive," "untruthful," "dishonest," and much more.

Well I'm not going to stand for it, and neither should you. There's no better way to fight back than to show your support for our campaign in the face of these attacks.

No comments about the Judas comparison to Bill Richardson.

8:23 PM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Obama Girl Returns With a New Video

She's b-a-a-a-c-c-c-c-k-k-k-k.

And Obama Girl -- the totally manufactured supporter of Sen. Barack Obama named Amber Lee Ettinger -- wants Hillary gone.

"And although Obama's gonna win it/you're sorta kinda stayin' in it," she sings.

"He's got the delegates locked down, let him Ba-rock this, 'cause he ain't just another Mondale, John Kerry or Dukakis."

"These attacks are insane...they just help John McCain..."

OK.

At least it's better than stains on a blue dress, Joe McCarthy comparisons and Judas analogies.

Here is it (It only seems to be available on ABC at the moment.)

6:53 PM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Fred Thompson Returns to Hollywood

People seemed to like former Tenn. Sen. Fred Thompson. And he had the conservative credentials many Republicans wanted. But whether it was his late entry into the GOP presidential race, his laid-back style of campaigning or his fund raising problems, he never really took off with GOP primary voters.

So he's doing what he knows how to do best - taking up acting again.

The Los Angeles Times' Top of the Ticket blog reports that the William Morris Agency will represent Thompson.

Thompson most recently appeared as district attorney Arthur Branch on "Law & Order" and has played authority figures in the films "The Hunt For Red October," "Die Hard II" and "In the Line of Fire."

Thompson dropped out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination on Jan. 22.

The Campaign Spot at NRO hopes that Arthur Branch will challenge Jack McCoy for District Attorney on Law and Order.

5:11 PM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Clinton May Have Misspoke About Bosnia Landing

In a conference call with reporters this morning, the Clinton campaign said that Sen. Hillary Clinton may have misspoke about her landing under sniper fire in Tuzla, Bosnia.

Just last week, Clinton spoke about her experience landing under sniper fire there. But as the News Blog noted on Friday, the Washington Post Fact Checker blog found a picture that showed her kissing a small child on her arrival at the Tuzla airport, and then later video was found of the same scene.

While the Clinton campaign said she may have misspoken, deputy communications director Phil Singer said it was important to note that at the time no first lady since Eleanor Roosevelt had gone into an area still considered a combat zone. Clinton visited several spots outside the Tuzla area that were considered much more dangerous than the one shown in the video.

And as a piece in the Post describes today, both Obama and Clinton are guilty of trying to take a little more credit than is due for legislation or for their role in particular situations.

4:49 PM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Jack "Dr. Death" Kevorkian Announces Run for Congress

In an earlier posting on the News Blog, we noted that Dr. Jack Kevorkian had taken out papers to run for public office in Michigan, but we couldn't say for sure which office until he actually filed the papers. Well, it appears that Kervorkian got at least the minimum 3,000 signatures he needed, and he will run for Congress in Michigan's 9th district.

The retired 79-year old pathologist said he helped at least 130 people die from 1990 to 1998. In 1999 he was convicted of second-degree murder and served eight years of a 10-25 year sentence.

He called his candidacy audacious. "But it is the most important thing in my life right now."

If elected, he said his main priority will be promoting the little-known Ninth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and the rights it guarantees. The Ninth Amendment protects rights not explicitly specified elsewhere in the Constitution, and Kevorkian says he interprets it as protecting a person's choice to die through assisted suicide or to avoid wearing a seat belt.

The seat, considered a safe Republican seat, is currently held by Rep. Joe Knollenberg, who is seeking re-election. Gary Peters, a former state senator and state lottery commissioner, is running for the Democratic nomination. Michigan's statewide non-presidential primaries are on Aug. 5.

4:10 PM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Former GOP Presidential Adviser Endorses Obama

He himself admits that it might not be an endorsement of any meaning - unlike the one made last Friday by New Mexico governor Bill Richardson. But Douglas Kmiec says it may be of note is that it is being made by a former constitutional legal counsel to two Republican presidents -- Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.

