McCain Seeks Center-Right Voters, Annoying Conservatives

When George Bush ran for president in 2000 and 2004, he and Karl Rove, his political guru, had a very definite election plan that featured getting as many conservatives as possible to the polls.

But the Washington Times reports that Sen. John McCain knows that this strategy won't work for him, so he has taken a completely different route - trying to pick up as many independents and right-wing Democrats (the return of Reagan Democrats?) as he can.

"This time, we are working to get a larger share than normal of independents and conservative Democrats, mainly because our own base is narrower than four years ago," said McCain campaign senior adviser Charles Black, who has been a part of every GOP presidential campaign since Ronald Reagan's nomination run in 1976 ....

Noting there are more Democrats and independents up for grabs than in recent elections, Frank J. Donatelli, the Republican National Committee's deputy chairman, says Mr. McCain needs a center-right coalition to win, just as the Democrat will need a center-left coalition. "We intend to beat them to the center," he said.

This strategy has some dangers, the Times reports. His more centrist positions on some issues will "inevitably will rub orthodox conservatives the wrong way and worsen his relations with them."

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times reports that supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul don't look all that eager to switch their support to McCain. (Paul is still officially running for president, don't forget.)

Continue reading "McCain Seeks Center-Right Voters, Annoying Conservatives" »

9:27 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post

 

Brit Paper Picks 50 Most Influential Pundits

Toby Harnden, the U.S. editor/reporter/blogger for Britain's The Daily Telegraph has put together a list of the 50 most influential pundits in the United States. This kind of stuff is often inside baseball, and the only people who really care about it are the pundits themselves. (Helps in contract talks.) You might call it an ordering of the usual suspects.

The Telegraph described their list this way:

As with our previous lists of the 100 most influential conservatives and the 100 most influential liberals, we leaned towards those with the most potential to influence events over the coming months rather than simply the stalwarts of past years -- though many on our list fall into both categories.

While being opinionated did not guarantee consideration, having strong opinions was a key factor. Many important journalists have been left out because they portray themselves as objective and seek to inform rather than persuade.

(Inform rather than persuade? ... what a concept!)

The most influential pundit? Karl Rove according to the Telegraph. (Point of order, your honor. Is Mr. Rove really a pundit? Or just a former political guru in-between consulting gigs?)

But let's make our own list. Which "pundit" influences your opinion the most? Or to boldly go where the Telegraph feared to tread, are there journalists or commentators who you believe aren't just trying to persuade you, but to help you make up your own mind? (The News Blog casts votes for Ron Elving and Ken Rudin.)

9:00 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Indianapolis Star Endorses Clinton

Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up an important endorsement today from the Indianapolis Star, Indiana's largest newspaper. While the paper's editorial board praised both Clinton and her rival Sen. Barack Obama, board members felt that Clinton' experience was the deciding factor.

Obama offers an attractive vision for the way things could be. He speaks eloquently of hope and change. He connects with voters, many who formerly felt disenfranchised, on a level few political leaders have attained.

Clinton offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are. She offers nuanced positions on how to address the war in Iraq, trade with China and economic expansion. Her depth of knowledge is remarkable.

As impressive as Obama appears, he is still in his first term in the U.S. Senate, and only four years ago was serving as an Illinois state senator. His inexperience in high office is a liability.

Clinton, in contrast, is well prepared for the rigors of the White House. She is tough, experienced and realistic about what can and cannot be accomplished on the world stage.

The paper did say that Clinton had done more pandering to voters, particularly on the gas tax holiday idea. And the board pointed out that she was a part of her husband's "political machine, which earned a reputation for flattening opponents. That factor understandably gives many voters pause about whether another Clinton should serve as president."

But the paper went with Clinton because it sees America and the world in a tough place and that Clinton "is the better choice, based on her experience and grasp of major issues, to confront those challenges."

8:15 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

New Poll Shows Big Lead for Obama in N.C.

A new daily tracking poll by Zogby International shows that Sen. Barack Obama seems to have regained his footing in North Carolina, and is giving his rival Sen. Hillary Clinton a run for her money in Indiana.

The poll, conducted with live operators, of 668 likely Democratic voters in North Carolina showed Obama with a 50% to 34% lead. A similar survey of 680 Indiana voters showed the two candidates tied at 42% each -- but with 16% saying they still have to make up their minds.

Here is the breakdown of the North Carolina polls:

"Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina--47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well--winning 44% support to Clinton's 37% backing."

And likewise for Indiana:

"Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama's hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women."

Here's how they conducted the poll (readers have been asking to see more about how these polls are done):

Zogby International commissioned a telephone survey of [Likely Democratic Primary Voters].

Approximately [30] questions are asked. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased voter registration lists. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR's approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.

Indiana N=680 MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender

North Carolina N=668 MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender

6:50 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Pelosi Says No Way to Gas Tax Holiday

Not to put too fine a point on it, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi more or less said to Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain today "You know what you can do with your gas tax holiday idea."

The Washington Post's The Trail blog reports that Pelosi said this afternoon that Congress will not consider an 18-cent gas tax holiday.

"There is no reason to believe any moratorium on the gas tax will be passed on to consumers. That's first and foremost," she said. "Second, it will defeat everything we've tried to do to lower the cost of oil," noting that Democrats have been trying to shift the nation to alternative fuel sources, not promote gasoline consumption.

That puts the kibosh on that. Clinton says she will return to the Senate to introduce her measure and that she'll have several co-sponsors. But without support in the House, it's all window dressing.

9:07 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Pew Poll Shows Obama, Clinton Both Beating McCain

Sen. Barack Obama is losing support among white-working class Democrats at an alarming speed. But his popularity with independents helps him make up lost ground. In a national poll of Democrats by the Pew Research Center, reported on All Things Considered, Obama leads Clinton 47% to 45% (although a month ago it was 49% to 39% for Obama).

But unlike other recent polls, the Pew poll shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain - Obama 50% to McCain 44% and Clinton 49% to McCain's 45%.

The president of the Pew Research Center, Andrew Kohut, told NPR's Robert Siegel that the Illinois senator's "slippage [is] powered by an even greater role of both race and class in the patterns of the answers."

"For instance, Clinton's lead among white Democrats who did not attend college rose from 10 points in March to 40 points in the current survey, which was based on phone interviews of 651 people from April 23-27. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points."

But Clinton has her problems too. She has made gains but the poll doesn't show that her image has improved in the eyes of voters. "In fact, in some respects, her image is worse than it was when she was 10 points behind," Kohut says.

The advantage that Clinton has among white working class voters is matched by Obama's popularity among African-Americans, college-educated workers and independents. Among black voters, Kohut says, Clinton's number resemble the kind of support -- or lack thereof -- that Republicans get from that community these days.

8:26 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post

 

N.C. Attorney General Says WVWV Robocalls Illegal

A charity organization with ties to Hillary Clinton has come under criticism for running apparently illegal robo-calls in advance of next week's hotly contested Democratic primary in North Carolina. The group, Women's Voices Women Vote, says it's just trying to get single women registered to vote.

Last week, this automated robo-call went out in North Carolina.

"Hello. This is Lamont Williams. In the next few days, you will receive a voter registration packet in the mail. All you need to do is fill it out, sign it, date and return the application. Then you will be able to vote and make your voice heard. Please return your registration form when it arrives. Thank you."

But the deadline to register for the primary had already passed. And the call went to many registered voters -- people who already were expecting to vote in the presidential primary next Tuesday. The call and follow up mailings made many wonder whether they were registered for the primary or not.

This sounds like a classic example of voter suppression -- sowing confusion and driving down turn-out. And these calls seemed to be aimed at African American communities, places where Barack Obama is expected to win easily.

The group behind the calls is Women's Voices Women Vote. It's a 501-c-3 charity, and the robo-calls seem completely at odds with the group's usual, upbeat message.

Continue reading "N.C. Attorney General Says WVWV Robocalls Illegal" »

5:46 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Carter Hails Obama's Ability to "Transform Image of U.S."

This one sort of escaped much notice here in America.

Toby Harnden, the Washington-based reporter and blogger for England's The Daily Telegraph, has a rather interesting interview with former President Jimmy Carter that was published in the paper on Tuesday. In the interview, Carter (who hasn't 'officially' endorsed anyone yet) spoke glowingly of Sen. Barack Obama, and called on the party to decide on a winner by June 3rd.

"I don't see any reason at all to continue after June 3rd when we know who got the most [pledged] delegates, who got the most popular votes, who won the most states and so forth," said Carter, 83.

As Harnden writes, he even "sketched out the kind of inaugural address the first black United States president could deliver."

"If the first statement he made was while I'm president of the United States we will never torture another prisoner and while I'm President of the United States we will never go to war unless our own security is directly threatened...it would transform the image of the United States in the minds of many people around the world.

Carter, who is on a promotional tour for his new book about his mother, Lillian Carter, said his mother would be "delighted" with a black president, but just "pleased" with a woman president.

Here is the transcript of the entire interview.

5:15 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Support Gas Tax Holiday Because of "Leadership"

It's been a particularly unpopular idea - the gas tax holiday. Economists across the political spectrum think it's a bad idea. Yet Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to push the idea. (Although it has changed a bit in the past few days; it's not longer a "gas tax holiday" it's 'let the oil companies pay the gas tax over the summer" -- an idea the experts also say won 't work.)

So why is Clinton so intent on pursuing this idea? Leadership.

(Although Sen. McCain had the "idea" first. At least this time -- it's been a popular position for Republicans to take whenever gas prices do rise.)

Earlier today during a conference call, when asked why she continues to back the idea when it lacks support, Clinton campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson explained it this way: ""We believe that the presidency requires leadership. There are times when a president will take a position that a broad consensus of quote unquote experts will agree with, and there are times when a president will do something that, the group of experts quote unquote does not agree with.

"And you know, this is something that Senator Clinton believes is the right policy...she believes it's the right policy in the short term to help consumers who are struggling, and she has, as I said, a very comprehensive plan to deal with this in the long term as well. And she's going to continue to talk about this and continue to push for it. And I understand that there may be some people who disagree with it and of course they're entitled to disagree with it. You know, this is something that Senator Clinton believes is important. And presidents listen to advice, get advice, and then, and then act. And that is what Senator Clinton is doing.""

Marc Ambinder makes a good point at theAtlantic.com about listening to the two camps conference calls today: like "dipping into parallel universes."

2:58 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Campaign Goes Hard After Superdelegates

Sen. Barack Obama may be picking up the majority of superdelegates recently, but that doesn't mean that the Clinton campaign is giving up.

A few minutes ago the Clinton campaign sent to reporters a copy of an e-mail that they are sending to superdelegates (for some reason the Clinton camp calls them "automatic" delegates). The e-mail quotes a lot of recent polling data that argues that Clinton would be the best candidate to take on Republican presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain.

Some of it you've probably already heard this morning: the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll and the CBS/New York Times poll. Both show Clinton doing very well against McCain.

Perhaps the most persuasive part of their argument could be the new polling data from Quinnipiac. It shows that Clinton would beat McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, while Obama would only beat McCain in Pennsylvania.

Here is the text of the message:

Continue reading "Clinton Campaign Goes Hard After Superdelegates" »

1:32 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (19) | e-mail post

 

Obama Has Good Day with Supers

Sen. Barack Obama's recent problems do not seem to be bothering superdelegates, if the past few days are any indication. Obama has picked up five more superdelegates today and seven votes.

That vote difference comes because the first announcement today came from Joe Andrew who was a Clinton super who is now switching his vote to Obama. That's a two-vote swing. Add one to Obama and take one way from Clinton at the same time.

Then the Chicago Sun-Times reports that Obama will pick up three more Illinois superdelegates next week at the party's state convention.

And the Obama campaign just sent out an e-mail announcing that "Texas DNC Member John Patrick, who is also a 31-year member of the United Steelworkers (USW) as well as a Vice President of the Texas AFL/CIO, brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama to 249." {It's likely the three Illinois delegates are not being counted yet.]

Clinton has not picked up any new superdelegates today.
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UPDATE: Clinton has one. From Connecticut. John Olsen, president of the Connecticut AFL-CIO and a super-delegate.

AND MORE: Hillary gets four more supers from New York: New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, former Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields, New York Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli and New York Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo.

That's five each today.

(Tom Note: Mick is right, it's six votes not seven for Obama.)

12:29 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

Senate: MCain is Absolutely, Positively an American

The News Blog covered this a few months ago when some conservative bloggers who didn't want to see Sen. John McCain as the Republican presidential nominee, were making noises about the fact that he was born in the Panama Canal Zone -- his father was stationed there -- and that meant he wasn't 'really' an American and thus couldn't run for president.

Codswallup. That's basically what the Senate said yesterday. The Senate passed a unanimous resolution affirming that McCain is indeed 100% American, "the kind of 'natural born' citizen the Founding Fathers determined could serve as president."

"There is no evidence of the intention of the framers or any Congress to limit the constitutional rights of children born to Americans serving in the military nor to prevent those children from serving as their country's president," the resolution said.

The resolution does not have the power of law. But its main authors, Democratic Senators Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont and Claire McCaskill of Missouri, both Democrats, wanted the Senate to take a clear stand on the issue.

10:37 AM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (17) | e-mail post

 

Limbaugh Tells Dittoheads to Vote for Clinton

Conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh wants to fire up 'Operation Chaos' again. He is calling on his dittoheads in Indiana and North Carolina to go and vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton next Tuesday in the hopes of prolonging the Democratic presidential nomination race. Limbaugh has repeatedly said that the longer the race goes on, the better it is for Republicans and their presidential nominee Sen. John McCain.(Indiana and North Carolina have open primaries.)

Limbaugh had put the operation on hold -- oh, for about an entire day -- while he said he was considering if Obama had been done in by the recent Jeremiah Wright controversy. But after watching the "drive-bys" -- Limbaugh's dismissive term for what he calls the liberal media -- praise Obama's speech about Wright on Tuesday as "courageous," he thinks it's no time for a change in strategy.

As Jonathan Martin notes in Politico.com, if Clinton wins Indiana by, say one thousand votes, "this may actually be important."

9:05 AM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (26) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Superdelegate Switches to Obama

It's just one more superdelegate for Obama, but it's an important "get" for his campaign.

The Associated Press is reporting that Joe Andrew, who chaired the Democratic National Committee for two years while Bill Clinton was president, will announce today that he is switching his support in this year's campaign from Sen. Hillary Clinton to Sen. Barack Obama.

Andrew says the Obama camp didn' t ask him to switch, but he decided to do so after watching the way Obama handled two issues in recent days: his stand against the gas tax holiday and the way he has handled the most recent Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy.

Andrew said he was impressed with Obama's stand on principle against the tax holiday when the politically easy thing to do would have been to support it. And he liked the way Obama has dealt with the Wright controversy.

"He has shown such mettle under fire," Andrew told the AP. "The Jeremiah Wright controversy just reconfirmed for me, just as the gas tax controversy confirmed for me, that he is the right candidate for our party."

Andrew also told the Indianapolis Star that his wife, Ann, who has been a full-time volunteer for Clinton is also switching her support to Obama.

Andrew said he was also concerned about what the bruising battle was doing to his party.

"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point where it is now bad for the Democratic Party."

He also said that a vote to continue this process would be a vote to help John McCain.

Andrew told the Star that he hopes Obama picks a Clinton supporter as his running mate - such as Sen. Evan Bayh, national co-chairman of Clinton's campaign, to help unite thte party.

The Former DNC chairman will make his announcement today in his home town of Indianapolis. He said he also plans to send a letter to remaining uncommitted superdelegates explaining his switch.
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UPDATE: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Obama will pick up three more Illinois superdelegates next week when the Democratic Party of Illinois meet next week to finish filling out the delegate slate:"Mayor [Richard] Daley --he shares strategist David Axelrod with Obama and brother Bill, the former Commerce Secretary is on the Obama team; Illinois House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie (D-Chicago), a Hyde Parker who lives near the Obamas'; and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger."

8:04 AM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Obama Camp Demands Investigation of Pro-Clinton 527

The Obama campaign has accused an independent group supporting Hillary Clinton of violating election laws. The Obama camp wants an investigation by the Federal Election Commission or the Justice Department.

The American Leadership Project has spent several hundred thousand dollars for this attack ad in Indiana:

The project has run 4 TV ads this year -- two attacking Obama, two promoting Clinton.

Obama campaign lawyer Bob Bauer says that takes the group over the line into illegal territory. He says the Federal Election Commission set the standard in 2006 with cases against Swift Boat Veterans and other so-called 527 groups.

"There is no chance that ALP can credibly argue that it didn't know it was violating the law," says Bauer.

Lawyers for the American Leadership Project say that it can exist, legally, as a 527 group. They say it's concerned about issues and is not explicitly calling for Clinton to win the nomination.

-- Peter Overby

5:58 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Gas Tax Holiday Idea Not Winning Many Supporters

Survey says ... gas tax holiday is just not a good idea.

Other than Sen. John McCain and Sen. Hillary Clinton, it seems to be heard to find anyone who thinks that a gas tax holiday is a good idea.

Former Clinton Energy Secretary Federico Peña released a statement via the Obama campaign today that said " ...a gas tax holiday would save the average family only about 30 cents a day. It's designed to win elections, not fix our energy problems."

Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter is pretty blunt. He describes this proposal as "the most irresponsible policy idea of the year--an idea that actually could aid the terrorists. What's worse, both of them know that suspending the federal gas tax this summer is a terrible pander, and yet they're pushing it anyway for crass political advantage."

New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman was equally as cutting.

"It is great to see that we finally have some national unity on energy policy," he wrote. "Unfortunately, the unifying idea is so ridiculous, so unworthy of the people aspiring to lead our nation, it takes your breath away ... This is not an energy policy. This is money laundering: we borrow money from China and ship it to Saudi Arabia and take a little cut for ourselves as it goes through our gas tanks. What a way to build our country."

Yesterday Times columnist Paul Krugman (who has been accused by many Obama supporters of being a Clinton supporter) said he didn't like the idea either:" ... John McCain has a really bad idea on gasoline, Hillary Clinton is emulating him (but with a twist that makes her plan pointless rather than evil), and Barack Obama, to his credit, says no."

Sam Stein of the Huffington Post called economists of every political ideology he could find and not a single one supported the gas tax holiday idea.

Then today in the Washington Post The Trail column, Perry Bacon Jr. writes that "Clinton aides think that even if the measure [gas tax holiday] is a limited way to reduce gas prices, it allows the candidate to bash oil companies and cast her opponent against an idea that has political appeal."

4:44 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (29) | e-mail post

 

DC Non-Profit Confirms It is Making N.C. Robocalls

Women's Voices Women Vote told the News Blog this afternoon that it is the source of robocalls in North Carolina that have, according to the The Institute of Southern Studies Facing South blog, "spread misleading voter information and sown confusion and frustration among North Carolina residents over the last week..."

Women's Voices Women Vote is a Washington D.C. non-profit organization that works to register unmarried women to vote. Communications Director Sarah Johnson says that unmarried women are less likely to vote than their "married sisters."

So as part of a 24-state mailing campaign, according to Johnson, Women's Voices helped send out voter registration packages in the mail. Women just need to fill out the forms and send them back by mail to be registered to vote.

Johnson said they also made automated phone calls to voters in North Carolina when they had the person's number to tell them about the registration packages.

Sounds innocent enough, right? Only problem is that the deadline for mailing in voter registration forms in the mail has already passed in North Carolina. And those robocalls? Johnson confirmed that the calls didn't bother to mention that the deadline had passed and that the forms were only for the fall election. Nor did they identify Women's Voices as the source of the call. The calls instead came from a "Lamont Williams" which Johnson told the News Blog is just an automated voice.

"We do see there this is causing confusion and we completely apologize for the confusion," said Johnson. Johnson says that in the future, any phone calls will contain correct voter information and the source of the calls.

But Facing South alleges there is more to this situation that a simple mistake in timing.

Continue reading "DC Non-Profit Confirms It is Making N.C. Robocalls" »

3:31 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Obama Picks Up Three Superdelegates, Clinton Two

OK, get out your scorecard.

We blogged about this a bit earlier today, but the superdelegate endorsements are coming in fast and furious.

Sen. Barack Obama has picked up the endorsements of three Democratic members of the House of Representatives today: Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley, Indiana Rep. Baron Hill and California rep. Lois Capps. That makes it 77-77 in House endorsements for Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. Obama leads in the Senate 18-13.

Meanwhile Sen. Clinton picked up the endorsements of Pennsylvania superdelegate and AFL-CIO biggie Bill George, along with Puerto Rico's Luisette Cabanas.

Since his loss in Ohio, Obama has picked up 41 superdelegates, Clinton ten. Since his loss in Pennsylvania, Obama has picked up ten supers and Clinton six. There are 235 left to publicly declare support for either candidate.

Clinton leads 262 superdelegates (only, not overall total) to 242.

1:24 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

FactCheck: DNC Ad on McCain Misleading

FactCheck.org takes a look at the new Democratic National Committee ad about Sen. John McCain's statement that a 100-year U.S. presence in Iraq would be "fine with me." And FactCheck finds that the DNC leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to getting the facts straight.

Here is the ad:

Here's what FactCheck had to say:

The clear implication is that if McCain is elected, we can expect to be battling in Iraq for many decades to come. But the admakers cut off the rest of McCain's response, which provides some badly needed context:

McCain, town hall meeting, Jan. 3: Maybe a hundred. ... We've been in Japan for 60 years. We've been in South Korea for 50 years or so. That would be fine with me, as long as Americans, as long as Americans are not being injured or harmed or wounded or killed. It's fine with me and I hope it would be fine with you if we maintain a presence in a very volatile part of the world.

FactCheck says the DNC ad falsely leads people to believe that McCain would be happy to see the war continue for 100 years at its current level of fighting.

"McCain has said quite clearly that he considers Democratic proposals for a quick withdrawal from Iraq to be 'surrender,' and so deadly fighting could well continue longer under a President McCain than under either a President Hillary Clinton or a President Obama. But what the DNC ad conveys is the opposite of what McCain said."

12:30 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Obama to Appear on 'Meet the Press' for Entire Hour

NBC is trumpeting its "exclusive" interview with Sen. Barack Obama this coming Sunday on Meet the Press. Obama will be host Tim Russert's only guest for the entire hour.

It's fair to say that this is a decisive moment for Obama. If he comes off looking confident and in control, it will help him a lot in Indiana, North Carolina and with the superdelegates. If he looks bad, or too defensive or too evasive, it could hurt him badly.

11:42 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

McCain's Gas Tax Holiday Runs Contrary to Other Positions

John McCain's economic adviser believes in price signals.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin spoke approvingly during a conference call Tuesday about how the Safeway supermarket chain lowered its health care costs by sending a strong price signal to employees. In order to encourage workers to take advantage of preventive care, Safeway made it free. No co-pays. No deductibles, for things like smoking cessation and nutrition courses.

Just as lowering prices helps to encourage healthy behavior, raising prices (with a cigarette tax, for example, or higher health insurance premiums for smokers) can help discourage unhealthy behavior.

"There's a good role for public awareness of what contributes to the problem," Holtz-Eakin said.

That's what prices do.

So it's a little puzzling that McCain wants to interfere with the price signal energy markets have been sending.

Since the beginning of the year, the price of crude oil has risen about $20 per barrel. And the price of gasoline has jumped about 50 cents a gallon.

Motorists got the message. According to the Energy Department, demand for gasoline fell more than 6% between January and February, and demand for all finished petroleum products dropped 8.5%.

Instead of simply allowing those market forces to keep working, McCain has proposed lifting the federal gasoline tax during the busy summer driving season from Memorial Day to Labor Day. And now Hillary Clinton has agreed.

