When George Bush ran for president in 2000 and 2004, he and Karl Rove, his political guru, had a very definite election plan that featured getting as many conservatives as possible to the polls.
But the Washington Times reports that Sen. John McCain knows that this strategy won't work for him, so he has taken a completely different route - trying to pick up as many independents and right-wing Democrats (the return of Reagan Democrats?) as he can.
"This time, we are working to get a larger share than normal of independents and conservative Democrats, mainly because our own base is narrower than four years ago," said McCain campaign senior adviser Charles Black, who has been a part of every GOP presidential campaign since Ronald Reagan's nomination run in 1976 .... Noting there are more Democrats and independents up for grabs than in recent elections, Frank J. Donatelli, the Republican National Committee's deputy chairman, says Mr. McCain needs a center-right coalition to win, just as the Democrat will need a center-left coalition. "We intend to beat them to the center," he said.
Noting there are more Democrats and independents up for grabs than in recent elections, Frank J. Donatelli, the Republican National Committee's deputy chairman, says Mr. McCain needs a center-right coalition to win, just as the Democrat will need a center-left coalition. "We intend to beat them to the center," he said.
This strategy has some dangers, the Times reports. His more centrist positions on some issues will "inevitably will rub orthodox conservatives the wrong way and worsen his relations with them."
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times reports that supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul don't look all that eager to switch their support to McCain. (Paul is still officially running for president, don't forget.)
Continue reading "McCain Seeks Center-Right Voters, Annoying Conservatives" »
9:27 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (20) | e-mail post
Toby Harnden, the U.S. editor/reporter/blogger for Britain's The Daily Telegraph has put together a list of the 50 most influential pundits in the United States. This kind of stuff is often inside baseball, and the only people who really care about it are the pundits themselves. (Helps in contract talks.) You might call it an ordering of the usual suspects.
The Telegraph described their list this way:
As with our previous lists of the 100 most influential conservatives and the 100 most influential liberals, we leaned towards those with the most potential to influence events over the coming months rather than simply the stalwarts of past years -- though many on our list fall into both categories. While being opinionated did not guarantee consideration, having strong opinions was a key factor. Many important journalists have been left out because they portray themselves as objective and seek to inform rather than persuade.
While being opinionated did not guarantee consideration, having strong opinions was a key factor. Many important journalists have been left out because they portray themselves as objective and seek to inform rather than persuade.
(Inform rather than persuade? ... what a concept!)
The most influential pundit? Karl Rove according to the Telegraph. (Point of order, your honor. Is Mr. Rove really a pundit? Or just a former political guru in-between consulting gigs?)
But let's make our own list. Which "pundit" influences your opinion the most? Or to boldly go where the Telegraph feared to tread, are there journalists or commentators who you believe aren't just trying to persuade you, but to help you make up your own mind? (The News Blog casts votes for Ron Elving and Ken Rudin.)
9:00 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post
Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up an important endorsement today from the Indianapolis Star, Indiana's largest newspaper. While the paper's editorial board praised both Clinton and her rival Sen. Barack Obama, board members felt that Clinton' experience was the deciding factor.
Obama offers an attractive vision for the way things could be. He speaks eloquently of hope and change. He connects with voters, many who formerly felt disenfranchised, on a level few political leaders have attained. Clinton offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are. She offers nuanced positions on how to address the war in Iraq, trade with China and economic expansion. Her depth of knowledge is remarkable. As impressive as Obama appears, he is still in his first term in the U.S. Senate, and only four years ago was serving as an Illinois state senator. His inexperience in high office is a liability. Clinton, in contrast, is well prepared for the rigors of the White House. She is tough, experienced and realistic about what can and cannot be accomplished on the world stage.
Clinton offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are. She offers nuanced positions on how to address the war in Iraq, trade with China and economic expansion. Her depth of knowledge is remarkable.
As impressive as Obama appears, he is still in his first term in the U.S. Senate, and only four years ago was serving as an Illinois state senator. His inexperience in high office is a liability.
Clinton, in contrast, is well prepared for the rigors of the White House. She is tough, experienced and realistic about what can and cannot be accomplished on the world stage.
The paper did say that Clinton had done more pandering to voters, particularly on the gas tax holiday idea. And the board pointed out that she was a part of her husband's "political machine, which earned a reputation for flattening opponents. That factor understandably gives many voters pause about whether another Clinton should serve as president."
But the paper went with Clinton because it sees America and the world in a tough place and that Clinton "is the better choice, based on her experience and grasp of major issues, to confront those challenges."
8:15 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post
A new daily tracking poll by Zogby International shows that Sen. Barack Obama seems to have regained his footing in North Carolina, and is giving his rival Sen. Hillary Clinton a run for her money in Indiana.
The poll, conducted with live operators, of 668 likely Democratic voters in North Carolina showed Obama with a 50% to 34% lead. A similar survey of 680 Indiana voters showed the two candidates tied at 42% each -- but with 16% saying they still have to make up their minds.
Here is the breakdown of the North Carolina polls:
"Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina--47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well--winning 44% support to Clinton's 37% backing."
And likewise for Indiana:
"Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama's hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women."