Kmiec, a former adviser to the Romney campaign, wrote in Slate.com on Sunday that he arrived at his decision to back Obama because he takes Obama "at his word that he wants to move the nation beyond its religious and racial divides and to return United States to that company of nations committed to human rights."

Kmiec, a Catholic, say he still believes in limited government, the right to life, the traditional family model and that the separation of church and state doesn't always mean the complete exclusion of religion from the public sphere.

"In various ways, Senator Barack Obama and I may disagree on aspects of these important fundamentals, but I am convinced based upon his public pronouncements and his personal writing that on each of these questions he is not closed to understanding opposing points of view, and as best as it is humanly possible, he will respect and accommodate them.

"No doubt some of my friends will see this as a matter of party or intellectual treachery. I regret that and I respect their disagreement. But they will readily agree that as Republicans, we are first Americans. As Americans, we must voice our concerns for the well-being of our nation without partisanship when decisions that have been made endanger the body politic. Our president has involved our nation in a military engagement without sufficient justification or clear objective. In so doing, he has incurred both tragic loss of life and extraordinary debt jeopardizing the economy and the well-being of the average American citizen. In pursuit of these fatally flawed purposes, the office of the presidency, which it was once my privilege to defend in public office formally, has been distorted beyond its constitutional assignment. Today, I do no more than raise the defense of that important office anew, but as private citizen."

Turns out that some of his Republican friends do disagree with his position. Paul Mirengoff writes at the conservative PowerLine blog writes that Kmiec's endorsement of Obama is "one of the most vacuous statements I've ever read." He adds "why conservatives should vote for a candidate who probably respects conservative views, instead of a candidate who more often than not agrees with them, Kmiec never explains."

2:21 PM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Sen. Larry Craig to Keep Promise to Retire

When he was in the middle of his airport bathroom sex-sting scandal, Idaho Republican Senator Larry Craig said that while he would not resign, he would also not re-offer for his seat in the fall. On Friday, Craig kept his word.

The Hill reports that Craig didn't file for reelection by Idaho's deadline Friday. Craig's political career had been in doubt since last August when Roll Call reported he had allegedly solicited sex from an undercover police officer conducting a sting operation to crack down on alleged gay sexual liaisons in the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport's bathrooms. Craig denied all charges and resisted pressure to step down immediately.

The passing of Friday's 5:00 p.m. deadline brings to a close a career in elected office that began with Craig's election to the Idaho state Senate in 1974 and all but clears the way for Idaho Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R) to take his seat next year in the strongly Republican state where President Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) 68 percent to 30 percent in the last presidential contest.

1:50 PM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

McCain: US "Can't Do Whatever it Wants, Whenever it Wants"

During the brouhaha last week over Sen. John McCain's Iraq mix-up over the role that Iran plays training Shiite, not al-Qaida, extremists, there may have been even more interesting material overlooked.

In a dramatic departure from the Bush administration's pre-emptive strike policy, McCain told readers of Le Monde in France and the Financial Times in England that "Our great power does not mean we can do whatever we want whenever we want, nor should we assume we have all the wisdom and knowledge necessary to succeed."

We need to listen to the views and respect the collective will of our democratic allies. When we believe that international action is necessary, whether military, economic or diplomatic, we will try to persuade our friends that we are right. But we, in return, must also be willing to be persuaded by them.

McCain also said that Americans and Europeans need to get serious about "get serious about substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years or we will hand over a much-diminished world to our grandchildren" and he proposed a succesor to the Kyoto treaty that would deal with the problem in "an economically responsible manner."

The Swamp notes that these are positions that he has articulated before, and is part of his plan to present himself overseas as a president who could repair America's tattered image abroad - while still supporting the U.S. presence in Iraq. And while these positions may also help him with moderates Republicans and independents at home, they are not likely to win him any more friends in conservative circles.

Now word from the president or vice president on what appears to be statements in direct opposition to positions they have taken in the past.