Americans are addicted to oil, much of it imported. As McCain himself points out, this contributes to our trade deficit and some of the money we send overseas for oil goes to people who don't have the United States' best interests at heart.

The long term solutions to this are greater fuel efficiency and alternative fuels. The short term solution is to drive less.

So what kind of signal does McCain's proposed lifting of the gas tax send?

-- Scott Horsley

10:51 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

Indiana Polls Show a Tight Democratic Race

Polls in Indiana appear to be all over the place.

A Public Policy Polling survey gave Clinton an 8-point lead, 50%-42%. They interviewed 1388 likely Democratic primary voters with a +/- of 2.2%. But PPP also uses robo-polling, a method which some experts considered not as accurate as operator-initiated calls (being asked questions by "live" humans).

On the other hand, an independent survey (done with live operators) for Howey Politics Indiana conducted by Gauge Market Research shows Obama with a 47% to 45% lead over Clinton. But this survey has a 4.1% +/- margin of error, so it's basically a tie. And this survey was conducted before Rev. Jeremiah Wright's "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more" tour.

Real Clear Politics poll average has Clinton with a 2.2% lead.

9:42 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Battle for Congressional Superdelegates May Be Over

It increasingly looks like the battle on Capitol Hill for the support of Democratic superdelegates is winding down, and that Sen. Barack Obama may be coming out on top.

Politico.com reports that "While more than 80 Democrats in the House and Senate have yet to state their preferences in the race for the Democratic nomination, sources said Tuesday that most of them have already made up their minds and have told the campaigns where they stand."

As a result the constant pressuring of these superdelegates has slacked off. But as Clinton supporter New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez puts it, "Right now, it's about making sure everyone still feels loved and wanted."

So who are the superdelegates supporting? Neither Sen. Clinton's nor Sen. Obama's camp are saying anything, but Obama supporter Sen. Claire McCaskill says it's her guy.

Obama currently holds an 18-13 lead among committed superdelegates in the Senate, while Clinton holds a 77-74 lead in the House. Asked which way the committed-but-unannounced superdelegates are leaning, McCaskill -- who has endorsed Obama -- said: "James Brown would say, 'I Feel Good.'"

But Clinton spokesman Phil Singer says hold your horses there, Sen. McCaskill. "Considering the rough patch Sen. Obama is going through, it's understandable that Sen. McCaskill would want to change the subject, but her observations don't jibe with what automatic delegates are actually saying," he said.
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UPDATE: No sooner did we post this piece when we received an e-mail from the Obama camp announcing that "An aide to U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, D-Iowa, says he will announce his endorsement of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Wednesday."

That makes the House 77-75 for Clinton.

AND MORE: Clinton picks up another superdelegate too, but not from Congress. Pennsylvania Superdelegate Bill George announced his support for Hillary Clinton today.

Meanwhile, Obama gets another member of the House of Representatives. The Louisville Courier-Journal reports that Indiana 9th District Rep. Baron Hill, a previously uncommitted Democratic superdelegate, is endorsing presidential candidate Barack Obama today.

So its 77-76 in the House. Sen. McCaskill's prediction is looking better.

8:59 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Edwards Skips North Carolina Before Primary

Hey, John Edwards, now that you've been knocked out of the Democratic presidential race, and both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama are hounding you to endorse one of them before next Tuesday's primary, what are you going to do?

Go to Disney World!

Yes, the Raleigh News and Observer reports that former Sen. Edwards has quietly left the state for a family vacation in at Walt Disney World in Florida, "fueling speculation that he's not going to endorse either Democratic presidential candidate before the May 6 primary."

But the paper notes that Edwards has pulled this before. In 2004 he took his family on a Disney vacation, leading many to believe he was out of the running for Sen. John Kerry's VP pick. But when no one (as in the media) was watching, he flew to D.C. to meet with Kerry.

Probably this time he just wants to escape media questions about who he is going to support.

8:26 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Michigan Backs Down A Bit, Proposes New Solution

Sen. Hillary Clinton will not be happy with this.

Democrats in Michigan have sent a letter to the Democratic National Committee that proposes a new solution to the battle over whether or not they should by allowed to seat their delegates at the national convention. Under their solution, Clinton would pick up a 10-seat advantage in Michigan, with Clinton getting 69 pledged delegates to 59 for Barack Obama.

The letter, sent by Sen. Carl Levin, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick,UAW President Ron Gettelfinger, and DNC Member Debbie Dingell calls on Clinton, Obama and the DNC to sign on to the proposal.

The Obama camp immediately said "we'll look into it." It's not the perfect solution for them, but it's close. Only allowing Clinton to pick up 10 delegates really won't make much of a dent in Obama's pledged delegate lead. That's why this solution still may not fly - it won't make the Clinton camp happy. And DNC chairman Howard Dean has said that both camps have to agree on a solution or else it will go to the credentials committee to work it all out.

Here is the letter:

Continue reading "Michigan Backs Down A Bit, Proposes New Solution" »

5:26 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

Obama Rips into Wright Over NPC Appearance

Sen. Barack Obama Tuesday said he was outraged by comments made by his former Pastor Jeremiah Wright.

"I am outraged by the comments that were made and saddened by the spectacle that we saw yesterday," Obama told reporters at a news conference.

Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com says that Obama aides told him that Obama was deeply angry at what Wright said at the National Press Club, and insisted that he hold a second press conference immediately.

Judging by his square jaw and his posture -- rigid -- and his tone of voice -- elegiac and sad at points, and hard and resolute at others, Obama felt aggrieved and disrespected, especially by Wright's implication that Obama's speech on racial politics in Philadelphia was mere politics. "I want to use this press conference to make people absolutely clear that obviously whatever relationship I had with Rev. Wright has changed, he said. "I don't think he showed much concern for me ... and what we are trying to do in this campaign."

"My reaction has more to do with what I want this campaign to be about.... in some ways, what Rev. Wright said yesterday directly contradicts everything that I've done during my life. It contradicts how i was raise and the setting in which I was raised; it contradicts my decision to pursue a career of public service. It contradicts the issues that I've worked on politically."

Here's the video of the press conference:

But as Ambinder notes, the cable news media is already practicing "psychological pornography" analyzing thoughts behind the thinking.

3:30 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

McCain Gives Specifics on Health Care Plan

Arizona Senator John McCain visited a Tampa, Florida cancer center today, and talked up his plan to encourage a more competitive individual market for health insurance.

McCain called the lifesaving care at Tampa's Moffitt Cancer Center an inspiration. The Republican presidential hopeful says the best of American health care should be available to everyone no matter where they work or how much money they have. Too often, he says, the health care system falls short of that goal. McCain has proposed an overhaul that's designed to help more people to buy their own insurance, rather than getting it through an employer or doing without.

"The health plan you chose would be as good as any that an employer could choose for you. It would be yours and your family's health-care plan, and yours to keep. When families are informed about medical choices, they are more capable of making their own decisions, less likely to choose the most expensive and often unnecessary options, and are more satisfied with their choices"

Proponents say having individuals shop for health care would create more competition and lower costs. McCain also proposed tax credits to subsidize the private insurance and letting customers shop for insurance across state lines.

Critics warn those individual policies could be too expensive for older people and those with serious medical conditions. They also say shopping for health care would be fine for young, healthy people, but provide little protection for the sick and elderly.

-- Scott Horsley

3:16 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Indianapolis Star Interviews Sen. Hillary Clinton

Last week we brought you Sen. Obama, today we bring you Sen. Hillary Clinton talking to the editorial board of the Indianapolis Star.

Continue reading "Indianapolis Star Interviews Sen. Hillary Clinton" »

3:00 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Economists: Gas Tax Holiday No Break from High Prices

So just how effective would a break from the gas tax be for Americans this summer? Sens. John McCain and Hillary Clinton say it would be a big help. In Greensboro, N.C. today, Clinton said "I would also consider having a gas tax holiday this summer because we're going to drive a lot of small independent truckers out of business." President Bush agrees with Clinton and McCain.

Sen. Barack Obama, meanwhile, says its all just a mirage, that most Americans would at most get a $30 break - about half a tank.

So what's the real scoop on the gas tax?

Well, psychologically it might give people a sense of a break, but most economists believe that Obama is closer to the reality here. The real bottom line is that a gas tax holiday might actually lead to an increase in gas prices.

Here the argument that most economists are making:

* Gasoline is subject to supply and demand. It's pretty simple economics. If the price is lower, people will drive more. Which means that oil refineries will have to try and produce more but industry experts say refineries are already working at full capacity to meet the current demand. There won't be enough to go around and that means that prices will rise in order to dampen demand. And as Prof. Edinaldo Tebaldi, who teaches international economics and trade, told the Providence Journal, gasoline is in international demand; regardless of what we do here, demand from overseas will keep the price high.

Continue reading "Economists: Gas Tax Holiday No Break from High Prices" »

12:28 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

Names to Watch at Rezko Trial: Rove and Hastert

Most people have been waiting for the name of Sen. Barack Obama to surface during the trial of Chicago developer and political fixer Antoin "Tony" Rezko. (And it did recently, when it appeared in connection with a party held at Rezko's home in April of 2004 on behalf of Nadhmi Auchi, a British citizen appealing a fraud conviction in France. The Swamp writes that Rezko was allegedly trying to partner up with Auchi and may have been using an Obama appearance to demonstrate clout. Obama doesn't deny that he might have been there, but says he doesn't remember the event.)

But the names who have been attracting the most attention over the past few days have been former Bush political guru Karl Rove and former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

Last week, prosecutors told the judge in the Rezko trial that it has a witness [former Illinois state official Ali Ata] that would testify that he has a conversation with Rezko where it was alleged that Karl Rove was working to remove the Chicago U.S. attorney, Patrick Fitzgerald. As Newsweek notes, the revelation immediately produced reverberations in Washington.

Democrats in Congress now want to question Ata. They believe he can help buttress their theory that Rove played a key role in discussions that led to the firings of U.S. attorneys at the Justice Department in 2006. The House Judiciary Committee "intends to investigate the facts and circumstances alleged in this testimony," panel chairman Rep. John Conyers of Michigan said in a statement to Newsweek.

Ata will allegedly testify that he has a conversation with Rezko where he was told that Bob Kjellander, a prominent GOP state lobbyist, was talking to Rove about getting rid of Fitzgerald.

Continue reading "Names to Watch at Rezko Trial: Rove and Hastert" »

10:49 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Could Wright's Appearances Actually Help Obama?

The New York Times has an interesting take on this year's main controversy and how it has played out over the past few days. While pundits are saying that Wright's fiery appearances at the NAACP meeting in New York and at the National Press Club will hurt Obama, the Times believes they may help him.

"Cable news commentators have focused on the damage the spectacle inflicted on the embattled Obama campaign. And while Mr. Wright's behavior may not have been politic for Mr. Obama, it was politics as usual for the television age. In at least one way, Mr. Wright's star turn may have helped defuse his importance in the long run. The pastor who was thrust upon the public consciousness as a caricature of the angry black man emerged after an exhaustive series of performances as a more familiar television persona: a voluble, vain and erudite entertainer, a born televangelist who quotes Ralph Ellison as well as the Bible and mixes highfalutin academic trope with salty street talk."

Thoughts? Have Wright's 'in-your-face' appearances actually made it easier for Obama to get distance from him that if Wright had just stayed out of sight?

9:51 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (26) | e-mail post

 

Candidates' Take Different Paths to Health Care

Sen. John McCain is planning to flesh out his ideas on health care coverage today, so we'll have more details later.

But until, the Indianapolis Star's offers a concise guide to the three-remaining candidates' health care plans, based on what we know so far. Obama and Clinton have been arguing for several months about whose plan covers more Americans. McCain really differs from the Democrats in that he doesn't believe in universal health-care coverage of any kind. (Elizabeth Edwards has been a consistent critic of McCain's health care plan, which she has called "a version of what President Bush is trying to do.")

You can find the Star's short-hand guide here.

Here's McCain's latest health care ad:

7:55 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Polls Shows Obama Better at Retaining Democrats

Polls are like the weather. If you don't like what you see, wait a couple of days and something new will come along. Sometimes you only have to wait a few hours.

Late yesterday Zogby released a poll that finds almost the exact opposite of the AP-Ipsos poll which showed Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 9-point lead over Sen. John McCain. The Zogby poll shows McCain with a 10-point lead over Clinton 44%-34% (with 16 percent undecided). But he trails Sen. Barack Obama by three points, 45%-42% (with 8 percent undecided).

But it's the surrounding details that are interesting. For instance, in the McCain-Clinton battle Ralph Nader and Bob Barr received 3% and 4% respectively. But in the Obama-McCain matchup, Nader drops to 1% and Barr to 3%.

Even more interesting, the poll puts a twist on previous polls that have shown that more Clinton supporters would vote for McCain if Obama was the nominee than vice-versa.

The online poll, conducted April 25-28, 2008, shows that Obama retains 80% support among Democrats, compared to just 66% of Democrats who said they will back Clinton against McCain, the survey shows. Against Obama, McCain wins 11% of the Democratic support, while he wins 10% support against Clinton. [This would seem to indicate than many Democrats just won't vote --or might voter for Nader -- if In the McCain-Clinton race, 12% of Democrats said they were undecided, compared to just 4% of Democrats who were undecided in the McCain-Obama race.

The survey included 7,653 likely voters nationwide. Zogby uses interactive online polls, which some experts say aren't as reliable as operator-based phone calls to respondents, but Zogby believes otherwise. Zogby says there is only a +/- of 1.1% on the poll.

7:30 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

House Republicans Say Clinton is Tougher Candidate

It seems the Republicans are changing their minds about who would be the tougher candidate to face in the fall. Rep. Tom Cole, the GOP's campaign chief now says Sen. Hillary Clinton would be the tougher candidate for Republicans to face in the fall, rather than Sen. Barack Obama.

"I think he is the weaker (Democratic) candidate," Cole told reporters Monday. Obama "is by any definition very liberal, to the left of Hillary Clinton, in a center-right country," Cole said. "That is very, very helpful to us."

It's an interesting change, but it also begs the question, why is he saying it?

Marc Ambinder of theAtlantic.com thing Cole is "attempting a fumbling jijitsu move by luring the Democrats into a false sense of remorse about almost nominating Obama because Obama, in fact, would be the more difficult candidate."

"Indeed, Democratic superdelegates might actually pay attention to what Tom Cole says. Or he could be telling the truth. I suspect that the actual difference in drag between Clinton, once nominated, and Obama, once nominated, would be fairly minimal, perhaps only a few knots' worth of headwind. In any event, the Democrats are likely to pick up House seats, so even assuming that Cole is telling the truth, what we're debating here is the size of the Democratic margin over Republicans."

5:17 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

No Discounts for McCain in Homewood, Alabama

Last week NPR's Peter Overby reported on how Sen. John McCain had gotten a special deal on Rosewood Hall in Homewood, Alabama for a fundraiser. Mayor Barry McCulley, who had arranged the special deal on the hall (about one-quarter of its normal price),said he was just trying to get people to use the hall on a Monday night, normally a slow time.

Democrats complained, however, them weren't able to get a similar deal. (McCulley is not a Republican.)

But Peter e-mailed tonight to pass along this news:

Discount, new low rate or whatever it was, the McCain campaign won't get it. Homewood Mayor McCulley said Monday that he was wrong in letting McCain's campaign pay a reduced fee for its fundraiser at Rosewood Hall, and he's asked the campaign to pay the original cost.

"Short of that," he wrote in a press release, "I will find a way to pay the difference myself."

Serious Straight Talk Express here. And McCulley never used the phrases "I regret the appearance" or "mistakes were made."

Guess times must have been hot for the mayor in Homewood.

6:55 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Obama Picks Up Superdelegate and Clinton Too ... Maybe

Sen. Barack Obama picked up the endorsement of another superdelegate today. New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman cited Obama's "ability to rise above the issues that divide us, end the war in Iraq, bring universal health care, and make America energy independent."

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that a source close to North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley says the governor will endorse Sen. Hillary Clinton tomorrow. Easley would be just the second superdelegate from North Carolina to endorse Clinton. Six of the state's 17 superdelegates have endorsed Obama.

Earlier today, Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean repeated his demand that superdelegates make up their minds by June 3.

6:05 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post

 

Clinton, Obama Neck and Neck in Democratic Race

Two polls out today show just how tight the race has become between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.

The Gallup Daily Tracking polls has Obama up by a point, 47% to 46%, but that's basically a tie when you factor in the margin of error of error of +/- 3 percent. It's also close in a contest with Sen. John McCain, with Clinton leading by 3 points, 47% to 44% and Obama and McCain tied at 45%.

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll has good news for Clinton. It shows her beating McCain in a matchup 50% to 41% (which plays to her "electability" argument) while Obama leads McCain 46% to 44%.

The interesting question that these polls seem to ask is, with everything that has been thrown at Clinton and particularly Obama in the past few weeks -- sniper fire in Bosnia, Rev. Weight, Bill Clinton's comments about race, Obama's bitter remarks -- why is McCain still either behind (in one case signifcantly) or tied with his Democratic rivals? This may be why some Republicans are concerned that as well as he has done, McCain could have problems in the fall.

"The truth of the matter is if the race becomes a race about the issues environment, as opposed to a race about personality and stature differences and ideology, McCain has a real problem," Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio told USAToday. "If we're fighting over whose policy is better on the economy as opposed to who's outside the mainstream in America, we've got a problem as Republicans."

But if McCain runs the right kind of campaign, says Fabrizio, "he could win in a landslide."

2:26 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

McCain Works to Improve Economic Credentials

It's not an easy feat - creating an economic plan which appeals to the Republican's conservative base, but at the same time can attracts independents and maybe even some Democrats. But the Christian Science Monitor reports that GOP presumptive presidential nominee John McCain has been trying to do just that over the past few weeks.

But after eight years of the Bush administration and at a time when the economy is not as strong as many in the GOP would like, it won't be an easy task.

"McCain is trying to distance himself from Bush on the economy, but the eventual Democratic nominee will do everything they can to make him look like he's changed his first name to 'George,' " says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.

If "McCainomics" can be described in a sentence, it might be this: traditional GOP tax-cutting, with a dash of populism sprinkled on top.

To begin with, McCain would make President Bush's tax cuts permanent, rather than let them expire in coming years, as current law calls for. Critics say this is something of a switch for a lawmaker who opposed the tax cuts as too expensive when they were proposed. He would eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax, which has eaten into the incomes of middle-class Americans. This move would cost $60 billion a year, according to campaign estimates.

McCain would double the personal exemption for dependents from $3,500 to $7,000, reduce the corporate tax rate from 35 to 25 percent, and establish a permanent new research-and-development tax credit. At the April 15 speech outlining his economic plan, he also called for the elimination of the federal gasoline tax this summer -- a move that, strictly speaking, the next president would have to go back in time to accomplish.

But Saboto says if the recession is not "short and shallow," it makes McCain's job all that much harder, even with the Democrats locked in a bruising nomination battle.

12:46 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Supreme Court Rejects Voter I.D. Challenge

The U.S. Supreme Court has rejected a challenge to Indiana's voter-ID laws that requires residents to show a government-approved ID before voting in an election. In a 6-3 decision written by Justice John Paul Stevens, the ScotusBlog reports that "the court ruled that the evidence offered against the requirement in Indiana did not support a challenge to the law as written."

The voter ID ruling may turn out to be a significant victory for Republicans at election time, since the requirement for proof of identification is likely to fall most heavily on voters long assumed to be identified with the Democrats -- particularly minority and poor voters. The GOP for years has been actively pursuing a campaign against what it calls "voter fraud," and the Court's ruling Monday appears to validate that effort, at least in part. The main opinion said states have a valid interest in preventing voting by those not entitled to do so, even if there is no specific proof of that kind of fraud.

But the ruling does not bar future challenges to the law, since three of the justices said the problem was that not enough evidence was presented to overturn the law. Taken with the votes of the three dissenters, "a majority of the Court has not barred all future challenges to voter ID laws, provided future cases seek to test such laws they were actually applied in an election."

10:47 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Wright Fires Back at Media in Press Club Speech

In a fiery speech and question and answer session at the National Press Club in Washington, Rev. Jeremiah Wright defended himself against allegations that he is unpatriotic, that he thinks American deserved the 9/11 attack and answered questions about why he is coming out to defend himself at this point in time.

Wright was blunt and unapologetic. He said most of the attacks in the media were not on him personally, but on the black church and black church traditions.

When asked if he was unapologetic, he said, "I served six years in the military. Does that make me patriotic? How many years did [Vice President Dick] Cheney serve?" [Cheney received several deferments and never served in Vietnam.]

Asked about his 9/11 comments, he pointed out that most people had not heard the entire speech, and that he was actually quoting a U.S. ambassador. But he also quoted the Bible, saying you sow what you reap, and that Jesus said treat other people the way you want to be treated. "If you bring terrorism to the rest of the world, you can't expect it not to come back at you at some point," said Wright.

When asked about his motivation for speaking out now, Wright said that he had to speak out against people who were smearing his religious tradition.

You can watch the entire speech at CSpan.
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UPDATE: Mark Ambinder at theAtlantic.com has an interesting take on the Wright appearances. Wright has apparently decided to throw Obama "under the bus" so to speak, and the Obama campaign is of two minds about his speeches. On the one hand, they don't think Wright's speeches will rehabilitate his image for white Americans. But the more he talks, the easier it is for Obama to gain some separation from Wright.

" ... Wright's decision to publicly break up with Obama by essentializing him as a politician may well generate some distance between himself and Obama; perhaps the public may perceive the distance; the more outre Wright becomes, the easier it is for Obama to say -- look at what he says, and look at what I say. The campaign is also thankful that Wright decided to speak out now, rather than in, say, October."

10:30 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (22) | e-mail post

 

African-American Scholar Links Obama, Wright to King

Author and social commentator Dr. Michael Eric Dyson presented a fascinating overview of the relationship between Sen. Barack Obama, Rev. Jeremiah Wright and the late Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King. Interviewed by host Bob Edwards on the Bob Edwards Weekend Show, Dyson said that we have to view both men in terms of the two periods in the life of Dr. King.

Obama is the pre-1965 King. The one the holiday is named for, said Dyson. The King who spoke of brotherhood and non-violence. The one who doesn't scare white people, who they could incorporate into their world view.

Wright is the post-'65 King. The one Americans know little about. The King who spoke out against the war in Vietnam. The King who said that most whites in America were racists. The King who spoke out against social and economic injustice in America. People remember that King was murdered in Memphis, Dyson says. But they often forget why he was there - not to promote equality, but to help lead a strike of garbage workers in the city.

Dyson said that people forget that when King gave his "seminal" anti-Vietnam speech on April 4, 1967 at New York's Riverside Church, he was condemned by many white - and even black - pundits and church leaders for "going too far."

But Dyson says that it's important to understand both men in order to understand the black experience in America.

9:49 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

More than 100,000 Votes Already Cast in N.C.

The Raleigh News and Observer reports that more than 100,000 people have voted in the North Carolina primary. The state has a one-stop early voting program that allows people to register and vote at the same time.

Meanwhile, the paper profiled voters in Wake County who went to the polls right after church on Sunday.

"Weekends are a time when people are available," said John Gilbert, chairman of the Wake elections board. "It's not like 40 years ago when we still had blue laws and nobody was open."

And it's not as if Sunday voting is a new idea, Gilbert said. Nations around the world have used Sundays for elections.

Last week, Sunday Soapbox looked at why we vote on Tuesdays. (It was a mid-19th century effort to give rural Americans a chance to vote.) Technically, people are supposed to get time off to vote, but this doesn't always happen. Is it time for elections to move to the weekends? Or should we go the Oregon route and allow people to move by mail?

8:15 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Georgia Democrats Say Obama Campaign Gives Lift

Democrats in Georgia are saying that the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama will give them the best chance they've had in years to wage a competitive fight against Republicans in the southern state.