Here's how they conducted the poll (readers have been asking to see more about how these polls are done):
Zogby International commissioned a telephone survey of [Likely Democratic Primary Voters]. Approximately [30] questions are asked. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased voter registration lists. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR's approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies. Indiana N=680 MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender North Carolina N=668 MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender
Approximately [30] questions are asked. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased voter registration lists. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR's approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.
Indiana N=680 MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender
North Carolina N=668 MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender
6:50 AM ET | 05- 2-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post
Not to put too fine a point on it, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi more or less said to Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain today "You know what you can do with your gas tax holiday idea."
The Washington Post's The Trail blog reports that Pelosi said this afternoon that Congress will not consider an 18-cent gas tax holiday.
"There is no reason to believe any moratorium on the gas tax will be passed on to consumers. That's first and foremost," she said. "Second, it will defeat everything we've tried to do to lower the cost of oil," noting that Democrats have been trying to shift the nation to alternative fuel sources, not promote gasoline consumption.
That puts the kibosh on that. Clinton says she will return to the Senate to introduce her measure and that she'll have several co-sponsors. But without support in the House, it's all window dressing.
9:07 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post
Sen. Barack Obama is losing support among white-working class Democrats at an alarming speed. But his popularity with independents helps him make up lost ground. In a national poll of Democrats by the Pew Research Center, reported on All Things Considered, Obama leads Clinton 47% to 45% (although a month ago it was 49% to 39% for Obama).
But unlike other recent polls, the Pew poll shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain - Obama 50% to McCain 44% and Clinton 49% to McCain's 45%.
The president of the Pew Research Center, Andrew Kohut, told NPR's Robert Siegel that the Illinois senator's "slippage [is] powered by an even greater role of both race and class in the patterns of the answers."
"For instance, Clinton's lead among white Democrats who did not attend college rose from 10 points in March to 40 points in the current survey, which was based on phone interviews of 651 people from April 23-27. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points."
But Clinton has her problems too. She has made gains but the poll doesn't show that her image has improved in the eyes of voters. "In fact, in some respects, her image is worse than it was when she was 10 points behind," Kohut says.
The advantage that Clinton has among white working class voters is matched by Obama's popularity among African-Americans, college-educated workers and independents. Among black voters, Kohut says, Clinton's number resemble the kind of support -- or lack thereof -- that Republicans get from that community these days.
8:26 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post
A charity organization with ties to Hillary Clinton has come under criticism for running apparently illegal robo-calls in advance of next week's hotly contested Democratic primary in North Carolina. The group, Women's Voices Women Vote, says it's just trying to get single women registered to vote.
Last week, this automated robo-call went out in North Carolina.
"Hello. This is Lamont Williams. In the next few days, you will receive a voter registration packet in the mail. All you need to do is fill it out, sign it, date and return the application. Then you will be able to vote and make your voice heard. Please return your registration form when it arrives. Thank you."
But the deadline to register for the primary had already passed. And the call went to many registered voters -- people who already were expecting to vote in the presidential primary next Tuesday. The call and follow up mailings made many wonder whether they were registered for the primary or not.
This sounds like a classic example of voter suppression -- sowing confusion and driving down turn-out. And these calls seemed to be aimed at African American communities, places where Barack Obama is expected to win easily.
The group behind the calls is Women's Voices Women Vote. It's a 501-c-3 charity, and the robo-calls seem completely at odds with the group's usual, upbeat message.
Continue reading "N.C. Attorney General Says WVWV Robocalls Illegal" »
5:46 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post
This one sort of escaped much notice here in America.
Toby Harnden, the Washington-based reporter and blogger for England's The Daily Telegraph, has a rather interesting interview with former President Jimmy Carter that was published in the paper on Tuesday. In the interview, Carter (who hasn't 'officially' endorsed anyone yet) spoke glowingly of Sen. Barack Obama, and called on the party to decide on a winner by June 3rd.
"I don't see any reason at all to continue after June 3rd when we know who got the most [pledged] delegates, who got the most popular votes, who won the most states and so forth," said Carter, 83.
As Harnden writes, he even "sketched out the kind of inaugural address the first black United States president could deliver."
"If the first statement he made was while I'm president of the United States we will never torture another prisoner and while I'm President of the United States we will never go to war unless our own security is directly threatened...it would transform the image of the United States in the minds of many people around the world.
Carter, who is on a promotional tour for his new book about his mother, Lillian Carter, said his mother would be "delighted" with a black president, but just "pleased" with a woman president.
Here is the transcript of the entire interview.
5:15 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post
It's been a particularly unpopular idea - the gas tax holiday. Economists across the political spectrum think it's a bad idea. Yet Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to push the idea. (Although it has changed a bit in the past few days; it's not longer a "gas tax holiday" it's 'let the oil companies pay the gas tax over the summer" -- an idea the experts also say won 't work.)
So why is Clinton so intent on pursuing this idea? Leadership.
(Although Sen. McCain had the "idea" first. At least this time -- it's been a popular position for Republicans to take whenever gas prices do rise.)
Earlier today during a conference call, when asked why she continues to back the idea when it lacks support, Clinton campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson explained it this way: ""We believe that the presidency requires leadership. There are times when a president will take a position that a broad consensus of quote unquote experts will agree with, and there are times when a president will do something that, the group of experts quote unquote does not agree with.