11:55 AM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Tough Times for K Street Lobbyists in DC

This story has the feeling of something only people inside the beltway would care about a great deal, but we pass it along because the reality of the situation is that "K Street Lobbyists" as they are called in DC, affect legislation that touches every American. (Not to mention many people in foreign countries.)

Well, it turns out it's a bit of tough times for lobbyists. Not that bad, mind you -- lobbyists will still pull in $2.9 billion this year. But thanks to a variety of scandals where lobbyists were behind the implosion of several political careers (can you say Bob Ney or Duke Cunningham?), the National Journal reports that "lobbyists and lobbying firms are now targets as never before."

In 2007, Congress passed tough reforms that cracked down on many of K Street's most hallowed practices. Gone are the days when lobbyists could buy meals and gifts for lawmakers and their staffers and could finance entertainment, corporate jets, and junkets. Lobbyists and their firms must now file three times the number of reports with Congress than in years past. Even more ominous, the new law exposes lobbyists and their employers to potential prison time and hefty fines if they fail to follow the regulations.

As if that were not enough, the lobbying class -- long derided outside the Beltway as the scourge of Washington -- is a convenient punching bag in the presidential campaign. After winning the Wisconsin primary on February 19, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., declared in a victory speech, "Washington has become a place where good ideas go to die... because lobbyists crush them with their money and influence."

But as the article points out, all three of the remaining presidential contenders have top lobbyists working for them. And while there are more rules, there is also more lobbying taking place than ever before.

Ah, the more things change, the more they stay the same ...

11:40 AM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Hillary Clinton's Iraq Vote Looms Over Her Campaign

It might not seem it at the moment -- with sounds of Jeremiah Wright, Florida and Michigan and questions about how "conservative" John McCain is rebounding around the media echo chamber -- but the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the Iraq war.

So it's appropriate today -- as word arrives of the 4000th U.S. casualty in Iraq -- to look at the candidates and their early positions on the war.

Today, Morning Edition looks at Sen. Hillary Clinton's Senate vote to authorize the war and how it has come to shadow her campaign. (The other candidates will be along later in the week.)

It's been almost six years since the "drumbeat" about a war in Iraq first started to sound. As NPR's David Greene reports, there was a lot of pressure on Democrats -- and Clinton in particular -- to support it. When it came time for her to speak on the Senate floor, she said her New York constituents were on her mind.

Continue reading "Hillary Clinton's Iraq Vote Looms Over Her Campaign" »

10:45 AM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Aide's Remarks Knocked But Obama Up in Polls

The story on the weekend was the number of nasty shots the Clinton and Obama campaigns took at each other and their supporters.

First, prominent supporters of both the Obama and Clinton camps criticized the Illinois senator's campaign for allowing one of his campaign co-chairs to make remarks that seemed to compare former President Bill Clinton to the late controversial Sen. Joseph McCarthy.

In Charlotte last Friday, President Clinton said: "I think it would be a great thing if we had an election year where you had two people who loved this country and were devoted to the interest of this country," which seemed to imply that Obama didn't love his country. Retired Gen. Merrill "Tony" McPeak first said that these remarks were divisive and said Clinton should know about being the target of this kind of smear, considering he was attacked during his 1992 campaign for dodging the draft. Later, he made the McCarthy comparison: "I grew up, I was going to college when Joe McCarthy was accusing good Americans of being traitors, so I've had enough of it."

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, an Obama supporter, said he didn't think President Clinton was suggesting Obama was unpatriotic in his remarks. "But the point here ... is that the campaign has gotten too negative --- too many personal attacks, too much negativity that is not resounding with the public," he said.

But Richardson was also the subject of some personal attacks over the weekend as well. Long time Clinton supporter James Carville accused him of being a "Judas" for backing Obama over Sen. Hillary Clinton.

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8:30 AM ET | 03-24-2008 | permalink | comments (22) | e-mail post

 

McCain's Loan Lawyer

Republican John McCain's campaign fundraising remained flat last month. New reports show that he collected 11 million dollars in February. That's about 1/3 as much as Hillary Clinton raised, and just 1/5 as much as Clinton's Democratic rival, Barack Obama.