"We're seeing a lot of enthusiasm for our candidates that we haven't seen in past cycles," State Rep. Rob Teilhet (D-Smyrna), the man charged with leading candidate recruitment for House Democrats in Georgia, told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He said Obama has already given the party a lift.

Boosting Democratic hopes is the fact that many Georgia Republicans are saying publicly and privately that they are concerned about Obama's influence on the November elections and about the impact their own very public infighting will have on their base.

All of this has likely made Teilhet's job easier than it would have been in past years. In 2006, the last time the 180 House seats were up for election, 129 races were uncontested, meaning there was only one candidate on the ballot. Of the remaining 51 races, only 10 were competitive, meaning the outcome was decided by about 10 percentage points.

While Teilhet declined to discuss specifics of the party's strategy, he said the party has identified 30 to 35 House districts that "are either competitive or may become competitive."

Unlike the past, when Republicans excelled at organizing, the Democrats are using "Vote Builder," a high-tech system of tracking registered voters, voter contact and demographic data that the party has lacked. The Obama campaign has helped add thousands of names to the system.

Republicans are more than aware of the problem. Ben Fry, executive director of the Georgia Republican Party, said he "won't let controversies over Obama's comments about Pennsylvania voters, or the controversy over his former pastor's rhetoric, lull him into thinking that an Obama bounce won't materialize."

7:43 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Wright Gives Fiery, Unapologetic Speech to NAACP

Rev. Jeremiah Wright is not making any apologies for preaching the gospel in the way he things best. The Detroit News reports that he gave an "unapologetic" speech Sunday to an NAACP dinner. He was "alternately fiery and humorous as he defended the preaching that has taken center stage in the presidential campaign."

"I am not running for the Oval Office...I have been running for Jesus for a long, long time, and I'm not tired yet."

While Wright's remarks have been condemned by Republican politicians and pundits to Obama and his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, the minister got a rousing standing ovation at Sunday night's Detroit NAACP Fight For Freedom Fund Dinner before a crowd of nearly 10,000.

Before Wright spoke, a series of Detroit religious and civil rights leaders defended him against what they called unfair media attacks and praised his ministry. Wright is "a great champion of freedom," said the Rev. Kenneth Flowers of Greater New Mount Moriah Baptist Missionary Church and the head of the local NAACP's religious affairs council. Flowers compared Wright to biblical prophets and the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. as a man "who's not trying to please the establishment, but to please our God."

Here's some video from the speech:

You can find video of the entire speech here.

On Sunday morning, The Dallas Morning News reports that two different services of 4,000 worshippers each at Friendship-West Baptist Church in Dallas, Texas gave Wright standing ovations.

"We know better," said Rickey Hill, executive pastor at Friendship-West. "It's a tremendous blessing to have him here, especially after all the vilification."

6:30 AM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

In 2004, MacAuliffe Warned Michigan Not to Move Primary

Four years ago, Terry McAuliffe, top Clinton campaign aide, was the chairman of the Democratic National Committee -- the position now held by former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. And he had a problem with Michigan. How do we know this? He wrote about it in his book "What a Party!: My Life Among Democrats: Presidents, Candidates, Donors, Activists, Alligators and Other Wild Animals"

As Mark Nickolas note in his blog "Political Base," Sen. Carl Levin told McAuliffe that he was going to take Michigan "outside the primary window." McAuliffe told Levin that ""I will not let you break this entire nominating process for one state. The rules are the rules." The story continues on page 325.

"If I allow you to do that, the whole system collapses," I said. "We will have chaos. I let you make your case to the DNC, and we voted unanimously and you lost."

He kept insisting that they were going to move up Michigan on their own, even though if they did that, they would lose half their delegates. By that point Carl and I were leaning toward each other over a table in the middle of the room, shouting and dropping the occasional expletive.

"You won't deny us seats at the convention," he said.

"Carl, take it to the bank," I said. "They will not get a credential. The closest they'll get to Boston will be watching it on television. I will not let you break this entire nominating process for one state. The rules are the rules. If you want to call my bluff, Carl, you go ahead and do it."

We glared at each other some more, but there was nothing much left to say. I was holding all the cards and Levin knew it.

MacAuliff'e position has changed. He's now in the position of Levin, arguing that despite breaking the rules, delegates from Michigan (and Florida) should be seated at the Democratic National Convention.
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UPDATE: The current DNC chairman, Howard Dean told "Meet the Press" on Sunday that the Florida and Michigan delegates should be seated, but he "signaled no intention to intervene in the dispute."

"They're very important states, but that doesn't mean they're more important than everybody else," Dean said.

Dean signaled that he will not try to influence the deliberations of the party's Rules & Bylaws Committee, which has scheduled a meeting for May 31 to discuss Michigan and Florida. Under consideration will be challenges from the two states, seeking reinstatement of half their elected delegates and full slates of superdelegates.

"I don't know what the solution is going to be. The rules committee is going to start working on that now," Dean said. "Nobody will be satisfied with the outcome because nobody is going to get everything they want."

2:53 PM ET | 04-27-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Elizabeth Edwards Knocks Media's "Cliff Notes" Coverage

Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of former Senator and presidential candidate John Edwards, thinks the media -- the mainstream media in particular -- spends too much time covering the rancor of the presidential campaign instead of the "the information about the candidates' priorities, policies and principles -- information that voters will need to choose the next president -- too often did not make the cut."

Writing in The New York Times, Edwards laments how little time the MSM spends actually talking about substance.

"The vigorous press that was deemed an essential part of democracy at our country's inception is now consigned to smaller venues, to the Internet and, in the mainstream media, to occasional articles. I am not suggesting that every journalist for a mainstream media outlet is neglecting his or her duties to the public. And I know that serious newspapers and magazines run analytical articles, and public television broadcasts longer, more probing segments.

"But I am saying that every analysis that is shortened, every corner that is cut, moves us further away from the truth until what is left is the Cliffs Notes of the news, or what I call strobe-light journalism, in which the outlines are accurate enough but we cannot really see the whole picture."

Edwards says it's easier to find, say, Barack Obama's bowling score that what former presidential candidate Joe Biden's health care policy was. She writes that while she was campaign with her husband, she saw the media gravitate towards narratives, like characters in a novel.

Continue reading "Elizabeth Edwards Knocks Media's "Cliff Notes" Coverage" »

11:52 AM ET | 04-27-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

N.C. GOP Use of Race in Ad Is Nothing New

Rob Christensen of the Raleigh News and Observer has an interesting look at the way the Republican Party in North Carolina has used race against Democratic ... and Republican ... candidates, going back 32 years. And Christensen reports that the sequence is almost always the same: the state GOP runs a racially tinged ad, the national party or candidate renounces it, and the ad sometime is -- and sometimes isn't -- pulled.

And it's not just Democrats who've been on the receiving end.

Christensen points to 1976 when then-California Gov. Ronald Reagan was fighting President Gerald Ford for the party's presidential nomination.

Sen. [Jesse] Helms' political organization had taken over the Reagan campaign in North Carolina. Tom Ellis, the Raleigh lawyer who was Helms' chief strategist, played the race card. The Ford campaign had released a list of potential vice presidential running mates that included Sen. Edward Brooke of Massachusetts, the first black U.S. senator of the 20th century. The Helms organization printed leaflets with the headline: "Ford suggests Brooke as a possible partner."

When Reagan learned of the flier he ordered a halt -- although whether it was actually stopped is an open question. "The governor has never campaigned on race, never used it as an issue and never will and feels strongly about it," Michael Deaver, Reagan's chief of staff, said at the time.

Sometimes the state GOP tried to keep African-Americans away from the polls. In 1990, when Helms was being challenged by former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt, an African-American architect, the party sent out 125,000 "mailed 125,000 postcards into black neighborhoods warning them that they might commit voter fraud if they have recently moved, in an effort to depress black turnout."

Christensen offers several other examples as well.

8:39 AM ET | 04-27-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Moyers' Interview with Rev. Jeremiah Wright

PBS host Bill Moyers interview the Rev. Jeremiah Wright on his show last night, Bill Moyers Journal.

Here is the link to the video of the interview.

Here is the transcript of the interview:

April 25, 2008

BILL MOYERS: Welcome to the JOURNAL.

Barack Obama's pastor was in the news again this week. North Carolina Republicans are preparing to run an ad tying Obama to some controversial sound bites lifted from Reverend Jeremiah Wright's sermons. And CBS and MSNBC led their broadcasts with reports about the ad.

DEAN REYNOLDS: In North Carolina the Republicans put their ad on the internet and say they're going to broadcast it as well.

KEITH OLBERMANN: Republican hit job the North Carolina GOP plans a Willie Horton style TV ad against Obama.

BILL MOYERS: Jeremiah Wright will be in Washington Monday for a news conference at the National Press Club -- his first since the controversy erupted over those incendiary sound bites. You've heard them; who hasn't heard them: Wright suggesting the terrorist attacks of 9/11 were payback for American policy; Wright repeating the canard heard often in black communities that the u.s. government spread HIV in those communities; Wright seemingly calling on God to damn America.

But just who is this man? That's the question I asked when those sound bites began popping up. I'd heard the name Jeremiah Wright -- his church in Chicago belongs to the fellowship of the United Church of Christ. I joined a UCC church on Long Island 40 years ago and attend Riverside Church in New York City, which is affiliated with American Baptists and the UCC. But I couldn't remember ever having met Reverend Wright. So I wanted to know more about the man, the ministry, and the church.

BILL MOYERS: In 1972, Jeremiah Wright became pastor of Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago. He inherited a struggling congregation of just 9887 members.

REVEREND WRIGHT: I have a friend who every time you greet him, every time you ask him how you doing, he answers, just trying to make it man, just trying to make it.

Continue reading "Moyers' Interview with Rev. Jeremiah Wright" »

3:16 PM ET | 04-26-2008 | permalink | comments (23) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Focusing on Small Towns in Oregon, North Carolina

It was a strategy that paid off in Pennsylvania, a state solidly in Sen. Hillary Clinton's "column." But she is continuing her focus on small towns in two other states that are either strongly in favor of or leading towards Sen. Barack Obama, North Carolina and Oregon.

The Oregonian reports that as in previous states, many of the visits to small towns will be made by Sen. Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton.

"Sen. Clinton has been performing extremely well with working class union households and rural Democrats," Josh Kardon, chairman of Clinton's Oregon steering committee, said in a telephone interview Thursday. "We are going to take this campaign to places that most presidential candidates never venture."

The paper says the Clintons are focusing on counties that went solidly for President George Bush in the last election, but still have more registered Democrats than Republicans.

The Raleigh News and Observer reports that Sen. Clinton "finds common ground with white voters in the state's military towns and the mountains."

Many rural and small-town whites in the South are now registered Republicans. But North Carolina still has more white Democrats than most Southern states, and they have been a prime target for Clinton and her husband, the former president.

People interviewed by the paper cited the way Clinton behaved during the Monica Lewinsky scandal as a reason for their support, and that some were leery of Obama because they weren't sure "of his religious beliefs."

3:10 PM ET | 04-26-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Top Clinton Fundraiser Bolts to Obama Camp

Gabriel Guerra-Mondragon, who served as an ambassador to Chile during Bill Clinton's presidency and became a top fundraiser for Sen. Hillary Clinton, has jumped ship to the Obama campaign.

The Los Angeles Times reports that sources inside the Obama camp said he had "became 'concerned about the tone of the race.' " Guerra-Mondragon, who had raised $300,000 for Clinton, will now use his fundraising skills for Obama.

The Washington Post's The Trail caught up with Guerra-Mondragon, who confirmed the reason behind the switch.

"We're just bleeding each other out," Guerra-Mondragon said, when asked about the switch. "Looking at it as coldly as I can, I just don't see how Senator Clinton can overcome Senator Obama with delegates and popular votes. I want this fight to be over, the quicker the better."

The former Clintonite said the decision to jump ship to join Obama's team "was a very, very difficult decision for me to make. I am an old and longtime friend of Senator Clinton. And I continue to think she is a fantastic and formidable person. But I am first of all a Democrat."

Clinton aides said they did not see more "HillRaisers" (as the top fundraisers are called) following Guerra-Mondragon. "Pennsylvania did the job of calming any nerves that existed," said Jay Carson, a campaign spokesman.

8:13 AM ET | 04-26-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

McCain Attacks Obama on Ayers

Sen. John McCain attacked Sen. Barack Obama Friday for his association with former 60s radical Prof. William Ayers. Talking to conservative bloggers, McCain said that "I think not only a repudiation, but an apology for ever having anything to do with an unrepentant terrorist is due the American people," McCain said.

Ben Smith at Politico.com speculates that McCain has chosen Ayers as his line of attack, rather than Rev. Jeremiah Wright, "perhaps because he has his own troublesome pastor." Smith is referring to McCain's problems over the past few days after comments made by Pastor Jim Hagee.

The Obama campaign was quick to respond via e-mail, saying "McCain's use of 'the politics of association' undermines his credibility." The e-mail quotes McCain Senior Adviser, Charlie Black: "What Senator McCain has said repeatedly is that these candidates cannot be held accountable for all the views of people who endorse them or people who befriend them ... But John McCain believes is that Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton should be held accountable for their public policy views, the things we've described before, big government versus smaller government."

7:46 AM ET | 04-26-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee to Meet May 31st

Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com reports that the rules and bylaws committee of the Democratic National Committee will meet on May 31st to hear two challenges (from Michigan and Florida) that "could change the delegate math just as the primary season is about to close."

But as Ambinder notes, the meeting -- coming so late in May -- could be too late for Clinton.

Here's the text of the e-mail calling the meeting:

TO: DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Members

FROM: Alexis Herman & Jim Roosevelt, Jr., Co-Chairs

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC)

SUBJECT: Meeting Announcement--May 31, 2008

DATE: April 25, 2008

Realizing that members have very busy schedules, we wanted to notify you as soon as possible that the RBC will meet on Saturday, May 31, 2008 in Washington, D.C. We are asking members to arrive on Friday, May 30, 2008 in time for a private informal dinner with us. While we expect the RBC meeting to last most of the day on Saturday, we are asking members not to make their departure plans until Sunday.

The main item of business on the Committee's agenda will be the consideration of two pending challenges.

We hope you are able to attend this very important RBC meeting. Further information, including meeting agenda and meeting logistics, will be forwarded to you in the near future.

Please note that this is an official meeting of the RBC. Therefore, we would like to remind members of the attendance requirement established in the Bylaws (Article Two, Section 10.(g)). Members who miss three consecutive RBC meetings are deemed to have resigned from the Committee. Registering a proxy, while important for establishing a quorum and assuring your vote is represented, does not count for the purpose of attendance at a meeting.

4:29 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Obama Talks to Indy Star Editorial Board

It's live at the moment (3:53 p.m. Friday) but it will be archive for those coming in later.

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UPDATE: We've taken out the link to the Star's live video page. Here is the link to the recorded version of the sessions. (It's broken into sections, or else we would just post it here.)

3:50 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Wright Appearences Could CauseTrouble for Obama

By now, only penguins in Antarctica are unaware that Rev. Jeremiah Wright will appear on Bill Moyers Journal tonight on PBS. It will probably be the show's biggest audience in many years..

PBS has released some snippets from the show. Here's the video (just in case you haven't seen it one of the 10,000 times it's been shown on cable news networks today):

Conversation about the snippets (which, in that post-modern way things work, is talking about the snippets first used against Wright) centers on the "He's a politician, he says what politician say, I'm a pastor, I say what I have to say as a pastor ..." Reaction is mixed on the effect of these remarks on Obama.

But just in case tonight's appearance doesn't generate enough headlines, Wright will also appear at a 10,000 seat NAACP dinner on Sunday night. And then on Monday, Wright will appear at the national Pres Club in D.C. Sometimes the Press Club has trouble generating media interests in events that happen there - that won't be a problem this time.

3:35 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (23) | e-mail post

 

McCain: Hagee's Comments About New Orleans 'Nonsense'

After reading this quote, it easy to see Sen. John McCain's frustration. During his trip to New Orleans Thursday, he was asked about Pastor John Hagge's comments on Tuesday that God was angry at New Orelans for plans to hold a gay parade and Hurricane Katrina was the result.

Here was McCain's reply as reported by Fox News:

McCain: "It's nonsense, it's nonsense, it's nonsense, it's nonsense, it's nonsense. I don't have anything additional to say. It's nonsense, it's nonsense, it's nonsense, I don't have anything more to say....it's nonsense. I reject it categorically."

Q: Do you regret accepting his endorsement?

McCain: It's nonsense. I don't have anything more to say about that. Of course--I apologize for that. It's nonsense. I reject that categorically and I would point out there's a lot of people who have endorsed me. They support my views. That does not mean that I support--would I consider repudiating his endorsement? I certainly condemn those parts of his remarks. I continue to appreciate his support for the state of Israel and for many of the good things that he and his church has done. But I repudiate as strongly as possible those remarks and those of the Catholic church as well.

McCain had actively sought Hagee's endorsement (according to Hagee). But ever since he did, he's spent a lot of time "repudiating" comments made by Hagee, particularly about Catholics.

McCain said last Sunday that accepting Hagee's endorsement was probably "a mistake" but that he's still glad to have it.

Do you think Hagee could become McCain's Rev. Jeremiah Wright? Obama sat in Wright's church for 20 years, but McCain went after Hagee's endorsement, knowing what he had said about other groups. Is there a difference?

Does Obama need to go farther in terms of distancing himself from Wright? Does McCain have to renounce Hagee's endorsement?

2:30 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (16) | e-mail post

 

Presidential Politics From the Ground Up

Hard to believe, but not everything the presidential candidates do makes news. One example: John McCain was in Birmingham, Ala., this past Monday, and held a $100-per-person fundraiser in the suburb of Homewood. Not exactly we-bring-you-special-coverage material.

But even a non-story can have a story behind it.

It seems that the "young professionals" event - that's the campaign's description - was held at Rosewood Hall, a facility in Homewood City Hall. Also seems that Mayor Barry McCulley knocked down the cost of renting the two rooms. Normal fees: $1,250. Invoice to the McCain campaign: $300.

And one more thing: the usual $100 set-up fee. The mayor had two city jail inmates set up the rooms, for free. A McChain gang, someone said to me.

The Birmingham News brought this campaign curiosity to light.

I called Mayor McCulley to see if the News had gotten it right. "I'm sure you were shocked" by the story, he said. "So was I."

Continue reading "Presidential Politics From the Ground Up" »

1:49 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Sunday Soapbox Asks Why Do We Vote on Tuesdays

Last week we told you about Weekend Sunday Edition's new blogging feature, Sunday Soapbox.

Well, in that short week, we've already added a new blogger -- or should we say vlogger -- to the mix

Jacob Soboroff will be doing some video blogging for Sunday Soapbox. Jacob is executive director of Why Tuesday?, a non-partisan group working to increase voter participation. Jacob also contributes video reports about Los Angeles news, media and sense of place to LA Observed, and was a contributor to the PBS series Wired Science, a production of KCET Los Angeles and Wired magazine. In college Jacob was a part-time advance man to New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and presidential candidate Howard Dean.

Jacob's first piece is fascinating. It's about, well, why the U.S. votes on Tuesdays.

Did you know that since 1945 the U.S. ranks 139th of 172 countries in the world when it comes to voter turnout? (Do they have elections in the other 32?) And that the most common reason given by people for not voting is that they are too busy?

So why do we vote on Tuesdays anyway? Turns out that it's the result of a mid-19th century law designed to give people who worked in agrarian industries a chance to vote. Well, we don't live in an agrarian society any more, so why not move it to a day when more people can vote? Like Saturday?

Jacob set out to ask presidential candidates that very question. You can see the result here on Sunday Soapbox.

1:18 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

McCain Fields Questions About Iraq-New Orleans

It's a question that many Americans may have: why are we spending so much money in Iraq when there are so many needs at home?

And yesterday, during his visit to New Orleans, Sen. John McCain was asked that question twice.

The Times-Picayune reports that McCain, who was in New Orleans as part of his Time for Action tour, attacked the Bush administration for its handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. He even said that the blame went all the way to the president. As if to point the differences between himself and Bush, McCain said his first response the storm would have been to fly to the area immediately and inspect the damage. President Bush didn't go for several days and flew over the area.

But McCain was challenged by Jonathan Harris-Eisen, 15, of Amherst, Mass., a volunteer in the city's 9th ward. Harris-Eisen asked ""How would you prioritize Iraq (compared) with the rebuilding here, because we are spending a fraction of what we're spending in Iraq on this disaster?"

McCain didn't address the disparity of money spent on Iraq and storm recovery, but he spent the next few minutes explaining how his plan for Iraq was better than withdrawal strategies from Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

"He didn't answer my question on how we allocate funds," Harris-Eisen said.

And it wasn't the last time McCain heard this kind of question. Later in the day, at a town hall-style meeting at Xavier University, McCain was asked about cuts in education, in particular at historically black colleges.

"If we can find funds to fund this war in Iraq, we can find the funds for education," said Alex Brumfield, a pharmacy student .

McCain said he understood Brumfield's frustration, but that "he supports the current strategy in Iraq and believes curtailing wasteful spending and spurring economic growth -- not tax increases -- are the answer to financing education properly."

12:05 PM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Two Stations in N.C. Will Not Air Controversial Ad

Two North Carolina TV stations, one in Raleigh and one in Charlotte, say they won't run the controversial ad that attacks Sen. Barack Obama and the two Democrats running for governor. The ad, produced by the state's Republican Party, links together the Illinois senator and Rev. Jeremiah Wright and calls Obama too extreme for North Carolina. The ad also attacks the Democratic gubernatorial candidates for backing Obama.

"I just don't think it's appropriate to be on our air," said Joe Pomilla, general manager for WSOC-TV. "I think it's offensive, and I'm not real comfortable with the implications around race."

Pomilla said the station has declined other advertisements in the past. The station is not under a legal obligation to run the ad, as it might be if a candidate and not a party were sponsoring it.

The Charlotte Observer reports that Raleigh station WRAL has also said it won't run the ad. Republican Party spokesman Brent Woodcox said he was disappointed by the decisions of two stations not to air the ad.

Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, earlier this week sent a letter to the N.C. GOP and asked them not to air the ad. And yesterday one of his top aides, Charles Black, said that the said the party would pull the ad. But last night on All Things Considered, N.C. state GOP chairwoman Linda Davies said that even if McCain phoned her personally she would not pull the ad.

McCain added to the controversy this morning in an NBC interview, saying that the state's party was "out of touch with reality" over its refusal to pull the ad.

10:40 AM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post

 

Obama Has Small Lead Over Clinton in Indiana

The Democratic Indiana primary looks like it's going to be closer than anything of the races we've seen so far.

A new poll by the Indianapolis Star-WTHR shows that Sen. Barack Obama has a three-point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton -- 41% to 38% -- with a week and a half to go before the May 6th primary. But with a margin of error of 4%, it's basically a dead heat.

But here's the real news -- 21% of those poll said they are still undecided. That's enormous block of people who have yet to make up their minds. You can bet that Indiana residents will get tired of seeing political ads on TV in the next 10 days

There is good news for Obama in the poll that may hint that the undecideds could break his way. In a match up with Republican Sen. John McCain, Obama beats him 49% to 41%. But Clinton and McCain are in a tie 46%-46%. And, by 49 percent to 35 percent, Democratic primary voters said Obama is the candidate best able to win in the general election.

The poll found that voters age 18 to 35 favor Obama over Clinton 48 percent to 34 percent, while the oldest voters, age 55 and older, prefer Clinton 43 percent to 32 percent.Obama is winning urban and suburban voters, 47 percent to 33 percent, while Clinton wins the rural areas by more than 2-to-1: 55 percent to 20 percent. Clinton is doing well among white women, who back her 48 percent to 29 percent. Among all women, though, Obama is slightly edging her out 41 percent to 40 percent.