"And you know, this is something that Senator Clinton believes is the right policy...she believes it's the right policy in the short term to help consumers who are struggling, and she has, as I said, a very comprehensive plan to deal with this in the long term as well. And she's going to continue to talk about this and continue to push for it. And I understand that there may be some people who disagree with it and of course they're entitled to disagree with it. You know, this is something that Senator Clinton believes is important. And presidents listen to advice, get advice, and then, and then act. And that is what Senator Clinton is doing.""
Marc Ambinder makes a good point at theAtlantic.com about listening to the two camps conference calls today: like "dipping into parallel universes."
2:58 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post
Sen. Barack Obama may be picking up the majority of superdelegates recently, but that doesn't mean that the Clinton campaign is giving up.
A few minutes ago the Clinton campaign sent to reporters a copy of an e-mail that they are sending to superdelegates (for some reason the Clinton camp calls them "automatic" delegates). The e-mail quotes a lot of recent polling data that argues that Clinton would be the best candidate to take on Republican presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain.
Some of it you've probably already heard this morning: the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll and the CBS/New York Times poll. Both show Clinton doing very well against McCain.
Perhaps the most persuasive part of their argument could be the new polling data from Quinnipiac. It shows that Clinton would beat McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, while Obama would only beat McCain in Pennsylvania.
Here is the text of the message:
Continue reading "Clinton Campaign Goes Hard After Superdelegates" »
1:32 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (19) | e-mail post
Sen. Barack Obama's recent problems do not seem to be bothering superdelegates, if the past few days are any indication. Obama has picked up five more superdelegates today and seven votes.
That vote difference comes because the first announcement today came from Joe Andrew who was a Clinton super who is now switching his vote to Obama. That's a two-vote swing. Add one to Obama and take one way from Clinton at the same time.
Then the Chicago Sun-Times reports that Obama will pick up three more Illinois superdelegates next week at the party's state convention.
And the Obama campaign just sent out an e-mail announcing that "Texas DNC Member John Patrick, who is also a 31-year member of the United Steelworkers (USW) as well as a Vice President of the Texas AFL/CIO, brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama to 249." {It's likely the three Illinois delegates are not being counted yet.]
Clinton has not picked up any new superdelegates today. --- UPDATE: Clinton has one. From Connecticut. John Olsen, president of the Connecticut AFL-CIO and a super-delegate.
AND MORE: Hillary gets four more supers from New York: New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, former Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields, New York Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli and New York Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo.
That's five each today.
(Tom Note: Mick is right, it's six votes not seven for Obama.)
12:29 PM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post
The News Blog covered this a few months ago when some conservative bloggers who didn't want to see Sen. John McCain as the Republican presidential nominee, were making noises about the fact that he was born in the Panama Canal Zone -- his father was stationed there -- and that meant he wasn't 'really' an American and thus couldn't run for president.
Codswallup. That's basically what the Senate said yesterday. The Senate passed a unanimous resolution affirming that McCain is indeed 100% American, "the kind of 'natural born' citizen the Founding Fathers determined could serve as president."
"There is no evidence of the intention of the framers or any Congress to limit the constitutional rights of children born to Americans serving in the military nor to prevent those children from serving as their country's president," the resolution said.
The resolution does not have the power of law. But its main authors, Democratic Senators Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont and Claire McCaskill of Missouri, both Democrats, wanted the Senate to take a clear stand on the issue.
10:37 AM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (17) | e-mail post
Conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh wants to fire up 'Operation Chaos' again. He is calling on his dittoheads in Indiana and North Carolina to go and vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton next Tuesday in the hopes of prolonging the Democratic presidential nomination race. Limbaugh has repeatedly said that the longer the race goes on, the better it is for Republicans and their presidential nominee Sen. John McCain.(Indiana and North Carolina have open primaries.)
Limbaugh had put the operation on hold -- oh, for about an entire day -- while he said he was considering if Obama had been done in by the recent Jeremiah Wright controversy. But after watching the "drive-bys" -- Limbaugh's dismissive term for what he calls the liberal media -- praise Obama's speech about Wright on Tuesday as "courageous," he thinks it's no time for a change in strategy.
As Jonathan Martin notes in Politico.com, if Clinton wins Indiana by, say one thousand votes, "this may actually be important."
9:05 AM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (26) | e-mail post
It's just one more superdelegate for Obama, but it's an important "get" for his campaign.
The Associated Press is reporting that Joe Andrew, who chaired the Democratic National Committee for two years while Bill Clinton was president, will announce today that he is switching his support in this year's campaign from Sen. Hillary Clinton to Sen. Barack Obama.
Andrew says the Obama camp didn' t ask him to switch, but he decided to do so after watching the way Obama handled two issues in recent days: his stand against the gas tax holiday and the way he has handled the most recent Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy.
Andrew said he was impressed with Obama's stand on principle against the tax holiday when the politically easy thing to do would have been to support it. And he liked the way Obama has dealt with the Wright controversy.
"He has shown such mettle under fire," Andrew told the AP. "The Jeremiah Wright controversy just reconfirmed for me, just as the gas tax controversy confirmed for me, that he is the right candidate for our party."
Andrew also told the Indianapolis Star that his wife, Ann, who has been a full-time volunteer for Clinton is also switching her support to Obama.