Throughout the race, McCain has been dogged by fundraising problems. Last fall, he got a bank loan to keep his campaign afloat. That loan raised lots of questions.

Fidelity and Trust Bank, in Maryland, gave McCain's campaign a 4-million-dollar line of credit... later expanded to 5 million. Questions arose, and the bank tried to calm the waters with a reassuring letter from its outside counsel.

This lawyer for the bank was Scott Thomas, a former chairman of the Federal Election Commission who left in 2006.

Public records show that, just weeks before the bank made the loan, Thomas had been doing legal work for McCain's political operation -- not for the presidential campaign itself, but for a political action committee connected to McCain.

That committee -- Straight Talk America -- was what's called a leadership PAC. It raised money for McCain to use supporting other candidates and traveling around the country -- before he announced for president.

Straight Talk America paid Thomas' law firm 77 hundred dollars last November 16th, two days after the date of the loan to McCain's campaign committee.

Continue reading "McCain's Loan Lawyer" »

6:17 PM ET | 03-21-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Media Ask "The Beginning of the End for Clinton?"

A "drumbeat" has started to sound in the media the past week with the speech on race by Sen. Barack Obama and with the announcement of Bill Richardson's endorsement of Obama - "this could be the beginning of the end for Clinton."

Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen at Politico.com wrote today that "One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning."

Former Republican and Democratic strategist (in fact, he worked for the Clintons) Dick Morris said on Fox News yesterday that "First of all, he is the Democratic Party nominee. There is no way that Hillary Clinton is going to either beat him in elected delegates or persuade the superdelegates. He is the Democratic nominee." (Morris did add that he thinks the Wright issue will sink Obama in the fall.)

Jack Cafferty, of the Cafferty File on CNN, used the phrase when talking about the Richardson endorsement and the delegate count. Specifically, Cafferty said Richardson's status as a special delegate gives other special delegates the excuse to come out and support Obama now, despite the Wright controversy.

Toby Harnden, The Daily Telegraph's U.S. editor since 2006, writes that Clinton has "no realistic path" to the nomination. "Unless Obama is, as the now-jailed former Louisiana governor Edwin Edwards once put it, 'caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy' she cannot overcome his pledged delegate lead."

Slate's Trailhead blog looks at the different ways that Clinton could catch up and pass Obama but then adds, "All this being a long way of saying, Hillary's path to the nomination is not 'narrow.' It's barricaded. Yet still there seems to be a hesitation among the media to declare Clinton dead. Maybe it's her zombielike ability to rise again -- first in New Hampshire, then in Nevada, then most recently in Texas and Ohio. But people have to understand there will be no knockout blow, no head shot. Rather it will be a long, slow exit that causes pain to everyone involved."

But there are also two things to consider: 1) endorsements really haven't mattered in the past. Kennedy endorsed Obama, and he still lost Mass. on Super Tuesday; 2) Clinton is way behind in pledged delegates but what about all of those superdelegates who may have benefited from the Clinton legacy in the past ... and who will want to benefit from them in the future?

So what do you think? Is the end nigh? Does the Richardson announcement help Obama with superdelegates? What about Clinton's ability to fight back again and again? (And hey, isn't she leading in a lot of the polls right now?) Don't forget you can also voice your opinion in our GetMyVote section.

5:05 PM ET | 03-21-2008 | permalink | comments (182) | e-mail post

 

Crist May Not Be the VP For McCain Afterall

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has been labeled as a potential running mate for Republican presidential nominee John McCain. And why not? He's the popular governor of a key state in the general election, a state seen as one of the handful that will make or break presidential campaigns.

But a new St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll shows that despite Crist's bipartisan popularity in the Sunshine State, it doesn't translate into support for a McCain/Crist ticket in the fall. Crist would only provide modest help in keeping the state in Republican hands in November.

Three percent said Crist as a running mate would make them "much more likely" to vote for McCain, 6 percent said "somewhat more likely" and 87 percent said it would have no effect.