So why isn't McCain doing better in what has been a state that has long been in the GOP safe column. The answer may hint at problems that have plagued McCain since his campaign for the White House began?

Pollster J. Ann Selzer says many Hoosiers are not happy with the Bush administration's track record. And she said McCain's lack of strength also may reflect that he "doesn't have a consistent track record on the issues conservatives care most about" and may not be a good fit for conservative Republicans in Indiana.
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UPDATE: The South-Bend Tribune's new poll shows Obama with a one-point lead 48% to 47% (5% margin of error. But the poll continues to show that Clinton's negatives are much higher than Obama's. More than twice as many people -- 48% to 235 -- think Clinton is running the more negative campaign.

9:00 AM ET | 04-25-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Activist Warns Indian Vote Could Go to McCain

Kayln Free, an American Indian activist and a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention, has a warning for Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. They had better start paying attention to Indian issues, or they'll find that Sen. John McCain will pick up a lot of support that normally goes to the Democrats.

Free is president of the Tulsa-based INDN List and the INDN Education Fund. INDN stands for Indigenous Democratic Network. Her organization has been active in electing Indian candidates to office.

The Associated Press reports that Free is "still a little peeved over the failure of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to attend the INDN-sponsored presidential forum, known as the "Prez on the Rez," in California last August."

"I'm not going to hold a grudge, but I think it was a misstep and a slap in the face" to Indian tribes, Free said. "Unfortunately, Sen. Obama did not step up to the plate, either."

Free said McCain -- who is a member of the Senate's Indian Affairs Committee -- is regarded with respect by many Indians.

"Sen. McCain has a record with Indian country. He has carried a lot of water for tribes over the years. I think it is a grave mistake for the Democratic nominee or these two candidates to think that Indian Country will be there for them just because they are the Democratic nominee."

The AP asked Free is she has made up her mind about who to vote for yet. she said no, but wants to hear "more from the candidates about who is 'the most protective of tribal sovereignty and most respectful of Indian Country.' "

7:12 PM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Hagee Repeats Charge that Katrina Result of Gay "Sin"

One of the more eye-opening statements made by controversial Christian fundamentalist Pastor John Hagee -- and Sen. John McCain supporter -- was that Hurricane Katrina was the result of God being angry at the residents of the city because of a scheduled gay parade. Hagee originally made the statement to NPR's Terri Gross. (Hagee has also made lots of disparaging comments about other groups he doesn't like - Catholics in particular.)

McCain has repudiated some of Hagee's statements -- about Catholics -- but hasn't said he didn't want Hagee's endorsement.

Tuesday in an interview with conservative talk show host Dennis Prager Wednesday, Hagee repeated his comment about New Orleans.

HAGEE: ... What happened in New Orleans looked like the curse of God, in time if New Orleans recovers and becomes the pristine city it can become it may in time be called a blessing. But at this time it's called a curse.

McCain, who is in New Orleans today on his Time for Action tour, couldn't have been all that happy with the timing of Hagee's comments. That made it twice in two days that groups or individuals that support McCain sounded off in ways that he says make him uncomfortable.

1:56 PM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (27) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Quietly Works to Scoops Up Mich. Delegates

The Detroit News had a great piece on how Sen. Hillary Clinton has quietly worked to put herself in a position to get as many as 70 percent of the delegates from Michigan if they're allowed to attend the Democratic convention.

Susan J. Demas, a political analyst for Michigan Information & Research Service, writes in an opinion piece that Clinton was "rewarded this past weekend with a significant victory at the district conventions." If Clinton does win the nomination, Demas writes, it could be her work in Michigan that was the key factor.

Buoyed by party elder support, Clinton seems likely to capture more than 60 percent of the state's 128 pledged delegates, according to an analysis by the Michigan Information & Research Service. Including the 28 superdelegates, which lean heavily in the New York senator's favor, she could win upward of 70 percent of delegates, provided that they're seated with full voting power.

That depends on the Democratic National Committee, which punished Michigan for leapfrogging the primary schedule. There is no deal yet to seat the delegation. But the Clinton camp is working overtime to ensure the elected slate is sent. Keep in mind that Clinton won 55 percent to uncommitted's 40 percent since Obama wasn't on the ballot. He has pushed for a 50-50 percent delegate split, but that proposal hasn't gained traction.

Demas says Obama should have gone for a revote, because he would have done well in the state.

1:30 PM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

Andy of Mayberry Backs Democrat for Governor

With all the attention that is being paid to the Obama attack ad that is being aired by the North Carolina Republican Party starting this evening, this one kind of escaped notice.

It shows film and TV star Andy Griffith -- famous, of course, for playing rural Sheriff Andy Taylor in the famous (and many times re-run on TVLand) "The Andy Griffith Show," set in Mayberry, North Carolina -- making a pitch for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bev Perdue.

Here is the video;

But this gives rise to other questions ... who are Opie and Barney Fife supporting? (Aunt Bee has to be a Clinton supporter.) Not to mention Goober and Gomer.

12:42 PM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Not All Superdelegates Aren't Feeling So Super

In the latest round of the superdelegate arms race, Sen. Barack Obama yesterday picked up two more endorsements -- Okla. Gov. Brad Henry and Audra Ostergard, Associate Chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party. He also got the support of 49 former supporters of Sen. John Edwards but only three are superdelegates who've already said they are supporting him.

Meanwhile, Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up one new superdelegate, Tenn. Rep. John Tanner.

That gives Clinton 259 to Obama's 235.

You would think that superdelegates would be feeling pretty good about the position they are in; after all, about 800 people have been entrusted with the task of picking the person who in a few months may become the most powerful individual in the world.

But it ain't necessarily so.

As NPR's David Welna reports, not all are not happy to be in this position at this moment in time.

Missouri House Democrat Emanuel Cleaver also backs Clinton, even though Obama won his state and his Kansas City district. Caught between conflicting loyalties, Cleaver says he is not happy at all about being a superdelegate.

"We have a process that appears to be about as stupid as human beings could put in place," Cleaver said.

Do you envy superdelegates, wish you could be one? Or are you just as glad to leave the deciding to someone else?
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UPDATE: Obama scores first with a new superdelegate endorsement on Thursday. The Obama camp has just sent out an e-mail saying that Rep. David Wu of Oregon is supporting their candidate.

11:52 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Hillary Clinton and the "Bubba Factor"

Sen. Hillary Clinton is about as far from the stereotypical "Bubba" as you could imagine. And yet it is this very "Bubba factor" that offers her the best chance to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

For instance, look at this graphic of a "Decision Tree" that breaks down the way Democrats have voted in the primaries so far.

For instance, in counties where the high school graduation rate is less than 78 percent, Clinton has won 704 of them to Obama's 89. If the counties were in the South or Northeast, Clinton won 182-79. If they were in the Mid-West or the West, Clinton wins twice as many counties as Obama if fewer than 47% of the residents make less than $30,000 a year.

If at least 53% of residents earn more than $30,000 a year, live in a very rural area, and George Bush decisively beat John Kerry, Clinton wins these counties 48 to 13, while Obama did better in the traditional Democratic counties.

And Clinton and her campaign are very much playing up the "Bubba factor" in their campaigning. The Charlotte Observer reports that former President Bill Clinton relies on it as he campaigns in North Carolina for his wife.

Clinton, though, said he also enjoys a connection with more rural communities through his upbringing in Arkansas -- the "Bubba factor."

"I came from a poor state and a family with limited income," he told the crowd as he talked about college costs.

He said later in an interview that the smaller communities have fueled his wife's campaign, pointing out that she won an overwhelming number of counties in Pennsylvania and Texas, but they were the smaller ones.

"That's what's carrying her on," Clinton said. "This is America; the future of our country is embodied in all these communities. I went to 47 towns like this in Pennsylvania, and I've already been to 20 in North Carolina."

11:08 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Is Barack Obama the New George McGovern?

No offense to former Sen. George McGovern, but it's fair to say that no Democratic presidential candidate wants to be compared to him.

But in an article for The New Republic, writer John Judis says that the coalition of voters who support Obama is looking more and more like the one that supported McGovern in 1972.

Indeed, if you look at Obama's vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the '70s and '80s, led by college students and minorities. In Pennsylvania, Obama did best in college towns (60 to 40 percent in Penn State's Centre County) and in heavily black areas like Philadelphia.

Its ideology is very liberal. Whereas in the first primaries and caucuses, Obama benefited from being seen as middle-of-the-road or even conservative, he is now receiving his strongest support from voters who see themselves as "very liberal." In Pennsylvania, he defeated Clinton among "very liberal" voters by 55 to 45 percent, but lost "somewhat conservative" voters by 53 to 47 percent and moderates by 60 to 40 percent. In Wisconsin and Virginia, by contrast, he had done best against Clinton among voters who saw themselves as moderate or somewhat conservative.

But Jonathan Chait, who blogs at The New Republic's "The Plank" says his colleague is off-target.

Continue reading "Is Barack Obama the New George McGovern?" »

10:30 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Camp Says It Raised $10 Million Since Pa.

Using Sen. Hillary Clinton's 9-point victory in Pennsylvania to urge her supporters to pump more cash into her campaign, the Clinton camp says it is "on track" to raise $10 million since Tuesday, almost all of it off the Internet.

The New York Times reports that the money was desperately needed by the Clinton campaign.

While Mr. Obama had started April with more than $40 million, Mrs. Clinton's campaign was essentially broke, with millions of dollars in debt. Her dire financial straits had threatened to derail her campaign before her nine-point victory in Pennsylvania allowed her to make a fresh case to voters and party leaders that she would be the strongest Democratic presidential nominee.

The Clinton campaign was scrambling to milk the jump in contributions, transforming its home page to a donation page, something it had experimented with for several days last month with great success.

(There is no way to independently verify this yet.)

But there are also signs that Sen. Barack Obama commands a lot of financial support in the next two states with primaries, Indiana and North Carolina. The News Blog noted the other day that Obama had a 3-1 fundraising advantage in Indiana over Clinton.

And now the Raleigh News and Observer reports that Obama has a similar 3-1 fundraising advantage in North Carolina, receiving "$600,000 from North Carolinians in March, compared to just over $200,000 for Clinton. Obama got a big boost from the Triangle, particularly donors in Durham and Chapel Hill. He also tapped supporters of former N.C. Sen. John Edwards, who dropped his own presidential campaign in January."

8:47 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Pennsylvania's Political Grand Canyon

Pennsylvania has its own "Grand Canyon," a gorge 47 miles long and as much as 1400 feet deep. But that's nothing compared to the political gulf exposed by the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

"It tells me that the two candidates represent two different 'peoples,'" says Bill Bishop, author of The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-minded America is Tearing Us Apart.

"It also tells me that communities are tipping to one candidate or another, and that once that tipping begins, the vote becomes as much about community solidarity as it does political expression."

Bishop and geographer Tim Murphy analyzed the Pennsylvania vote county-by-county for the Daily Yonder, an online news outlet for the Center for Rural Strategies, a non-partisan group that tries to attract attention to rural issues.

Their findings indicate a deep division among Democrats that mirrors a national chasm between Democrats and Republicans.

The analysis measures the voting based on where voters live. It calculates the winning margins in rural, exurban and urban counties and indicates two very partisan and very different Democratic worlds in Pennsylvania.

Continue reading "Pennsylvania's Political Grand Canyon" »

8:05 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Ron Paul Shows He's Still Alive

It's like that old Monty Python skit; the voice of Texas Rep. Ron Paul drifts up somewhere from the pile of defeated presidential candidates and croaks "I'm not dead yet."

Paul is indeed far from dead. Sen. John McCain may be the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, but Paul is still out there fighting for every delegate and vote he can get. In Pennsylvania, he racked up an impressive 16 percent. The Boston Globe reports that Paul's "campaign bragged yesterday that 128,000 Pennsylvanians had voted for 'freedom,' and announced a rally tomorrow in Idaho, where Republicans go to the polls May 27."

While many of McCain's formal rivals are now campaigning for him, Paul intends to continue campaign right to the GOP convention in Minneapolis where he will take his message of limited government and opposition to the war in Iraq to the delegates.

(Hmmm. Any guesses on what time of the day that GOP convention planners would schedule a Paul speech?)

But Paul has always said that while he will fight hard, after the convention he'll support the winner - in this case McCain.

Perhaps more troubling for the Arizona senator were the number of votes cast for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Huckabee, who is not running any more, still got 11 percent of the vote in Pa.. Most of that vote comes from religious conservatives or others who have not made their peace with their presidential candidate. It's a sign that despite recent efforts to smooth over ruffled feathers with this group, it's not going exactly as planned.

7:50 AM ET | 04-24-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Spins Popular Vote By Adding Mich. and Fla.

A new day, a new spin.

Sen. Hillary Clinton is now telling people that the majority of the people who have voted in the Democratic presidential contest have voted for her. Sounds like she surged into the lead after Pennsylvania, doesn't it?

But it's not true. Clinton's particular vote count includes Michigan and Florida. But as we all know, those votes don't count because the states were disqualified by the Democratic National Committee for ignoring the agreed upon rules about moving their primaries up too early. Obama leads by about 500,000 votes in the states that are actually being counted in the final total.

(Not only that Clinton's total also excludes caucus states -- most of which were won by Obama -- that did not report raw popular votes. I guess those states don't have people, just caucus goers.)

For instance, communications director Howard Wolfson was making the argument on Talk of the Nation today.

ABC News might have accidentally helped this unofficial version of the popular vote account along. In today's edition of "The Note," Rick Klein wrote that "By one (rightly disputed) metric -- the popular vote, including Florida and Michigan -- Clinton has pulled ahead of Obama. But without the rogue states, Obama is still up by 500,000 -- and if you can find another objective measurement by which she's in the lead, let us know."

The Clinton camp jumped on this and started saying Clinton was leading in the popular vote according to ABC.

Jake Tapper at ABC's Political Punch blog responded by saying that the Clinton campaign had misrepresented the ABC report. The Clinton people pushed back. But then so did Tapper, who continues to say the Clinton campaign is misrepresenting what the ABC blogger said.

Wasn't Karl Rove the one who talked about not being a part of the reality-based community, and just making up your own narrative?

5:56 PM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (29) | e-mail post

 

Sen. McCain Tells N.C. GOP to Dump Anti-Obama Ad

Sen. John McCain is not happy. But it's not the Democrats who have provoked his ire. It's the North Carolina Republican party.

Earlier today, the party debuted an ad that attacks Sen. Barack Obama about his relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com called it "not blunt, not subtle, not terribly creative, and is misleading in that it suggests that Obama was present for the sermon it shows Rev. Wright delivering. ('God damn America!')."

The target of the ad was not just Obama but Democratic gubernatorial candidates Richard Moore and Beverly Perdue because they have endorsed Obama.

Here is the ad:

But McCain would have none of it.

He sent this letter to Linda Daves, chairwoman of the N.C. GOP party:

Dear Chairman Daves,

From the beginning of this election, I have been committed to running a respectful campaign based upon an honest debate about the great issues confronting America today. I expect all state parties to do so as well. The television advertisement you are planning to air degrades our civics and distracts us from the very real differences we have with the Democrats. In the strongest terms, I implore you to not run this advertisement.

This ad does not live up to the very high standards we should hold ourselves to in this campaign. We need to run a campaign that is worthy of the people we seek to serve. There is no doubt that we will draw sharp contrasts with the Democrats on fundamental issues critical to the future course of our country. But we need not engage in political tactics that only seek to divide the American people.

Once again, it is imperative that you withdraw this offensive advertisement.

John McCain

The RNC has also asked the North Carolina party to dump the ad.

McCain has consistently said that he wants to run a clean campaign, so in some ways it's not surprising. But this is a win-win-win situation for him.

He looks good for sticking to his principles. He draws a distinction between himself and Sen. Hillary Clinton, who is being accused of being too negative. And he ensures that the topic of the ad -- the Obama-Wright connection -- gets more air time.
---
UPDATE: The N.C. GOP has basically told McCain and the RNC to take a hike. The Raleigh News and Observer says that the state party will air the ad, despite the complaints from their Republican colleagues.

"We think this is a legitimate question to ask, and we don't think we're the only ones asking it," said Brent Woodcox, communications director for the state Republican Party. "We feel this is a North Carolina issue."

12:54 PM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (22) | e-mail post

 

Clinton's Victory in Pa. 9 Percentage Points, Not 10

It's a little thing, a single percentage point, but when such a big deal has been made about a double-digit victory for Sen. Hillary Clinton, it has some significance.

For most of the morning, the media (News Blog included) have been referring to Clinton's 10-point victory in Pennsylvania, citing a 55 percent to 45 percent vote total.

But that's actually not correct.

That 10-point figure is probably coming from people rounding up percentages to the nearest whole number. The actual figures, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state's Web site, are 54.6 percent for Clinton and 45.4 percent for Obama. Doing a little math, that's a 9.2-point difference. And if we round out that number, we get 9 percentage points. (That's with 99.44 percent of districts reporting, 9,212 out of 9,264.)

Again, it's a little thing, and it doesn't change the fact that Clinton won an important victory. But if these figures hold -- and there is not much room for change -- it denies Clinton the opportunity to say she won a double-digit victory in Pennsylvania, and it gives Obama the chance to say he kept her vote total below that figure.

12:00 PM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (61) | e-mail post

 

Pa. Outcome Shows Dems Break into Two Groups

After Tuesday's outcome in Pennsylvania, it looks increasingly like the Democrats face a serious problem - they have two branches within their larger party, divided by age, race and religion, each with their own favored candidate for president.

The preferred candidate of African-Americans, those under the age of 45, the well-educated, first-time voters, determined Iraq war opponents, and those not particularly religious is Sen. Barack Obama. His message of change and hope resonates with this group.

Meanwhile, voters who are above between 45 (particularly above 60), white, blue-collar, Hispanic, Catholic, who don't embrace the idea of change as enthusiastically as younger voters, and may be uncomfortable with the idea of a black president but not with a woman one, support Hillary Clinton. They see her as a stable, experienced leader who can better represent the things they care about.

If you look at the exit polls in Pennsylvania and Ohio, the divide become painfully obvious. And it's a problem for both camps, as McClatchy reports:

"Clinton still can't break Obama's hold on black and young voters. He won 92 percent of the black vote, according to exit polls, and between 56 percent and 58 percent of voters under 45. Similarly, however, Obama can't shake that a lot of whites are uncomfortable with a black as president, as exit polls showed him losing the white vote by 60-40 percent -- a consistent trend in recent primaries.

"Yet Clinton's harsh campaign may be turning Obama's flaws into open wounds that prove difficult to heal by November. And so, the party is left again in a stalemate without apparent end."

This may be why party leaders like DNC chairman Howard Dean have recently suggested that it's time for superdelegates to make up their minds and pick a candidate to support.

10:26 AM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (19) | e-mail post

 

McCain Tells Voters to Ignore "Siren Song of Protectionism"

Taking a completely different tone than his Democratic rivals, NPR's Scott Horsley reports that Sen. John McCain Tuesday stood in front of a shuttered factory in Youngstown, Ohio and told Americans that they needed to ignore the "siren song of protectionism" and embrace free trade.

Later in the day at a town hall meeting, McCain said he couldn't look local workers in the eye and say the factories are coming back, nor could he tell textile works in South Carolina that those jobs are coming back. But he said he could tell them if he is elected president, he will bring in programs that will help them be better educated and prepared for the new global economy and that will lead to better jobs.

It was an unusual place to make a pitch for free trade; as McClatchy reports Youngstown has lost "40,000 jobs since its signature steel industry collapsed in the 1970s and '80s. Its population is less than half its peak of 170,000 in the 1950s. About 25 percent of those who remain live below the poverty line."

But McCain won't change his tune on free trade because it may be an unpopular stance in the Rust-Belt region of the Mid-West.

"I've met too many people who've been displaced as a result of free trade to say, 'Aww, it's all been good for our economy, don't worry about it,' " McCain said according to McClatchy. "But I think the adjustment is not to erect barriers and protectionism. I think the answer is to understand that free trade or not, we are in an information technology revolution. ... We've got to be part of that new economy rather than trying to cling to an old economy."

9:04 AM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

New York Times' Editorial Says Clinton 'Too Negative'

In an editorial in The New York Times -- which earlier this year endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton as the best presidential choice for the Democrats -- the paper took both candidates to task for their negative tactics in the Pennsylvania primary. But the paper was particularly hard on Clinton

"It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election."

The editorial criticized Clinton for using tactics "torn from Karl Rove's playbook" to win in Pennsylvania.

"By staying on the attack and not engaging Mr. Obama on the substance of issues like terrorism, the economy and how to organize an orderly exit from Iraq, Mrs. Clinton does more than just turn off voters who don't like negative campaigning. She undercuts the rationale for her candidacy that led this page and others to support her: that she is more qualified, right now, to be president than Mr. Obama."

Exit polls in Pennsylvania showed that 68 percent of voters thought that Clinton attacked Obama unfairly. But it's going to be hard to convince Clinton to change her approach - the exit polls also show that Clinton beat Obama by 58-42 percent among voters who decided in the last few days before the vote.

8:05 AM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Okla. Governor to Endorse Obama

And the first person to pick up a new superdelegate after Sen. Hillary Clinton's 9 point victory in Pennsylvania last night is ... Sen. Barack Obama.

The Oklahoman reports that Gov. Brad Henry, who earlier this year said he would not endorse a presidential candidate until this summer's convention, will announce his support for Obama.

"Senator Obama is uniquely positioned to unite our nation and move beyond the divisiveness and partisan skirmishes that too often characterize politics as usual in Washington," said Henry, who is in the middle of his second term.

Clinton won the Democratic primary in Oklahoma over Obama, 55% to 31%.
---
Tom Note: Several people have written to note that according to the most current figures available at the Pennslyvania Secretary of State Web site, Clinton's margin of victory was not 10 points but smaller. They are correct. According to the site, the margin of victory is 9.2%. As a result, we've changed the reference above.

7:20 AM ET | 04-23-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Clinton's Hunt For Pledged Delegate Lead 'Over'

NBC's Chuck Todd just made an interesting statement on TV. Sen. Hillary Clinton's chance to win the pledged delegate category is basically over after Pennsylvania.

Here's why ...

As the News Blog noted earlier today, Clinton might pick up 10 more delegates than Sen. Barack Obama tonight. Not a lot. And it's likely that Obama will make up much of that loss in North Carolina. Indiana will likely be close as well.

And that means Clinton will need to win more than 80 percent of the remaining votes in the primaries after May 6th. And that is not going to happen.

That means the contest becomes a battle for the popular vote and superdelegates.

Here is Clinton's other problem: her main argument becomes "See, I can win the big states we need." (Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, however, said on All Things Considered that performance in the primaries is not an indicator of performance in the fall -- in fact, in the big states that Clinton has won in the primaries, Obama polls just as well against Sen. John McCain as does Clinton.)

But if Obama wins the popular vote (which still appears likely), the pledged delegates, and a greater number of states than Clinton, will the superdelegates basically ignore those factors? And if they do, how will Democratic voters who voted for Obama react?

It's on to North Carolina and Indiana.

10:08 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

NPR Calls Pennsylvania for Clinton

NPR's election desk is predicting that Sen. Hillary Clinton will win tonight's Pennsylvania primary.

Now it's all about the final margin of victory. Currently Clinton is leading Obama 53% to 47%.

8:57 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Needs to Raise Money, Fast, to Continue

For Sen. Hillary Clinton, it's all about the Benjamins now.

Even if Clinton does win tonight, there is one reality of politics that she cannot escape - she's out of money and in debt.

So you can bet that she'll use a victory in tonight's primary -- regardless of the margin -- to try and raise money, in particular on the Internet - normally Obama's territory. That's why she's been mentioning her website whenever she can.