Andrew said he was also concerned about what the bruising battle was doing to his party.
"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point where it is now bad for the Democratic Party."
He also said that a vote to continue this process would be a vote to help John McCain.
Andrew told the Star that he hopes Obama picks a Clinton supporter as his running mate - such as Sen. Evan Bayh, national co-chairman of Clinton's campaign, to help unite thte party.
The Former DNC chairman will make his announcement today in his home town of Indianapolis. He said he also plans to send a letter to remaining uncommitted superdelegates explaining his switch. -------- UPDATE: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Obama will pick up three more Illinois superdelegates next week when the Democratic Party of Illinois meet next week to finish filling out the delegate slate:"Mayor [Richard] Daley --he shares strategist David Axelrod with Obama and brother Bill, the former Commerce Secretary is on the Obama team; Illinois House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie (D-Chicago), a Hyde Parker who lives near the Obamas'; and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger."
8:04 AM ET | 05- 1-2008 | permalink | comments (15) | e-mail post
The Obama campaign has accused an independent group supporting Hillary Clinton of violating election laws. The Obama camp wants an investigation by the Federal Election Commission or the Justice Department.
The American Leadership Project has spent several hundred thousand dollars for this attack ad in Indiana:
The project has run 4 TV ads this year -- two attacking Obama, two promoting Clinton.
Obama campaign lawyer Bob Bauer says that takes the group over the line into illegal territory. He says the Federal Election Commission set the standard in 2006 with cases against Swift Boat Veterans and other so-called 527 groups.
"There is no chance that ALP can credibly argue that it didn't know it was violating the law," says Bauer.
Lawyers for the American Leadership Project say that it can exist, legally, as a 527 group. They say it's concerned about issues and is not explicitly calling for Clinton to win the nomination.
-- Peter Overby
5:58 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post
Survey says ... gas tax holiday is just not a good idea.
Other than Sen. John McCain and Sen. Hillary Clinton, it seems to be heard to find anyone who thinks that a gas tax holiday is a good idea.
Former Clinton Energy Secretary Federico Peña released a statement via the Obama campaign today that said " ...a gas tax holiday would save the average family only about 30 cents a day. It's designed to win elections, not fix our energy problems."
Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter is pretty blunt. He describes this proposal as "the most irresponsible policy idea of the year--an idea that actually could aid the terrorists. What's worse, both of them know that suspending the federal gas tax this summer is a terrible pander, and yet they're pushing it anyway for crass political advantage."
New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman was equally as cutting.
"It is great to see that we finally have some national unity on energy policy," he wrote. "Unfortunately, the unifying idea is so ridiculous, so unworthy of the people aspiring to lead our nation, it takes your breath away ... This is not an energy policy. This is money laundering: we borrow money from China and ship it to Saudi Arabia and take a little cut for ourselves as it goes through our gas tanks. What a way to build our country."
Yesterday Times columnist Paul Krugman (who has been accused by many Obama supporters of being a Clinton supporter) said he didn't like the idea either:" ... John McCain has a really bad idea on gasoline, Hillary Clinton is emulating him (but with a twist that makes her plan pointless rather than evil), and Barack Obama, to his credit, says no."
Sam Stein of the Huffington Post called economists of every political ideology he could find and not a single one supported the gas tax holiday idea.
Then today in the Washington Post The Trail column, Perry Bacon Jr. writes that "Clinton aides think that even if the measure [gas tax holiday] is a limited way to reduce gas prices, it allows the candidate to bash oil companies and cast her opponent against an idea that has political appeal."
4:44 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (29) | e-mail post
Women's Voices Women Vote told the News Blog this afternoon that it is the source of robocalls in North Carolina that have, according to the The Institute of Southern Studies Facing South blog, "spread misleading voter information and sown confusion and frustration among North Carolina residents over the last week..."
Women's Voices Women Vote is a Washington D.C. non-profit organization that works to register unmarried women to vote. Communications Director Sarah Johnson says that unmarried women are less likely to vote than their "married sisters."
So as part of a 24-state mailing campaign, according to Johnson, Women's Voices helped send out voter registration packages in the mail. Women just need to fill out the forms and send them back by mail to be registered to vote.
Johnson said they also made automated phone calls to voters in North Carolina when they had the person's number to tell them about the registration packages.
Sounds innocent enough, right? Only problem is that the deadline for mailing in voter registration forms in the mail has already passed in North Carolina. And those robocalls? Johnson confirmed that the calls didn't bother to mention that the deadline had passed and that the forms were only for the fall election. Nor did they identify Women's Voices as the source of the call. The calls instead came from a "Lamont Williams" which Johnson told the News Blog is just an automated voice.
"We do see there this is causing confusion and we completely apologize for the confusion," said Johnson. Johnson says that in the future, any phone calls will contain correct voter information and the source of the calls.
But Facing South alleges there is more to this situation that a simple mistake in timing.
Continue reading "DC Non-Profit Confirms It is Making N.C. Robocalls" »
3:31 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post
OK, get out your scorecard.
We blogged about this a bit earlier today, but the superdelegate endorsements are coming in fast and furious.