"There is no reason to expect from this information that Charlie Crist adds anything to (McCain's) ticket in terms of winning Democrats in Florida," said pollster Tom Eldon of Schroth, Eldon & Associates, which conducted the poll.

Not only that, but the poll shows that McCain is not that popular a draw among Democrats, which has long been touted as one of his strengths. "The poll shows 16 percent say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for McCain, which is in line with the 13 percent of Democrats who voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and the 14 percent in 2004."

But the Crist people still think the matchup is a good idea.

"Gov. Crist has one of the highest approval ratings in the country, and his appeal extends to independent voters ..." state GOP spokeswoman Erin VanSickle said. "If you are looking for proof that Gov. Crist can deliver Florida for Sen. McCain, look no further than Jan. 29 ... that's exactly what he did."

4:46 PM ET | 03-21-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Photo Shows Little Sniper Fire at Bosnia Airport

Sen. Hillary Clinton has been telling people that she remembered landing under "sniper fire" when she landed at Tuzla airport in Bosnia on March 25, 1996

"There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base," Clinton said in a speech at George Washington University on March 8. Clinton has been using the story to illustrate that President Clinton would often send her on dangerous trips.

But a photo taken that day shows that maybe it wasn't such a dangerous trip after all, and that the recent comments of the comedian Sinbad who accompanied her on the trip (to the effect that what they were thinking about during the landing was where were they going to eat next) might be closer to the truth.

The Washington Post's The Fact Checker blog reports that there are "numerous problems with Clinton's version of events."

As a reporter who visited Bosnia soon after the December 1995 Dayton Peace agreement, I can attest that the physical risks were minimal during this period, particularly at a heavily fortified U.S. Air Force base, such as Tuzla. Contrary to the claims of Hillary Clinton and former Army secretary Togo West, Bosnia was not "too dangerous" a place for President Clinton to visit in early 1996. In fact, the first Clinton to visit the Tuzla Air Force base was not Hillary, but Bill, on January 13, 1996.

Had Hillary Clinton's plane come "under sniper fire" in March 1996, we would certainly have heard about it long before now. Numerous reporters, including the Washington Post's John Pomfret, covered her trip. A review of nearly 100 news accounts of her visit shows that not a single newspaper or television station reported any security threat to the First Lady. "As a former AP wire service hack, I can safely say that it would have been in my lead had anything like that happened," said Pomfret.

Here is video from CBS News showing the arrival but no hint of trouble.

The Post's blog awarded her "four pinocchios" out of a possible five for the story.

3:19 PM ET | 03-21-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

FactCheck.org: Clinton Deserves Credit for SCHIP

Last week the Boston Globe ran an article that questioned Sen. Hillary Clinton's claims that she deserved credit for helping to expand federal health insurance for millions of children. Among the people the Globe interviewed was Sen. Orrin Hatch, who along with Sen. Ted Kennedy, actually did get the SCHIP (State Children's Health Insurance Program) bill through the Senate. Hatch said that while it was obvious that Clinton cared a great deal about children's health, she didn't have all that much to do with the actual process.

But now FactCheck.org has looked into the situation and its researchers find that "she deserves plenty of credit, both for the passage of the SCHIP legislation and for pushing outreach efforts to translate the law into reality."

Among the people FactCheck.org talked to about Clinton's involvement was Adam Clymer, former chief Washington correspondent for the New York Times, who covered the legislative maneuvering and also wrote about it in a 1999 book, "Edward M. Kennedy: A Biography."

Adam Clymer: "On balance, I would say of course Kennedy and Hatch deserve most of the credit, but Hillary helped by making sure the Administration stuck with the $24 billion in [the Senate-House] conference. She didn't write the legislation but she played a significant role in getting it passed."

Other accounts at the time the legislation was passed and since give Clinton substantial credit. The pro-Republican Washington Times newspaper credited (or perhaps more accurately, blamed) Hillary Clinton for the program in a 1997 article. The paper said it had obtained documents from 1993 showing that the White House "plotted" to push a "Kids First" insurance program if Mrs. Clinton's universal health care proposal failed.

1:47 PM ET | 03-21-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post