You can look at his strategy this way: he outspent her 3-1, maybe 4-1 in the weeks before the primary. He might lose, but he forced Clinton to spend a lot of money, maybe too much. And he still he lots of money left.

8:51 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Men Go for Obama, Women Prefer Clinton in Pa.

More from the exit polls:

Men went for Obama by 53%-47% (42 percent of those who voted), while women preferred Clinton 55%-45% (58 percent of those who voted).

Younger voters went for Obama and older voters went for Clinton: 18-29 year olds (10 percent of the voters) go for Obama 58% to 42%, he also takes the 30-44 year-old sector 56%-44% (17 percent of voters); Clinton captured the 45-59 year-old bracket 51%-49% (35 percent of voters) and really went to town on those over 60 years-old, 61% to 38% (27 percent of voters.)

More than 90 percent of all African-American voters went for Obama.

8:08 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

No Quick Winner in Pennsylvania So Far

In a bit of a surprise, none of the major networks have called the election for Sen. Hillary Clinton.

NBC is calling it too close to call. CNN is calling it competitive.

Tim Russert of NBC says that this is a bit of a disappointment for Clinton, who wanted the networks to come on at eight and say "Big blow-out victory for Clinton."

8:00 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Obama Supporters Handing Out McDonald's Vouchers

Remember the News Blog's recent piece about "street money" in Philadelphia and how Obama was reluctant to pay it out to ward leaders to give to Obama poll workers? Well, it's not quite "street money" but pro-Obama ward leaders are handing out free McDonald's vouchers.

Here's an interview with one via Election Journal:

Does that come with fries?

7:44 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Exit Polls Show Few Undecided, Voters Shun Negativity

Despite all the talk about "undecideds" it seems that most voters in Pennsylvania made up their minds well before going to the polls today.

ABCNews reports that "nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago -- a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date."

Meanwhile two-thirds of voters say that Sen. Clinton attacked Sen. Obama unfairly, while one-half say that Obama went after Clinton unfairly.

And here are two statistics that might give Obama pause - "nearly six in 10 voters are women, which if it holds in final data will be a high for Pennsylvania, though about what it's been in all Democratic primaries this year. Turnout among African-Americans could be lower than it's been overall this year; it'll take updates later tonight to see whether it does or does not exceed the Pennsylvania primary record, 17 percent in 1988 and 1984."

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Pennsylvania said that 52 percent of the 4.2 million Democrats registered to vote have voted so far today. In the 2004 primary, only 27 percent of those registered went to the polls.

7:21 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Clinton Says a Victory Is a Victory, Regardless of Size

Hillary Clinton began her day greeting supporters at a polling station in Conshohocken, just outside Philadelphia. The Philly suburbs are a crucial battleground in this race.

The candidate told reporters during the stop that there should be no talk of her having to win big in Pennsylvania to declare a true victory.

"I think a win is a win -- maybe I'm old-fashioned about that," she said, before trying to shift pressure to her opponent, Barack Obama. "I think maybe the question ought to be why can't he close the deal? With his extra financial advantage, why can't he win a state like this one, if that's the way it turns out?"

As for Obama's fundraising advantage, Clinton insisted she'll have the money she needs to fight on to other states -- even if her campaign is currently in debt.

"We'll have enough," she said. "But I give him credit. He has a tremendous base of donors... and I hope everyone will go to Hillaryclinton.com and make a contribution today, so we can build on what I hope will happen in Pennsylvania and go forward."

She refused to comment on a remark her husband made to a radio station in Philadelphia. Former President Bill Clinton told WHYY on Monday that Obama's campaign "played the race card on me" after the South Carolina primary.

The former president has previously complained that he was unfairly attacked by Obama surrogates in January, after the former president compared Obama's win in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson's 1984 and 1988 victories in the state.

Hillary Clinton today refused to answer two questions about her husband's comment. "We're gonna stay focused on what voters are focused on," she said.

After chatting with reporters, Sen. Clinton made an unplanned stop. Her campaign said that while visiting the polling station, Clinton bumped into the owner of Boccella's -- a restaurant around the corner -- and learned that they make a famous neighborhood cheesesteak.

Clinton took the walk to the restaurant, greeted surprised employees and left with a take-out cheesesteak in a white paper bag.

-- David Greene

2:59 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

The Confusing Delegate Count in Pennsylvania

Most polls are predicting that Sen. Hillary Clinton will win today's Pennsylvania primary. Much of the discussion has centered on the size of her victory and the message that it will send to superdelegates.

There is a reason for the Clinton campaign to focus on the size of the popular vote victory, rather than the number of delegates awarded to each candidate. It's very likely she'll only pick up 10 to 15 delegates on Sen. Barack Obama, which he is just as likely to take back in North Carolina on May 6, while splitting in Indiana.

Which would leave the race right where it was before Pennsylvania.

The Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies used the final poll averages from Pollster.com -- 49 percent to 43 percent for Clinton -- and how they were spread around the state (we'll explain why that is important below) and determined that if these numbers hold, Clinton will win 84 delegates and Obama, 74. And even if her victory is larger, it might mean five more delegates in her column.

As Congressional Quarterly notes, "Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the party's national convention in Denver this August, and most of them -- 103 to be exact -- will be allocated according to the votes the candidates receive in each of the state's 19 congressional districts."

That's good news for Obama, because a majority of the state's congressional districts are in and around the two areas where he is expected to do very well -- Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Indeed, when CQ breaks down the delegate count district by district, Clinton picks up 53 delegates and Obama, 50. Of the remaining 84 slots, 55 pledged delegates will be distributed based on the statewide popular vote, with the state's remaining 29 seats going to superdelegates.

And doing a little math, 49 percent of 55 is 27 more delegates for Clinton, while 43 percent produces 24 for Obama. (How the other four delegates would work, we're not sure. Readers, any ideas?)

Using CQ's numbers and our math breakdown, Clinton ends up with 80 delegates and Obama with 74 -- four yet to be determined -- almost the same as CCPS.

Here is more from the Philadelphia Inquirer on how it all works.

So don't be surprised if after the primary tonight, the delegate count moves very little.

2:48 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Obama Takes Shot at ABC Debate Moderators

In his appearance last night on Jon Stewart's The Daily Show on Comedy Central, Sen. Barack Obama managed to get in a not-so-subtle dig at the moderators of last Wednesday's debate on ABC.

After some conversation at the beginning of the interview, Stewart said that the real issue in the election wasn't flag pins or the Rev. Jeremiah Wright:

"Sir, we are concerned, that ultimately at the end of the day, if you are fortunate enough to win the Democratic nomination, if you are fortunate enough to become president of the United States, will you pull a bait and switch, sir, and enslave the white race? Is that your plan? And if it is your plan, be honest! Tell us now!"

Obama laughed and said, "That is not our plan, Jon. But I think your paranoia might make you suitable as a debate moderator."

Ouch. Take that, George and Charlie!

Here is Part One of the Obama appearance:

And here is Part Two:

12:48 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

S.C. Pastor Asks If Osama, Obama Are 'Brothers'

Sen. Barack Obama has been raked over the coals for his relationship with his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Critics said it was impossible for Obama to attend Trinity Church in Chicago for 20 years and not know about some of the more controversial statements that Wright made. They said Obama knew that Wright was controversial enough that he called his pastor and uninvited him to the launch of Obama's presidential campaign.

So why do some of these critics also accuse Obama of being a Muslim, even as they whack him for attending the same Christian church for 20 years?

For instance, WYFF in Greenville, S.C., reports that Roger Byrd, the pastor at a small church in Jonesville, put up a message outside his church that reads, "Obama, Osama. Hmm. Are they brothers?" Byrd swears the message wasn't meant to be racial or political, just to get people thinking.

"It's simply to cause people to realize and to see what possibly could happen if we were to get someone in there that does not believe in Jesus Christ," he said.

When asked if he believes that Barack Obama is Muslim, Byrd said, "I don't know. See it asks a question: Are they brothers? In other words, is he Muslim? I don't know. He says he's not. I hope he's not. But I don't know. And it's just something to try to stir people's minds. It was never intended to hurt feelings or to offend anybody."

Byrd says he's leaving the sign up because he doesn't want to look like he backed down. He says he asked his congregation Sunday and they said it should stay.

12:28 PM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (25) | e-mail post

 

Early Turnout in Philadelphia Could Hint at Outcome

It all seems to come down to the City of Brotherly Love. Sen. Barack Obama and his campaign officials have already said they don't expect to win today's primary. But the big question is: Can they avoid a blowout and make it a contest?

For several weeks now, reporters and pundits have been talking about how the turnout in Philadelphia will shape the outcome in today's Pennsylvania primary. As the News Blog reported yesterday, Democratic registration in Philadelphia and the five counties surrounding the city has been vigorous and many of these new voters are seen as Obama supporters.

If turnout in Philadelphia is heavy, especially early in the day, Politico.com says that's good news for Obama and troubling news for Clinton. That's because African-Americans tend to go to the polls later in the day in the city. So if there is already a big turnout, before the group expected to vote heavily for Obama even goes to the polls, it means those new voters are coming out in big numbers.

If turnout in Philadelphia is not heavy, that means that Clinton may get her much-needed double-digit victory.
---
UPDATE: The Philadelphia Inquirer features a constantly updated blog written by various reporters spread across the city and suburbs. Worth reading for a sense of what's happening in the city.

Meanwhile, Election Journal is using Twitter feeds and Flickr to keep folks updated.

9:23 AM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Obama Out-Fundraises Clinton 3-1 in Indiana in March

The last poll in Indiana showed Sen. Barack Obama leading by 5 points. But if the race were being decided on fundraising in the Hoosier State, it would be a runaway victory for the Illinois senator.

The Indianapolis Star reports that "Obama raised nearly three times as much money from Indiana last month as Hillary Rodham Clinton did, according to their most recent disclosure reports filed with the Federal Election Commission."

In March, Obama raised $218,865 to Clinton's $79,622, despite the fact that Clinton has the backing of most of the Democratic establishment in the state. Overall, Obama has raised $883,375 in Indiana since the race began, compared with $664,254 raised by Clinton.

"Only individuals giving more than $200 have to be identified by name, occupation and address on the disclosure reports. From those contributors, GOP candidates have raised a combined $1.8 million, while Democratic candidates raised a combined $1.4 million from the GOP-leaning state ... Clinton has moderately out-raised Obama among people giving $2,000 or more, while Obama has raised twice as much as Clinton among people giving $200 or less."

9:00 AM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Both Candidates Looking for Victories in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania voters head to the polls today in the first Democratic primary voting in six weeks. Pennsylvania is by far the most delegate-rich state remaining on the primary calendar.

With weeks of no voting, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama had a chance to dig in in Pennsylvania. They campaigned in every corner of the state and spent millions of dollars on campaign ads.

Obama is hoping to emerge from today's primary as the clear front-runner in the Democratic race. Clinton is hoping a solid performance in Pennsylvania will send a message to superdelegates that she can win the big states that will be pivotal in November's general election.

In Pennsylvania, only Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary. But voters were able to register up until last month, and the state party reported more than 300,000 new names ahead of today's primary.

-- David Greene

5:12 AM ET | 04-22-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Clinton and Obama Sprint Across Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama sprinted across Pennsylvania today, looking for votes a day before an important primary here. Tomorrow will be the first time Democrats vote in a primary contest in six weeks.

Clinton was hitting the major television markets on this last day of campaigning. She appeared with former President Bill Clinton in a plaza in downtown Pittsburgh. The senator pointed to comments from her opponent, Barack Obama, about political frustrations during the Clinton presidency.

"You know sometimes in this campaign people criticize the 1990s, and that's fair,' said Clinton. "You can say whatever you want in a campaign. But I always wonder, what is it they didn't like, the peace or the prosperity? How do we get back to those days?"

The Clinton campaign meanwhile released a last minute ad in Pennsylvania. It shows images of Osama bin Laden, and Hurricane Katrina, and asks "Who do you think has what it takes" to be president.

-- David Greene

9:03 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Moyers on Wright, Rendell on Farrakhan

This coming Friday, Rev. Jeremiah Wright will be making his first national TV appearance since controversy about his time as pastor of Sen. Barack Obama's church first erupted. PBS announced today that Wright will appear on "Bill Moyers Journal" this coming Friday night.

Wright became a subject of the presidential campaign when videos snippets taken from longer sermons showed he had said several inflammatory things over the years.

Wright is also expected to be the keynote speaker this Friday at the Detroit branch of the NAACP's 53rd Annual Fight for Freedom Fund dinner. The dinner draws about 10,000 people.

Meanwhile another controversial figure, Louis Farrakhan, head of the Nation if Islam, has popped up again. But this time it's not for a connection to Obama, but to Penn. Gov. Ed Rendell, one of Hillary Clinton's most enthusiastic supporters. A video making the rounds on political blogs shows Rendell giving praise to both Farrakhan and the Nation of Islam.

Back in 1997, when he was mayor of Philadelphia, Rendell -- who is Jewish -- was the principal organizer of the ""A Solution Too Heal The Racial Divide" rally at which Farrakhan was the keynote speaker.

"Thank you for what you stand for and the good it does for so many people in Philadelphia," Rendell said about the Nation of Islam in his speech at the conference. "This is a faith that doesn't just talk about family values, it lives family values."

At the time, the Jewish News Weekly reported that the Jewish community was "boiling" over Rendell's invitation to Farrakhan.

Earlier this year, Sen. Hillary Clinton sharply criticized Obama because of Wright's connections to Farrakhan.

Here is the video of Rendell's speech:

UPDATE: Andew Sullivan of theAtlantic.com has this comment on the Rendell-Farrakhan video:

"One thought that this video inevitably raises: what if Obama had ever said such a thing or been to such an event? Given what we know now about this campaign, would it not be the conventional wisdom that it would be the end of his candidacy? And yet, Rendell is still a pillar of the Democratic party, central to the Clintons' Pennsylvania strategy, and praised as a classic old-style white ethnic pol. I don't imagine his credibility or reputation will be affected one iota by this. Even if it were Rendell running for president this year, I don't think this video would have Hannity and O'Reilly and Steyn and Coulter in a lather.

"What do we learn from this? That Obama has to be even more distanced from these things because he's black. That's all. Race matters. The double standard endures. And the MSM perpetuates it. As do the Clintons."

5:50 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (27) | e-mail post

 

North Carolina Democratic Debate Cancelled

CBS and the North Carolina Democratic Party have announced that Sunday night's debate between Clinton and Obama is canceled. Obama refused to commit to the date.

Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com reports that the Obama camp wanted to stay away from the debate because "they did not want to give Hillary Clinton any excuse to stay in the race beyond Tuesday, assuming she doesn't fare that well."

4:47 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Leads in Penn, But Obama Gains Nationally

Many years ago, then-Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker was asked what he thought about opinion polls. "Polls are for dogs," he replied.

Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama might be thinking the same thing today. Polls have blossomed like flowers -- or weeds, depending on your point of view -- and everybody seems to have one.

For instance, there are several polls that are taking the temperature of Pennsylvanian voters before tomorrow's primary.

Quinnipiac, who has been polling in the state for many years, finds Clinton with a seven-point lead - basically unchanged over the past three weeks.

"Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama's campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

But wait, there's more ...

Suffolk University has Clinton up by ten, 52% to 42%. Mason Dixon has Clinton by five, 48% to 43%. Zogby has it 48% to 42% for Clinton. SurveyUSA had Clinton by six, 50% to 44%. CNN's "poll of polls" had Clinton up by seven 50% to 43%. Robo-pollsters Strategic Vision has Clinton by seven 48% to 41%, and PPP has Obama by three, 49% to 46%.

Take a deep breath ...

Nationally, it's a completely different story.

The Gallup Daily Tracking poll has Obama ahead among Democrats nationally 49% to 42%, (Last Friday, Clinton had pulled ahead by one point after the Wednesday night debate, but Obama recovered quickly.) The USA Today-Gallup poll (which is not the same as a tracking poll) has Obama ahead by 10 points, 50% to 40%. And in a real stunner, Newsweek's poll released on Friday had Obama ahead nationally by 19 points, 54% to 35%.

And then there is Obama and Clinton versus McCain ...

3:46 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Obama, Clinton Attack Each Other in "Kitchen War" Ads

Maybe future historians will refer to the 2008 Democratic nomination race as the "Kitchen War."

Back in February, an unnamed Hillary Clinton aide told reporters that her campaign was going to engage in a "kitchen sink" strategy against Barack Obama -- as in, they were going to throw everything at him but. Obama himself recently picked up the expression, talking about how he was the target of Clinton's "kitchen sink" approach... just another example, in his mind, of the "old politics" he says he wants to get away from.

Obama's ads have echoed this. They don't use the term "kitchen sink" -- a little too inside-baseball, for a TV ad -- but the point is the same:

Obama's ad is here.

The ad ends, "Eleventh hour smears, paid for by lobbyists' money. Isn't that exactly what we need to change?"

Ouch. For Clinton supporters, that sounds annoyingly sanctimonious... and maybe a little bit like whining.

And it plays perfectly into Clinton's theme that Obama just isn't tough enough for the job. And thus, the "kitchen" theme again -- this time in a Clinton counter-attack ad:

"Harry Truman said it best. 'If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.' Who do you think has what it takes?'"

If you watch TV in Pennsylvania tonight, you're going to see this ad.

So here's a question: Just how fast can Obama produce a response? If money can buy speed, then watch this space....

-- Martin Kaste
------
UPDATE: Martin called it ... here's the Obama reponse:

3:00 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

McCain Camp Gets Grumpy with Media

Hell hath no fury like Sen. John McCain's campaign annoyed at the press.

On Sunday, the Washington Post ran an article about McCain's legendary temper tantrums. McCain has had shouting matches with several of his own Republican colleagues over the years, and has often mentioned these outbursts himself. The question posed by the Post was do these outbursts affect his ability to be president?

The McCain camp was not pleased. The Los Angeles Times "Top of the Ticket" blog reports that former McCain adviser Mark Salter, who was one of the sources used by Post reporter Michael Leahy in the story, wrote to Ramesh Ponnuru, one of the writers at The Corner blog on NationalReview.com, to say he strongly disagreed with the way that Leahy wrote the story.

"The piece is 99% fiction. [Reporter Michael] Leahy is a nice guy, but the story was one of the more dishonest I've read in a while. I talked to him for over two hours. Some of the instances, like the Bob Smith one, he never even raised with me so I could respond. For others, he declined to print my rebuttal.

"He used my quotes in ways that made them seem as if I were confirming his thesis when I insisted that McCain's temper is no greater than the average person's, and that I personally know 20 or 25 Senators with much worse tempers."

First Read reports that this is the McCain campaign's plan to deal with "a much more hostile press than they ever imagined."

"The question is whether the campaign will grow thicker skin or whether the relationship between McCain and the media will simply deteriorate. One other thing: The pushback on the story was bizarre for another reason. It may have been a story that was somewhat ignored in the runup to Pennsylvania and, frankly, the premise wasn't all that new. In fact, McCain has become very adept at answering this question. But the Salter response was so brutal, it almost dares folks to find stories on McCain's temper -- something we're guessing most of the press corps wasn't all that interested in pursuing."

Daring the media to find stories is a bad idea. (Just ask former Democratic Sen. Gary Hart.)

2:06 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (17) | e-mail post

 

"Obama Minute" Looks to Raise a Million in a Minute

Scott Cohen swears he's never donated to a political campaign in his life. But watching this year's Democratic primary, "Barack really woke the citizen in me," he says.

So about nine days ago, Cohen -- a filmmaker and photographer in New York -- and a group of friend decided they wanted to try and raise a million dollars in a minute for Obama. So they started networking their address book and told their friends to work their address books and they told everyone to go to the Obama campaign site at 1 p.m. on April 21st (today) and make a donation.

"First we checked with the Obama site to make sure their servers could handle it, and they said they could," Cohen told the News Blog.

It's an idea that Ron Paul fans will be familiar with. Paul's loyal followers organized several similar events -- normally over a period of 24 hours -- that raised many millions for the Texas Republican presidential candidate. (Remember, Paul still hasn't withdrawn from the campaign yet.)

When we talked to Cohen at around 12:45, 3000 people had already donated about $170,000. Cohen said he thought that some people would come early and after after the minute. (Here is there money "thermometer.")

While it is a bit of a stunt, it's also an enormously important selling point for the Obama campaign with superdelegates - the ability to raise very large sums of money very quickly.

We'll have an update later on how they do.

12:56 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

It's All About the Numbers in Pennsylvania

No matter how many ways you look at it, it still comes down to what the superdelegates will decide to do. That's because for all the stories about "bitter" small town residents of Pennsylvania, or the atmospherics of knocking back beers with locals, or connections to 60s radicals, none of it changes the actual math. And the math is brutal for Sen. Hillary Clinton.

And as Bloomberg News points out, the math says it is almost impossible for Sen. Clinton to catch Sen. Obama in either pledged delegates or popular vote.

"After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him.

"Clinton needs blowout numbers,'' says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with either campaign. "The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.'"

Clinton's best hope to sway superdelegates is a possible win in the popular vote. But even that is going to be difficult, as Bloomberg points out "... Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon -- a prospect that's not at all certain."

One reason that prospect is uncertain is that Obama has a enormous money advantage over Clinton in the primaries.

The New York Times reports that Clinton really needs a double-digit victory to make a big dent in Obama's popular vote total. But if he only gets a mid-single digit win, it "might not be impressive enough to claim fresh momentum, but it would likely be sufficient for her to continue limping around the primary track."

NPR's Nancy Cook reports that if the margin of victory is only in the low- to middle- single digits, Obama could claim a "moral victory, and that would leave the situation "muddled as ever."

And it all still leads back to the superdelegates.

Both camps picked up superdelegates over the weekend. The Obama camp is the first one out of the chute this morning: Ohio superdelegate and DNC member Enid Goubeaux is now on record for Obama.

12:27 PM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

McCain Hails Civil Rights Marchers in Selma

Sen. John McCain started his "Time for Action Tour" today in Selma, Alabama, where he praised Democratic Rep. John Lewis, one of the leaders of the 1965 Selma to Montgomery march, and his fellow marchers for their courage.

"That evening, millions of Americans watched in stunned silence as ABC News broadcast the clash of might against right. They watched brave John Lewis fall. They watched the marchers -- peaceful, purposeful, loving, kneeling in humble resistance -- scattered and overrun by the troopers, who struck them with clubs and whips, chased them as they fled, trampled them beneath their horses' hooves. They watched old men and women fall. They saw dignified people claiming only their constitutional rights; affirming the promise of the Declaration of Independence without anger, malice or the least threat of violence, whipped and clubbed for their patriotism. They watched, and were ashamed of their country. And they knew that the people who had tried to cross the Edmund Pettus Bridge weren't a mob; they weren't a threat; they weren't revolutionaries. They were people who believed in America; in the promise of America. And they believed in a better America. They were patriots; the best kind of patriots" ...

"When I care about something," John Lewis wrote, "I'm prepared to take the long, hard road." I've seen courage in action on many occasions in my life, but none any greater or used for any better purpose than the courage shown by John Lewis and the good people who marched for justice with him. All his life, John Lewis has believed in Dr. King's concept of the "beloved community;" a country "not hateful, not violent, not uncaring . . . not separated, not polarized, not adversarial."

The Associated Press reports that the speech in Selma is the start of "a weeklong tour of communities he said are suffering from poverty and inattention from presidential candidates." (Although Selma itself hasn't lacked for attention - last year Senators Clinton and Obama, along with former President Bill Clinton all visited to mark the anniversary of the march.) After Alabama, McCain goes to Youngstown, Ohio, eastern Kentucky and New Orleans' Ninth Ward, an area devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

10:13 AM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Obama: "Any One of the 3 of Us Better Than Bush"

It's spinning season in Pennsylvania.