Sen. Barack Obama has picked up the endorsements of three Democratic members of the House of Representatives today: Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley, Indiana Rep. Baron Hill and California rep. Lois Capps. That makes it 77-77 in House endorsements for Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. Obama leads in the Senate 18-13.
Meanwhile Sen. Clinton picked up the endorsements of Pennsylvania superdelegate and AFL-CIO biggie Bill George, along with Puerto Rico's Luisette Cabanas.
Since his loss in Ohio, Obama has picked up 41 superdelegates, Clinton ten. Since his loss in Pennsylvania, Obama has picked up ten supers and Clinton six. There are 235 left to publicly declare support for either candidate.
Clinton leads 262 superdelegates (only, not overall total) to 242.
1:24 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post
FactCheck.org takes a look at the new Democratic National Committee ad about Sen. John McCain's statement that a 100-year U.S. presence in Iraq would be "fine with me." And FactCheck finds that the DNC leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to getting the facts straight.
Here is the ad:
Here's what FactCheck had to say:
The clear implication is that if McCain is elected, we can expect to be battling in Iraq for many decades to come. But the admakers cut off the rest of McCain's response, which provides some badly needed context: McCain, town hall meeting, Jan. 3: Maybe a hundred. ... We've been in Japan for 60 years. We've been in South Korea for 50 years or so. That would be fine with me, as long as Americans, as long as Americans are not being injured or harmed or wounded or killed. It's fine with me and I hope it would be fine with you if we maintain a presence in a very volatile part of the world.
McCain, town hall meeting, Jan. 3: Maybe a hundred. ... We've been in Japan for 60 years. We've been in South Korea for 50 years or so. That would be fine with me, as long as Americans, as long as Americans are not being injured or harmed or wounded or killed. It's fine with me and I hope it would be fine with you if we maintain a presence in a very volatile part of the world.
"McCain has said quite clearly that he considers Democratic proposals for a quick withdrawal from Iraq to be 'surrender,' and so deadly fighting could well continue longer under a President McCain than under either a President Hillary Clinton or a President Obama. But what the DNC ad conveys is the opposite of what McCain said."
12:30 PM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post
NBC is trumpeting its "exclusive" interview with Sen. Barack Obama this coming Sunday on Meet the Press. Obama will be host Tim Russert's only guest for the entire hour.
It's fair to say that this is a decisive moment for Obama. If he comes off looking confident and in control, it will help him a lot in Indiana, North Carolina and with the superdelegates. If he looks bad, or too defensive or too evasive, it could hurt him badly.
11:42 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post
John McCain's economic adviser believes in price signals.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin spoke approvingly during a conference call Tuesday about how the Safeway supermarket chain lowered its health care costs by sending a strong price signal to employees. In order to encourage workers to take advantage of preventive care, Safeway made it free. No co-pays. No deductibles, for things like smoking cessation and nutrition courses.
Just as lowering prices helps to encourage healthy behavior, raising prices (with a cigarette tax, for example, or higher health insurance premiums for smokers) can help discourage unhealthy behavior.
"There's a good role for public awareness of what contributes to the problem," Holtz-Eakin said.
That's what prices do.
So it's a little puzzling that McCain wants to interfere with the price signal energy markets have been sending.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of crude oil has risen about $20 per barrel. And the price of gasoline has jumped about 50 cents a gallon.
Motorists got the message. According to the Energy Department, demand for gasoline fell more than 6% between January and February, and demand for all finished petroleum products dropped 8.5%.
Instead of simply allowing those market forces to keep working, McCain has proposed lifting the federal gasoline tax during the busy summer driving season from Memorial Day to Labor Day. And now Hillary Clinton has agreed.
Americans are addicted to oil, much of it imported. As McCain himself points out, this contributes to our trade deficit and some of the money we send overseas for oil goes to people who don't have the United States' best interests at heart.
The long term solutions to this are greater fuel efficiency and alternative fuels. The short term solution is to drive less.
So what kind of signal does McCain's proposed lifting of the gas tax send?
-- Scott Horsley
10:51 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post
Polls in Indiana appear to be all over the place.
A Public Policy Polling survey gave Clinton an 8-point lead, 50%-42%. They interviewed 1388 likely Democratic primary voters with a +/- of 2.2%. But PPP also uses robo-polling, a method which some experts considered not as accurate as operator-initiated calls (being asked questions by "live" humans).
On the other hand, an independent survey (done with live operators) for Howey Politics Indiana conducted by Gauge Market Research shows Obama with a 47% to 45% lead over Clinton. But this survey has a 4.1% +/- margin of error, so it's basically a tie. And this survey was conducted before Rev. Jeremiah Wright's "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more" tour.
Real Clear Politics poll average has Clinton with a 2.2% lead.
9:42 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post
It increasingly looks like the battle on Capitol Hill for the support of Democratic superdelegates is winding down, and that Sen. Barack Obama may be coming out on top.
Politico.com reports that "While more than 80 Democrats in the House and Senate have yet to state their preferences in the race for the Democratic nomination, sources said Tuesday that most of them have already made up their minds and have told the campaigns where they stand."
As a result the constant pressuring of these superdelegates has slacked off. But as Clinton supporter New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez puts it, "Right now, it's about making sure everyone still feels loved and wanted."
So who are the superdelegates supporting? Neither Sen. Clinton's nor Sen. Obama's camp are saying anything, but Obama supporter Sen. Claire McCaskill says it's her guy.