The Allentown Morning Call reports that Sunday Sen. Barack Obama told a "rowdy" crowd in central Pennsylvania, "You have a real choice in this election. Either Democrat would be better than John McCain. And all three of us would be better than George Bush. But you have to ask yourself who has the chance to really change things in a fundamental way.''

Sen. Hillary Clinton jumped on this remark: 'We need a nominee who will take on John McCain, not cheer on John McCain."

Clinton campaign organizers said Obama's remarks undercut Democratic efforts to tie McCain to Bush.

But Obama is not actually the first person to voice this sentiment. As the News Blog reported last week, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, speaking at a meeting of the city's business leaders, noted one good thing about next year was "at least there will be an adult in the White House" -both a whack at Bush and a compliment to all three remaining presidential candidates.
---
UPDATE: Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com likes what Obama had to say.

"I like when politicians show nuance. From a guy who regularly says that President John McCain would be tantamount to a third President George W. Bush, this is one of those civil concessions that make the patriot in me all proud."

8:50 AM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (17) | e-mail post

 

In Pennsylvania, Shift to Democrats a "Tidalwave"

In the suburbs of Philadelphia, the switch from Republican to Democrat is happening almost everywhere. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Democrats now outnumber Republicans in two of the four counties that comprise suburban Philadelphia and Democrats and Independents together are now a larger group in the other two other counties that have long been bastions of Republican support.

And it appears that much of this Democratic excitement is being driven by Sen. Barack Obama.

John J. Kennedy, associate professor of political science at West Chester University, noted that each of the 15 communities with a new Democratic registration edge voted for Democrat John Kerry over President Bush in 2004.

"People change their voting patterns first," he said. "It may take years - decades - before they change their registration, and then usually there is some watershed event to make it happen."

The Obama-Clinton race appears to be just such an event - not only in the region, but statewide. Pennsylvania now has 8.3 million voters, of whom 4.2 million are Democrats and 3.2 million are Republicans. The Democrats have gained 326,756 voters since a year ago, and the Republicans have lost 73,009.

The Inquirer note that there is a "tidal wave of people in the five-county Philadelphia region - former Republicans, former independents, former nonvoters - who registered as Democrats to vote in Tuesday's primary. And the majority of these newly registered voters appear to support Sen. Barack Obama, according to a recent poll."

Most experts believe that the Democratic primary on Tuesday will be won or lost in the Philadelphia area. How much this new "tidal wave" of Democratic voters will affect the outcome of the primary is an unknown, but it could make the race a much closer contest that polls have shown - which would be seen by many as a "win" for Obama.

8:00 AM ET | 04-21-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

For Clinton, Penn. Now About Lowering Expectations

A few weeks ago, when Sen. Hillary Clinton was a head by 16 -20 percent, Pennsylvania looked like a walk in the park. It seemed likely she would get that sorely needed double-digit victory over Sen. Barack Obama that she needed to catch up in the popular vote (she has almost no chance of catching him when it comes to pledged delegates) and make a strong argument to superdelegates that she was the smart choice for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

That was then ... this is now. Now it all depends on how you define "significant" -- because that needed double-digit victory has now become mid-single digits.

On CBS's "Face the Nation," Gov. Ed Rendell said Clinton would win the state by as many as seven percentage points, even in the face of `"obscene'" campaign spending by Obama in the finally days leading up to primary

"We've been outspent three-and-a-half to one," Rendell, a Clinton supporter said. "A win by middle-digits -- four, five, six, seven -- would be very significant."

But yesterday, speaking to Clinton supporters in York, Rendell's message was a bit different.

"Not to put any pressure on you folks, but this is it, this is it," said Rendell. "We're gonna we win, no doubt about it, but we gotta win big. If we win big, we're going to wind up with more votes than Barack Obama. It's gonna be a very big decision for the superdelegates."

Others believe that Rendell's call for a big victory is right on the money. For instance, the Wall Street Journal said Frioday that "Anything less than a double-digit victory could solidify the perception that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the inevitable Democratic nominee, sparking a flow of superdelegates to his side."

"The bigger the number, the better," says Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf. "She needs to do exceptionally well in Pennsylvania. If not, the pressure for her to leave will be greater."

But the official word from the Clinton campaign is that a win is a win is a win. The Obama camp, meanwhile, says that anything less than double-digits is a victory for him.

Only time will tell.

(TOM NOTE: The is why I love our readers. Noah Kunin pointsout below that it was film director Ron Reiner, not Ed Rendell that made the "this is it" folks remark. The remarks was reported in the media as being from Rendell.

Interestingly, this is a double drop for me. I saw the remark, which was reportedly made by Rendell, in other media but wanted to see if I could find a Pennsylvania paper that carried it. I did find it in the York paper - but I didn't read closely enough. Because sure enough the paper quotes Reiner as making the remark. Good get, Noah.)

4:48 PM ET | 04-20-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Pennsylvania Vote Depends on Several Factors

The closer we get to the actual Pennsylvania primary, the more it seems that no one can really predict how the actual voting will go.

For instance, the Boston Globe reports that "later-deciders" could really help Sen. Hillary Clinton.

"If the pattern of previous primaries and caucuses holds, the biggest procrastinators - those who make up their minds on Tuesday - will probably break for Senator Hillary Clinton. If they side with her again in Pennsylvania, it may help Clinton hold off Senator Barack Obama with a big-enough victory to save her candidacy, again."

But Obama has a couple of important factors that could break his way.

Young voters in Pennsylvania could go big for Obama and neutralize the "late-decider." (Witness the spontaneous Obama "parade" through Philadelphia of about 5000 mostly younger Obama supporters after his speech to 35,000 people Friday night.) But as Reuters asks, will they turn out to vote?

"The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, or CIRCLE, which has tracked youth voting since the U.S. voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972, says this year has seen the highest national registration rate in history among those under 30 ...

"[But] In every presidential election since 1972, turnout by citizens under 30 in Pennsylvania was slightly below the national average for young voters and lagged behind that of older voters. In 2004, 47 percent of young Pennsylvanians, and 68 percent of those over 30, went to the polls, according to CIRCLE."

The most important factor for Obama, however, could be women. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that "Allegiances are shifting, and affiliations based on gender and race are weakening ...," mostly in favor or Obama.

"In the latest Quinnipiac University poll, released Tuesday, Clinton held steady with Pennsylvania women with 54 percent of the vote, compared with 40 percent for Obama. In a poll two months ago, however, Obama had only 34 percent of the women's vote in Pennsylvania."

"It's not that she's losing supporters, but he's picking up strength, especially among white women," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
----
UPDATE: One indication of how these difference groups can affect polling results, two new polls how how wide the spread can be depending upon who the pollsters reach.

Earlier today we reported that a Mason-Dixon poll had Clinton ahead by 5%. A new Zogby Daily Tracking Pennsylvania poll shows Clinton ahead by only three points. It has a +/- of 4.1 percent. But a poll by the GOP polling firm Strategic Vision shows Clinton ahead by nine points.

10:40 AM ET | 04-20-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

Polls Show Clinton Lead in Pennsylvania

A new poll by McClatchy Newspapers, MSNBC and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette shows Sen. Hillary Clinton maintaining her middle-single digit lead in Pennsylvania.

And it's the support of white, working-class voters --"bowlers, gun owners and hunters in Pennsylvania, a blue-collar trifecta" --that continues to give her that five-point lead, 48% to 43%. Only beer drinkers don't prefer Clinton - she splits that vote with Obama.

Obama leads among blacks, voters younger than 35, Protestants, and those looking for change or honesty. He leads in the Philadelphia area.

Only seven percent of voters say that Wednesday night's debate influenced their views of the candidate.

The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon, surveyed 625 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It was conducted by telephone April 17-18. It has a +/- of four percent and did not include cell phone users.

Ron Elving, NPR's Washington editor, talking about the Pennsylvania primary on Weekend Edition Sunday, said if Clinton does win, the argument will become was it enough "Is it the momentum builder, is it the factor she needed to turn it around," said Elving.
---
(TOM NOTE: I've noticed that lately that there has been a few quite long posts in our comment section. I just want to remind folks that posts need to be reasonable in length. Really long posts probably won't be published. The primary reason is not content - it's how it appears in the blog's comment section. Really long comments can appear even long when published. So if you have a lot to say, say it in chunks - part one, part two, etc. It will look better, read better and more people will pay attention.)

8:44 AM ET | 04-20-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

William Ayers Writes About The Past, Present on Blog

William Ayers, former radical, now English professor and 24x7 media bête noir, has a blog. (Who doesn't these days.) Most of the blog is about his writing, his talks, his biography and history. He hasn't blogged about how he was thrown into the middle of the Democratic debate by ABC moderator George Stephanopoulos at the suggestion of Fox News talking head Sean Hannity the other day. But he did blog recently about the furor over his tenuous connection to Sen. Barack Obama.

Here some of that recent entry entitled "Episodic Notoriety - Fact and Fiction":

"Day in and day out I go about my business, I hang out with my kids and my grandchildren, take care of the elders, I go to work, I teach and I write, I organize and I participate in the never-ending effort to build a powerful movement for peace and social justice; now and then (and unpredictably) I appear in the newspapers or on TV with a reference to my book Fugitive Days, a memoir of the revolutionary action and militant resistance to the Viet Nam War -- the years of miracle and wonder -- and some fantastic assertions about what I did, what I said, and what I believe. The other night, for example, I heard Sean Hannity tell Senator John McCain that I was an unrepentant terrorist who had written an article on September 11, 2001 extolling bombings against the U.S., and even advocating more terrorist bombs. Senator McCain couldn't believe it, and neither could I.'

Continue reading "William Ayers Writes About The Past, Present on Blog" »

7:30 PM ET | 04-19-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post

 

Indiana Poll: Obama Ahead by 5, But It's McCain's State

A new poll from the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne shows that Sen. Barack Obama has a five-point lead on Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Indiana Democratic primary. But the Indianapolis Star reports that when it comes to the fall election, Indiana remains safely Republican, with GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain holding solid leads over both Democrats.

The polls showed Obama leading Clinton 50 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent undecided. But the polls +/- of 4.5 % means it's still a close race and could break either way. Meanwhile, McCain continues to do well in the state.

No Democratic presidential nominee has carried Indiana since Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1964, and the poll showed that either Obama or Clinton would have an uphill battle against the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain.

McCain led Obama 51 percent to 44 percent and led Clinton 53 percent to 42 percent, with 5 percent undecided in each case.

The poll also shows that if Clinton picked Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana as her running mate, it wouldn't help much.

"Only 4 percent of Hoosiers would switch from McCain to Clinton if Bayh were chosen as her running mate, and some of this gain would be lost by the 2 percent of Clinton supporters who would switch to McCain," the Downs Center said in its analysis of the results.

6:42 AM ET | 04-19-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Sen. Orrin Hatch Pens a Song for John McCain

Barack Obama had the "Obama Girl" to sing his praises.

Now John McCain has his "Orrin Boy." That's Orrin Hatch, the Utah Republican who writes song lyrics between U.S. Senate sessions and even has a Platinum Record to his credit.

Senator Hatch has released "Together Forever," a country-pop ditty that celebrates John McCain.

"There's a time in history for a hero's destiny," the song shouts out, in a reference to candidate McCain's P.O.W. past during the Viet Nam war. There's also some contemporary political advice.

"Hey John," a female lead singer calls, in case Senator McCain isn't listening. "They're gonna hit you hard with everything they got ...They'll be calling you everything you're not."

"But sure as heaven you're bound to win," the lyrics croon reassuringly. "Start celebrating. Now let's begin. Together. Forever."

This is music you can dance AND vote to, if you're inclined toward John McCain.

In a written statement, Senator Hatch said he " ... thought John would get a big kick out of a patriotic song written about his heroism and the sacrifices he's made for our country ... I think most people will like it."

Does the McCain campaign like the song? A campaign spokesman told the Salt Lake Tribune, "We'll see Barack Obama's Bruce Springsteen endorsement and raise them an Orrin Hatch."

A spokesman for the Democratic National Committee riffed on the song's title in the DNC's response, telling the Tribune, "Once the voters get to see the real John McCain, we're sure Senator Hatch will get his wish, and he and Senator McCain can spend 'Forever Together' in the U.S. Senate."

Hatch, by the way, is bipartisan in his song-writing. He once wrote an ode to his Democratic Senate colleague and friend, Edward Kennedy, and Kennedy's wife Vicki, called "Souls Along the Way."

-- Howard Berkes

4:05 PM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

McCain Release Tax Info, Wife Doesn't

Republican presidential hopeful John McCain released his tax returns Friday, showing that he earned about $420,00 last year.

In addition to his Senate salary last year, McCain earned more than $176,000 in royalties from his five books. That's more than double his 2006 book income, but well below the book royalties of his Democratic rival Barack Obama. The 71-year-old McCain also collected about $23,000 in Social Security, and he received a Navy pension of about $58,000, which is tax free.

McCain paid more than $84,000 in federal taxes last year, including more than $5,000 from the alternative minimum tax, which he wants to repeal.

But his wife, a wealthy beer heiress, is keeping her finances private.

John and Cindy McCain have always kept their finances separate. The campaign says Cindy McCain won't be releasing her tax returns, in order to protect her children's privacy. She inherited a stake in a beer distributor her father started, thought to be worth as much as l00-million dollars.

The McCains claimed two of their children as dependents last year. He's proposed a doubling of the children's tax exemption.

-- Scott Horsley

1:59 PM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Obama Gets Backing of Nunn, Boren and Reich

In what looks more and more to be a carefully choreographed announcement of endorsements, Sen. Barack Obama picked up the support of two former Democratic Senators and a former member of President Bill Clinton's cabinet.

"Former Senators Sam Nunn and David L. Boren endorsed Barack Obama for president, citing his judgment and vision to be Commander and Chief and his ability to strengthen our national security," the Obama campaign announced in an e-mailed release.

"Based on my conversations with Senator Obama, reading his book and his speeches and seeing the kind of campaign he has run, I believe that he is our best choice to lead our nation," said Nunn, who is known for his expertise in national security and military matters.

Meanwhile, Robert Reich, longtime friend of Bill Clinton (they were Rhodes Scholars together) and former Labor Secretary in Clinton's administration, announced on his blog today that he is supporting Obama. (First recorded endorsement by blog?)

"Although Hillary Clinton has offered solid and sensible policy proposals, Obama's strike me as even more so. His plans for reforming Social Security and health care have a better chance of succeeding. His approaches to the housing crisis and the failures of our financial markets are sounder than hers. His ideas for improving our public schools and confronting the problems of poverty and inequality are more coherent and compelling. He has put forward the more enlightened foreign policy and the more thoughtful plan for controlling global warming."

1:41 PM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Dean Wants Superdelegates to Decide "Now."

Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean thinks that superdelegates have had enough time to consider the options, and wants they to start making up their minds ... now.

"We've got to know who our nominee is," Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said on CNN. "I need them to say who they're for, starting now."

Dean says about 65 percent of the superdelegates have announced their support for a particular candidate, and he wants the remaining 35 percent to speed it up. But he doesn't seem to have much leverage to get these last 300 or so delegates to make a move.

As USAToday reports, many superdelegates don't seem to be in any hurry at all to decide which candidate to back.

"Until America has (its) say, I'm going to wait to have mine," Debra Kozikowski, vice chairwoman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, said. "I don't want voters ... to feel as though superdelegates are sweeping down and making the decision for them."

1:15 PM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Will Clinton Get "Colbert Bump" Out of Brief Appearance?

As Scott Kraus of the Allentown (PA) Morning Call says, if you blinked, you missed it. Last night Sen. Hillary Clinton made a brief live appearance on the set of the popular political satire show, The Colbert Report.

Clinton walked on to the opening of the show, taped before a live audience at the University of Pennsylvania, pretending to repair a technical problem and fix host Stephen Colbert's makeup before rushing off the set.

''You are so prepared for any situation,'' said a mock-stunned Colbert.

The New York senator replied: ''Call me anytime.''

''Really?'' Colbert asked.

''Sure,'' Clinton replied. Then she added: ''Call me at 3 a.m.,'' before rushing off to attend a block party in Northeast Philadelphia."

And she's wasn't the only one. Colbert also managed to get former presidential contender John Edwards and Clinton's rival Sen. Barack Obama (via satellite) on the same show.

But will any of them, Clinton in particular, get the coveted Colbert bump? (Recently the News Blog carried a story about a UCSD professor who did a little research and swears it exists - after a Democrat goes on the Comedy Central show, their approval ratings soar and they raise a lot more money.)

Maybe.

''It's a way to show you are a regular person, that you are not cold, that you are older but you are a little hip,'' said Chris Harper, associate professor of journalism at Temple University.

But Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania said it probably won't help much because most of the show's college-educated crowd have already made up their minds.

11:47 AM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Michelle Obama Attacks "Elitist" Label

In a stop at an Indiana middle school yesterday, Michelle Obama, wife of Democratic presidential leader Sen. Barack Obama, defended her husband against charges that he is "elitist.'

"There was no silver spoon in his mouth," she said. "His mother was an 18-year-old white woman raising a black kid in the 1960s."

The Indianapolis Star reports that Obama added "her husband learned that 'sometimes life deals you a short hand; sometimes you live on food stamps.' "

Describing herself as the "product of a working-class community," Obama talked about how the rising cost of college education and the low pay of many jobs make it difficult for middle-class Americans to make a living and put their children through college.

"We are making certain careers financially obsolete," Obama said before breaking into a bit of sarcasm. "Barack and I know this all too well with our elite selves."

The audience responded with a loud standing ovation.

Obama said she wants people to know that she is a "proud product" of the Chicago public school system.

"When they look at me and see perhaps the next first lady of the United States," she said, "I want to be a constant reminder of what an investment in public education can look like."

11:09 AM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

ABC Shrugs Off Furor Over Debate Performance

In a surprise to no one, ABC News shrugged off the media attention it received over its handling of the debate between the two Democratic candidates on Wednesday night. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that "the morning after Wednesday night's presidential campaign debate in Philadelphia, the names on the nation's lips were . . . Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos."

"Gibson, the avuncular ABC news anchor, and Stephanopoulos, the network's mop-top political analyst, found themselves at the center of a cloudburst of criticism for their interrogation of Democratic presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton."

But ABC was unapologetic.

"The questions were tough and fair and appropriate and relevant," Stephanopoulos told the Associated Press. "We wanted to focus at first on the issues that were not focused on during the last debates."

The audience of 10.7 million was the largest for a presidential debate so far in this campaign, Jeffrey Schneider, senior vice president for ABC News noted. With an audience that big, "we're not surprised that there is a huge reaction," he said. "It's yet another indication of how passionately engaged the American people are with this race."

He said ABC did not regard the debate as a conflict of interest for Stephanopoulos, who had been a press aide to President Bill Clinton. "He's been here 11 1/2 years, far longer than the time he spent in the White House," Schneider said.

While most journalism experts felt that the conflict of interest question was not a concern, many felt it did take ABC too long to get to the important questions.

"I was disappointed with the first 40 minutes of it," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College. "They should have started asking questions pertaining to policy issues and leadership and not focused so much on personal questions. . . . There was nothing new."

10:51 AM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post

 

AP FactCheck: Obama's Connections to Ayers Tenuous

William Ayers probably never got this much attention even when he was a member of the radical Weather Underground.

Ayers is, of course, today's 24x7 instant media story because of his 'relationship' with Sen. Barack Obama. Based on the exchange about Ayers during Wednesday night's debate in Philadelphia, you might have thought that Obama and Ayers were plotting the overthrow of the U.S. government together 40 years ago - even if Obama was only eight at the time.

But an Associated Press fact check shows that the connections between Obama and Ayers are a bit more tenuous -- if there is a connection at all.

So here are the facts:

Ayers was a member of the group when a bomb it was making in a Manhattan townhouse exploded and killed three people. He fled, spend years as a fugitive, met and fell in love with fellow group member Bernadine Dohrn. In the mid-'70s, the federal charges against Ayers and Dohrn were dismissed because of government misconduct. But the two kept underground for three more years. They both surrendered to police in 1980 and were never prosecuted (a point not mentioned during last night's debate).

In 1982 Dohrn spent several months in jail for refusing to give police a sample of her writing while police were investigating a case where three Weathermen and members of the Black Liberation Army killed an armored car driver and two policemen during a botched robbery. Dohrn was not involved in the incident in any way, but refused to give the police the sample "on principle."

When Obama was organizing his first race for the state legislature [in 1995], the incumbent lawmaker he hoped to replace introduced him to her supporters and urged them to back Obama. One introductory event took place at the home of Ayers and Dohrn, according to published reports. Ayers contributed $200 to Obama's legislative campaign in 2001, but there is no other sign that he has actively aided Obama's political career.

Ayers and Obama both served on the board of the Woods Fund, a Chicago-based charity that focuses on developing community groups to assist the poor. Local business executives ... and journalists .. are also members, as well as local academics.

Here's a good 2001 profile of Ayers by the Chicago Tribune.

----
UPDATE: The Swamp reports that Mayor Richard Daley comes to Obama's defense.

The mayor released the following statement:

"There are a lot of reasons that Americans are angry about Washington politics. And one more example is the way Senator Obama's opponents are playing guilt-by-association, tarring him because he happens to know Bill Ayers.

"I also know Bill Ayers. He worked with me in shaping our now nationally-renowned school reform program. He is a nationally-recognized distinguished professor of education at the University of Illinois/Chicago and a valued member of the Chicago community.

"I don't condone what he did 40 years ago but I remember that period well. It was a difficult time, but those days are long over. I believe we have too many challenges in Chicago and our country to keep re-fighting 40 year old battles."

But the Clinton campaign won't give up. In conference calls today, Clinton spokesman said Ayers "political" relationship with Obama was more important than President Clinton's decision to pardon two of former Weather Underground members, Susan Rosenberg and Linda Evans on terrorist related weapons charges.

Communications director Howard Wolfson also said that "Bill Ayers is unrepentant of what he did???and that is a difference, of course, between Linda Evans and Susan Rosenberg." But when Evans was released after Bill Clinton pardoned her, she told the Austin American-Statesman, "I'm not repentant. That's for sure. I wouldn't go about it the same (violent) way." But "we still need solutions, and we still need justice just as badly as we ever did."

"Asked if Hillary Clinton had expressed any disagreement with her husband's actions in commuting the sentences of Rosenberg and Evans, Wolfson said only that he would ask the candidate."

8:09 PM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Supporter Switches to Obama

In the past 48 hours, four more superdelegates have declared for Sen. Barack Obama.

The latest endorsement comes from newly elected superdelegate and D.C. city council member Harry Thomas Jr., until now a Clinton supporter. He announced this morning that he is switching his support to Sen. Barack Obama. Thomas found himself on the tail end of 100 phone calls from Obama supporters who were afraid he would use his vote to support Clinton despite the city's overwhelming support for the Illinois senator.

"After meeting with the candidates and listening to my constituents, I have to honor the 83 percent who support Barack Obama," he said in an interview with the Washington Post, referring to the results of the Democratic primary.

It's rather amazing, really, how the Obama campaign is able to turn lemons into lemonade. These superdelegate announcements seem to come right at the moments that Obama needs them the most, and help maintain in the media that sense of momentum he wants to create.

2:19 PM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (26) | e-mail post

 

McCain's Health Care Plan Depends on Cost Cutting

Democrats Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton continue to debate their plans to cover the 47 million Americans who currently have no health insurance. But Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain wants to take the debate in a different direction.

"The problem is not that most Americans lack adequate health insurance -- the vast majority of Americans have private insurance, and our government spends billions each year to provide even more," McCain has said. "The biggest problem with the American health care system is that it costs too much."