Obama currently holds an 18-13 lead among committed superdelegates in the Senate, while Clinton holds a 77-74 lead in the House. Asked which way the committed-but-unannounced superdelegates are leaning, McCaskill -- who has endorsed Obama -- said: "James Brown would say, 'I Feel Good.'"
But Clinton spokesman Phil Singer says hold your horses there, Sen. McCaskill. "Considering the rough patch Sen. Obama is going through, it's understandable that Sen. McCaskill would want to change the subject, but her observations don't jibe with what automatic delegates are actually saying," he said. ----- UPDATE: No sooner did we post this piece when we received an e-mail from the Obama camp announcing that "An aide to U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, D-Iowa, says he will announce his endorsement of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Wednesday."
That makes the House 77-75 for Clinton.
AND MORE: Clinton picks up another superdelegate too, but not from Congress. Pennsylvania Superdelegate Bill George announced his support for Hillary Clinton today.
Meanwhile, Obama gets another member of the House of Representatives. The Louisville Courier-Journal reports that Indiana 9th District Rep. Baron Hill, a previously uncommitted Democratic superdelegate, is endorsing presidential candidate Barack Obama today.
So its 77-76 in the House. Sen. McCaskill's prediction is looking better.
8:59 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (8) | e-mail post
Hey, John Edwards, now that you've been knocked out of the Democratic presidential race, and both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama are hounding you to endorse one of them before next Tuesday's primary, what are you going to do?
Go to Disney World!
Yes, the Raleigh News and Observer reports that former Sen. Edwards has quietly left the state for a family vacation in at Walt Disney World in Florida, "fueling speculation that he's not going to endorse either Democratic presidential candidate before the May 6 primary."
But the paper notes that Edwards has pulled this before. In 2004 he took his family on a Disney vacation, leading many to believe he was out of the running for Sen. John Kerry's VP pick. But when no one (as in the media) was watching, he flew to D.C. to meet with Kerry.
Probably this time he just wants to escape media questions about who he is going to support.
8:26 AM ET | 04-30-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post
Sen. Hillary Clinton will not be happy with this.
Democrats in Michigan have sent a letter to the Democratic National Committee that proposes a new solution to the battle over whether or not they should by allowed to seat their delegates at the national convention. Under their solution, Clinton would pick up a 10-seat advantage in Michigan, with Clinton getting 69 pledged delegates to 59 for Barack Obama.
The letter, sent by Sen. Carl Levin, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick,UAW President Ron Gettelfinger, and DNC Member Debbie Dingell calls on Clinton, Obama and the DNC to sign on to the proposal.
The Obama camp immediately said "we'll look into it." It's not the perfect solution for them, but it's close. Only allowing Clinton to pick up 10 delegates really won't make much of a dent in Obama's pledged delegate lead. That's why this solution still may not fly - it won't make the Clinton camp happy. And DNC chairman Howard Dean has said that both camps have to agree on a solution or else it will go to the credentials committee to work it all out.
Here is the letter:
Continue reading "Michigan Backs Down A Bit, Proposes New Solution" »
5:26 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post
Sen. Barack Obama Tuesday said he was outraged by comments made by his former Pastor Jeremiah Wright.
"I am outraged by the comments that were made and saddened by the spectacle that we saw yesterday," Obama told reporters at a news conference.
Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com says that Obama aides told him that Obama was deeply angry at what Wright said at the National Press Club, and insisted that he hold a second press conference immediately.
Judging by his square jaw and his posture -- rigid -- and his tone of voice -- elegiac and sad at points, and hard and resolute at others, Obama felt aggrieved and disrespected, especially by Wright's implication that Obama's speech on racial politics in Philadelphia was mere politics. "I want to use this press conference to make people absolutely clear that obviously whatever relationship I had with Rev. Wright has changed, he said. "I don't think he showed much concern for me ... and what we are trying to do in this campaign." "My reaction has more to do with what I want this campaign to be about.... in some ways, what Rev. Wright said yesterday directly contradicts everything that I've done during my life. It contradicts how i was raise and the setting in which I was raised; it contradicts my decision to pursue a career of public service. It contradicts the issues that I've worked on politically."
"My reaction has more to do with what I want this campaign to be about.... in some ways, what Rev. Wright said yesterday directly contradicts everything that I've done during my life. It contradicts how i was raise and the setting in which I was raised; it contradicts my decision to pursue a career of public service. It contradicts the issues that I've worked on politically."
Here's the video of the press conference:
But as Ambinder notes, the cable news media is already practicing "psychological pornography" analyzing thoughts behind the thinking.
3:30 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (18) | e-mail post
Arizona Senator John McCain visited a Tampa, Florida cancer center today, and talked up his plan to encourage a more competitive individual market for health insurance.
McCain called the lifesaving care at Tampa's Moffitt Cancer Center an inspiration. The Republican presidential hopeful says the best of American health care should be available to everyone no matter where they work or how much money they have. Too often, he says, the health care system falls short of that goal. McCain has proposed an overhaul that's designed to help more people to buy their own insurance, rather than getting it through an employer or doing without.