McCain wants to get people to buy their own insurance, rather than get it through their jobs. NPR's Julie Rovner reports that McCain would accomplish this in a variety of ways: giving people tax credits, encouraging more people to set up tax-advantaged health savings accounts, and letting them buy insurance policies across state lines.

And no mandates for McCain. If you don't want health insurance, you don't have to get it.

What do you think of this plan? Would tax breaks encourage you to buy your own insurance? Is a mandate to have health care a good or bad idea?

1:57 PM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

 

Mitt Romney's Top Ten Reasons to Drop Out of GOP Race

Last night, one of the featured speakers at the Radio-Television Correspondents Association dinner (What! They weren't all covering the debate?) in Washington was former Massachusetts Governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

He gave his top ten reasons about why he decided to get out of the race (quite funny, although he needs to learn to wait for laugh lines better -- see video below).:

10. There weren't as many Osmonds as I thought.
9. I got tired of corkscrew landings under sniper fire.
8. As a lifelong hunter, I didn't want to miss the start of the varmint season.
7. There wasn't room for two Christian leaders.
6. I was upset that no one had bothered to search my passport files.
5. I needed an excuse to get fat, grow a beard and win the Nobel prize.
4. I wanted to finally take off that dark suit and tie, and kick back in a light-colored suit and tie.
3. Once my wife Ann realized I couldn't win, my fundraising dried up.
2.I took a bad fall at a campaign rally and broke my hair.
1. There was a miscalculation in our theory: "As Utah goes, so goes the nation."

Here's the video of Romney at the dinner:

12:23 PM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Dispute Erupts Over Clinton's '95 Remarks

The other day the News Blog reported on a story in the Huffington Post about a comment made by Hillary Clinton during a 1995 retreat to discuss the gains made by the Republicans in the off-year elections in 1994. "Screw 'em," Clinton was quoted as saying about poor white southern males.

Author Benjamin Barber witnessed and wrote about in his book, "The Truth of Power: Intellectual Affairs in the Clinton White House." His account was confirmed by Harry Boyte, the director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Democracy and Citizenship.

But as First Read reports, last night in the debate spin room, and this morning on MSNBC's Morning Joe with Joe Scarborough, Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson said it never happened.

"It ain't so. It ain't so," he said. "This is not something that occurred." Wolfson dismissed it as a sign of the 'situation' that the Obama campaign is in. "It did not happen," he said again.

But First Read also talked to Barber, who stuck by his story. He said that it was important to remember that it wasn't just Hillary who was angry at the time: "everyone in that room back in '95 was angry about the Republicans taking over Congress. The only person who wasn't angry was Bill, who (as the HuffPo piece also explains) talked about the importance of reaching out to white southerners."

Meanwhile, a third person has come forward to confirm the remarks. Alan Wolfe, a professor of political science, director of the Boisi Center for Religion and American Public Life at Boston College and a contributor to The New Republic, also remembers the remark.

"So, you've got two guys we've barely heard of remembering a verbatim quote from 13 years ago?... Sounds totally and completely reliable," responded Jay Carson from the Clinton campaign. Make that three. I was there. I hope people have heard of me. And Barber and Boyte have it right.

Is this a possible sniper-fire situation in early development?

11:39 AM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (21) | e-mail post

 

ABC News Panned for Debate Performance

Barack Obama's performance during Wednesday night's debate left a lot to be desired, but he's not the only one whose performance has been panned. ABC News' co-hosts of the debate, Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopolous, have come in for some pretty tough reviews as well.

For starters, it was a bad sign when people in the audience booed the two men at the end of last night's debate.

Tom Shales, the TV critic for the Washington Post called their performance "shoddy and despicable." In a piece entitled, "In PA debate, ABC is the clear loser," Shales wrote:

"For the first 52 minutes of the two-hour, commercial-crammed show, Gibson and Stephanopoulos dwelled entirely on specious and gossipy trivia that already has been hashed and rehashed, in the hope of getting the candidates to claw at one another over disputes that are no longer news. Some were barely news to begin with ...At the end, Gibson pompously thanked the candidates -- or was he really patting himself on the back? -- for "what I think has been a fascinating debate." He's entitled to his opinion, but the most fascinating aspect was waiting to see how low he and Stephanopoulos would go, and then being appalled at the answer."

Editor and Publisher's Greg Mitchell was equally hard hitting.

"In perhaps the most embarrassing performance by the media in a major presidential debate in years, ABC News hosts Charles Gibson and George Stephanopolous focused mainly on trivial issues as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama faced off in Philadelphia."

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo said after ABC's performance Wednesday night, the debate should be given back to the League of Women Voters.

Jason Linkins, who covers media and politics for the Huffington Post was equally hard hitting. "Worst. Debate. Ever."

"Like I said, there have been several thousand of these debates. Most, I've watched. Many, I've covered or liveblogged. A few, I have sat very still, and hoped for the sweet release that only the icy hand of death can provide. Tonight was the first time I would have dearly loved to see Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama team up and turn the tables on their interrogators."

The Los Angeles Times "Top of the Ticket" blog was gentler, noting that the two ABC hosts were in a "no-win situation."

"After a period when it seemed there was a debate every other day, almost two months had passed since the last one.Gibson and Stephanopoulos could have ignored the various furors that have flared -- and been thoroughly covered -- over that time. But they would have been widely scorned had they done so. So they raised the expected topics (and, as a result, have been widely scorned anyway): Rev. Jeremiah Wright's rants; the non-existent sniping in Bosnia; 'bittergate.' "

Meanwhile, the feedback page on ABC's website received almost 12,000 comments following the debate, the vast majority of them negative.
---

UPDATE: This is making the rounds on the Internet right now.

10:05 AM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post

 

Obama Picks Up Endorsements of Paper, Superdelegate

Sen. Barack Obama picked up two more endorsements Thursday morning. Again, timing couldn't have been better for the Obama campaign, coming right after a shaky debate performance Wednesday night.

The Philadelphia Daily News endorsed Obama, saying that he should be judged by what he was done in his campaign and before.

"An Obama administration would be freer of the the corrupting influence of big-money donors and corporate interests. Obama has raised $240 million overall, with half coming in contributions of less than $200. People who contribute to political campaigns can feel they "own" a candidate and so Obama would owe allegiance to the wide swath of America that has financed his campaign.

"Based on his experience in running a quarter-billion-dollar enterprise with thousands upon thousands of volunteers, we could expect an Obama administration to be well-managed and cost-effective, with the president choosing forward-thinking advisers committed to his program, demanding that they work as a team and pay attention to details."

Meanwhile, Oklahoma superdelegate Reggie Whitten also announced his support for Obama, citing the candidate's ability to unite people for change and his track record "of standing up for working and middle-class families.
---
UPDATE: Clinton picked up a newspaper endorsement herself today. The Daily Pennsylvanian, the independent student paper at the University of Pennsylvania, says that "is ready to lead this nation now. A successful champion for change, her experience in the Senate and as first lady gives her a better understanding of how Washington works. She has the ability to turn policy into reality. And her mastery of causes central to the Democratic Party's platform makes her better suited to challenge presumptive Republican nominee John McCain."

8:20 AM ET | 04-17-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

First Responses to Democratic Debate

The first wave of responses are in to tonight's Democratic debate. Not much good news for Sen. Barack Obama.

Marc Ambinder of theAtlantic.com writes that there is no way tonight's debate can be considered a good thing for Barack Obama.

"Keeping the score card, there's no way this debate could have fared worse for Barack Obama. Nearly 45 minutes of relentless political scrutiny from the ABC anchors and from Hillary Clinton, followed by an issues-and-answers session in which his anger carried over and sort of neutered him. But Hillary Clinton has a Reverse-Teflon problem: her negatives are up, and when she's perceived as the attacker, the attacks never seem to settle on Obama and always seem to boomerang back on her. So it would be unwise to declare that Hillary "won" the debate in the dynamic sense just yet. (How much money will Obama raise off this debate? $3m million? $4 million?) ... Obama's supporters like to see him fight back against the Man... witness his quick response to "bittergate".....; tonight, it seemed as if he was surprised by the pace of the questions and all the air was gone from his answers."

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo felt the ABC team of Charlie Gibson and George Stehapanopolis did a really bad job tonight.

Continue reading "First Responses to Democratic Debate" »

10:46 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (33) | e-mail post

 

Live Blogging the Democratic Debate

Obama making opening statement, talking about people being frustrated at economic situation. "They are frustrated with Washington and not being listened to...I'm running for president for that reason."

Clinton: People feel their government is not solving problems. Provide health care, education true passport to opportunity...I'm running because I feel we can fulfill the promise of tomorrow."

Wow, a commercial debate after short opening speeches.

Gibson starts with a zinger ... why won't you choose each other as vice presidential nominee?

Obama starts with an answer - it's too early to say. We're still in middle of campaign. But both candidates will be working together after convention

Clinton, "I'll do everything I can to make sure one of us is presidential nominee. I'll go anywhere to make the case and I know Barack will too...I've traveled the country and seen the failed Bush polices. So regardless of differences between us, th things we have in common are greater."

Gibson now asks Obama about "bitter" remark

Obama says I did not express myself well. "But what I was trying to say was that when people feel they can't count on Washington, they start to care more about issues like guns and hot-button issues. When those issues are exploited, it makes us harder to solve other issues.'

Clinton: "I'm the granddaughter of a mill worker from Scranton ... I don't believe that my grandfather or my father cling to religion when Washington is not listening to them. That is a fundamental misunderstanding." Same with guns. "That is not how people live their lives. Sure, people are frustrated, but it doesn't work that way.

George Stephanopoulos: Do you think Obama can beat John McCain or not.

She avoids the question. "We have to beat McCain ... after having gone through 16 years of being attacked by Republicans we have to go after every vote everywhere.

"But can he beat McCain?"

"Yes, yes, yes, but I can do a better job."

"Sen. Obama do you think that see can beat McCain?"

"Yes, I've said so before ... but I want to talk about things that she said, and how she has referred to me as an elitist .. As a man of faith I've done a lot to reach out to these groups, ...

Obama brings up the "baking cookie remark" from 1992 as an example of a stupid statement. "I remember watching that on TV, and said to myself, that's not who she is..."

Clinton: "I was responding to your remarks ... obviously what we have to do as Democrats is make sure we have enough votes to win in November ... as George said, GOP will jump on them"

Gibson asks why he rescinded invitation to Wright to announce presidency if he had never seen or heard bad things?

Obama says it was based on statements that Wright had just made in Rolling Stone magazine ... Obama said he made his speech on race because we need to move beyond race.'

Gibson: Do you honestly believe that 8,000 people should have walked out of the church?

Clinton: I made a personal remark, I can only speak for myself ... you get to choose your pastor, not your family.

Obama points out that Clinton's own pastor pointed out that Obama maintained a vibrant ministry for years ...unless we can bridge some of these divides, we won't get anywhere." Talks about his work as community divide.

George S.: Do you think that Wright loves America as much as you do? If you get the nomination, what about seeing all those videos again and again?

Obama says that if it wasn't this, it would be something else ... the notion that Americans would be distracted by something that somebody other than me says, doesn't give American people enough credit

GeorgeS: Does he love America as much as you do?

Obama points out that Wright was a Marine, but he is angry about things that he saw later.

George S. asks about poll that shows people don't trust her. Plays video of voter who said he lost his vote.

Clinton blames her Bosnia mistake on lack of sleep [important to note that comments were also made in the morning].. things happen when you talk as much as we do ... I apologize, I said I was sorry ...

Obama says that what is important that we don't get so caught up in attacking each other that we forget about economy, Iraq war, etc. ... for us to be obsesses with these mistake and not focus on what we need to do.

Gibson: Voter asks Obama why you don't wear American flag? ... how do you convince Democrats that this would not be a vulnerability.

Obama, "I revere the flag and the country" ... says his story would not be possible in any other country .."I've tried to show my patriotism in the way I treat veterans in Congress, the way I feel about the Iraq war ... I will fight for those issues ... the kind of manufactured issue that is a problem in this campaign.'

George S: Asks about relationship to former Weatherman William Ayers.

Obama: This kind of game, that anyone I know, that their ideas could be attributed to me, the American people are smarter than that.

Clinton still tries to pin him more to William Ayers, using the guilt by association argument to say that the Republicans will use it against him.

Obama points out that President Clinton pardoned two members of the Weatherman Underground. Obama says he has taken some tough punches from Clinton. 'I'm looking forward to debating McCain ... When people are voting, they are going to be thinking about Bush policies, not who I might know vaguely"

Commercial break

(As Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com notes, 35 minutes of shots to Obama's midsection ... ABC is treating him as the front runner. Also please excuse any typos, we'll go back and correct between breaks)

Gibson: If military commanders say to you that bringing those troops home would be bad for situation, would you still do it?

Clinton says yes ... best interests of US and Iraq to do so. She says she will immediately ask JCofS to draw up plans to bring home troops, carefully, and tell Iraq that their blank check is gone.

Gibson continues attack, "Are you saying you know better than commanders?'

Clinton says no, but anything can happen. "We have to end problems in Iraq so we can solve other problems in the world ... Bottom line is that we don't know what will happen if we withdraw, but we do know that if we stay it won't be good for Iraq or the US."

Gibson asks same of Obama

Obama says yes, because the president sets the mission, and the commanders follow the mission...Obama says he will always listen to his commanders about tactics, but ultimately the buck stops at the president's desk ... points out that the military is so stretched that if another crisis occurs, we can't respond

George S: Should the US treat an attack on Israel as an attack on the U.S.?

Obama responds that the first thing to do is to make sure that Iran does not get nuclear weapons ... he would talk to Iran, but he would make it clear that an attack on Israel would be strongly dealt with by the U.S.

Clinton agrees, and says that she would expand that deterrent to include other countries' attacks on Israel or other countries friendly to the U.S. Clinton says that she would engage Iran, had to be done, but not through Ahmedinejad.

George S: Will you make a no new taxes for people making less than 200,000 a year and still role back tax breaks if economy is bad?

Clinton says she will role back tax cuts for wealthy regardless of economy. When asked, Obama agrees and said he would cut taxes for people with incomes less than 200,000. Part of his tax plan.

Gibson says Obama would favor a capital gains tax increase, but no more than Clinton did. But Gibson says when capital gains taxes up, revenues down and vice versa

Obama said he brings it up for issues of fairness. People who amass huge capital gains are paying less than their taxes ... Obama says he believe in principle that you pay as you go. Can't have tax cuts without picking it up in other areas.

Clinton says we can do better by investing rather than taxing people ... but she does say that she would raise the capital gains tax, but not above the 20 percent of her husband's administration.

Obama says that he wants to raise the cap on the pay roll tax, especially for those making way more than 97,000 a year. He says only six percent of public fits. Gibson keeps trying to pin it as a tax increase, but Obama says he would be willing to look at limiting impact of those between 100,000 and 250,000 but you still have to do something to solve the social security problem

Clinton says that we can be smarter about doing it, she would call a commission to study it. But Obama points out that the '83 commission mentioned by Clinton not only raised the retirement age but also the capital gains tax. So he says Clinton attacks me for my solution, when she really hasn't got any better answers.

Commercial break

Gibson asks about both candidates past strong statements about need for gun control?

Clinton says she'll bring back cop program, assault weapons ban because cops are outgunned, that police departments will get access to information they need to track illegal guns ...Clinton says she respects 2nd amendment but they also want to be sure we keep these guns out of the wrong hands.

Gibson asks Obama about DC's right to bear arms

Obama says that you do have an individually right to bear arms, but local government have a right to decide how you use those weapons, same as property ... Obama says we have to get beyond politics and see what's working. It is perfectly appropriate to find a way to solve the problem.

George S: Asks if she supports DC gun ban?

Clinton dances around question, Gibson asks do you favor licensing of hand guns?

Clinton says she was in favor of New York rules, but they might not work in another part of the country.

George S: Ask about changes to affirmative action to not favor well-off African-Americans

Obama says it depends on the individual situation. He says he still believes in affirmative action, but it can't be a quota system. It has to be looked at the situation of each individual.

Clinton says our job should be to help each individual live up to their individual potential, let's "affirmatively" invest in our young people.

Quick round ...

What about gas prices?

Clinton says we'll investigate prices to make sure we're not being snookered. Not put more gas into strategic reserves .., maybe a windfall gas tax .. maybe a tax holiday

Obama says we have to investigate price gouging .. windfall tax, raise fuel efficiency on cars ... points out that lots of people overseas want cars too, to we have to find ways to increase gas efficiency.

How would you use President Bush if you were president?

Clinton "I'll have to think about that ..." But she says it does matter having all former work together...

Obama says he's more likely to talk to president's father than current president ... better foreign policy.

(Commercial break)

Time for final question

It's all about the superdelegates? How do you make the case for them that you are more electable?

Clinton goes first ... we need a fighter back in the White House ...she has plans to give money back to middle class ... "I can't do this alone" ,,, I think it is absolutely what we must do to give our children the future they need" .., she trots out all the former brass that supports her ... 'I'll need your help, especially in Penn. in order to get to those question."

Obama ... we're at a defining moment in our history ... things aren't good ... people have lost faith in government, people don't want a politics about spin and PR but a real conversation with the American people ... in the past 15 months, my bet has paid off, people do want change ... my point to superdelegates is that we have to form a new political coalition.

And it's over ...

8:03 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Lieberman Ready to Speak at GOP Convention

Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman (I), the Democratic Party's 2000 vice presidential nominee, said Tuesday that he is leaving open the possibility that he would speak on behalf of his friend Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, at the GOP convention in Minneapolis. The Hill reports that Republicans close to the McCain campaign "say Lieberman's appearance at the convention, possibly before a national primetime audience, could help make the case that the presumptive GOP nominee has a record of crossing the aisle. That could appeal to much-needed independent voters."

Democrats have given Lieberman a long leash this year because they need his vote to keep their 51-49 majority in the Senate. But if they pick up several Senate seats in 2008, as is expected, their patience might grow short. Lieberman is close to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, so it would probably take a lot for Reid to back an effort to toss his friend out of his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

But if he did appear at the GOP convention, and gave a former Georgia Sen. Zell Miller-like speech (Miller was a Democrat who attacked his party's nominee, John Kerry) then that could be the deciding factor. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) said he doubts Lieberman would give a Miller-like speech.

"I don't think he's going to act like that if he does that," Brown said. "But of course, I would be disappointed if he does that."

7:42 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

"Bitter" Remark Does Not Seem to be Swaying Voters

While it's too early to look at the overall impact of Sen. Barack Obama's now infamous "bitter" remarks (how will it play in the fall election?) it does not seem to be doing him much damage right now.

Meanwhile, the website that started the whole imbroglio, Huffington Post, unearthed a comment made by Hillary Clinton about working-class Americans that may not help her campaign.

Gallup reports that its daily tracking "indicates that Obama's support has yet to suffer following his widely reported remarks about small-town voters."

"Clinton and other Obama critics have characterized his remarks as being insensitive to less-well-educated, lower-income, and religious voters. If his comments are to affect any voters, presumably it would be voters in these subgroups. But an in-depth analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data collected both before and after the controversy shows little or no change in support for Obama as the Democratic nominee among these types of Democratic voters."

The Swamp reports Clinton that "may not be getting the hoped for impact from her latest TV ad in Pennsylvania." The ad features Pennsylvanians talking about being offended by Obama's remarks.

Continue reading ""Bitter" Remark Does Not Seem to be Swaying Voters" »

5:15 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Reuters/Zogby: McCain Is Best Steward for Economy

In what could be a very important indicator for Sen. John McCain, a new poll from Zogby/Reuters shows that Americans favor him as the best steward for the economy by three points over Sen. Barack Obama and by five-point over Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The poll was taken a few days before McCain's major economic speech on Tuesday, which was fairly well received by media and financial experts, although it's emphasis on a gas-tax holidy bothered some Republicans and Democrats who wondered where the money would come from to replace it in the federal treasury.

In a national race, Obama and McCain are even at 45%, with McCain slightly ahead of Clinton 46% to 41%. Interestingly, the poll also included the presence of Ralph Nader and libertarian Bob Barr (if he does win that party's presidential nomination). In both contests, Nader drew 3% and Barr 2%. McCain fared slightly worse against Obama with Barr -- Barr's impact with conservative voters? -- and Nader in the race, but their presence did not change his margin over Clinton.

"Obama still does better than Clinton against McCain, but it's a very close race either way," pollster John Zogby said. "Obama and Clinton hurt each other the longer their race drags on, and McCain is getting a free pass."
---
UPDATE: McCain might get high marks on the economy, but it's getting failing grades on his culinary ideas.

The Washington Post reports that several recipes attributed to Cindy McCain were actually copied word from word from The Food Network's site.

"Apparently a Web intern added Rachael Ray to our policy team without her knowing it," McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds deadpanned yesterday. "He was swiftly dealt with, and the page is down for revision."

4:19 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

Clinton Vows to Protect Military Jobs in Indiana

Sen. Hillary Clinton launched a new ad today in Indiana that focuses on the loss of American defense industry jobs to overseas firms, in this case to China.

The ad features former employees of Magnaquench who lost their jobs along with more than 200 others in the state in 2003 when the company closed its Indiana plant and shipped production of high-performance magnets used for the U.S. military's "smart bombs" to China.

Reuters reported Monday that Clinton "proposed new requirements to toughen reviews of foreign investment in national security industries and technologies. She also promised to strengthen the 'specialty metals clause' that requires certain vital metals used in defense manufacturing be produced in the United States. Clinton said she would spend $75 million to create a new task force on industrial espionage to investigate and prosecute cases of espionage and information theft."

Here's the ad:

3:12 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Clinton and Obama Exchange Musical Endorsements

Has it come to this? Superdelegates are so reluctant to say who they plan to back that the campaigns are now asking their favorite musicians to declare their support.

First it was Sen. Barack Obama's campaign announcing that the Boss, Bruce Springsteen was going to throw his support to the Illinois Senator.

"He has the depth, the reflectiveness, and the resilience to be our next President," Springsteen said in an e-mailed statement. "He speaks to the America I've envisioned in my music for the past 35 years, a generous nation with a citizenry willing to tackle nuanced and complex problems, a country that's interested in its collective destiny and in the potential of its gathered spirit. A place where "...nobody crowds you, and nobody goes it alone."

"Over here on E Street, we're proud to support Obama for president."

Not to be outdone, the Clinton campaign a few hours later announced that legendary Latin musician Willie Colón, was backing the New York Senator.

"Hillary has been on the side of our families for over 35 years -- she has been with us from the very beginning. I want a President who I can count on, someone who in tough times will be there for me -- that's why I'm supporting Hillary Clinton," said Colón.

Well, we don't know who'll win the Democratic nomination, or if they'll win the presidency, but if they do, they'll have great music at the inauguration.

Here's a little Springsteen:

And a little Willie Colón:

1:24 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

Bryant Gumbel Talks Round Ball with Obama

OK, we know that Obama says he's got game on the basketball court. Bryant Gumbel tried to find out on Tuesday night on HBO's Real Sports.

It's a pretty interesting interview. Obama has loved basketball since his father gave him when he was eight on on one of the few trips his dad made to visit him in Hawaii. It became a passion and a refuge for Obama, and as he notes, one of the few places were it was OK to be black in an almost all white environment. His high school went on to win the Hawaii state championship in his varsity year -- when he was Barry Obama. (His old coach, interviewed for the piece, still calls him Barry.)

Then he went to college and forgot about the sport until he went to Harvard law school where he became addicted to pick-up basketball. When he met his wife, Michelle, asked her brother, former Princeton star and now coach at Oregon State Craig Robinson, to take him out on the court as a way to see if he "passed the test." He did.

The show also features some footage of Obama in a pickup game. He's pretty good actually.