"The health plan you chose would be as good as any that an employer could choose for you. It would be yours and your family's health-care plan, and yours to keep. When families are informed about medical choices, they are more capable of making their own decisions, less likely to choose the most expensive and often unnecessary options, and are more satisfied with their choices"
Proponents say having individuals shop for health care would create more competition and lower costs. McCain also proposed tax credits to subsidize the private insurance and letting customers shop for insurance across state lines.
Critics warn those individual policies could be too expensive for older people and those with serious medical conditions. They also say shopping for health care would be fine for young, healthy people, but provide little protection for the sick and elderly.
3:16 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (11) | e-mail post
Last week we brought you Sen. Obama, today we bring you Sen. Hillary Clinton talking to the editorial board of the Indianapolis Star.
Continue reading "Indianapolis Star Interviews Sen. Hillary Clinton" »
3:00 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
So just how effective would a break from the gas tax be for Americans this summer? Sens. John McCain and Hillary Clinton say it would be a big help. In Greensboro, N.C. today, Clinton said "I would also consider having a gas tax holiday this summer because we're going to drive a lot of small independent truckers out of business." President Bush agrees with Clinton and McCain.
Sen. Barack Obama, meanwhile, says its all just a mirage, that most Americans would at most get a $30 break - about half a tank.
So what's the real scoop on the gas tax?
Well, psychologically it might give people a sense of a break, but most economists believe that Obama is closer to the reality here. The real bottom line is that a gas tax holiday might actually lead to an increase in gas prices.
Here the argument that most economists are making:
* Gasoline is subject to supply and demand. It's pretty simple economics. If the price is lower, people will drive more. Which means that oil refineries will have to try and produce more but industry experts say refineries are already working at full capacity to meet the current demand. There won't be enough to go around and that means that prices will rise in order to dampen demand. And as Prof. Edinaldo Tebaldi, who teaches international economics and trade, told the Providence Journal, gasoline is in international demand; regardless of what we do here, demand from overseas will keep the price high.
Continue reading "Economists: Gas Tax Holiday No Break from High Prices" »
12:28 PM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post
Most people have been waiting for the name of Sen. Barack Obama to surface during the trial of Chicago developer and political fixer Antoin "Tony" Rezko. (And it did recently, when it appeared in connection with a party held at Rezko's home in April of 2004 on behalf of Nadhmi Auchi, a British citizen appealing a fraud conviction in France. The Swamp writes that Rezko was allegedly trying to partner up with Auchi and may have been using an Obama appearance to demonstrate clout. Obama doesn't deny that he might have been there, but says he doesn't remember the event.)
But the names who have been attracting the most attention over the past few days have been former Bush political guru Karl Rove and former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.
Last week, prosecutors told the judge in the Rezko trial that it has a witness [former Illinois state official Ali Ata] that would testify that he has a conversation with Rezko where it was alleged that Karl Rove was working to remove the Chicago U.S. attorney, Patrick Fitzgerald. As Newsweek notes, the revelation immediately produced reverberations in Washington.
Democrats in Congress now want to question Ata. They believe he can help buttress their theory that Rove played a key role in discussions that led to the firings of U.S. attorneys at the Justice Department in 2006. The House Judiciary Committee "intends to investigate the facts and circumstances alleged in this testimony," panel chairman Rep. John Conyers of Michigan said in a statement to Newsweek.
Ata will allegedly testify that he has a conversation with Rezko where he was told that Bob Kjellander, a prominent GOP state lobbyist, was talking to Rove about getting rid of Fitzgerald.
Continue reading "Names to Watch at Rezko Trial: Rove and Hastert" »
10:49 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post
The New York Times has an interesting take on this year's main controversy and how it has played out over the past few days. While pundits are saying that Wright's fiery appearances at the NAACP meeting in New York and at the National Press Club will hurt Obama, the Times believes they may help him.
"Cable news commentators have focused on the damage the spectacle inflicted on the embattled Obama campaign. And while Mr. Wright's behavior may not have been politic for Mr. Obama, it was politics as usual for the television age. In at least one way, Mr. Wright's star turn may have helped defuse his importance in the long run. The pastor who was thrust upon the public consciousness as a caricature of the angry black man emerged after an exhaustive series of performances as a more familiar television persona: a voluble, vain and erudite entertainer, a born televangelist who quotes Ralph Ellison as well as the Bible and mixes highfalutin academic trope with salty street talk."
Thoughts? Have Wright's 'in-your-face' appearances actually made it easier for Obama to get distance from him that if Wright had just stayed out of sight?
9:51 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (26) | e-mail post
Sen. John McCain is planning to flesh out his ideas on health care coverage today, so we'll have more details later.
But until, the Indianapolis Star's offers a concise guide to the three-remaining candidates' health care plans, based on what we know so far. Obama and Clinton have been arguing for several months about whose plan covers more Americans. McCain really differs from the Democrats in that he doesn't believe in universal health-care coverage of any kind. (Elizabeth Edwards has been a consistent critic of McCain's health care plan, which she has called "a version of what President Bush is trying to do.")
You can find the Star's short-hand guide here.
Here's McCain's latest health care ad:
7:55 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post
Polls are like the weather. If you don't like what you see, wait a couple of days and something new will come along. Sometimes you only have to wait a few hours.