But he's not the player he once was. As Robinson said in the interview, Obama "started out as a black player who played black and is now more of a black player who plays white, just so he doesn't hurt." Robinson added that after age 35, "We all play white." (Translation - slower and closer to the ground.)

Here's the interview:

12:53 PM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Obama Admits "Bitter" Remark a "Distraction" for Dems

In an interview with the editorial board of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Sen. Barack Obama admitted that his comments about residents of small towns in Pennsylvania being bitter about their economic situation and as a result clinging to guns, religion and anti-immigration sentiment "represented a distraction not just from his campaign message but also from Democratic efforts to overcome stereotypes that Republicans have exploited for decades."

"What I do regret is that in one quick statement that wasn't phrased properly I detracted from what I think has to be a genuine effort on the part of Democrats to speak to constituencies we haven't always reached out to," Mr. Obama said during a wide-ranging interview with the paper.

"The basic proposition, what I was trying to say is something I deeply believe, which is that people feel abandoned economically, they don't feel that Washington pays any attention to them. They have heard a lot of empty promises over the last two to three decades ... they're very cynical about the possibility of change.

"They then rely on those things that they can count on. They rely on faith, just like I rely on faith when times are rocky for me. They rely on traditions, like hunting that's been passed on through generation to generation to generation. When people are angry and frustrated they are also subject to being divided, and politicians will exploit those instincts about so-called wedge issues. Karl Rove explicitly targets those issues and made it an entire campaign strategy over two elections."

Meanwhile, the paper itself announced its endorsement of Obama: "Pennsylvania -- this encrusted, change-averse commonwealth where a state liquor monopoly holds on against all reason and where municipal fiefdoms shrink from sensible consolidation -- needs to take a strong look at the new face and the new hope in this race. Because political business-as-usual is more likely to bring the usual disappointment for the Democrats this fall, the Post-Gazette endorses the nomination of Barack Obama, who has brought an excitement and an electricity to American politics not seen since the days of John F. Kennedy."

10:08 AM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post

 

Two New Polls Have Tough News for Clinton

Two new polls -- Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Washington Post/ABC News -- have some tough news for Sen. Hillary Clinton and lots of good news for Sen. Barack Obama.

The Times/Bloomberg poll shows that Clinton is "losing traction" to Obama in key states like Pennsylvania and Indiana. The survey found that she leads Obama by five-points in the Keystone State, 46% to 41% and is behind him by five-points in Indiana, 40% to 35%. In North Carolina, Obama has a 13-point lead. The survey was conducted under the supervision of the Times poll director. Over 600 people were surveyed in each state, and each survey had a margin of error of +/- four percent.

One interesting finding in the poll - the Rev. Jeremiah Wright flap appears to be helping, not hurting Obama in Pennsylvania: "24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views." But many in each state think the issue could "hamper him" in a general election.

One bit of good news for Clinton is that there are huge numbers of undecided in each state, 12% in Pennsylvania, 19% in Indiana and 17% in North Carolina.

Meanwhile, a Post/ABC poll shows finds that by a 2-1 majority, Democrats believe that Obama is more electable in the fall election. That's a significant blow to the Clinton campaign, which has made Obama's electability a major issue.

"The poll finds other pronounced problems for Clinton. Among all Americans, 58 percent now say she's not honest and not trustworthy, 16 points higher than in a precampaign poll two years ago. Obama beats her head-to-head on this attribute by a 23-point margin. The number of Americans who see Clinton unfavorably overall has risen to a record high in ABC/Post polling, 54 percent -- up 14 points since January. Obama's unfavorable score has reached a new high as well, up 9 points, but to a lower 39 percent."

But the poll also shows that Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are growing wearing of the campaign. Many believe it has become too negative and that the candidates spend too much time arguing about "things that really aren't important." And here is another bit of bad news for Clinton - most people blame Clinton for the problem, by a margin of 52% to 14 %, while 25% blame both equally.

8:45 AM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

No Parties for Michigan, Florida in Denver

Now we known the Democratic National Committee is serious and that Michigan and Florida may be in REAL trouble.

The 2008 Democratic Convention Watch blog reported yesterday that the host committee in the Mile High City, where the convention is being held this August, announced the list of "Welcome Event Venues" (as in cheap buffets and unlimited drinks) for the various state delegations. And lo and behold, there are no welcome events for Michigan and Florida.

And while it may be like hotel rooms in Denver -- "we'll find space once we work it out" -- it's going to be tough to find space for these two delegations. There are limited venues for the parties, so states have had to double and triple up. (In one case, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia are sharing a spot.) As NPR's Robert Smith pointed out in an e-mail, "even if the two outlaw delegations are eventually seated, they may only be able to book the birthday room at the Boulder McDonalds."

8:00 AM ET | 04-16-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Pro-Democrat 527 Airs First Anti-McCain Ad

In a very limited ad buy (what you might call a "soft launch") the Democrats' major 527 (Progressive Media USA) aired its first anti-John McCain ad on CNN and MSNBC in the Washington D.C market (which includes northern Virginia and Maryland.)

As you remember, 527s are "independent" tax-exempt groups (named after a section of the U.S tax code) that raise and spend money to support various issues - they just aren't allowed to directly advocate the election or defeat of a candidate, although they can often inflict great damage. Just ask Sen. John Kerry.

This first attack ad features lots of footage of John McCain and (surprise, surprise) President George W. Bush.

As Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com writes, "Progressive Media USA promises to raise tens of millions of dollars. This first effort of theirs is probably aimed at spurring donations and demonstrating the type of ads the group wants to run."

6:41 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post

 

McCain Blasts Rivals, and President, Over Economy

In an interview with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain took time to blast Sen. Barack Obama for his comments over attitudes in small town Pennsylvania about guns and religion, and to knock both him and Sen. Hillary Clinton for their statements about free trade, "accusing them of promoting 'isolationism and protectionism."

While admitting that trade agreements have "left people behind," McCain said that overall free trade has been good for America, and that he wants to help misplaced workers in states like Wisconsin with more effective training and education programs.

"Senator Obama and Senator Clinton want to, quote, unilaterally renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement," McCain said. "That would be breaking a solemn treaty, including the one (NAFTA) that was ratified under President Clinton. And what's to say that doesn't send a message to every nation in the world that we have an agreement with, that we're going to, quote, unilaterally renegotiate it. It's crazy!"

But it wasn't just the Democrats who came under McCain's fire. Asked how his economic policies would differ from President Bush's, McCain was blunt.

"Spending, spending, spending. This administration let spending get completely out of control. We mortgaged our children's futures and it led to corruption, and we presided over the largest increase in the size of government since the Great Society."

McCain gave a major economic speech at Carnegie Mellon University earlier in the day were he called on Republicans to return to their tradition of small government and limited federal spending.

McCain says he feels that Wisconsin is a "winnable" state for him. Although it hasn't voted for a Republican since Ronald Reagan, it was the closest contest in the 2004 election and is expected to be heavily targeted by the GOP this fall.

4:08 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post

 

Thousands of New Voters Register in North Carolina

It's amazing what an election year with no obvious heir at president can do for voter registration in a state. In the case of North Carolina, it's not just the race for president that is drawing people - the governor's chair is up for grabs as well.

And that means that North Carolina is following the trend of many other states, seeing a significant increase in the number of people registering to vote. The Raleigh News and Observer reports that 144, 744 new voters registered by last Friday's deadline for "traditional" registeration. (Voters in the state can still register and vote at "one-stop" sites until May 3rd.)

Slightly more than half of the new voters are Democrats. In all, new registered voters were: 76,131 Democrats, or 53 percent; 53,732 unaffiliated, or 37 percent; and 14,911 Republicans, or 10 percent. That left the state with 5.75 million voters.

The influx of new voters across the country makes this year's Democratic primary, and eventual presidential race harder to predict that ever. Will these new Democratic voters return in the fall if their candidate does not win? If they do, how could they change the dynamic in states like North Carolina or Virginia, that have been trending Democratic in the past few years?

3:09 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Democrats Use FEC Lawsuit to Pressure McCain

While the candidates were trading rhetorical volleys over Sen. Barack Obama's "bitter" remarks yesterday, yet another legal front was opened in the fight over the money that pays for their campaigns.

The Democratic National Committee sued the Federal Election Commission. The lawsuit accuses the commission, saying it's failed in its obligation to investigate Republican John McCain's campaign finances. It's another consequence of the FEC's being non-functional in the midst of the biggest fundraising season in history, unable to act because it lacks the necessary number of commissioners.

The Democrats' lawsuit has a couple of angles to it. One is legal and technical. (More on that below.) The other is political. The Democrats want to generate stories like this one. They want to remind voters of questions about McCain's campaign finance troubles, while Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama go on wrangling over the Democratic nomination.

"I think this lawsuit is in large part designed to keep this issue before the public," says Tony Corrado, a political scientist at Colby College, and a specialist in campaign finance law. "The Democrats are trying to keep the pressure on John McCain because they want to keep making the case that he has somehow violated the law."

So here's the legal/technical part of the case.

Democrats say McCain has violated campaign finance law, and he's getting away with it, because the enforcement agency, the Federal Election Commission, hasn't been able to function. The commission needs 4 commissioners to decide anything and it only has 2, thanks to a standoff between Senate Democrats and the White House over confirmation of three nominees.

McCain's lawyers say his alleged violation is no violation at all. Here's what happened:

Continue reading "Democrats Use FEC Lawsuit to Pressure McCain" »

2:20 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

 

Unmarried Women Could Pay Huge Role in Fall Campaign

A new poll shows that there is a huge gap between married and single women in how they view the candidates, the issues, and the choices America faces. The poll done by Democratic pollsters Stan Greenberg and Anna Greenberg of Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research found that "unmarried women tend Democratic, preferring a Democrat to a Republican for President by 41 percentage points, and are already playing a large role in the Democratic primaries."

(Disclosure: Together with Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, Stan Greenberg conducts bi-partisan surveys for NPR on the main issues of the day.)

The poll had some interesting findings. The idea of a "women's agenda" is outdated. What matters now is more of a "life stage" agenda - thus the split between married and unmarried women.

While both groups prefer Democrats in a generic campaign, when the candidates' names are added differences emerge. Clinton and Obama continue to lead only among unmarried women (62 to 31 percent) by significant margins. Married women split their vote between McCain and Clinton or McCain and Obama.

There are issues that the two subsets agree on: 77 percent of married and unmarried women agree that the country is headed in the wrong direction, and both groups of agree that the economy is the number one issue this year.

But the poll also shows that neither Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton have done a good job of winning the support of this unmarried women. And the pollster say that it is a group that is poised to turn out in record numbers in 2008.

"At 26% of the electorate, unmarried women now represent a larger portion of voters than blacks and Hispanics combined," said Page Gardner, President, Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund in a release that accompanied the survey. "Yet their priorities aren't on any candidate's agenda. If either of the candidates wants to be the nominee, and then wants to win in November, he or she needs to learn to connect with these women in terms of how they live."

This is an even more interesting comment: "Unmarried women are to progressives what evangelicals were to conservatives in 2004," said Stan Greenberg. "Unmarried women will make a tremendous impact in primaries and caucuses this year, and they are the road to the White House in 2008 general elections."

12:33 PM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

 

McCain Calls for Gas Tax Holiday

Republican presidential hopeful John McCain called for a temporary lifting of federal fuel taxes, in order to cut gas prices during the busy summer driving season. Speaking on a day when oil prices hit a new high, John McCain said the federal government could provide temporary relief by lifting its 18-cents-a-gallon gas tax between Memorial Day to Labor Day.

"The effect will be an immediate economic stimulus, taking a few dollars off a tank of gas every time a family, a farmer, or a trucker stops to fill up."

He also reiterated his earlier proposal to stop adding to the federal government's strategic petroleum reserve, in an effort to rein in record-high oil prices.

"And because the cost of gas affects the price of food, packaging, and just about everything else, these steps will help spread relief across the American economy."

The Labor Department says rising energy and food costs are largely responsible for the second-highest jump in wholesale prices in three decades last month.

McCain also called for permanent tax changes, including a cut in corporate tax rates, a doubling of the tax exemption for dependent children, and a simplification of the overall tax code. During a wide-ranging economic speech, the Arizona Senator also reiterated his commitment to free trade, and called for a one-year freeze in the federal government's discretionary spending.

Sen. Barack Obama's campaign was quick to respond to the McCain speech.

"Senator McCain's economic plan offers no change from George Bush's failed policies by going full speed ahead with fiscally irresponsible tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans that John McCain himself one said 'offended his conscience.' He also proposes a gift basket of new tax cuts for corporate America at a time when some CEOs are making more in a day than some workers make in a year. John McCain's plan is one that could have been written by the corporate lobbyists who run his campaign, and probably was," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

-- Scott Horsley

11:42 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post

 

Bob Johnson Says Ferarro Had It Right

He's back!

Bob Johnson, the former owner of Black Entertainment Television (BET) and owner of the Charlotte Bobcats, who made headlines in January when he talked about Sen. Barack Obama's admitted experiments with drugs when he was a youth, is at it again. The Charlotte Observer reports that his time the prominent Clinton supporter says that Geraldine Ferarro had it right - Barack Obama would not be leading the race for the Democratic presidential nomination if he were white.

"What I believe Geraldine Ferraro meant is that if you take a freshman senator from Illinois called 'Jerry Smith' and he says I'm going to run for president, would he start off with 90 percent of the black vote?" Johnson said. "And the answer is, probably not... ."

"Geraldine Ferraro said it right. The problem is, Geraldine Ferraro is white. This campaign has such a hair-trigger on anything racial ... it is almost impossible for anybody to say anything."

Johnson also rejected the idea that Obama had built a broad coalition, saying most of his support from African Americans and white liberals but not white, working-class Democrats.

"I don't think he has that common -- what I call 'I-want-to-go-out-and-have-a-drink-with-you -- touch'," Johnson said.

Johnson said Obama would probably win the nomination because he has the support of the "liberal" media.

The Obama campaign dismissed Johnson's comments.

"This is just one in a long line of absurd comments by Bob Johnson and other Clinton supporters who will say or do anything to get the nomination," said spokesman Dan Leistikow. "The American people are tired of this and are ready to turn the page on these kind of attack politics."

(Hat tip - Michael Olson)

10:37 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post

 

Quinnipiac Poll Shows Clinton Keeps 6-point Lead

In a new poll just out, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute's latest Pennsylvania's survey shows that Sen. Hillary Clinton has maintained her six-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama. Quinnipiac's assistant polling director Clay Richards reported that there was "no noticeable [change] in the matchup in polling April 12 - 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama's 'bitter' comments."

More on the poll:

* White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week;
* Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent;
* Women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent, unchanged from 54 - 41 percent last week;
* Men are for Obama 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 48 - 44 percent tie last week;
* Reagan Democrats back Clinton 55 - 40 percent;
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 40 percent.

Fifty-five percent of those polls said they thought Obama would win the Democratic presidential nomination, including 32 percent of Clinton supporters.

"Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama's drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign," said Richards.

"Two big questions are whether the Clinton forces can keep from getting discouraged by all the talk she can't win the nomination even if she wins Pennsylvania and whether enthusiasm for Obama will translate into a record turnout of blacks and young first-time voters that would deny Clinton the victory she needs to stay alive," Richards added.

The poll of more than 2000 likely Democratic voters also found that 26 percent of Clinton voters said they would switch to Republican nominee Sen. John McCain in the fall if Obama was the nominee; 19 percent of Obama supporters said they would switch.

10:05 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

 

Former U.S. Diplomats Worried About U.S. Image

One of the issues sure to come up during this year's presidential election campaign is the image of the U.S. in the rest of the world. There is surprising consensus among the three remaining candidates about the issue; Democrats have been saying for a while that the Bush administration policies have hurt America's image in the world and Republican Presidential nominee Sen. John McCain also recently said that Bush had not paid enough attention to this issue.

Recent international surveys have confirmed this problem. Nearly two-thirds of more than 4,000 respondents in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said they held a "very unfavourable" attitude of the United States, up from 57 percent in late 2006. In a recent Global Attitudes Poll, favorable opinions of the U.S. were up slightly, primarily because many people around the world were looking forward to the end of the Bush administration.

Meanwhile, a study by Quinnipiac University professor of public relations Kathy Fitzpatrick (Fitzpatrick released the study in late March) indicates that there is concern about this issue among American diplomats as well.

An overwhelming majority (88 percent) of more than 200 former high-ranking officers in the United States Information Agency who participated in the study said the U.S. is not diplomatically prepared to address ideological threats to U.S. interests in the 21st century ...

More than 80 percent of the former USIA officers rated American public diplomacy efforts today as either "poor" or "marginal." In contrast, more than 80 percent of the former USIA officers rated America's public diplomacy efforts during the Cold War as "good" or "excellent."

"The responses of these diplomatic experts were both passionate and emphatic," said Fitzpatrick, a professor of public relations who conducted the study. "They clearly believe that much needs to be done to rebuild America's public diplomacy."

Do you think "America's image" will become a campaign image in the fall? Or does the relative agreement of the three candidates on the issue mean it will play a minor role?

8:56 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

 

Cindy McCain More Complex Than Campaign Shows

Jill Zuckman of the Chicago Tribune has an interesting profile of Cindy McCain, the wife of Republican nominee Sen. John McCain. McCain is a far more intriguing personality than her rather quiet campaign role would suggest.

For instance, her very active interest work with Halo Trust, the international group that removes mines from post-conflict countries. Zuckman also talks to McCain about her children, including her son who has served in Iraq, her one-time addiction to pain-killers that was once the subject of a federal investigation, the millions left to her by her father, and her retort (which she said she made on her own) to Michelle Obama's comments about being proud of her country for the first time.

Worth a read.

7:49 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

 

Democratic Candidates Shy Away From Gun Debate

Guns and guns rights, as always, remain a problem for Democratic candidates.

Part of the reason Sen. Barack Obama got into so much hot water with his economically "bitter" Pennsylvanians remarks was that he said they "cling" to guns (and religion) as compensation. And as NPR's Washington Editor Ron Elving noted Monday on Day to Day, "cling" is a word that has all kinds of bad connotations.

Meanwhile, Sen. Hillary Clinton was traveling the state talking about how her grandfather taught her to hunt and shoot. Sen. Obama pounced on this rather unexpected vignette, saying that Clinton sounded like she was "Annie Oakley." This 'champion of gun rights' tact of Clinton was unexpected because only eight years ago in a speech at the Newspaper Association of America meeting she said that "there isn't a more important task" than passing gun-safety laws.

Then the Democrats lost the 2000 presidential election. One reason, beside all the hanging chads in Florida, was that states like West Virginia, Tennessee and Arkansas (all supposedly in the Dem column) went Republican because many voters felt the Democrats were too anti-gun. And ever since, Democrats (on the federal level in particular) tip-toe around guns issues like someone trying to get around a bear in the middle of the path - you don't want to wake it up.

But in Pennsylvania guns are an issue. (The state legislature there recently defeated a measure that would have required handguns owners to tell the police if their weapons were lost or stolen.) The Associated Press has a look at guns and Pennsylvanians, the role the culture of gun ownership plays in the Democratic primary, and why politicians like Hillary Clinton suddenly want to sound like they were born with a rifle in their hands.

6:40 AM ET | 04-15-2008 | permalink | e-mail post

 

Is Obama Behind by 20 Points in Pennsylvania?

A poll out today from the American Research Group caused a bit of a shock for the Obama campaign. It showed him behind Sen. Hillary Clinton by 20 points in Pennsylvania. (And get this - the pollsters at ARG don't think this difference has anything to do with Obama's "bitter" comments.)

But other pollsters are dubious about this one. As Carl Bialik writes in The Wall Street Journal's The Numbers Guy, "there are reasons to question ARG polling numbers."

"In a polling report card of 2008 primary accuracy issued by a rival survey company, ARG ranked in the bottom half of more than three dozen polling firms, among 2008 primaries through late February. It also ranked near the bottom in another ranking of pollster accuracy at fivethirtyeight.com, a Web site that tracks the Electoral College. And, as I wrote last month, the widely tracked polling averages at the political Web site Real Clear Politics don't include ARG numbers, because of concerns about transparency. Like they've been in Pennsylvania, ARG polls also were volatile in previous primaries, notably in Wisconsin, which saw a 16-point swing in just two days."

(Two other recent polls show Clinton with a three-point and a four-point lead. Charles Franklin argues that the ARG poll is an "outlier," a poll that is quite distant from other polling data.)

Dick Bennett, the president of ARG, says while his company struggled in the early states, he says his record had been better in the big states. He attributes Sen. Clinton's apparent gain to Pennsylvania voters' skepticism about the Obama campaign's message. People are telling us that what they're hearing from him ... doesn't speak to the issues they're interested in."

But Clay Richards, the director of the Quinnipiac poll (perhaps the most respected pollster working in Pennsylvania) told Bialik that he doesn't expect his poll -- which will be released tomorrow -- to be much different from the last one that had Clinton leading by six points.

As noted above, neither pollster sees much impact from Obama's comments about "bitter" Pennsylvanians. "My hunch is [the remarks] won't make much of a difference because most voters who might feel insulted by his comments were already Clinton voters or Republicans who weren't going to vote for him, anyway," said Richards.

8:40 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

 

Clinton is the Established "Brand" Candidate

Late last week, the News Blog looked at the "brands" of the candidates, the way they might be packaged as a product. (And let's be honest here, like it or not, that is exactly what happens to almost all political candidates of either party.)

Barack Obama is the "new thing" that appeals to the "millennial" generation. John McCain is the brand that wants to be the insider and the outsider at the same time. And Hillary Clinton?

Well, she comes from the "established" brand of Clinton. As Susan Jung Grant, assistant professor of marketing at the University of Colorado at Boulder explained on All Things Considered, think of Clinton as, well, a potato chip.

"Imagine an established brand, such as Lay's Potato Chips, says Jung Grant."Perhaps Sen. Clinton could be sour cream and chive potato chips," she says. 'It's the idea that it's a little bit different from the main category.' "

(Perhaps salt and vinegar or barbeque might be better, considering the last couple of days in the campaign. Then again, a new campaign slogan: "Betcha can't have just one Clinton.")

While being connected to the established brand is good, it has its drawbacks. "People feel like, 'Well, we know this candidate. We know what to expect.' And so, maybe, it's not invoking people to take a second look -- maybe ... there is almost too much familiarity," Jung Grant says.

But new bit of information can change the way people look at an established brand. Clinton's tears before the New Hampshire primary encouraged people to look at her in a new way.

Clinton's management style is old-school hands-on where direction comes from the top down, says University of Denver business professor Jim O'Toole -- like Wal-Mart, where Clinton served on the board of directors for six years.

Obama, on the other hand, is a hands-off, delegate authority manager, says O'Toole -- more like an Internet start-up. These differing management styles mirror a debate that has been taking place at business schools over which style is more effective.

"Young people are comfortable with the flannel-shirted software CEOs," says O'Toole. "A lot of older people are more comfortable with the General Motors approach."

Which style do you prefer? Steve Jobs or Sam Walton?

5:28 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post

 

Gallup Poll: Obama Increases Lead Over Clinton

In one of the first polls to come out since Sen. Barack Obama's comments about "bitter" Pennsylvanian voters "clinging" to religion and guns, The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll shows that Obama has narrowly increased his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, 50% to 40%.

"That 10-point lead matches Obama's best of the campaign, and even as the controversy has dominated the political airwaves, Obama's support remained strong in tracking interviews conducted on Saturday and Sunday. It is likely Clinton and Republican John McCain will continue to remind voters of the remarks, and the possibility remains that it could affect voters in the coming days, but so far they seem unaffected by the controversy."

In a general election, Obama leads Sen. John McCain 46% to 44%. Clinton leads McCain 46% to 45%

2:36 PM ET | 04-14-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post

 

How "Bitter" Are Voters About Obama Comments?