Late yesterday Zogby released a poll that finds almost the exact opposite of the AP-Ipsos poll which showed Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 9-point lead over Sen. John McCain. The Zogby poll shows McCain with a 10-point lead over Clinton 44%-34% (with 16 percent undecided). But he trails Sen. Barack Obama by three points, 45%-42% (with 8 percent undecided).
But it's the surrounding details that are interesting. For instance, in the McCain-Clinton battle Ralph Nader and Bob Barr received 3% and 4% respectively. But in the Obama-McCain matchup, Nader drops to 1% and Barr to 3%.
Even more interesting, the poll puts a twist on previous polls that have shown that more Clinton supporters would vote for McCain if Obama was the nominee than vice-versa.
The online poll, conducted April 25-28, 2008, shows that Obama retains 80% support among Democrats, compared to just 66% of Democrats who said they will back Clinton against McCain, the survey shows. Against Obama, McCain wins 11% of the Democratic support, while he wins 10% support against Clinton. [This would seem to indicate than many Democrats just won't vote --or might voter for Nader -- if In the McCain-Clinton race, 12% of Democrats said they were undecided, compared to just 4% of Democrats who were undecided in the McCain-Obama race.
The survey included 7,653 likely voters nationwide. Zogby uses interactive online polls, which some experts say aren't as reliable as operator-based phone calls to respondents, but Zogby believes otherwise. Zogby says there is only a +/- of 1.1% on the poll.
7:30 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post
It seems the Republicans are changing their minds about who would be the tougher candidate to face in the fall. Rep. Tom Cole, the GOP's campaign chief now says Sen. Hillary Clinton would be the tougher candidate for Republicans to face in the fall, rather than Sen. Barack Obama.
"I think he is the weaker (Democratic) candidate," Cole told reporters Monday. Obama "is by any definition very liberal, to the left of Hillary Clinton, in a center-right country," Cole said. "That is very, very helpful to us."
It's an interesting change, but it also begs the question, why is he saying it?
Marc Ambinder of theAtlantic.com thing Cole is "attempting a fumbling jijitsu move by luring the Democrats into a false sense of remorse about almost nominating Obama because Obama, in fact, would be the more difficult candidate."
"Indeed, Democratic superdelegates might actually pay attention to what Tom Cole says. Or he could be telling the truth. I suspect that the actual difference in drag between Clinton, once nominated, and Obama, once nominated, would be fairly minimal, perhaps only a few knots' worth of headwind. In any event, the Democrats are likely to pick up House seats, so even assuming that Cole is telling the truth, what we're debating here is the size of the Democratic margin over Republicans."
5:17 AM ET | 04-29-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post
Last week NPR's Peter Overby reported on how Sen. John McCain had gotten a special deal on Rosewood Hall in Homewood, Alabama for a fundraiser. Mayor Barry McCulley, who had arranged the special deal on the hall (about one-quarter of its normal price),said he was just trying to get people to use the hall on a Monday night, normally a slow time.
Democrats complained, however, them weren't able to get a similar deal. (McCulley is not a Republican.)
But Peter e-mailed tonight to pass along this news:
Discount, new low rate or whatever it was, the McCain campaign won't get it. Homewood Mayor McCulley said Monday that he was wrong in letting McCain's campaign pay a reduced fee for its fundraiser at Rosewood Hall, and he's asked the campaign to pay the original cost. "Short of that," he wrote in a press release, "I will find a way to pay the difference myself." Serious Straight Talk Express here. And McCulley never used the phrases "I regret the appearance" or "mistakes were made."
"Short of that," he wrote in a press release, "I will find a way to pay the difference myself." Serious Straight Talk Express here. And McCulley never used the phrases "I regret the appearance" or "mistakes were made."
Guess times must have been hot for the mayor in Homewood.
6:55 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post
Sen. Barack Obama picked up the endorsement of another superdelegate today. New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman cited Obama's "ability to rise above the issues that divide us, end the war in Iraq, bring universal health care, and make America energy independent."
Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that a source close to North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley says the governor will endorse Sen. Hillary Clinton tomorrow. Easley would be just the second superdelegate from North Carolina to endorse Clinton. Six of the state's 17 superdelegates have endorsed Obama.
Earlier today, Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean repeated his demand that superdelegates make up their minds by June 3.
6:05 PM ET | 04-28-2008 | permalink | comments (30) | e-mail post
Two polls out today show just how tight the race has become between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.
The Gallup Daily Tracking polls has Obama up by a point, 47% to 46%, but that's basically a tie when you factor in the margin of error of error of +/- 3 percent. It's also close in a contest with Sen. John McCain, with Clinton leading by 3 points, 47% to 44% and Obama and McCain tied at 45%.
An Associated Press-Ipsos poll has good news for Clinton. It shows her beating McCain in a matchup 50% to 41% (which plays to her "electability" argument) while Obama leads McCain 46% to 44%.
The interesting question that these polls seem to ask is, with everything that has been thrown at Clinton and particularly Obama in the past few weeks -- sniper fire in Bosnia, Rev. Weight, Bill Clinton's comments about race, Obama's bitter remarks -- why is McCain still either behind (in one case signifcantly) or tied with his Democratic rivals? This may be why some Republicans are concerned that as well as he has done, McCain could have problems in the fall.
"The truth of the matter is if the race becomes a race
